今日需要关注的数据有，欧元区1月Sentix投资者信心指数和美国12月ISM制造业PMI。 黄金/美元 上周五黄金震荡盘整，日线微幅收涨，现汇价交投于4405附近。除空头回补对黄金构成了一定的支撑 外，美联储的降息预期仍存也对黄金构成了一定的支撑。此外，地缘紧张局势挥之不去激发的避险情绪 也是支撑避险黄金走高的重要因素。今日关注4450附近的压力情况，下方支撑在4350附近。 美元/日元 上周五美元/日元震荡盘整，日线微幅收涨，现汇价交投于157.10附近。除美元指数在良好经济数据等 利好因素的支撑下持续反弹对汇价构成一定的支撑外，日本央行加息的预期有所降温也对汇价构成了一 定的支撑。不过，日本央行再次干预汇市的担忧限制了汇价的上升空间。今日关注158.00附近的压力情 况，下方支撑在156.00附近。 美元/加元 1月5日，费城联储主席安娜·保尔森表示，2026年晚些时候可能适合进行幅度不大的进一步降息，但这 一前景取决于经济形势是否保持温和有利。 保尔森在表示："我看到通胀正在降温，劳动力市场趋于稳 定，今年的经济增长率约为2%。如果这些情况都能实现，那么在今年晚些时候对联邦基金利率进行一 些温和的进一步 ...

12月22日，克利夫兰联储主席贝丝·哈玛克表示，在美联储过去三次会议上连续降息之后，她认为未来 几个月没有任何调整利率的必要。"我的基本预期是，我们可以将利率维持在当前水平一段时间，直到 我们获得更明确的证据，表明通胀正在回落到目标水平，或者就业市场出现更实质性的疲软，"她在上 周四接受《华尔街日报》"应对本周"播客采访时如此表示。 哈玛克称，上周发布的11月份通胀数据看 似良好，但由于10月及11月上半月的政府停摆造成了数据收集的扭曲，该数据很可能低估了过去12个月 的价格涨幅。哈玛克暗示，美联储至少在明年春季之前，不需要调整其目前处于3.5%至3.75%区间的基 准利率。她表示，到那时，美联储将能够更好地评估，随着关税的影响在供应链中得到更充分的消化， 近期的商品价格通胀是否正在消退。 另外，随着假日季的临近，加拿大人纷纷涌入商店购物，初步统计数据显示，继近期销售疲软之后，11 月销售额出现反弹。加拿大统计局周五表示，11月份零售额预计较10月增长1.2%。这将是自6月份以来 最强劲的增长。10月份零售额环比下降0.2%，经季节性调整后为694.4亿加元，约合503.9亿美元。9月 份的零售销售月率向下修 ...

美元/日元昨日震荡下行，日线小幅收跌。除156.00关口附近所形成的技术面卖盘对汇价构成了一定的 打压外，时段内美国表现疲软的通胀数据也对汇价构成了一定的打压。亚市早盘，日本央行加息"靴子 落地"，美元/日元小幅上行，现汇价交投于155.90附近。今日关注157.00附近的压力情况，下方支撑在 155.00附近。 美元/加元 美元/加元昨日震荡下行，日线小幅收跌，现汇价交投于1.3780附近。除1.3800关口附近所形成的技术面 卖盘对汇价构成了一定的打压外，时段内美国表现疲软的通胀数据也对汇价构成了一定的打压。不过， 原油价格回落和美元指数走高限制了汇价的下跌空间。今日关注1.3850附近的压力情况，下方支撑在 1.3700附近。 责任编辑：陈平 12月19日，最新数据显示，美国12月13日当周首次申请失业救济人数降至22.4万人，较前一周23.7万回 落1.3万，低于经济学家预期的22.5万人。同步的4周均值小幅走高至21.75万，显示在假期季节性扰动 下，整体仍维持在"温和波动"的区间内。近几周来，失业金申请人数波动较大，反映出感恩节假期前后 数据调整的挑战。截至12月6日当周，续请失业救济人数升至18 ...

美元/日元 12月17日，美联储理事米兰重申，美联储的政策立场对经济构成不必要的限制，认为剔除"幻影通 胀"后，"潜在"的通胀水平已接近联储的目标。在美联储内部对利率政策深度分化之际，坚定支持特朗 普降息呼声的米兰与其他多位联储官员表态形成鲜明对比。 美东时间15日周一，米兰在出席哥伦比亚 大学的活动时表示，美国家庭对近期通胀经历感到痛苦是合理的，物价虽然处于更高的水平但目前已重 新企稳，货币政策应该反映这一现实。他重申美联储应更快降息，警告维持政策不必要的紧缩将导致失 业。 米兰称，剔除住房服务和统计扭曲因素后，潜在通胀正以低于2.3%的速度运行，处于目标2%的噪 音范围内。他指出，住房通胀反映的是两到四年前的供需失衡，而非当前状况。一些通胀驱动因素，如 基于当前高资产价格的投资组合管理费，反映的是统计怪象而非实际消费者价格体验。 另外，周二标普全球公布的数据显示，美国企业活动在12月继续扩张，但扩张速度降至六个月来最慢， 与此同时，一项衡量投入成本的指标跃升至三年多来的最高水平。 12月美国Markit PMI数据的初读如 下，读数高于50意味着经济活动扩张，制造业和服务业调查双双低于预期： 美国12月标 ...

Group 1: Canadian Central Bank Announcement - The Bank of Canada announced to maintain the benchmark interest rate at 2.25%, which aligns with market expectations [1][6] - Recent data indicates that the Canadian economy is more resilient than expected, with the central bank stating that the current rate is suitable to address pressures from trade wars and to stabilize inflation near target levels [1][6] - The central bank emphasized readiness to take measures if the economic outlook changes, with a clear indication that significant economic deterioration would be required to trigger a rate cut [1][6][7] Group 2: Japanese Central Bank Policy Outlook - A former Bank of Japan executive indicated that the Bank of Japan's Governor may raise interest rates four times by 2027, with three hikes expected after the anticipated increase next week [7] - The former official suggested that the Bank of Japan may return to a frequency of rate hikes approximately every six months, with an eventual target rate around 1.5% [7] - Further updates on the interest rate forecast are expected in January when the Bank of Japan releases its quarterly economic outlook [7] Group 3: Market Reactions - The U.S. Federal Reserve's decision to cut rates by 25 basis points, which was less hawkish than market expectations, supported a rise in gold prices, with current trading around 4210 [9] - The USD/JPY pair experienced a decline, falling below the 156.00 mark, influenced by profit-taking and a weaker dollar index following the Fed's rate cut [10] - The USD/CAD pair also saw a decline, dropping below the 1.3800 mark to an 11-week low, impacted by the Fed's rate cut and the Bank of Canada's hawkish signals [11]

12月10日，日本央行行长植田和男表示，央行正逐步接近实现通胀目标，并暗示加息步伐不会仅限于一 次，这为本月晚些时候可能实施的政策转向释放了明确信号。植田和男在周二接受英国《金融时报》采 访时表示，"我们正接近持续性的2%通胀"。他同时指出，央行将持续缓慢调整货币宽松程度，直至实 现持续性2%通胀目标，且政策利率回到自然利率水平。植田和男在媒体采访中表示，央行在再次加息 后不太可能就此结束，因为央行将继续调整对经济的支持力度："央行将继续缓慢调整货币宽松程度， 直到通胀率持续保持在2%以上，并且政策利率回归自然水平为止。无论自然水平是多少。"这一表态暗 示，即使央行在本月加息，货币政策正常化进程仍将延续。市场关注的焦点是植田和男将如何指引未来 的利率路径，以及他对既不刺激也不抑制经济的中性利率水平的判断。 另外，近来被爆料是下任美联储主席头号热门人选的凯文·哈塞特表示，美联储仍有"充足的空间"进一 步降息，但如果通胀上升，情况可能会有所改变。 美东时间9日周二在《华尔街日报》CEO理事会峰会 上，当被问及如果最终出任联储主席，是否会推动总统所期待的"大幅降息"时，目前担任白宫国家经济 委员会主任的哈塞特表示： ...

12月4日，美国最新公布的ADP就业数据显示，11月私营企业减少3.2万个工作岗位，为2023年3月以来 最大降幅，远逊于市场预期的增加4万个岗位。这一数据凸显在美联储政策转向关键时刻，就业市场面 临的压力正在加大。小型企业成为裁员重灾区。员工数少于50人的小型企业合计减少12万个岗位，其中 20至49人规模的企业裁员7.4万人。相比之下，50人以上的大型企业净增9万个岗位，劳动力市场呈现明 显分化。周三，美国商务部长卢特尼克接受采访时，否认总统特朗普的关税政策是造成11月份私营部门 就业人数下降的原因，他辩称是美国政府停摆暂时减缓了小企业的活动。美国政府大规模遣返非法移民 的举措也抑制了就业数据。 美元/日元昨日震荡下行，日线小幅收跌，现汇价交投于155.50附近。除美联储12月份的降息预期持续 对汇价构成打压外，时段内美国表现疲软的"小非农"报告也对汇价构成了一定的打压。此外，对日本央 行的加息预期重燃也对汇价构成了一定的打压。今日关注156.50附近的压力情况，下方支撑在154.50附 近。 美元/加元 美元/加元昨日震荡下行，日线小幅收跌，现汇价交投于1.3960附近。除美元指数在疲软经济数据和美 联 ...

Group 1: Federal Reserve's Interest Rate Decisions - Several Federal Reserve regional presidents expressed dissatisfaction with the decision to lower interest rates, indicating a growing internal division regarding future rate paths [1] - Dallas Fed President Logan stated that she does not see the necessity for a rate cut unless inflation significantly decreases or the labor market cools down [1] - Cleveland Fed President Harmack criticized the rate cut, suggesting that current rates are close to neutral and further cuts could undermine efforts to bring inflation back to the 2% target [1] Group 2: Economic Indicators and Concerns - Atlanta Fed President Bostic emphasized the need for Powell to demonstrate the internal disagreements to prevent market misinterpretation of the rate path [1] - Fed Governor Waller advocated for a rate cut in December, citing concerns over the labor market and downplaying the inflationary risks from tariffs [2] - Waller noted that the Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) inflation rate is approximately 2.5%, indicating it is not far from the target [2] Group 3: Market Reactions - Gold prices experienced slight declines due to hawkish Fed decisions and reduced expectations for a December rate cut, alongside easing trade tensions [3] - The USD/JPY pair saw a slight decline influenced by profit-taking and expectations of intervention by the Bank of Japan, despite strong CPI data [4] - The USD/CAD pair rose slightly, supported by hawkish Fed sentiments and weak Canadian GDP data, although rising oil prices limited its upward movement [5]

Group 1: Banking Sector Performance - The banking sector showed strong performance in the afternoon, with notable increases in shares of Shanghai Pudong Development Bank (SPDB) and Nanjing Bank, both rising over 5% [1] - SPDB announced that Dongfang Asset increased its stake in the bank through the secondary market by purchasing common shares and convertible bonds [1] Group 2: Stock Market Data - SPDB's stock opened at 12.55, with a high of 12.54 and a low of 11.78, achieving a trading volume of 1.52 million shares and a total transaction value of 1.861 billion [2] - Nanjing Bank's stock opened at 11.35, reaching a high of 11.36 and a low of 10.79, with a trading volume of 776,000 shares and a total transaction value of 859 million [3] Group 3: Port and Shipping Sector - The port and shipping sector experienced localized fluctuations, with Nanjing Port hitting the daily limit up [5] - Other companies in the sector, such as Lianyungang and China National Offshore Oil Corporation, also saw significant price increases [5] Group 4: Gold Market Activity - Spot gold prices surged, breaking through $4,070 per ounce, leading to a rebound in Hong Kong gold stocks, with companies like Chifeng Jilong Gold and Zijin Mining rising over 6% [8] - Gold futures also showed significant gains, with Shanghai gold rising by 2% to 927.66 yuan per gram [11] Group 5: Market Indices - As of the latest update, major indices showed a narrowing decline, with the Shanghai Composite Index at 3,874.24 points, down 0.58%, and the Shenzhen Component Index at 13,119.42 points, down 1.77% [16]

Group 1: Gold Market - Spot gold decreased by 0.10%, with resistance levels at 3381, 3384, and 3393, while support levels are at 3370, 3366, and 3360. A short position is favored near 3349.5 [1] Group 2: Silver Market - Spot silver increased by 0.18%, with resistance levels at 38.00 and 38.35, while support levels are at 37.68 and 37.42. A long position is favored near 38.24 [2][3] Group 3: Crude Oil Market - Spot crude oil rose by 0.64%, with resistance levels at 66.35, 67.00, and 68.00, while support levels are at 65.00, 64.10, and 63.00. The current spot price is approximately $0.50 higher than WTI crude oil futures [3][5] Group 4: Currency Market - The GBP/USD pair increased by 0.03%, with resistance levels at 1.3315, 1.3340, and 1.3363, while support levels are at 1.3280, 1.3265, and 1.3240. A long position is favored near 1.3323 [9][10] - The USD/JPY pair decreased by 0.03%, with resistance levels at 147.68, 147.93, and 148.18, while support levels are at 147.25, 147.10, and 146.85. A short position is favored near 147.28 [11]