当地时间29日，美国总统特朗普表示，他将在下周公布美国联邦储备委员会下一任主席的提名人选。特 朗普当天早些时候在社交媒体上批评美联储主席鲍威尔"再次拒绝降息"，并声称美国利率应该在世界上 处于最低水平。特朗普还称，美联储下一任主席将"干得不错"，美联储目前利率"高得不可接受"。 ...

据CME"美联储观察"：美联储到3月降息25个基点的概率为13.5%，维持利率不变的概率为86.5%。美联 储到4月累计降息25个基点的概率为24.1%，维持利率不变的概率为74%，累计降息50个基点的概率为 2.0%。 ...

新 > 社 主管主办 上海譜券報 【市场回顾】 现货黄金、白银1月28日 标普500指数创新高 【个股资讯】 通用汽车预订今年公司 40亿美元之间 (机构观点) 机构上调白银目标价至 将升至7100美元/盎司 美联储1月不降息概率高 C国际宏观） 芝商所调整自银等保证金 日本央行:若前景符合预 【市场回顾】 北京时间1月28日早盘，现货黄金、白银下挫。伦敦金现相继跌破5180美元/盎司、5170美元/盎司、5160美元/盎司关口；伦敦银现向下逼近110美元/盎司 日韩股市28日开盘表现分化。日经225指数跌0.58%，韩国综合指数涨1.19%。 "美联储传声筒"Nick Timirao认为美联储1月将维持利率不变。在谈及可能诱使美联储降息的因素时他表示，这取决于劳动力市场是否出现崩溃，或通胀是否 向2%的目标水平显著回落。而自去年12月议息会议以来，这两种都尚未出现。即便白宫施加了巨大政治压力，美联储仍处于观望状态。 据CME"美联储观察"，美联储1月降息25个基点的概率2.8%，维持利率不变的概率为97.2%。到3月累计降息25个基点的概率为17.4%，维持利率不变的概率 为82.2%，累计降息50个基点的 ...

美联储本周维持利率不变的概率为97.2% 据CME"美联储观察"：美联储1月降息25个基点的概率2.8%，维持利率不变的概率为97.2%。到3月累计 降息25个基点的概率为15.5%，维持利率不变的概率为84.1%，累计降息50个基点的概率为0.4%。 来源：新浪网 【免责声明】本文仅代表作者本人观点，与和讯网无关。和讯网站对文中陈述、观点判断保持中立，不 对所包含内容的准确性、可靠性或完整性提供任何明示或暗示的保证。请读者仅作参考，并请自行承担 全部责任。邮箱：news_center@staff.hexun.com 1月27日，人民币兑美元中间价报6.9858，下调15点。 ...

【1月27日CME"美联储观察"公布美联储利率调整概率】1月27日，CME"美联储观察"数据显示，美联 储1月降息25个基点的概率为2.8%，维持利率不变的概率达97.2%。 数据还表明，到3月，美联储累计降 息25个基点的概率为15.5%，维持利率不变的概率是84.1%，累计降息50个基点的概率为0.4%。 本文由 AI 算法生成，仅作参考，不涉投资建议，使用风险自担 【免责声明】本文仅代表作者本人观点，与和讯网无关。和讯网站对文中陈述、观点判断保持中立，不 对所包含内容的准确性、可靠性或完整性提供任何明示或暗示的保证。请读者仅作参考，并请自行承担 全部责任。邮箱：news_center@staff.hexun.com ...

Group 1 - The probability of the Federal Reserve lowering interest rates by 25 basis points in January is 2.8%, while the probability of maintaining the current rate is 97.2% [1] - By March, the cumulative probability of a 25 basis point rate cut rises to 15.5%, with an 84.1% chance of keeping rates unchanged, and a 0.4% probability of a cumulative 50 basis point cut [1]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article indicates that the probability of the Federal Reserve lowering interest rates by 25 basis points in January is 2.8%, while the probability of maintaining the current rate is 97.2% [1] - By March, the cumulative probability of a 25 basis point rate cut is 15.5%, with an 84.1% chance of keeping rates unchanged, and a 0.4% probability of a 50 basis point cut [1]

Core Viewpoint - The probability of the Federal Reserve lowering interest rates by 25 basis points in January is 5%, while the probability of maintaining the current rate is 95% [1] Group 1 - By March, the cumulative probability of a 25 basis point rate cut rises to 15.4%, with an 84.1% chance of keeping rates unchanged [1] - The likelihood of a cumulative 50 basis point rate cut by March is only 0.6% [1]

Market Overview - International gold prices rose significantly, opening at $4,674.22 per ounce and closing at $4,737.51 per ounce, with a high of $4,751.33 and a low of $4,659.49 [1] - The largest gold ETF, SPDR Gold Trust, saw a decrease in holdings by 4.01 tons, bringing the total to 1,081.66 tons [6] Geopolitical Insights - Ray Dalio, founder of Bridgewater Associates, indicated a shift from a multilateral to a unilateral world order, reminiscent of pre-1945 norms, suggesting that the current global dynamics are characterized by power struggles among nations [3] - European Central Bank President Christine Lagarde noted that political tensions are eroding trust between Europe and the U.S., which may accelerate the long-stalled European integration process [3] - Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau highlighted Russia as a potential threat in the Arctic, emphasizing the need for Canada to enhance its military capabilities in response [5] U.S. Political Developments - President Trump expressed the need for Greenland to ensure global security and mentioned the possibility of reclaiming the Panama Canal [4] - Two Democratic senators are demanding records related to a criminal investigation of Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell, marking a formal response to earlier subpoenas [5] Technical Analysis - Gold prices have shown a strong upward trend, with significant gains over the past two trading days, indicating a stable bullish trend [8] - The daily and hourly RSI indicators are showing overbought conditions, suggesting a potential need for price adjustments despite the strong bullish trend [8]

Core Viewpoint - The U.S. Treasury Secretary Mnuchin indicated that President Trump is expected to finalize the selection of the next Federal Reserve Chair as early as next week, narrowing the candidates down to four from an initial list of eleven [3][7]. Group 1: Federal Reserve Chair Selection - The selection process for the next Federal Reserve Chair began in September of the previous year, with a total of eleven strong candidates initially considered [3][7]. - The final four candidates have all met with President Trump, who will make the ultimate decision [3][7]. Group 2: Interest Rate Projections - According to CME's "FedWatch," there is a 95% probability that the Federal Reserve will maintain interest rates unchanged in January [3][7]. - The probability of a 25 basis point rate cut in January is 5%, while the likelihood of maintaining the current rate is 95% [3][7]. - By March, the cumulative probability of a 25 basis point rate cut is projected at 20.6%, with a 78.5% chance of keeping rates unchanged, and a 0.9% chance of a 50 basis point cut [3][7].