Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content Group 2: Core View of the Report - The short - term view of IF, IH, IC, and IM is weak, the medium - term view is oscillatory, and the reference view is range - bound. It is expected that the stock index will mainly fluctuate in a range in the short term [5]. Group 3: Summary According to the Catalog 1. Variety View Reference - Financial Futures Stock Index Sector - For IH2606, the short - term view is oscillatory, the medium - term view is oscillatory, the intraday view is weak, and the reference view is range - bound. The core logic is the contrast between continuous policy benefits and the Middle East geopolitical crisis [1]. 2. Main Variety Price Market Driving Logic - Financial Futures Stock Index Sector - Last Friday, each stock index rebounded oscillatory. The Middle East geopolitical situation is the main factor affecting the short - term trend of the stock index. The information released by the US and Iran on the US - Iran peace talks has a huge difference, with high uncertainty in reaching an agreement. Although the Middle East geopolitical risk has cooled to some extent, investors' risk preference is cautious. The trading volume of the Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets has continued to shrink. From the perspective of the stock market's own fundamentals, domestic policies are continuously beneficial to the economic fundamentals, and there is still support for the stock index in the medium and long term [5].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core Viewpoints - For IH2606, in the short - term and medium - term, it is expected to be in a state of oscillation, and intraday it is expected to be on the stronger side, with an overall view of range - bound oscillation due to continuous policy support stabilizing the economic fundamentals [1]. - For IF, IH, IC, and IM, the intraday view is on the stronger side, the medium - term view is oscillation, and the overall reference view is range - bound oscillation. Although the risk of long - term Middle East geopolitical crisis may limit stock prices, the market has basically digested this risk. Policy support is the main logic for the long - term upward movement of the stock index. In the short - term, the index will be mainly in range - bound consolidation [5]. 3. Summary by Related Aspects 3.1 Variety Viewpoint Reference - Financial Futures Stock Index Sector | Variety | Short - term | Medium - term | Intraday | Viewpoint Reference | Core Logic | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | IH2606 | Oscillation | Oscillation | Stronger | Range - bound oscillation | Policy support stabilizes economic fundamentals [1] | 3.2 Main Variety Price Market Driving Logic - Financial Futures Stock Index Sector - **Core Logic**: Last Friday, stock indexes oscillated and slightly pulled back. The long - term risk of the Middle East geopolitical crisis has increased, which may lead to global stagflation and limit central bank's monetary easing, thus suppressing stock prices. However, the market has basically digested this risk, and the marginal impact is weakening. Policy support is the main driver for the long - term upward movement of the stock index. In the short - term, the index will be in range - bound consolidation, with attention on the development of the US - Iran situation, policy implementation effect, and listed company's financial report disclosure [5].

Core Viewpoint - The liquidity environment in March is expected to remain stable and relatively loose, despite short-term disturbances following the Spring Festival holiday [1][4]. Group 1: Market Conditions Post-Festival - After the Spring Festival, the market is facing multiple pressures, including over 2.2 trillion yuan in reverse repos and 300 billion yuan in MLF maturing [2][3]. - The People's Bank of China (PBOC) has been actively conducting reverse repos and MLF operations to mitigate the impact of these maturities, maintaining a stable liquidity environment [3][5]. - The average R001 rate remained around 1.4%, indicating a low level of funding costs in the lead-up to the holiday [2]. Group 2: Future Liquidity Outlook - Analysts predict that as the disturbances from the holiday fade, the liquidity situation will naturally improve, with a continued loose stance expected in March [4][5]. - Historical data shows that after the Spring Festival, the liquidity typically rebounds, with cash withdrawn by residents returning to the banking system [4]. - The issuance pace of government bonds is expected to slow down, further supporting a balanced and loose liquidity state in March [5].

Group 1 - The People's Bank of China (PBOC) conducted a 750 billion yuan reverse repurchase operation with a rate of 1.40%, maintaining the previous level, resulting in a net withdrawal of 755 billion yuan due to 1,505 billion yuan of reverse repos maturing on the same day [1] - In the previous week, the PBOC's reverse repos totaled a net injection of 5,805 billion yuan, with 2,000 billion yuan of Medium-term Lending Facility (MLF) maturing on Monday and 1,500 billion yuan of 1-month treasury cash deposits conducted by the Ministry of Finance on Wednesday [1] - The overall overnight funding rate increased compared to December 2022, with R001 and DR001 average monthly rates rising by 4.7 and 5.5 basis points to 1.41% and 1.34%, respectively [1] Group 2 - According to analysts, the stability in the funding environment in January was supported by the PBOC's relatively generous liquidity provision, releasing a total of 1 trillion yuan in medium- and long-term funds, equivalent to a 0.5 percentage point reserve requirement cut [2] - The upcoming week will see a total of 17,615 billion yuan in 7-day reverse repos maturing, with an expected increase in cash withdrawal demand as the Spring Festival approaches [2] - Analysts expect the PBOC to maintain a loose monetary policy, potentially using various tools such as 7-day or 14-day reverse repos to stabilize liquidity before and after the Spring Festival [3] Group 3 - The PBOC's clear supportive stance on liquidity is expected to continue, with anticipated liquidity injections of around 30,000 to 35,000 billion yuan before the Spring Festival, aiming to ensure a stable funding environment [3] - The issuance of government bonds is expected to remain high to meet funding needs for key projects, which may introduce additional liquidity pressures [3] - Despite potential short-term tightening, the overall funding environment is expected to remain stable, with reduced volatility in both DR007 and DR001 compared to previous years [3]

Liquidity Overview - The average daily net lending by banks reached a historical high of 5.45 trillion yuan from December 22-26, up from 4.90 trillion yuan the previous week[2] - The overnight interest rate R001 remained stable around 1.35%, while DR001 fell to 1.26%[1] - The 7-day funding rate DR007 increased to 1.52%, reflecting a rise of 14 basis points compared to previous years[1] Market Trends - The significant increase in bank lending at year-end is attributed to seasonal patterns, with lending typically exceeding 5 trillion yuan before the year-end[2] - The net financing from government bonds for December 29-31 is expected to be 138 billion yuan, significantly lower than the previous week's 3,667 billion yuan[6] - The issuance of 1-month bills dropped to a near-zero interest rate of 0.01%, while 3-month and 6-month rates rose to 0.65% and 1.05%, respectively[5] Future Outlook - The liquidity cost during the year-end period is expected to remain manageable, with potential peaks around 1.90% for 7-day funds[3] - The upcoming week (December 29-31) will see a net withdrawal of 1,526 billion yuan from reverse repos, indicating low pressure on liquidity[4] - The total maturity of interbank certificates of deposit is projected to decrease to 2,791 billion yuan, down from 8,686 billion yuan the previous week[7]

Core Viewpoint - The People's Bank of China (PBOC) is maintaining a moderately loose monetary policy, with recent operations indicating a net liquidity injection to support the economy amid tax payment periods and overall stable funding conditions [1][2][4]. Group 1: Monetary Policy Operations - On December 15, the PBOC conducted a 130.9 billion yuan reverse repurchase operation with a rate of 1.40%, resulting in a net injection of 8.6 billion yuan after 122.3 billion yuan of reverse repos matured [1]. - The upcoming week (December 15-19) will see a slight increase in the maturity scale of 7-day reverse repos to 668.5 billion yuan, with government debt net payment expected to decrease to -3.9 billion yuan [2]. - The PBOC plans to conduct a 6-month buyout reverse repo of 600 billion yuan on December 15, resulting in a net injection of 200 billion yuan, which is expected to alleviate funding pressure during the tax payment period [2]. Group 2: Interest Rate Trends - The overnight rate (R001) has gradually declined from 1.37% to 1.27%, breaking the previous year's lower limit of 1.30% [1]. - The 7-day rate (R007) experienced fluctuations, reaching a low of 1.49% mid-week before rising to 1.51% by Friday, influenced by the approaching tax payment period [1][2]. Group 3: Economic Outlook and Policy Adjustments - The Central Economic Work Conference emphasized the continuation of a moderately loose monetary policy, highlighting the need for flexible and efficient use of various policy tools, including interest rate cuts and reserve requirement ratio adjustments [3][4]. - Analysts suggest that the monetary policy will remain supportive, with an emphasis on maintaining liquidity and optimizing the allocation of funds to enhance economic growth [4]. - Structural policy tools, such as re-loans for technological innovation and consumption services, will continue to play a significant role in supporting key sectors and addressing weaknesses in the economy [4].

Group 1: Report's Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided Group 2: Core View of the Report - Today, Treasury bond futures rebounded with fluctuations. The latest inflation data showed a slight recovery but remained weak. The liquidity of the capital market was loose. The Fed's expected interest rate cut in December increased the expectation of a looser monetary policy. Since the beginning of this week, Treasury bond futures have trended stronger with fluctuations. In the medium to long term, the monetary policy environment tends to be loose, providing strong support for Treasury bond futures. However, in the short term, the necessity of an interest rate cut is insufficient, and the concentrated supply of Treasury bonds in the first quarter of next year will bring some pressure. Therefore, the upward momentum of Treasury bond futures is limited in the short term. Overall, Treasury bond futures face both upward pressure and downward support, and will mainly fluctuate in the short term [3] Group 3: Summary According to the Directory Industry News and Related Charts - On December 11, the central bank announced a 118.6 billion yuan reverse repurchase operation at a fixed - rate and quantity - tendered method with a winning bid rate of 1.4%. There were 180.8 billion yuan of reverse repurchases maturing in the open market today, resulting in a net withdrawal of 62.2 billion yuan [5] Related Charts - The report includes charts of TL2603, T2603, TF2603, TS2603 trends, the Treasury bond yield - to - maturity curve, and central bank open market operations, with data sources from iFinD and Baocheng Futures Research Institute [6][8][11]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report Core Viewpoint - From November 24 - 28, 2025, the central bank had a net 7 - day reverse repurchase fund withdrawal, a treasury cash fixed - deposit injection of 12 billion yuan, and an MLF operation of 100 billion yuan. From November 24 - 30, 2025, the net government bond payment scale decreased compared to the previous week, most inter - bank certificate of deposit (NCD) maturity yields rose slightly, and the average leverage ratio of the inter - bank bond market increased. On November 28, 2025, the median durations of medium - long - term and short - term interest - style pure bond funds decreased week - on - week by 0.55 years and 0.08 years respectively [2]. Summary by Directory 1. Funds - In November 2025, the net MLF injection was 10 billion yuan. From November 24 - 28, the central bank's 7 - day reverse repurchase had a net withdrawal of 16.42 billion yuan, treasury cash fixed - deposit injection was 12 billion yuan, and MLF had a net injection of 10 billion yuan. From December 1 - 5, 2025, 151.18 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchases will mature. In total, the net injection of outright reverse repurchases in November was 50 billion yuan, and the net MLF injection was 10 billion yuan, with the combined net injection scale remaining stable month - on - month. In December, the maturity scales of 3M and 6M outright reverse repurchases are 100 billion yuan and 40 billion yuan respectively, and 30 billion yuan of MLF will mature [6]. - The overall funds situation was loose. From November 24 - 28, 2025, the average values of DR001 and R001 were 1.31% and 1.39% respectively, down 11.7 and 10.1 basis points compared to November 17 - 21; the average values of DR007 and R007 were 1.46% and 1.53% respectively, down 3.5 basis points and up 1.0 basis point compared to November 17 - 21. On the 28th, the weighted average rate of DR001 was closer to 1.30% and broke through 1.30% intraday [7]. - The net government bond financing scale decreased. From November 24 - 30, 2025, the net government bond payment scale was about 32.89 billion yuan, about 8.17 billion yuan less than November 17 - 23, including about 3.91 billion yuan of net treasury bond financing and about 28.98 billion yuan of net local government bond financing. From December 1 - 7, 2025, the expected net government bond payment scale is 8.66 billion yuan, including about - 5 billion yuan of net treasury bond financing and about 13.66 billion yuan of net local government bond financing [7]. 2. Inter - bank Certificates of Deposit (NCDs) - Most NCD maturity yields rose slightly. As of November 28, 2025, the 1M and 3M NCD maturity yields were 1.4450% and 1.5750% respectively, down 4.5 basis points and up 0.2 basis points compared to November 21; the 1Y NCD maturity yield was 1.6400%, up 0.5 basis points compared to November 21 [8]. - The net NCD financing amount remained negative. From November 24 - 30, 2025, the net NCD financing amount was about - 24.25 billion yuan, compared to about - 37.4 billion yuan from November 17 - 23. From December 1 - 7, 2025, the expected NCD maturity repayment amount is 44.88 billion yuan, with a significantly reduced roll - over pressure compared to the previous week. The NCD maturity scale in December is about 3.7 trillion yuan, which is relatively high [8]. 3. Institutional Behavior - The average leverage ratio of the inter - bank bond market increased. From November 24 - 28, 2025, the average calculated leverage ratio of the inter - bank bond market was 107.32%, compared to 107.15% from November 17 - 21. On November 28 and 21, the calculated leverage ratios were about 107.02% and 107.31% respectively [9]. - Based on the calculation results, the durations of medium - long - term and short - term interest - style pure bond funds decreased marginally. On November 28, 2025, the median duration (MA5) of medium - long - term interest - style pure bond funds was 3.68 years, down 0.55 years week - on - week, at the 60.3% quantile since early 2022; the median duration (MA5) of short - term interest - style pure bond funds was 1.56 years, down 0.08 years week - on - week, at the 23.2% quantile since early 2022 [9].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the content. 2. Core View of the Report From November 10 - 14, 2025, the central bank conducted net injections through short - term reverse repurchases. On November 17, an 800 - billion - yuan 6 - month买断式 reverse repurchase operation was carried out, with a net injection of 500 billion yuan for the month. From November 10 - 16, the net payment scale of government bonds increased, the yield to maturity of inter - bank certificates of deposit fluctuated within a narrow range, and the average leverage ratio of the inter - bank bond market decreased slightly. From November 17 - 23, the expected net payment of government bonds is 410.57 billion yuan, and the maturity scale of inter - bank certificates of deposit is about 907 billion yuan. On November 14, the median durations of medium - long - term and short - term interest - rate style pure bond funds decreased week - on - week by 0.55 years and 0.85 years respectively [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Funds - **Fund Injections**: From November 10 - 14, the central bank's 7 - day reverse repurchase had a net injection of 62.62 billion yuan. On November 17, an 800 - billion - yuan 6 - month买断式 reverse repurchase was conducted, with a net injection of 500 billion yuan for the month. The 12 - billion - yuan treasury cash fixed - term deposit will mature on November 20. The central bank's injection pattern is stable, which helps stabilize the market's expectation of the funds [6]. - **Fund Fluctuations and Interest Rate Changes**: From November 10 - 14, the average values of DR001 and R001 were 1.42% and 1.47% respectively, up 10.3 and 10.0 basis points compared to November 3 - 7. The average values of DR007 and R007 were 1.49% and 1.50% respectively, up 6.5 and 4.1 basis points compared to November 3 - 7. Tax payment and large - scale net payment of government bonds will affect liquidity [7]. - **Government Bond Net Payment**: From November 10 - 16, the net payment of government bonds was about 424.8 billion yuan, an increase of about 388 billion yuan compared to November 3 - 9. From November 17 - 23, the expected net payment is 410.57 billion yuan [2][7]. 3.2 Inter - bank Certificates of Deposit - **Yield Fluctuations**: As of November 14, 2025, the yields to maturity of 1 - month and 3 - month inter - bank certificates of deposit were 1.4950% and 1.5750% respectively, up 2.0 and 1.5 basis points compared to November 7. The yield to maturity of 1 - year inter - bank certificates of deposit was 1.6350%, up 0.5 basis points compared to November 7 [8]. - **Net Financing and Maturity Pressure**: From November 10 - 16, the net financing of inter - bank certificates of deposit was about - 4.16 billion yuan. From November 17 - 23, the expected maturity repayment is 907 billion yuan, with increased pressure on renewal [8]. 3.3 Institutional Behavior - **Leverage Ratio of the Inter - bank Bond Market**: From November 10 - 14, the average leverage ratio of the inter - bank bond market was 107.26%, lower than the 107.73% in the period from November 3 - 7 [9]. - **Duration Changes of Bond Funds**: On November 14, the median duration (MA5) of medium - long - term interest - rate style pure bond funds was 4.83 years, down 0.55 years week - on - week, at the 90.8% quantile since early 2022. The median duration (MA5) of short - term interest - rate style pure bond funds was 1.83 years, down 0.85 years week - on - week, at the 54.8% quantile since early 2022 [9].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - From November 3 - 7, 2025, the central bank conducted a net withdrawal of funds through short - term reverse repurchases and carried out a 700 billion yuan 3M outright reverse repurchase on November 5. From November 3 - 9, 2025, the net payment scale of government bonds decreased, the 1M maturity yield of inter - bank certificates of deposit (NCDs) increased while the 3M - 1Y yields were relatively stable, and the average leverage ratio of the inter - bank bond market slightly increased. From November 10 - 16, 2025, the expected net payment of government bonds is 369.2 billion yuan, and the maturity scale of NCDs is about 751.8 billion yuan. On November 7, 2025, the median durations of medium - long - term and short - term interest - style pure bond funds increased by 0.06 years and 0.09 years respectively on a weekly basis [2]. Summary by Directory 1. Funding Situation - **Central Bank Operations**: From November 3 - 7, 2025, the central bank's 7 - day reverse repurchase had a net withdrawal of 157.22 billion yuan. On November 5, a 700 billion yuan 3M outright reverse repurchase was carried out, and the 3M outright reverse repurchase was renewed at the same amount this month [6]. - **Funding Rates**: From November 3 - 7, 2025, the average values of DR001 and R001 were 1.32% and 1.37% respectively, down 7.3 and 7.8 basis points compared to October 27 - 31. The average values of DR007 and R007 were 1.42% and 1.46% respectively, down 10.4 and 11.5 basis points compared to October 27 - 31. From November 3 - 6, the weighted average rate of DR001 was stable around 1.31%, and it increased marginally on November 7, possibly due to the 700 billion yuan outright reverse repurchase maturing on November 10 [7]. - **Government Bond Net Payment**: From November 3 - 9, 2025, the net payment scale of government bonds was about 36.8 billion yuan, about 96.9 billion yuan less than that from October 27 - November 2. The net financing of treasury bonds was about 24.9 billion yuan, and that of local government bonds was about 11.9 billion yuan. From November 10 - 16, 2025, the expected net payment of government bonds is 369.2 billion yuan, with treasury bond net financing of about 195.9 billion yuan and local government bond net financing of about 173.3 billion yuan [7]. 2. Inter - bank Certificates of Deposit - **Maturity Yields**: As of November 7, 2025, the 1M and 3M maturity yields of NCDs were 1.4750% and 1.5600% respectively, up 7.0 and 0.5 basis points compared to October 31. The 1Y maturity yield was 1.6300%, up 0.2 basis points compared to October 31 [8]. - **Net Financing**: From November 3 - 9, 2025, the net financing of NCDs was about 151 billion yuan. From November 10 - 16, 2025, the expected maturity repayment of NCDs is 751.8 billion yuan, and the maturity renewal pressure has increased [8]. 3. Institutional Behavior - **Inter - bank Bond Market Leverage Ratio**: From November 3 - 7, 2025, the average calculated leverage ratio of the inter - bank bond market was 107.73%, compared with 107.36% from October 27 - 31 [9]. - **Bond Fund Durations**: On November 7, 2025, the median duration (MA5) of medium - long - term interest - style pure bond funds was 5.38 years, up 0.06 years on a weekly basis, at the 96.5% quantile since early 2022. The median duration (MA5) of short - term interest - style pure bond funds was 2.69 years, up 0.09 years on a weekly basis, at the 99.5% quantile since early 2022 [9].