Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core Viewpoints - This week, the high - sulfur cracking spread fluctuated and declined, the near - month spread decreased, and the EW weakened rapidly. The 380 8 - 9 month spread dropped to $4.25, the basis fluctuated at a low level, the FU07 internal - external spread oscillated around - $5, and the 09 spread oscillated around + $10. With a large amount of near - month delivery goods, the market maintained a loose pattern [5]. - The low - sulfur cracking spread rebounded, the month spread dropped to around $5, the basis weakened slightly and oscillated at $6. The LU internal - external spread remained strong, with the 09 spread oscillating around $17 [7]. - This week, Singapore's on - shore inventory increased, floating storage oscillated at a high level, low - sulfur floating storage decreased slightly. ARA's on - shore inventory increased slightly, but the inventory was still at the lowest level in the same period of history, floating storage inventory oscillated, and low - sulfur floating storage increased. Fujairah's on - shore inventory increased significantly, and floating storage decreased slightly [7]. - This week, geopolitical risks were resolved. Recently, fuel oil exports from Iran and Iraq remained at a high level, and Egypt's net imports reached a new high. The high - sulfur fundamentals were in an oscillating pattern. Currently, high - sulfur is in the peak power - generation season, the near - month FU internal - external spread is under pressure, the valuation is low, and the game continues. In the future, pay attention to the shipping situation in the Middle East. The LU internal - external spread is running at a high level, and pay attention to the domestic production situation [7]. 3. Summary by Relevant Data Rotterdam Fuel Oil Swap Data | Product | 2025/06/24 | 2025/06/30 | Change | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Rotterdam 3.5% HSF O Swap M1 | 413.51 | 405.86 | - 6.13 | | Rotterdam 0.5% VLS FO Swap M1 | 466.22 | 473.81 | - 0.73 | | Rotterdam HSFO - Brent M1 | - 1.97 | - 2.53 | - 0.27 | | Rotterdam 10ppm Gasoil Swap M1 | 642.12 | 645.87 | 1.65 | | Rotterdam VLSFO - Gasoil M1 | - 175.90 | - 172.06 | - 2.38 | | LGO - Brent M1 | 21.22 | 21.11 | 0.36 | | Rotterdam VLSFO - HSFO M1 | 52.71 | 67.95 | 5.40 | [3] Singapore Fuel Oil Swap Data | Product | 2025/06/24 | 2025/06/30 | Change | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Singapore 380cst M1 | 427.90 | 417.96 | 2.05 | | Singapore 180cst M1 | 436.97 | 425.74 | 2.21 | | Singapore VLSFO M1 | 501.16 | 500.47 | 1.98 | | Singapore Gasoil M1 | 85.76 | 86.17 | - 0.80 | | Singapore 380cst - Brent M1 | - 0.54 | - 1.21 | 0.44 | | Singapore VLSFO - Gasoil M1 | - 133.46 | - 137.19 | 7.90 | [3] Singapore Fuel Oil Spot Data | Product | 2025/06/24 | 2025/06/30 | Change | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | FOB 380cst | 431.62 | 418.52 | 1.75 | | FOB VLSFO | 508.57 | 505.08 | 1.06 | | 380 Basis | 2.75 | 0.85 | - 0.15 | | High - sulfur Internal - External Spread | 9.8 | 9.6 | - 1.6 | | Low - sulfur Internal - External Spread | 21.1 | 14.6 | - 2.4 | [4] Domestic FU Data | Product | 2025/06/24 | 2025/06/30 | Change | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | FU 01 | 2895 | 2854 | - 10 | | FU 05 | 2850 | 2801 | - 10 | | FU 09 | 3065 | 2990 | - 12 | | FU 01 - 05 | 45 | 53 | 0 | | FU 05 - 09 | - 215 | - 189 | 2 | | FU 09 - 01 | 170 | 136 | - 2 | [4] Domestic LU Data | Product | 2025/06/24 | 2025/06/30 | Change | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | LU 01 | 3500 | 3507 | - 21 | | LU 05 | 3421 | 3444 | 10 | | LU 09 | 3629 | 3581 | - 19 | | LU 01 - 05 | 79 | 63 | - 31 | | LU 05 - 09 | - 208 | - 137 | 29 | | LU 09 - 01 | 129 | 74 | 2 | [5]

| 『安期货 | | --- | | NGAN FUTURES | | 燃料油早报 | | | --- | --- | | | 研究中心能化团队 2025/06/16 | | 燃 料 油 | | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 日期 | 鹿特丹3.5% HSF | 鹿特丹0.5% VLS | 鹿特丹HSFO-Br | 鹿特丹10ppm G | 鹿特丹VLSFO-G | LGO-Brent M1 | 鹿特丹VLSFO-H | | | O掉期 M1 | FO掉期 M1 | ent M1 | asoil掉期 M1 | O M1 | | SFO M1 | | 2025/06/09 | 402.51 | 452.99 | -2.76 | 609.35 | -156.36 | 16.75 | 50.48 | | 2025/06/10 | 407.23 | 457.96 | -2.96 | 616.60 | -158.64 | 17.90 | 50.73 | | 2025/06/11 | 409.51 | 461.45 | -2 ...

国泰君安期货·能源化工 燃料油、低硫燃料油周度报告 国泰君安期货研究所·梁可方 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0019111 日期：2025年6月15日 Guotai Junan Futures all rights reserved, please do not reprint | 01 | CONTENTS 02 | 03 | 04 | 05 | 06 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 综述 | 供应 | 需求 | 库存 | 价格及价差 | 进出口 | | | 炼厂开工 | 国内外燃料油需求数据 | 全球燃料油现货库存 | 亚太区域现货FOB价格 | 国内燃料油进出口数据 | | | 全球炼厂检修 | | | 欧洲区域现货FOB价格 | 全球高硫燃料油进出口数据 | | | 国内炼厂产量与商品量 | | | 美国地区燃料油现货价格 | 全球低硫燃料油进出口数据 | | | | | | 纸货与衍生品价格 燃料油现货价差 | | | | | | | 全球燃料油裂解价差 | | | | | | | 全球燃料油纸货月差 | | Special report on Guot ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided 2. Core Viewpoints - This week, the high - sulfur crack spread declined, the 380 - month spread declined, and the basis strengthened. The low - sulfur crack spread weakened in a volatile manner, the near - end month spread weakened slightly, and the basis weakened. Singapore's on - land inventory continued to accumulate, ARA port inventory continued to accumulate, and US residual oil inventory decreased slightly. After the supply recovers, there is room for the crack spread and the inter - month spread to decline. The high - sulfur crack spread has started to loosen, and the overseas market game remains strong. Affected by consumption tax deductions and tariff adjustments in China this year, the refinery feedstock demand for fuel oil has declined significantly. In the bunker fuel sector, the global high - sulfur bunker fuel from January to March increased by 2% year - on - year, Singapore remained basically flat, and the total bunker fuel was weaker year - on - year. Attention should be paid to the impact of tariffs on global trade activities. Recently, Saudi Arabia's net imports have rebounded, Egypt's purchases have continued, and high - sulfur fuel oil is still in the peak season. Attention should be paid to the opportunity of the medium - term decline in the high - sulfur crack spread. With high domestic production scheduling, a high - short strategy for LU at home and abroad is maintained [3][8] 3. Summary by Directory Rotterdam Fuel Oil Data - From June 3, 2025, to June 9, 2025, the price of Rotterdam 3.5% HSF O swap M1 increased by 6.60, Rotterdam 0.5% VLS FO swap M1 increased by 4.06, Rotterdam HSFO - Brent M1 increased by 0.31, Rotterdam 10ppm Gasoil swap M1 increased by 6.05, Rotterdam VLSFO - Gasoil M1 decreased by 1.99, LGO - Brent M1 increased by 0.20, and Rotterdam VLSFO - HSFO M1 decreased by 2.54 [1] Singapore Fuel Oil Data - From June 3, 2025, to June 9, 2025, the price of Singapore 380cst M1 increased by 10.49, Singapore 180cst M1 increased by 11.09, Singapore VLSFO M1 increased by 6.89, Singapore Gasoil M1 increased by 1.85, Singapore 380cst - Brent M1 decreased by 0.11, and Singapore VLSFO - Gasoil M1 decreased by 6.80 [1] Singapore Fuel Oil Spot Data - From June 3, 2025, to June 9, 2025, the FOB price of 380cst increased by 2.79, the FOB price of VLSFO increased by 0.30, the 380 basis remained unchanged, the high - sulfur domestic - foreign price difference decreased by 2.3, and the low - sulfur domestic - foreign price difference decreased by 0.3 [2] Domestic FU Data - From June 3, 2025, to June 9, 2025, the price of FU 01 increased by 20, FU 05 increased by 11, FU 09 increased by 16, FU 01 - 05 declined, FU 05 - 09 decreased by 5, and FU 09 - 01 decreased by 4 [2] Domestic LU Data - From June 3, 2025, to June 9, 2025, the price of LU 01 increased by 26, LU 05 increased by 5, LU 09 decreased by 1, LU 01 - 05 increased by 21, LU 05 - 09 increased by 6, and LU 09 - 01 decreased by 27 [3]

| | | | | 燃料油早报 | | 研究中心能化团队 2025/06/09 | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 燃 料 油 | | | | | | | | | 日期 | 鹿特丹3.5% HSF | 鹿特丹0.5% VLS | 鹿特丹HSFO-Br | 鹿特丹10ppm G | 鹿特丹VLSFO-G | LGO-Brent M1 | 鹿特丹VLSFO-H | | | O掉期 M1 | FO掉期 M1 | ent M1 | asoil掉期 M1 | O M1 | | SFO M1 | | 2025/05/30 | 395.10 | 440.25 | -0.25 | 574.08 | -133.83 | 16.18 | 45.15 | | 2025/06/03 | 397.26 | 449.90 | -2.56 | 599.32 | -149.42 | 16.85 | 52.64 | | 2025/06/04 | 391.22 | 442.85 | -2.37 | 589.89 | -147.04 | 16.42 | 51.63 | | ...

Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2) Core Viewpoints - This week, the high - sulfur crack spread declined slightly, the 380 near - end ran strongly, the monthly spread oscillated at a high level, and the basis strengthened again. The low - sulfur crack spread oscillated, the near - end monthly spread oscillated, and the basis weakened [3][4]. - This week, inventories continued to accumulate on land in Singapore, slightly increased at ARA ports, decreased for US residual oil, and significantly decreased at Fujairah. After the low - sulfur valuation was realized recently, there is room for downward correction in the crack spread and the monthly spread after supply recovers. The high - sulfur crack spread is running strongly, with profits higher than the historical average. This year, affected by consumption tax deductions and tariff adjustments in China, the feedstock demand of fuel oil refineries has dropped significantly. In terms of marine fuel, the global high - sulfur marine fuel from January to March increased by 2% year - on - year, basically unchanged in Singapore, and the total marine fuel was weak year - on - year. Pay attention to the impact of tariffs on global trade activities in the future. Recently, the net import of Saudi residual oil has rebounded, and Egypt's purchases continue. The high - sulfur near - end remains strong. Pay attention to the opportunity of the high - sulfur crack spread to decline in the medium and long term [3][4]. 3) Summary by Relevant Catalogs Rotterdam Fuel Oil - From May 28 to June 4, 2025, the price of Rotterdam 3.5% HSF O swap M1 decreased by 6.04, Rotterdam 0.5% VLS FO swap M1 decreased by 7.05, Rotterdam HSFO - Brent M1 increased by 0.19, Rotterdam 10ppm Gasoil swap M1 decreased by 9.43, Rotterdam VLSFO - GO M1 increased by 2.38, LGO - Brent M1 decreased by 0.43, and Rotterdam VLSFO - HSFO M1 decreased by 1.01 [1]. Singapore Fuel Oil - From May 28 to June 4, 2025, the price of Singapore 380cst M1 increased by 6.98, Singapore 180cst M1 increased by 6.83, Singapore VLSFO M1 increased by 7.07, Singapore GO M1 increased by 1.09, Singapore 380cst - Brent M1 increased by 0.26, and Singapore VLSFO - GO M1 decreased by 0.99 [1]. Singapore Fuel Oil Spot - From May 28 to June 4, 2025, the FOB price of 380cst increased by 11.43, the FOB price of VLSFO increased by 7.14, the 380 basis increased by 4.10, the high - sulfur domestic - foreign price difference increased by 0.9, and the low - sulfur domestic - foreign price difference decreased by 1.6 [2]. Domestic FU - From May 28 to June 4, 2025, the price of FU 01 increased by 5, FU 05 increased by 10, FU 09 increased by 13, FU 01 - 05 decreased by 5, FU 05 - 09 decreased by 3, and FU 09 - 01 increased by 8 [2]. Domestic LU - From May 28 to June 4, 2025, the price of LU 01 increased by 48, LU 05 increased by 24, LU 09 increased by 46, LU 01 - 05 increased by 24, LU 05 - 09 decreased by 22, and LU 09 - 01 decreased by 2 [3].

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - Not mentioned Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - This week, the high - sulfur cracking margin declined slightly, the 380 - cst near - end ran strongly, the monthly spread oscillated at a high level, and the basis strengthened again. The low - sulfur cracking margin oscillated, the near - end monthly spread oscillated, and the basis weakened. Recently, the low - sulfur valuation has been realized, and there is room for the cracking margin and the monthly spread to decline after the supply recovers. The high - sulfur cracking margin runs strongly, with profits higher than the historical average. This year, affected by consumption tax deduction and tariff adjustment in China, the refinery feed demand for fuel oil has dropped significantly. In the shipping fuel sector, the global high - sulfur shipping fuel from January to March increased by 2% year - on - year, and that in Singapore was basically flat, while the total shipping fuel was weaker year - on - year. Recently, the net import of Saudi Arabian residue has rebounded, and Egypt's purchases continue, so the high - sulfur near - end remains strong. Pay attention to the medium - and long - term opportunity for the high - sulfur cracking margin to decline [3][4] Group 3: Key Data Summaries Rotterdam Fuel Oil | Product | 2025/05/27 | 2025/06/03 | Change | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 3.5% HSF O Swap M1 | 398.15 | 397.26 | -0.89 | | 0.5% VLS FO Swap M1 | 442.03 | 449.90 | 7.87 | | HSFO - Brent M1 | -0.39 | -2.56 | -2.17 | | 10ppm Gasoil Swap M1 | 581.80 | 599.32 | 17.52 | | VLSFO - Gasoil M1 | -139.77 | -149.42 | -9.65 | | LGO - Brent M1 | 16.18 | 16.85 | 0.67 | | VLSFO - HSFO M1 | 43.88 | 52.64 | 8.76 | [1] Singapore Fuel Oil | Product | 2025/05/27 | 2025/06/03 | Change | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 380cst M1 | 416.86 | 404.63 | -12.23 | | 180cst M1 | 423.87 | 411.53 | -12.34 | | VLSFO M1 | 481.97 | 475.64 | -6.33 | | Gasoil M1 | 78.88 | 79.52 | 0.64 | | 380cst - Brent M1 | 1.49 | -0.48 | -1.97 | | VLSFO - Gasoil M1 | -101.74 | -112.81 | -11.07 | [1] Singapore Fuel Oil Spot | Product | 2025/05/27 | 2025/06/03 | Change | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | FOB 380cst | 420.21 | 422.45 | 2.24 | | FOB VLSFO | 488.92 | 486.45 | -2.47 | | 380 Basis | 5.50 | 5.50 | 0 | | High - sulfur Domestic - Foreign Spread | 10.1 | 4.9 | -5.2 | | Low - sulfur Domestic - Foreign Spread | 11.9 | 16.7 | 4.8 | [2] Domestic FU | Product | 2025/05/27 | 2025/06/03 | Change | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | FU 01 | 2676 | 2705 | 29 | | FU 05 | 2611 | 2642 | 31 | | FU 09 | 2819 | 2828 | 9 | | FU 01 - 05 | 65 | 63 | -2 | | FU 05 - 09 | -208 | -186 | 22 | | FU 09 - 01 | 143 | 123 | -20 | [2] Domestic LU | Product | 2025/05/27 | 2025/06/03 | Change | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | LU 01 | 3344 | 3333 | -11 | | LU 05 | 3282 | 3286 | 4 | | LU 09 | 3415 | 3425 | 10 | | LU 01 - 05 | 62 | 47 | -15 | | LU 05 - 09 | -133 | -139 | -6 | | LU 09 - 01 | 71 | 92 | 21 | [3]

| | | | | 燃料油早报 | | 研究中心能化团队 2025/06/03 | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 燃 料 油 | | | | | | | | | 日期 | 鹿特丹3.5% HSF | 鹿特丹0.5% VLS | 鹿特丹HSFO-Br | 鹿特丹10ppm G | 鹿特丹VLSFO-G | LGO-Brent M1 | 鹿特丹VLSFO-H | | | O掉期 M1 | FO掉期 M1 | ent M1 | asoil掉期 M1 | O M1 | | SFO M1 | | 2025/05/26 | 401.31 | 447.03 | -0.94 | 585.92 | -138.89 | 16.20 | 45.72 | | 2025/05/27 | 398.15 | 442.03 | -0.39 | 581.80 | -139.77 | 16.18 | 43.88 | | 2025/05/28 | 410.97 | 449.14 | 0.26 | 592.74 | -143.60 | 16.78 | 38.17 | | ...

| 国 内 F U | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 日期 | FU 01 | FU 05 | FU 09 | FU 01-05 | FU 05-09 | FU 09-01 | | 2025/05/09 | 2638 | 2608 | 2773 | 30 | -165 | 135 | | 2025/05/12 | 2699 | 2659 | 2832 | 40 | -173 | 133 | | 2025/05/13 | 2709 | 2665 | 2839 | 44 | -174 | 130 | | 2025/05/14 | 2755 | 2697 | 2893 | 58 | -196 | 138 | | 2025/05/15 | 2686 | 2644 | 2818 | 42 | -174 | 132 | | 变化 | -69 | -53 | -75 | -16 | 22 | -6 | 国 内 L U | 日期 | LU 01 | LU 05 | LU 09 | LU 01-05 | LU 05-09 | LU 09-01 ...

燃 料 油 日期 鹿特丹3.5% HSF O掉期 M1 鹿特丹0.5% VLS FO掉期 M1 鹿特丹HSFO-Br ent M1 鹿特丹10ppm G asoil掉期 M1 鹿特丹VLSFO-G O M1 LGO-Brent M1 鹿特丹VLSFO-H SFO M1 2025/05/06 380.62 426.34 -2.19 571.31 -144.97 16.94 45.72 2025/05/07 376.49 422.72 -1.76 558.93 -136.21 16.36 46.23 2025/05/08 385.77 431.14 -1.51 571.02 -139.88 16.22 45.37 2025/05/09 391.29 432.57 -1.45 579.21 -146.64 16.19 41.28 2025/05/12 402.21 442.91 -1.29 591.43 -148.02 16.88 40.70 变化 10.92 10.34 0.16 12.22 -1.38 0.69 -0.58 新加坡VLSFO M 新加坡380cst-Br 新加坡VLSFO-G | 日期 | | ...