Core Viewpoint - The Franklin FTSE Brazil ETF (FLBR) has reached a 52-week high and has increased by 48.4% from its 52-week low price of $13.98 per share, raising questions about its potential for further gains [1] Group 1: Fund Overview - FLBR provides exposure to large and mid-cap stocks based in Brazil and charges an annual fee of 19 basis points [2] Group 2: Factors Behind the Rise - The rise of FLBR to a 52-week high is attributed to the strengthening of Brazil's currency (the Real) and record highs in the Brazilian stock market, driven by expectations of future interest rate cuts by Brazil's central bank and a favorable outlook due to a potentially weaker U.S. dollar [3] Group 3: Future Outlook - FLBR is expected to maintain its strong performance in the near term, indicated by a positive weighted alpha of 37.98, suggesting potential for further rally [4]

Economic Indicators - The dollar index (DXY00) decreased by -0.38%, reaching a 5-week low, influenced by a weak November ADP report which was dovish for Federal Reserve policy [1] - The November ISM services index unexpectedly increased by +0.3 to a 9-month high of 52.6, contrary to expectations of a decline to 52.0 [4] - US MBA mortgage applications fell by -1.4% in the week ending November 28, with the purchase mortgage sub-index rising by +2.5% and the refinancing mortgage sub-index declining by -4.4% [3] Federal Reserve and Monetary Policy - President Trump plans to announce his selection for the new Fed Chair in early 2026, with Kevin Hassett seen as a likely candidate, which could be bearish for the dollar due to his dovish stance [2] - The markets are pricing in a 94% chance that the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) will cut the fed funds target range by 25 basis points at the next meeting on December 9-10 [4] Eurozone Economic Performance - The Eurozone's November S&P composite PMI was revised upward by +0.4 to a 2.5-year high of 52.8, indicating economic strength [5][6] - Eurozone October PPI rose by +0.1% month-over-month and fell by -0.5% year-over-year, aligning with expectations [6]

Group 1 - Traders are increasing bets on lower interest rates following the anticipated announcement of a new Federal Reserve chair and the release of delayed economic data [1][2] - The demand for short-term curve structures linked to the Secured Overnight Financing Rate (SOFR) indicates expectations for monetary policy easing after Jerome Powell's term ends in May [2][4] - The frontrunner for the new Fed chair position is Kevin Hassett, as indicated by President Trump, which has led to increased trading activity in futures markets [3][4] Group 2 - The upcoming announcement of the new Fed chair is expected to create a "shadow Fed chair," potentially complicating the Fed's communication of monetary policy [4] - Delayed labor market data, set to be released on December 16, could influence market expectations for dovish monetary policy if it confirms signs of softening in the labor market [5][6] - Recent trading activity has shown a preference for positions that benefit from a curve steepening, particularly targeting short-dated futures [6] Group 3 - Wagers on a dovish policy shift have resulted in a decline in 10-year Treasury yields, which fell below 4% last week [7] - The 10-year Treasury yield decreased to 4.08%, down from 4.11%, reflecting market reactions to expectations of rate cuts [7]

Market Overview - The U.S. stock market faced significant turbulence in November 2025, influenced by elevated valuations, mixed economic signals, and changing expectations for the Federal Reserve's monetary policy [1][2] - The pullback in AI-linked megacap stocks led to profit-taking, impacting broader indices, with the S&P 500 and Dow Jones Industrial Average showing modest gains while the Nasdaq Composite declined [1] Economic Indicators - Heavy selling in equities occurred mid-November due to a breakdown in the "AI trade" and reduced odds for rate cuts following hawkish Fed remarks amid a government shutdown [2] - Sentiment improved during the Thanksgiving week as weakening labor market data and dovish economic indicators raised hopes for a potential Fed rate cut in December [2] Sector Performance - Rate-sensitive sectors, particularly Financial Services, emerged as top performers in November, benefiting from optimism around economic stability and expectations of rate cuts [3] - Five selected bank stocks outperformed the S&P 500 in November, driven by rising net interest income (NII), acquisitions, and regional expansions [7] Selected Bank Stocks - Citizens Financial Group (CFG), Huntington Bancshares (HBAN), Regions Financial (RF), U.S. Bancorp (USB), and Fifth Third Bancorp (FITB) are highlighted as strong performers with market caps of $20 billion or more [5][7] - CFG reported $222.7 billion in assets and is on track to meet its 2025 targets for deposits, loans, and assets under management [9][10] - HBAN's recent acquisitions and expansion plans are expected to drive loan and deposit growth, with management projecting an 8% increase in loans and 5.5% in deposits for 2025 [17][18] - USB is focusing on expanding consumer and commercial deposits and enhancing fee-based revenue through payment innovations, with a market cap of $76.24 billion [22][21] - RF is advancing its growth strategy through acquisitions and is benefiting from rising loan pipelines, with a market cap of $22.32 billion [25][24] - FITB is expanding its geographic footprint and has announced a merger with Comerica, which will create the ninth-largest U.S. bank, with a market cap of $28.73 billion [30][31]

Core Insights - Major indices are attempting to rebound after a recent pullback, with optimism surrounding potential Federal Reserve interest rate cuts and a resurgence in tech stocks [3][5] Company Summaries Amazon - Wells Fargo raised its price target on Amazon to $295 per share, maintaining an overweight rating. The firm anticipates that sustained supply constraints in the cloud industry could lead to a doubling of AWS capacity by 2027, potentially adding $150 billion in annual revenue, which would significantly enhance revenue estimates for 2027 and 2028 [5][6] Eli Lilly - Bank of America reiterated a buy rating on Eli Lilly, increasing its price target from $950 to $1,286. The firm highlights Eli Lilly's leadership in the obesity and diabetes market with its GLP-1 franchise, Zepbound/Mounjaro, and expects the launch of a new oral obesity medication in early 2026 [7][8] Apple - Bernstein reiterated an outperform rating on Apple, noting strong iPhone sales. In October, Apple achieved a record single-month market share of 24.2%, with unit sales increasing by 30% month-over-month and 12% year-over-year, driven by robust sales in both China and the US [9]

Sometimes you have to take matters into your own hands. The government shutdown ended a while ago, but there's been at least one lingering effect: a lack of inflation data.The last CPI report was for September and released way back on October 24. November's inflation report — sorry October, we'll catch you next year — was scheduled to drop December 10, but got bumped to December 18. But who wants to wait another two-plus weeks?Business Insider took matters into its own hands, surveying readers about how p ...

Group 1 - US Treasury yields increased, with the 10-year yield rising by eight basis points to 4.09%, while shorter maturities rose by at least four basis points [3] - Merck & Co. announced an eight-part bond offering, contributing to a projected $40 billion in corporate bond supply for December, with approximately half expected this week [3] - The total corporate bond supply for the year through November reached $1.55 trillion, indicating robust market conditions [3] Group 2 - Expectations for a Federal Reserve interest rate cut next week are high, despite concerns from some policymakers about persistent inflation above the 2% target [4] - Economists at Bank of America have resumed forecasting a Fed rate cut next week, influenced by recent employment data showing an increase in the unemployment rate to nearly 4.5% [4] - A private-sector gauge of US manufacturing unexpectedly declined, impacting the Treasury selloff and indicating potential economic weakness [5] Group 3 - Traders are assigning an 80% probability to the Fed lowering benchmark rates next week, influenced by President Trump's decision on the next central bank leader [7] - The market is reacting to the prospect of rate cuts, with US yields fluctuating around 4% after previously dropping below that level [6]

Core Viewpoint - RBC Capital Markets has set a new 12-month price target for the S&P 500 at 7,750, indicating confidence in US stocks and suggesting a potential rise of nearly 14% over the coming year [1][2]. Group 1: Price Target and Market Outlook - The new price target of 7,750 reflects a bullish sentiment among analysts, aligning with other optimistic forecasts such as Deutsche Bank's call for 8,000 by year-end 2026 [1][2]. - The expectation of a bull market continuation is supported by a growing consensus among analysts [2][7]. Group 2: Key Supporting Factors - A potential drop in interest rates is highlighted as a significant factor that could support stock prices, with historical data showing that modest Fed rate cuts lead to an average S&P 500 increase of 13.3% [3]. - Current market conditions indicate an 87% probability of a rate cut by the end of December, a significant increase from 30% two weeks prior, which could further bolster market confidence [4]. Group 3: Earnings Performance - S&P 500 companies reported a 13.4% profit growth in Q3, driven largely by Big Tech, marking the fourth consecutive quarter of double-digit gains and exceeding the 10-year average of 9.5% [5]. - Despite strong earnings, the growth is still below the five-year average of 14.9%, indicating room for improvement [5]. Group 4: Market Dynamics - A rotation from megacap growth stocks to value stocks is beginning, with expectations that this trend will continue as earnings improve outside the top-performing companies [6]. - The overall economic outlook remains nuanced, with expectations of limited pullbacks in the S&P 500 to the 5-10% range unless recession risks become significant [8].

Market Overview - Cryptocurrencies experienced a significant decline, with Bitcoin dropping as much as 6% to below $86,000 and Ether falling over 7% to around $2,800, indicating a continuation of a broader selloff in the market [1] - The crypto market is under pressure following a weeks-long selloff that began with the liquidation of approximately $19 billion in leveraged bets in early October, shortly after Bitcoin reached an all-time high of $126,251 [2] Bitcoin Performance - Bitcoin lost 16.7% of its value in November but managed to recover slightly last week, rising above $90,000 before the recent selling pressure resumed [2] - Traders are now monitoring Bitcoin's performance closely, with $80,000 identified as a critical support level amid concerns over low inflows into Bitcoin exchange-traded funds and a lack of dip buyers [3] Macro Economic Influences - The cryptocurrency market is affected by broader macroeconomic trends, including fluctuations in Asian equities and rising Japanese government bond yields, which historically impact global risk assets like cryptocurrencies [4] - The upcoming week is crucial for assessing US economic momentum, as policymakers consider interest rate trajectories, which could influence market sentiment towards cryptocurrencies [5] Company Insights - Strategy Inc. CEO Phong Le indicated that the company might sell Bitcoin if its mNAV (market net asset value) falls below 1x, highlighting the company's current mNAV of 1.19 and its substantial Bitcoin holdings valued at $56 billion [6]

Core Insights - Interest rate cuts are beginning to take effect, indicating a shift in monetary policy [1] - Economic growth is anticipated to decelerate, with 2026 projected as a year of policy transition [1] Group 1 - The implementation of interest rate cuts suggests a response to current economic conditions [1] - A slowdown in growth is expected, highlighting potential challenges for various sectors [1] - The year 2026 is identified as a pivotal point for policy changes, which may impact investment strategies [1]