circle earns minimum 5% on $61.6B in user deposits parked in treasuries. usdc holders get 0%.their ipo was 25x oversubscribed and stock is up 589% because 97% of their revenue comes from literally just parking your money in risk-free government bonds.even traditional banks give you something on savings accounts. @wizardofsoho nailed it: "circle gives you stables but doesn't give you any of the yield they get by taking your dollars"classic wall street move. let the crypto guys buy our bags and don't give the ...

talk all about this and very much more with me pand JP Morgan global market strategist mirror great to have you with us um very good morning to you snapshot I guess for me why don't we start there on the international pitches obviously US markets record highs bounce back very strongly but outperformed by a number of international markets has that changed the sort of perspective your clients have on on those markets or very much still focused on the US there is still a huge home bias towards US stocks but it ...

Group 1: Economic Environment - The May 2025 Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) inflation report indicates core PCE inflation rose approximately 0.22% month over month and 2.68% year over year, reinforcing expectations for the Fed's hawkish stance [1][11] - Treasury yields have increased, with the benchmark 10-year yield climbing from roughly 3.35% to about 3.45%, reflecting market reactions to persistent inflation data [2][11] Group 2: Financial Sector Performance - Financial institutions, including banks and insurance companies, are expected to see increased profitability due to higher lending rates and improved net interest margins in a high-rate environment [4][5] - The S&P 500 Financials Select Sector SPDR (XLF) has risen 9.1% year to date as of June 30, indicating strong performance in the financial sector [5] Group 3: Investment Opportunities - Stocks such as Nelnet, Inc. (NNI), Pagaya Technologies Ltd. (PGY), and United Fire Group, Inc. (UFCS) are highlighted as viable investment options due to their strong earnings momentum and favorable growth rates [3][11] - Nelnet (NNI) has an expected earnings growth rate of 59% for the current year, with a Zacks Rank 1 and a VGM Score of B [8] - Pagaya Technologies (PGY) shows an expected earnings growth rate of 195.2% for the current year, also holding a Zacks Rank 1 and a VGM Score of B [9] - United Fire Group (UFCS) has an expected earnings growth rate of 8% for the next year, with a Zacks Rank 2 and a VGM Score of B [10]

Core Viewpoint - Chevron Corporation (CVX) is recognized for its strong dividend history, having increased its payout for 38 consecutive years, with a current dividend yield of 4.8%, outperforming ExxonMobil's (XOM) 3.7% and Shell's (SHEL) 4.1% [1][8]. Dividend Strength - Chevron's dividend is considered one of the most reliable in the energy sector, with a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of over 6% for the past five years and a total of $27 billion returned to shareholders in 2024, including $3 billion in dividends [5][6]. - The company has maintained a high payout ratio of 74%, raising concerns about the sustainability of its dividend, especially if energy markets remain under pressure [3][6]. Earnings Outlook - Chevron's earnings per share (EPS) is expected to decline by 32% in 2025 due to lower commodity prices and other factors, but a rebound of 27% is projected for 2026, driven by increased output from key projects [10][12]. - The reliance on short-cycle assets like the Permian may lead to increased earnings volatility compared to competitors [11]. Stock Performance - Chevron's stock has underperformed, with a decline of 2.5% over the past three years, contrasting with ExxonMobil's 23% and Shell's 36% gains [8][12]. - The company's recent challenges include the loss of Venezuelan production and concerns related to the Hess arbitration, which have contributed to its lagging performance [12]. Conclusion - While Chevron offers a dependable dividend backed by a strong balance sheet, the near-term decline in EPS and high payout ratio indicate potential risks. The anticipated earnings recovery in 2026 provides some optimism, but challenges remain [16][17].

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Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Long" position on 3-year Chinese Government Bonds (CGB) in anticipation of dovish policy tailwinds from the People's Bank of China (PBoC) [2][28]. Core Insights - Chinese corporates are lagging in de-dollarization efforts, with a notable increase in net USD selling by exporters in May, but this was primarily due to reduced outright USD buying rather than increased selling [3][11]. - The PBoC's fixing strategy has shown a more measured pace in the recent decline of CNY FX compared to previous sharp DXY weakness, indicating a preference for FX stability [4][20]. - Structural demand for foreign assets by Chinese investors is driven by a search for yield amid a domestic shortage of investable assets, leading to a shift in interest towards less liquid bonds [28][30]. Summary by Sections Current Trade Recommendations - Long 3-year CGB (FX-hedged) initiated on March 7, 2025, with a current yield of 1.39% and a profit of +14 basis points [2]. CNY FX and De-dollarization - The recent decline in CNY FX aligns with the PBoC's fixing strategy, but the pace has been more controlled compared to past episodes of DXY weakness [3][4]. - Chinese corporates sold approximately $17 billion in USD in May, a significant increase from $6 billion in April, but still below seasonal expectations [11][7]. - The net FX settlement ratio showed only a marginal improvement, indicating a lack of urgency among corporates to convert USD [11][13]. FX Swaps and Liquidity - Corporates have increasingly utilized FX swaps to access CNY funding without losing the USD carry, reflecting a strategic shift in managing currency exposure [11][16]. - Onshore USD liquidity has become excessively flush, with interbank USD rates falling, making CNY financing via FX swaps more expensive than direct borrowing [11][19]. Market Conditions and PBoC Actions - Proactive liquidity injections from the PBoC have alleviated funding concerns for banks, supporting a favorable environment for front-end CGBs [28][30]. - The PBoC has reiterated its commitment to enhancing monetary policy support and maintaining ample liquidity, which is expected to continue influencing market conditions positively [28][30].

Investment Rating - The report suggests a long position in UST duration at the 5-year key rate and recommends maintaining long positions in UST 3s30s and term SOFR 1y1y vs. 5y5y steepeners ahead of potential range breakouts post-month-end [6][10][41]. Core Insights - The report emphasizes that the performance of the S&P 500 Index often does not accurately predict economic recessions, with historical data showing that in 27% of NBER-declared recessions, the S&P 500 peaked in or after the month the recession began [6][21]. - It highlights the importance of upcoming US labor market data, particularly the May JOLTS and June employment reports, which could significantly influence the yield curve and Treasury yields [18][32]. - The report notes a significant decrease in the US Treasury's cash flow deficit over the past three months, attributed to higher tax revenues, tariff revenues, and reduced government spending [19][29]. Summary by Sections Economic Data and Market Performance - The report argues that investors should focus on economic data rather than the stock market, as historical trends indicate that equity performance often misleads regarding impending recessions [9][11]. - It points out that the S&P 500 Index's performance leading up to recessions has often been misleading, with many instances where the index was near its peak when recessions began [15][21]. Labor Market Insights - The upcoming labor market data is critical, with expectations for total payroll growth of 140,000, which aligns with recent trends but contrasts with rising unemployment claims [32][36]. - The report suggests that the labor market data could catalyze a repricing of risks in the US rates market, particularly if the data indicates downside risks [30][41]. Treasury Financing Needs - The report discusses the US Treasury's financing needs, noting a significant reduction in the cash flow deficit, which fell to $111 billion over a recent 63-day period, down 75% from the previous year [29][30]. - It highlights that tariff revenues have played a significant role in reducing the cash flow deficit, with annualized tariff revenue reaching $323.9 billion, or 1.1% of nominal GDP, a notable increase from historical averages [25][26].

Group 1 - The article discusses the risks associated with high-yield investments, particularly those yielding over 9%, which often lead to dividend cuts and declining prices [1] - The focus is on baby bonds, which are preferred for their ease of trading and ability to generate strong yields with less volatility compared to regular bonds [2] - PennyMac Mortgage Trust (PMT) has announced a new baby bond, PMTW, which has a 9% coupon rate, similar to PMTV, with minor differences in ex-dividend dates and pricing [3][4] Group 2 - PMTW has seen high trading volume since its recent launch, with a goal of issuing $100 million, potentially increasing to $115 million with over-allotment [6] - The issuance of around 4 million shares is expected, with the anticipation of sellers closing positions before the weekend [7] - The yield to maturity for PMTW is approximately 9.49%, with a maturity date about five years out, providing a reasonable income stream [12] Group 3 - PMTW shares are currently within the target price range, with a calculated yield to maturity of 9.35% at a price of $25.05 [13] - The article emphasizes the importance of not using market orders due to potential price jumps and the strategy of placing bids instead [8][11] - The company plans to actively trade this position based on yield changes and the spread between these bonds and similar duration Treasuries [12]

But yields are sinking today even as we're talking about the long-term fiscal sustainability of the US government. Maybe Rick Santelli who is back now can explain. Hi Rick. Hi.you know whether it's the month end quarter end halfyear end effects or just in general as the last guest Steve pointed out and so appropriately sometimes markets don't trade on fundamentals and on the interest rate side there has been a global propensity for lower rates but everything you said is true Kelly this administration's budg ...

Market Trends & Investment Strategies - The discussion revolves around investment strategies concerning treasuries, particularly the 20-year Bond ETF (TLT), and European bonds [1] - The firm expresses reservations about the back end of the yield curve, considering alternatives like ECB rate cuts or seeking opportunities at the long end [2] - Tactical buying of the long end of the yield curve is considered around quarter-end [2] - Long-duration assets can be helpful if geopolitical risks resurface or inflation declines [5] - Currently, equities, especially growth equities with a 19% ROE, are favored over long-duration bonds due to inflation concerns and tariff issues [5][6] Duration & Hedging - Duration is viewed as no longer a reliable hedge [4] - TLT is considered an efficient vehicle for gaining duration when needed, although not currently favored [3] Economic Factors - Inflation expectations and potential tariff problems are key themes influencing market movements [5]