主，尿素企业库存或继续呈现下降趋势。UR2601合约短线预计在1640-1690区间波动。 免责声明 本报告中的信息均来源于公开可获得资料，瑞达期货股份有限公司力求准确可靠，但对这些信息的准确性及完整性不做任 何保证，据此投资，责任自负。本报告不构成个人投资建议，客户应考虑本报告中的任何意见或建议是否符合其特定状况。本 报告版权仅为我公司所有，未经书面许可，任何机构和个人不得以任何形式翻版、复制和发布。如引用、刊发，需注明出处为 瑞达期货股份有限公司研究院，且不得对本报告进行有悖原意的引用、删节和修改。 渐增量。本周尿素企业库存下降，东北储备需求明显增加，部分企业受其利影响去库明显。主产销区尿素 数据来源于第三方，观点仅供参考。市场有风险，投资需谨慎！ 尿素产业日报 2025-11-19 企业变化涨跌不一，局部区域虽然价格上涨，但去库幅度有限。近日部分尿素企业预收增加，积极出货为 研究员: 林静宜 期货从业资格号F03139610 期货投资咨询从业证书号Z0021558 | 项目类别 | 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- ...

本报告中的信息均来源于公开可获得资料，瑞达期货股份有限公司力求准确可靠，但对这些信息的准确性及完整性不做任 何保证，据此投资，责任自负。本报告不构成个人投资建议，客户应考虑本报告中的任何意见或建议是否符合其特定状况。本 尿素产业日报 2025-11-13 | 项目类别 | 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 期货市场 | 郑州尿素主力合约收盘价(日,元/吨) | 1658 | 3 郑州尿素1-5价差(日,元/吨) | -73 | 0 | | | 郑州尿素主力合约持仓量(日,手) | 250538 | -5582 郑州尿素前20名净持仓 | -39203 | -600 | | | 郑州尿素交易所仓单(日,张) | 6958 | 0 | | | | 现货市场 | 河北(日,元/吨) | 1630 | 0 河南(日,元/吨) | 1610 | -10 | | | 江苏(日,元/吨) | 1600 | -10 山东(日,元/吨) | 1600 | 0 | | | 安徽(日,元/吨) | 1590 | -20 郑 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The probability of an increase in urea production is high due to the recovery of previously shut - down devices and considering short - term enterprise malfunctions. The agricultural demand release has slowed down, and urea enterprises have made appropriate price concessions for transactions. The compound fertilizer's recent improvement in sales has led to a phased increase in its operating rate, and industrial demand has increased moderately. The compound fertilizer operating rate is expected to decline steadily or remain stable. The decline in urea enterprise inventory this week is mainly due to the implementation of new export policies, which have boosted the domestic trading atmosphere and improved the sales of urea enterprises. However, after the urea price increased, the new order transactions of factories slowed down, and the inventory of some enterprises rebounded. It is expected that urea enterprises will continue to reduce inventory slightly in the short term. The UR2601 contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 1625 - 1670 in the short term [2]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the Zhengzhou urea main contract is 1655 yuan/ton, with a change of 15 yuan/ton; the 1 - 5 spread is - 73 yuan/ton, with a change of 4 yuan/ton; the main contract's open interest is 256,120 lots, with an increase of 2083 lots; the net position of the top 20 is - 38,603; the exchange warehouse receipts are 6958 sheets, with an increase of 146 sheets [2]. 3.2 Spot Market - In the domestic spot market, the prices in Hebei, Henan, and Jiangsu remain unchanged at 1630 yuan/ton, 1620 yuan/ton, and 1610 yuan/ton respectively; the prices in Shandong and Anhui decreased by 10 yuan/ton to 1600 yuan/ton and 1610 yuan/ton respectively. The basis of the Zhengzhou urea main contract is - 55 yuan/ton, with a decrease of 25 yuan/ton. The FOB prices in the Baltic Sea and the Chinese main port are 357.5 US dollars/ton and 385 US dollars/ton respectively, remaining unchanged [2]. 3.3 Industry Situation - The port inventory is 7.9 million tons, with a decrease of 3.1 million tons; the enterprise inventory is 1.5781 billion tons, with an increase of 238 million tons. The urea enterprise operating rate is 82.71%, with an increase of 2.39%; the daily urea output is 183,500 tons, with a decrease of 4400 tons. The urea export volume is 1.37 million tons, with an increase of 570,000 tons; the monthly urea output is 5.73867 million tons, with a decrease of 190,010 tons [2]. 3.4 Downstream Situation - The compound fertilizer operating rate is 31.04%, remaining unchanged; the melamine operating rate is 53.2%, with an increase of 3.22%. The weekly profit of compound fertilizer in China is 83 yuan/ton, with a decrease of 33 yuan/ton; the weekly profit of melamine using externally - purchased urea is 165 yuan/ton, with an increase of 41 yuan/ton. The monthly output of compound fertilizer is 4.6618 million tons, with a decrease of 651,500 tons; the weekly output of melamine is 27,000 tons, with an increase of 1600 tons [2]. 3.5 Industry News - As of November 12, the total inventory of Chinese urea enterprises is 1.4836 billion tons, a decrease of 945 million tons from last week, a 5.99% decrease. As of November 6, the sample inventory of Chinese urea ports is 7.9 million tons, a decrease of 3.1 million tons, a 28.18% decrease. As of November 6, the output of Chinese urea production enterprises is 1.3545 billion tons, an increase of 392 million tons from the previous period, a 2.98% increase; the capacity utilization rate of Chinese urea production enterprises is 82.71%, an increase of 2.39% from the previous period, and the upward trend continues [2].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided 2. Core Viewpoints - Urea production continues to increase this week following the previous cycle's equipment changes [2] - The compound fertilizer's operating rate has rebounded due to improved sales, but it is expected to decline steadily or slightly considering new orders [2] - Urea enterprise inventory increased slightly last week, and with weak agricultural demand and moderate industrial and reserve demand, some enterprises maintain a weak balance between production and sales, while inventory may continue to accumulate in the short - term [2] - The U2601 contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 1640 - 1690 in the short term [2] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the Zhengzhou urea main contract is 1660 yuan/ton, down 7 yuan; the 1 - 5 spread is - 72 yuan/ton, down 5 yuan [2] - The main contract's open interest is 257,574 lots, down 11,014 lots; the net position of the top 20 is - 31,413 [2] - The exchange warehouse receipts are 6415 sheets, up 1830 sheets [2] 3.2 Spot Market - In the domestic spot market, prices in Hebei remained unchanged at 1590 yuan/ton, while those in Henan, Jiangsu, Shandong, and Anhui increased by 30, 10, 20, and 20 yuan/ton respectively [2] - The main contract's basis is - 40 yuan/ton, up 27 yuan [2] - FOB prices in the Baltic and Chinese main ports are 357.5 and 385 US dollars/ton respectively, up 10 and 7.5 US dollars/ton [2] 3.3 Industry Situation - Port inventory is 7.9 million tons, down 3.1 million tons; enterprise inventory is 1.5781 billion tons, up 23.8 million tons [2] - The urea enterprise operating rate is 82.71%, up 2.39%; the daily output is 183,500 tons, down 4400 tons [2] - Urea exports are 1.37 million tons, up 57%; the monthly output is 5.73867 million tons, down 190,010 tons [2] 3.4 Downstream Situation - The compound fertilizer operating rate is 31.04%, unchanged; the melamine operating rate is 53.2%, up 3.22% [2] - The weekly profit of compound fertilizer is 83 yuan/ton, down 33 yuan; the weekly profit of melamine with externally - purchased urea is 165 yuan/ton, up 41 yuan [2] - The monthly output of compound fertilizer is 4.6618 million tons, down 651,500 tons; the weekly output of melamine is 27,000 tons, up 1600 tons [2] 3.5 Industry News - As of November 5, enterprise inventory was 1.5781 billion tons, up 23.8 million tons week - on - week, a 1.53% increase [2] - As of November 6, port inventory was 7.9 million tons, down 3.1 million tons week - on - week, a 28.18% decrease [2] - As of November 6, production was 1.3545 billion tons, up 39.2 million tons week - on - week, a 2.98% increase; the capacity utilization rate was 82.71%, up 2.39% [2] 3.6 Suggestions for Attention - Pay attention to Longzhong's enterprise inventory, port inventory, daily output, and operating rate on Thursday [2]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The production of urea enterprises continues to increase this week, and the probability of an increase in production is high considering short - term enterprise failures. Agricultural demand release has slowed down, and urea enterprises have made appropriate concessions in transactions. The operating rate of compound fertilizers has rebounded due to improved sales, and industrial demand has increased appropriately. However, the operating rate of compound fertilizers is expected to decline steadily or slightly next week. There is no obvious trend of concentrated port exports recently, and supply and demand are mainly concentrated in the domestic market. The inventory of some urea enterprises maintains a weak balance, and the inventory may continue to accumulate in the short term. The UR2601 contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 1600 - 1650 in the short term [2] 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the main contract of Zhengzhou urea is 1644 yuan/ton, with a week - on - week increase of 11; the 1 - 5 spread is - 83 yuan/ton, with a week - on - week decrease of 1; the position of the main contract is 275142 lots, with a week - on - week increase of 2887; the net position of the top 20 is - 31611, with a week - on - week decrease of 1734; the exchange warehouse receipts are 3900, with no week - on - week change [2] 3.2 Spot Market - In the domestic spot market, the prices in Hebei, Henan, and Shandong remain unchanged, the price in Jiangsu increases by 10 yuan/ton, and the price in Anhui decreases by 10 yuan/ton. The FOB prices in the Baltic and Chinese main ports remain unchanged. The basis of the main contract of Zhengzhou urea is - 64 yuan/ton, with a week - on - week decrease of 11 [2] 3.3 Industry Situation - The port inventory is 110,000 tons, with a week - on - week decrease of 100,000 tons; the enterprise inventory is 1.5781 million tons, with a week - on - week increase of 23,800 tons. The operating rate of urea enterprises is 82.71%, with a week - on - week increase of 2.39%; the daily output is 187,900 tons, with a week - on - week increase of 5300 tons. The export volume is 1.37 million tons, with a week - on - week increase of 570,000 tons; the monthly output is 5,738,670 tons, with a month - on - month decrease of 190,010 tons [2] 3.4 Downstream Situation - The operating rate of compound fertilizers is 31.04%, with a week - on - week increase of 3.33%; the operating rate of melamine is 49.98%, with a week - on - week increase of 1.68%. The weekly profit of compound fertilizers is 116 yuan/ton, with a week - on - week decrease of 37 yuan/ton; the weekly profit of melamine with externally purchased urea is 124 yuan/ton, with a week - on - week decrease of 96 yuan/ton. The monthly output of compound fertilizers is 4.6618 million tons, with a month - on - month decrease of 651,500 tons; the weekly output of melamine is 25,400 tons, with a week - on - week increase of 1300 tons [2] 3.5 Industry News - As of November 5, the total inventory of Chinese urea enterprises is 1.5781 million tons, with a week - on - week increase of 23,800 tons and a week - on - week increase of 1.53%. As of November 6, the port inventory is 79,000 tons, with a week - on - week decrease of 31,000 tons and a week - on - week decrease of 28.18%. As of November 6, the production of Chinese urea enterprises is 1.3545 million tons, with a week - on - week increase of 39,200 tons and a week - on - week increase of 2.98%; the capacity utilization rate is 82.71%, with a week - on - week increase of 2.39% [2] 3.6 Suggested Attention - Pay attention to the enterprise inventory, port inventory, daily output, and operating rate data from Longzhong on Thursday [2]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided Group 2: Report's Core View - The release of previously suppressed demand and the appropriate follow - up of some reserve demand have helped increase new orders and shipments of urea factories. Last week, the inventory of urea enterprises decreased. With appropriate follow - up from downstream reserves, the inventory of urea enterprises is expected to fluctuate little in the short term. The UR2601 contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 1600 - 1640 in the short term [2][3] Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs Futures Market - The closing price of the Zhengzhou urea main contract is 1630 yuan/ton, up 7 yuan; the 1 - 5 spread is - 80 yuan/ton, up 6 yuan; the main contract's open interest is 272,271 lots, up 2,518 lots; the net position of the top 20 is - 27,015, up 2,461; the exchange warehouse receipts are 3,900, up 2,445 [2] Spot Market - In the domestic spot market, prices in Hebei, Henan, Jiangsu, and Anhui decreased by 20 yuan/ton, while the price in Shandong increased by 10 yuan/ton. The basis of the Zhengzhou urea main contract is - 60 yuan/ton, up 3 yuan. FOB prices in the Baltic and China's main ports remained unchanged at 347.5 and 377.5 dollars/ton respectively [2] Industry Situation - Port inventory decreased by 100,000 tons to 110,000 tons, a 47.62% decline. Enterprise inventory decreased by 75,900 tons to 1,554,300 tons, a 4.66% decline. The urea enterprise operating rate increased by 2.29% to 80.32%, and the daily output increased by 5,300 tons to 187,900 tons. Urea exports increased by 570,000 tons to 1,370,000 tons, while the monthly output decreased by 190,010 tons to 5,738,670 tons [2] Downstream Situation - The compound fertilizer operating rate increased by 3.33% to 31.04%, and the melamine operating rate increased by 1.68% to 49.98%. The weekly profit of compound fertilizer decreased by 37 yuan/ton to 116 yuan/ton, and the weekly profit of melamine using externally - purchased urea decreased by 96 yuan/ton to 124 yuan/ton. The monthly output of compound fertilizer decreased by 651,500 tons to 4,661,800 tons, and the weekly output of melamine increased by 1,300 tons to 25,400 tons [2] Industry News - As of October 29, the total inventory of Chinese urea enterprises decreased by 75,900 tons to 1,554,300 tons, a 4.66% decline. As of October 30, the port inventory decreased by 100,000 tons to 110,000 tons, a 47.62% decline. The resumption of previously overhauled devices has increased domestic urea production, and the production capacity utilization rate has increased by 2.29% to 80.32% [2] Viewpoint Summary - Some previously suppressed demand has been released, and some reserve demand has followed up, increasing new orders and shipments of urea factories. The inventory of urea enterprises decreased last week, and it is expected to fluctuate little in the short term. The compound fertilizer operating rate is expected to adjust slightly and stably this week [2][3] Tips for Attention - Pay attention to Longzhong's enterprise inventory, port inventory, daily output, and operating rate on Thursday [2]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided 2. Core Viewpoints - The short - term inventory of urea enterprises is expected to have small fluctuations. The UR2601 contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 1600 - 1650 in the short term [3][4] - The release of previously suppressed demand and the appropriate follow - up of some reserve demand have increased the new order transactions and shipment volume of urea factories. The inventory of urea enterprises decreased this week [3] - The start - up rate of domestic compound fertilizer plants has increased, but the autumn fertilizer tail orders are approaching the end, and the start - up rate of compound fertilizer next week is expected to be stable with a narrow adjustment [3] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of Zhengzhou urea's main contract is 1627 yuan/ton, down 17 yuan; the 1 - 5 spread is - 78 yuan/ton, down 5 yuan [3] - The main contract's open interest is 270109 lots, down 240 lots; the net position of the top 20 is - 31434 lots, up 3175 lots [3] - The exchange warehouse receipts are 0, unchanged [3] 3.2 Spot Market - The spot prices in Hebei, Henan, Jiangsu, Shandong, and Anhui are 1630, 1580, 1590, 1600, and 1590 yuan/ton respectively, with changes of 0, - 10, - 10, 0, and 0 yuan/ton [3] - The main contract basis is - 27 yuan/ton, up 17 yuan [3] - FOB Baltic is 348.5 dollars/ton, unchanged; FOB China's main port is 375 dollars/ton, unchanged [3] 3.3 Industry Situation - The port inventory is 210,000 tons, down 236,000 tons; the enterprise inventory is 1,554,300 tons, down 75,900 tons [3] - The urea enterprise start - up rate is 80.32%, up 2.29%; the daily output is 182,600 tons, down 6000 tons [3] - The urea export volume is 1.37 million tons, up 570,000 tons; the monthly output is 5,738,670 tons, down 190,010 tons [3] 3.4 Downstream Situation - The compound fertilizer start - up rate is 27.71%, up 3.53%; the melamine start - up rate is 48.3%, down 6.88% [3] - The weekly profit of compound fertilizer is 153 yuan/ton, down 14 yuan; the weekly profit of melamine with outsourced urea is 220 yuan/ton, down 8 yuan [3] - The monthly output of compound fertilizer is 4.6618 million tons, down 651,500 tons; the weekly output of melamine is 24,100 tons, down 3300 tons [3] 3.5 Industry News - As of October 29, the total inventory of Chinese urea enterprises was 1,554,300 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 4.66% [3] - As of October 30, the port sample inventory of Chinese urea was 110,000 tons, a week - on - week decline of 47.62% [3] - The domestic urea production has increased due to the resumption of previously overhauled devices, and the probability of output increase is high next week [3] 3.6 Suggested Attention - Pay attention to the enterprise inventory, port inventory, daily output, and start - up rate data from Longzhong on Thursday [3]

据农业推进情况，后期需求持续时间有限，库存或仍呈现增加趋势。UR2601合约短线预计在1600-1660区 | 项目类别 | 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 期货市场 | 郑州尿素主力合约收盘价(日,元/吨) | 1640 | -2 郑州尿素1-5价差(日,元/吨) | -73 | 4 914 | | | 郑州尿素主力合约持仓量(日,手) | 281954 | -4384 郑州尿素前20名净持仓 | -33395 | | | | 郑州尿素交易所仓单(日,张) | 5288 | -119 | | | | 现货市场 | 河北(日,元/吨) | 1600 | 10 河南(日,元/吨) | 1570 | 20 | | | 江苏(日,元/吨) | 1570 | 20 山东(日,元/吨) | 1610 | 40 | | | 安徽(日,元/吨) | 1570 | 10 郑州尿素主力合约基差(日,元/吨) | -30 | 42 | | | FOB波罗的海(日,美元/吨) | 348.5 | -11.5 FOB中国主 ...

尿素产业日报 2025-10-23 报告版权仅为我公司所有，未经书面许可，任何机构和个人不得以任何形式翻版、复制和发布。如引用、刊发，需注明出处为 瑞达期货股份有限公司研究院，且不得对本报告进行有悖原意的引用、删节和修改。 叠加部分装置短停检修，一定程度也放缓了企业库存上涨趋势，本周国内尿素企业库存仅小幅增加，但根 研究员: 林静宜 期货从业资格号F03139610 期货投资咨询从业证书号Z0021558 据农业推进情况，后期需求持续时间有限，库存或仍呈现增加趋势。UR2601合约短线预计在1600-1650区 间波动。 免责声明 本报告中的信息均来源于公开可获得资料，瑞达期货股份有限公司力求准确可靠，但对这些信息的准确性及完整性不做任 何保证，据此投资，责任自负。本报告不构成个人投资建议，客户应考虑本报告中的任何意见或建议是否符合其特定状况。本 | 项目类别 | 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 期货市场 | 郑州尿素主力合约收盘价(日,元/吨) | 1638 | 17 郑州尿素1-5价差(日,元/ ...

研究员: 林静宜 期货从业资格号F03139610 期货投资咨询从业证书号Z0021558 | 项目类别 | 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 期货市场 | 郑州尿素主力合约收盘价(日,元/吨) | 1600 | 3 郑州尿素1-5价差(日,元/吨) | -69 | 5 | | | 郑州尿素主力合约持仓量(日,手) | 322686 | 694 郑州尿素前20名净持仓 | -45781 | -1085 | | | 郑州尿素交易所仓单(日,张) | 6493 | -77 | | | | 现货市场 | 河北(日,元/吨) | 1590 | 20 河南(日,元/吨) | 1540 | 20 | | | 江苏(日,元/吨) | 1560 | 30 山东(日,元/吨) | 1550 | 0 | | | 安徽(日,元/吨) | 1560 | 10 郑州尿素主力合约基差(日,元/吨) | -50 | -3 | | | FOB波罗的海(日,美元/吨) | 370 | 0 FOB中国主港(日,美元/吨) | 385 | ...