Risk Management
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X @Mayne
Mayne· 2025-10-25 20:29
Trading Strategies - Specialization: Top traders focus on a few core assets to build an edge in a niche [1] - Selectivity: They trade less frequently, waiting for the right setup and ignoring noise [2] - Sizing: They size into setups properly, avoiding unnecessary trades [2][3] - Directional Bias: They commit to a directional bias when the market rewards it, avoiding frequent flip-flopping [4] - Asymmetry: A few high-conviction trades drive nearly all returns [5] Risk Management & Resilience - Resilience: It often takes multiple attempts to figure out appropriate risk levels [6] - Persistence: Once risk levels are understood, traders stay funded longer and breach less frequently [6]
X @wale.moca 🐳
wale.moca 🐳· 2025-10-25 11:05
RT Loshmi (@LoshmiOnChain)to add on this:it is completely fine to lose money that you’ve made until you figure out how and what works for you in the spacei personally lost multiple times 5 figures and also 6 figures, nothing wrong or something you should be ashamed ofwhat helped me the most was understanding my previous mistakes and learning from themfor example the other day i lost 5 figures on perps, went back to analyze and realized that main problem to the loss was greed and no clear goals with the prof ...
3 Forces That Could Shake Tesla Stock
Forbes· 2025-10-24 13:30
Core Insights - Tesla has experienced significant stock price declines historically, with drops exceeding 30% within two months occurring eight times, leading to substantial market value loss [1] - The company faces increasing competition, particularly from BYD, which has surpassed Tesla in global battery electric vehicle (BEV) sales as of Q3 2025 [5] - Tesla's operating income decreased by 40% year-over-year in Q3 2025, with market share falling from 49% in Q3 2024 to 41% despite record deliveries [5] - Regulatory risks are present, particularly concerning the Full Self-Driving (FSD) system, with a National Highway Traffic Safety Administration (NHTSA) probe involving 2.88 million Teslas [5] - Raw material costs are rising, with lithium prices increasing by 4.62% year-over-year, while nickel is experiencing oversupply [5] - Tesla's revenue growth has been negative at -1.6% over the last twelve months, with a free cash flow margin of approximately 7.1% [6] - The stock trades at a high P/E ratio of 285.3, indicating a premium valuation compared to the S&P [6] - Historical market corrections for Tesla include a 53.5% drop in 2018 and a 60.6% decline during the Covid pandemic, highlighting vulnerability to market conditions [7] - Stock prices can decline even in favorable market conditions due to earnings reports and business updates [8] Financial Performance - Tesla's operating income for Q3 2025 decreased by 40% year-over-year [5] - Revenue growth has been -1.6% over the last twelve months, with an average growth of 9.3% over the past three years [6] - Free cash flow margin stands at approximately 7.1%, with an operating margin of 5.1% over the last twelve months [6] Competitive Landscape - BYD has overtaken Tesla in global BEV sales, reporting 1.61 million units compared to Tesla's 1.22 million units as of Q3 2025 [5] - Tesla's market share has declined from 49% in Q3 2024 to 41% in Q3 2025 [5] Regulatory and Cost Challenges - The NHTSA probe involves 2.88 million Teslas concerning FSD traffic violations, with six accidents resulting in injuries [5] - Lithium prices have increased by 4.62% year-over-year to 74,800 CNY/T, while nickel is priced at $15,328 USD/T and is experiencing oversupply [5]
Mobileye: Stabilizing Cash Flow And Rising Sales Trend Justify The Buy
Seeking Alpha· 2025-10-24 13:26
Core Insights - Mr. Mavroudis is a professional portfolio manager with a focus on risk management and in-depth financial market analysis [1] - He has successfully navigated major crises, including the COVID-19 pandemic and the PSI [1] - Mr. Mavroudis is the CEO of FAST FINANCE Investment Services, a registered Greek company [1] Professional Background - Holds an MSc in Financial and Banking Management, an LLM in Law, and a BSc in Economics, graduating as valedictorian [1] - Certified portfolio manager and analyst for financial instruments, with additional certifications in derivatives and securities market-making [1] - Licensed Class A accountant-tax consultant and member of the Economic Chamber of Greece [1] Contributions and Engagement - Writes daily articles for reputable financial media and appears as a guest commentator on television and online programs [1] - Published three books on investments and teaches in educational seminars [1] - Engages with the investment community through Seeking Alpha to foster mutual growth and knowledge sharing [1]
Ebix launches ExposureHub in US
Yahoo Finance· 2025-10-24 09:33
Core Insights - Ebix has launched ExposureHub in the US, a platform designed for real-time exposure visibility and analytics in the insurance industry [1][2] - The platform integrates AI analytics, portfolio modeling, and geocoding-based mapping to enhance risk understanding across regions and product lines [2][3] - ExposureHub aims to support property, casualty, and specialty insurers, as well as brokers and risk teams, facilitating data-driven decision-making and compliance [1][3] Product Features - ExposureHub features interactive dashboards for geographic data analysis, risk concentration evaluation, and potential catastrophic event prediction [2] - The platform includes a Data Quality Module for early detection of data discrepancies, ensuring reliable reporting and compliance [4] - Additional functionalities such as the Insight Module for immediate data analysis and ConfigHub for customizable validation rules and workflows are also part of the offering [5] Market Expansion - Ebix plans to extend ExposureHub's reach to key markets including the Asia-Pacific region, India, and Latin America, aiming to cater to a broader audience [4][6] - The introduction of ExposureHub is seen as a significant growth opportunity for Ebix's Risk Management vertical, enhancing its product portfolio [3][4] - The platform is already in use by over 15 underwriting clients in the London market, with many more in the implementation phase [5]
Old Republic International (ORI) - 2025 Q3 - Earnings Call Presentation
2025-10-23 19:00
Financial Performance - Old Republic's Market Cap/Stock Price (NYSE: ORI) is $1051 billion/$4247[13] - Shareholders' Equity/BVPS is $642 billion/$2619[13] - The company's annualized operating ROE is 144%[13] - Regular Dividend/Yield is $116/27%[13] - Q3 2025 operating EPS was $078, a 99% increase from $071 in Q3 2024[27] - Net premiums & fees earned reached $209 billion, an 81% increase from Q3 2024[27] Business Segments - Specialty Insurance generated $54 billion of operating revenue in 2024[31] - Title Insurance generated $27 billion of operating revenue in 2024[31] - Title Insurance holds a 144% market share, ranking 3rd in the industry[57] - Specialty Insurance accounted for 85% of 2024 pre-tax operating income, while Title Insurance accounted for 14%[33] Capital Management - $62 billion of dividends & share repurchases since 123116[11] - $912 million remains authorized for share repurchases[28,74] - $182 billion in share repurchases since 2022, representing just over 21% of shares outstanding[78]
X @The Economist
The Economist· 2025-10-23 17:25
Geopolitical Risk - The industry is starting to hedge against the risk that America abandons it [1]
How I Made ICT Easy (and Profitable) with One Strategy #trading
Craig Percoco· 2025-10-23 03:42
ICT became easy once I figured out this one thing and also when I realized that I don't need to use 95% of it. Okay. And in the past one week of trading risking $1,000 per trade, I've been able to make over $21,000 in profit using this exact thought process.All I'm looking for is a consistent downtrend that's been contacted for multiple times in a session. Okay. Once I get an actionable fair value gap as well as a change of character as well as an influx in volume, I can then set my position up expecting wi ...
Motley Fool Co-Founder Tom Gardner: The Quarterly Call
Yahoo Finance· 2025-10-22 23:45
Core Insights - The current market is experiencing high valuations, with the S&P 500 up approximately 35% since mid-April, indicating a need for caution in investment strategies [1][4][6] - Speculative investments, such as low-priced stocks and sports betting, are discouraged at this stage of the market cycle, emphasizing a focus on risk reduction [1][3][6] - The potential of artificial intelligence (AI) is acknowledged, but there are concerns about overvaluation and competition within the sector [2][9][10] Market Valuation Analysis - The VIX, a measure of market volatility, is currently low, suggesting a calm market that may precede increased volatility [3] - The P/E ratio of the S&P 500 is over 25, which is historically high, indicating that the market may be overvalued [4] - The NASDAQ is trading at about 6.5 times sales, while the S&P is at approximately 3.3 times sales, both of which are near peak valuations [4] Investment Strategy Recommendations - The company does not advocate for selling stocks but suggests adjusting portfolios to account for rich valuations [5][6] - Investors are encouraged to focus on companies with strong financial management and innovative capabilities, particularly in AI [10][11] - A cautious approach is recommended, with a shift towards risk management in investment strategies [12][13] Stock Recommendations - IBM is highlighted as a cautious investment due to its advancements in quantum computing and strong financial management [14] - Progressive Insurance is noted for its technological advancements in the insurance sector, making it a solid cautious investment [15] - Stride, an online learning company, and Sterling Infrastructure, involved in data center construction, are recommended as moderate investments [15][16] - Rocket Lab is presented as a riskier investment opportunity, appealing due to its innovative nature despite high valuations [16] Long-term Outlook - The company suggests a five-year holding period for the recommended stocks, indicating a focus on long-term growth potential [17] - The market may experience fluctuations, but the selected stocks are expected to perform well over time [17]
David Tepper Scales Back China Exposure and Sells Out of Key Tech Giants
Acquirersmultiple· 2025-10-22 23:39
Core Insights - David Tepper's Appaloosa LP has significantly reduced its equity portfolio, indicating a cautious stance towards high-growth and technology-linked stocks while consolidating capital into core holdings with better risk-reward profiles [1][7] Reductions in Holdings - **iShares China Large-Cap ETF (FXI)**: Reduced by 82.14%, selling 4.6 million shares and retaining 1 million, reflecting caution towards Chinese equities due to sluggish growth and regulatory uncertainty [2] - **Oracle Corp (ORCL)**: Decreased by 78.57%, trimming 550,000 shares to hold 150,000, likely due to profit-taking after a strong rally and rising competition concerns [3] - **PDD Holdings Inc (PDD)**: Cut by 54.23%, selling 2.37 million shares and retaining 2 million, indicating a tactical pullback from Chinese e-commerce amid geopolitical tensions [4] - **Meta Platforms Inc (META)**: Reduced by 27.27%, cutting 150,000 shares to hold 400,000, signaling valuation discipline after a surge [5] - **Alphabet Inc (GOOG)**: Decreased by 25.37%, selling 510,000 shares and retaining 1.5 million, reflecting portfolio rebalancing within large-cap tech [6] Full Exits - Appaloosa executed several full exits, including the liquidation of the SPDR S&P 500 Fossil Fuel Reserves ETF (SPYX), a $2.5 billion PUT position that constituted about 30% of the portfolio, and exited Apple (AAPL) with a $278 million PUT stake [8][9] - Other full exits included Wynn Resorts (WYNN), Las Vegas Sands (LVS), and Broadcom (AVGO), indicating profit-taking in leisure and semiconductor sectors after strong performance [9][10] Overall Strategy - Tepper's recent activity highlights a disciplined risk-management approach, focusing on high-liquidity, large-cap names while maintaining flexibility to redeploy capital towards higher-upside opportunities [7][10]