Group 1: Report Industry Investment Ratings - No specific industry investment ratings are provided in the report [2] Group 2: Core Views of the Report - The index has broken through the upper edge of the short - term shock range and the central position continues to move up during the new round of US trade policy negotiation window, but caution is needed when testing key positions. For the stock index, unilateral strategy suggests range operation and appropriate multi - allocation on dips [2] - The central bank's increase in open - market investment has improved the bond market sentiment, and the future situation of the tax - period capital and government bond supply needs to be observed. Curve strategy can appropriately bet on steepening [2] - There is more long - short game in the short - term gold market with support at the 60 - day moving average. Buying on dips is recommended for gold and silver, and there may be a phased pulse - type rise in silver [2] - The container shipping index is expected to oscillate strongly. For the EC2508 contract, unilateral operation is recommended to wait and see, and multi - material and short - raw material arbitrage can be considered [2] - Industrial material demand and inventory are deteriorating, and the decline in apparent demand should be noted. For steel, iron ore, coking coal, and coke, buying on dips is recommended [2] - For copper, attention should be paid to the Sino - US tariff negotiation rhythm. The aluminum market has a strong expectation of off - season inventory accumulation. For non - ferrous metals, different trading strategies are given according to different varieties [2] - The short - term oil price has rebounded due to geopolitical risks. For different energy and chemical products, various trading strategies such as waiting and seeing, range operation, and buying on dips are recommended according to their fundamentals [2] - For agricultural products, different trading strategies such as short - term long, short - term wait - and - see, and short - selling on rebounds are recommended according to different varieties [2] - For special commodities and new energy products, trading strategies such as waiting and seeing, buying on dips, and short - selling on rallies are recommended according to different varieties [2] Group 3: Summaries by Related Categories Financial Sector - **Stock Index**: The index has broken through the short - term shock range, but caution is needed at key positions. Unilateral strategy suggests range operation and appropriate multi - allocation on dips [2] - **Treasury Bond**: The central bank's open - market operation has improved sentiment, and future capital and supply situations need to be observed. Curve strategy can bet on steepening [2] - **Precious Metals**: Gold has support at the 60 - day moving average, and buying on dips is recommended. Silver may have a phased pulse - type rise [2] Shipping and Industrial Materials Sector - **Container Shipping Index**: Expected to oscillate strongly. Unilateral operation on the EC2508 contract should wait and see, and arbitrage opportunities can be considered [2] - **Steel**: Industrial material demand and inventory are poor. Attention should be paid to the decline in apparent demand, and buying on dips is recommended [2] - **Iron Ore, Coking Coal, Coke**: Black market sentiment has improved, and buying on dips is recommended [2] Non - Ferrous Metals Sector - **Copper**: Attention should be paid to the Sino - US tariff negotiation rhythm. The mid - term surplus pattern remains unchanged [2] - **Aluminum**: There is a strong expectation of off - season inventory accumulation, and different price ranges are given for different varieties [2] Energy and Chemical Sector - **Crude Oil**: The short - term oil price has rebounded due to geopolitical risks. Different trading strategies are given for different energy and chemical products according to their fundamentals [2] Agricultural Products Sector - Different trading strategies such as short - term long, short - term wait - and - see, and short - selling on rebounds are recommended for different agricultural products [2] Special Commodities and New Energy Sector - Different trading strategies such as waiting and seeing, buying on dips, and short - selling on rallies are recommended for special commodities and new energy products [2]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided regarding the report industry investment rating. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The issuance rhythm of government bonds in the first half of 2025 was significantly faster than in previous years, with the net financing progress reaching about 58.66% of the annual forecast. The supply pressure of treasury bonds is expected to ease in the second half of the year, while the supply of local bonds is likely to accelerate. The game between the increased supply after the early - trading and policy expectations is the key point in the bond market [8][2][3]. - The net financing peak of government bonds in the second half of the year is expected to be in July - August, and the supply peak may appear as early as late July. By the end of the third quarter, as the supply of government bonds weakens and the "14th Five - Year Plan" nears completion, there may be a new expectation of increased government bond issuance. The 9 - 11 months are the policy observation windows [3][37][40]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 Treasury Bonds: The Issuance Rhythm is Generally Fast, and the Supply Pressure Tends to Ease in the Second Half of the Year 3.1.1 H1 Review: The Overall Net Financing Progress Exceeds Half, and the Issuance of Special Treasury Bonds is Significantly Ahead - In the first half of 2025, treasury bonds were issued in large quantities, with a cumulative issuance of 7.89 trillion yuan and a net financing of 3.38 trillion yuan. The net financing progress reached 51.45% of the annual forecast, significantly faster than the average level of the past five years [9]. - For ordinary treasury bonds, the issuance was 6.83 trillion yuan, and the net financing was 2.53 trillion yuan, an increase of 343.8 billion yuan year - on - year. The number of issuance periods decreased, and the single - period scale increased [12]. - For special treasury bonds, the issuance was 105.5 billion yuan, and the net financing was 85.5 billion yuan, an increase of 60.5 billion yuan year - on - year. The issuance was ahead of schedule, with 55.5 billion yuan of ultra - long - term special treasury bonds and 50 billion yuan of capital - injection special treasury bonds issued [14]. 3.1.2 H2 Outlook: The Issuance of Special Treasury Bonds is Advanced, and the Supply Pressure of Treasury Bonds is Weakened - It is estimated that about 7.78 trillion yuan of treasury bonds are to be issued in the second half of the year, with an expected net financing of 3.19 trillion yuan. The supply pressure is expected to ease. The issuance of ordinary treasury bonds is about 6.94 trillion yuan, with a relatively stable rhythm. The net financing peaks may occur in August and November [16]. - There are 745 billion yuan of special treasury bonds to be issued, and the single - period scale may increase. The issuance will focus on the peak - shifting effect to relieve the instantaneous issuance impact. The issuance peak of all treasury bonds may be concentrated from July to September, and the net financing peaks may occur in August, September, and November [18][20]. 3.2 Local Bonds: The Main Line of Debt Resolution Switches to Steady Growth, and the Supply is Expected to Accelerate in the Second Half of the Year 3.2.1 H1 Review: Debt Resolution was the Main Line in the First Half of the Year, and the Issuance of New Bonds Accelerated at the End of the Second Quarter - In the first half of 2025, local bonds were issued cumulatively at 5.49 trillion yuan, with a net financing of 4.41 trillion yuan, completing 65.81% of the annual progress. The issuance of new local bonds increased year - on - year, with 452 billion yuan of new general bonds and 2.16 trillion yuan of new special bonds issued [22][24]. - The issuance of local refinancing bonds was mainly for debt resolution, with a total issuance of 2.88 trillion yuan, an increase of 1.21 trillion yuan year - on - year. Among them, the special refinancing special bonds for repaying existing debts were issued at 1.8 trillion yuan [26]. 3.2.2 H2 Outlook: The Supply of Local Bonds is Expected to Accelerate, and the Peak May Come in Late July - As of July 6, the planned issuance of local bonds in the third quarter in 29 provincial - level administrative regions and planned -单列 cities is 2.61 trillion yuan. It is expected that the total supply scale of local bonds in the second half of the year will be about 4.2 trillion yuan, forming a net financing scale of 2.27 trillion yuan. The issuance may accelerate in late July [33][34]. 3.3 Bond Market: The Game between the Increased Supply after the Early - trading and Policy Expectations is the Key Point - The net financing peak of government bonds in the second half of the year is expected to be in July - August, and the supply peak may appear as early as late July. The supply pressure may ease in the fourth quarter, but attention should be paid to the impact of the maturity volume fluctuation of treasury bonds from November to December [37]. - By the end of the third quarter, as the supply of government bonds weakens and the "14th Five - Year Plan" nears completion, there may be a new expectation of increased government bond issuance. Historically, fiscal policies have been dynamically adjusted beyond the initial plan from September to November. The 9 - 11 months are the policy observation windows [40][41]. - The game between the supply pressure change of government bonds and policy expectations is one of the logical main lines of bond - market pricing. The early - trading in the bond market contradicts the actual supply pressure in July - August. There may be a new market expectation of policy efforts from the end of the third quarter to the fourth quarter [50].

Group 1: Manufacturing PMI - In June, China's manufacturing PMI rose to 49.7%, up from 49.5% in the previous month, indicating a slight recovery in manufacturing activity [1] - The production index increased by 0.3 percentage points to 51%, while the new orders index rose by 0.4 percentage points to 50.2%, suggesting improving demand [1] - The current PMI is primarily affected by the backlog of finished goods inventory, but as inventory is gradually digested, new order growth momentum is expected to be released further [1] Group 2: Non-Manufacturing PMI - The non-manufacturing PMI for June was 50.5%, an increase of 0.2 percentage points from the previous value [1] - The construction PMI rose by 1.8 percentage points to 52.8%, likely linked to the acceleration of "two heavy" projects and stronger policies to stabilize the real estate market [1] - The service sector PMI slightly declined by 0.1 percentage points to 50.1%, possibly due to reduced offline travel activity after holiday effects [1] Group 3: Government Debt Supply and Funding - In the first half of the year, the fiscal supply was robust, with 6.66 trillion yuan of government bonds issued, representing 51% of the annual quota [3] - Local government special bond issuance accelerated in June, with 4.4 trillion yuan of new quotas, and 48% already issued [3] - The overall issuance volume is expected to remain stable in the second half, with a projected issuance of 5.8 trillion yuan, keeping liquidity pressure manageable [3] Group 4: Future Outlook - The third quarter is expected to see a peak in local government special bond issuance, which may enhance funding for local-led projects [4] - The central bank's monetary policy tools are anticipated to support financing for "two heavy" and "two new" projects, potentially increasing infrastructure investment [4] - The economic recovery remains weak, with external demand showing marginal improvement, but internal economic momentum still requires strengthening [5]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - The main tone of "moderately loose monetary policy" remains unchanged, and stabilizing growth is still the central bank's primary short - term goal. If economic growth shows no improvement and faces more pressure, a new round of broad monetary policy may be launched [1]. - In July, the large - scale supply of government bonds and tax - payment factors will significantly interfere with the capital market. However, the central bank's support for the capital market is expected to continue, with overnight and 7 - day capital interest rates likely to remain stable [1]. - The supply - demand structure of inter - bank certificates of deposit (CDs) will further improve in July, with the maturity scale of CDs decreasing and the interest rate having room to decline [1]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Current Situation and Future Concerns - From June 23 to June 27, the central bank made substantial net injections to support cross - quarter liquidity, leading to a divergence in capital prices. Overnight capital interest rates were stable, while 7 - day rates rose significantly, and the liquidity stratification phenomenon was obvious [5]. - The second - quarter monetary policy committee meeting changed the wording, but it doesn't rule out the possibility of broad monetary policy in the third quarter. If the economy doesn't improve, new policies may be introduced [5]. - In July, large government bond supply and tax - payment factors will affect the capital market, but the central bank's support is expected to continue. The overnight capital interest rate may fluctuate around the policy rate, and the 7 - day rate may return to around 1.5% [6]. - It is estimated that in July 2025, government bond issuance will be 2.61 - 2.86 trillion yuan, with net financing of 1.45 - 1.70 trillion yuan, slightly higher than in June. The supply of ultra - long - term special treasury bonds may increase, and new local government special bonds are expected to be the main type in the third quarter [6]. - In July, MLF and buy - out repurchase maturities total 1.5 trillion yuan, more than in June. The central bank's operation method has enhanced its control over medium - and long - term liquidity [10]. - Thanks to the central bank's support, in June, CDs maintained high - volume issuance with stable or decreasing prices. In July, the supply - demand structure of CDs will improve, and the interest rate has room to decline [10]. 3.2 Money Market Interest Rate Tracking - From June 23 to June 27, overnight capital interest rates were stable (DR001 around 1.37%, R001 between 1.44% - 1.46%), while 7 - day rates rose (DR007 from 1.51% to 1.70%, R007 from 1.56% to 1.92%), and the liquidity stratification was obvious [13]. - During this period, the bank's capital lending scale increased, the money fund's lending scale decreased, and the bond market leverage ratio continued to rise [17]. - From June 23 to June 27, bill interest rates first decreased and then increased, with the 3M national - share discount rate and half - year national - share transfer discount rate showing corresponding changes [22]. 3.3 Open Market Operation Tracking - As of June 27, the central bank's total balance of open - market operations was 1168.85 billion yuan, including 202.75 billion yuan in pledged repurchase, 480 billion yuan in buy - out repurchase, and 515 billion yuan in MLF [23]. - From June 23 to June 27, the central bank's net injection in open - market operations was 126.72 billion yuan, with 106.72 billion yuan in pledged repurchase. In June, buy - out repurchase and MLF maturities and net injections were as expected. From June 30 to July 4, pledged repurchase maturities reached 202.75 billion yuan [27]. 3.4 Government Bond Tracking 3.4.1 Government Bond Issuance - From June 23 to June 27, treasury bond issuance was 11.1 billion yuan, and net financing was 11.1 billion yuan; local bond issuance was 64.164 billion yuan, with net financing of 56.0393 billion yuan [33]. - It is estimated that from June 30 to July 4, treasury bond issuance will be 0 yuan, with net financing of - 8.015 billion yuan; local bond issuance will be 7.2139 billion yuan, with net financing of 2.1676 billion yuan [33]. 3.4.2 Government Bond Payment - From June 23 to June 27, government bond net payment was 78.981 billion yuan, including 33.1 billion yuan for treasury bonds and 45.881 billion yuan for local bonds. It is estimated that from June 30 to July 4, the net payment will be - 0.594 billion yuan [39]. 3.5 Inter - bank Certificate of Deposit Tracking 3.5.1 Primary Market of Inter - bank CDs - From June 23 to June 27, inter - bank CD issuance was 72.64 billion yuan, with net financing of - 41.15 billion yuan. The maturity scale from June 30 to July 4 was 27.67 billion yuan. By bank type, city commercial banks had the highest issuance; by term type, 3M CDs had the highest issuance [42]. - The overall issuance success rate was 94%. State - owned banks and other banks had a 100% success rate, and 3M CDs had a 95% success rate. The issuance interest rates of all types of banks and terms decreased [42][43]. 3.5.2 Secondary Market of Inter - bank CDs - From June 23 to June 27, despite the tightened cross - quarter liquidity, the yields of secondary - market CDs of all terms increased slightly, and the yield curve was partially inverted [60]. 3.6 Excess Reserve Ratio Tracking - The estimated excess reserve ratio at the end of May 2025 was 0.52%. From June 23 to June 27, the central bank's net injection in open - market operations was 126.72 billion yuan, and government bond net payment was 78.981 billion yuan, increasing the excess reserve scale by 47.739 billion yuan [64].

Core Viewpoint - Since May, with the reduction of policy interest rates, the liquidity has further eased, but after the reserve requirement ratio (RRR) cut, the funding rates have risen instead. The article discusses the expected government bond supply in June and the liquidity gap, questioning whether the funding environment will tighten or loosen further [1] Group 1: Market Interest Rates - Funding rates continued to decline in May, with the average R007 and DR007 down by 16.1 basis points and 14.5 basis points to 1.61% and 1.58% respectively. Various SHIBOR and interbank certificate of deposit rates also decreased compared to the previous month [4][5] - After the RRR cut on May 15, the funding environment began to tighten, and the central bank's operations shifted to small net injections towards the end of the month, with a total liquidity injection of around 1 trillion yuan [5][6] Group 2: Government Bond Supply - In June, the government is expected to issue approximately 1.38 trillion yuan in national bonds, with a net financing scale of around 490 billion yuan. Local government bonds are projected to total nearly 900 billion yuan, leading to a combined government bond issuance of about 2.3 trillion yuan and a net financing scale of approximately 920 billion yuan [2][22] Group 3: Funding Pressure and Liquidity - The net financing pressure is alleviated due to the increase in government bond maturities in June, with expectations of a decrease in government deposits by about 1.1 trillion yuan. The seasonal increase in bank reserve requirements is expected to consume around 290 billion yuan of excess reserves [3][32] - The central bank's monetary policy remains a crucial variable, with limited room for further easing in the short term due to reduced liquidity pressure and the recent rise in long-term bond rates [3][32]

Summary of Conference Call Records Industry Overview - The records primarily discuss the bond market and its dynamics in the context of macroeconomic factors, particularly focusing on interest rates, government debt supply, and the impact of U.S.-China relations on the market [1][2][3][5][8]. Key Points and Arguments Interest Rates and Monetary Policy - Current funding rates are inverted compared to bond market rates, raising market concerns; however, historical experience suggests maintaining a loose monetary policy in the face of uncertainty is advisable [1][3][4]. - The central bank has signaled a direction of easing through reverse repos and MLF operations, indicating that even without immediate further easing, hesitation should be avoided to prevent missing opportunities [1][4][15]. - The overall view for the bond market in May remains bullish despite a lack of immediate easing signals; historical trends show that May typically sees downward movement in bond markets, except in specific years due to various economic factors [2][13]. U.S.-China Relations - Uncertainty in U.S.-China relations continues to exert pressure on the market; recent comments from Trump about potential tariff reductions should not be overestimated, as substantial progress in negotiations is still lacking [5][7][8]. - The trade negotiations have not yielded significant breakthroughs, and the ongoing trade war initiated by the U.S. requires more time for resolution [5][7][8]. Domestic Economic Conditions - Internal macro and micro pressures are becoming more evident, but the likelihood of the central bank returning to a tight funding state is low; thus, maintaining a bullish outlook is deemed more rational [6][10]. - Domestic policies have been adjusted to support enterprises, but these measures have not exceeded expectations, indicating a stable but cautious approach to economic management [8][9]. Government Debt Supply - April saw a peak in government debt supply, with total issuance exceeding 2 trillion yuan, but net financing was relatively low due to high maturities; May is expected to see a rebound in net financing to approximately 1.3 trillion yuan [11]. - The impact of government debt supply on the bond market is contingent on the central bank's cooperation, which is likely to increase amid rising uncertainties [11][12]. Market Dynamics and Investment Strategy - The primary drivers of interest rate declines since March have shifted to non-bank institutions, with a stable liability side supporting continued bullish strategies in the bond market [12][15]. - The current investment strategy should focus on long-duration investments, leveraging the positive signals from the central bank to maintain a bullish stance [15][16]. Predictions and Recommendations - Predictions regarding market points should be flexible; reliance on preset points may hinder effective operations, as market dynamics can lead to unexpected movements [17]. - The overall sentiment for the bond market remains optimistic, provided that no significant negative changes occur in credit, government debt, or other asset classes [13][14]. Additional Important Insights - High-frequency data has not yet shown significant impacts from tariffs and trade friction, indicating that the negative effects may manifest gradually [9][10]. - The production side has shown resilience, but demand indicators, particularly in new housing sales, have been weaker, necessitating close monitoring of shipping metrics [10].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - As the focus of monetary policy shifts from "stabilizing the exchange rate and preventing idle circulation" in Q1 to "stabilizing growth" since the start of the trade - war, the capital market re - balances. The capital market in April was generally balanced and loose, with capital interest rates moving closer to the 7D OMO policy rate. It is expected to cross the month smoothly [2][6]. - There may be a certain gap in the medium - and long - term liquidity of banks. The government bond supply in May is the biggest factor affecting the capital market, with an estimated net financing scale between 1.44 - 2.19 trillion yuan. The pressure on the bank's liability side and the accelerated supply of government bonds in May indicate the need for the central bank to provide liquidity support, especially medium - and long - term support. The order of loose monetary policy remains "reserve requirement ratio cut + structural monetary policy tools first, interest rate cut later" [2][7][8]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 Current Situation and Future Concerns - In April, the capital market was balanced and loose, with DR001 dropping from around 1.8% to around 1.6%, and the DR007 - R007 spread remaining within 10bp and even within 5bp from the middle of the month. It is expected to cross the month smoothly [6]. - In April, the net lending balance fluctuated around 3 trillion yuan, a historically low level, and the decline of certificate of deposit (CD) interest rates faced resistance after mid - April, indicating a possible gap in medium - and long - term bank liquidity. The government plans to use 5 trillion yuan in investment funds this year, with the ultra - long - term special treasury bonds starting issuance on April 24 and 7 more issues to be issued from May to June. As of April, 1.19 trillion yuan of new local government special bonds have been issued [7]. - The government bond supply in May is the biggest factor affecting the capital market, with an estimated net financing scale between 1.44 - 2.19 trillion yuan. The bank's liability side pressure and the accelerated supply of government bonds in May require the central bank to provide liquidity support. The mid - and long - term liquidity roll - over pressure in May has significantly decreased compared to April. If the "timely reserve requirement ratio cut and interest rate cut" is implemented in May, it is expected to drive down the capital interest rate center [8][11]. 3.2 Money Market Interest Rate Tracking - From April 21 to April 25, the central bank conducted 600 billion yuan of MLF operations, with a net injection of 500 billion yuan for medium - and long - term liquidity support. The capital market became loose after being balanced. DR001 dropped from 1.72% to 1.58%, R001 from 1.74% to 1.58%, DR007 from 1.71% to 1.64%, and R007 from 1.73% to 1.66%. The spread between R007 and DR007 remained within 5bp [12]. - From April 21 to April 25, the bank's capital lending scale increased slightly, with the daily net lending balance of state - owned and joint - stock banks rising from 2.81 trillion yuan to 3.27 trillion yuan, and that of money market funds decreasing from 2.13 trillion yuan to 1.93 trillion yuan [18]. - From April 21 to April 25, the bill interest rate changed little, with the 3M state - owned and joint - stock discount rate fluctuating slightly around 1%, and the six - month state - owned and joint - stock transfer discount rate rising from 1.04% to 1.09% [22]. 3.3 Open Market Operation Tracking - As of April 27, the central bank's open market operation balance was 10.3 trillion yuan, including 97.2 billion yuan in pledged repurchase balance, 5.1 trillion yuan in outright repurchase balance, and 4.657 trillion yuan in MLF balance. From April 21 to April 27, the central bank's open market operations had a net injection of 86.4 billion yuan. From April 28 to April 30, 50.45 billion yuan of repurchase agreements matured [28]. 3.4 Government Bond Tracking 3.4.1 Government Bond Issuance - From April 21 to April 25, 326 billion yuan of treasury bonds were issued, with a net financing of - 181.83 billion yuan; 191.123 billion yuan of local bonds were issued, including 75.066 billion yuan of new local bonds and 116.056 billion yuan of refinancing local bonds, with a net financing of 162.512 billion yuan. It is estimated that from April 28 to April 30, no treasury bonds will be issued, and 93.092 billion yuan of local bonds will be issued, with a net financing of 92.665 billion yuan [35]. 3.4.2 Government Bond Payment - From April 21 to April 25, the net payment of government bonds was - 80.13 billion yuan, including - 131.83 billion yuan for treasury bonds and 51.7 billion yuan for local bonds. It is estimated that from April 28 to April 30, the net payment of government bonds will be 121.08 billion yuan, all for local bonds [42]. 3.5 Certificate of Deposit (CD) Tracking 3.5.1 Primary Market of CDs - From April 21 to April 25, 749.6 billion yuan of CDs were issued, a month - on - month increase of 40 billion yuan; the net financing was - 19.7 billion yuan, a month - on - month decrease of 16.2 billion yuan. From April 28 to April 30, 331.6 billion yuan of CDs matured, with significantly reduced maturity pressure. State - owned banks had the highest issuance scale. In terms of maturity types, 3M CDs had the highest issuance scale. The overall issuance success rate was 95%, with state - owned banks having the highest success rate of 99%, and 3M, 6M, and 1Y CDs having a success rate of 95% [45]. - In terms of issuance interest rates, from April 21 to April 25, the issuance interest rates of CDs of various types of banks and different maturities basically remained at the previous week's level (changes within 1bp) [46]. 3.5.2 Secondary Market of CDs - From April 21 to April 25, although the capital market became loose after being balanced, the primary market of CDs still needed to raise prices to attract demand, indicating a medium - and long - term liquidity gap in banks. The yields of CDs of various maturities in the secondary market changed little, with a change range of no more than 1bp. The CD yield curve showed a local inversion of 1bp at 9M and 1Y [66]. 3.6 Excess Reserve Ratio Tracking - The excess reserve ratio in late March 2025 was estimated to be 1.05%. From April 21 to April 27, the central bank's open market net injection was 86.4 billion yuan, and the net payment of government bonds was - 80.13 billion yuan, increasing the excess reserve scale by 94.413 billion yuan [73].

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article highlights the significant increase in government bond issuance, with a net financing scale of approximately 1.77 trillion yuan in Q2, which is about 700 billion yuan higher than the same period last year [1][3] - In Q1, the net financing scale of government bonds exceeded 1.4 trillion yuan, accounting for 22% of the annual plan of 6.66 trillion yuan, indicating a faster issuance pace compared to previous years [2] - The total issuance scale of local government bonds in Q1 reached a historical high of 2.84 trillion yuan, with special refinancing bonds contributing significantly to the increase [2] Group 2 - The issuance plan for special government bonds in Q2 shows an accelerated pace compared to 2024, reflecting a clear tendency for fiscal policy to take the lead [3] - The expected total issuance scale of local bonds in Q2 is 2.8 trillion yuan, with a net issuance scale close to 2 trillion yuan, indicating robust fiscal activity [3][4] - The necessity for monetary policy support is increasing as fiscal policy expands, with potential measures including reserve requirement ratio cuts and increased open market operations to enhance liquidity supply [4]

核 心 观 点 3月以来，央行对资金面的态度边际缓和，资金面转向均衡态势。那么，4月政府债供给有多少？流动性缺 口有多大？资金面转松了么？ 资金面有何变化？ 资金利率方面 ， 3月 短端资金利率趋于下行，资金面整体均衡偏松；流动性分层现象 接近消失，R007与DR007利差处于较低位。 央行操作方面 ，中下旬以来，央行公开市场由净回笼转为净 投放，呵护税期流动性，月末央行开展4500亿元MLF操作，为去年8月以来首次超额续作，同时价格改为 多重招标。 长债利率方面 ，3月债市快速回调后企稳，10Y国债利率较2月末上行9.8BP。 债券托管方面 ，3月债券托管规模环比增速上行，分券种看，利率债托管环比增量扩大，其中地方债继续贡献主要增 量；分机构看，2月政府债券供给大幅抬升，商业银行仍是承接的主要力量。 政府债供给多少？ 国债方面 ，4月已经公布的两只附息国债发行规模较3月进一步增长，据此我们预计4月 普通国债或将发行1.16万亿元，考虑1.2万亿元的到期量后，4月国债净融资规模约-455亿元。 地方债方面 ，我们预计4月地方政府新增债和普通再融资债规模分别为3200亿元和3800亿元；特殊再融资债预计二季 度 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - The Q2 2025 national debt issuance plan is unusual, with multiple - maturity ordinary national debts breaking the regular issuance pattern, likely to make way for special national debts. We can infer the issuance method and rhythm of special national debts from these irregular arrangements [8]. Summary by Catalog 1. Issuance Method of Capital - Injection Special National Debts: Higher Probability of Public Issuance - **Clue 1: Limited Single - Issue Scale of Capital - Injection Special National Debts, Low Necessity for Directed Issuance** - Historically, the issuance methods of special national debts have evolved from "directed issuance" in 1998 to "directed issuance + public issuance" in 2007 and then to "public issuance" since 2020. Since 2020, only the roll - over of some large - scale special national debts at maturity has used the directed method, while new special national debts have all been publicly issued [10]. - The current "directed capital injection" by the Ministry of Finance into the four major banks refers to directed stock subscription, not "directed issuance" at the bond issuance end. The first - batch special national debt scale is 50 billion yuan, with the Ministry of Finance injecting capital into four banks through stock subscription. If publicly issued, the single - issue scale of 12.5 billion yuan is less than the current 17 - billion - yuan scale of key - maturity national debts, and the pressure on institutional underwriting is not large. Also, since mid - March, the issuance price of large - state - owned and joint - stock bank certificates of deposit has declined, indicating reduced pressure on large banks' liability ends [11][13]. - **Clue 2: The Ministry of Finance Mentions Promoting Capital Supplement Work According to the "Market - Oriented" Principle** - Since 2020, the issuance of special national debts has often mentioned using the "market - oriented method". In 2025, the Ministry of Finance also emphasized the "market - oriented" principle for the current capital - injection special national debts, so they are likely to be publicly issued [16]. - **Clue 3: 5 - 7y Key - Maturity Ordinary National Debts "Make Way" for Corresponding - Maturity Capital - Injection Special National Debts** - The irregular arrangement of 5 - 7y ordinary national debts in Q2 shows an obvious feature of "making way" for 5 - 7y capital - injection special national debts. When 4 additional 5 - 7y capital - injection special national debts are issued, 4 issues of 5 - 7y ordinary national debts are reduced, and the time points can be corresponding. If it were a directed issuance, this arrangement would be unnecessary [19]. 2. When Will the Ultra - Long - Term Special National Debts Be Issued: Higher Probability in May - **Clue 1: The Ministry of Finance Mentions that the Issuance Arrangement of Ultra - Long - Term Special National Debts Will Be Announced Separately, with a High Probability of Issuance in Q2** - Similar to 2024, the Q2 2025 national debt issuance plan also mentions that the issuance arrangement of ultra - long - term special national debts will be announced separately, which may indicate an upcoming issuance in Q2. In 2024, the ultra - long - term special national debts started to be issued in May [20]. - **Clue 2: The Issuance of Ultra - Long - Term Ordinary National Debts Will Be Suspended from May, Likely to Make Way for the Issuance of Ultra - Long - Term Special National Debts** - In 2024, the ultra - long - term ordinary national debts clearly made way for ultra - long - term special national debts. The issuance of ultra - long - term ordinary national debts was suspended when the ultra - long - term special national debts started to be issued in May 2024 and resumed in December 2024 after the special national debts were fully issued. In the Q2 2025 national debt issuance plan, the issuance of 30y and 50y ultra - long - term ordinary national debts will be suspended from May, which may be a signal for the start of ultra - long - term special national debt issuance [22][23]. 3. Outlook on the Subsequent Supply Rhythm of Government Bonds - **National Debts** - In Q2, the net financing may be 1.9 trillion yuan, including 1.1 trillion yuan of ordinary national debts and 800 billion yuan of special national debts. Due to the maturity pressure in April, the net financing is 120 billion yuan, and it may rise to 700 billion yuan and 1 trillion yuan in May and June respectively. In the third and fourth quarters, the net financing of national debts will be 2.3 trillion yuan and 1 trillion yuan respectively [2][24]. - **Local Debts** - In Q2, the net financing may be 1.8 trillion yuan, with new special bonds being 1.3 trillion yuan. The net financing in the third and fourth quarters may be 2 trillion yuan and 700 billion yuan respectively. In Q2, referring to the local debt issuance plan, the net financing in April - May is around 700 billion yuan, and it will decline to 470 billion yuan in June. In the second half of the year, referring to historical issuance progress, the peak of local debt net financing may be in August, with single - month net financing approaching 1 trillion yuan [27]. - **Government Bonds** - Pay attention to the supply pressure from May to June and from August to September. In Q2, the net financing is 3.7 trillion yuan, with less pressure in April and rising to 1.4 - 1.5 trillion yuan in May - June. In the third quarter, the net financing may reach 4.3 trillion yuan, and the supply pressure from August to September may be relatively large, with single - month net financing ranging from 1.4 trillion yuan to 2 trillion yuan. In the fourth quarter, government bond issuance may enter a slack season, with net financing dropping to 1.7 trillion yuan [3].