| | | | 燃料油早报 | | --- | | 研究中心能化团队 2025/09/05 | | --- | | 燃 料 油 | | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 日期 | 鹿特丹3.5% HSF | 鹿特丹0.5% VLS | 鹿特丹HSFO-Br | 鹿特丹10ppm G | 鹿特丹VLSFO-G | LGO-Brent M1 | 鹿特丹VLSFO-H | | | O掉期 M1 | FO掉期 M1 | ent M1 | asoil掉期 M1 | O M1 | | SFO M1 | | 2025/08/29 | 389.06 | 456.37 | -6.14 | 654.16 | -197.79 | 22.15 | 67.31 | | 2025/09/01 | 388.11 | 456.37 | -6.40 | 658.54 | -202.17 | 22.05 | 68.26 | | 2025/09/02 | 388.05 | 456.06 | -7.14 | 673.38 | -217.32 | 22.94 ...

| | | | | 燃料油早报 | | 研究中心能化团队 2025/09/03 | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 燃 料 油 | | | | | | | | | 日期 | 鹿特丹3.5% HSF | 鹿特丹0.5% VLS | 鹿特丹HSFO-Br | 鹿特丹10ppm G | 鹿特丹VLSFO-G | LGO-Brent M1 | 鹿特丹VLSFO-H | | | O掉期 M1 | FO掉期 M1 | ent M1 | asoil掉期 M1 | O M1 | | SFO M1 | | 2025/08/27 | 381.95 | 454.66 | -6.75 | 652.68 | -198.02 | 22.05 | 72.71 | | 2025/08/28 | 385.38 | 454.91 | -6.42 | 652.43 | -197.52 | 21.45 | 69.53 | | 2025/08/29 | 389.06 | 456.37 | -6.14 | 654.16 | -197.79 | 22.15 | 67.31 | | ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided in the document. 2. Core Viewpoints - This week, the high - sulfur cracking of Singapore 380cst weakened, the near - month spread weakened (9 - 10 at 0.75 USD/ton, 10 - 11 at 3.25 USD/ton), the basis rebounded, and the EW spread continued to rebound. Affected by the new round of US sanctions on Iran (covering Dongjiakou and Yangshan Shenggang), the near - month internal - external spread of FU fluctuated greatly, and the 09 contract once returned above par. The low - sulfur cracking weakened, the spread oscillated (9 - 10 at 2 USD/ton, 10 - 11 at 2.75 USD/ton), and the internal - external spread of LU strengthened slightly to 10 USD [2][3]. - Fundamentally, Singapore's land - based residue inventory continued to decline, floating storage inventory decreased significantly, and low - sulfur floating storage increased. In July, Singapore's high - sulfur bunker fueling volume increased by 15% month - on - month and 10% year - on - year. The land - based inventory in Fujairah, Middle East decreased significantly, and floating storage decreased significantly. This week, Saudi Arabia's shipments decreased month - on - month, and UAE's shipments oscillated. US residue inventory increased slightly but remained at the lowest level in the same period in history, ARA ports decreased slightly, and floating storage increased slightly [3]. - The global supply - demand of high - sulfur fuel oil weakened. Due to the reshaping of logistics, the demand for high - sulfur marine fuel in Singapore provided support, and the EW spread was still recovering. The delivery volume of FU was still relatively large, and subsequent delivery changes should be monitored. The new round of sanctions had a relatively large potential impact on domestic heavy crude oil, providing a certain support for the valuation of Asian fuel oil. This week, LU remained weak, the basis of external MF0.5 oscillated at a low level, and the internal - external spread of LU oscillated. In the short term, opportunities for the expansion of high - sulfur 380 EW could still be considered [3]. 3. Data Summary Rotterdam Fuel Oil | Type | Value on 2025/08/22 | Value on 2025/08/25 | Value on 2025/08/26 | Value on 2025/08/27 | Value on 2025/08/28 | Change | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Rotterdam 3.5% HSF O Swap M1 | 390.33 | 394.08 | 383.86 | 381.95 | 392.11 | 10.16 | | Rotterdam 0.5% VLS FO Swap M1 | 456.25 | 461.01 | 452.63 | 454.66 | 460.06 | 5.40 | | Rotterdam HSFO - Brent M1 | - 5.69 | - 6.05 | - 6.45 | - 6.75 | - 6.20 | 0.55 | | Rotterdam 10ppm Gasoil Swap M1 | 658.70 | 667.32 | 651.89 | 652.68 | 652.68 | 0.00 | | Rotterdam VLSFO - Gasoil M1 | - 202.45 | - 206.31 | - 199.26 | - 198.02 | - 192.62 | 5.40 | | LGO - Brent M1 | 23.04 | 23.15 | 22.75 | 22.05 | 21.45 | - 0.60 | | Rotterdam VLSFO - HSFO M1 | 65.92 | 66.93 | 68.77 | 72.71 | 67.95 | - 4.76 | [2] Singapore Fuel Oil | Type | Value on 2025/08/22 | Value on 2025/08/25 | Value on 2025/08/26 | Value on 2025/08/27 | Value on 2025/08/28 | Change | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Singapore 380cst M1 | 391.89 | 399.93 | 397.90 | 394.03 | 403.51 | 9.48 | | Singapore 180cst M1 | 404.08 | 412.49 | 410.84 | 406.97 | 410.37 | 3.40 | | Singapore VLSFO M1 | 482.52 | 488.53 | 487.99 | 482.43 | 489.46 | 7.03 | | Singapore Gasoil M1 | 86.09 | 86.39 | 86.31 | 85.06 | 85.49 | 0.43 | | Singapore 380cst - Brent M1 | - 5.38 | - 4.41 | - 5.01 | - 4.53 | - 4.41 | 0.12 | | Singapore VLSFO - Gasoil M1 | - 154.55 | - 150.76 | - 150.70 | - 147.01 | - 143.17 | 3.84 | [2][4] Singapore Fuel Oil Spot | Type | Value on 2025/08/22 | Value on 2025/08/25 | Value on 2025/08/26 | Value on 2025/08/27 | Value on 2025/08/28 | Change | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | FOB 380cst | 390.58 | 397.15 | 396.25 | 395.34 | 392.84 | - 2.50 | | FOB VLSFO | 482.56 | 488.41 | 489.51 | 485.57 | 484.90 | - 0.67 | | 380 Basis | - 1.75 | - 2.55 | - 2.00 | 1.50 | - 1.25 | - 2.75 | | High - sulfur Internal - External Spread | 0.8 | 4.5 | 4.1 | 2.1 | 3.6 | 1.5 | | Low - sulfur Internal - External Spread | 10.6 | 10.6 | 9.5 | 9.2 | 9.3 | 0.1 | [2] Domestic FU | Type | Value on 2025/08/22 | Value on 2025/08/25 | Value on 2025/08/26 | Value on 2025/08/27 | Value on 2025/08/28 | Change | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | FU 01 | 2769 | 2831 | 2842 | 2790 | 2793 | 3 | | FU 05 | 2748 | 2790 | 2799 | 2748 | 2750 | 2 | | FU 09 | 2736 | 2845 | 2827 | 2763 | 2760 | - 3 | | FU 01 - 05 | 21 | 41 | 43 | 42 | 43 | 1 | | FU 05 - 09 | 12 | - 55 | - 28 | - 15 | - 10 | 5 | | FU 09 - 01 | - 33 | 14 | - 15 | - 27 | - 33 | - 6 | [2] Domestic LU | Type | Value on 2025/08/22 | Value on 2025/08/25 | Value on 2025/08/26 | Value on 2025/08/27 | Value on 2025/08/28 | Change | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | LU 01 | 3462 | 3491 | 3488 | 3444 | 3461 | 17 | | LU 05 | 3384 | 3449 | 3451 | 3408 | 3411 | 3 | | LU 09 | 3468 | 3403 | 3460 | 3418 | 3410 | - 8 | | LU 01 - 05 | 78 | 42 | 37 | 36 | 50 | 14 | | LU 05 - 09 | - 84 | 46 | - 9 | - 10 | 1 | 11 | | LU 09 - 01 | 6 | - 88 | - 28 | - 26 | - 51 | - 25 | [2]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content found Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - This week, the high - sulfur cracking of Singapore 380cst weakened, the near - month spread weakened (9 - 10 at 0.75 USD/ton, 10 - 11 at 3.25 USD/ton), the basis rebounded, and the EW spread continued to rebound. Affected by the new round of US sanctions on Iran (covering Dongjiakou and Yangshan Shengang), the near - month internal and external spread of FU fluctuated greatly, and the 09 contract once returned above par. The low - sulfur cracking weakened, the spread oscillated (9 - 10 at 2 USD/ton, 10 - 11 at 2.75 USD/ton), and the LU internal and external spread strengthened slightly to 10 USD. [5][6] - Fundamentally, Singapore's land - based residue inventory continued to decline, floating storage inventory decreased significantly, and low - sulfur floating storage increased. Singapore's high - sulfur bunkering volume in July increased by 15% month - on - month and 10% year - on - year. The land - based inventory in Fujairah, Middle East decreased significantly, and floating storage decreased significantly. This week, Saudi Arabia's shipments decreased month - on - month, and UAE's shipments oscillated. US residue inventory increased slightly but was at the lowest level in the same period in history, ARA ports decreased slightly, and floating storage increased slightly. [6] - The global supply - demand of high - sulfur fuel oil weakened. Due to the reshaping of logistics, the demand for high - sulfur marine fuel in Singapore provided support, the EW spread was still recovering, and the delivery volume of FU was still relatively large. Attention should be paid to subsequent delivery changes. The new round of sanctions had a large potential impact on domestic heavy crude oil, providing some support for Asian fuel oil valuation. This week, LU remained weak, the basis of external MF0.5 oscillated at a low level, and LU internal and external prices oscillated. In the short term, opportunities for the expansion of high - sulfur 380 EW could still be focused on. [6] Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs Rotterdam Fuel Oil Data - From August 19 to August 25, 2025, the price of Rotterdam 3.5% HSF O swap M1 increased by 4.01, Rotterdam 0.5% VLS FO swap M1 increased by 6.04, Rotterdam HSFO - Brent M1 decreased by 0.41, Rotterdam 10ppm Gasoil swap M1 increased by 8.62, Rotterdam VLSFO - Gasoil M1 decreased by 2.58, LGO - Brent M1 increased by 0.11, and Rotterdam VLSFO - HSFO M1 increased by 2.03. [3] Singapore Fuel Oil Data - From August 19 to August 25, 2025, the price of Singapore 380cst M1 increased by 9.69, Singapore 180cst M1 increased by 11.54, Singapore VLSFO M1 increased by 8.51, Singapore Gasoil M1 increased by 1.10, Singapore 380cst - Brent M1 increased by 0.42, and Singapore VLSFO - Gasoil M1 increased by 0.37. [3] - For Singapore fuel oil spot, from August 19 to August 25, 2025, FOB 380cst increased by 6.57, FOB VLSFO increased by 5.85, 380 basis decreased by 0.80, high - sulfur internal and external spread increased by 3.7, and low - sulfur internal and external spread remained unchanged. [4] Domestic FU Data - From August 19 to August 25, 2025, FU 01 increased by 62, FU 05 increased by 42, FU 09 increased by 109, FU 01 - 05 increased by 20, FU 05 - 09 decreased by 67, and FU 09 - 01 increased by 47. [4] Domestic LU Data - From August 19 to August 25, 2025, LU 01 increased by 29, LU 05 increased by 65, LU 09 decreased by 65, LU 01 - 05 decreased by 36, LU 05 - 09 increased by 130, and LU 09 - 01 decreased by 94. [5]