每经AI快讯，11月24日，本周央行公开市场将有16760亿元逆回购到期，其中周一至周五逆回购分别到 期2830亿元、4075亿元、3105亿元、3000亿元、3750亿元。此外，周二将有9000亿元MLF到期，周五 将有3000亿元182天期买断式逆回购到期。 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the upcoming expiration of over 2 trillion yuan in reverse repos and the implications for the liquidity environment in November, suggesting that the overall funding situation will remain stable due to supportive monetary policies [3][4]. Group 1: Market Operations - The People's Bank of China (PBOC) will see 20,680 billion yuan in reverse repos maturing this week, with specific amounts maturing each day from November 3 to 7 [3][4]. - On November 6, the PBOC conducted a reverse repo operation of 928 billion yuan at a fixed rate of 1.4%, resulting in a net withdrawal of 2,498 billion yuan due to the larger amount of maturing repos [5][6]. - The PBOC is expected to continue using various policy tools to inject medium- to long-term liquidity into the market, including an anticipated 1 trillion yuan in reverse repos and 900 billion yuan in Medium-term Lending Facility (MLF) maturing this month [6][7]. Group 2: Liquidity Analysis - Analysts believe that the liquidity pressure in November will be manageable, with a decrease in tax payments and a significant reduction in the scale of maturing certificates of deposit [7][8]. - Historical data indicates that the relationship between MLF and reverse repos often shows a "one rises, the other falls" pattern, suggesting that the PBOC will balance liquidity through these instruments [9][10]. - The overnight Shibor rate was reported at 1.3130%, showing a slight decrease, while the 7-day Shibor was at 1.4210%, also down slightly, indicating stable funding rates despite the net withdrawals [6][10].

Group 1 - The People's Bank of China (PBOC) will conduct a 700 billion yuan reverse repurchase operation on November 5, 2025, to maintain ample liquidity in the banking system, with a term of 3 months (91 days) [2] - In November, there will be 700 billion yuan of 3-month reverse repos maturing, indicating that the operation is a continuation of the same amount [2] - An additional 300 billion yuan of 6-month reverse repos is expected to mature in November, with a high likelihood of another 6-month operation being conducted, suggesting a continuous injection of medium-term liquidity for the sixth consecutive month [2] Group 2 - The PBOC's net purchase of government bonds in October was 20 billion yuan, reflecting a cautious approach to avoid rapid declines in interest rates while stabilizing market expectations [3] - The upcoming maturity of 300 billion yuan in 6-month reverse repos and 900 billion yuan in Medium-term Lending Facility (MLF) suggests that the PBOC may increase net purchases of government bonds to offset the pressure from other monetary tools maturing [3] - The PBOC's policy stance is expected to remain stable yet slightly accommodative, utilizing both reverse repos and MLF to inject medium-term liquidity into the market [3] Group 3 - The introduction of the reverse repurchase agreement by the PBOC in October 2024 has become a key tool for medium to long-term liquidity supply, with net injections from reverse repos surpassing those from MLF this year [4] - The reverse repurchase agreement is primarily targeted at primary dealers in the open market and is conducted monthly with a maximum term of 1 year [4]

Core Viewpoint - The People's Bank of China (PBOC) is set to conduct a 700 billion yuan reverse repurchase operation on November 5, aimed at maintaining ample liquidity in the banking system, with a focus on medium-term liquidity support [1][2]. Group 1: Reverse Repo Operations - On November 5, the PBOC will conduct a 700 billion yuan buyout reverse repo operation with a term of 3 months (91 days) [1]. - In November, there will be 700 billion yuan of 3-month reverse repos maturing, indicating a continuation of the same amount of operations [1]. - An additional 300 billion yuan of 6-month reverse repos is expected to mature in November, with a high likelihood of another 6-month reverse repo operation being conducted [1][2]. Group 2: Liquidity Management - The PBOC's actions are in response to potential liquidity tightening due to various factors, including the issuance of 500 billion yuan in local government bonds and the expiration of 500 billion yuan in new policy financial instruments [2]. - The central bank aims to stabilize the funding environment and support government bond issuance while encouraging financial institutions to increase credit supply [2][3]. - The PBOC may also consider rolling over or slightly increasing the 900 billion yuan Medium-term Lending Facility (MLF) due in November [2]. Group 3: Bond Market and Economic Stability - The PBOC resumed net purchases of government bonds in October, indicating improved conditions in the bond market, with the 10-year government bond yield around 1.8% [3]. - The resumption of government bond trading is expected to enhance long-term liquidity support for the banking system and signal a commitment to stabilizing economic growth [3]. - The central bank has sufficient operational space to implement various monetary policy tools to support economic stability in the upcoming quarters [3].

Group 1: Report Overview - Report Name: Treasury Bond Futures Morning Report - November 3, 2025 [1] - Report Author: Dushufang from Dayue Futures Investment Consulting Department [1] Group 2: Market Conditions Fundamental Analysis - Bank - inter - bond market sentiment is warm, with long - term bonds performing better. The 30 - year main contract rose 0.42%. The 10 - month PMI data led to higher expectations of policy easing in Q4, boosting bond market buying. There is a certain safety cushion for entering the bond market now. The overnight repo rate of deposit - taking institutions rose slightly and stabilized around 1.31%. The yields of secondary perpetual bonds declined by more than 2bp [3]. - On October 31, the People's Bank of China conducted 355.1 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations at a fixed - rate and quantity - tender method, with an operating rate of 1.40%. After deducting the 168 billion yuan of reverse repurchases due on that day, the net investment was 187.1 billion yuan [3]. Basis Analysis - TS main basis is - 0.0487, indicating the spot is at a discount to the futures, which is bearish. TF main basis is - 0.06167, also bearish. T main basis is 0.1238, indicating the spot is at a premium to the futures, which is bullish. TL main basis is - 0.0061, bearish [3]. Inventory Analysis - The deliverable bond balances of TS, TF, and T main contracts are 1359.4 billion, 1493.5 billion, and 2359.9 billion respectively, considered neutral [4]. Disk Analysis - TS, TF, and T main contracts are all above the 20 - day moving average, and the 20 - day moving average is upward, which is bullish [4]. Main Position Analysis - TS main contract has a net long position with an increase in long positions. TF main contract also has a net long position with an increase in long positions. T main contract has a net long position with a decrease in long positions [5]. Expectation Analysis - The central bank has increased the volume of MLF renewals for 8 consecutive months. The October PMI data is below the boom - bust line. In September, CPI rose 0.1% month - on - month and decreased 0.3% year - on - year, while core CPI's year - on - year increase has expanded for 5 consecutive months. New social financing in September was slightly lower than the seasonal level. Affected by the "migration of RMB deposits", the M2 growth rate expanded. LPR remained unchanged as expected. The Fed cut interest rates by 25 basis points in the October FOMC meeting [5]. Group 3: Market Quotes - T2512.CFE: Price is 108.680, up 0.04%, trading volume is 66178, open interest is 242555, with a daily decrease of 2555, and the CTD bond is 220019.IB [8]. - TF2512.CFE: Price is 106.065, down 0.01%, trading volume is 51145, open interest is 149424, with a daily increase of 155, and the CTD bond is 250003.IB [8]. - TS2512.CFE: Price is 102.544, down 0.02%, trading volume is 30841, open interest is 72375, with a daily decrease of 1166, and the CTD bond is 250012.IB [8]. - TL2512.CFE: Price is 116.68, up 0.42%, trading volume is 103750, open interest is 142750, with a daily decrease of 1328, and the CTD bond is 210005.IB [8].

Group 1: Hot News - China's President Xi Jinping will visit South Korea from October 30 to November 1 to attend the 32nd APEC Economic Leaders' Meeting and conduct a state visit [2] - The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology is seeking opinions on iron - making and steel - making capacity replacement ratios, with a minimum of 1.5:1 in most cases and equal - volume replacement in three scenarios [2] - US CPI in September increased slightly less than expected, which may pave the way for the Fed to cut interest rates next week. The CPI rose 0.3% month - on - month in September and 3.0% year - on - year, while core CPI rose 0.2% month - on - month and 3.0% year - on - year [2] - China and the US held economic and trade consultations in Kuala Lumpur from October 25 - 26, and reached preliminary consensus on multiple important economic and trade issues [2] - The People's Bank of China will conduct 900 billion yuan of MLF operations on October 27, 2025 [2] Group 2: Key Focus - Key commodities to focus on include coking coal, coke, soybean meal, Shanghai copper, and Shanghai gold [3] Group 3: Holiday Overseas Market Performance - Commodity futures sector performance: Non - metallic building materials rose 2.95%, precious metals 30.89%, oilseeds and oils 9.67%, soft commodities 2.65%, non - ferrous metals 22.02%, coal - coking - steel - ore 13.28%, energy 3.00%, chemicals 10.74%, grains 1.13%, and agricultural and sideline products 3.66% [3] Group 4: Sector Position - The document shows the position changes of commodity futures sectors in the past five days, but specific data is presented graphically [4] Group 5: Performance of Major Asset Classes - Equity: Shanghai Composite Index rose 0.71% daily, 1.74% monthly, and 17.86% annually; other indices like S&P 500, Hang Seng Index also have corresponding performance data [5] - Fixed - income: 10 - year, 5 - year, and 2 - year treasury bond futures have different daily, monthly, and annual performance [5] - Commodity: CRB Commodity Index, WTI crude oil, London spot gold, LME copper, and Wind Commodity Index have their respective performance data [5] - Other: US Dollar Index and CBOE Volatility Index have corresponding performance [5] Group 6: Trends of Major Commodities - The document presents the trends of various commodities such as BDI, CRB spot index, WTI crude oil, London spot gold, LME copper, etc., through graphs [7]

Core Viewpoint - The People's Bank of China (PBOC) is conducting a 600 billion yuan reverse repurchase operation to stabilize liquidity, indicating a continued supportive monetary policy stance [1][2]. Group 1: Monetary Policy Actions - The PBOC will conduct a 600 billion yuan 6-month reverse repurchase operation on October 15, 2023, as part of its strategy to maintain market stability [1]. - This operation follows the maturity of 800 billion yuan in 3-month reverse repos on the same day, helping to smooth short-term funding fluctuations [1]. - In October, the total net injection of liquidity through reverse repos is approximately 400 billion yuan, which is an increase of 100 billion yuan compared to September [1]. Group 2: Market Conditions and Expectations - The increase in reverse repo operations is attributed to heightened funding demand due to concentrated government bond issuances and the introduction of new policy financial instruments [2]. - Analysts expect that the PBOC will continue to use both reverse repos and Medium-term Lending Facility (MLF) tools to inject liquidity into the market [2][3]. - There is a possibility of a reserve requirement ratio (RRR) cut in the fourth quarter, which would provide longer-term, lower-cost liquidity to the market [3]. Group 3: Future Outlook - The PBOC is likely to maintain a stable short-term liquidity environment, with interest rates expected to stabilize around 1.5% [3]. - The market is anticipated to experience limited liquidity gaps, with structural tensions being manageable [3].

Core Viewpoint - The People's Bank of China (PBOC) is set to conduct a 1.1 trillion yuan reverse repo operation on October 9, 2025, to maintain ample liquidity in the banking system, with a term of 3 months [1] Group 1: Reverse Repo Operations - In October, 800 billion yuan of 3-month reverse repos and 500 billion yuan of 6-month reverse repos are set to mature, leading to a net injection of 300 billion yuan after the PBOC's operation [4] - The PBOC's actions indicate a continuation of liquidity support, with expectations of further 6-month reverse repo operations to match the maturing amounts [4][5] - The central bank's strategy aims to counter potential liquidity tightening due to government bond issuances and seasonal cash demand increases [5] Group 2: Market Conditions and Expectations - The PBOC's liquidity measures are designed to stabilize the financial environment amid significant government bond issuances and a strong stock market [5] - Analysts predict that the central bank will utilize both reverse repos and Medium-term Lending Facility (MLF) tools to inject liquidity, although the scale of net liquidity injection may decrease from previous high levels [6] - There is an expectation of a new round of monetary easing, including a potential reserve requirement ratio (RRR) cut, to support economic growth and stabilize the real estate market [6]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Core View of the Report - In 2025, there are various economic indicators and market conditions to be concerned about, including M2, M2 - M1, CPI, PPI, PMI, etc. The performance of A - shares is also affected by multiple factors such as GDP growth and FOMC projections [10][23][68] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalog Section 2 - In 2025, on September 26th, regarding certain data related to 300, 50, 500, and 1000, there are growth rates of 15.60%, 8.45%, 22.41%, and 16.38% respectively [10] - In August 2025, there were MLF operations of 3000, and in September, there was a 25bp change [12] Section 3 3.1 - The ratio of a certain aspect is 60% - 65% in September. In August 2025, M2 was 8.8%, and M2 - M1 was 2.8%, compared to 6.6% in 2021 [23] - In September, there was a 25bp change, which affected GDP by 10 [29] - In August, a certain value was 3.4% with a 0.3 change, and CPI was 0.9% [32] 3.2 - In a certain situation, 15% and 70% are relevant to CPI and PPI in August [46] - A - shares are affected by factors such as VIX. On September 23rd and 26th, there are specific data changes related to 300 and 500 A - shares. GDP growth in September was 3.8%. FOMC projections from 2025 - 2027 show various data for real GDP change, unemployment rate, PCE inflation, core PCE inflation, and federal funds rate [65][68][72] Section 4 - From 2021, for a certain index related to 300, the range is 4250 - 4950 [73]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core View of the Report - The recent macro - environment is generally favorable. Overseas, the Sino - US economic and trade talks sent positive signals and the Fed's first rate cut this year is beneficial to A - shares. Domestically, poor economic data has led to stronger policy expectations, increasing the necessity of promoting consumption, stabilizing the real estate market, and expanding fiscal policies. The stock index trend continues to be bullish, but the policy aims for a "slow - bull" pattern to avoid rapid rallies, and it is recommended to adjust and go long, controlling positions before the holiday [5] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Market and Liquidity - **Interest Rates**: DROO1 closed at 1.47 with a 3.76bp increase, DR007 at 1.60 with a 1.53bp increase, GC001 at 1.50 with a - 14.50bp change, GC007 at 1.88 with a - 4.00bp change, SHBOR 3M at 1.57 with a 0.80bp increase, LPR 5 - year at 3.50 with no change, 1 - year treasury at 1.37 with no change, 5 - year treasury at 1.63 with a - 0.50bp change, 10 - year treasury at 1.81 with a - 1.00bp change, and 10 - year US treasury at 4.16 with a 4.00bp increase [3] - **Central Bank Operations**: The central bank conducted 4835 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations at an interest rate of 1.40% yesterday, with 4870 billion yuan of reverse repurchases maturing, resulting in a net withdrawal of 35 billion yuan. This week, there are 18268 billion yuan of reverse repurchases maturing from Monday to Friday (2800 billion, 2870 billion, 4185 billion, 4870 billion, 3543 billion respectively), and 3000 billion yuan of MLF maturing on September 25 [3] Stock Index Futures - **Stock Index Performance**: The CSI 300 rose 0.6% to 4593.5, the SSE 50 rose 0.45% to 2952.7, the CSI 500 rose 0.24% to 7341.3, and the CSI 1000 fell 0.37% to 7506.5. The trading volume of the two markets was 23711 billion yuan, an increase of 443 billion yuan from the previous day. Most industry sectors declined, with game, power equipment, energy metals, and wind power equipment sectors rising, while precious metals, shipping ports, jewelry, gas, engineering machinery, and auto - service sectors falling [4] - **Futures Contracts**: For IF, the current - month contract rose 0.6%, with a trading volume of 133482 (down 9.0%) and an open interest of 266373 (up 1.0%); for IH, the current - month contract rose 0.4%, with a trading volume of 51813 (down 16.6%) and an open interest of 94947 (down 3.4%); for IC, the current - month contract rose 0.2%, with a trading volume of 129665 (down 26.8%) and an open interest of 248859 (down 2.8%); for IM, the current - month contract fell 0.4%, with a trading volume of 212836 (down 27.5%) and an open interest of 353327 (down 3.3%) [4] - **Premium and Discount**: IF's current - month contract has a 0.00% premium, IH's current - month contract has a - 0.60% discount, IC's current - month contract has a 10.88% premium, and IM's current - month contract has a 13.68% premium [5]