Market Overview - The A-share market experienced a slight decline with a V-shaped trend, while the bond market corrected and precious metals continued to rise to new highs [1] Market Analysis Stock Market - The A-share market showed a "divergent fluctuation, tail-end repair" characteristic, with the Shanghai Composite Index and Shenzhen Component Index closing down by 0.18% and 0.29% respectively, while the ChiNext Index rose by 0.21% [2] - The market saw a total trading volume of 2.52 trillion yuan, indicating a significant increase in trading activity [2] - The technology sector remained a focal point, with semiconductor equipment and banking sectors leading gains, while tourism and consumer services faced significant adjustments [2] - The afternoon rebound was driven by technology stocks, particularly in sectors like photolithography machines and storage chips, reflecting investor confidence in the technology direction [2] Bond Market - The bond market experienced a collective adjustment, with long-term bonds showing greater weakness; the 30-year Treasury futures contract fell by 0.67%, reaching a new low since April [6] - The yield on the 10-year Treasury rose by 1.05 basis points to 1.7980%, while the 30-year yield increased by 1.6 basis points to 2.0990% [7] - The overall funding environment remained tight, with the central bank conducting a 276.1 billion yuan reverse repurchase operation, leading to a net withdrawal of 10.9 billion yuan [7] Commodity Market - Precious metals, particularly gold and silver, reached new historical highs, with gold prices rising by 1.99% and silver by 1.78% [8] - The overall commodity market saw a decline, with the South China Commodity Index dropping by 1.09%, while agricultural and energy products performed poorly [8] - The long-term trend for precious metals is expected to remain upward due to support from U.S. Federal Reserve monetary policy expectations and geopolitical risks [8] Trading Hotspots Recent Hot Products - Gold: Supported by central bank purchases and Fed rate cuts [12] - Artificial Intelligence: Accelerated capital expenditure by global tech giants [12] - Domestic Chips: Significant potential for domestic substitution due to technological breakthroughs [12] - Robotics: Accelerating industrialization trends [12] - Consumer Goods: Benefiting from RMB appreciation and market style shifts [12] Core Thoughts Summary - The market is expected to experience short-term fluctuations, with a potential shift from "technology-led" to "balanced allocation" [13] - The technology sector's strong logic sub-sectors are anticipated to perform well, while dividend stocks will also highlight their allocation value [13] - In the commodity sector, precious metals and non-ferrous metals are likely to see smoother price increases due to global liquidity [13]

Domestic Market Overview - The domestic market experienced wide fluctuations and a slight decline on September 23, with the Shanghai Composite Index closing at 3821.83 points, down 0.18%, and the Shenzhen Component Index at 13119.82 points, down 0.29% [1][4][8] - Among the 30 CITIC first-level industries, 5 sectors saw an increase, with banking, coal, and electric equipment & new energy leading the gains, while consumer services, comprehensive finance, and retail experienced significant declines [1][4][8] Overseas Market Overview - On the same day, all three major U.S. stock indices closed lower, with the Dow Jones down 0.19%, S&P 500 down 0.55%, and Nasdaq down 0.95%. Amazon fell over 3%, and Nvidia dropped nearly 3%, leading the declines [2][4] Key News Highlights - The first batch of pilot platforms in Shanghai was announced, covering new energy storage and humanoid robots, indicating a push towards innovation in these sectors [3][13][14] - In August, the total electricity consumption in China grew by 5% year-on-year, with the first and second industries maintaining rapid growth, while the third industry and residential electricity consumption saw a decline [15][16] Driving Factors - The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology emphasized the need to cultivate emerging industries and accelerate the development of new pillar industries, including humanoid robots and quantum information [9] - A total of 1108 stocks rose while 4266 fell in the A-share market, reflecting a mixed sentiment among investors [9]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - On September 23, the current - month contracts of the four major index futures showed mixed trends. IF rose 0.28%, IH rose 0.21%, IC fell 0.58%, and IM fell 0.92% [1] - On the trading day, the total trading volume of index futures rebounded, indicating an increase in investors' trading enthusiasm. The total trading volume of IF, IH, IC, and IM increased by 60,842 lots, 20,358 lots, 67,179 lots, and 115,729 lots respectively. In terms of positions, the total positions of IF, IH, IC, and IM increased by 20,632 lots, 2,169 lots, 23,060 lots, and 39,228 lots respectively [1][2] - The Shanghai Composite Index fell 0.18% to 3,821.83 points, the Shenzhen Component Index fell 0.29%, and the ChiNext Index rose 0.21%. A - shares traded 2.52 trillion yuan throughout the day, up from 2.14 trillion yuan the previous day [7] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Index Futures Data - **CSI 300 and Its Futures**: The closing price of CSI 300 was 4,519.78, down 0.06%. Among its futures, IF2510 closed at 4,510.2, up 0.28%, with a basis of - 9.58, and its trading volume was 69.63 billion yuan [1] - **SSE 50 and Its Futures**: The closing price of SSE 50 was 2,919.51, down 0.09%. IH2510 closed at 2,923.2, up 0.21%, with a basis of 3.69, and its trading volume was 19.14 billion yuan [1] - **CSI 500 and Its Futures**: The closing price of CSI 500 was 7,180.71, down 0.61%. IC2510 closed at 7,083.2, down 0.58%, with a basis of - 97.51, and its trading volume was 73.63 billion yuan [1] - **CSI 1000 and Its Futures**: The closing price of CSI 1000 was 7,408.07, down 1.09%. IM2510 closed at 7,305.6, down 0.92%, with a basis of - 102.47, and its trading volume was 120.76 billion yuan [1] 3.2 Top 20 Member Positions in Index Futures - **IF Contracts**: For IF2510, long - order increase was 6,429, and short - order increase was 6,445. For IF2511, the net change in long orders was 17,161, and the net change in short orders was 18,567 [5] - **IH Contracts**: For IH2510, long - order increase was 1,447, and short - order increase was 840. For IH2512, the net change in long orders was 2,390, and the net change in short orders was 1,128 [5] - **IC Contracts**: For IC2510, long - order increase was 8,153, and short - order increase was 7,619. For IC2512, the net change in long orders was 17,770, and the net change in short orders was 17,433 [5] - **IM Contracts**: For IM2510, long - order increase was 8,337, and short - order increase was 8,376. For IM2512, the net change in long orders was 24,250, and the net change in short orders was 24,467 [5] 3.3 Trend Strength - The trend strength of IF and IH is 1, and the trend strength of IC and IM is 1. The trend strength ranges from - 2 to 2, with - 2 being the most bearish and 2 being the most bullish [6] 3.4 Important Drivers - The Minister of Industry and Information Technology, Li Lecheng, said that during the "15th Five - Year Plan" period, the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology will focus on new industrialization, implement actions to cultivate emerging industries, and open up new tracks such as humanoid robots, brain - computer interfaces, the metaverse, and quantum information [7] - In August, the total social electricity consumption reached 1.0154 trillion kWh, a year - on - year increase of 5.0%. Industrial electricity consumption was 590.9 billion kWh, accounting for nearly 60%, and the electricity consumption of the manufacturing industry increased by 5.5% year - on - year, the highest this year [7]

Market Overview - The three major indices opened lower, with the ChiNext index down 0.79%. As of the market opening, the Shanghai Composite Index was at 3804.48 points, down 0.45%; the Shenzhen Component Index was at 13037.08 points, down 0.63%; and the ChiNext index was at 3089.90 points, down 0.79% [1] Economic Data - In August, the total electricity consumption in China reached 10,154 billion kilowatt-hours, a year-on-year increase of 5.0%, with industrial electricity consumption accounting for nearly 60% and manufacturing electricity consumption growing by 5.5% year-on-year [1] - From the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology, it was reported that from January to July 2025, the sales of new passenger cars equipped with combination driving assistance systems reached 7.76 million units, with a penetration rate of 62.6%, an increase of 5.7 million units and 40 percentage points compared to the same period in 2021 [1] Corporate Announcements - Ganli Pharmaceutical announced a supply framework agreement related to insulin with a minimum value of 3 billion yuan [2] - Wolong Nuclear Materials announced a planned investment of 1 billion yuan to establish a new materials project in Suzhou [2] - Hualing Cable announced a plan to acquire control of SanZhu Intelligent for no more than 270 million yuan, accelerating entry into the robotics sector [2] - Shengmei Shanghai announced the delivery of its first KrF process front-end coating and developing equipment to a leading logic wafer factory in China [4] - Dongshan Precision announced plans to issue H-shares and list on the Hong Kong Stock Exchange [5] - Aowei New Materials completed the transfer of shares, with the controlling shareholder changing to a holding platform established by an affiliate of Zhiyuan Robotics [6] - Baijin Medical announced that its radiofrequency ablation system has entered the special review process for innovative medical devices [13] Market Sentiment - Zhongyuan Securities noted that the A-share market is experiencing a rebound and wide fluctuations, with banks, precious metals, engineering construction, and shipping ports performing well, while tourism, small metals, real estate, and software development sectors lagged [9] - Dongguan Securities observed that the A-share market is in a consolidation phase, with structural opportunities still significant, particularly in the semiconductor industry, which continues to show strength [10]

Group 1: US-China Relations - Wang Yi's meeting with the US congressional delegation is seen as a "ice-breaking" visit, marking the first such visit since 2019, which may help stabilize US-China relations[2] - Continued high-level exchanges between the two countries are encouraged to explore cooperation and address differences[2] Group 2: Market Trends - Tianhong's Yu'ebao money market fund has reduced its custody fee from 0.08% to 0.07%, marking the first fee reduction in over 10 years, amidst a broader trend of fee reductions in money market funds[2] - The overall market sentiment is expected to improve as capital market reforms continue to release benefits for investors[2] Group 3: Economic Indicators - The National Energy Administration reported that total electricity consumption reached 1,015.4 billion kWh in August, a year-on-year increase of 5.0%, indicating strong domestic electricity demand[4] - The 10-year government bond yield is currently at 1.877%, with a change of 1.44 basis points, while the DR007 rate is at 1.475%, down by 1.34 basis points[5] Group 4: Stock Market Performance - The A-share market's trading volume over the past six months is reported at 25,185 billion yuan, with a turnover rate of 4.75%[14] - The top three performing sectors are banking, coal, and electric equipment, indicating sector-specific investment opportunities[20]

Key Points Summary Core Insights - The report highlights the ongoing recovery in various sectors, particularly in the automotive and semiconductor industries, driven by supportive government policies and increasing consumer demand [5][19][33]. Domestic Market Performance - The A-share market has shown a wide fluctuation, with the Shanghai Composite Index closing at 3,821.83, down 0.18%, and the Shenzhen Component Index at 13,119.82, down 0.29% [3]. - The average P/E ratios for the Shanghai Composite and ChiNext are 15.61 and 49.58, respectively, indicating a suitable environment for medium to long-term investments [9][13]. Economic Indicators - In August, the national industrial added value increased by 5.2% year-on-year, while retail sales rose by 3.4% [10][11]. - The fixed asset investment saw a slight increase of 0.5%, but real estate development investment dropped by 12.9% [10]. Industry Analysis - The automotive industry is experiencing a resurgence, with production and sales in August reaching 2.81 million and 2.86 million units, respectively, marking year-on-year increases of 12.96% and 16.44% [17][18]. - The semiconductor sector has shown robust growth, with the industry revenue for Q2 2025 reaching 188.43 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 13.87% [33]. Investment Recommendations - The report maintains a "stronger than the market" rating for the automotive sector, emphasizing the positive impact of government policies and the ongoing transition to electric vehicles [19][32]. - For the semiconductor industry, the report suggests focusing on domestic AI computing chip manufacturers, which are expected to gain market share due to increasing demand and supportive policies [36][37]. Sector-Specific Developments - The communication industry index outperformed the broader market, with an increase of 33.78% in August, driven by growth in 5G services and digital transformation initiatives [26][29]. - The lithium battery sector is also highlighted, with a significant year-on-year sales increase of 26.82% in August, supported by favorable policies and improved product competitiveness [32][20].

Group 1 - In August, China's total electricity consumption reached 10,154 billion kilowatt-hours, a year-on-year increase of 5.0%, with industrial electricity consumption accounting for nearly 60% and manufacturing electricity consumption growing by 5.5% year-on-year [2][3] - From January to July 2025, new car sales in China equipped with combined driving assistance systems reached 7.76 million units, with a penetration rate of 62.6%, an increase of 5.7 million units and 40 percentage points compared to the same period in 2021 [3] - Ganfeng Lithium announced a supply framework agreement for insulin with a minimum value of 3 billion yuan [8] - Woer Heat Shrinkable Material announced a planned investment of 1 billion yuan to build a new materials project in Suzhou [8] - Hualing Cable announced a plan to acquire control of SanZhu Intelligent for no more than 270 million yuan, accelerating entry into the robotics sector [8] - Shengmei Shanghai announced the delivery of its first KrF process front-end coating and developing equipment to a leading logic wafer foundry in China [8] - Dongshan Precision announced plans to issue H-shares and list on the Hong Kong Stock Exchange [8] - Aikang Medical announced that its radiofrequency ablation system has entered the special review process for innovative medical devices [8] Group 2 - The OECD projected a global economic growth rate of 3.2% for 2025, an upward adjustment of 0.3 percentage points from the June forecast, while the growth rate for 2026 is expected to slow to 2.9%, unchanged from the June forecast [7] - The Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell reiterated that there is no risk-free policy path in the future, noting that some asset prices are relatively high compared to historical levels, with stock price valuations appearing quite elevated [15] - The Federal Reserve's Goolsbee indicated that the neutral interest rate is 100-125 basis points lower than the current rate, suggesting that the Fed's policy is moderately restrictive and there are no plans to consider a 50 basis point rate cut [16]

Macro Economy - The People's Bank of China Governor Pan Gongsheng met with Ray Dalio, founder of Bridgewater Associates, to discuss international economic conditions and financial market dynamics [3] - The State Council Information Office announced that China has established the largest and highest-quality education system, with over 12 million children benefiting from the free preschool policy this year [3] - Domestic refined oil price adjustments have been suspended for the sixth time this year, with the latest monitoring indicating a price change of less than 50 yuan per ton [3] - The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology aims to accelerate the development of emerging pillar industries and establish a growth mechanism for future industry investments [3] - The State Administration for Market Regulation has taken measures against Toutiao and UC for displaying harmful information and extreme sensitive content [4] Investment News - A-shares experienced wide fluctuations, with major banks rising by 2% and semiconductor equipment stocks hitting historical highs, while stablecoins and tourism sectors saw significant declines [6] - The Hong Kong Hang Seng Index closed down 0.7%, with net selling of 4.069 billion HKD from southbound funds [6] - The A-share market marked the one-year anniversary of the "9.24" rally, with the Shanghai Composite Index up nearly 40% and the Shenzhen Component Index up over 60% [6] - A new wave of fee reductions has begun in money market funds, with Tianhong's Yu'ebao reducing its custody fee for the first time in over ten years [7] Company Movements - Tianpu Co., Ltd. has seen its stock price hit the limit up for 15 consecutive trading days, with a cumulative increase of 317.72%, leading to a suspension of trading [9] - Dongshan Precision is planning to issue H-shares and list on the Hong Kong Stock Exchange, with details yet to be confirmed [10] - Zhiyuan Robotics has fully opened its GO-1 general embodiment model, marking a significant milestone in embodied intelligence technology [10] - Hongmeng Zhixing announced the launch of its new model, the Shangjie H5, with a starting price of 159,800 yuan and over 160,000 pre-orders [10] - Ruifeng New Materials indirectly invested 90 million yuan in Moer Thread through a fund, with a total investment amount of 29.735 million yuan [10] US Market Overview - On September 23, US stock indices closed lower, with the Dow down 0.19% and the S&P 500 down 0.55%, led by declines in major tech stocks [11] - Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell indicated that the risks in the job market were a key reason for the recent interest rate cut [11] - The OECD projected a global economic growth rate of 3.2% for 2025, an increase of 0.3 percentage points from previous forecasts [11]

Market Overview - The Shanghai Composite Index closed at 3821.83, down 0.18%, while the Shenzhen Component Index fell by 0.29% to 13119.82. The ChiNext Index increased by 0.21% to 3114.55, and the STAR Market 50 Index decreased by 0.10% to 1407.30. The CSI 300 Index also saw a slight decline of 0.06%, closing at 4519.78 [1][7]. Industry Dynamics - In August 2025, China's domestic gaming market revenue was 29.263 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 13.01%. The decline was attributed to the high revenue base from the previous year due to the success of the game "Black Myth: Wukong" [5][23]. - OpenAI and NVIDIA announced a strategic partnership to build and deploy AI data centers with a capacity of at least 10 gigawatts, with NVIDIA planning to invest up to 100 billion USD to support this initiative [5][24]. - In August 2025, China's engineering machinery exports increased by 15.4% year-on-year, with total exports amounting to 5.115 billion USD. The total trade volume for engineering machinery in the first eight months of 2025 reached 40.398 billion USD, reflecting an 11% year-on-year growth [5][26]. Company Updates - Bairen Medical (688198.SH) has entered the special review process for its radiofrequency ablation system, which is designed for treating atrial fibrillation [5][28]. - Xiangcai Co., Ltd. (600095.SH) announced that the audit and due diligence related to its major asset restructuring have been largely completed, with further steps to be taken in accordance with legal regulations [5][31].

证券研究报告 2025 年 9 月 24 日 星期三 【A 股市场大势研判】 市场全天探底回升，创业板尾盘快速翻红 市场表现： | 指数名称 | 收盘点位 | 涨跌幅 | 涨跌 | 上证指数分时图 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 上证指数 | 3821.83 | -0.18% | -6.74 | | | 深证成指 | 13119.82 | -0.29% | -38.16 | | | 沪深 300 | 4519.78 | -0.06% | -2.83 | | | 创业板 | 3114.55 | 0.21% | 6.67 | | | 科创 50 | 1407.30 | -0.10% | -1.34 | | | 北证 50 | 1547.45 | -2.63% | -41.74 | | 资料来源：东莞证券研究所，iFinD 数据 板块排名： | 申万一级涨幅前五 | | | 申万一级跌幅前五 | 热点板块 n | 涨幅前五 | 热点板块跌幅前五 | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 银行 | 1.52% ...