Group 1: US-Japan Trade Negotiations - The US has significantly increased tariffs on Japanese imports, raising the auto import tariff from 2.5% to 25%, with an overall tariff rate on Japanese products reaching 35% after the negotiation buffer period [3][4] - Japan's auto exports to the US were approximately $40 billion last year, accounting for about 28% of Japan's total exports to the US, which is critical for Japan's economy [4] - Japan is currently in a weaker negotiating position and may have to make concessions in other areas, such as increasing investments in the US and expanding imports of US agricultural products [5][6] Group 2: US-Korea Trade Negotiations - South Korea is also facing a 25% tariff on imports, but the initial proposed rate was 26%, indicating a slightly more favorable negotiation stance from the US [8][9] - Key exports from South Korea to the US include automobiles and semiconductors, with auto exports reaching $34.7 billion last year, making the US the largest market for South Korean cars [10][11] - South Korea is adopting a defensive compromise strategy, potentially accepting a 10% baseline tariff while seeking to protect its automotive and semiconductor export interests [11] Group 3: US-India Trade Negotiations - The US initially proposed a 26% tariff on Indian goods, which could raise the overall tariff rate to at least 36%, impacting India's exports significantly [13][14] - India's agricultural sector is a major sticking point in negotiations, as the government is reluctant to compromise on agricultural protections due to political implications [14][15] - Despite the challenges, India is seeking to maintain its export relationship with the US, which accounts for 23% of its total exports, and is looking for concessions in industrial goods tariffs [15][16] Group 4: US-ASEAN Trade Negotiations - The US is employing a divide-and-conquer strategy with ASEAN countries, imposing varying tariff rates on different member states, which could lead to significant economic impacts [18][20] - Vietnam and Indonesia have already reached trade agreements with the US, accepting substantial tariff concessions, highlighting their economic dependence on the US market [19][20] - The overall impact of US tariffs on ASEAN could exceed $160 billion, particularly affecting the automotive, electronics, and textile industries [20][21]

Group 1 - The fund aims to achieve long-term stable appreciation of assets by investing in high-quality companies with long-term value and growth potential while controlling risks [2][3] - The fund's investment strategy includes active asset allocation based on macroeconomic analysis, dynamic adjustments to investment proportions across various asset classes, and a focus on long-term investment value analysis of individual stocks [2][3] - The fund's performance benchmark is a combination of the CSI 800 Index return (70%), the CSI Hong Kong Stock Connect Composite Index return (10%), and the China Bond Composite Wealth Index return (20%) [3] Group 2 - As of the end of the reporting period, the total fund shares amounted to 209,395,467.89 shares, with the A share and C share classes having 147,397,456.97 shares and 61,998,010.92 shares respectively [2][3] - The fund's net value growth rates for the A and C share classes were -2.08% and -2.23% respectively, while the performance benchmark return was 1.57% [10][11] - The fund's asset allocation at the end of the reporting period included 91.27% in stocks and 1.02% in bonds, with a significant portion of equity investments made through the Hong Kong Stock Connect mechanism [11][12] Group 3 - The fund manager has a strong background in investment management, with extensive experience in various roles within the industry, ensuring a knowledgeable approach to fund management [4][6] - The fund has maintained appropriate liquidity to meet redemption requirements while managing liquidity risk effectively [3][8] - The fund's investment portfolio has been adjusted to focus on sectors with stable performance, such as banking, while reducing exposure to sectors facing intense price competition [10][11]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content Core Viewpoints - In May, domestic investment data weakened, especially in the real estate sector, which may drag down fiscal revenue and the entire real - estate chain; exports were under pressure, while consumption showed resilience. China's H1 GDP grew 5.3% year - on - year, higher than the annual target of 5%. The government may further strengthen pro - growth policies in the Politburo meeting in July [1]. - After passing the "Big Beautiful" Act, Trump shifted his focus to external pressure to advance tariff negotiations. Attention should be paid to the impact of tariff events on demand expectations [2]. - Domestic supply - side is most sensitive to the black and new - energy metal sectors, while overseas inflation expectations benefit the energy and non - ferrous sectors. Currently, the commodity fundamentals are still weak, and caution is needed regarding policy implementation [3]. - For commodities and stock index futures, it is advisable to allocate more industrial products on dips [4]. Summaries by Relevant Catalogs Market Analysis - China's economic data in May was mixed. Investment weakened, exports were under pressure, and only consumption was resilient. China's June manufacturing PMI rebounded, mainly driven by some raw - material industries. The growth of industrial added value and new - energy vehicle and industrial robot production was rapid in June, while the growth of social retail sales slowed down. Investment in infrastructure and manufacturing declined, and overall fixed - asset investment weakened. Since July, policies to combat "involution" in industries such as photovoltaic, lithium - battery, and automotive have been expected to increase, and some commodity prices have recovered [1]. - Trump signed the "Big Beautiful" tax and spending bill, shifting the US from a stage of "tight fiscal expectation + neutral monetary policy" to a stage of "easy to loosen and difficult to tighten" policies. The Fed may consider a rate cut, and tariff negotiations are accelerating. Attention should be paid to the impact of tariffs on demand expectations [2]. Commodity Market - The black sector is still dragged down by downstream demand expectations, the supply constraint in the non - ferrous sector remains unresolved, and the energy market has a short - term end of geopolitical premium and a medium - term supply - side easing. OPEC+ will increase production by 548,000 barrels per day in August, higher than expected. The short - term fluctuation of agricultural products is relatively limited [3]. Strategy - For commodities and stock index futures, it is recommended to buy industrial products on dips [4]. Important News - The market opened low and closed high, with the ChiNext Index leading the gains. Trump criticized Fed Chair Powell and may impose tariffs on Japan and other countries. The eurozone's June inflation data met expectations [5].

Report Overview - **Report Name**: Shanjin Futures Crude Oil Daily Report - **Update Time**: July 18, 2025, 08:15 1. Investment Ratings - No investment ratings are provided in the report. 2. Core Views - OPEC+ is likely to increase production, and high - frequency data is gradually confirming this. The medium - to long - term outlook for crude oil is bearish, but geopolitical factors may still have a pulsed impact, though less intense than before. The focus of crude oil trading may return to supply and demand [2]. - Geopolitical tensions in the Middle East remain, with the possibility of renewed conflict between Israel and Iran. However, the impact on oil prices may be limited if the expectation of blocked shipping lanes does not return [2]. - The "Big and Beautiful" bill signed by Trump may have a gradual and spill - over impact on the market. The implementation of high tariffs may lead to bearish macro - side expectations, higher inflation in the US, and make it difficult for the Fed to cut interest rates [2]. 3. Summary by Content 3.1 Market Data - **Crude Oil Futures**: On July 1, Sc was at 499.40 yuan/barrel, up 2.70 yuan (0.54%) from the previous day and down 19.20 yuan (-3.70%) from the previous week. WTI was at 65.53 dollars/barrel, up 0.56 dollars (0.86%) from the previous day and up 0.52 dollars (0.80%) from the previous week. Brent was at 67.28 dollars/barrel, up 0.65 dollars (0.98%) from the previous day and down 0.54 dollars (-0.80%) from the previous week [2]. - **Spreads**: Sc - WTI was at 4.28 dollars/barrel, down 0.13 dollars (-2.99%) from the previous day and down 3.08 dollars (-41.84%) from the previous week. Sc - Brent was at 2.53 dollars/barrel, down 0.22 dollars (-8.06%) from the previous day and down 2.02 dollars (-44.37%) from the previous week [2]. - **Spot Prices**: OPEC's basket of crude oil was at 68.35 dollars/barrel, up 0.36 dollars (0.53%) from the previous week. Brent DTD was at 68.17 dollars/barrel, down 1.05 dollars (-1.52%) from the previous week. Oman was at 69.20 dollars/barrel, up 1.40 dollars (2.06%) from the previous week. Dubai was at 68.75 dollars/barrel, up 0.95 dollars (1.40%) from the previous week [2]. - **Product Spot Prices**: Diesel in East China was at 7036.45 yuan/ton, down 56.27 yuan (-0.79%) from the previous day and down 380.55 yuan (-5.13%) from the previous week. Gasoline in East China was at 8078.18 yuan/ton, down 66.18 yuan (-0.81%) from the previous day and down 384.27 yuan (-4.54%) from the previous week [2]. - **Inventory Data**: Sc warehouse receipts were at 591.10 million barrels, up 188.20 million barrels (46.71%) from the previous week. US strategic petroleum reserves were at 402.53 million barrels, up 0.24 million barrels (0.06%) from the previous week. US commercial crude oil was at 415.11 million barrels, down 5.84 million barrels (-1.39%) from the previous week [2]. 3.2 Geopolitical and Policy News - E3 foreign ministers and the EU High Representative called on Iran to return to diplomatic channels to reach a verifiable and lasting nuclear agreement by the end of summer, or face renewed UN sanctions [3]. - A US assessment found that only one of the three Iranian nuclear facilities attacked last month was largely destroyed, and Trump rejected a more comprehensive military strike plan against Iran's nuclear program [3]. - Angola plans to increase its oil exports to 1.03 million barrels per day in September [3]. 3.3 Macroeconomic News - In May 2025, Japan and the UK increased their holdings of US Treasury bonds, while China continued to reduce its holdings. Japan's holdings were 1.135 trillion dollars, the UK's were 0.8094 trillion dollars, and China's were 0.7563 trillion dollars [4]. - According to CME's "FedWatch", the probability of the Fed keeping interest rates unchanged in July is 97.4%, and the probability of a 25 - basis - point cut is 2.6%. In September, the probability of keeping rates unchanged is 46.9%, and the probability of a cumulative 25 - basis - point cut is 51.7% [4]. - Fed officials have different views on interest rate cuts. Some believe rates should remain unchanged due to tariff - induced inflation pressure, while others support a 25 - basis - point cut [4][5][6]. 3.4 Technical Analysis and Trading Recommendations - In the medium term, the market is in a neutral oscillation pattern, with support and resistance levels around 65 and 68.3 dollars/barrel respectively. Short - term attention should be paid to the effectiveness of the 66.5 dollars/barrel resistance level for US crude oil [2]. - The trading strategy is to sell on rallies, choose the right timing, or use out - of - the - money put options to avoid short - term bullish shocks [2]

特朗普16日还表示，可能很快与印度达成贸易协议。据新加坡《联合早报》17日报道，印度面临的税率 为26%，其代表团本周一抵达华盛顿展开谈判。《印度快报》称，这是两国就双边贸易协定进行的第五 轮谈判。 美国"政治新闻网"称，特朗普上周向20多个经济体发送"关税信函"，这意味着，一些没有收到信函的国 家可能更接近与美国达成"真正的协议"，包括印度。它是最早开始与美国展开贸易谈判的国家之 一。"印度已经作出诸多让步，尤其在关税方面。"美国前谈判代表林斯科特说。 彭博社16日引述印度官员的话称，印方正在寻求比印尼（19%）更低的税率，使其比地区其他国家更具 有竞争优势。知情人士说，印度认为，它并不像越南等东南亚国家那样被美国视为转运中心。印度国家 银行首席经济学家、总理经济咨询委员会成员戈什表示，谈判团队希望将税率降至10%以下。根据他的 说法，印度不愿意开放农业和乳制品行业，但可能在工业领域作出让步。《印度时报》16日说，新德里 提出了一项取消美国工业产品关税的方案，前提是美国也作出同样举措。不过"政治新闻网"说，无论此 次印度与美国宣布什么内容，预计这只是达成贸易协议的第一阶段，更全面的协议将在秋季出台。 关于日 ...

Group 1 - The core point of the article highlights the unexpected announcement by President Trump regarding tariffs on Vietnamese goods, which has created significant uncertainty for Vietnam's economy and businesses [1][4][6] - Vietnam has become the 10th largest trading partner of the U.S., with exports exceeding $130 billion, making any changes in trade agreements particularly impactful [3][6] - The sudden increase in tariffs, particularly the 20% on exports to the U.S. and 40% on re-exported goods, poses a challenge for Vietnamese manufacturers who rely heavily on imported materials from China [4][6] Group 2 - The textile industry in Vietnam, exemplified by companies like Thanh Cong Garment, faces a potential increase in costs due to the new tariffs, which could lead to a significant reduction in orders from U.S. clients [4][6] - Vietnam's economy is highly dependent on exports, with nearly 90% of its GDP coming from trade, and one-third of its exports going to the U.S., making the tariff changes a direct threat to economic growth [6][8] - The ambiguity surrounding the definition of "transshipment" in the new trade agreement raises concerns for Vietnamese businesses that depend on Chinese raw materials, potentially leading to further economic repercussions [6][8]

新华社北京7月17日电 面对美国总统特朗普最新关税威胁，巴西近日频频出招"硬刚"美国：多部门联合致函表达强烈愤慨、暂停对美出口渔业产 品和牛肉等，而据媒体报道，巴西总统卢拉已录制向全体国民发表的电视和广播讲话，涉及美加征关税等内容，预计于当地时间17日播出。 "强烈愤慨" 据巴西通讯社报道，巴西发展、工业、贸易和服务部和外交部15日联合向美国政府致函，表达巴西政府对于美国向其加征50%关税的"强烈愤 慨"。 信中提到，根据美国政府数据，过去15年巴西对美国的商品和服务贸易逆差约为4100亿美元。自4月2日美方宣布"对等关税"以来，巴西仍一直愿 意"保持与美国政府真诚的对话，以寻求改善双边贸易的替代方案"。 特朗普9日在社交媒体上发布致卢拉的信函，威胁将自8月1日起对所有从巴西进口的商品征收50%关税，同时要求卢拉政府停止对前总统博索纳罗 的司法调查，称其遭遇"政治迫害"。巴西政府及卢拉都强硬发声批驳，并表示将"对等回应"美国。 连续发声谴责 近日来，巴西政府连续发声，谴责美国针对巴西的不当言论和不当调查举措。巴西政府15日再次谴责并拒绝接受美方就博索纳罗所涉政变案的言 论。巴西外交部在声明中批评特朗普政府将经 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - China's economic recovery in the first half of the year was supported by fiscal stimulus and "front - loading exports", but the foundation for economic stabilization needs further consolidation. The "anti - involution" policy expectations in multiple industries are rising, and attention should be paid to the possible further strengthening of pro - growth policies at the Politburo meeting in July [1]. - After the passage of the "Big Beautiful" Act, Trump has shifted his focus to external pressure to accelerate tariff negotiations, and the impact of tariff events on demand expectations needs to be monitored [1]. - The current commodity fundamentals are still weak, and a cautious attitude should be maintained towards the implementation of policy expectations, while the volatility of commodity prices may remain high [2]. Summary by Related Catalogs Market Analysis - **Domestic Economy**: In May, domestic investment data weakened, especially in the real estate sector, which may drag down fiscal revenue and the entire real - estate chain. Exports were also under pressure. Only consumption showed resilience. China's GDP in the first half of the year increased by 5.3% year - on - year, higher than the annual target of 5%. In June, the manufacturing PMI rebounded, and the added value of industrial enterprises above designated size increased by 6.8% year - on - year, with rapid growth in the production of new - energy vehicles and industrial robots. However, the year - on - year growth rate of social retail sales slowed to 4.8% in June, and infrastructure and manufacturing investment declined [1]. - **Policy Expectations**: Since July, relevant departments have emphasized the governance of low - price and disorderly competition among enterprises, and the "anti - involution" policy expectations in industries such as photovoltaic, lithium battery, and automobile have increased [1]. - **US Situation**: Trump signed the "Big Beautiful" tax and spending bill, which may increase the US government debt by $3.4 trillion in the next decade. The US has entered a stage of "easy to loosen, difficult to tighten" policies. The US 6 - month PPI annual rate was 2.3%, the lowest since September 2024, and the month - on - month rate was flat. Trump has accelerated tariff negotiations, and attention should be paid to the impact of tariffs on demand expectations [1]. Commodity Market - **Domestic Supply - Sensitive Sectors**: The black and new - energy metal sectors are the most sensitive to domestic supply - side changes. The black sector is still dragged down by downstream demand expectations, and the supply constraints in the non - ferrous sector have not been alleviated [2]. - **Overseas Inflation - Benefiting Sectors**: The energy and non - ferrous sectors benefit significantly from overseas inflation expectations. In the short term, the geopolitical premium in the energy sector has ended, and the supply is expected to be relatively loose in the medium term. OPEC+ will increase production by 548,000 barrels per day in August, higher than expected [2]. - **Agricultural Products**: There are no short - term weather disturbances in agricultural products, and the fluctuation range is relatively limited [2]. Strategy - For commodities and stock index futures, it is recommended to allocate long positions in industrial products on dips [3]. To - Do News - **Stock Market**: On July 16, the three major A - share indices declined slightly, with the ChiNext Index rising and then falling back. Pharmaceutical and robot concept stocks were strong, while the silicone sector adjusted [1][4]. - **Interest Rate**: The President of the Dallas Fed, Logan, supports maintaining the interest rate unchanged to cool inflation and believes that if inflation and the labor market weaken, interest rate cuts may be considered [1][4]. - **Tariff and Trade**: Trump is accelerating tariff negotiations, with tariffs on some countries already determined or to be announced. The US has also launched investigations into the trade practices of some countries, and the impact of these tariff events on demand expectations needs to be monitored [1][5]. - **Energy**: The US API crude oil inventory increased last week, and the US has threatened to withdraw from the International Energy Agency due to its support for green energy [2][5].

Core Insights - The U.S. Producer Price Index (PPI) for June unexpectedly remained flat, influenced by a stronger dollar, leading to a decline in gold prices [1] - Economists suggest that the Consumer Price Index (CPI) and PPI data indicate a projected month-over-month increase of 0.27% in the Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) index, which is better than initial concerns during the announcement of reciprocal tariffs by President Trump [1] - Despite these indicators, there are concerns regarding the potential impact of increased tariffs set for August 1, as businesses may have depleted their pre-tariff inventories [1]

Summary of Conference Call on Tariff Impact on OEM Industry and Brand Owners Industry Overview - The discussion focuses on the impact of increased tariffs on the OEM (Original Equipment Manufacturer) industry and brand owners in the footwear and apparel sector [1] - Key regions mentioned include Southeast Asia, particularly Vietnam, Cambodia, Indonesia, Bangladesh, and Sri Lanka, which face tariffs ranging from over 30% to more than 40% [2] Core Insights and Arguments - **Tariff Implications**: The imposition of tariffs means that various stakeholders, including manufacturers, brand owners, and consumers, will share the burden of increased costs. Initially, brands will absorb the tariffs, but over time, costs will be passed on to consumers through price increases and reduced discounts [4][10] - **Profit Margin Impact**: The average profit margin for footwear and apparel manufacturers is around 10%. The tariff differences among Southeast Asian countries create significant implications for these manufacturers, especially given China's tariffs reaching 145% [2] - **U.S. Import Dependency**: The U.S. remains the largest export market for China, with a declining dependency on Chinese textile and apparel imports from 37% in 2017 to 26% in 2023. However, China still leads in textile and apparel imports to the U.S. [3] - **Cost Sharing Dynamics**: In the short term, brands may absorb tariff costs, but mid-term strategies will involve sharing costs among supply chains, brands, and consumers. Long-term, consumers are expected to bear the majority of the additional costs [4][10] - **Brand Pricing Strategies**: Brands with higher pricing power, such as luxury and premium brands, can cover tariff costs with smaller price increases (around 3% to 5%), while lower-tier brands may face more significant impacts on their profit margins [11] Additional Important Points - **Geopolitical and Logistical Considerations**: The OEM industry must consider geopolitical stability, logistics, and cultural factors when deciding on production locations. The transition to new production sites is complex and requires careful planning [6] - **Supplier Relationships**: The ability of OEMs to negotiate with brands and their position within the supply chain are critical for managing tariff impacts. Brands may seek to negotiate cost-sharing arrangements based on the value chain contributions of OEMs [13] - **Market Dynamics**: The OEM sector is expected to see a consolidation of market share among leading suppliers, as smaller players may struggle to adapt to the increased cost pressures and operational challenges [16] - **Future Outlook**: The expectation is that the burden of tariffs will not be a long-term issue for OEMs, as they will eventually pass costs to consumers. The focus will remain on maintaining competitive pricing and managing inventory effectively [15] This summary encapsulates the key points discussed in the conference call regarding the implications of tariffs on the OEM industry and brand owners, highlighting the dynamics of cost-sharing, market dependency, and strategic responses to tariff pressures.