Core Viewpoint - Wall Street's trading desks anticipate that the upcoming Consumer Price Index (CPI) report will indicate elevated inflation data, but they do not expect significant stock market volatility due to the focus on employment data [1] Group 1: Market Expectations - Options traders are betting that the S&P 500 index will experience a two-way movement of approximately 0.7% following the CPI release, which is lower than the average actual volatility of 0.9% on CPI announcement days over the past year [1] - The implied volatility remains high, as traders are assessing the Federal Reserve's interest rate path [1] Group 2: Economic Indicators - Recent employment data has shown signs of weakness that threaten economic growth, leading the market to expect a 25 basis point cut in the federal funds rate at the conclusion of the Federal Reserve meeting on September 17 [1] - There are also expectations for potential rate cuts in the meetings scheduled for October and December [1]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints The report presents a comprehensive analysis of the futures market, including overnight and spot prices, important fundamental information, international and domestic supply - demand situations, macro - news, fund flows, and arbitrage tracking. It covers various commodities such as palm oil, soybeans, and related products, as well as macro - economic indicators from both the US and China [1][2][3]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Overnight行情 - Overnight prices and price changes of various futures are presented, including Malaysian palm oil, Brent crude oil, US crude oil, US soybeans, soybean meal, and soybean oil, along with currency exchange rates [1]. 3.2 Spot行情 - Spot prices, basis, and basis changes of DCE palm oil, DCE soybean oil, and DCE soybean meal in different regions are provided, and import soybean CNF quotes are also given [2]. 3.3 Important Fundamental Information - **Weather Outlook**: US soybean - producing states' future weather shows varying temperatures and precipitation levels. The Midwest has local or sporadic precipitation in the near - term and will be dry later, with potential early frost in some areas [3][4][5]. - **International Supply - Demand**: Malaysian palm oil production in August increased by 2.07% to 1.85 million tons. The drought - affected area of US soybeans increased to 16%. StoneX lowered the US soybean yield forecast. Brazil's soybean exports in August increased, and its September export volume is expected to rise [7][8][9]. - **Domestic Supply - Demand**: On September 4, the trading volume of domestic edible oils decreased, and the trading volume of soybean meal changed. The开机 rate of oil mills increased slightly. Agricultural product prices showed different trends [11]. 3.4 Macro News - **International**: The probability of the Fed cutting interest rates is high. US economic data such as initial jobless claims, ADP employment, and Challenger corporate lay - offs are presented. Eurozone retail sales decreased [13][14][15]. - **Domestic**: The RMB appreciated against the US dollar on September 4. The central bank conducted reverse - repurchase operations, with net回笼 on September 4 and a planned large - scale买断式逆回购 on September 5 [17]. 3.5 Fund Flows - Fund flows of various futures are provided, with positive flows into some futures like CSI 500 index futures and negative flows into many others such as crude oil, gold, and silver [19]. 3.6 Arbitrage Tracking No specific content provided.

Core Viewpoint - The Federal Reserve may lower interest rates to at least 3%, with the market underestimating the potential for rates to drop below 3% [1] Summary by Relevant Categories - Interest Rate Strategy - Mark Cabana, the head of interest rate strategy at a major bank, indicates a possible reduction in interest rates by the Federal Reserve to a minimum of 3% [1] - There is a market perception that the Federal Reserve's potential to lower rates below 3% is underestimated [1]

Group 1 - The price of physical gold from Shoudasheng is quoted at 1027 CNY per gram, an increase of 12 CNY per gram compared to the previous day [1] - Platinum prices are quoted at 553 CNY per gram, rising by 2 CNY per gram from the previous day [1] - The gold price on August 26 was 1015 CNY per gram, indicating a notable increase in the past week [1] Group 2 - According to CME's "Fed Watch," the probability of the Federal Reserve maintaining interest rates in September is 12.6%, while the probability of a 25 basis point rate cut is 87.4% [1] - The probability of the Federal Reserve keeping rates unchanged in October is 5.6%, with cumulative probabilities for a 25 basis point cut at 45.8% and a 50 basis point cut at 48.6% [1]

Core Viewpoint - The Euro/USD pair is experiencing slight declines around 1.1600 due to a mild rise in the US dollar, with investors focusing on upcoming key US economic data releases, including Q2 GDP and PCE inflation data [1][5] Technical Overview - The Euro/USD shows signs of recovery but remains in a consolidation phase, with resistance at the August high of 1.1742. A breakout could lead to levels of 1.1788 and 1.1830, with a potential target of 1.1909 [3] - Key support levels are identified at the 100-day simple moving average of 1.1502, above the August low of 1.1391 and the weekly pivot of 1.1210 [3] Momentum Indicators - Momentum indicators are mixed, with the Relative Strength Index (RSI) slightly above 50 indicating moderate upward potential, while the Average Directional Index (ADX) below 11 suggests a lack of clear trend [4] Market Sentiment - The Euro/USD is expected to remain in a consolidation state until a catalyst emerges, such as new guidance from the Federal Reserve or new trade news, with the dollar likely maintaining a dominant market tone [5] Economic Data Overview - Upcoming economic events include various indicators from Australia, Switzerland, and the Eurozone, with notable figures such as the Eurozone Business Confidence and Consumer Confidence expected to be released [6] Trade Relations - Global trade tensions have eased temporarily, with the US and China agreeing to extend the trade truce for 90 days, although tariffs remain high. The US has imposed a 15% tariff on most European imports, while the EU has agreed to eliminate tariffs on US industrial goods [7] Political Landscape in France - The political situation in France is under scrutiny as Prime Minister François Bayrou faces a confidence vote regarding his budget plan, with potential implications for President Emmanuel Macron's government [8] Federal Reserve's Stance - The Federal Reserve is maintaining a wait-and-see approach, with Chairman Jerome Powell indicating rising risks in the labor market and inflation not yet at target levels, opening the door for potential rate cuts [9] European Central Bank's Position - The European Central Bank (ECB) maintains a more cautious stance, with President Christine Lagarde suggesting that Eurozone economic growth is stable, indicating no urgency for rate cuts [10] Speculative Positions - Speculative positions in the Euro have increased, with net long positions rising to a three-week high, indicating growing confidence in market positions [11]

Market Performance - The three major U.S. stock indices closed higher, with the S&P 500 reaching a new all-time high. The Dow Jones increased by 147.16 points (0.32%) to 45,565.23, the Nasdaq rose by 45.87 points (0.21%) to 21,590.14, and the S&P 500 gained 15.46 points (0.24%) to 6,481.40 [4][2] - Major tech stocks mostly rose, with Intel up over 2%, while Tesla, Netflix, and Meta experienced slight declines [4] Nvidia's Financial Performance - Nvidia's stock fell over 5% in after-hours trading due to disappointing data center revenue, although the company's overall revenue and profit exceeded market expectations. For the second quarter of fiscal year 2026, Nvidia reported revenue of $46.74 billion, a 56% year-over-year increase, and a net profit of $26.42 billion, up 59% year-over-year [6][5] - The data center segment, which is a key growth driver for Nvidia, reported revenue of $41.1 billion for the second quarter, a 56% year-over-year increase, but slightly below the market expectation of $41.34 billion [6][7] - Nvidia's guidance for the third quarter indicates a revenue midpoint of $54 billion, which is above analyst expectations but below some analysts' higher forecasts of $60 billion [7] Geopolitical Developments - Ukrainian President Zelensky announced that a Ukrainian delegation will meet with U.S. representatives in New York on August 29 to discuss military, political, and economic security guarantees for Ukraine [9][10] - Zelensky emphasized the importance of the relationship with the U.S. for Ukraine's long-term security and expressed the need for swift agreements on weapon supplies and joint drone production [10]

Core Viewpoint - The Federal Reserve is expected to maintain interest rates in September with a probability of 11.3%, while there is an 88.7% chance of a 25 basis point rate cut [1] Summary by Relevant Categories Interest Rate Projections - In October, the probability of the Federal Reserve maintaining interest rates is 5.5% [1] - The cumulative probability of a 25 basis point rate cut is 49% [1] - The cumulative probability of a 50 basis point rate cut is 45.5% [1]

Core Viewpoint - The Richmond Fed President Barkin indicated that he expects limited changes in U.S. economic activity for the remainder of the year, suggesting that any adjustments to interest rates by the Federal Reserve may be relatively modest [1] Economic Outlook - Barkin noted that the current economic fluctuations appear to be mild, which would correspond to small adjustments in interest rates [1] - He emphasized that this is a current prediction and will ultimately depend on future economic data [1] Federal Reserve Policy Discussion - Investors widely anticipate a rate cut by the Federal Reserve in the September meeting, following comments from Fed Chair Powell regarding rising downside risks in the labor market [1] - The balance of risks is shifting, which may necessitate adjustments in monetary policy [1] - The Fed will engage in intense discussions regarding the policy path for the remaining meetings in October and December after the September meeting [1] Interest Rate Projections - The dot plot released in June indicated that most officials expect at least two rate cuts this year, although a significant number of officials prefer only one cut or no cuts at all [1] - The Fed will release updated economic and interest rate forecasts following the September meeting [1] Barkin's Position - Barkin did not provide a clear signal regarding his inclination for the September meeting, stating he will make the best judgment based on all available information on the day of the meeting [1]

Core Viewpoint - The recent speech by Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell at the Jackson Hole Global Central Bank Conference has shifted market sentiment, leading to a significant drop in the US dollar and a corresponding rise in gold prices, indicating a potential change in monetary policy direction [4][9][10]. Market Performance - On Friday, the international spot gold price opened at $3338.40, reaching a high of $3378.52 and a low of $3321.19, closing at $3371.69, an increase of $33.36 or 1.00% [1]. - The US dollar index opened at 98.63, peaked at 98.83, dipped to 97.54, and closed at 97.72, down 0.95% [3]. - The Wellxin precious metals index opened at 6900.60, peaked at 7035.63, dipped to 6841.03, and closed at 6991.27, up 1.31% [4]. Federal Reserve Insights - Powell's speech indicated a potential adjustment in the Fed's policy stance, suggesting that the door for a rate cut in September is now open, contrasting with previous expectations of no cuts [9][10]. - The labor market is showing signs of significant slowdown, which raises the risk of job losses, prompting considerations for economic stimulus [9][10]. - Powell noted that inflation risks are tilted upward in the short term, but he emphasized that the Fed would not allow temporary price increases to evolve into a persistent inflation problem [10]. Technical Analysis - The dollar index is currently in a mid-term bearish trend, with recent attempts to break through key moving averages failing, indicating potential further declines [12]. - The latest net positioning in the dollar futures market shows a net short position of $46.7382 billion, indicating a shift in market sentiment towards bearishness on the dollar [14]. - Gold prices are influenced by macro technical patterns, with significant resistance and support levels identified for future movements [16][19]. Fund Flows and Holdings - The latest data shows that the largest gold ETF, SPDR Gold Trust, has a holding of 956.77 tons, valued at $1.031 billion, down from 965.37 tons the previous week [25]. - The largest silver ETF, iShares Silver Trust, reported a holding of 15,288.82 tons, valued at $188.86 million, an increase from 15,071.31 tons [25].

Group 1: Federal Reserve's Current Situation - Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell's speech at the Jackson Hole Economic Policy Symposium was well-received, providing clarity on interest rate expectations [1][2] - The Federal Reserve faces challenges in managing inflation, which is at its highest levels in 40 years, while avoiding a severe recession [3][10] - Recent economic data has shown mixed signals, with labor market data weakening and inflation indicators fluctuating, complicating the Fed's decision-making [6][8] Group 2: Market Reactions and Expectations - Following Powell's speech, the market significantly increased the probability of a rate cut in September to 91%, up from 75% the previous day [12] - The current federal funds rate is between 4.25% and 4.5%, and a potential rate cut could support stock prices and lower borrowing costs, particularly in the housing market [13] - Despite the bullish sentiment, caution is advised as the market is near all-time highs and future economic data could alter the outlook on rate cuts [14][15] Group 3: Inflation and Tariff Impacts - Powell indicated that inflation risks are tilted to the upside due to tariffs, which may have a short-lived impact on consumer prices [10][11] - The July Consumer Price Index (CPI) showed a year-over-year increase of 2.7%, while core inflation rose by 3.1%, indicating persistent inflationary pressures [15] - The uncertainty surrounding the impact of tariffs on inflation remains a concern for the Fed, as previous assumptions about transitory inflation have proven incorrect [15]