（文章来源：每日经济新闻） 每经讯负电价今年以来出现频率逐步增加，并已在多地发生。它是如何产生的？会如何影响电厂收益？ 清华大学电机系副教授郭鸿业接受每经记者采访时表示，负电价是多重因素共同作用的结果，其形成与 电力供需在时空维度上的结构性失衡有关，既有新能源高比例规模化并网的必然性，也暴露出传统电力 系统调节能力的局限性。但他强调，即使现货市场出现负电价，发电企业仅需承担小部分电量的亏损， 整体收益仍能保持稳定或实现盈利。负电价不等于负电费，由于有高比例中长期合约的保障，在结算层 面不会出现发电主体真的"付费发电"的情况，至多是让出了一部分发电利润。 ...

就在临近今年国庆中秋长假之际，四川电力现货市场在进入结算试运行过程中出现了一个奇怪的现象—— 9月20日当天，省内电力现货价格出现全天负电价，出清最高价格为-34.8787元/兆瓦时（即-0.034元/度）， 最低价格为-50元/兆瓦时（即-0.05元/度），引发各界的热议。 此前负电价已在山东、浙江、内蒙古等多地发生，它是如何产生的？会如何影响电厂收益？明知电价为 负，发电企业为何选择不停机继续发电？ 《每日经济新闻》记者（以下简称每经记者）采访了多位发电企业、能源专家和高校学者，试图还原负电 价背后的真相。 负电价频率逐步增加 我国各地电力现货市场都会设置交易限价，多数省份最低限价为0元/度。部分允许价格为负的地区如山 东、内蒙古，此前就曾出现过负电价，这通常发生在电力供应过剩、市场需求不足的情况下。 每经记者梳理发现，近几年来，国内电力市场的负电价现象从零星出现到逐渐增多，并呈现"从单点到多 省、从短时到长时"的趋势。 2019年，山东电力现货市场在国内首次出现负电价——-0.04元/度的出清价格；2023年，山东电力现货市场 出现连续21小时负电价；2024年"五一"期间，山东电力现货市场出现连续22 ...

Core Viewpoint - The emergence of negative electricity prices in Sichuan is a reflection of the supply-demand imbalance in the electricity market, driven by an oversupply of electricity from renewable sources and a decrease in demand due to seasonal and economic factors [1][2][3] Supply and Demand Dynamics - Negative electricity prices in Sichuan reached -48.74 yuan/MWh and -49.26 yuan/MWh on September 20 and 21, respectively, with a cumulative duration of -50 yuan/MWh lasting 45 hours [1] - The supply structure in Sichuan is heavily reliant on hydropower, which accounts for 73% of installed capacity, while electricity demand has decreased by 18.1% year-on-year due to lower temperatures and economic adjustments [1] - Similar instances of negative pricing occurred in Shandong and Zhejiang, attributed to significant drops in electricity demand during holidays, despite high renewable energy generation [2] Industry Implications - The occurrence of negative prices is seen as a natural outcome of supply-demand dynamics, not a sign of market failure, and can serve as a signal for necessary adjustments within the industry [3] - Power generation companies are not necessarily losing money during negative pricing periods due to existing subsidies and mechanisms that provide financial stability [3] - The phenomenon encourages power generation companies to innovate, such as integrating energy storage solutions and enhancing flexibility in coal-fired power plants [3] Consumer Impact - Current residential electricity prices are not directly linked to market fluctuations, ensuring stability for consumers despite negative pricing in the wholesale market [4] - Experts caution that frequent occurrences of negative pricing could indicate structural issues within the energy system that need to be addressed through policy and market mechanisms [4] Recommendations for Improvement - Suggestions include promoting the synergy between energy storage and renewable energy, enhancing inter-provincial electricity transmission capabilities, and refining market governance mechanisms to mitigate the frequency of negative pricing [5] - The overall sentiment is that negative pricing should be viewed as a temporary challenge that can lead to positive industry transformation if managed effectively [5]

Group 1 - The construction of China's electricity spot market has entered a critical stage, with seven provincial-level markets officially operational as of August this year, and six others in trial operation [1] - The spot market serves as a core platform for electricity resource allocation and is crucial for ensuring energy security, with a trading system covering 26 provinces and over 6,000 power generation entities [1] - The inter-provincial spot market has demonstrated its capacity to alleviate supply pressure during peak electricity usage, with a maximum mutual assistance power of 14.32 million kilowatts recorded this summer [1] Group 2 - The guiding role of the spot market in the consumption of renewable energy has begun to show results, with inter-provincial market transactions of renewable energy reaching 7.75 billion kilowatt-hours, accounting for 36.5% of total transactions in the first eight months of this year [2] - Zhejiang's spot market has effectively utilized market price signals to guide users in shifting their electricity usage, achieving a peak load reduction of 3 million kilowatts [2] - The increasing share of renewable energy is significantly altering the operational characteristics of the power system, with negative electricity prices becoming a common issue in regions with high penetration of renewables [2] Group 3 - Future market development should focus on a multi-layered system that includes energy markets, capacity markets, and ancillary service markets to ensure long-term supply capabilities and reasonable returns for flexible resources [3]

Group 1 - The core point of the article is that the Sichuan electricity spot market has entered a trial settlement phase, resulting in a full day of negative electricity prices, with the highest clearing price at -34.87 yuan/MWh and the lowest at -50 yuan/MWh, indicating a significant supply-demand imbalance [1][2][7] - The main reason for the negative electricity prices is that supply significantly exceeds demand, with the average electricity supply-demand ratio in Sichuan from September 19 to 21 being 1.44, 1.48, and 1.51 respectively [2][5] - The electricity supply in Sichuan is primarily hydropower, which constitutes over 60% of the installed capacity, and recent abundant water inflow has led to full reservoir conditions, prompting hydropower stations to declare negative prices to alleviate reservoir pressure [1][2] Group 2 - Negative electricity prices reflect the challenges faced by the integration of non-regulated renewable energy sources in Sichuan, where nearly 50% of the installed capacity consists of renewable energy sources that are not adjustable [5][6] - The occurrence of negative prices demonstrates that the market pricing mechanism is functioning effectively, providing price signals that encourage demand response and resource allocation [5][6] - There is an urgent need to establish a full capacity compensation mechanism to ensure that conventional power sources can maintain adequate revenue amidst the rapid growth of renewable energy installations [6][7]

Core Insights - The construction of China's electricity spot market has entered a critical stage, with seven provincial-level markets officially operational as of August this year, and six others in trial runs [1] - The spot market serves as a core platform for electricity resource allocation and is crucial for ensuring energy security, with a trading system covering 26 provinces and over 6,000 power generation entities [1] - The spot market has begun to show its guiding role in the consumption of renewable energy, with inter-provincial market transactions of renewable energy reaching 7.75 billion kilowatt-hours, accounting for 36.5% of total transactions in the first eight months of this year [2] Group 1 - The inter-provincial spot market's maximum mutual assistance power reached 14.32 million kilowatts during peak summer electricity usage, alleviating supply pressure in local areas [1] - The Zhejiang provincial market has implemented mechanisms such as "5-minute rolling clearing" and "joint optimization of electric energy and frequency modulation," effectively guiding users to shift their electricity usage by 3 million kilowatts [2] - The increasing share of renewable energy is significantly changing the operational characteristics of the power system, with negative electricity prices becoming a common issue in regions with high penetration of renewables [2] Group 2 - Future market development should focus on a multi-layered system that includes an energy market, capacity market, and ancillary services market to ensure long-term supply capabilities and reasonable returns for flexible resources [3] - The expansion of price differentials needs to be coordinated with capacity mechanisms to enhance the overall efficiency of the electricity market [3]

Core Insights - The construction of China's electricity spot market has entered a critical stage, with seven provincial-level markets officially operational as of August this year, and six others in trial runs, forming a basic framework of "unified market, dual-level operation" [1][2] Group 1: Market Development - The spot market serves as a core platform for electricity resource allocation and is crucial for ensuring energy security, with a trading system covering 26 provinces and over 6,000 power generation entities [1] - During the peak electricity usage this summer, the maximum inter-provincial mutual assistance power reached 14.32 million kilowatts, effectively alleviating supply pressure in local areas [1] Group 2: Renewable Energy Integration - The guiding role of the spot market for renewable energy consumption has begun to show results, with inter-provincial market transactions of renewable energy reaching 7.75 billion kilowatt-hours, accounting for 36.5% of total transactions in the first eight months of this year [2] - The operational practices in Zhejiang, the first provincial-level spot market in the Yangtze River Delta, have effectively utilized market price signals to guide users in peak shaving, achieving a reduction of 3 million kilowatts [2] Group 3: Market Mechanism Optimization - The seasonal and temporal characteristics of negative electricity prices in high renewable penetration areas indicate a need for mechanism optimization rather than administrative intervention, such as controlling the pace of renewable installations and enhancing user-side flexibility [2] - Future market structures should include a multi-layered system of energy markets, capacity markets, and ancillary service markets to ensure long-term supply capabilities and reasonable returns for flexible resources like pumped storage and energy storage [3]

Core Viewpoint - Shandong has become the first province in China to implement market-oriented pricing for renewable energy, marking a significant step in the national reform of renewable energy pricing [1][4] Group 1: Market Reform and Pricing Mechanism - The recent announcement of the 2025 renewable energy pricing results in Shandong signifies the formal implementation of the 136 document, which aims to introduce market competition into the pricing of renewable energy [1] - Shandong's reform includes a clear distinction between existing renewable projects, which will follow national pricing limits, and new projects that will adopt market-based bidding rules [1][2] - The shift from fixed pricing to market-based pricing means that renewable energy companies must adapt to a more volatile market environment, where they may face negative pricing scenarios [1][3] Group 2: Negative Pricing Phenomenon - Shandong has experienced instances of negative pricing, particularly during periods of high renewable output and low demand, leading to situations where energy producers may have to pay to sell their electricity [3][4] - The occurrence of negative pricing is not unique to Shandong; it is seen in mature electricity markets globally and reflects the challenges posed by the integration of renewable energy into traditional power systems [4] Group 3: Vehicle-to-Grid (V2G) Integration - The rapid growth of electric vehicles (EVs) in Shandong is creating opportunities for vehicle-to-grid (V2G) technology, which allows EVs to act as mobile energy storage units that can help balance supply and demand [5][6] - Shandong plans to establish multiple V2G demonstration projects and charging stations to facilitate the integration of EVs into the energy grid, promoting efficient energy consumption [6][10] - The V2G model is seen as a crucial component for enhancing grid flexibility and enabling better utilization of renewable energy resources [5][12] Group 4: Challenges and Future Directions - Despite the potential of V2G, challenges remain in terms of standardization, business model development, and user engagement, which need to be addressed for widespread adoption [8][9] - The current pricing mechanisms for V2G participation are not sufficiently attractive, limiting the economic incentives for EV owners to engage in energy trading [9][11] - Ongoing reforms in Shandong aim to create a more favorable environment for V2G, including differentiated pricing strategies and clearer compensation mechanisms for energy contributions from EVs [10][12]

Core Viewpoint - The implementation of the "Shandong Province New Energy Grid Price Marketization Reform Implementation Plan" marks the official rollout of the national policy aimed at promoting high-quality development in the new energy sector in Shandong, a leading province in renewable energy development in China [1][9]. Group 1: National Policy Alignment - The core objective of the reform is to establish a market-oriented pricing mechanism that supports high-quality development of new energy, ensuring efficient allocation of power resources while maintaining industry stability and aiding in achieving carbon neutrality goals [2]. - The plan builds on existing provincial electricity market frameworks and aims to create a synchronized market pricing mechanism for new energy that resonates with national policies [2]. - Since 2021, Shandong has been advancing its electricity market by allowing centralized photovoltaic and wind power projects to enter the market early, with a significant expansion expected post-implementation of the plan [2]. Group 2: Local Adaptation and Innovation - The plan introduces innovative measures tailored to Shandong's unique challenges, such as uneven development of wind and solar energy and a concentrated market structure, providing a model that can be replicated in similar regions [4]. - A "dual-track" agency model is proposed to support distributed renewable energy projects, allowing them to participate in market transactions through aggregation and agency representation, thus lowering entry barriers and enhancing market efficiency [5]. Group 3: Market Dynamics and Competition - To prevent price manipulation in the competitive bidding process, the plan introduces a "bidding declaration sufficiency rate," requiring that at least 125% of the declared electricity volume is submitted for bidding [6]. - The reform aims to enhance competition and ensure fair pricing by allowing market forces to dictate electricity prices, even permitting negative pricing during periods of oversupply [7]. Group 4: Expected Outcomes of the Reform - The reform is expected to propel Shandong into a new phase as a strong photovoltaic province, with mechanisms in place to protect project revenues while allowing for market-driven price adjustments [7]. - The plan encourages optimal project layout and storage development, promoting a more efficient allocation of resources and addressing previous issues related to storage deployment [8]. - The competitive landscape will drive technological advancements in the photovoltaic sector, fostering a cycle of investment, innovation, and cost reduction that strengthens Shandong's position in the renewable energy industry [8].

Investment Rating - The report does not provide a specific investment rating for the industry Core Insights - The report explores why European energy CPI remains high despite significant declines in energy prices, the lack of benefits from low-cost renewable energy for the public, and the impact of high electricity prices on commodities [5][11] Summary by Sections 1. European Energy CPI and Electricity Prices - European energy CPI reached a historical peak of 192.5 in October 2022, driven by extreme weather and geopolitical conflicts, despite a subsequent 82% drop in natural gas prices and a 40% drop in oil prices by June 2025 [5][11] - As of June 2025, the average household electricity price in Germany was 40.0 euro cents per kWh, translating to an annual cost of approximately 11,573 RMB for a typical family [11][12] 2. Factors Supporting High Electricity Prices - The high electricity prices are supported by five main factors: 1. The transition away from Russian energy sources has led to a doubling of procurement costs for LNG from the US [11][23] 2. Aging electricity infrastructure has resulted in rising grid costs, with distribution network costs increasing by 31.6% since 2019 [11][28] 3. Rising taxes and fees, which accounted for 38.4% of electricity costs in 2024, disproportionately burdening consumers [11][36] 4. Rigid renewable energy subsidies that add to end-user costs, despite a reduction in traditional subsidies [11][42] 5. High carbon emission costs, with EU-ETS prices reaching nearly 90 euros, contributing significantly to electricity costs [11][44] 3. Renewable Energy and Market Mechanisms - Despite an increase in renewable energy generation, with wind and solar accounting for 26.9% of total generation by June 2025, the benefits have not translated into lower consumer prices due to market structure issues [11][49] - The disconnect between wholesale and retail electricity markets has resulted in persistent high prices, as wholesale prices are often set by higher-cost fossil fuel generation [11][52] 4. Impact on Commodities and Manufacturing - High electricity prices have severely impacted energy-intensive industries, leading to reduced production in sectors like aluminum and fertilizers, while also diminishing the competitiveness of European manufacturing against countries like China [5][6]