经济观察网9月16日，Counterpoint Research发布2025年Q2欧洲智能手机市场报告：该市场在一季度低迷 后复苏，出货量同比增长4%。尽管经济、地缘政治挑战叠加欧盟新生态法规压力，厂商创新产品与促 销策略有效对冲了下行风险。品牌竞争中，荣耀成最大亮点，出货量同比激增42%，在TOP5厂商中增 幅领跑，跻身欧洲前四。其增长得益于折叠屏布局与技术创新，Magic V系列奠定基础，新品Magic V5 凭轻薄设计及端侧AI功能热销。 ...

Group 1 - The foldable screen sector experienced a strong upward movement at the beginning of trading, with Kosen Technology hitting the daily limit up [1] - Hongli Zhihui and Lihexing both saw increases of over 10% [1] - Defu Technology and Dalian Technology also followed with gains [1]

Company Overview - Jintaiyang Grinding Co., Ltd. is located in Dongguan, Guangdong Province, established on September 21, 2004, and listed on February 8, 2017. The company specializes in the research, production, and sales of new precision polishing materials, high-end intelligent equipment, and precision structural components, providing comprehensive solutions for precision polishing and manufacturing [1][2]. Financial Performance - As of June 30, 2025, Jintaiyang achieved operating revenue of 270 million yuan, representing a year-on-year growth of 15.82%. However, the net profit attributable to shareholders decreased by 9.35% to 14.71 million yuan [2]. - The company has distributed a total of 108 million yuan in dividends since its A-share listing, with 37.35 million yuan distributed over the past three years [3]. Stock Performance - On September 16, Jintaiyang's stock price increased by 2.32%, reaching 20.72 yuan per share, with a total market capitalization of 2.867 billion yuan. The stock has seen an 8.64% increase year-to-date, a 4.17% increase over the last five trading days, a 14.20% decrease over the last 20 days, and a 7.36% increase over the last 60 days [1]. - The stock's trading volume on September 16 was 39.09 million yuan, with a turnover rate of 1.63%. The net outflow of main funds was 659,900 yuan, with large orders accounting for 7.59% of purchases and 9.28% of sales [1]. Shareholder Information - As of June 30, 2025, the number of shareholders increased to 17,200, a rise of 0.25% from the previous period. The average circulating shares per person decreased by 0.18% to 6,930 shares [2]. - Among the top ten circulating shareholders, Ping An New Xin Pioneer Mixed A (000739) holds 759,500 shares, remaining unchanged from the previous period, while Ping An Advanced Manufacturing Theme Stock A (019457) has exited the top ten list [3]. Business Segmentation - The main business revenue composition includes: paper-based/fabric-based polishing materials (60.74%), intelligent CNC equipment and precision structural components (24.77%), new polishing materials (14.22%), and others (0.27%) [1]. - Jintaiyang is classified under the Shenwan industry category of machinery equipment - general equipment - abrasives and grinding materials, and is associated with concepts such as large aircraft, small-cap stocks, foldable screens, micro-cap stocks, and specialized and innovative enterprises [1].

Core Viewpoint - The stock of Dianzhi Technology has shown a significant increase in recent trading days, with a notable rise of 13.80% over the last five trading days, despite an overall decline of 8.83% since the beginning of the year [1] Financial Performance - For the first half of 2025, Dianzhi Technology reported a revenue of 2.524 billion yuan, representing a year-on-year growth of 17.71%. However, the net profit attributable to shareholders decreased by 21.10% to 243 million yuan [2] - Cumulatively, since its A-share listing, Dianzhi Technology has distributed a total of 889 million yuan in dividends, with 430 million yuan distributed over the past three years [3] Shareholder Structure - As of June 30, 2025, the number of shareholders for Dianzhi Technology was 29,100, a decrease of 5.60% from the previous period. The average number of tradable shares per shareholder increased by 5.94% to 12,333 shares [2] - The top ten circulating shareholders include Hong Kong Central Clearing Limited, which holds 13.5468 million shares, a decrease of 2.1482 million shares from the previous period. New entrants among the top shareholders include E Fund's ChiNext ETF, holding 6.7165 million shares [3] Market Activity - On September 16, Dianzhi Technology's stock price reached 54.00 yuan per share, with a trading volume of 336 million yuan and a turnover rate of 1.77%. The total market capitalization stood at 22.94 billion yuan [1] - The stock experienced a net inflow of 7.9661 million yuan from main funds, with significant buying activity from large orders, indicating positive market sentiment [1]

Core Insights - The Apple 2025 Fall New Product Launch has generated significant interest among consumers and institutions, with over 200 institutions visiting several Apple-related stocks [1][3] - Institutions are optimistic about the consumer electronics sector, anticipating that new Apple products will drive sales improvements and innovations in AI and wearable devices [1][6] Group 1: Institutional Interest - Multiple Apple-related stocks, including Crystal Optoelectronics, Shenzhen South Circuit, Lens Technology, and Luxshare Precision, have received intensive attention from institutions, with Crystal Optoelectronics hosting 330 institutional visits in the past month [3][4] - The focus on these companies is attributed to their roles in supplying components for Apple's new products, with Crystal Optoelectronics providing optical components and Lens Technology being a core supplier for AI glasses [3][4] Group 2: Market Outlook - The consumer electronics market is expected to see stable growth in the second half of the year, with companies like Luxshare Precision expressing confidence in their ability to adapt to market challenges and support potential AI brands [5][6] - Analysts from China Galaxy Securities and招商证券 are optimistic about the upcoming innovation cycle in the consumer electronics sector, driven by new Apple products and advancements in AI and foldable technology [6][7]

Core Insights - The Apple Fall Product Launch in 2025 is one of the most anticipated electronic product launches among consumers in early September this year [1] - Recent institutional research indicates that several Apple-related stocks, including Crystal Optoelectronics, Shenzhen South Circuit, Lens Technology, and Luxshare Precision, have received significant attention, with over 200 institutions visiting these companies for research [1] - Institutions are optimistic about the consumer electronics sector entering a period of intensive new product launches, expecting that new Apple products will drive sales improvement and advancements in AI and foldable screens, as well as innovation in wearable devices benefiting related supply chain companies [1]

Core Viewpoint - The upcoming Apple 2025 Fall New Product Launch is a major focus for consumers and institutions, with significant interest in related supply chain companies benefiting from new product releases and advancements in AI and foldable screens [1][5]. Group 1: Institutional Attention - Multiple Apple-related stocks, including Crystal Optoelectronics, Shenzhen South Circuit, Lens Technology, and Luxshare Precision, have received extensive institutional visits, with over 200 institutions visiting each [1][2]. - Crystal Optoelectronics has hosted 330 institutional visits in the past month, ranking third among companies in terms of institutional attention, and is developing optical upgrades for future customer models [2][3]. Group 2: Company Insights - Shenzhen South Circuit highlighted its diverse range of packaging substrate products, which are increasingly in demand due to the acceleration of AI technology and the need for high computing power in various applications [3]. - Lens Technology, a key supplier for North American clients, is focusing on smart wearable devices and has established long-term collaborations with major clients in the field [3]. - Luxshare Precision expressed confidence in a stable and slightly increasing market demand for the second half of the year, with a focus on supporting potential AI brands and products [4]. Group 3: Market Outlook - The release of new Apple products is expected to boost market interest in the consumer electronics sector, with a positive outlook for hardware innovation and AI synergy over the next three years [5]. - The consumer electronics sector is entering a period of intensive new product launches, with expectations for improved sales driven by Apple's new products and advancements in AI and wearable devices [5].

Core Viewpoint - Kosen Technology's stock price has experienced significant fluctuations, with a year-to-date increase of 73.46% but a recent decline of 13.49% over the past five trading days [1] Group 1: Company Overview - Kosen Technology, established on December 1, 2010, and listed on February 9, 2017, is located in Kunshan, Jiangsu Province [2] - The company specializes in precision manufacturing processes including die casting, forging, stamping, CNC, laser cutting, laser welding, MIM, and precision injection molding [2] - Kosen Technology serves notable clients such as Apple, Amazon, Google, and Medtronic, providing precision metal and plastic structural components for consumer electronics, medical devices, automotive (including new energy vehicles), LCD panels, and electronic cigarettes [2] Group 2: Financial Performance - For the first half of 2025, Kosen Technology reported revenue of 1.582 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 9.13%, while the net profit attributable to shareholders was -105 million yuan, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 34.51% [2] - The company has distributed a total of 283 million yuan in dividends since its A-share listing, with 71.68 million yuan distributed over the past three years [3] Group 3: Stock Market Activity - As of September 12, Kosen Technology's stock price was 13.53 yuan per share, with a market capitalization of 7.508 billion yuan [1] - The stock has seen a net outflow of 115 million yuan in principal funds, with significant buying and selling activity recorded [1] - Kosen Technology has appeared on the stock market's "Dragon and Tiger List" 16 times this year, indicating notable trading activity [1]

Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy-A" investment rating to the company, with a target price of 50.07 CNY per share based on a PS valuation method [8][9][17]. Core Insights - The company achieved a record high revenue of 1.009 billion CNY in H1 2025, representing a year-on-year increase of 27.77%. However, the net profit attributable to shareholders decreased by 74.52% to 0.06 million CNY [1][2]. - The growth in revenue is primarily driven by the sales of IO high-speed communication connectors, AI computing chip liquid cooling components, and new application FPCs. The company is expected to benefit from the ongoing AI trend and the emerging high-growth sectors [2][3]. - The company has entered the AI computing server liquid cooling market, achieving mass production of liquid cooling components in 2025. This segment is anticipated to provide continuous growth opportunities as demand for cooling solutions in AI servers increases [3][16]. Revenue and Profit Forecast - The company is projected to generate revenues of 2.207 billion CNY, 2.827 billion CNY, and 3.596 billion CNY for the years 2025, 2026, and 2027, respectively, with year-on-year growth rates of 29.02%, 28.11%, and 27.21% [4][13][17]. - The net profit attributable to shareholders is expected to be 0.42 million CNY, 1.33 million CNY, and 2.08 million CNY for the same years [4][17]. Business Segment Performance - The company's revenue from connector components, FPC, and LED backlight modules for H1 2025 was 0.452 billion CNY, 0.378 billion CNY, and 0.078 billion CNY, reflecting year-on-year growth rates of 46.94%, 23.50%, and a decline of 6.38%, respectively [3][12]. - The liquid cooling segment is expected to become a major growth driver, with significant demand anticipated from high-density scenarios in GPU servers and AI data centers [16]. Financial Metrics - The company’s financial metrics indicate a projected gross margin of 17.71%, 20.75%, and 22.37% for the years 2025, 2026, and 2027, respectively [13][22]. - The report highlights a stable control over expenses, with sales, management, and R&D expense ratios for H1 2025 at 1.77%, 6.85%, and 7.04%, respectively [2][3]. Market Position and Comparables - The report compares the company with peers such as Yingweike, Hongxin Technology, Shenglan Co., and Longli Technology, noting similarities in product applications and market segments [17]. - The average PS ratio of comparable companies is referenced to support the valuation of the company [17][19].

Core Insights - Despite recent positive responses to new foldable devices, global foldable smartphone shipments are expected to remain flat at approximately 15.2 million units for the year, with 2026 anticipated to be a turning point for growth [1][4] - The foldable smartphone market is projected to see a significant year-on-year increase of 51% in shipments by 2026, driven by intensified competition and more affordable clamshell models [1] - The foldable smartphone segment remains a niche market, accounting for only 1.0-1.5% of global shipments, but it holds substantial strategic value and revenue potential for manufacturers [8][10] Market Dynamics - In the first half of 2025, global shipments of foldable smartphones are expected to remain stable at around 6.6 million units, with China showing a notable growth of 32.8%, primarily driven by Huawei's Mate and Pura X series [4] - The U.S. market, while growing at a more modest rate of 7%, is led by the Motorola Razr 2025 series [4] - The foldable smartphone market is characterized by a low single-digit percentage of the overall smartphone market, raising questions about its role in manufacturers' business strategies [4] Innovation and Strategy - Foldable smartphones serve as a testbed for hardware innovation and brand differentiation, allowing manufacturers to showcase their technological leadership and engineering capabilities [7] - The average selling price (ASP) of foldable devices is significantly higher than standard smartphones, with book-style foldables priced 289% higher and clamshell models 123% higher than traditional devices [13][16] - Samsung's Galaxy Z Fold7, priced at approximately $1,899, generates revenue equivalent to about 15 entry-level Galaxy A06 4G devices, highlighting the high revenue potential of foldable devices [10] Consumer Perception and Adoption - A consumer study indicated that while 96% of respondents are aware of foldable smartphones, nearly 40% expressed disinterest, often due to budget constraints or unmet needs [11][13] - The adoption of foldable smartphones faces challenges related to user interaction and the need for behavioral changes, as consumers must rethink how they engage with their devices [13] - Manufacturers are exploring enterprise applications for foldable devices, emphasizing productivity advantages in professional settings, such as multitasking and document editing [14] Future Outlook - The foldable smartphone market is expected to evolve, with manufacturers needing to address barriers to adoption and enhance consumer experiences through innovative retail strategies [11][14] - The focus on high-end markets and brand differentiation will continue to drive the strategic importance of foldable devices, even as they remain a small segment of overall smartphone sales [15]