Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - There is no information about the report industry investment rating provided in the content. Group 2: Core Viewpoints - Global natural rubber production areas are gradually starting tapping. In the Yunnan region, there is still competition for raw materials, and prices remain high. In the Hainan region, weather conditions have slightly improved, with a month - on - month increase in raw material output, but it is still lower than the same period in previous years. The market raw material circulation is relatively tight, and some processing plants are still competing to purchase glue at higher prices. Overseas arrivals have decreased, resulting in a month - on - month decline in bonded warehouse receipts, but due to weak buying and insufficient outbound power, bonded warehouses are still in a state of inventory accumulation. General trade inventory is accelerating inventory reduction. Tire enterprise capacity utilization is gradually recovering, driving an increase in提货量 from Qingdao warehouses, and the total inventory in Qingdao showed a decline last week. In terms of demand, the capacity utilization of domestic tire enterprises increased significantly last week. Most semi - steel tire enterprises have returned to normal levels, but overall sales are slow, and inventory continues to grow. The all - steel tire capacity utilization is in a state of restorative improvement, with some enterprises facing increased sales pressure, continued growth in finished product inventory, insufficient orders, and overall production scheduling lower than the pre - holiday average. The ru2509 contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 14,450 - 15,100 in the short term, and the nr2507 contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 12,350 - 12,900 in the short term [2] Group 3: Summary by Directory 1. Futures Market - The closing price of the main Shanghai rubber contract decreased by 65 yuan/ton, and the closing price of the main 20 - number rubber contract decreased by 65 yuan/ton to 12,820 yuan/ton. The 9 - 1 spread of Shanghai rubber was 10 yuan/ton, and the 6 - 7 spread of 20 - number rubber was - 820 yuan/ton. The spread between Shanghai rubber and 20 - number rubber was - 95 yuan/ton. The position of the main Shanghai rubber contract increased by 1,031 hands to 149,254 hands, and the position of the main 20 - number rubber contract decreased by 2,730 hands. The net position of the top 20 in Shanghai rubber decreased by 3,153 hands to 29,191 hands, and the net position of the top 20 in 20 - number rubber was 846 hands. The warehouse receipts of Shanghai rubber in the exchange decreased by 410 tons to 199,570 tons, and the warehouse receipts of 20 - number rubber in the exchange decreased by 4,637 tons to 62,596 tons [2] 2. Spot Market - The price of state - owned whole latex in the Shanghai market decreased by 100 yuan/ton, and the price of Vietnamese 3L in the Shanghai market was 16,000 yuan/ton with no change. The price of Thai standard STR20 increased by 20 US dollars/ton to 1,800 US dollars/ton, and the price of Malaysian standard SMR20 increased by 20 US dollars/ton to 1,800 US dollars/ton. The price of Thai RMB mixed rubber increased by 50 yuan/ton to 14,650 yuan/ton, and the price of Malaysian RMB mixed rubber increased by 50 yuan/ton to 14,570 yuan/ton. The price of Qilu Petrochemical's butadiene - styrene 1502 was 12,900 yuan/ton with no change, and the price of Qilu Petrochemical's cis - butadiene BR9000 was 12,700 yuan/ton with no change [2] 3. Upstream Situation - The reference price of Thai raw rubber in the form of smoked sheets decreased by 0.5 Thai baht/kg, the reference price of Thai raw rubber in the form of rubber sheets was 71.59 Thai baht/kg with an increase of 1 Thai baht/kg, the reference price of Thai raw rubber in the form of glue increased by 1.25 Thai baht/kg, and the reference price of Thai raw rubber in the form of cup lump increased by 0.1 Thai baht/kg to 62.5 Thai baht/kg. The theoretical production profit of RSS3 was - 66 US dollars/ton, and the theoretical production profit of STR20 decreased by 53 US dollars/ton to 208 US dollars/ton [2] 4. Downstream Situation - The monthly import volume of technically classified natural rubber was 66,900 tons, and the monthly import volume of mixed rubber increased by 19,300 tons to 216,100 tons. The weekly all - steel tire开工率 was 65.09%, a decrease of 19.98 percentage points, and the weekly semi - steel tire开工率 was 78.33%. The inventory days of all - steel tires in Shandong at the end of the week was 42.77 days, an increase of 0.69 days, and the inventory days of semi - steel tires in Shandong at the end of the week was 45.78 days. The monthly output of all - steel tires was 3.09 million pieces, and the monthly output of semi - steel tires increased by 1.156 million pieces to 5.966 million pieces [2] 5. Option Market - The 20 - day historical volatility of the underlying was 0.11%, and the 40 - day historical volatility of the underlying decreased to 17.87%. The implied volatility of at - the - money call options decreased by 0.89%, and the implied volatility of at - the - money put options decreased by 0.89% to 21.92% [2] 6. Industry News - From May 18th to May 24th, 2025, rainfall in the main natural rubber producing areas in Southeast Asia decreased compared to the previous period. Precipitation in northern Thailand and the Philippines north of the equator increased significantly, and most other areas were in a moderate state, still affecting tapping work. South of the equator, the red - marked areas decreased, and most other areas had moderate rainfall, with an expected weakening impact on tapping work. As of May 18th, the total inventory of natural rubber in bonded and general trade in Qingdao was 614,200 tons, a decrease of 4,500 tons from the previous period, a decrease of 0.73%. Bonded area inventory increased by 2.34% to 92,100 tons, and general trade inventory decreased by 1.25% to 522,100 tons. The inbound rate of bonded warehouses in Qingdao decreased by 1.54 percentage points, and the outbound rate increased by 1.25 percentage points. The inbound rate of general trade warehouses increased by 1.06 percentage points, and the outbound rate increased by 2.20 percentage points. As of May 15th, the capacity utilization rate of Chinese semi - steel tire sample enterprises was 71.21%, a month - on - month increase of 24.50 percentage points and a year - on - year decrease of 7.98 percentage points. The capacity utilization rate of Chinese all - steel tire sample enterprises was 59.88%, a month - on - month increase of 18.19 percentage points and a year - on - year decrease of 5.40 percentage points [2]

0-13100区间波动。 免责声明 本报告中的信息均来源于公开可获得资料，瑞达期货股份有限公司力求准确可靠，但对这些信息的准确性及完整性不做任 何保证，据此投资，责任自负。本报告不构成个人投资建议，客户应考虑本报告中的任何意见或建议是否符合其特定状况。本 报告版权仅为我公司所有，未经书面许可，任何机构和个人不得以任何形式翻版、复制和发布。如引用、刊发，需注明出处为 瑞达期货股份有限公司研究院，且不得对本报告进行有悖原意的引用、删节和修改。 天然橡胶产业日报 2025-05-15 | 项目类别 | 数据指标 最新 环比 数据指标 沪胶主力合约收盘价(日,元/吨) | 15090 | -145 20号胶主力合约收盘价(日,元/吨) | 最新 12890 | 环比 -145 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 沪胶9-1价差(日,元/吨) | -820 | 30 20号胶6-7价差(日,元/吨) | 50 | 10 | | 期货市场 | 沪胶与20号胶价差(日,元/吨) | 2200 | 0 沪胶主力合约 持仓量(日,手) | 145674 | -4280 | | ...

天然橡胶产业日报 2025-04-28 研究员: 林静宜 期货从业资格号F03139610 期货投资咨询从业证书号Z0021558 分规模较小企业基本维持产销平衡状态，产量偏大企业受出货放缓影响，库存延续增势。ru2509合约短线 建议在14000-14950区间交易，nr2506合约短线建议在12000-12600区间交易。 免责声明 本报告中的信息均来源于公开可获得资料，瑞达期货股份有限公司力求准确可靠，但对这些信息的准确性及完整性不做任 何保证，据此投资，责任自负。本报告不构成个人投资建议，客户应考虑本报告中的任何意见或建议是否符合其特定状况。本 报告版权仅为我公司所有，未经书面许可，任何机构和个人不得以任何形式翻版、复制和发布。如引用、刊发，需注明出处为 瑞达期货股份有限公司研究院，且不得对本报告进行有悖原意的引用、删节和修改。 | 项目类别 | 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 期货市场 | 沪胶主力合约收盘价(日,元/吨) | 14730 | 10 20号胶主力合约收盘价(日,元/吨) | ...

天然橡胶产业日报 2025-04-17 | 项目类别 | 数据指标 最新 环比 数据指标 沪胶主力合约收盘价(日,元/吨) | | | 最新 | 环比 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 沪胶5-9价差(日,元/吨) | 14640 110 | 5 20号胶主力合约收盘价(日,元/吨) 70 20号胶6-7价差(日,元/吨) | 12415 70 | 65 -20 | | 期货市场 | 沪胶与20号胶价差(日,元/吨) | 2225 | -60 沪胶主力合约 持仓量(日,手) | 146631 | 6259 | | | 20号胶主力合约持仓量(日,手) | 64010 | -1301 沪胶前20名净持仓 | -26426 | -730 | | | 20号胶前20名净持仓 | 1644 | 317 沪胶交易所仓单(日,吨) | 200770 | -100 | | | 20号胶交易所仓单(日,吨) 上海市场国营全乳胶(日,元/吨) | 77112 14550 | -404 -150 上海市场越南3L(日,元/吨) | 16200 | 0 | | | 泰标STR2 ...

修安排对整体产能利用率形成拖拽，短期轮胎企业产能利用率存稳中走弱预期。关税政策引发市场对贸易 研究员: 林静宜 期货从业资格号F03139610 期货投资咨询从业证书号Z0021558 天然橡胶产业日报 2025-04-14 | 项目类别 | 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 期货市场 | 沪胶主力合约收盘价(日,元/吨) | 15080 | 85 20号胶主力合约收盘价(日,元/吨) | 12765 | 5 | | | 沪胶5-9价差(日,元/吨) | -150 | 15 20号胶6-7价差(日,元/吨) | 80 | -40 | | | 沪胶与20号胶价差(日,元/吨) | 2315 | 80 沪胶主力合约 持仓量(日,手) | 131052 | 4755 | | | 20号胶主力合约持仓量(日,手) | 61542 | -380 沪胶前20名净持仓 | -23653 | -1113 | | | 20号胶前20名净持仓 | 1006 | 1003 沪胶交易所仓单(日,吨) | 200910 | 8 ...