The clock is ticking toward a crisis. As a bitter political impasse between congressional Democrats and Republicans deepens, the risk of a partial US government shutdown beginning next week is rising, casting a long and anxious shadow over the nation's financial markets. ...

Group 1 - The risk of a partial government shutdown in the U.S. is increasing as Democrats and Republicans are at an impasse over funding proposals, which could impact financial regulatory operations and delay key economic data releases [1] - Historically, markets have been indifferent to government shutdowns, but this time may be different due to potential delays in critical economic data like monthly employment and inflation reports, leading to "blind decision-making" by the Federal Reserve [2] - A prolonged shutdown could solidify market expectations for interest rate cuts, resulting in a steeper U.S. Treasury yield curve as investors struggle to assess the extent of economic slowdown [2] Group 2 - Financial regulatory agencies like the SEC may significantly reduce staff and operations during a shutdown, retaining only core teams, which would impair their ability to conduct essential functions such as corporate filing reviews and market oversight [3][4] - The CFTC plans to place most of its employees on unpaid leave during a shutdown, halting most market regulatory activities, while banking and consumer protection agencies will continue to operate normally as their funding is not dependent on Congress [4][5] - The IPO process will be adversely affected, as companies will be unable to proceed with listings without SEC approval, potentially stalling the momentum in the equity capital markets [6]

Report Investment Rating - Gold investment rating: ★☆☆, indicating a bullish bias but poor operability on the market [1] - Silver investment rating: ★☆☆, indicating a bullish bias but poor operability on the market [1] Core Viewpoint - The medium - term upward trend of precious metals remains unchanged, but short - term fluctuations have intensified, so it is advisable to stay on the sidelines [1] Other Key Points - Powell pointed out in a speech this week that the policy interest rate is still slightly restrictive and emphasized flexible adjustment based on data and economic prospects. Fed officials have a cautious attitude and are divided on subsequent interest rate cuts [1] - Attention should be paid to the US weekly initial jobless claims tonight, the PCE inflation data on Friday, and the progress of resolving the US government shutdown [1] - US Treasury Secretary Yellen believes that the Fed's interest rate has been too high for too long and that the US will enter an easing cycle. Powell should have signaled a 100 - 150 basis - point interest rate cut. FOMC voter Goolsbee warns against a series of interest rate cuts, while San Francisco Fed President Daly believes that further rate cuts may be needed [2] - As of September 19, global gold ETF holdings increased at the fastest pace in three years, with a total gold - holding volume of 3779.4 tons, reaching the highest level since August 2022. The net inflows in Q1 and Q2 this year were 226.6 tons and 170.5 tons respectively, far exceeding the same period last year [2] - As of September 19, the US's SPDR Gold Shares had the largest annual inflow of gold among global gold ETFs, with an annual increase in gold demand of 122.1 tons and a cumulative holding of about 994.4 tons. China's Huaan Yifu Gold ETF also had a significant inflow, with an annual increase in demand of 28.2 tons and a cumulative holding of about 74.7 tons [2]

The risk of a partial U.S. government shutdown beginning next week is rising as congressional Democrats and Republicans hit an impasse over how to continue to fund the federal government. ...

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Ratings - Gold investment rating: ★☆☆, indicating a bullish bias but poor market operability [1] - Silver investment rating: ★☆☆, indicating a bullish bias but poor market operability [1] Group 2: Core Views of the Report - Overnight, precious metals continued to strengthen. Powell pointed out that the policy rate is still slightly restrictive and emphasized flexible policy adjustment based on data and economic outlook. Geopolitical tensions are hard to resolve, and Trump said the US is ready to impose tariffs if Russia refuses to reach an agreement. The upward trend of precious metals remains unchanged, but short - term volatility may intensify [1] Group 3: Summary of Related Information Fed Officials' Statements - Powell: Policy rate is slightly restrictive, allowing better response to potential economic progress; tariff impact is a one - time transmission; decisions are "never based on political factors". His remarks may open the door for further rate cuts [2] - Goolsbee: Currently not considering a 50 - basis - point rate cut; the Fed's interest rate may eventually stabilize around 3% [2] - Bowman: Predicts three rate cuts in 2025 [2] - Bostic: Considers the current real neutral rate to be 1.25%; may support setting the inflation target range at 1.75% - 2.25% in the future [2] Trump's Statements - If Russia refuses to reach an agreement, the US is ready to impose tariffs; Ukraine can retake all lost territory with EU support; NATO countries should shoot down Russian planes entering NATO airspace; his relationship with Putin "unfortunately means nothing" [2] - Trump cancelled a meeting with two top - level Democrats in Congress on Tuesday to resolve issues hindering a funding agreement to avoid a federal government shutdown [2] OECD Forecast - Predicts global economic growth of 3.2% in 2025 (previously 2.9%) and 2.9% in 2026 (unchanged from previous forecast) [2]

Macro News - The Shanghai gold futures price is reported at 860.00 CNY per gram, with an increase of 1.03%, opening at 861.34 CNY per gram, reaching a high of 862.10 CNY and a low of 853.74 CNY [1] - The preliminary value of the US September S&P Global Manufacturing PMI is 52, matching expectations but down from the August final value of 53. The Services PMI preliminary value is 53.9, and the Composite PMI preliminary value is 53.6, both below expectations and marking a three-month low [1] - Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell indicated that many indicators, such as stock prices, are currently overvalued, but he stated that it is not a time of high financial stability risk. He did not provide any hints regarding potential interest rate cuts in the upcoming October meeting, disappointing the market [1] Institutional Views - There is some internal disagreement within the Federal Reserve regarding potential interest rate cuts for the remainder of the year, but the newly appointed member supports continued rate cuts. The next Federal Reserve Chair is expected to lean towards the accommodative stance of the Trump administration, leading to market optimism about two rate cuts this year [2] - The risk of a government shutdown in the US has increased due to the rejection of funding proposals. Global political risks remain, particularly with several countries supporting Palestinian statehood, which may suppress risk appetite [2] - Short-term volatility risks in stock markets, including China, are rising, potentially leading to changes in investment direction. The favorable performance of precious metals may attract more investment [2]

市场有意思的一幕再次发生了：美股和黄金同时创下新高。 前者是市场情绪被AI增长乐观预期裹挟；后者则是对美元信用略显悲观的审视。 （注：行情数据请以最新为准） 市场再押注 美联储进一步降息 据媒体报道，美联储降息预期最近又有几个催化： 1）美联储主席鲍威尔将发表讲话； 2）新任美联储理事米兰呼吁大幅降息； 3）PCE物价数据将发布。 北京时间9月24日凌晨，鲍威尔将就美国经济前景发表讲话。 就在一周前，他刚刚在议息会议上发表了降息25个BP的决定，但由于表示"降息举措是一项风险管理决策，没有必要快速调整利率"，一度被视为"放鹰"； 北京时间9月23日，新任美联储理事米兰呼吁大幅降息，以避免劳动力市场遭受不必要的损害。 米兰是特朗普最新任命的理事，因此其发声也被认为：美国政府有意在推动更大力度的降息； 北京时间9月26日，美联储"最看重的"通胀数据核心PCE物价指数将发布。 该数据直接关系到：评估关税政策对核心PCE通胀率的影响，如果通胀能够低于预期，将进一步为降息扫清障碍。此前鲍威尔表示："关税成本…… 主要 由处于出口商和消费者之间的企业承担。转嫁给消费者的部分非常少，而且比我们预期的更慢、更滞后，规模也更小 ...

Group 1: Energy Crude Oil - The short - term strategy is to sell at high prices, with the estimated average price of Brent crude in Q4 dropping to $63 per barrel from $67 in Q3. There are still geopolitical risks and supply disturbances [1] Fuel Oil - It is expected to follow crude oil in a weak and volatile pattern. High - sulfur demand is falling, and low - sulfur supply is under pressure, but both lack strong price drivers [19] Natural Gas (implied in LPG) - LPG is expected to trade in a bottom - grinding pattern. Supply has decreased slightly, demand has increased marginally, and the import cost is expected to improve [21] Coal (implied in Coke and Coking Coal) - Coke and coking coal prices are relatively firm due to high iron - water production. However, there is a game between price increases and decreases, and inventory is accumulating [14][15] Bitumen - It showed a relatively small decline in the oil products market. Demand is increasing due to pre - holiday rush work, and inventory is decreasing [20] Group 2: Metals Precious Metals - They are in a medium - term upward trend but should be treated with caution in the short term due to inflation pressure and geopolitical games [2] Base Metals - Aluminum: It is in a callback. Market drivers are weak, and it is necessary to pay attention to whether pre - holiday stocking can drive positive feedback between inventory and spot [3] - Zinc: Short - term rebounds may occur, but the overall strategy is to sell on rebounds due to the supply - demand imbalance during the holiday [6] - Lead: The fundamentals have improved in the short term, but the upward trend is under pressure due to external market supply [7] - Nickel: The supply disturbance has subsided, and the overall trend is weak [8] - Manganese Silicon and Ferrosilicon: In the context of "anti - involution", it is recommended to buy on dips [16][17] Iron and Steel - Steel prices are in a rebound but with limited upside due to weak demand. Iron ore is expected to fluctuate at a high level [12][13] Group 3: Chemicals Polycrystalline Silicon - The short - term futures may face a correction, but there may be a chance for a phased recovery if it stabilizes at the support level [10] Industrial Silicon - It is expected to continue the volatile pattern as the supply - demand contradiction persists [11] PVC and Caustic Soda - PVC may show a weak and volatile trend due to supply - demand imbalance. Caustic soda has a game between weak reality and strong expectations [27] PX and PTA - Their market expectations are weakening, and the processing margins have limited room for repair [28] Ethylene Glycol - It is under pressure due to new device expectations, but the current supply pressure is not large [29] Short - fiber and Bottle - grade Chip - Short - fiber can be considered for long - term allocation, while bottle - grade chip has limited room for processing margin recovery [30] Glass - It is in a pattern of high supply and weak demand. It is recommended to wait and see before the festival and look for long opportunities near the cost [31] 20 - rubber, Natural Rubber, and Butadiene Rubber - It is recommended to wait and see, paying attention to the impact of typhoon weather on supply [32] Urea - Supply is increasing, and the market may continue to be under pressure in the short term [22] Methanol - It is in a weak position in the short term, and attention should be paid to the actual implementation of overseas device gas restrictions [23] Pure Benzene - The reality is okay, but the expectation is weak due to high import expectations and poor downstream profits [24] Styrene - Supply is increasing more than demand, and the price trend is weak [25] Polypropylene and Plastic - They are in a weak and volatile pattern due to the game between supply and demand [26] Group 4: Agricultural Products Grains - Corn futures may continue to be weak at the bottom due to sufficient supply [38] Oilseeds and Oils - Soybean and soybean meal may continue to fluctuate in the short term, and soybean meal can be cautiously bullish in the long term. Soybean oil and palm oil should pay attention to trade trends and can be considered for long - term buying [34][35] Cotton - It is recommended to wait and see after the downward break. New cotton production is expected to be high, but the impact of possible抢购is controllable [40] Sugar - US sugar is under pressure, and the domestic market focuses on the next season's production estimate [41] Fruit - Apple futures are expected to decline in the short term due to expected high inventory [42] Wood - The price increase momentum is insufficient due to weak peak - season demand, and it is recommended to wait and see [43] Pulp - It is in a low - level volatile pattern, and attention should be paid to inventory and warehouse receipt changes [44] Group 5: Others Shipping - The container shipping index may return to the downward channel if the Maersk opening price continues to decline [18] Stock Index - The stock market is in a volatile state, and it is recommended to increase the allocation of technology - growth sectors in the medium term and consider the Hang Seng Technology Index [44] Bond - The bond market shows a structural differentiation, and the yield curve is expected to steepen [45]

Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant content provided. Core Views of the Report - The bearish trend in the crude oil market continues, with the estimated average price of Brent crude in Q4 dropping to $63 per barrel from $67 in Q3. The mid - term strategy is to short on rallies. For precious metals, the mid - term upward trend remains, but short - term caution is advised. Different commodities have their own supply - demand situations and price trends, with various investment suggestions for each [1][2]. Summaries by Commodity Energy - **Crude Oil**: The bearish trend persists, with geopolitical risks around the Iran nuclear negotiation and supply disruptions from Ukraine's attacks on Russian energy facilities. It is recommended to hold short positions with out - of - the - money call options [1]. - **Fuel Oil**: High - sulfur demand declines, and low - sulfur supply is under pressure. It is expected to follow crude oil in a weak - side oscillation, with potential price fluctuations due to geopolitical situations [19]. - **Asphalt**: Although crude oil prices are falling, asphalt shows relatively small declines. With increased pre - holiday terminal demand in the north and inventory reduction, the futures price shows a strong - side oscillation [20]. - **Liquefied Petroleum Gas (LPG)**: Supply and demand improve marginally, and the import cost expectation is positive. The market is expected to oscillate at the bottom [21]. Metals - **Aluminum**: The downstream start - up rate is seasonally increasing, but the inventory inflection point has not appeared. There is resistance at the March high, and the pre - holiday inventory and spot feedback should be monitored [3]. - **Cast Aluminum Alloy**: It follows the fluctuation of Shanghai aluminum, with tight scrap aluminum supply and expected tax policy adjustment increasing costs, showing stronger resilience [4]. - **Alumina**: The operating capacity hits a new high, and the inventory is rising. The supply is excessive, and the price is expected to reach the support level around 2,830 yuan [5]. - **Zinc**: LME and domestic inventories are both decreasing. Short - term rebounds may occur, but the overall strategy is to short on rebounds due to the supply - demand imbalance during the holiday [6]. - **Lead**: The fundamentals improve in the short term, but the external market is under pressure. The price is expected to rebound with resistance [7]. - **Nickel and Stainless Steel**: The supply disruption eases, and the overall trend is weak [8]. - **Iron Ore**: The supply is slightly stronger than last year, and the demand is supported by high hot - metal production. It is expected to oscillate at a high level [13]. - **Coke**: There is a game between price cuts and increases. The inventory is increasing, and it is recommended to go long on dips [14]. - **Coking Coal**: The production increases slightly, and the inventory rises. It is recommended to go long on dips [15]. - **Manganese Silicon**: The demand and production are increasing, and it is recommended to go long on dips in the "anti - involution" context [16]. - **Silicon Iron**: The demand is okay, and the supply recovers to a high level. It is recommended to go long on dips [17]. Chemicals - **Polysilicon**: The futures price may face a correction, but there may be a phased repair opportunity if it stabilizes at the support level [10]. - **Industrial Silicon**: The supply surplus expectation remains, and the demand increase is limited. The price is expected to oscillate [11]. - **PVC and Caustic Soda**: PVC has a loose supply - demand pattern and may oscillate weakly. Caustic soda has a game between weak reality and strong expectation, and the month - spread may widen [27]. - **PX and PTA**: The strong supply - demand expectation of PX weakens, and the PTA processing margin repair space is limited. Attention should be paid to the downstream inventory reduction [28]. - **Ethylene Glycol**: The new - device expectation and weak external sentiment put pressure on the price. The supply pressure is not large in reality, but the expectation is weak [29]. - **Short - Fiber and Bottle - Chip**: Short - fiber is recommended for long - position allocation in the near - month contract. Bottle - chip has limited processing margin repair space due to over - capacity [30]. Agricultural Products - **Soybeans and Soybean Meal**: Argentina's export tax cancellation affects the market. The short - term market may oscillate, and long - term cautious optimism is maintained for soybean meal [34]. - **Soybean Oil and Palm Oil**: Argentina's policy changes the market sentiment. In the long - term, considering the biodiesel policy, it is advisable to buy on dips [35]. - **Rapeseed Meal and Rapeseed Oil**: The international rapeseed supply is seasonally loose, and the domestic market is relatively strong. The oil - meal ratio is expected to rise in the short - term [36]. - **Corn**: The new - season corn is expected to be a bumper harvest. The futures price may run weakly at the bottom [38]. - **Cotton**: The new - cotton production may be high, and the demand support is limited. After the price break - down, short - term observation is recommended [40]. - **Sugar**: Brazilian sugar production may remain high, and the domestic market focuses on the next - season's output [41]. - **Apples**: The supply lacks positive drivers, and the short - term price is expected to decline [42]. - **Timber**: The supply may remain low, and the demand in the peak season is weak. The price increase power is insufficient [43]. - **Paper Pulp**: The inventory is high, and the supply is loose. The operation suggestion is to observe or trade in the oscillation range [44]. Others - **Container Freight Index (European Line)**: The spot market is weak, and the price increase is difficult to implement. The盘面 may return to the downward channel [18]. - **Stock Index**: The macro - risk preference is high, and the market style is recommended to increase the allocation of the technology - growth sector and moderately allocate the cyclical style [44]. - **Treasury Bonds**: The debt risk is under control, and the liquidity is expected to be abundant. The yield curve is expected to steepen [45].

★美国首席大法官要求美联储理事库克在9月25日前回应特朗普。 ★美媒:特朗普周二将与阿拉伯国家领导人会晤,商讨加沙停火。 | Milli | 国技期货 | 贵金属日报 | | --- | --- | --- | | | 操作评级 | 2025年09月22日 | | 黄金 | ★☆☆ | 刘冬博 高级分析师 | | 白银 | ★☆★ | F3062795 Z0015311 | | | | 吴江 高级分析师 | | | | F3085524 Z0016394 | | | | 010-58747784 | | | | gtaxinstitute@essence.com.cn | 今日贵金属延续偏强运行。 上周美联储如期降息25个基点，鲍威尔称劳动力市场风险偏向下行，比次降息可 理解为风险管理式降息。点阵图暗示今年将累计降息3次，明年将降息1次。尽管特朗普钦点理事米兰呼吁快 速降息，但并未得到其他官员认可。总体看美联储态度偏谨慎，降息路径相对温和，降息交易退坡后黄金短 期驱动缓和,历史高位存在阶段性调整可能。美国众议院通过的共和党拔款法案在参议院未获通过,为规避 政府停摆,美国会民主党领袖要求尽快与特朗普会面。特朗普 ...