Report Summary 1. Report's Industry Investment Rating - Not mentioned in the provided content 2. Core Viewpoints - The current domestic macro news remains calm, and the regulatory level focuses on "cooling down" the market to guide the stock index to show a "slow bull" pattern [6]. - The market trading volume stays above the high level of 2.5 trillion, indicating strong trading activity and liquidity - driven force [6]. - Before the Spring Festival, the domestic macro - level may be in a relatively calm period, and the market performance will be highly related to regulatory trends. It is expected that the short - term shock adjustment space of the stock index is limited, and it will mainly show a relatively strong shock before the festival [6]. 3. Summary by Relevant Categories Money Market - DR001 closed at 1.37 with a -0.02bp change, DR007 at 1.55 with a -3.50bp change, GC001 at 1.48 with a 12.00bp change, GC007 at 1.61 with a -1.00bp change, SHBOR 3M at 1.59 with a -0.21bp change, and LPR 5 - year at 3.50 with a 0.00bp change [3]. - The 1 - year treasury bond closed at 1.30 with a 0.25bp change, the 5 - year at 1.52 with a -1.25bp change, the 10 - year at 1.82 with a -1.50bp change, and the 10 - year US treasury bond at 4.24 with a 2.00bp change [3]. - The central bank conducted 377.5 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations yesterday at an operating rate of 1.40%, which was the same as before [3]. - This week, 1.181 trillion yuan of reverse repurchase in the central bank's open market will expire, and 200 billion yuan of MLF will expire on Monday [4]. Stock Index Futures Market - The closing prices and changes of major stock indexes: CSI 300 rose 0.26% to 4718, SSE 50 rose 0.27% to 3061, CSI 500 rose 0.61% to 8601, and CSI 1000 rose 0.21% to 8400 [5]. - The closing prices and changes of stock index futures contracts: IF current month rose 0.3% to 4728, IH current month rose 0.2% to 3066, IC current month rose 0.8% to 8623, IM current month rose 0.3% to 8407 [5]. - The trading volume and position changes of stock index futures contracts: IF trading volume was 142,902 with a 0.0% change and its position increased by 5.0%; IH trading volume decreased by 6.6% to 63,381 and its position increased by 3.4%; IC trading volume decreased by 19.3% to 170,659 and its position decreased by 0.3%; IM trading volume decreased by 26.0% to 194,080 and its position decreased by 3.9% [5]. - The trading volume of the Shanghai, Shenzhen, and Beijing stock markets reached 2.9926 trillion yuan, an increase of 70.9 billion yuan compared with the previous day. Most industry sectors declined, with precious metals, jewelry, mining, non - ferrous metals, small metals, and coal industries leading the gains, while photovoltaic equipment, medical devices, medical services, biological products, and aerospace sectors leading the losses [5]. Stock Index Futures Premium and Discount Situation - The premium and discount rates of IF contracts: -3.30% for the current month, -2.25% for the next month, 0.06% for the current quarter, and 1.59% for the next quarter [7]. - The premium and discount rates of IH contracts: -2.61% for the current month, -2.16% for the next month, -0.79% for the current quarter, and 0.75% for the next quarter [7]. - The premium and discount rates of IC contracts: -4.07% for the current month, -1.73% for the next month, 0.79% for the current quarter, and 2.41% for the next quarter [7]. - The premium and discount rates of IM contracts: -1.44% for the current month, 1.87% for the next month, 4.81% for the current quarter, and 6.06% for the next quarter [7].

炒股就看金麒麟分析师研报，权威，专业，及时，全面，助您挖掘潜力主题机会！ 【重磅新闻】 1月PMI数据将公布 1月31日，国家统计局将公布1月PMI数据。据国家统计局，去年12月PMI为50.1%，比上月上升0.9个百 分点，在连续8个月运行在50%以下后升至扩张区间。 美联储将公布利率决议 下周，美联储将公布利率决议。芝商所的"美联储观察"工具显示，市场认为美联储将在1月货币政策会 议上保持利率不变的概率已经达到95%。 中信证券认为，美国检方对鲍威尔的刑事调查无助于施压美联储激进降息，预计美联储今年1月暂停降 息。 央行公开市场将有11810亿元逆回购到期 Wind数据显示，本周央行公开市场开展了11810亿元逆回购操作，因本周有9515亿元逆回购到期，本周 实现净投放2295亿元。此外，1月23日，央行将以固定数量、利率招标、多重价位中标方式开展9000亿 元MLF操作，期限为1年期。 逾400亿元市值限售股解禁 Wind最新数据显示，下周（1月26日-1月30日）共有30家公司限售股陆续解禁，按1月23日收盘价计 算，解禁总市值逾400亿元。 从解禁市值来看，1月27日是解禁高峰期。按1月23日收盘价 ...

Group 1 - The People's Bank of China (PBOC) will conduct a 1.1 trillion yuan buyout reverse repurchase operation with a term of 3 months, indicating a continuation of liquidity support for the third consecutive month [1] - The 1.1 trillion yuan 3-month buyout reverse repurchase operation on January 8 corresponds to the same amount maturing on the same day, suggesting a rollover of liquidity [1] - Analysts expect the PBOC to conduct another 6-month buyout operation in January, as there is an additional 600 billion yuan maturing, which would further inject medium-term liquidity into the market [1] Group 2 - To support major projects and economic recovery, the new local government debt limit for 2026 has been set, indicating that government bonds will be issued in January [2] - The completion of 500 billion yuan in new policy financial tools in October 2025 is expected to drive rapid growth in loans in January, enhancing the "opening red" effect of credit [2] - The PBOC is likely to use both buyout reverse repos and Medium-term Lending Facility (MLF) tools in January to maintain a moderately loose monetary policy and ensure ample liquidity in the market [2]

Core Viewpoint - The latest C50 Wind Direction Index survey indicates that despite potential liquidity pressure in January due to government debt repayments, credit issuance, and cash withdrawals for the Spring Festival, interbank liquidity is expected to remain relatively loose under the central bank's support [1] Group 1: Liquidity Outlook - In a survey of 20 market institutions, 3 believe there is essentially no liquidity gap, while 15 think the overall funding pressure is manageable, estimating a liquidity gap of around 1 trillion yuan [1] - Only 2 institutions view the situation as neutrally tightening, predicting a liquidity gap exceeding 2 trillion yuan [1] Group 2: Policy Tools and Fiscal Focus - Looking ahead to 2026, multiple market participants anticipate that the first quarter will see a path of easing through reserve requirement ratio cuts and structural interest rate reductions [1] - The expectation is that the central bank will continue small net injections through reverse repos and MLF, with a shift in fiscal focus from total volume increases to structural efficiency enhancements [1] - The pace of central bank easing is likely to align with fiscal efforts [1]

Group 1 - The People's Bank of China (PBOC) will conduct a 1.1 trillion yuan reverse repurchase operation on January 8, 2026, to maintain ample liquidity in the banking system, marking the third consecutive month of the same amount of operation [1] - The 1.1 trillion yuan reverse repurchase operation on January 8 corresponds to the maturity of the same amount of 3-month reverse repos, indicating a continuation of liquidity support [1] - Analysts suggest that the lack of an increase in the 3-month reverse repurchase operation may relate to the funding needs of financial institutions, and does not indicate a reduction in liquidity provision by the PBOC [1] Group 2 - The early issuance of the 2026 local government debt limit aims to support funding needs for major projects and bolster economic recovery, leading to a significant scale of government bond issuance in January [2] - The completion of 500 billion yuan in new policy financial tools in October 2025 is expected to drive rapid growth in loans in January, enhancing the "opening red" effect of credit [2] - The PBOC is likely to inject medium-term liquidity through reverse repos to counter potential tightening of liquidity, while also signaling continued supportive monetary policy [2]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core Viewpoints - A-share main indices closed generally higher, with small and medium-cap stocks outperforming large-cap blue chips. The Shanghai Composite Index rose 0.53%, the Shenzhen Component Index rose 0.88%, and the ChiNext Index rose 0.77%. The trading volume in the Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets declined slightly, with over 4,100 stocks rising. Industry sectors generally rose, with national defense and military industry and electronics sectors strengthening significantly, while the agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry, and fishery sectors led the decline [2]. - Trump's statement strengthened market expectations that the new Fed chair will cut interest rates. Domestically, the economic fundamentals in November were weak, with the PPI - CPI gap widening for two consecutive months, and deflation pressure still existing. The December LPR quote remained unchanged, which was in line with market expectations [2]. - The weakening of the economic indicators in November put pressure on the upside of A-shares. However, the positive tone of the Politburo meeting and the Central Economic Work Conference injected confidence into the market, providing strong support for the bottom of A-shares. This week, the market is in a macro - data vacuum period, and the impact of the external environment on A-shares has increased. The recent expectation of the dovish stance of the new Fed chair has driven the US dollar weaker, and the strengthening of the RMB exchange rate supports the expectation of loose monetary policy in January 2026 [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - **Futures Contract Prices**: The prices of IF, IH, IC, and IM main and sub - main contracts all increased. For example, the IF main contract (2603) rose 25.2 to 4595.0, and the IC main contract (2603) rose 111.0 to 7240.4 [2]. - **Futures Spreads**: Various spreads such as IF - IH, IC - IF, etc. also showed an upward trend. For example, the IF - IH current - month contract spread increased by 17.8 [2]. - **Futures Seasonal Spreads**: The spreads between current - season and current - month, and next - season and current - month contracts of IF, IH, IC, and IM all increased [2]. - **Futures Net Positions**: The net positions of the top 20 in IF, IH, IC, and IM all increased. For example, the IF top 20 net positions increased by 1739.0 to - 27,736.00 [2]. 3.2 Spot Market - **Spot Index Prices**: The Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 Index rose 13.3 to 4634.06, the Shanghai 50 Index fell 2.3 to 3025.2, the CSI 500 Index rose 95.3 to 7352.0, and the CSI 1000 Index rose 114.0 to 7506.4 [2]. - **Futures - Spot Basis**: The basis of IF, IH, IC, and IM main contracts all increased. For example, the IF main contract basis increased by 10.3 to - 39.1 [2]. 3.3 Market Sentiment - **Trading Volume and Balance**: The A - share trading volume decreased by 241.31 billion yuan to 18,972.42 billion yuan, while the margin trading balance increased by 149.23 billion yuan to 25,315.63 billion yuan. The northbound trading volume decreased by 17.23 billion yuan to 1804.38 billion yuan [2]. - **Other Indicators**: The proportion of rising stocks increased by 47.95% to 75.59%, the Shibor decreased by 0.005% to 1.267%, the closing price of the IO at - the - money call option increased by 12.00 to 56.60, and the implied volatility increased. The closing price of the IO at - the - money put option decreased by 10.40 to 83.20, and the implied volatility increased [2]. 3.4 Industry News - **LPR Announcement**: On December 22, the 1 - year LPR was 3.0% (the same as last time), and the 5 - year - plus LPR was 3.5% (the same as last time) [2]. - **Trump's Statement**: Trump hopes that the next Fed chair will cut interest rates when the economy and the market are performing well, rather than "strangling the market" due to inflation concerns [2]. 3.5 Key Data to Watch - December 27, 9:30: China's industrial enterprise profits above designated size for November [3]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that the market is not likely to experience a significant downturn due to strong support from continuous ETF buying behavior [1] - As of December 15, the total ETF shares reached 3.3 trillion, with a total scale of 5.78 trillion yuan, an increase of 2 trillion yuan since the beginning of the year, indicating substantial inflow of funds into the market [1] - The stability of the LPR, with a one-year rate at 3.0% and a five-year rate at 3.56%, has positively impacted economic growth and market expectations, contributing to market stability [1] Group 2 - The market is seeing continuous buying and selling of the CSI 500 ETF, which has reached a scale of 245.935 billion yuan, with a net inflow of 32.7 billion yuan last week, accounting for 70% of the net inflow of stock ETFs [2] - Major ETFs from companies like Huaxia, Guotai, and E Fund have scales exceeding 20 billion yuan, indicating ongoing capital inflow rather than outflow [2] - The analysis suggests that the market is likely to continue oscillating at its current position and may gradually break upwards, with a focus on the performance around the 3900-point mark [2]

Group 1: China Economic Indicators - The People's Bank of China announced the Loan Prime Rate (LPR) for December, with the 1-year LPR remaining at 3.00% and the 5-year LPR at 3.50%, both unchanged from previous values [1] - On December 24, the National Bureau of Statistics will release important production material market prices, covering 50 products across nine categories, including metals and agricultural products [6] - The Central Bank is expected to roll over 300 billion yuan in Medium-term Lending Facility (MLF) on December 25, continuing a trend of increasing MLF for nine consecutive months [8] - The National Bureau of Statistics will publish industrial enterprise profit data for January to November, with profits for the first ten months down by 5.5% year-on-year, but showing a 1.9% increase in October [9] Group 2: US Economic Indicators - The US Commerce Department will release the final GDP value for Q3 2025, with an expected annualized growth rate of 3.2% and a price index increase of 2.7% [2] - The initial value of US durable goods orders for November is expected to show a decline of 1.4%, down from a previous increase of 0.5% [3] - The Federal Reserve will announce the industrial production figures for November, with expectations of a 0.1% month-on-month change, consistent with the previous month [4] - The Conference Board's consumer confidence index for December is anticipated to rise to 91.7 from 88.7, which could positively impact industrial commodity prices [5] - The US Labor Department will report initial jobless claims for the week ending December 20, with expectations of a decrease to 215,000 from 224,000 [7]

Core Viewpoint - The People's Bank of China (PBOC) announced a 1 trillion yuan reverse repo operation to maintain liquidity in the banking system, indicating a continuation of its monetary policy strategy [1] Group 1: Reverse Repo Operations - On December 5, 2025, the PBOC will conduct a 1 trillion yuan reverse repo operation with a term of 3 months (91 days) using a fixed quantity and multi-price bidding method [1] - This operation is a continuation of the 1 trillion yuan 3-month reverse repo that will mature in December, marking the second consecutive month of equal-scale operations [1] - Analysts suggest that the lack of an increase in the 3-month reverse repo may relate to the funding needs of financial institutions, not indicating a reduction in liquidity provision [1] Group 2: Future Expectations - In December, an additional 400 billion yuan 6-month reverse repo is expected, with a high likelihood of an increased scale operation [1] - The total liquidity injection from both the 3-month and 6-month reverse repos in December will mark the seventh consecutive month of mid-term liquidity support to the market [1] - The PBOC is also expected to utilize the Medium-term Lending Facility (MLF) alongside reverse repos to inject liquidity, although the scale of liquidity injection may decrease from the previous high level of 600 billion yuan per month [1]

Group 1 - The central bank will have a total of 16,760 billion yuan in reverse repos maturing this week [1] - The reverse repos maturing from Monday to Friday are 2,830 billion yuan, 4,075 billion yuan, 3,105 billion yuan, 3,000 billion yuan, and 3,750 billion yuan respectively [1] - On Tuesday, there will be 9,000 billion yuan of Medium-term Lending Facility (MLF) maturing, and on Friday, 3,000 billion yuan of 182-day buyout reverse repos will mature [1]