格隆汇8月18日｜在特朗普与乌泽连斯基会谈前，新兴市场资产小幅走高，投资者正关注俄乌和平协议 是否会有进展的迹象。MSCI新兴市场股票指数一度上涨0.6%。投资者在本周晚些时候的杰克逊霍尔年 会上也保持谨慎，鲍威尔的讲话可能暗示9月降息的可能性。"风险资产的强劲表现已令人瞩目，估值越 来越显得紧绷。"德银分析师Jim Reid带领的团队在一份报告中写道。瑞银全球财富管理首席投资官 Mark Haefele团队在报告中表示，鉴于谈判立场差距巨大、战场缺乏决定性进展，"我们预计俄乌冲突将 持续到明年。任何谈判进程都会被拉长，因为缺乏信任和目标差距过大，任何协议都可能受到怀疑。" ...

Group 1 - The meeting between US President Trump and Ukrainian President Zelensky is scheduled for the 18th, with several European leaders also visiting to support Zelensky and avoid past tensions [1][2] - Trump indicated that if Zelensky is willing, the Russia-Ukraine conflict could "almost immediately" end, but he also stated that Ukraine would not regain Crimea and cannot join NATO [1] - The collective visit of European leaders aims to prevent Zelensky from being pressured into an unfavorable agreement with Russia, following a previous contentious meeting in February [2] Group 2 - The last meeting between Zelensky and Trump occurred on February 28, where tensions led to Zelensky leaving early, and subsequent military aid to Ukraine was paused [2] - US Secretary of State Rubio commented that the European leaders' visit is a result of ongoing cooperation and not solely to protect Zelensky from pressure [2] - Discussions during the meeting will also include security guarantees for Ukraine, emphasizing that any territorial issues must be decided by Ukraine itself [2]

Core Points - The meeting between US President Trump and Ukrainian President Zelensky is scheduled for August 18, with European leaders also visiting the US to support Zelensky [1][2] - Trump indicated that the conflict between Russia and Ukraine could "almost immediately" end if Zelensky is willing, but he also stated that Ukraine cannot reclaim Crimea or join NATO [1] - The collective visit of European leaders aims to prevent a repeat of the contentious February meeting and to support Zelensky against potential pressure from the US [1][2] Summary by Sections - **Meeting Details** - Trump will first meet with Zelensky at 1:15 PM local time, followed by a collective meeting with European leaders at 3 PM [1] - This is Zelensky's second visit to the White House, the first being on February 28, where tensions arose leading to an early departure [2] - **European Leaders' Visit** - The visit is characterized as a group effort to avoid past conflicts and to provide support to Ukraine [1][2] - US Secretary of State Rubio emphasized that the visit is a result of ongoing cooperation between the US and Europe [2] - **Negotiation Dynamics** - The meeting is expected to discuss security guarantees for Ukraine and the need for concessions from both Russia and Ukraine for a peace agreement [2] - EU Commission President von der Leyen stated that any territorial issues must be decided by Ukraine itself [2]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article highlights that former President Trump believes the conflict between Ukraine and Russia could be resolved "almost immediately" if Ukrainian President Zelensky is willing to do so [1] - Trump asserts that Ukraine will not be able to reclaim Crimea and cannot join NATO, indicating a long-term geopolitical stance [1] - The article mentions an upcoming significant event at the White House, where a record number of European leaders are expected to gather, which Trump describes as a "great honor" for the United States [1]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the upcoming meeting between Ukrainian President Zelensky and U.S. President Trump, highlighting the geopolitical implications of the Russia-Ukraine conflict and the differing stances of the involved parties [3]. Group 1: Meeting Details - Zelensky arrived in Washington on the evening of August 17, 2025, for discussions with U.S. officials [3]. - Trump is scheduled to meet with Zelensky on August 18 at 1:15 PM EDT, followed by a multilateral meeting with European leaders at 3 PM EDT [3]. Group 2: Political Context - Trump stated on social media that Zelensky could end the war with Russia almost immediately if he chooses, but emphasized that Ukraine should not expect to reclaim Crimea or join NATO [3]. - The last visit of Zelensky to the White House was on February 28, 2025, which ended in a dispute between him and U.S. officials [3].

Core Insights - The meeting between President Trump and President Putin did not yield a decisive agreement on a ceasefire or the potential increase of Russian oil flow globally, leading to a decline in initial optimism [1][2] - Despite the lack of concrete outcomes, the meeting highlighted Russia's enduring strength in the global energy market, even amidst sanctions [1][2] Group 1: Meeting Outcomes - Trump described the meeting as "very productive" with some progress, but no agreements were reached [1] - Putin characterized the discussions as "constructive," indicating some consensus on certain issues without providing specifics [1] - The meeting was framed as a high-stakes confrontation that could potentially reshape the sanctions landscape favorably for Russia [1][2] Group 2: Oil Export Dynamics - According to the EIA, Russian oil exports have only seen a "moderate" decline since the onset of the Ukraine conflict, with an average daily export of 4.3 million barrels in the first half of the year [2] - The decrease in Russian oil exports to Europe has been offset by increased exports to Asia, maintaining Russia's position in the OPEC+ framework [2][3] Group 3: Future Energy Market Implications - The likelihood of a significant shift in global oil supply post-summit is considered "minimal" [3] - The ongoing conflict means that the oil market remains unchanged, with no immediate resolution in sight [4] - Long-term, the summit's implications extend beyond immediate energy flows to Russia's role in the global energy structure, with a need for Russia to establish itself as a reliable and low-cost energy supplier [4][5] Group 4: Market Reactions - The summit was not seen as a "magic lever" for supply changes due to existing production constraints from sanctions and OPEC+ quotas [5] - The meeting was characterized as a "tentative" encounter that generated optimism without binding commitments [5] - Market participants may react to the lingering premium in oil prices, but the summit did not provide a catalyst for a significant revaluation of energy security [5]

Group 1 - Since 2022, Europe has provided more military aid to Ukraine through the defense industry than the United States, with a total of at least €35.1 billion in defense procurement contracts by June 2023, surpassing the U.S. by €4.4 billion [6][7] - European leaders, including the President of the European Commission and heads of state from Germany, France, the UK, Italy, and NATO, are set to meet with U.S. President Trump and Ukrainian President Zelensky to discuss further support for Ukraine [3][6] - A joint statement from European leaders emphasized the need for "rock-solid security guarantees" for Ukraine to defend its sovereignty and territorial integrity, indicating a unified European stance on the issue [3][4] Group 2 - The ongoing conflict has led to a reliance on external military and economic aid for Ukraine, particularly from Europe, as the U.S. has indicated a potential reduction in military support [6][7] - Concerns have been raised regarding Trump's shifting stance towards Russia, which may impact European interests and the future of military aid to Ukraine [6][7] - The situation highlights the challenges Europe faces in balancing military support for Ukraine while managing domestic public opinion regarding continued military expenditures [7]

稍早前，特朗普在其社交媒体平台"真实社交"上发文称，"泽连斯基如果愿意，几乎可以立即就结 束与俄罗斯的战争，或者选择继续战斗——不要想收回奥巴马时期失去的克里米亚，也绝不允许乌克兰 加入北约。有些事永远不可能改变！" 根据白宫方面最新公布的日程安排，美国东部时间8月18日下午1时15分，北京时间8月19日凌晨1时 15分，特朗普将在白宫会晤泽连斯基。美东时间18日下午3时，北京时间19日凌晨3时，特朗普将出席与 欧洲领导人举行的多边会议。 美国东部时间8月17日晚，乌克兰总统泽连斯基飞抵美国华盛顿。据美国媒体报道，美国总统特朗 普将于美东时间8月18日下午先与泽连斯基会晤，美国副总统万斯也将出席，随后再与到访的欧盟委员 会主席冯德莱恩、法国总统马克龙、德国总理默茨、英国首相斯塔默、意大利总理梅洛尼及北约秘书长 吕特举行更大范围会议，讨论俄乌冲突。 泽连斯基上一次到访白宫是在当地时间今年2月28日。当时特朗普及万斯与其发生争吵，双方不欢 而散。 ...

（原标题：特朗普将先与泽连斯基会晤，再与欧洲领导人讨论→） 来源：央视新闻 欧洲方面与会者包括欧盟委员会主席冯德莱恩、德国总理默茨、法国总统马克龙、英国首相斯塔默、意 大利总理梅洛尼以及北约秘书长吕特。 据悉，2月在白宫的会晤因特朗普和万斯批评泽连斯基而陷入僵局，引发欧洲对美国可能倾向俄罗斯的 担忧。这些担忧在特朗普本月15日在阿拉斯加会晤普京后再度升温。 美国总统特朗普与俄罗斯总统普京当地时间15日在美国阿拉斯加州安克雷奇举行会晤。会晤持续约3小 时，双方表示，会晤"具有建设性""富有成果"，但未就俄罗斯与乌克兰停火等问题达成任何协议。 乌克兰总统泽连斯基16日说，他同美国总统特朗普进行了"长时间且内容充实"的通话。他将应邀于18日 在美国首都华盛顿与特朗普会晤，讨论结束俄乌冲突的"所有细节"。 据央视新闻，当地时间8月17日，据《国会山报》报道，美国总统特朗普将于美国东部时间18日下午先 与乌克兰总统泽连斯基会晤，美国副总统万斯出席，随后再与到访的欧洲领导人举行更大范围会议，讨 论俄乌冲突前景。 ...

美国总统特朗普17日向乌克兰总统泽连斯基喊话，称如果泽连斯基愿意，俄乌冲突能"几乎立即"结束。 特朗普在社交媒体上写道："乌克兰总统泽连斯基如果愿意的话，能几乎立即结束与俄罗斯的战争。他 （泽连斯基）也可以继续战斗。" 特朗普还声称，乌克兰"收不回"克里米亚，也无法加入北约。"有些事情永远不会改变！！！" 特朗普将于当地时间18日在美国首都华盛顿与泽连斯基及欧洲领导人举行会晤。 （文章来源：新华社） ...