Market Overview - The Tokyo stock market indices continued to consolidate on July 4, with the Nikkei 225 index closing up 0.06% and the Tokyo Stock Exchange Price Index down 0.04% [1][2] - Influenced by the rise of three major US stock indices overnight, the Tokyo market opened higher, with the Nikkei index briefly surpassing 40,000 points [1] Trade Negotiations Impact - The market faced pressure due to the uncertainty surrounding the Japan-US trade negotiations, particularly with the deadline for the suspension of "reciprocal tariffs" approaching [1] Sector Performance - At the close, the Nikkei index rose by 24.98 points to 39,810.88 points, while the Tokyo Stock Exchange index fell by 1.04 points to 2,827.95 points [2] - Most of the 33 industry sectors on the Tokyo Stock Exchange saw gains, with the electric and gas industry, banking, and securities and commodity futures trading sectors leading the increases [2] - Conversely, sectors such as marine transportation, steel, and non-ferrous metals experienced declines [2]

Core Viewpoint - Fitch Ratings has adjusted the rating outlook of six Chinese state-owned banks' non-bank financial subsidiaries from "negative" to "stable" [1] Group 1: Company Ratings and Performance - The six financial subsidiaries include four leasing companies: ICBC Financial Leasing, Bank of Communications Financial Leasing, CCB Financial Leasing, and BOCA Aviation [1] - BOCA Aviation, a state-owned enterprise, focuses on aircraft leasing and has achieved a 100% aircraft utilization rate for the first time in five years, with a total of 829 aircraft and engines [1] - ICBC Financial Leasing owns over 500 aircraft, including four C919s, while Bank of Communications Financial Leasing has a fleet of 298 aircraft [1] Group 2: Industry Challenges and Risks - Aircraft leasing companies face risks from tariff changes, which can significantly impact procurement costs [3] - The recent announcement of a "reciprocal tariff" policy by the U.S. government could increase the cost of Boeing 737 MAX 8 aircraft from approximately $120 million to over $200 million [3] - In 2024, China is expected to import approximately $12.167 billion worth of helicopters, aircraft, and parts, with over 50% coming from the U.S. [3] Group 3: Strategic Recommendations - Aviation leasing companies should review existing contracts to assess tax cost implications and utilize tariff exclusion rules [5] - It is crucial for companies to clarify tax burden responsibilities in contracts to avoid disputes and renegotiations [5] - Companies are advised to negotiate supplementary agreements to address new tax burdens and reduce uncertainties [5]

Core Insights - The impact of increased tariffs on European goods by the U.S. is becoming evident, with a significant drop in imports from Europe [1] - The automotive sector is the most affected, experiencing a 36% year-on-year decline in exports to the U.S. in June [3] - Overall, the decline in exports is expected to accelerate following the implementation of "reciprocal tariffs" on August 7 [1][4] Group 1: Import Trends - In June, U.S. imports from Europe fell from $56.6 billion in May to $45.2 billion, marking the lowest level since February 2024 [1] - The automotive industry faced the steepest decline, with a 36% year-on-year drop in exports [3] - Other sectors, such as transportation equipment and chemicals, also reported declines of 30% and 19% respectively [3] Group 2: Tariff Impact - The average tariff rate on European goods exported to the U.S. increased from 12% in June to 16% starting August 1 [4] - The current tariff rate of 15% is more damaging compared to the 10% rate during the tariff suspension period from April to July [4] - The report indicates that the observed decline in exports is still relatively mild compared to potential overall losses from the tariffs [4] Group 3: Sector-Specific Effects - Some sectors, like pharmaceuticals, showed a minor year-on-year decline of only 3%, despite a significant drop in monthly export amounts due to "front-loading" effects [4] - Industries such as processed metal products, electrical equipment, and rubber/plastics have not yet shown significant declines, with some even experiencing year-on-year growth [4] - The report suggests that unless European exporters are capturing U.S. market share, the current growth in these sectors may indicate an impending adjustment [4]

Group 1 - The U.S. has implemented tariffs on numerous trade partners, with the average tariff level reaching 18.6%, the highest since 1933 [2] - Countries such as the UK, EU, South Korea, and Japan have accepted varying tariff rates, with some agreeing to 10% to 20% tariffs to maintain competitiveness [3][4] - The tariffs are expected to increase costs for U.S. importers, which may lead to higher prices for consumers and businesses, potentially impacting economic efficiency and innovation [2][7] Group 2 - Countries like Brazil and India face some of the highest tariffs, with Brazil's products subject to a 40% tariff and India facing a potential 25% additional tariff [6] - Some countries are negotiating for exemptions from tariffs, with the EU seeking to exclude strategic products and Chile successfully obtaining an exemption for copper [5][6] - The tariffs are projected to significantly increase federal revenue, with expectations of $50 billion monthly from tariffs, although they are also raising costs for major companies [7]

Core Viewpoint - The ongoing legal battle regarding the Trump administration's imposition of high tariffs on multiple countries raises questions about the limits of executive power and whether such actions are unconstitutional [1][2]. Group 1: Legal Proceedings - The Washington D.C. Circuit Court of Appeals held a hearing to debate whether the Trump administration's tariff actions constitute an overreach of authority [1]. - The case stems from an appeal against a ruling by the U.S. International Trade Court that temporarily blocked the President's broad use of tariffs [1]. - The court is examining the interpretation of the International Emergency Economic Powers Act (IEEPA) and whether it grants the President unlimited tariff authority without Congressional approval [2][4]. Group 2: Historical Context and Arguments - The Trump administration's tariffs, which range from 10% to 41%, are based on a broad interpretation of IEEPA, which critics argue has never granted such extensive tariff-setting powers [4][5]. - Historical precedents, such as the Nixon administration's temporary tariffs, are being cited, but the current tariffs lack a specified end date and alter the established tariff schedule [5][6]. - The government argues that IEEPA allows for broad import regulation, while critics assert that the act does not explicitly mention tariffs and that Congress has not authorized such expansive powers [6][8]. Group 3: Potential Outcomes and Implications - If the court rules against the Trump administration, it may lead to significant financial implications, including the potential requirement for the government to refund tariffs already collected [7][9]. - The total tariffs collected under IEEPA and other trade laws have exceeded $150 billion, nearly double the amount from the previous fiscal year [8]. - The complexity of refunding tariffs raises questions about who would be eligible for refunds, as the costs are often passed through the economic system [9].

但特朗普8月7日宣称，美国将对进口半导体产品征收100%关税，并强调这一税率将适用于"所有进入美 国的芯片和半导体"。日方此前的希望恐怕又要落空。 其实，日美这番关税"乌龙"早就有迹可循。日美关税谈判后一直未制定协议文件，相当于只有口头协 议，日本在野党对此早有异议。石破茂4日在众议院预算委员会会议上称，"与达成协议相比，付诸实施 更难。担心制定文件会拖慢关税下调。"赤泽亮正也保证"只要有总统令即可，不需要有协议文件"。 但白宫7月31日公布的总统令中并未体现税率细则。赤泽亮正8月5日在参议院预算委员会会议上解释 称，已向美方确认"与欧盟（15%）相同"。到了5日，美国海关公布新的"对等关税"相关文件后，日本 就发现"不对劲"：美国海关文件显示所有日本商品加征15%关税。于是赤泽亮正当田紧急赴美，向卢特 尼克"要说法"。 日美间关税麻烦还不止这些。按日方说法，日美已就将汽车及零部件关税从目前27.5%下调至15%达成 一致，但具体下调时间不得而知。据共同社报道，受汽车关税影响，丰田、本田等日本七大汽车商2025 财年合并营业利润最多将缩水约2.67万亿日元（约合1302亿元人民币），这个规模达到七家车企列入上 ...

Core Insights - In July 2025, China's export growth rate in USD terms rebounded to 7.2% from 5.9% in June, exceeding Bloomberg's consensus forecast of 5.6% [1][5] - Import growth also improved, rising to 4.1% from 1.1% in June, surpassing the expected decline of -1% [1][5] - The trade surplus slightly decreased to $98.2 billion, an increase of $12.8 billion year-on-year, continuing to support overall demand [1][5] Export Analysis - The rebound in export growth is attributed to several factors, including the "export rush" effect and a recovery in global trade activity [2][5] - The semiconductor cycle's strength has positively impacted related industries, with July exports to South Korea and Taiwan showing significant improvement [2][5] - Exports to the EU and ASEAN have notably strengthened, contributing approximately 4 percentage points to July's export growth [2][6] Import Analysis - July's import growth rate increased by 3 percentage points to 4.1%, driven by improvements in agricultural products and upstream energy imports [3][9] - Energy imports improved from -15.9% to -11.8%, while agricultural imports rose from 1.9% to 5.1% [3][9] - Imports from the US continued to decline, with a year-on-year drop from -15.5% to -18.9%, negatively impacting overall import performance [3][9] Future Outlook - The implementation of new "reciprocal tariffs" and the "232" industry tariffs in August may further elevate global tariff levels, with potential impacts on trade activities still to be observed [4][10] - Despite uncertainties, the overall global demand is expected to remain stable due to fiscal and monetary policy expansions in major economies [4][10] - China's relative advantage in the US import market may increase, although risks from declining global trade volumes persist [4][10] Sector-Specific Insights - The export of mechanical and electrical products showed resilience, with integrated circuit exports growing significantly [6][7] - Automotive exports continued to rise, with a growth rate of 12.1% in July, while steel and fertilizer exports also saw substantial increases [7][8] - Exports to Africa and ASEAN remained strong, reflecting the diversification of China's export destinations [8][9]

Core Points - The U.S. government has implemented adjusted "reciprocal tariffs" ranging from 10% to 41% on several trade partners, leading to dissatisfaction from countries like India, Japan, and Switzerland [1] Group 1: Japan's Response - Japan faces a 15% "reciprocal tariff" and is strongly urging the U.S. to amend the presidential executive order, citing unfulfilled commitments regarding tax reductions [2] - Japanese Prime Minister Kishida expressed that there is no disagreement between Japan and the U.S. on this issue, emphasizing the need for clarity on whether the new tariffs will be added to existing rates [2] - Japan is also seeking a reduction in tariffs on automobiles during discussions with U.S. officials [2] Group 2: India's Position - India is subject to a 25% "reciprocal tariff," with an additional 25% imposed by President Trump due to India's imports of Russian oil, effective by the end of August [3] - Indian Prime Minister Modi stated that the welfare of farmers is paramount and that India will not compromise on this issue, despite the potential heavy costs [3] - The trade negotiations between India and the U.S. have collapsed after five rounds due to disagreements over agricultural market access and oil purchases [3] Group 3: Switzerland's Stance - Switzerland faces the highest tariff rate among developed countries at 39% and is committed to negotiating with the U.S. to lower these tariffs [4] - The Swiss government held an emergency meeting and is in close contact with affected industries, aiming to continue discussions with U.S. authorities [4] - Switzerland is not considering retaliatory tariffs, as such measures would burden its economy and increase import prices from the U.S. [4]

Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided Core Viewpoints - The market has returned to the fundamental verification stage. China's July import and export data exceeded expectations, but the export is still under pressure due to the upcoming "reciprocal tariff 2.0", and the progress of Sino-US trade negotiations needs to be continuously monitored. The US has imposed a series of new tariffs, and Trump plans to levy about 100% tariffs on chips and semiconductors, which will have a certain impact on the market. The UK central bank cut interest rates by 25 basis points as expected, and there are internal differences due to the increasing inflation risk. Putin said that he may meet with Trump in the UAE [1][2] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market Analysis - The Politburo meeting on July 30 deployed the economic work for the second half of the year, emphasizing the need for continuous and timely strengthening of macro policies and more moderate "anti-involution" policies. China's official manufacturing PMI in July fell to 49.3, and the new order index fell to 49.4, while the non-manufacturing sector remained in expansion. China's foreign exchange reserves in July decreased by 0.76% month-on-month, and the central bank increased its gold holdings for the ninth consecutive month. China's exports in July increased by 7.2% year-on-year in US dollars, mainly supported by the low base last year and the "rush to export" effect under tariff uncertainty. Imports increased by 4.1%, with significant growth in the imports of integrated circuits, copper ore concentrates, and high-tech products [1] Impact of "Reciprocal Tariffs" - On July 31, the White House issued an executive order to reset the "reciprocal tariff" rate standards for some countries. The new tariffs will take effect on August 7. Trump plans to levy about 100% tariffs on chips and semiconductors, and the EU's chip exports to the US are subject to a 15% tariff cap. The US economic data in July was not as expected, and the uncertainty of Trump's tariff policy continued to drag down business activities. The market expects the Fed to cut interest rates twice this year [2] Commodity Segments - Domestically, the black and new energy metal sectors are the most sensitive to the supply side. Overseas, the energy and non-ferrous sectors benefit significantly from inflation expectations. The black sector is still dragged down by downstream demand expectations, and the implementation of "anti-involution" policies should be closely monitored. The supply constraints in the non-ferrous sector have not been alleviated, and the impact of tariff implementation on demand expectations needs to be followed. In the short term, the geopolitical premium in the energy sector has ended, and the medium-term supply is expected to be relatively loose. OPEC+ accelerated production increase, agreeing to increase production by 548,000 barrels per day in August, higher than expected. In the chemical sector, the "anti-involution" potential of methanol, PVC, caustic soda, urea and other products is also worthy of attention. There is no short-term weather disturbance in agricultural products, and the price fluctuation range is relatively limited [3] Key News - As of the end of July 2025, China's foreign exchange reserves decreased by $25.2 billion to $3.2922 trillion compared with the end of June, a decrease of 0.76%. China's gold reserves increased by 600,000 ounces to 73.96 million ounces in July, the ninth consecutive month of increase. China's exports in July increased by 8% year-on-year in RMB and 7.2% in US dollars, while imports increased by 4.8% in RMB and 4.1% in US dollars. Trump plans to levy about 100% tariffs on chips and semiconductors, and will sign an executive order to allow 401K accounts to invest in alternative assets such as cryptocurrencies and private equity funds. The Bank of England cut interest rates by 25 basis points as expected, and Putin said he may meet with Trump in the UAE [5]

特朗普又升级了关税战，这次连盟友都下手，却没直接点名中国。新关税清单里，叙利亚、老挝、缅甸 被一刀砍进40%以上的最高档，贸易量小，纯属用来立威。加拿大被惩罚性加到35%，英国乖乖配合只 需交10%。美国这所谓的对等关税，其实就是服从性测试：听话就低税，不听话没本事就加死你。 ...