聚酯产业风险管理日报 ——EG供需承压格局难改 2025/11/19 戴一帆（投资咨询证号：Z0015428） 研究助理：周嘉伟（期货从业证号：F03133676） 投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1290号 聚酯价格区间预测 | | 价格区间预测（月度） | 当前波动率（20日滚动） | 当前波动率历史百分位（3年） | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 乙二醇 | 3750-4200 | 15.19% | 26.4% | | PX | 6300-7100 | 14.65% | 37.0% | | PTA | 4300-4900 | 13.86% | 23.8% | | 瓶片 | 5400-6000 | 10.84% | 27.6% | source： 南华研究,同花顺 【核心矛盾】 总体来看，乙二醇需求端变化不大，聚酯需求11月预计维持在91%附近，12月起随季节性走弱。近期供 应端装置意外较多，后续累库斜率有所缓和，在价格上与11月9日的周报观点一致，动力煤走势偏强的背景下 成本端支撑加强，表现为3900下方继续破位下跌难度变大。但长期来看，累库斜率放缓与兑现推迟均为节奏 问 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core View of the Report - The fundamental supply - demand of ethylene glycol has a marginal improvement, but the valuation is under pressure. The expectation of inventory accumulation suppresses the valuation, and the recent macro - impact will dominate the market trend. The overall unilateral trend has high uncertainty. The long - term inventory accumulation expectation makes ethylene glycol a short - position asset. However, the cash flow of coal - based marginal ethylene glycol plants has been compressed below the cost line, and there may be strong supply - side support at the 3700 level. In the short term, ethylene glycol will digest macro - negatives, with the expected price range shifting down to 3850 - 4250. In case of over - decline due to panic, one can consider selling EG2601 - P - 3850 when the price is above 50 [3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Polyester Price Range Forecast - The monthly price range forecasts are: ethylene glycol 3800 - 4300, PX 6000 - 6800, PTA 4250 - 4750, and bottle chips 5300 - 5900. The current 20 - day rolling volatilities are 11.86%, 13.59%, 13.87%, and 11.18% respectively, and their 3 - year historical percentile volatilities are 11.9%, 32.3%, 23.9%, and 31.4% [2]. Polyester Hedging Strategy Inventory Management - For high finished - product inventory and concern about ethylene glycol price decline, with a long spot position, one can short ethylene glycol futures (EG2601) at 4200 - 4300 with a 25% hedging ratio to lock in profits and make up for production costs. Also, buy put options (EG2601P3850) and sell call options (EG2601C4250) with a 50% hedging ratio to prevent price drops and reduce capital costs [2]. Procurement Management - For low procurement inventory and hope to purchase according to orders, with a short spot position, one can buy ethylene glycol futures (EG2601) at 3900 - 4000 with a 50% hedging ratio to lock in procurement costs. Sell put options (EG2601P3850) with a 75% hedging ratio to collect premiums and lock in the purchase price if the price drops [2]. Core Contradiction - Ethylene glycol's supply - demand has marginal improvement, but the valuation is under pressure due to inventory accumulation expectations. Demand has a marginal improvement with winter orders, but the "weak peak season" expectation is hard to reverse. The near - end inventory is low, and the inventory accumulation before the end of October is limited. The macro - impact will dominate the market, and the long - term inventory accumulation expectation makes ethylene glycol a short - position asset. However, the cost - support at 3700 is expected if the valuation is further compressed. In the short term, it will digest macro - negatives, with the price range shifting down [3]. 利多解读 (Likely a typo for "Positive Factors Analysis") - The US adding port service fees to relevant Chinese ships since October 14, 2025, will increase the cost of ethane - based ethylene glycol, but the short - term impact on supply is limited. The rising price of thermal coal compresses the profit of coal - based marginal plants to below the cost line, strengthening the cost - support [6]. 利空解读 (Negative Factors Analysis) - The US's plan to impose a 100% new tariff on Chinese imports from November 1, announced on October 11, intensifies the Sino - US trade conflict, leading to a pessimistic macro - sentiment and a weak market [7]. Polyester Daily Report Table - It shows the prices, price differences, inventory levels, processing fees, and production - sales ratios of various polyester products on October 17, 2025, compared with previous dates, reflecting the market changes of the polyester industry [9][10].

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - The fundamental drivers for ethylene glycol (EG) in the near - term are insufficient. Under the expectation of continuous inventory accumulation after October, it has become a concentrated short - allocation for funds. With new production capacity coming online, the inventory accumulation expectation for the fourth quarter has advanced and expanded, and the valuation has been further pressured under front - running trades. Since the inventory accumulation expectation has been mostly priced in, it is not recommended to continue shorting before the expectation is realized. - The supply side of EG is operating at full capacity, with little chance of unexpected incremental supply and overall lacking supply elasticity. Considering the low inventory, relatively low valuation, and lack of supply elasticity of EG, the short - term downward price space is limited. However, if there are unexpected drivers from the supply side or the macro - environment, the upward price movement will be more elastic. - Currently, the supply - demand drivers for EG are limited, and it is expected to oscillate in the range of 4150 - 4350. A breakout requires cost - side and macro - level drivers. In terms of operations, due to short - term emotional suppression leading to an oversold situation, there is price support, and one can moderately sell out - of - the - money put options [3]. 3. Section Summaries 3.1 Polyester Price and Volatility - The monthly price range forecasts are as follows: EG is 4150 - 4450, PX is 6400 - 7100, PTA is 4400 - 5000, and bottle chips are 5600 - 6200. The current 20 - day rolling volatilities are 9.75% for EG, 12.56% for PX, 12.61% for PTA, and 9.81% for bottle chips. Their 3 - year historical percentile volatilities are 3.2%, 27.4%, 19.0%, and 13.4% respectively [2]. 3.2 Polyester Hedging Strategies - **Inventory Management**: For enterprises with high finished - product inventory worried about EG price drops, they can short EG2601 futures to lock in profits and make up for production costs, with a hedging ratio of 25% and an entry range of 4320 - 4420. They can also buy EG2601P4100 put options to prevent large price drops and sell EG2601C4500 call options to reduce capital costs, with a hedging ratio of 50% and entry ranges of 20 - 30 and 50 - 80 respectively [2]. - **Procurement Management**: For enterprises with low regular procurement inventory aiming to purchase based on orders, they can buy EG2601 futures at present to lock in procurement costs in advance, with a hedging ratio of 50% and an entry range of 4180 - 4250. They can also sell EG2601P4100 put options to collect premiums and lower procurement costs. If the EG price drops, they can lock in the spot purchase price, with a hedging ratio of 75% and an entry range of 50 - 80 [2]. 3.3 Market Data - **Price Data**: On September 26, 2025, Brent crude oil was at $68.8 per barrel, up $0.2 from the previous day; Naphtha CFR Japan was at $608.5 per ton, up $2.5. There were various price changes for other products such as PX, PTA, EG, and polyester fibers [6][10]. - **Spread Data**: TA main - contract basis was - 51 yuan/ton, up 27 yuan/ton from the previous day; EG main - contract basis was 79 yuan/ton, up 14 yuan/ton. There were also changes in month - to - month spreads for PX, PTA, and EG [10]. - **Processing Fee and Production - Sales Rate**: The gasoline reforming spread was $29 per ton, up $4 from the previous day; POY profit was 121 yuan/ton, up 36 yuan/ton. The production - sales rates of polyester filaments, short - fibers, and slices all showed different degrees of change [10]. 3.4 Market News - The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology and six other departments issued the "Work Plan for Stable Growth of the Petrochemical and Chemical Industry (2025 - 2026)", with a limited expected impact on the EG supply side, and further details need to be monitored [4]. - The increase in thermal coal prices has compressed the profit of coal - based marginal plants to below the cost line, strengthening cost support. A 750,000 - ton/year EG plant in Malaysia has shut down due to technical issues, with an undetermined restart time, potentially reducing imports in October. A 400,000 - ton/year EG plant in Fujian plans to shut down for about two weeks in October, and a 200,000 - ton EG plant in Ningxia Kunpeng plans to start trial production at the end of October [9].

Report Overview - Report Title: Polyester Industry Risk Management Daily - Cost and Sentiment Double Blow, Prices Weakening - Date: September 19, 2025 - Analysts: Dai Yifan, Zhou Jiawei 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided 2. Report's Core View - The ethylene glycol market currently has limited supply - demand drivers and is expected to oscillate in the range of 4200 - 4400. Price breakthroughs depend on cost - side and macro - drivers. With short - term sentiment causing an over - decline, there is price support, and it is advisable to moderately sell out - of - the - money put options [3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Contents Polyester Price and Volatility - The monthly price ranges for different polyester products are: ethylene glycol 4150 - 4450, PX 6300 - 7000, PTA 4400 - 5000, and bottle chips 5500 - 6100. The 20 - day rolling current volatilities are 9.62% for ethylene glycol, 11.03% for PX, 10.04% for PTA, and 7.59% for bottle chips. Their 3 - year historical percentile of current volatility are 2.5%, 7.8%, 7.2%, and 0.8% respectively [2]. Polyester Hedging Strategies Inventory Management - For high finished - product inventory and concerns about ethylene glycol price drops, with a long spot exposure, it is recommended to short ethylene glycol futures (EG2601) with a 25% hedging ratio at an entry range of 4320 - 4420 to lock in profits and cover production costs. Also, buy put options (EG2601P4100) and sell call options (EG2601C4500) with a 50% hedging ratio at entry ranges of 20 - 30 and 50 - 80 respectively to prevent price drops and reduce capital costs [2]. Procurement Management - For low procurement inventory and purchasing based on orders, with a short spot exposure, it is recommended to buy ethylene glycol futures (EG2601) with a 50% hedging ratio at an entry range of 4180 - 4250 to lock in procurement costs. Sell put options (EG2601P4100) with a 75% hedging ratio at an entry range of 50 - 80 to collect premiums and lock in the purchase price of spot ethylene glycol [2]. Core Contradiction of Ethylene Glycol - Ethylene glycol has limited fundamental drivers recently. Under the expectation of continuous inventory accumulation after October, it has become a concentrated short - position target for funds. The inventory accumulation expectation in the fourth quarter is advanced and magnified due to new capacity, putting pressure on valuation. With much of the inventory - accumulation expectation already priced in, chasing short positions is not recommended before its realization. The supply side has no significant incremental capacity, lacking supply elasticity. Considering low inventory, low valuation, and inelastic supply, the short - term downward space is limited, while upward price movement is more elastic with unexpected drivers. It is expected to oscillate between 4200 - 4400, and price breakthroughs depend on cost and macro - drivers [3]. 利多解读 (Positive Factors) - The increase in thermal coal prices has compressed the profit of marginal coal - based production units to near the cost line [4]. 利空解读 (Negative Factors) - The 200,000 - ton ethylene glycol plant of Ningxia Kunpeng is planned to start trial production at the end of October, and its progress should be monitored. The new 800,000 - ton ethylene glycol capacity of Yulong is expected to be put into operation ahead of schedule at the end of September or early October, with an additional 50,000 - 60,000 tons of output in October [6]. Polyester Daily Data - The report provides price, price difference, processing fee, and sales rate data for various polyester - related products such as Brent crude oil, naphtha, PX, PTA, ethylene glycol, polyester filaments, and polyester chips on September 19, 2025, compared with previous days and weeks [8][9].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - Ethylene glycol's recent fundamental drivers are limited. It was relatively resistant to price drops due to low inventory, but with the cooling of the chemical sector sentiment and lack of policy support, it has seen a compensatory decline. However, considering its low inventory, low valuation, and inelastic supply, it is expected to remain in an upward - biased trend. In the short - term, it oscillates in the 4350 - 4550 range, mainly following the cost side and commodity sentiment. It is recommended to buy on dips within the range. In the long - term, the performance of the downstream polyester peak season needs to be observed, and long positions can be combined with selling out - of - the - money near - month call options for covered operations [3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Polyester Price Range Forecast - Ethylene glycol price range (monthly) is 4300 - 4700, with a current 20 - day rolling volatility of 9.09% and a 3 - year historical percentile of 1.4%. - PX price range (monthly) is 6500 - 7400, with a current 20 - day rolling volatility of 11.78% and a 3 - year historical percentile of 17.7%. - PTA price range (monthly) is 4400 - 5300, with a current 20 - day rolling volatility of 9.30% and a 3 - year historical percentile of 4.6%. - Bottle chip price range (monthly) is 5800 - 6500, with a current 20 - day rolling volatility of 7.92% and a 3 - year historical percentile of 0.9% [2]. 3.2 Polyester Hedging Strategy **Inventory Management**: - For high finished - product inventory and concerns about ethylene glycol price drops, sell EG2601 futures with a 25% hedging ratio in the 4500 - 4600 range to lock in profits. - Buy EG2510P4400 put options and sell EG2510C4500 call options with a 50% hedging ratio in the 20 - 30 range to prevent large price drops and reduce capital costs [2]. **Procurement Management**: - For low procurement inventory and the need to lock in procurement costs, buy EG2601 futures with a 50% hedging ratio in the 4350 - 4400 range. - Sell EG2510P4350 put options with a 75% hedging ratio in the 18 - 30 range to collect premiums and lock in the purchase price if the price drops [2]. 3.3利多解读 - This week's planned arrivals are 11.01 tons, relatively low. Next Monday, port inventory is expected to decrease by about 1.5 tons, tightening spot liquidity. - Houthi attacks on Red Sea cruise ships led to an afternoon increase in oil prices, but the cost - side support was limited, and EG rebounded slightly before falling again [5]. 3.4利空解读 - Weaving terminal demand has shown a phased decline, with limited new orders. High temperatures in Jiangsu and Zhejiang have led to a slight decrease in loom operation rates. - Due to poor production efficiency and order intake, bottle chip factories have cancelled production increase plans, limiting polyester's production increase in September [6]. 3.5 Polyester Daily Data - Includes price data (such as Brent crude oil, PX, PTA, etc.), price differences (such as TA1 - 5 month spread, EG1 - 5 month spread), and processing fees (such as gasoline reforming spread, aromatics reforming spread) for different time points (2025 - 09 - 01, 2025 - 08 - 29, 2025 - 08 - 25) and their daily and weekly changes [8][9].

Group 1: Report Summary - The report is a daily risk management report on the polyester industry dated August 29, 2025 [1][3] - It focuses on ethylene glycol in the polyester industry, analyzing its supply - demand, market trends, and providing trading strategies [5] Group 2: Investment Rating - There is no report industry investment rating mentioned in the content Group 3: Core Viewpoint - Ethylene glycol has no obvious fundamental drivers currently. In the short - term, commodity sentiment is expected to face a correction during the policy vacuum period. However, due to low inventory, neutral valuation, and inelastic supply, it is expected to maintain an upward - biased trend, oscillating between 4350 - 4550. Trading strategy is to go long on dips within the range, and for the medium - to - long - term, observe the peak season performance of downstream polyester. Long positions can be combined with selling near - month out - of - the - money call options for covered call operations [5] Group 4: Polyester Price and Volatility - The monthly price range forecast for ethylene glycol is 4300 - 4700, with a current 20 - day rolling volatility of 9.09% and a 3 - year historical percentile of 1.4%; for PX it is 6500 - 7400, with a volatility of 11.78% and a percentile of 17.7%; for PTA it is 4400 - 5300, with a volatility of 9.30% and a percentile of 4.6%; for bottle chips it is 5800 - 6500, with a volatility of 7.92% and a percentile of 0.9% [4] Group 5: Polyester Hedging Strategy Inventory Management - When the finished - product inventory is high and worried about the decline of ethylene glycol price, sell 25% of EG2601 futures at 4550 - 4700 to lock in profits; buy EG2510P4400 put options and sell EG2510C4600 call options, with a total hedging ratio of 50%, to prevent price drops and reduce capital costs [4] Procurement Management - When the procurement inventory is low, buy 50% of EG2601 futures at 4350 - 4450 to lock in procurement costs; sell 75% of EG2510P4400 put options to collect premiums and lock in the purchase price if the price drops [4] Group 6: Market Drivers Bullish Factors - South Korea's finance minister announced that South Korean petrochemical companies will cut up to 3.7 million tons of naphtha cracking capacity annually, which may impact ethylene glycol raw material supply and ethylene production costs; planned port arrivals this week are 85,100 tons, and next Monday's port inventory is expected to decrease by about 30,000 tons, tightening spot liquidity; loom load has been slightly increasing, with some autumn and winter orders starting in September and foreign trade orders recovering, which is expected to boost the load of filaments and staple fibers [8] Bearish Factors - The total supply load has risen to 73.16% (+6.77%), with ethylene - based and coal - based production loads increasing. Next week, some plants plan to overhaul while others plan to restart and increase load, and the total load is expected to continue to rise [9] Group 7: Price and Related Data Table - The table shows price data of various polyester - related products such as Brent crude oil, PX, PTA, ethylene glycol, etc. on August 29, 2025, August 28, 2025, and August 22, 2025, including daily and weekly changes, as well as data on spreads, processing fees, and production and sales rates [12][13]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The fundamental supply - demand of ethylene glycol remains stable without obvious drivers, but it may rebound due to unexpected factors. Its price is expected to be strong in the short - term, with an easy - to - rise and hard - to - fall trend. The operation strategy is to buy on dips close to the cost end. In the medium - to - long - term, the prosperity of the downstream polyester peak season needs to be observed, and long positions can be hedged by selling near - month out - of - the - money call options [3]. 3. Summary According to Related Catalogs 3.1 Polyester Price Range Forecast | Product | Price Range (Monthly) | Current Volatility (20 - day Rolling) | Current Volatility Historical Percentile (3 years) | | ---- | ---- | ---- | ---- | | Ethylene Glycol | 4200 - 4700 | 9.09% | 1.4% | | PX | 6500 - 7400 | 11.78% | 17.7% | | PTA | 4400 - 5300 | 9.30% | 4.6% | | Bottle Chips | 5800 - 6500 | 7.92% | 0.9% | [2] 3.2 Polyester Hedging Strategy Table - **Inventory Management**: When the finished - product inventory is high and worried about the decline of ethylene glycol price, for long - position spot exposure, sell EG2601 futures with a 25% hedging ratio at 4500 - 4600, buy EG2510P4350 put options, and sell EG2510C4600 call options with a 50% hedging ratio at 30 - 50 to lock in profits and reduce costs [2]. - **Procurement Management**: When the regular procurement inventory is low and procurement is based on orders, for short - position spot exposure, buy EG2601 futures with a 50% hedging ratio at 4250 - 4350, and sell EG2510P4350 put options with a 75% hedging ratio at 30 - 50 to lock in procurement costs and reduce costs [2]. 3.3 Logic Analysis - Ethylene glycol is in a weak supply - demand balance with limited inventory accumulation, and the inventory accumulation expectation has been fully priced. Once there is an unexpected change in supply - demand, it may rebound rapidly [4]. - The coal - based profit of ethylene glycol is compressed by coal prices, and the downward space is limited under stable costs [4]. - The ethylene glycol plants are operating at full capacity, and additional supply is difficult to increase even if the valuation rebounds. Supply losses are difficult to replenish quickly in case of supply accidents [6]. 3.4利多解读 (Likely to be "Positive Factors Analysis" in English) - South Korea plans to cut up to 3.7 million tons of naphtha cracking capacity annually, which may impact the raw material supply and ethylene - based cost of ethylene glycol, pushing up its price [7]. - The planned arrival at the port this week is 965,000 tons, relatively low, and the port inventory is expected to decrease by about 30,000 tons next Monday, tightening spot liquidity [7]. - The load of looms and spinning mills has increased slightly. With the approaching of September, some autumn - winter orders at the terminal have started, which is expected to drive order release and increase the load of filament yarns [7]. - The price of thermal coal has strengthened slightly, further compressing coal - based profits and strengthening cost support [7]. 3.5利空解读 (Likely to be "Negative Factors Analysis" in English) - The total load of ethylene glycol has dropped to 66.39% (- 2.01%), with a decrease in oil - based production and an increase in coal - based production. Some production losses are expected due to short - term shutdowns and restarts of some plants [8]. 3.6 Price, Spread, and Processing Fee Data - The report provides price data of various products such as Brent crude oil, PX, PTA, and ethylene glycol on different dates, as well as their daily and weekly changes [9][10]. - It also includes spread data between different contracts and varieties, and processing fee data of different products, along with their daily and weekly changes [9][10]. - The sales - to - production ratios of polyester products such as polyester filament, polyester staple fiber, and polyester chips are also presented, along with their daily and weekly changes [10].

Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Rating No industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoint The supply - demand of ethylene glycol fundamentals is basically stable, lacking obvious drivers, and the overall price trend is mainly range - bound. Although there is a cumulative inventory trend, the inventory accumulation is limited, and the supply - demand is in a fragile balance. With low inventory, the upward elasticity is expected to be large. Also, the coal - to - ethylene glycol profit has been compressed by coal prices recently, and the downward space is expected to be limited under stable costs. It is recommended to buy ethylene glycol on dips, and the entry timing should focus on commodity sentiment [3]. 3. Other Key Points Polyester Price Range Forecast - The monthly price range forecast for ethylene glycol is 4200 - 4700, with a current 20 - day rolling volatility of 9.09% and a 3 - year historical percentile of 1.4% [2]. - For PX, it is 6500 - 7400, with a volatility of 11.78% and a historical percentile of 17.7% [2]. - For PTA, it is 4400 - 5300, with a volatility of 9.30% and a historical percentile of 4.6% [2]. - For bottle chips, it is 5800 - 6500, with a volatility of 7.92% and a historical percentile of 0.9% [2]. Polyester Hedging Strategies - **Inventory Management**: When the finished - product inventory is high and worried about the decline of ethylene glycol prices, for long - position inventory, it is recommended to short EG2509 futures with a 25% hedging ratio at an entry range of 4450 - 4550. Also, buy EG2509P4350 put options and sell EG2509C4500 call options with a 50% hedging ratio at an entry range of 10 - 15 to prevent price drops and reduce capital costs [2]. - **Procurement Management**: When the procurement inventory is low and hoping to purchase according to orders, for short - position inventory, it is recommended to buy EG2509 futures with a 50% hedging ratio at an entry range of 4300 - 4400. Sell EG2509P4350 put options with a 75% hedging ratio at an entry range of 10 - 30 to reduce procurement costs and lock in the purchase price if the price drops [2]. 利多解读 - On August 4, the Emergency Management Department released the new version of the "Coal Mine Safety Regulations", causing coal prices to rebound and costs to rise [4]. 利空解读 - There is a market rumor that large filament manufacturers' FDY is suffering heavy losses and there are plans to cut production, but the implementation needs further observation [7]. Price and Spread Data - On August 13, 2025, the price of Brent crude oil was 66.1 dollars/barrel, with no daily change and a weekly decrease of 0.8 dollars/barrel [8]. - The price of PX CFR China was 836 dollars/ton, with a daily increase of 2 dollars/ton and a weekly decrease of 8 dollars/ton [8]. - The price of PTA inner - market spot was 4692 yuan/ton, with a daily decrease of 13 yuan/ton and a weekly increase of 17 yuan/ton [8]. - The TA main - contract basis was - 11 yuan/ton, with a daily increase of 11 yuan/ton and a weekly increase of 14 yuan/ton [8]. Processing Fee and Profit Data - The Asian PXN was 266 dollars/ton, with a daily increase of 265.67 dollars/ton and a weekly increase of 3 dollars/ton [9]. - The POY profit was 73 yuan/ton, with a daily decrease of 73 yuan/ton and a weekly decrease of 106 yuan/ton [9]. - The polyester bottle - chip processing fee was 350 yuan/ton, with a daily decrease of 350 yuan/ton and a weekly decrease of 389 yuan/ton [9].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - The supply - demand fundamentals of ethylene glycol (EG) are basically stable, lacking obvious drivers, and its price trend is mainly range - bound. Although there is a cumulative inventory trend, the inventory increase is limited, and the supply - demand is in a fragile balance. With low inventory, the upward elasticity is expected to be large. Also, the coal - based profit has been compressed recently, and the downward space is expected to be limited under stable costs. It is recommended to buy EG on dips, and the entry timing should focus on commodity sentiment [3]. 3. Summary by Related Content Polyester Price and Volatility - The monthly price range forecasts are: 4200 - 4700 for ethylene glycol, 6500 - 7400 for PX, 4400 - 5300 for PTA, and 5800 - 6500 for bottle chips. The current 20 - day rolling volatilities are 9.09% for ethylene glycol, 11.78% for PX, 9.30% for PTA, and 7.92% for bottle chips. The current volatility historical percentiles (3 - year) are 1.4% for ethylene glycol, 17.7% for PX, 4.6% for PTA, and 0.9% for bottle chips [2]. Polyester Hedging Strategies - **Inventory Management**: For enterprises with high finished - product inventory worried about EG price drops, they can short EG2509 futures (25% hedging ratio, entry range 4450 - 4550), buy EG2509P4350 put options, and sell EG2509C4500 call options (50% hedging ratio, entry range 10 - 15) [2]. - **Procurement Management**: For enterprises with low procurement inventory and aiming to purchase according to orders, they can buy EG2509 futures (50% hedging ratio, entry range 4300 - 4400), sell EG2509P4350 put options (75% hedging ratio, entry range 10 - 30) to lock in procurement costs [2]. Market Influencing Factors - **Likely Positive Factor**: On August 4, the Emergency Management Department released the new "Coal Mine Safety Regulations", leading to a rebound in coal prices and an increase in costs [4]. - **Possible Negative Factor**: There is a market rumor that large filament manufacturers' FDY is suffering heavy losses and may cut production, but the implementation needs further observation [7]. Price and Spread Data on August 11, 2025 - **Price Changes**: Compared with August 8 and August 4, prices of various polyester - related products such as Brent crude oil, PX, PTA, EG, etc. have different degrees of changes. For example, Brent crude oil dropped by 0.3 dollars/barrel compared with August 8 and 2.4 dollars/barrel compared with August 4 [8]. - **Spread Changes**: Spreads such as TA1 - 5, EG1 - 5, etc. also changed. For example, TA1 - 5 month - spread increased by 2 yuan/ton compared with August 8 and decreased by 6 yuan/ton compared with August 4 [8]. Production and Sales Rates and Processing Fees - **Production and Sales Rates**: The production and sales rates of polyester products such as polyester filament, polyester staple fiber, and polyester chips have different degrees of changes. For example, the polyester filament production and sales rate increased by 24.8% compared with August 8 [9]. - **Processing Fees**: Processing fees of products such as gasoline reforming, aromatics reforming, etc. also changed. For example, the gasoline reforming spread increased by 3 dollars/ton compared with August 8 [9].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints - The "anti-involution" logic has temporarily ended, and price trends have returned to fundamentals, with the previous premium being rapidly squeezed out. For ethylene glycol, the inventory accumulation in Q3 is small, the supply-demand contradiction is not significant, the downward space is limited under low inventory, and the inventory accumulation expectation is postponed. After the correction, the valuation is relatively neutral, and it is expected to fluctuate within a range following market sentiment [3] - The new version of the "Coal Mine Safety Regulations" was released, leading to a rebound in coal prices and an increase in costs [3] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Polyester Price Forecast - The monthly price forecast for ethylene glycol is 4200 - 4700 yuan, with a current 20 - day rolling volatility of 9.09% and a historical percentile (3 - year) of 1.4%. For PX, it is 6500 - 7400 yuan, with a volatility of 11.78% and a historical percentile of 17.7%. For PTA, it is 4400 - 5300 yuan, with a volatility of 9.30% and a historical percentile of 4.6%. For bottle chips, it is 5800 - 6500 yuan, with a volatility of 7.92% and a historical percentile of 0.9% [2] Polyester Hedging Strategies Inventory Management - When the finished - product inventory is high and there are concerns about a decline in ethylene glycol prices, enterprises with long positions can short ethylene glycol futures (EG2509) with a 25% hedging ratio at an entry range of 4450 - 4550 yuan to lock in profits and cover production costs. They can also buy put options (EG2509P4350) to prevent large price drops and sell call options (EG2509C4500) to reduce capital costs, with a 50% hedging ratio at an entry range of 10 - 15 yuan [2] Procurement Management - When the procurement of regular inventory is low and enterprises want to purchase based on orders, those with short positions can buy ethylene glycol futures (EG2509) with a 50% hedging ratio at an entry range of 4280 - 4330 yuan to lock in procurement costs. They can also sell put options (EG2509P4350) with a 75% hedging ratio at an entry range of 20 - 30 yuan to collect premiums and lock in the purchase price if the price drops [2] Polyester Raw Material Production Facilities - Before May 30, 2005, there were various polyester raw material production facilities. For MEG, facilities in Shanghai Petrochemical, Maoming Petrochemical, Jilin Petrochemical, etc. had different production capacities, operating states, and production time. For PX, facilities in Yangzi Petrochemical, Tianjin Petrochemical, etc. were included. For PTA, facilities in Yizheng Chemical Fibre, Luoyang Petrochemical, etc. were listed [7] Polyester Daily Data Price and Spread - Many polyester - related products showed price and spread changes on August 6, 2025, compared with previous days. For example, Brent crude oil was at 67.7 dollars/barrel, with a daily change of 0.0 and a weekly change of - 4.8 dollars/barrel. TA01 contract was at 4754 yuan/ton, with a daily change of 32 yuan/ton and a weekly change of - 100 yuan/ton. TA1 - 5 month spread was - 38 yuan/ton, with a daily change of 4 yuan/ton and a weekly change of - 20 yuan/ton [8] Inventory and Processing Fees - On August 6, 2025, PTA warehouse receipts were 27131, with a daily change of 0 and a weekly change of - 2607. Many processing fees also changed. For example, the gasoline reforming spread was 37 dollars/ton, with a daily change of 0 and a weekly change of 5 dollars/ton. POY profit was 111 yuan/ton, with a daily change of - 45 yuan/ton and a weekly change of 110 yuan/ton [9]