当地时间9月30日，美参议院先后否决两党拨款法案，白宫随后正式宣布政府即将"关门"。 美国联邦政府运转资金本应来自年度预算拨款。国会两党通常应在10月1日新财年开始前通过新的年度 拨款法案。但由于近年来两党争斗激烈，往往无法及时达成一致，国会便试图通过临时拨款法案以暂时 维持联邦政府运转。稍早前，美国参议院先后否决两党拨款法案，美国正处于近七年来首次联邦政府关 门的边缘。 （文章来源：央视新闻客户端） 当地时间30日晚，白宫管理和预算办公室(OMB)主任沃特发布备忘录，指示各政府机构开始执行其"有 序停摆"的预案。 沃特在美国政府资金将于午夜到期前仅剩数小时时致信各机构负责人，沃特在备忘录中写道："受影响 的机构现在应执行其有序停摆计划。"许多政府机构已经公布了应对停摆的应急方案，这将导致数千联 邦员工被迫休假，并可能影响某些政府福利的发放。 沃特在备忘录中写道："目前尚不清楚民主党将维持其无法实现的立场多久，因此停摆的持续时间难以 预测。"他继续表示："无论如何，员工应按原定工作时间到岗，开展有序停摆相关工作。我们将发布另 一份备忘录，指示在总统签署提供拨款的法案后，政府职能应恢复运作。" ...

With Congress gridlocked over spending bills, the US faces a looming government shutdown that could begin as early as this week. While most sectors brace for disruption, a handful of companies stand t... ...

距离美国联邦政府资金彻底耗尽已不足24小时。 眼下，尽管共和党控制着国会和白宫，但根据参议院规则，他们至少需要60票才能通过支出法案。共和党在参议院有53个席位，也就是说想要美国政府 不"关门"，他们必须说服至少7位民主党人"倒戈"。 一旦临时拨款法案在9月30日午夜前仍无法通过，美国联邦政府"关门"将造成什么影响？ 据了解，上世纪70年代以来，美国联邦政府因共和、民主两党政策分歧导致拨款中断而"停摆"已有20多次。上一次、也是最长的一次"停摆"发生在特朗普 首个总统任期内。当时大约四分之一的联邦政府机构"关门"持续五周，殃及80多万名政府雇员，经济损失估计超过100亿美元。 市场方面，美股三大股指小幅低开，截至发稿，道指跌0.01%，纳指跌0.16%，标普500指数跌0.11%，纳斯达克中国金龙指数涨近1%。 据央视新闻消息，当地时间9月30日，美国总统特朗普表示，一旦美联邦政府"关门"，可能导致大量联邦雇员被裁。他还表示，若不满意军方将领，将"当 场解职"。 为避免联邦政府停摆，在9月29日晚间，特朗普在白宫会见国会两党领袖，讨论临时拨款法案。这次会谈被视为在10月1日凌晨美国联邦政府停摆大限到来 之前， ...

来源：滚动播报 美联储柯林斯：在美国政府停摆期间美联储将照常操作。 ...

Core Points - The U.S. government is facing a potential shutdown due to a budget impasse between the two major political parties, with a deadline approaching on October 1 [1][5][6] - The budget process is complicated by the U.S. fiscal year running from October 1 to September 30, leading to annual conflicts over budget approvals [3][5] - The Federal Reserve's operations are not directly affected by a government shutdown, as it operates independently and does not rely on congressional appropriations [10][13] Group 1: Budget Impasse - The Democratic Party is advocating for extended subsidies for the Affordable Care Act, while the Republican Party is focused on budget cuts to healthcare [5] - A vote is scheduled for September 30, and failure to pass the budget will result in a government shutdown starting that evening [6] Group 2: Federal Reserve Operations - The Federal Reserve is set to hold its next meeting on October 28-29, during a potential government shutdown period [8] - Despite a government shutdown, the Federal Reserve staff will continue to work, as it is not a subordinate department of the government [10][13] Group 3: Impact on Economic Data - A government shutdown may delay the release of key economic indicators such as non-farm payroll and CPI data, which are crucial for the Federal Reserve's decision-making [15][16] - The inability to access timely economic data could lead the Federal Reserve to maintain current interest rates instead of proceeding with anticipated cuts [15][17]

智通财经APP了解到，美国政府近日面临停摆风险，如果真的停摆，美元将面临明确风险。历史表明， 在2013年、2018年初以及2018年底至2019年初这三次最近停摆事件中，彭博美元现货指数在僵局持续期 间及刚结束后均出现下行走势。 其中，2018年12月至次年1月长达35天的停摆，令美元下跌最为严重，这一案例也凸显出：停摆持续时 间越长，对美元的负面影响越大。 在那次停摆期间，美元累计下跌约2%。而当前(可能面临停摆前)，美元已连续第三个交易日下跌，期间 累计跌幅达0.6%。 从汇率波动率来看，欧元兑美元期权的隐含波动率往往在停摆前上升，这表明交易员会迅速将动荡风险 纳入定价。但实际波动率的表现却有所不同： 在此背景下，未来一个月的期权市场对美元的情绪已回落至中性，上周微弱的看涨倾向已完全消失，这 一变化并不意外。 - 2018年1月停摆时，预期与实际相符，实际波动率与隐含波动率几乎完全同步; - 与之形成对比的是，2018-2019年那次长期停摆期间，期权定价已反映出动荡预期，但这一预期从未完 全兑现——因为在僵局持续的大部分时间里，实际波动率始终处于低位。 美国副总统JD·万斯(JD Vance)表示，他 ...

经济观察网 据央视新闻，美国联邦政府资金将于当地时间9月30日午夜耗尽，政府再次陷入停摆危机。 当地时间29日，美国总统特朗普在白宫会见了参议院民主党领袖查克·舒默、参议院共和党领袖约翰·图 恩、众议院议长迈克·约翰逊及众议院民主党领袖哈基姆·杰弗里斯，讨论防止联邦政府停摆的措施。据 美国媒体报道，国会两党领导人在会见特朗普后纷纷对媒体表示，双方存在巨大分歧，谈判进展甚微。 对美国公众而言，政府"关门"，几乎成了美国财政年度更迭时的"惯常戏码"。 ...

Group 1 - The meeting between President Trump and congressional leaders aims to discuss measures to prevent a government shutdown, with both parties currently at an impasse [1][2] - Trump expressed dissatisfaction with the possibility of a government shutdown, attributing the responsibility to the Democrats, while the Vice President stated that the decision lies with them [1] - Senate Minority Leader Schumer insists on including the extension of subsidies for the Affordable Care Act in the agreement to avoid a shutdown, blaming Republicans for not engaging in serious negotiations [1] Group 2 - Senate Majority Leader Thune accused Democrats of "playing with fire" and holding the government and the American people hostage [2] - House Speaker Johnson plans to urge Democrats to abandon partisan demands that could lead to a government shutdown during the meeting with Trump [2] - A deadline of September 30 at 11:59 PM is set for Congress to reach an agreement to ensure government operations continue, requiring at least seven Democratic votes in the Senate to pass the temporary funding bill [2]

Core Points - The US government is facing a potential shutdown due to disagreements among lawmakers regarding federal spending priorities [1] - Democrats are advocating for the restoration of Medicaid funding and the extension of ACA subsidies [1] - Republicans are insisting on a clean resolution that does not include the aforementioned provisions [1] Summary by Category Government Spending - Lawmakers are clashing over federal spending priorities as the September 30 deadline approaches [1] - The conflict centers around the inclusion of Medicaid funding and ACA subsidies in the spending resolution [1] Political Dynamics - Democrats are pushing for specific healthcare funding measures, while Republicans are focused on a straightforward resolution [1]

Group 1 - The core focus of the market is on the risk of a U.S. government shutdown, which could impact the upcoming non-farm payroll report and subsequently affect economic assessments and Federal Reserve policy expectations [1][2] - Investors are awaiting key economic data, including job vacancies, private employment figures, and the ISM manufacturing PMI, to gauge the health of the U.S. economy before the non-farm payroll report [1] - There is a significant expectation that the Federal Reserve may lower interest rates again in October, with a probability of about 80%, contingent on the labor market showing further weakness [2][3] Group 2 - Federal Reserve officials exhibit differing views on monetary policy, with some calling for substantial rate cuts to address a potentially divided labor market [2] - Analysts suggest that if the labor market remains weak, the dollar may weaken further as the Federal Reserve is expected to implement two more rate cuts by the end of the year [3] - Concerns about the independence of the Federal Reserve and a weak economic outlook may hinder any meaningful recovery of the dollar [3]