Global FX Strategy 25 November 2025 FX 2026 Outlook Presentation: Bearish Dollar, Bullish Beta Top macro trades for 2026 Global FX Strategy Meera Chandan AC (44-20) 7134-2924 meera.chandan@jpmorgan.com J.P. Morgan Securities plc Arindam Sandilya AC (65) 6882-7759 arindam.x.sandilya@jpmorgan.com JPMorgan Chase Bank, N.A., Singapore Branch See the end pages of this presentation for analyst certification and important disclosures. All charts are sourced from J.P. Morgan unless otherwise specified. {[{grdFszrq7 ...

英镑/美元：11月21日报1.3081，较前一交易日上涨0.0008，自1.2920低位反弹后处于震荡上行通道，站 稳1.3040关键支撑位，MACD红色能量柱小幅放大，RSI运行于52-57的中性偏多区间。支撑位依次为 1.3040、1.3030及50小时均线附近的1.3025，阻力集中在1.3080和1.3100，短期内大概率在1.3030-1.3070 区间震荡上行，突破1.3100需英国经济数据持续向好加持。 美元/日元：11月21日汇率报157.28，较前一交易日下跌0.24，虽呈下行状态，但仍处于近期高位区间， 此前上行趋势中的动能尚未完全消退，短期处于多空博弈的调整阶段。支撑位可关注157.00整数关口及 156.80，阻力集中在157.50和158.00，RSI大概率处于高位回落阶段，需警惕超买后的回调风险，短期内 或在156.80-157.50区间震荡调整。 昨日要闻回顾 1、数据——①9月非农就业意外大增11.9万人，失业率却升至四年来最高的4.4%，美联储降息决策更趋 复杂，利率市场仍定价美联储12月不降息。 ②美国上周初请失业金人数降至9月以来最低水平，续请失业金人数持续增长。 北京时 ...

Core Viewpoint - The USD/JPY exchange rate is experiencing a strong upward trend, maintaining above 155.30, with a recent peak at 155.73, marking a 9-month high, indicating a bullish sentiment in the market [1] Group 1: Market Dynamics - The Japanese yen remains weak, hovering near its lowest point since February, due to unclear guidance on future Bank of Japan policies and the government's preference for fiscal expansion and low interest rates, which adds structural pressure on the yen [1] - The ruling party's budget committee proposed an additional fiscal budget exceeding 25 trillion yen to support the Prime Minister's stimulus plan, raising concerns about increased government bond supply and pushing 40-year bond yields to historical highs [1] - The Prime Minister emphasized the risk of deflation and reiterated the desire for inflation driven by wage growth rather than external factors, urging the central bank to continue supporting economic stimulus efforts and expressing resistance to interest rate hikes [1] Group 2: Technical Analysis - Despite the accelerated rise in the USD/JPY pair, the Relative Strength Index (RSI) indicates that it has not yet entered the overbought territory, suggesting potential for further gains if employment data is strong, possibly pushing the exchange rate above 156.00 [3] - Conversely, if the employment data falls short of expectations, it could lead to a bearish reversal, with potential declines towards the 152.00 level and the 50-day moving average at 151.87 [3] Group 3: Risk Sentiment - Global risk sentiment has weakened, leading to a slight increase in safe-haven demand, which provides some support for the yen [2]

本文由 AI算法生成，仅作参考，不涉投资建议，使用风险自担 【11月18日巴克莱建议做多美元/日元】11月18日，巴克莱学家在季度展望中称，因日本首相高市早苗 政策立场偏向"安倍学"，日元或继续承压。鉴于日元对财政风险高度敏感，进一步财政扩张预计会让美 元/日元维持在较高水平。巴克莱建议投资者继续做多美元/日元。 ...

Group 1 - The agreement officially ends a 43-day government shutdown, allowing federal operations to resume until January 30, 2026 [1] - Market focus is shifting towards the backlog of economic data, which will quickly test the current monetary policy outlook [1] Group 2 - Key missing reports: Federal agencies will begin releasing two months of lagging data, including September and October Non-Farm Payroll (NFP) and October Consumer Price Index (CPI) [2] - The U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) is expected to release NFP data within 2-5 business days after resuming operations, potentially as early as this weekend or more likely early next week [2] - The rapid release of economic data will challenge the Federal Reserve's policy outlook, with market attention on whether the data indicates a weak labor market (supporting a rate cut in December) or persistent inflation (limiting easing) [2] Group 3 - According to the CME FedWatch tool, the market expects a 66.9% probability of a 25 basis point rate cut in December, a significant drop from 92% a month ago [3] Group 4 - The resolution of the government shutdown and the upcoming lagging economic data have led to increased volatility in the foreign exchange market [4] - The U.S. Dollar Index (USDX) is maintaining a consolidation around 99.00, with a technical bias still leaning towards bullish due to expectations of the Federal Reserve's policy remaining unchanged and future policy uncertainty [5] Group 5 - The USDX is expected to continue consolidating before the upcoming data provides clearer direction, with the 99.00-100.00 range being a critical testing zone for potential breakouts [8] Group 6 - Despite a slight weakening of the dollar, the USD/JPY pair has seen a small increase, indicating that the pair is correcting from last week's temporary strength due to risk aversion [9] - As the U.S. government shutdown nears its end, the main drivers for yen demand are diminishing, pushing USD/JPY back into bullish momentum [9] Group 7 - Gold prices have continued to rise this week, driven by uncertainty surrounding Federal Reserve policy, a weaker dollar, and the diminishing risk of a government shutdown [12] - As of now, gold prices have increased by over 5% this week, with investors reallocating to alternative safe-haven and inflation-hedging assets, anticipating that the upcoming data flood may challenge the Federal Reserve's policy stance [12] Group 8 - Technically, gold has continued to rise after breaking above $4,200, with recent resistance in the $4,180-$4,200 range, indicating a potential breakout [15] - If gold prices maintain a solid breakout above $4,200, it could signal a bullish opportunity, while a pullback near resistance may present a buying opportunity, with recent support around $4,135 [15] Group 9 - The market is expected to remain highly volatile on Thursday, with investors repricing in the context of the U.S. government reopening while awaiting the release of lagging economic data [16] - The dollar is anticipated to maintain a range-bound pattern, with resistance at 100 and support at 99, sustaining a short-term consolidation phase [16] - Gold remains bullish in the current market environment, but caution is advised as prices approach the critical $4,200 level; a solid breakout could lead to further upward movement, while resistance may result in short-term consolidation or pullback [16]

Core Viewpoint - The market is experiencing fluctuations driven by weak employment data raising interest rate cut expectations, while the impending vote on the U.S. funding bill provides short-term support for the dollar [1][3]. Group 1: Employment Data and Market Reactions - Recent ADP data indicates that the average weekly layoffs in the U.S. private sector reached approximately 11,250, signaling a notable cooling in the job market [1]. - The weak employment data has significantly increased the market's bets on a potential interest rate cut by the Federal Reserve in December, as reflected in the CME FedWatch tool [1][3]. - Market participants are closely monitoring speeches from several Federal Reserve officials for further policy guidance [1]. Group 2: Currency and Commodity Movements - The U.S. dollar index (DXY) stabilized in the range of 99.50 to 99.55, recovering from previous declines [2]. - Gold prices maintained above $4,100, with fluctuations primarily between $4,100 and $4,150, supported by rate cut expectations [2][3]. - The Australian dollar (AUD) saw a slight increase to 0.6550, influenced by the Reserve Bank of Australia's officials maintaining a tightening stance [2]. Group 3: Political Developments and Economic Outlook - The Senate has passed a temporary funding bill, which is now under consideration in the House of Representatives; successful passage could alleviate government shutdown risks and restore the release of official data [1][3]. - The ongoing developments in the funding bill and the upcoming employment data release are expected to be key catalysts for market direction [3].

来源：市场资讯 11月10日，美联储一位高级官员警告称，美国贫困群体日益加剧的困境，正使这个全球最重要的经济体 面临衰退风险。此番言论凸显出美联储决策者在考虑是否于12月再次降息时面临的"平衡难题"。纽约联 储主席威廉姆斯指出，数据及与社区领袖的对话均表明，许多贫困家庭正承受着支付能力危机。"大量 证据显示……中低收入家庭正从支付能力角度面临诸多制约，"威廉姆斯对《金融时报》表示，"包括生 活成本、住房开支，以及许多家庭基本靠按月薪度日的现状。"与此同时，更富裕的美国人正因股市"飙 升至历史高位附近"而获益。随着美国就业市场降温，威廉姆斯暗示，他所谓的美国家庭"分化"行为， 可能成为影响其是否支持美联储在12月降息的关键因素——他将这一投票形容为"平衡术"。 另外，根据加拿大统计局上周五公布的数据，10月净新增就业岗位66，000个，失业率意外从7.1%降至 6.9%，连续第二个月录得改善。 这一结果显著强于市场预期。根据蒙特利尔银行整理的经济学家一致 预期，市场原本预计10月将减少20，000个岗位，失业率将升至 7.2%。 数据显示，10月的新增就业主 要来自兼职岗位，全职岗位变化不大。私营部门就业增加7 ...

Market Overview - The global largest gold ETF held 1,040.35 tons as of November 6, with an increase of 1.72 tons from the previous day and a net increase of 26.32 tons from the previous month [2] Economic Indicators - U.S. economic data shows a significant increase in corporate layoffs by 175.3% year-on-year in October, with a loss of 9,100 jobs reported [3] - The Chicago Fed reported an unemployment rate of approximately 4.36%, the highest in four years [3] - Retail hiring for the holiday season is expected to be the lowest since the financial crisis, although consumer spending may exceed $1 trillion [3] Federal Reserve and Monetary Policy - The Federal Reserve faces increasing policy divergence, with a 72% probability of another rate cut in December [3] - The Bank of England has removed the term "cautious," potentially paving the way for a rate cut in December [3] Gold Market - Spot gold closed at $3,977.16 per ounce, reflecting a resurgence of risk-averse sentiment amid government shutdown concerns and tariff uncertainties [3] Currency Strategies - For EUR/USD, a bullish strategy is suggested above 1.1515, targeting 1.1560 and then 1.1580 [4] - For gold, a bearish strategy is recommended below 3,995, targeting 3,964 and then 3,948 [8] - For USD/JPY, a bearish outlook is anticipated below 153.70, targeting 152.70 and then 152.30 [11] - For GBP/USD, a bullish strategy is advised above 1.3070, targeting 1.3165 and then 1.3195 [14] - For AUD/USD, a bearish strategy is suggested below 0.6500, targeting 0.6460 and then 0.6440 [17]

Group 1: Federal Reserve's Interest Rate Decisions - Several Federal Reserve regional presidents expressed dissatisfaction with the decision to lower interest rates, indicating a growing internal division regarding future rate paths [1] - Dallas Fed President Logan stated that she does not see the necessity for a rate cut unless inflation significantly decreases or the labor market cools down [1] - Cleveland Fed President Harmack criticized the rate cut, suggesting that current rates are close to neutral and further cuts could undermine efforts to bring inflation back to the 2% target [1] Group 2: Economic Indicators and Concerns - Atlanta Fed President Bostic emphasized the need for Powell to demonstrate the internal disagreements to prevent market misinterpretation of the rate path [1] - Fed Governor Waller advocated for a rate cut in December, citing concerns over the labor market and downplaying the inflationary risks from tariffs [2] - Waller noted that the Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) inflation rate is approximately 2.5%, indicating it is not far from the target [2] Group 3: Market Reactions - Gold prices experienced slight declines due to hawkish Fed decisions and reduced expectations for a December rate cut, alongside easing trade tensions [3] - The USD/JPY pair saw a slight decline influenced by profit-taking and expectations of intervention by the Bank of Japan, despite strong CPI data [4] - The USD/CAD pair rose slightly, supported by hawkish Fed sentiments and weak Canadian GDP data, although rising oil prices limited its upward movement [5]

Core Points - The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) is expected to conclude its meeting on October 29, 2025, with a press conference by Chairman Powell at 2:30 PM ET [1] - Traders and economists are highly confident that the Federal Reserve will lower interest rates to a range of 3.75-4.00%, with a 98% probability of a 25 basis point cut [1][3] - The focus will shift to the Fed's monetary policy statement and Powell's press conference to gauge potential market changes following the expected rate cut [3] Interest Rate Expectations - The market anticipates a gradual decline in U.S. interest rates, with a 95% confidence level for another 25 basis point cut in December [3] - The FOMC's path for the remainder of the year appears set unless unexpected circumstances arise [3] - The expected rate cut may not significantly support the economy due to challenges from immigration and AI replacing human labor [3][4] Quantitative Tightening (QT) - A key point of interest in the upcoming FOMC meeting is whether the Fed will announce an end to its QT program, which involves allowing certain debt holdings to mature and reducing the balance sheet [5] - Ending QT could be perceived as a stimulus to the economy, potentially boosting risk-sensitive assets like equities and high-yield currencies while negatively impacting bonds and the dollar [6] Economic Commentary - Fed officials express caution regarding further rate cuts, indicating limited space for additional easing unless there is a deliberate shift towards inappropriate loosening [8] - Concerns about inflation and inflation expectations are highlighted by various Fed officials, suggesting a careful approach to policy adjustments [8] Currency Market Analysis - The USD/JPY currency pair is seen as a pure reflection of U.S. economic trends, with recent price action indicating a potential downward movement towards the 150.00 support level [9] - Any unexpected actions from the FOMC or the Bank of Japan could invalidate current technical strategies [9]