Group 1: Overview of Natural Disasters in July 2025 - In July 2025, natural disasters in China primarily consisted of floods and geological disasters, with a total of 8.918 million people affected and direct economic losses amounting to 52.15 billion yuan [1] - The month saw significant rainfall events, with 10 regional heavy rain processes occurring, leading to severe flooding in northern regions [1][2] Group 2: Flood and Geological Disasters - The extreme rainfall resulted in severe flooding and geological disasters, particularly in Shandong, Jilin, and Liaoning, affecting 1.194 million hectares of crops and causing direct economic losses of 44.5 billion yuan [1][2] - A total of 586,500 people were affected by flooding and geological disasters, with 293 reported missing or deceased [1] Group 3: Wind and Hail Disasters - Eight regional strong convective weather events occurred, impacting 23 provinces and causing 1.034 million people to be affected, with direct economic losses of 4.31 billion yuan [2] - Inner Mongolia and Yunnan experienced significant agricultural losses, with affected crop areas totaling 185,000 hectares [2] Group 4: Typhoon Activity - In July, seven typhoons were generated in the Northwest Pacific and South China Sea, with three making landfall in China, resulting in direct economic losses of 3.14 billion yuan [3] - The typhoons affected 1.516 million people, with significant impacts on infrastructure and agriculture in Guangdong and other provinces [3] Group 5: Drought Conditions - Drought conditions developed in the Huanghuai and Jianghuai regions, with some areas experiencing over 50% less rainfall than usual, affecting crop growth [4] - The drought impacted 495,000 people, with direct economic losses of 190 million yuan [4] Group 6: Seismic and Fire Activity - Seismic activity in July was notably lower, with only four earthquakes of magnitude 4.0 or higher recorded, and no significant damage reported [5] - There were six forest fires reported, all caused by lightning strikes, with no grassland fires occurring [5]

Core Points - A mudslide in Tuanjie Village, Ning'er, Yunnan, caused by heavy rainfall, has resulted in 3 deaths and 1 missing person [1] - Local villagers reported severe weather conditions prior to the incident, including thunderstorms and significant property damage [1] - Emergency response efforts are underway, with 23 households and 58 individuals being relocated for safety [1]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core View of the Report The copper market presents a complex situation with a mix of neutral, bearish, and bullish factors. The copper price is expected to experience oscillatory adjustments due to factors such as a slowdown in Fed rate - cuts, rising inventories, ongoing geopolitical disturbances, and weak consumption during the off - season [3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Daily View - **Fundamentals**: Smelting enterprises are reducing production, and the scrap copper policy has been relaxed. In June, the manufacturing PMI was 49.5%, unchanged from the previous month, indicating stable manufacturing sentiment (neutral) [3]. - **Basis**: The spot price is 79,535, with a basis of 285, showing a premium over futures (neutral) [3]. - **Inventory**: On July 25, copper inventories increased by 3,700 to 128,475 tons, and SHFE copper inventories decreased by 11,133 tons to 74,423 tons compared to the previous week (neutral) [3]. - **Market trend**: The closing price is below the 20 - day moving average, and the 20 - day moving average is moving downward (bearish) [3]. - **Main positions**: The main net positions are long, and the long positions are increasing (bullish) [3]. - **Expectation**: With a slowdown in Fed rate - cuts, rising inventories, geopolitical disturbances, and weak consumption during the off - season, the copper price will undergo oscillatory adjustments [3]. Recent利多利空Analysis - **Likely factors**: Domestic policy easing and trade - war escalation are the influencing logics, but specific利多 and利空 factors are not elaborated [4]. Supply - Demand Balance - The supply - demand situation in 2024 shows a slight surplus, and it will be in a tight balance in 2025 [21]. - The China annual supply - demand balance table shows production, import, export, apparent consumption, actual consumption, and supply - demand balance from 2018 to 2024. For example, in 2024, production is 12.06 million tons, imports are 3.73 million tons, exports are 0.46 million tons, apparent consumption is 15.34 million tons, actual consumption is 15.23 million tons, and there is a supply surplus of 0.11 million tons [23]. Other Information - **Spot**: Information on spot prices includes place, mid - price, price changes, and inventory types, but specific data is not filled in [7]. - **Exchange Inventory**: The report mentions exchange inventory, but no detailed analysis is provided [13]. - **Bonded Area Inventory**: Bonded area inventories are rising from a low level [15]. - **Processing Fees**: Processing fees are declining [17].

Core Points - The Philippines has reported 30 fatalities and 7 missing persons due to the impact of Typhoons "Wipa," "Vansha," "Bamboo Grass," and the southwest monsoon [1] - Over 5.29 million people have been affected by the severe weather conditions [1] - Agricultural losses are estimated to exceed 760 million pesos (approximately 95 million RMB) [1] - Infrastructure damages are reported to be over 5 billion pesos (approximately 620 million RMB) [1] - A total of 154 municipalities across the Philippines have declared a state of disaster [1]

Group 1 - The G20 finance ministers and central bank governors face challenges including ongoing wars, geopolitical tensions, and trade disputes [1] - High levels of debt and frequent extreme weather events, as well as natural disasters, are significant concerns [1]

Core Insights - The report highlights the significant impact of natural disasters in China during the first half of 2025, with a total of 25.037 million people affected and direct economic losses amounting to 54.11 billion yuan [1][5][7]. Earthquake and Geological Disasters - A total of 57 earthquakes of magnitude 4.0 and above occurred, with the most severe being a 6.8 magnitude earthquake in Tibet on January 7, resulting in 126 deaths and direct economic losses of 8.945 billion yuan [3][4]. - Geological disasters, particularly landslides in Sichuan and Guizhou, resulted in 74 deaths, accounting for 88.1% of the national total, with direct economic losses of 280 million yuan [4]. Flood and Rainfall Impact - The southern regions experienced severe flooding, with 7.98 million people affected and direct economic losses of 30.39 billion yuan during significant rainfall events in June [6][5]. - The report noted that the flooding was particularly severe in provinces like Guizhou, Guangxi, Guangdong, and Hunan, which accounted for 74.5% of the national death toll and 84.3% of economic losses [6]. Drought Conditions - Drought conditions were reported across various regions, affecting 10.836 million people and resulting in direct economic losses of 4.37 billion yuan [7]. - The drought was exacerbated by lower than average rainfall and higher temperatures, impacting agricultural production [7]. Wind and Hail Damage - Wind and hail disasters were reported to be relatively mild, affecting 4.633 million people with direct economic losses of 7.15 billion yuan [8]. - The report indicated that while there were numerous incidents, the overall impact was less severe compared to previous years [8]. Forest Fires and Other Disasters - A total of 200 forest fires occurred, primarily in March and April, resulting in 2 deaths [9]. - Other disasters included coastal storm surges and wildlife attacks, which caused additional fatalities and economic losses [9].

Group 1: Production Safety Accidents - In the first half of the year, a total of 8,562 production safety accidents occurred, resulting in 8,079 deaths, representing a year-on-year decrease of 22.9% and 17.8% respectively [2] - Major accidents numbered 4 with 70 fatalities, showing a year-on-year decline of 20% and 25.5% respectively; significant accidents totaled 172 with 634 deaths, down 6.5% and 9.7% [2] - Despite the overall decline in accident numbers, certain regions and industries still face prominent safety issues, including major fire accidents in crowded places and illegal transportation in the transportation sector [2] Group 2: Natural Disasters - Various natural disasters affected 25.037 million people, with 307 reported deaths or missing persons, and 620,000 people were urgently relocated [3] - The direct economic loss from natural disasters reached 54.11 billion yuan, with significant damage to housing and agricultural land [3] - Key characteristics of natural disasters included a major earthquake in Tibet, a decrease in the number of significant earthquakes, and severe geological disasters in the southwest region [3]

Core Viewpoint - Severe flooding caused by heavy rainfall has impacted large areas of the Mid-Atlantic and Northeast regions of the United States, particularly affecting New York City and northern New Jersey [1] Group 1: Impact on Regions - New Jersey has declared a state of emergency due to flash floods and heavy rainfall [1] - Significant flooding was reported in Union County, New Jersey, affecting most areas and prompting the deployment of water rescue equipment [1] - Flooding in New York State led to the closure of major roads, including the Taconic State Parkway and Spring Brook Park Avenue [1] Group 2: Emergency Response - New Jersey Governor Philip Murphy announced the emergency status in response to the severe weather conditions [1] - Local authorities are actively responding to the flooding situation, with no reports of fatalities at this time [1]

Core Viewpoint - A severe thunderstorm impacted the Savoie region of France and northwest Italy, leading to the temporary suspension of train services between Paris and Milan due to heavy rainfall [1] Group 1: Weather Impact - The storm caused significant flooding in the Charmax River, with water levels exceeding riverbanks, particularly affecting the towns of Modane and Fourneaux, where water depth reached 50 centimeters [1] - The Savoie government reported that this flooding event is the most severe in 70 years for the Charmax River [1] Group 2: Local Response - Schools in Fourneaux were inundated and will be temporarily closed starting July 1 [1]

Group 1 - In May, various natural disasters in China caused direct economic losses of 8.44 billion yuan [1] - A total of 9.978 million people were affected by different degrees of disasters, with 55 reported dead or missing [1] - The average precipitation nationwide was 77.6 mm, which is 10.4% more than the same period in previous years [1] Group 2 - Floods and geological disasters affected 1.616 million people, resulting in 42 deaths or missing persons, and direct economic losses of 2.69 billion yuan [2] - Drought conditions were alleviated in southern regions, but eastern areas of the northwest still faced drought, affecting 6.265 million people with direct economic losses of 2.56 billion yuan [2] - Severe convective weather caused 1.982 million people to be affected, with 7 fatalities and direct economic losses of 3.16 billion yuan [2]