Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Core Viewpoints - Due to the expansion of concerns about the global economic downturn risk caused by mutual tariff imposition between China and the US, crude oil prices have significantly weakened recently and are consolidating at a low level, and the macro - expectation has also turned significantly weaker. In the short term, polyester demand still has resilience, and the transmission speed of terminal negative feedback is slower than expected. Under the pessimistic demand expectation, the main recent gaming point will revolve around whether ethane - based ethylene glycol can bring about a reduction in supply [3]. - There are both positive and negative factors in the market. Positive factors include the market's expectation of trade dispute mitigation, expected import reduction in May and June, and high polyester load with a slight reduction in filament inventory and eased inventory pressure. Negative factors include the impact of US tariff hikes on terminal textile and clothing export demand and high hidden inventory in ethylene glycol factories [4][7]. Summary by Related Catalogs Polyester Price Interval Forecast - **Price Ranges**: The monthly price ranges are 3900 - 4500 for ethylene glycol, 5800 - 6600 for PX, 4100 - 4800 for PTA, and 5400 - 6100 for bottle chips [2]. - **Volatility and Percentiles**: The current 20 - day rolling volatilities are 30.73% for ethylene glycol, 44.15% for PX, 39.28% for PTA, and 31.25% for bottle chips, with their 3 - year historical percentiles being 91.3%, 99.4%, 93.6%, and 98.6% respectively [2]. Polyester Hedging Strategy - **Inventory Management**: When the finished product inventory is high and there are concerns about the decline in ethylene glycol prices, strategies include short - selling ethylene glycol futures (25% at 4250 - 4350), buying put options (50% at 70 - 90) and selling call options (50% at 90 - 110) [2]. - **Procurement Management**: When the regular procurement inventory is low and procurement is based on orders, strategies include buying ethylene glycol futures (50% at 4000 - 4100), selling put options (75% at 130 - 150) [2]. Price and Spread Data - **Prices**: From April 21 to April 28, 2025, prices of various polyester - related products such as Brent crude oil, PX contracts, PTA contracts, etc., showed different degrees of changes. For example, Brent crude oil rose from 65.3 to 65.8 dollars per barrel [5][8]. - **Spreads**: There were also changes in various spreads such as TA1 - 5 month spread, EG1 - 5 month spread, etc. For example, the TA1 - 5 month spread changed from 56 to - 60 yuan per ton [8]. - **Warehouse Receipts**: PTA, MEG, and PX warehouse receipts also changed. For example, PTA warehouse receipts decreased from 131530 to 109778 [8]. - **Processing Fees and Profits**: Processing fees and profits of different products showed different trends. For example, POY profit increased from - 2 to 11 yuan per ton, while DTY profit decreased from 125 to 75 yuan per ton [8]. - **Sales Ratios**: The sales ratios of polyester filament and short - fiber also changed. The polyester filament sales ratio increased from 35.8% to 94.7%, while the polyester short - fiber sales ratio decreased from 87% to 74% [8].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - Due to the US-China tariff war, concerns about a global economic slowdown have grown, causing crude oil prices to weaken and stay low, and macroeconomic expectations to deteriorate. In the short term, pessimistic macro expectations may accelerate the implementation of polyester production cuts, and the main point of contention will be whether ethane-based ethylene glycol can reduce supply [3]. - The US tariff hikes have further impacted the export demand for terminal textiles and clothing, with an expected acceleration of the negative feedback effect. The high hidden inventory of ethylene glycol factories makes it difficult to achieve effective inventory reduction in April [4]. - The profit of ethane-based ethylene glycol is expected to be significantly in the red due to domestic counter-tariffs, and there is a possibility of plant shutdowns. The maintenance plans for coal-based ethylene glycol have been implemented, along with some unexpected maintenance, leading to a significant reduction in supply [7]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Polyester Price Range Forecast - **Price Ranges**: Ethylene glycol is forecasted to be in the range of 3800 - 4400, PX at 5500 - 6200, PTA at 3900 - 4500, and bottle chips at 5100 - 5700. - **Volatility**: The current 20 - day rolling volatility for ethylene glycol is 30.73% (91.3% historical percentile over 3 years), PX is 44.15% (99.4%), PTA is 39.28% (93.6%), and bottle chips is 31.25% (98.6%) [2]. Polyester Hedging Strategy - **Inventory Management**: For high finished - product inventory and fear of ethylene glycol price drops, short ethylene glycol futures (25% EG2506 and 50% EG2506P4100) or buy put options and sell call options (50% EG2506P4100 and 50% EG2506C4300). - **Procurement Management**: For low procurement inventory, buy ethylene glycol futures (50% EG2506) or sell put options (75% EG2506P4100) [2]. Price and Spread Data - **Prices**: On April 18, 2025, Brent crude was not available, while other products like naphtha CFR Japan, PX contracts, TA contracts, etc., had specific price values and changes compared to previous days and weeks. - **Spreads**: TA, EG, PF, and PX had various basis and month - to - month spreads with corresponding changes [5][7]. - **Processing Fees**: Different products such as gasoline reforming, aromatics reforming, etc., had specific processing fees and their daily and weekly changes [7].