欧盟成员国仍倾向于在8月1日特朗普截止日期前进行谈判，知情人士称若达不成协议，更多欧盟国家将 支持启用反胁迫工具。（彭博） ...

Core Viewpoint - The European Union (EU) has prepared a second list of retaliatory tariffs against the United States, amounting to €72 billion (approximately $84 billion), in response to the ongoing trade negotiations and threats from the Trump administration [1][2]. Summary by Sections Trade Negotiations - The EU is facing "huge differences" in trade negotiations with the US, particularly after President Trump threatened to impose a 30% tariff on EU goods [2][3]. - The EU's initial list targeted $95 billion worth of US goods but was reduced after consultations with businesses and member states [2]. Retaliatory Measures - The EU's retaliatory measures include tariffs on industrial products, with over €65 billion of the €72 billion list consisting of industrial goods such as aircraft (€11 billion), machinery (€9.4 billion), and automobiles (€8 billion) [10][11]. - The EU is also considering measures against the US service sector and utilizing the strongest tools available, including anti-coercion measures [11]. Economic Impact - The proposed 30% tariff would significantly impact transatlantic trade relations, making it nearly impossible to maintain the current trade structure [5][10]. - Experts believe that the EU's negotiation stance has shifted from zero tariffs to accepting a 10% general tariff, indicating a significant concession [5][10]. Broader Trade Context - The EU is seeking to strengthen trade relations with like-minded partners and is considering cooperation with CPTPP members as part of its strategy to counter US tariffs [12]. - The World Bank has noted that by December 2024, the CPTPP will include countries that account for about 15% of global GDP, highlighting the EU's interest in engaging with both developed and emerging markets [12].

Group 1: Core Views - Experts believe there is a high likelihood of reaching a principle framework agreement between the US and EU in the short term, but detailed negotiations and implementation will take more time [1][5] - EU Commission President Ursula von der Leyen stated that the EU is ready to reach a principle agreement on tariffs with the US, but will take countermeasures to protect the European economy if negotiations fail [1][6] - The trade volume between the US and EU is the largest globally, amounting to €1.5 trillion annually [1] Group 2: Current Negotiation Status - EU Trade Commissioner Maroš Šefčovič is in Washington to meet with US officials, aiming to reach an agreement by July 9 [3] - The US currently imposes a 50% tariff on EU steel and aluminum products, a 25% tariff on automobiles, and a 10% baseline tariff on nearly all other goods [3] - The EU estimates that US tariffs cover approximately €380 billion worth of products, accounting for 70% of its total exports to the US [3] Group 3: Challenges in Reaching an Agreement - Experts indicate that while a principle agreement may be easily reached, detailed negotiations will likely take several months due to deeper underlying conflicts [5] - The economic complementarity between the US and EU is low, making it difficult to find balanced trade solutions [5] - Different EU member states have varying trade structures and interests, complicating the negotiation process [5] Group 4: EU's Contingency Plans - The EU is preparing for the possibility of not reaching a satisfactory agreement and is considering all necessary measures to defend European interests [6][7] - The EU has previously decided to impose tariffs on €21 billion worth of US imports as a response to US tariffs, with a potential plan for an additional €95 billion in tariffs on products like Boeing aircraft and American cars [7] - The EU has tools such as the Anti-Coercion Instrument (ACI) to respond to perceived economic coercion from the US, allowing for measures like restricting US companies' participation in EU public procurement [7]

针对关税谈判，欧盟发出最新警告！ 欧盟委员会主席冯德莱恩当地时间10日表示，如果与美国的关税谈判失败，欧盟可能会对美国的大型科技公 司征收关税。 股市方面，由"对等关税"引发的波动仍在持续。周五，欧洲股市巨震，德国DAX指数、法国CAC40指数集体 高开，开盘不久后涨幅均超过1%，不过随便出现大跳水，德国DAX指数盘中一度跌超2%，法国CAC40指数 一度跌超1.6%。 本周，美股也被抛售。美国银行全球研究部周五表示，在截至周三的5个交易日里，由于"对等关税"引发的市 场动荡，外国投资者抛售了65亿美元的美国股票。 周五盘中，美股三大指数也大幅波动。截至北京时间晚上10点30分，道指跌0.78%，纳指跌0.93%，标普500 指数跌0.84%。大型科技股多数下跌，特斯拉跌超3%，亚马逊跌1.59%，苹果跌0.25%。中概股表现相对较 强，纳斯达克中国金龙指数微跌0.10%，金山云涨近10%，小鹏汽车涨超7%，理想汽车涨超4%，百度集团涨 超2%。 据报道，欧盟将"反胁迫工具"视作其"最强大的经济武器"，这项工具不仅可以被用来向进口商品征税，还可限 制第三国公司参与公共采购项目，或对服务贸易和投资设限。除了可能 ...

2025.04. 11 本文字数：2499，阅读时长大约4分钟 导读 ： 冯德莱恩表示，针对特朗普所谓的"对等关税"的进一步反制措施可能会针对美国对欧盟的巨额服务顺 差。 作者 | 第一财经 冯迪凡 日前，欧盟委员会主席冯德拉恩在接受公开采访时表示，若同特朗普政府谈判失败，欧盟就准备部署 其最强有力的贸易措施，并可能对美国数字企业征税。 她还表示，欧盟将在特朗普政府暂停征收额外关税的90天内，寻求与华盛顿达成一项 "完全平衡 "的 协议。 不过，"我们正在制定报复性措施，"她解释说，这些措施可能包括首次使用欧盟反胁迫工具。 针对是否谈判双方能够实现合作共赢这种前景，欧洲工商管理学院经济学教授、欧洲经济政策研究中 心（CEPR）副主席法塔斯（Antonio Fatas）对第一财经记者表示，目前看到的进程并不理性。"我 们谈论的是，目前引导美国的是一种缺乏战略和错误的逻辑。当一方从这个角度出发时，就很难考虑 什么是最佳的谈判问题。我无法预测美国总统特朗普的想法。我希望经济现实能让他的立场趋于合 理。到目前为止，这一切都没有发生。" "再也回不去了" 冯德莱恩在采访中表示，特朗普的贸易战已经造成了"全球贸易的彻底拐 ...

欧洲股市、美股期货、石油、铜、白银，全线跳水！ 今日，针对美国的"对等关税"，中国发出反制措施，对原产于美国的所有进口商品，在现行适用关税税率基础上加征34%关税。此外，中国商务部、海关总 署六箭齐发，宣布将16家美国实体列入出口管制管控名单、对中重稀土相关物项实施出口管制、暂停6家美国企业产品输华资质、将11家美国企业列入不可靠 实体清单、对进口医用CT球管发起产业竞争力调查、在世贸组织起诉美"对等关税"等。 在贸易战升级的背景下，欧洲股市跌势不止。4月4日，欧洲股市全线暴跌，盘中跌幅持续扩大，截至19点，意大利富时MIB指数跌超7%，西班牙IBEX指数 跌近6%，德国DAX指数跌近5%，法国CAC 40指数跌超4%，英国富时100指数跌3.8%。 欧洲的银行股跌幅较大，斯托克欧洲600银行指数大跌超10%。德意志银行股价盘中大跌超11%，预计将出现2024年7月以来最糟糕的一天。德国商业银行跌 超7%，有望创下2023年3月以来最糟糕的一天。美股期货也大幅下挫，纳斯达克100指数期货、标普500指数期货均跌超3%，道指期货跌近3%。 其他品种方面，欧元对美元汇率在前一天上涨1.8%后下跌0.5%至1.09 ...