WTI原油期货涨超3%。 多国撤人、美国航母抵以色列，美伊战争风险急剧升高 综合新华社驻外记者报道：美国国务院27日批准其驻以色列使团非紧急必要人员及其家属撤离以色列。 美国驻以大使赫卡比就此表示，如要离开以色列，务必"今天离开"。加拿大等国近日纷纷建议本国公民 立即离开伊朗。随着美军最大航母"福特"号27日抵达以色列，观察人士认为，美伊战争风险急剧升高。 黄金、白银、石油集体大涨，其中黄金/美元当日涨近2%，重回5200美元，白银/美元当日涨超6%，接 近94美元。 美方近期持续对伊朗施加军事压力，向中东增兵。美联社报道认为，虽然美伊同意下周继续谈判，但随 着美国在中东集结庞大战机与战舰群，两国发生战争的风险正在"迫近"。 据路透社27日报道，美军"福特"号航母当天抵达以色列。这意味着美军在中东地区同时部署了"福特"号 和"林肯"号两艘航母。据以色列媒体报道，"福特"号将停靠在以色列北部的海法一带。 对于"福特"号卫生系统出现严重故障的报道，美国海军予以否认。美海军在一份声明中说，该舰相关系 统"在预期参数范围内运行"，未对战备状态和任务执行能力造成影响。"马桶堵塞事件被训练有素的相 关人员迅速解决，堵塞时 ...

美元/日元 美元/日元昨日震荡上行，突破156.00关口并刷新11个交易日高位，现汇价交投于155.70附近。除美联储 官员发表的鹰派言论降温美联储的降息预期对汇价构成了一定的支撑外，日本首相高市早苗反对加息的 报道也是支撑汇价攀升的重要因素。今日关注156.50附近的压力情况，下方支撑在155.00附近。 美元/加元 美元/加元昨日震荡上行，刷新12个交易日高位，现汇价交投于1.3680附近。美元指数在美联储官员鹰 派言论降温降息预期和良好经济数据的支撑下走高是支撑汇价收涨的主要原因。此外，原油价格回落和 贸易不确定激发的避险情绪也对汇价构成了一定的支撑。今日关注1.3750附近的压力情况，下方支撑在 1.3600附近。 责任编辑：陈平 今日需要关注的数据有，德国第四季度季调后GDP季率修正值、德国3月Gfk消费者信心指数和欧元区1 月调和CPI年率。 黄金/美元 黄金昨日震荡下行，一度失守5100关口，现汇价交投于5210附近。除获利回吐对黄金构成了一定的打压 外，时段内美联储官员发表的鹰派言论降温美联储的降息预期也是施压黄金回落的重要因素。不过，地 缘紧张局势和贸易不确定的担忧限制了黄金的回调空间。今日 ...

Group 1: Japanese Government and Central Bank Statements - The Japanese government, represented by Deputy Minister Atsushi Mimura, emphasizes a high level of urgency in monitoring market movements and maintaining close communication with the market [1][7] - Satsuki Katayama's remarks indicate a dual approach of reassuring the market while warning that Japan can take decisive actions, including intervention, if there are rapid fluctuations deviating from fundamentals [1][7] - A Bank of Japan board member, Masu Kazuyuki, asserts that further increases in the policy interest rate are necessary to complete the normalization of monetary policy, which may elevate market expectations for an earlier rate hike [2][8] Group 2: Economic Implications - The interest rate hikes are seen as essential to align Japan's monetary policy with that of other major economies, addressing the persistent weakness of the yen, which has been a core reason for rising import costs affecting businesses and households in Japan [2][8] - The yen's depreciation has been a significant factor in increasing operational costs for Japanese companies and impacting the living standards of residents [2][8] Group 3: Market Data and Trends - Attention is drawn to upcoming economic data, including the Eurozone's February Sentix Investor Confidence Index and the U.S. January Conference Board Employment Trends Index [3][8] - Gold prices rebounded significantly, trading around 5030, supported by short covering and dovish comments from Federal Reserve officials, alongside heightened risk aversion due to U.S.-Iran tensions [4][9] - The USD/JPY pair experienced slight gains amid concerns over Japanese political uncertainty, with current trading around 156.50, while the USD/CAD pair declined to 1.3650 due to profit-taking and a weaker dollar index [5][11]

Group 1: Global Gold Demand Trends - The World Gold Council's 2025 Global Gold Demand Trends Report indicates that global gold demand will reach 5002 tons in 2025, setting a new historical high [1][6] - The total monetary value of gold demand is projected to hit $555 billion, driven by ongoing geopolitical tensions and economic uncertainties [1][6] - The report highlights that the fourth quarter of 2025 will see record-breaking gold demand, contributing to a strong overall performance for the year [1][6] Group 2: Gold Price Dynamics - The average annual price of gold is expected to soar to $3431 per ounce in 2025, reflecting a 44% year-on-year increase [1][6] - The report attributes the robust demand to three core driving forces, although specific details on these forces are not provided in the excerpts [1][6] Group 3: Economic Indicators from Japan - Japan's core CPI (excluding fresh food) rose by 2.0% year-on-year in January, below the expected 2.2% and previous value of 2.3% [2][7] - The overall CPI, excluding fresh food and energy, increased by 2.4%, also falling short of the anticipated 2.6% [2][7] - A significant decline in energy prices, particularly a 14.8% drop in gasoline prices, is noted as a major factor contributing to the easing inflationary pressures [2][7]

Group 1: Canadian Central Bank and Economic Outlook - The Bank of Canada announced to maintain the benchmark interest rate at 2.25%, aligning with market expectations and economists' forecasts [1][6] - Governor Macklem indicated high uncertainty regarding the duration of the current pause on interest rate changes and the direction of future policy adjustments [1][6] - Macklem noted that the Canadian economy is adapting to structural challenges posed by U.S. protectionism, making it difficult to predict the timing and direction of the next interest rate change [1][6] Group 2: U.S. Treasury and Currency Market - U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bentsen denied any consideration of selling dollars to buy yen to assist Japan in stabilizing its currency, reaffirming a long-standing "strong dollar policy" [1][6] - Bentsen's statements quickly quelled market speculation about potential U.S.-Japan currency intervention, emphasizing that the strengthening of the dollar should rely on structural improvements rather than administrative interventions [1][7] Group 3: Market Data and Economic Indicators - Key economic data to watch includes the Eurozone's January Economic Sentiment Index, January Consumer Confidence Index final value, U.S. November Trade Balance, initial jobless claims for the week ending January 24, November Factory Orders month-on-month, and November Wholesale Inventories final value [2][7]

Group 1 - The core expectation is that the Federal Reserve may only lower interest rates twice in the next two years, despite President Trump's upcoming appointment of a new Fed chair [1][6] - The average expectation among respondents is for two rate cuts of 25 basis points each this year, bringing the target range for the federal funds rate down to 3%–3.25% [1][6] - Trump's pressure on the Fed to lower rates significantly is noted, with his desire for rates to be among the lowest globally, aiming for a rate of 1% in a context of approximately 2% inflation [1][6] Group 2 - The U.S. Consumer Confidence Index unexpectedly dropped to its lowest level since May 2014, impacting market confidence in the labor market and growth prospects [2][7] - The index fell from a revised 94.2 to 84.5, marking a significant decline and below all economists' forecasts [2][7] - The drop in consumer confidence is seen as a key driver in reversing recent trends in the bond market, with expectations for two rate cuts by the Fed being reinforced [2][7] Group 3 - Gold prices surged to a new historical high, trading around 5260, supported by a weak dollar and heightened risk aversion due to trade tensions [3][8] - The dollar index is nearing a four-year low, influenced by Trump's comments on the dollar and concerns over a potential government shutdown [3][8] Group 4 - The USD/JPY pair fell significantly, reaching a 13-week low around 152.70, driven by trade tensions and concerns over the Fed's independence [4][9] - The USD/CAD pair also declined, hitting a six-month low around 1.3590, influenced by multiple negative factors including rising oil prices [5][10]

Group 1: Economic Outlook - Philadelphia Fed President Anna Paulsen indicated that a modest further rate cut may be appropriate in late 2026, depending on whether the economic conditions remain favorable [1][7] - Paulsen noted that inflation is cooling and the labor market is stabilizing, with an expected economic growth rate of about 2% for the year [1][7] - David Rosenberg, a former Merrill Lynch analyst, expressed concerns that the U.S. economy will face significant challenges in 2026, predicting a sharp contraction in the job market [2][8] Group 2: Labor Market Insights - Paulsen highlighted that risks in the labor market remain elevated, with a slowdown in labor demand outpacing the reduction in labor supply due to tightened immigration policies [1][7] - Rosenberg forecasted that the unemployment rate could exceed 5% soon and potentially test 6% by the end of the year, contrasting with the general consensus among Wall Street economists [2][8] Group 3: Monetary Policy Expectations - Paulsen acknowledged that tariffs may continue to push inflation higher in the first half of 2026, but she expects commodity inflation to align with the 2% target in the second half [1][7] - Rosenberg suggested that the collapse of the labor market and subsequent recession could force the Federal Reserve to cut rates by 125 basis points to 2.25% by the end of the year [2][8]

Group 1: Federal Reserve Insights - Cleveland Fed President Beth Hammack stated that there is no need for interest rate adjustments in the coming months after three consecutive rate cuts by the Fed [1][7] - Hammack emphasized that the current benchmark interest rate of 3.5% to 3.75% can be maintained until clearer evidence of inflation returning to target levels or significant weakness in the job market is observed [1][7] - She noted that the recent inflation data for November may underestimate the price increases over the past year due to distortions caused by the government shutdown in October and early November [1][7] Group 2: Canadian Retail Sales - As the holiday season approaches, Canadian retail sales are expected to rebound, with November sales projected to increase by 1.2% compared to October, marking the strongest growth since June [2][8] - October retail sales had decreased by 0.2%, adjusted for seasonality, amounting to 69.44 billion CAD, approximately 50.39 billion USD [2][8] - The forecast for November is based on responses from 60% of surveyed retailers and will be revised, indicating a strong start for retailers during a critical sales period, including Black Friday [2][8] Group 3: Market Movements - Gold prices experienced slight gains due to ongoing expectations of Fed rate cuts in 2026 and increased market risk aversion amid geopolitical tensions [4][9] - The USD/JPY pair surged past the 157.00 mark, reaching a four-week high, supported by a cooling expectation for further rate hikes from the Bank of Japan [5][10] - The USD/CAD pair also saw an upward trend, reaching a six-day high, influenced by a rebound in the USD index and weak economic data from Canada [6][11]

Group 1: US Employment Data - The number of initial jobless claims in the US for the week ending December 13 fell to 224,000, down from 237,000 the previous week, and below economists' expectations of 225,000 [1][6] - The four-week moving average of jobless claims increased slightly to 217,500, indicating a "moderate fluctuation" in the overall data during the holiday season [1][6] - Continuing claims for unemployment benefits rose to 1.897 million, better than the market expectation of 1.93 million, with the four-week average revised to 1.902 million from a previous value of 1.838 million [1][6] Group 2: Japanese Monetary Policy - The Bank of Japan announced a 25 basis point interest rate hike to 0.75%, marking the second increase this year and the highest level since September 1995 [2][6] - The central bank noted that the trend of moderate wage and price increases is expected to continue, with reduced uncertainty from US economic and trade policies [2][6] - The Bank of Japan emphasized that if inflation targets are met, it will continue to raise policy rates and adjust monetary easing [2][7] Group 3: Gold Market - Gold prices experienced slight declines, trading around 4327, influenced by profit-taking and strong US employment data [3][8] - US inflation data falling short of market expectations diminished gold's appeal as an inflation hedge [3][8] - Key resistance for gold is noted at 4360, with support around 4300 [3][8] Group 4: Currency Markets - The USD/JPY pair saw slight declines, trading around 155.90, influenced by technical selling near the 156.00 level and weak US inflation data [4][9] - The USD/CAD pair also experienced slight declines, trading around 1.3780, affected by technical selling near 1.3800 and weak US inflation data [5][10] - Key resistance for USD/JPY is at 157.00, with support at 155.00, while for USD/CAD, resistance is at 1.3850 and support at 1.3700 [4][5][9][10]

Group 1 - Federal Reserve Governor Milan reiterated that the Fed's policy stance imposes unnecessary restrictions on the economy, suggesting that the "underlying" inflation level is close to the Fed's target after excluding "phantom inflation" [1][6][7] - Milan emphasized that U.S. households' pain from recent inflation is reasonable, stating that while prices are at higher levels, they have stabilized, and monetary policy should reflect this reality [1][6] - He warned that maintaining unnecessary tight policies could lead to unemployment, asserting that underlying inflation is running below 2.3%, within the target range of 2% [1][6][7] Group 2 - S&P Global reported that U.S. business activity continued to expand in December, but the pace of expansion slowed to the lowest in six months, with a cost input measure reaching a three-year high [2][7] - The preliminary Markit PMI data for December showed a composite PMI of 53, below the expected 53.9 and previous 54.2, with manufacturing PMI at 51.8 and services PMI at 52.9, both lower than expectations [2][7] - Despite the slowdown, the survey data indicates a projected annualized GDP growth rate of about 2.5% for the fourth quarter, although growth has decelerated for two consecutive months [2][7]