智通财经APP获悉，美国商品贸易逆差在3月份出人意料地扩大至历史新高，因企业继续抢在关税生效 前进口商品，这预示美国第一季度经济产出数据可能将受到重大拖累，单月进口规模激增可能是美国企 业在关税生效前确保商品和材料供应的最后一搏。最近的预测数据显示美国经济疲软之势难以避免，许 多经济学家大幅下调了美国2025年GDP增速预期，一些经济学家甚至预测美国经济在2025年将陷入衰退 境地。 美国商务部周二公布的数据显示，3月份美国商品贸易赤字环比意外增长9.6%，达到1620亿美元。由于 进口在美国国内生产总值(GDP)核算中被计为负项，这一数据暗示美国政府将于美东时间周三公布的一 季度GDP初值将比经济学家们此前的普遍预期更为疲弱甚至有可能陷入负增长，并且已经促使多位经济 学家在创纪录的逆差数据公布后下调第一季度美国GDP以及2025年美国GDP预估。 当天公布的另一份报告显示，特朗普政府的关税政策同样令美国企业与普通家庭对经济前景和财务状况 的看法大幅恶化。美国谘商会(Conference Board)公布的统计数据显示，4月美国消费者们对未来六个月 的预期指数降至2011年以来最低水平。 美国商品贸易逆差扩大 ...

lucky-photographer Listen below or on the go on Apple Podcasts and Spotify Press secretary calls notion of Amazon listing tariff costs ‘hostile and political.’ AMZN denies the plan. (0:15) Trade deficit balloons in March, could lead to GDP drop. (1:46) Consumer confidence almost at recession level. (2:56) This is an abridged transcript of the podcast. Companies looking to break out the cost of tariffs for their customers could face the ire of the White House. Amazon was forced to deny something it h ...

Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly provide an investment rating for the industry discussed [1]. Core Insights - The report highlights a significant pullback in new export orders in countries affected by tariffs, particularly Canada and Mexico, with a historical correlation indicating that a 1-point decline in the S&P new manufacturing export orders PMI component predicts a 0.75 percentage point hit to year-on-year export growth [2]. - The April flash PMIs indicate mixed trends in developed markets (DM), with the DM composite flash PMI falling by 1.1 points to 50.7, driven by a decline in the services component [2]. - The report notes that the Euro area composite flash PMI declined to 50.1 in April, slightly below consensus expectations, with services leading the decline [4]. Summary by Sections Global Trade Data - The report compiles a data calendar for upcoming global business surveys and trade data releases, emphasizing the importance of country-specific export data as indicators of how tariffs are reshaping global trade [2]. - Early releases of trade data have shown a correlation with US trade flows, with expectations of a pullback due to tariff implementation [2]. US Economics - The report indicates a growth slowdown, with a lowered Q1 GDP tracking estimate by 0.6 percentage points to -0.2%, influenced by mixed signals from housing and durable goods orders [3]. - It discusses the potential impact of Canadian elections on GDP growth, with increased spending under a Liberal government expected to raise GDP levels by 0.6-0.7% over the next four years [3]. European Economics - The report notes that long-term inflation expectations in the University of Michigan survey remained at 4.4%, with consumer sentiment significantly below earlier levels [4]. - The European Central Bank (ECB) delivered a 25 basis point cut and signaled concerns about growth, with expectations for further cuts in the coming months [4]. Asia/EM Economics - The report assesses the disinflationary impact of tariff-induced global supply reallocation, estimating a potential downside of 1.5% to the price level of core goods [5]. - It highlights the expected impact of US tariffs on Chinese exports and anticipates a focus on easing measures from Chinese leadership in response to economic pressures [5]. GDP Forecast Tracker - The report provides GDP growth forecasts for various regions, with the US expected to grow at 1.2% in 2025, while the Euro area is projected at 0.7% [6]. - China’s growth is forecasted at 4.0% for 2025, reflecting a slowdown compared to previous years [6].

2025 年 4 月 28 日 本周热点前瞻 2025-04-28 陶金峰 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0000372 邮箱：taojinfeng@gtht.com 4月29日 欧元区4月经济景气指数 点评：4月29日17:00，欧盟统计局将公布欧元区4月经济景气指数和工业景气指数。预期欧元区4月经济景 气指数为94.5，前值为95.2；预期欧元区4月工业景气指数为-10.7，前值为-10.6。如果欧元区4月经济景气指 数和工业景气指数均小幅低于前值，则将轻度抑制有色金属、原油及相关商品期货价格上涨，但是将轻度有助 于黄金和白银期货价格上涨。 声明 本报告的观点和信息仅供风险承受能力合适的投资者参考。本报告难以设置访问权限，若给您造成不便，敬 请谅解。若您并非风险承受能力合适的投资者，请勿阅读、订阅或接收任何相关信息。本报告不构成具体业务或 产品的推介，亦不应被视为相应金融衍生品的投资建议。请您根据自身的风险承受能力自行作出投资决定并自主 承担投资风险，不应凭借本报告进行具体操作。 【本周重点关注】 4 月 29 日 22:00，美国谘商会将公布 4 月谘商会消费者信心指数。 4 月 30 日 09:30，国家统计 ...

Economic Overview - In the first quarter, Zhuhai's GDP reached 112.09 billion, with a year-on-year growth of 4.0%, indicating a stable economic start [1] - The primary industry added value was 1.64 billion, growing by 4.0%, while the secondary industry decreased by 0.6% to 44.94 billion, and the tertiary industry increased by 7.1% to 65.51 billion, becoming the main driver of economic growth [1] Tertiary Industry Performance - The tertiary industry's growth of 7.1% was primarily driven by significant increases in information transmission, software, and IT services (21.6%), cultural, sports, and entertainment (8.3%), and leasing and business services (7.9%) [1] - From January to February, the revenue of large-scale service industries reached 27.07 billion, up by 10.4%, with internet and related services, software and IT services, cultural, sports, and entertainment, and leasing and business services showing revenue growth of 114.5%, 32.2%, 12.3%, and 9.5% respectively [1] Retail and Consumption - The total retail sales of social consumer goods in Zhuhai for the first quarter reached 23.86 billion, a year-on-year increase of 5.7%, driven by the "old-for-new" policy [2] - Retail sales of household appliances surged by 84.7%, while automotive consumption showed weakness, with retail sales of automotive goods declining by 3.5% to 2.694 billion, accounting for 22.9% of total retail sales [2] Foreign Trade - Zhuhai's foreign trade performance was notable, with total import and export reaching 81.12 billion, a year-on-year increase of 15.7%, driven by a 26.5% increase in imports and an 11.2% increase in exports [2] - The number of foreign trade enterprises exceeded 3,000, marking an 8.8% increase, with significant growth in trade with the EU (21.8%), ASEAN (6.1%), and the Middle East (39.4%) [2] - Exports of electromechanical products reached 37.48 billion, growing by 13.1%, accounting for 68.6% of total exports, with notable increases in home appliances (6.4%), electronic components (18.1%), computers and parts (70.1%), and lithium batteries (122.3%) [2] Primary Industry Insights - The primary industry added value grew by 4.0%, reflecting accelerated agricultural modernization and significant achievements in marine ranching [3] - The total output value of agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry, and fishery increased by 5.1%, with fishery output accounting for nearly 80% [3] Secondary Industry Analysis - The secondary industry saw a 0.6% decline in added value, although high-tech sectors experienced growth, with industrial added value increasing by 4.8% [3] - Key sectors showed varied performance: precision machinery manufacturing increased by 41.7%, electronic information by 10.1%, and petrochemical by 9.2%, while biomedicine and home appliance sectors faced declines of 11.4% and 2.3% respectively [3] Investment Trends - Fixed asset investment decreased by 40.5%, although the decline narrowed by 5.9 percentage points compared to January-February, with industrial technological transformation investment achieving a positive growth of 5.6% supported by equipment renewal policies [3]

到昨天（4月25日），全国31个省份的一季度经济运行情况全部发布。其中21个省份达到或超过GDP预 期增长目标，经济大省更是普遍超预期，表明今年全国经济开局良好。与上年同期相比，各省份的GDP 总量排名总体稳定，上海、辽宁、四川3省市的排位上升，河南、湖南、安徽、重庆、云南的排位下 降。（一财） ...

Economic Growth - In Q1, China's GDP grew by 5.4%, exceeding Bloomberg's consensus estimate of 5.0%[3] - Nominal GDP growth was recorded at 4.6%, consistent with Q4 of the previous year[3] - Trade surplus contributed 2.2 percentage points to nominal GDP growth, up from 1.9 percentage points in Q4[3] Industrial Performance - Industrial value-added growth in March rebounded to 7.7%, up from 5.9% in January-February, surpassing expectations[8] - For Q1, industrial value-added growth was 6.5%, an increase from 6.2% in December[8] - Key sectors like railway, shipbuilding, and electrical machinery maintained double-digit growth rates[8] Consumer Activity - Retail sales growth in Q1 reached 4.6%, up from 3.7% in December, driven by policies like "trade-in for new"[10] - In March, retail sales growth accelerated to 5.9%, higher than the expected 4.2%[10] - Online retail sales in March increased to 6.9%, reflecting a recovery in consumer spending[11] Investment Trends - Fixed asset investment growth in Q1 was 4.2%, faster than the 3.2% recorded for the entire year of 2024[12] - Infrastructure investment surged by 11.5% in Q1, with March growth rising to 12.6%[13] - Real estate investment saw a decline of 10% in March, but the rate of decline improved slightly compared to earlier months[14] Employment and Risks - The urban unemployment rate in March slightly decreased to 5.2%, consistent with the previous year's level[15] - Risks include potential escalation of global trade tensions and a downturn in the real estate cycle affecting domestic demand[5][17]

Investment Rating - The report provides an investment rating of 17.16% for the industry in 2024, indicating a positive outlook for growth [2][7]. Core Insights - The industry is projected to reach a market size of ¥13,679.92 billion by 2025, with a significant growth rate of 17.16% [7]. - The GDP growth rate is expected to be 5.1% in 2024, with a slight increase in CPI by 0.1% [2]. - The report highlights a strong performance in the TMT (Technology, Media, and Telecommunications) sector, which is expected to contribute significantly to the overall growth [3][7]. Summary by Relevant Sections - **Market Size and Growth**: The industry is anticipated to grow to ¥13,679.92 billion by 2025, with a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 17.16% from 2024 [7]. - **Sector Performance**: The TMT sector shows a robust growth trajectory, with specific segments projected to grow at rates exceeding 20% [3][7]. - **Economic Indicators**: The report notes a GDP growth of 5.1% and a CPI increase of 0.1% for 2024, suggesting a stable economic environment for the industry [2].

头豹市场研究| 2024/12 商用车系列： 2024年中国商用车企业竞争格局判断 报告：尾部企业淘汰赛加速 2024 China Heavy Truck Market Cyclical Study 2024 年中国大型トラック市場の循環的研究 （精华版） 报告标签：重卡、自卸车、房地产、牵引车、商用车、GDP 撰写人：马天奇 报告提供的任何内容（包括但不限于数据、文字、图表、图像等）均系头豹研究院独有的高度机密性文件 （在报告中另行标明出处者除外）。 ，任何人不得以任何方式擅自复制、再 造、传播、出版、引用、改编、汇编本报告内容，若有违反上述约定的行为发生，头豹研究院保留采取法 律措施、追究相关人员责任的权利。头豹研究院开展的所有商业活动均使用"头豹研究院"或"头豹"的商号、 商标，头豹研究院无任何前述名称之外的其他分支机构，也未授权或聘用其他任何第三方代表头豹研究院 开展商业活动。 www.leadleo.com 头豹市场研读 | 2024/12 观点摘要 从国际经验看，主要发达国家重卡市场已全面进入成熟期：美国1970-2020年经历六个完整 经济周期，虽然销量中枢整体呈上移趋势，但经济增长动能持续减弱 ...

联系人： 李星宇（18810112501） 文 ： 华创证券研究所副所长 、首席宏观分析师 张瑜（执业证号：S0360518090001） 核心观点 1、重要数据回顾 ：①美国2月PPI环比低于预期，2月CPI通胀超预期回落，1月JOLTs职位空缺数回升。②欧元区3月投资者信心指数大幅回升，德国1月出口明显 下滑。③日本2024年四季度实际GDP年化季环比终值小幅下修。 2、美国基本面高频 ：①景气上行的有：WEI指数（经济景气上行）、就业（美国初请和续请失 业金人数回落）、地产（房贷申请数量回升）。②景气下行的有：消费（红皮书商业零售同比边际回升）、物价（大宗价格和汽油零售价回落）。 3、美国流动性 高频 ：①美国金融条件紧缩，欧元区金融条件放松。②离岸美元流动性：有所恶化。日元、欧元兑美元3个月掉期基差回落。 报告摘要 一、过去一周重要数据回顾 1、美国2月PPI环比低于预期，2月CPI通胀超预期回落，1月JOLTs职位空缺数回升 。 2、欧元区3月投资者信心指数大幅回升，德国1月出口明显下滑 。 3、日本 2024年四季度实际GDP年化季环比终值小幅下修 。 二、周度经济活动指数 美国经济活动指数回升 ...