核 心 观 点 3月以来，央行对资金面的态度边际缓和，资金面转向均衡态势。那么，4月政府债供给有多少？流动性缺 口有多大？资金面转松了么？ 资金面有何变化？ 资金利率方面 ， 3月 短端资金利率趋于下行，资金面整体均衡偏松；流动性分层现象 接近消失，R007与DR007利差处于较低位。 央行操作方面 ，中下旬以来，央行公开市场由净回笼转为净 投放，呵护税期流动性，月末央行开展4500亿元MLF操作，为去年8月以来首次超额续作，同时价格改为 多重招标。 长债利率方面 ，3月债市快速回调后企稳，10Y国债利率较2月末上行9.8BP。 债券托管方面 ，3月债券托管规模环比增速上行，分券种看，利率债托管环比增量扩大，其中地方债继续贡献主要增 量；分机构看，2月政府债券供给大幅抬升，商业银行仍是承接的主要力量。 政府债供给多少？ 国债方面 ，4月已经公布的两只附息国债发行规模较3月进一步增长，据此我们预计4月 普通国债或将发行1.16万亿元，考虑1.2万亿元的到期量后，4月国债净融资规模约-455亿元。 地方债方面 ，我们预计4月地方政府新增债和普通再融资债规模分别为3200亿元和3800亿元；特殊再融资债预计二季 度 ...

Core Viewpoint - Since the beginning of the year, the funding environment has remained tight, particularly with a noticeable increase in short-term interest rates. The article explores the remaining government debt supply for the first quarter, the liquidity gap in March, and whether the funding situation will improve [1][4]. Group 1: Funding Tightness - The funding environment has been tight since the start of 2025, with the central bank increasing the scale of reverse repos. Despite this, the pressure on liquidity has slightly eased from January to February, with a reduction in liquidity stratification [1][4]. - The central bank's operations included a resumption of 14-day reverse repos before the Spring Festival, while the scale of medium-term lending facility (MLF) continued to decrease. The buyout reverse repo operations have provided significant support for medium to long-term liquidity [5][6]. Group 2: Government Debt Supply - In March, it is estimated that the issuance of government bonds will reach approximately 1.4 trillion yuan, with a net financing scale of nearly 650 billion yuan after accounting for 712.2 billion yuan in maturing bonds. Local government bonds are expected to total around 1.3 trillion yuan, resulting in a combined net financing scale of over 1.8 trillion yuan for government debt [2][14]. Group 3: Liquidity Outlook - The liquidity gap in March is projected to be around 260 billion yuan, indicating some pressure on the funding environment. However, after the "Two Sessions," funding rates are expected to trend towards easing, with the central bank's net injection likely to increase marginally [3][19]. - The article suggests that the central bank may primarily use buyout reverse repos to supplement medium to long-term liquidity during the phase of increased government debt supply, which could lead to a decrease in funding rates, especially for short-term bonds [19].