全球阿拉比卡咖啡市场的结构性矛盾持续凸显。拉长周期来看，虽然价格创出历史新高，但是阿拉比 卡咖啡产量仍低于历史最高产量，阿拉比卡咖啡产量占比逐年下降的趋势更加明显。USDA 预计 25/26 年 全球阿拉比卡咖啡产量较历史最高产量 630 万吨（18/19 年）低 47 万吨（-7.53%），罗布斯塔咖啡产量 则创出历史新高。从消费结构来看，近年现磨咖啡消费快速增长，对阿拉比卡咖啡的需求旺盛。一方面是 产量下降，另一方面是需求增长，阿拉比卡咖啡市场的结构性矛盾持续凸显。 2025 年 10 月 10 日 咖啡：结构性矛盾凸显 | 周小球 | 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0001891 | zhouxiaoqiu@gtht.com | | --- | --- | --- | | 尹恺宜 | 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0019456 | yinkaiyi@gtht.com | | 李隽钰 | 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0021380 | lijunyu@gtht.com | 报告导读： 2023 年 4 季度以来，在全球农产品价格震荡下行至生产成本附近的大背景下，ICE 美国咖啡价格逆势 大幅上涨并创出历史新高，目前仍处于历史 ...

刚翻到卢拉在美国《纽约时报》的署名文章，开篇第一句就透着股不绕弯子的直接："我决定写这篇文 章，与美国总统进行一次开放而坦率的对话"。翻译过来其实就是：别扯别的，先说说那 40% 的关税能 不能撤了 这事儿得从 8 月初说起。特朗普一声令下，美国对巴西输美产品加征 40% 从价关税，原本 10% 的税率 一下飙到 50%。当时巴西财长阿达德刚宣布要和美国财长开线上会晤，转头就收到取消通知，连重新 安排的请求都石沉大海。这种被摆一道的滋味，换谁都得火大。卢拉在总统府开会时拍了桌子："美国 对其他国家事务指手画脚，是对主权的侵犯"，这话里的火气隔着屏幕都能感觉到。 最惨的是那些靠出口吃饭的巴西商家。圣保罗郊外的咖啡种植户安东尼奥，我看他接受采访时手里攥着 枯萎的咖啡豆，声音都在抖："以前一斤咖啡豆能赚 3 美元，现在加了关税，卖去美国反而要倒贴钱。" 美国市场占巴西咖啡出口的 16%，30 多万户咖啡家庭就靠这个活计。更要命的是浓缩橙汁，美国 90% 的进口橙汁来自巴西，加征的关税直接吞噬了 72% 的商品价值，仓库里堆着的货根本卖不动，老板们 只能眼睁睁看着过期。 巴西航空工业公司的日子更难熬。CEO 戈麦斯・ ...

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the impact of climate change on coffee production, highlighting the rising prices of coffee beans and the shift in farming practices in Yunnan, China, where farmers are increasingly growing coffee instead of traditional crops due to higher profitability [2][16]. Group 1: Coffee Price Dynamics - Coffee prices have surged, with the procurement price for fresh coffee fruit in Yunnan increasing from 3-5 yuan per pound to around 11 yuan, nearly tripling within a year [2]. - The price of raw coffee beans has also risen significantly, with some reports indicating prices reaching 80-100 yuan per kilogram, compared to 35-40 yuan in previous years [16]. Group 2: Climate Change Effects - Climate change is causing a reduction in the suitable growing areas for Arabica coffee, which is highly sensitive to temperature and rainfall changes [4][9]. - The production of Arabica coffee is expected to decline as climate conditions become less favorable, with predictions indicating that by 2050, suitable areas for coffee cultivation could decrease by about 50% [21][22]. Group 3: Coffee Production Challenges - The coffee cultivation process is lengthy, taking at least 5 years from seed to fruit-bearing, with optimal production occurring between 10-15 years [6]. - Factors such as excessive rainfall and drought are increasingly affecting coffee maturity and yield, leading to challenges in production [7][9]. Group 4: Pest and Disease Impact - Climate change is exacerbating pest issues, with the coffee borer beetle becoming more prevalent due to rising temperatures, leading to significant economic losses for coffee producers [9][11]. - The increased prevalence of pests and diseases is raising the cost of coffee production, further straining smallholder farmers who already operate on thin margins [19]. Group 5: Consumer Impact - Consumers may face higher prices for coffee as producers and companies pass on the increased costs associated with climate change and production challenges [19]. - Despite rising coffee bean prices, many consumers continue to purchase coffee at lower prices due to the relatively small proportion of coffee bean costs in the overall price of coffee products [16][18]. Group 6: Future of Coffee Production - The coffee industry is exploring the cultivation of more resilient coffee varieties that can withstand climate challenges, such as the Excelsa coffee variety, which is gaining attention for its drought and pest resistance [22][23]. - Companies are beginning to recognize the importance of sustainable practices to mitigate climate risks, with some, like Starbucks, committing to ethical sourcing and sustainable supply chains [24].

Core Insights - Yunnan is the largest coffee-producing province in China, with significant growth in coffee exports in the first half of the year, targeting 34 countries and regions including the Netherlands, Germany, and Vietnam [1] - The price of Yunnan coffee beans has risen sharply, influenced by international coffee prices reaching a 50-year high, with prices increasing from 40 yuan/kg at the end of last year to around 66 yuan/kg in May this year [3] - The coffee industry in Yunnan is experiencing a boom, with a reported export value of over 770 million yuan in the first eight months of the year, making it the largest coffee exporter in China [7] Production and Market Dynamics - Yunnan's coffee production capacity is expanding due to increasing domestic consumption and overseas orders, with a daily production of about 2 tons of roasted beans in a processing facility [1][3] - The coffee planting area in Yunnan is projected to reach 1.267 million acres by the end of 2024, with an expected production of 146,000 tons and an agricultural output value of nearly 5 billion yuan, reflecting a 13% year-on-year growth [12] - The coffee industry is transitioning from raw material supply to brand output, with a focus on quality improvement and technological innovation [13] Export Trends and Opportunities - The demand for Yunnan coffee is increasing, with overseas orders driving industry upgrades and a shift towards exporting processed coffee products such as roasted beans and instant coffee [18] - The global coffee market is projected to grow significantly, with estimates of reaching 840.23 billion yuan in 2024 and 1,107.82 billion yuan by 2030, indicating a compound annual growth rate of 4.72% [16] - The coffee industry in Yunnan is enhancing its production processes to meet the evolving demands of international markets, including the introduction of modern production lines for cold brew coffee [14]

（原标题：哥伦比亚咖啡协会警告关税差异或引发三角贸易） 据哥伦比亚《时代报》9月22日报道，哥伦比亚咖啡种植者全国联合会经理巴哈蒙表示，美国对印 尼、越南及巴西等国咖啡征收高额关税，而哥伦比亚仅为10%。虽然这为哥方出口带来机遇，但受制于 库存不足，难以满足新增需求。他警告，关税差异可能促使他国咖啡经由哥伦比亚转口美国，演变成难 以管控的三角贸易，危及哥伦比亚咖啡质量与声誉。巴哈蒙呼吁政府尽快采取监管措施，避免市场扭 曲。 ...

Group 1 - The upcoming 2025 Chinese Farmers' Harvest Festival is promoting the integration of agriculture, culture, commerce, and tourism, injecting vitality into rural revitalization [1] - In Changde, Hunan, over 200 acres of kiwifruit are being sold online, allowing more than 100 local households to increase their income through job opportunities [3] - In Pu'er, Yunnan, the coffee industry is being integrated with tourism to create immersive experiences, establishing a new urban identity for the city [5] Group 2 - The 2025 Farmers' Harvest Festival activities in Zunyi, Guizhou, are attracting many tourists, featuring events like tasting banquets and agricultural product exhibitions [7] - During the fishing season at Hengshui Lake in Hebei, various activities such as cultural markets and non-heritage displays are enhancing the tourism experience [9]

大巴车转过最后一个弯道，眼前豁然开朗——背靠云雾缭绕的高黎贡山，面向壮阔奔涌的怒江，有 70多年咖啡种植历史、种植面积超万亩的新寨村坐落于此。 "这里的咖啡一年几熟？""咖啡园雇佣了多少员工？""目前是否有出口项目？"9月19日，2025"一带一 路"中外媒体采访行"丝路奖"采风团来到云南保山隆阳区新寨村，对这个有"咖啡第一村"美誉的地方，中 外记者们兴致盎然，聆听讲解，不断提问，手中纸笔仔细记录着。 千米海拔、年均25℃气温、700毫米降水以及干热河谷气候……新寨村凭借咖啡种植得天独厚的自然 条件，铸就了保山小粒咖啡"浓而不苦、香而不烈、略带果酸"的独特风味。近年来，新寨村推动普通咖 啡向精品咖啡转型升级，探索咖旅融合新玩法，用一杯咖啡，酿出乡村全面振兴的醇厚滋味。 何文俊带领采风团缓步向前，讲述咖啡从种植到收获的过程。中外记者专注聆听着，不时俯身观察 咖啡树的细节，眼中满是好奇与赞叹。庄园内目之所及，远处是群山叠嶂，流云环抱；近处是丛丛咖啡 果树，翠绿枝叶间可见累累果实。景色宜人，引得中外记者不时驻足观赏，与眼前的秀美风光频频合 影。 "油柑咖啡豆的香味混合了橄榄、水蜜桃、西柚等等，在我们这里广受好评。" ...

位于帕特罗西尼乌产区的努内斯咖啡庄园已有41年咖啡种植历史，其咖啡主要通过合作社出口到欧 洲、美国。庄园主奥斯马尔·努内斯认为，美国加征关税对双方都不利，但美方损失可能更大。 目前，美国约三分之一未烘焙咖啡来自巴西，是巴西咖啡最大出口目的地。2024年，美国从巴西进 口814万袋咖啡，占其总消费量的33%。 "美国有许多烘焙商和咖啡品牌依赖从巴西进口，而我们还可以开拓其他市场，所以目前美国关税 政策对其自身的负面影响可能超过巴西。"努内斯表示，中国市场巨大，而且中国消费者注重产品质 量，巴西可以提供符合需求的高品质咖啡。 经过滤杂、分拣、装袋、打包等工序，来自种植园的咖啡豆成袋堆放在咖啡合作社仓库等待发货。 记者走访的多家合作社已基本没有发往美国的订单。相关负责人表示，很多美国订单都在关税生效前发 走，今年咖啡歉收，而欧洲、澳大利亚等地需求依旧强劲，所以并没有太多库存压力。此外，咖啡生豆 储存时间长达三年，出口商也在等待更好时机。 卡尔穆咖啡种植者合作社商业主管丹尼尔·保罗表示，关税带来的首要影响是价格上涨。"我们希望 两国能够达成协议，但必须通过对话协商。此外，我们需要开拓新市场。" 新华社里约热内卢9月1 ...

Company Overview - Nujiang Lisu Coffee Co., Ltd. has been established with a registered capital of 100,000 RMB [1] - The legal representative of the company is Li Jixiu [1] Business Scope - The company is engaged in various licensed projects including catering services, which require approval from relevant authorities before operation [1] - General projects include coffee bean planting, agricultural product sales, daily ceramic product sales, household appliance sales, and retail and wholesale of edible agricultural products [1] - The company also offers internet sales (excluding licensed products), food internet sales (only pre-packaged food), and operates small grocery stores [1] - Additional services include park management, tourism project planning and consulting, travel agency services, leisure sightseeing activities, scenic area management, initial processing of edible agricultural products, fruit and flower planting, cocoa bean planting, and agricultural horticultural services [1] - The company can independently conduct business activities based on its business license, except for projects that require approval [1]

Group 1 - The Yunnan Baoshan Gaoligong International Boutique Coffee Cultural Park is recognized for its rich coffee aroma and serves as a cultural and historical exploration site for coffee [1][3] - The region of Baoshan, particularly the Lujingba area, is identified as a core production area for small-grain coffee, benefiting from unique geographical and climatic conditions, which have led to its designation as a "golden zone" for coffee cultivation by the International Coffee Organization (ICO) [3][5] - Baoshan small-grain coffee has received several accolades, including the "Eureka" gold award at the 42nd World Coffee Expo in Brussels in 1993, recognition as a national geographical indication product in 2010, and inclusion in the first batch of EU-protected geographical indication products in China in 2021 [3] Group 2 - The coffee from Baoshan is noted for its unique flavor profile, described as rich without bitterness and aromatic without being overpowering, making it a medium for cultural exchange between China and other countries [5][7] - International visitors have expressed surprise and appreciation for the quality of Chinese coffee, highlighting its potential to enhance cross-cultural dialogue and connections [5][7]