东北负电价破局之路（下篇） —— 火电技术改造的转型逻辑 国家能源集团江西公司 付宇芊 2026年春节期间，东北电力市场经历了一次前所未有的价格信号冲击。2月14日至23日，辽宁实时市场 共有9个交易日全天加权均价为负，其中8天达到下限价-100元/兆瓦时，负价时段占比高达96.98%，蒙 东地区负价时段占比88.13%，黑龙江零价时段占比97.71%。上篇已分析出，核心成因在于北方冬季供 暖遵循"以热定电"原则，热电联产机组为保障供热需维持基础出力，叠加新能源大发，电力供应远超需 求，价格信号只能下探至负值。这便是当前煤电企业面临的两难困境：开机意味着亏损，停机则失去市 场、面临巨额重启成本。那么，煤电企业究竟该如何破局？ 一、中欧负电价现象的比较与启示 反观我国东北区域，黑龙江新能源发电量占比为31.9%，辽宁为24.09%，蒙东为36.83%。更低的可再生 能源占比，却出现更长时间的负电价。这一反差说明，东北的负电价并非"绿电太多"所致，根源在于火 电灵活性不足，尤其是热电联产机组的刚性约束。因此，破解东北负电价困局的关键，在于打破热电耦 合的刚性约束，让煤电从"主力电源"转向"调节电源"。欧洲的实践经 ...

一是可再生能源的自我调整。其核心驱动机制来源于EEG不断收紧的"负电价时间累计"触发机制。当现 货市场价格连续4个小时或以上为负值，受影响的电厂在对应时段的市场溢价补贴将直接归零。为应对 日益频繁的负电价事件，德国自2024年起逐步以"3小时规则"取代原有的"4小时标准"，进一步增强了主 动限发的经济激励，加速系统供需再平衡。 在德国能源转型进程中，负电价已从市场异常现象演变为可再生能源高比例接入背景下的结构性特征。 据德国联邦网络局统计，2023年德国日前市场负电价合计出现301小时，2024年增加至459小时，截至 2025年底接近575小时。然而，德国通过"市场机制优化、技术柔性改造、物理安全隔离"三位一体的制 度设计，将负电价压力转化为系统韧性提升的动力。 负电价 市场机制与能源转型的结构性张力 负电价本质是电力商品"实时平衡、不可大规模存储"特性与可再生能源优先上网权叠加的结果。当风 电、光伏大发而负荷处于低谷时，《可再生能源法》（EEG）赋予可再生能源优先调度权，传统电源因 技术限制及启停成本考量，宁愿支付费用维持发电，形成"倒出力"现象。 负电价在业界引发过强烈争议。争议浪潮中，德国政府仍坚持允 ...

Core Viewpoint - The emergence of negative electricity prices is a normal market reflection of supply and demand dynamics in the context of deepening electricity market mechanisms and high integration of renewable energy, rather than a sign of market disorder or failure in energy transition [1] Group 1: Nature of Negative Electricity Prices - The core function of the electricity spot market is to guide supply and demand through price signals for optimal resource allocation, with negative prices indicating an extreme case of oversupply [2] - Renewable energy companies may choose to report negative prices to avoid losses from curtailment and to benefit from subsidies and green certificate revenues, while traditional thermal power plants find it more economical to maintain low-load operations during short-term negative pricing [2] Group 2: Distinction Between Negative Price and Negative Fee - Negative electricity prices in the spot market do not equate to negative electricity fees for consumers, as the final settlement price includes various components beyond the spot market price [3] - For some renewable energy projects not covered by guaranteed purchase agreements, negative pricing periods may lead to actual negative revenue, highlighting significant price risk differences among market participants [3] Group 3: Key Causes of Negative Electricity Prices - The occurrence of negative prices is a systemic result of high renewable energy integration, physical constraints of electricity, and operational characteristics of traditional power sources [4] Group 4: Intermittency and Randomness of Renewable Energy Output - The intermittent and volatile nature of renewable energy sources like wind and solar leads to periods of oversupply, which is the primary reason for the emergence of negative prices [5] Group 5: Real-Time Balance of Electricity Supply and Demand - Electricity's unique characteristics require real-time matching of generation and consumption, and negative price signals can serve as a warning of potential system instability [6] Group 6: Operational Constraints of Traditional Power Plants - Traditional thermal power plants face significant operational constraints, including equipment lifespan loss from frequent starts and stops, making it economically challenging to adjust output in response to negative pricing [7] Group 7: Global Context of Negative Electricity Prices - Negative prices are not unique to China but are a common phenomenon in regions with high renewable energy integration and advanced electricity market mechanisms, as seen in countries like Germany and Spain [8] Group 8: Understanding and Leveraging Negative Prices - Recognizing negative prices as a natural outcome of market evolution and renewable energy integration can guide improvements in market mechanisms and system flexibility, turning negative prices into a catalyst for low-carbon and efficient energy transition [9]

Core Viewpoint - The recent notice from Southern Power Grid in Guangdong regarding distributed photovoltaic power generation during the Spring Festival highlights the risk of negative electricity prices due to a significant drop in electricity demand while supply remains high, indicating a need for system regulation [2][5]. Group 1: Negative Electricity Prices - Negative electricity prices are becoming a common issue in the context of China's energy transition and market reforms, reflecting challenges in absorbing large-scale renewable energy [5][18]. - The occurrence of negative prices is not a sign of market failure but rather a necessary outcome of the efficient price mechanism in the electricity market [5][18]. - Negative prices have been observed in various industries, indicating that they are not unique to the electricity sector and are a result of short-term supply-demand imbalances [7][8]. Group 2: Impact on Power Generation Companies - Concerns that negative prices will lead to widespread losses for power generation companies are unfounded, as a multi-faceted revenue system has been established to mitigate these impacts [10][11]. - The long-term contracts in the electricity market allow companies to secure most of their revenue, thus providing stability against fluctuations caused by negative prices [11]. - The growth of green certificate trading has become a significant revenue source for distributed photovoltaic projects, helping to offset the effects of negative prices [11]. Group 3: Future of Negative Prices - Negative prices are expected to become a regular feature of the electricity market rather than a temporary phenomenon, driven by the increasing share of renewable energy generation [13][18]. - The ongoing expansion of renewable energy capacity and improvements in market mechanisms will likely lead to more frequent occurrences of negative prices as a tool for balancing supply and demand [13][18]. Group 4: Benefits to Users - Negative prices can provide economic benefits to users, particularly commercial users, by linking retail electricity prices to real-time market prices, allowing them to share in the cost savings [15][16]. - The mechanism of negative pricing helps internalize external costs associated with excess electricity, encouraging efficient resource utilization and minimizing social costs [16][18].

Core Viewpoint - The emergence of negative electricity prices is a natural outcome of the deepening market reforms in the electricity sector and the transition to a cleaner energy structure, reflecting effective price mechanism adjustments rather than market failure [2][11]. Group 1: Negative Electricity Prices - Negative electricity prices are not unique to the power industry and can occur in various sectors due to short-term supply-demand imbalances, indicating a precise reflection of market conditions [3][4]. - The occurrence of negative prices is a typical manifestation of the market's self-regulating ability, as seen in other industries like energy and logistics [4]. - Negative electricity prices are expected to become a regular feature in the new power system, driven by the increasing share of renewable energy installations and the need for effective supply-demand adjustments [8]. Group 2: Impact on Power Generation Companies - Concerns about negative prices leading to widespread losses for power generation companies are unfounded, as a multi-faceted revenue system has been established to mitigate these risks [5][6]. - The long-term contracts and market mechanisms in place allow power generation companies to lock in revenue, ensuring stability even in the face of negative prices [6]. - The growth of green certificate trading has become a significant revenue source for distributed photovoltaic stations, helping to offset the impacts of market price fluctuations [6]. Group 3: Benefits to Users - Negative electricity prices can provide economic benefits to industrial and commercial users by linking retail electricity prices to real-time market prices, allowing them to share in the cost savings [10]. - The adjustment value of negative prices extends beyond immediate economic benefits, contributing to a more efficient allocation of resources and minimizing social costs [10]. - The transition to a dual-sided interaction model in the electricity market allows users to participate in the benefits of renewable energy development, enhancing overall system value [9][10]. Group 4: Conclusion - Understanding negative electricity prices is crucial for the high-quality development of the electricity market, as they signify effective market adjustments and resource optimization rather than failures [11]. - The ongoing improvement of market mechanisms and the cultivation of diverse adjustment resources will enhance the role of negative prices in supporting renewable energy integration and ensuring system stability [11].

Core Viewpoint - The recent notice from Southern Power Grid in Guangdong regarding distributed photovoltaic (PV) projects during the Spring Festival highlights the need for system regulation due to anticipated changes in electricity supply and demand, indicating potential risks of declining or even negative market transaction prices [1][12][10] Group 1: Market Dynamics - The notice specifies that from February 13 to February 19, 2026, distributed PV generation will "temporarily not connect to the grid" due to expected significant drops in electricity demand during the holiday [1][10] - The high penetration of renewable energy sources like PV creates a mismatch between supply and demand, leading to the likelihood of negative electricity prices if all generated power is allowed to enter the grid [13][16] - The issue extends beyond just negative pricing; it raises concerns about the electricity system's capacity to handle increased uniform output from PV sources [2][14] Group 2: Impact on Distributed PV Projects - Instances of negative electricity prices have become more common since their first occurrence in Shandong in 2019, with projections indicating over 1,000 hours of negative pricing in Shandong's market by 2025 [5][17] - Some distributed PV projects have faced negative billing due to poor planning and failure to implement curtailment measures, resulting in extreme cases where monthly electricity fees were negative [20][21] - The financial implications for project owners can be severe, affecting cash flow and potentially impacting loan repayment expectations, which could undermine investor confidence in distributed PV projects [20][21] Group 3: Market Signals and Investment Strategy - Negative pricing is not an anomaly but a market signal reflecting severe supply-demand imbalances, reminding investors that renewable energy does not guarantee profitability simply by virtue of generation [21][22] - The emergence of negative prices is prompting a shift in investment focus from "scale-first" to "quality-first," encouraging projects to be located in areas with better load foundations and stronger regulatory capabilities [22][24] - The differentiation in electricity prices across time periods is creating opportunities for new business models, such as energy storage and virtual power plants, allowing projects to mitigate losses during low-price periods [22][24] Group 4: Regulatory Measures - The decision to temporarily disconnect distributed PV from the grid during the Spring Festival serves as an emergency measure to prevent project owners from facing excessive negative billing [23][10] - As the penetration of renewable energy increases, the safety and market boundaries of the electricity system are tightening, necessitating better coordination between generation, load, pricing, and regulatory capabilities [24][25]

Core Viewpoint - Negative electricity prices in Germany have evolved from an anomaly to a structural feature in the context of high renewable energy integration, with significant implications for market mechanisms and energy transition [1][2]. Group 1: Negative Electricity Prices - In 2023, Germany experienced negative electricity prices for a total of 301 hours, which is projected to increase to 459 hours in 2024 and nearly 575 hours by the end of 2025 [1]. - The lowest recorded negative price was approximately -250 euros per megawatt-hour on May 11, 2025 [1]. - Negative prices are a result of the real-time balancing nature of electricity and the priority access granted to renewable energy sources, leading to supply exceeding demand during low-load periods [3]. Group 2: Support and Criticism of Negative Prices - Proponents argue that negative prices serve as an effective market signal, reflecting the scarcity of system flexibility and incentivizing the development of storage and demand response resources [4]. - Critics highlight that negative prices increase operational costs for the electricity system and can undermine the viability of traditional power plants, which still incur fixed costs during negative price periods [4]. Group 3: Policy and Economic Considerations - The German government maintains the existence of negative prices for several reasons: they are seen as a necessary mechanism for market clearing, a natural consequence of transitioning to a high renewable energy supply, and a stimulus for technological innovation [4]. - The introduction of stricter policies, such as the "4-hour rule" and its upcoming replacement with a "3-hour rule," aims to encourage renewable energy sources to limit output during negative price periods [6]. Group 4: Demand-Side Management - Germany's demand-side management is transitioning from passive response to active collaboration, with policies incentivizing flexible resources and investments in decarbonization and energy efficiency [7][8]. - The Power-to-Heat innovation is highlighted as a key technology that allows for the conversion of excess renewable energy into heat, thus creating a more flexible energy resource [8]. Group 5: Reliability and Safety Mechanisms - Germany has established a robust re-dispatch mechanism to ensure physical safety in the electricity system, decoupling economic signals from physical reliability [10]. - The country utilizes cross-border electricity trading to alleviate domestic grid pressure during negative price periods, enhancing system stability [11]. - The Loss of Load Expectation (LOLE) metric is employed to set proactive safety boundaries for the system, ensuring sufficient backup capacity during extreme price fluctuations [12]. Group 6: Conclusion on System Resilience - The German experience illustrates that negative prices and electricity system safety are not mutually exclusive but can be harmonized through institutional innovation [14]. - The integration of market mechanisms into the physical safety architecture of the electricity system provides a model for managing market volatility while ensuring stable power supply in a high renewable energy context [14].

Core Insights - The duration of negative electricity prices in the UK is expected to more than double this year, reflecting the rapid expansion of renewable energy generation [1] Group 1: Renewable Energy Expansion - The UK is projected to add a record 74 gigawatts of new wind and solar capacity this year, while electricity consumption is expected to remain flat [1] - This surge in renewable energy is putting pressure on the revenues of renewable energy developers [1] Group 2: Battery Storage Opportunities - The increase in negative electricity prices creates new opportunities for battery operators that can store excess electricity and sell it at appropriate times [1] - It is estimated that 9.8 gigawatt-hours of battery storage capacity will be deployed in the UK this year, surpassing the cumulative total built since the technology began scaling up about a decade ago [1] Group 3: Comparative Market Analysis - The expected duration of negative electricity prices in the UK is projected to reach 306 hours this year, significantly higher than the 149 hours anticipated for 2025 [1] - In Germany, the largest electricity market in Europe, the duration of negative prices is expected to increase by 57% [1]

近日，大规模冬季风暴席卷美国多地，带来大范围降雪和低温天气。 据美国媒体26日报道，23日以来席卷美国大部分地区的冬季风暴已造成至少30人死亡。 报道援引纽约市长办公室消息说，25日以来气温骤降，纽约至少有8人被发现死于户外。综合媒体报道，冬季风暴造成的其他死亡事件发生在得 克萨斯州、阿肯色州、马萨诸塞州、宾夕法尼亚州和堪萨斯州等地。 美国电力跟踪网站数据显示，截至美东时间26日15时30分，全美仍有近70万用户断电，其中大部分发生在南部地区。冻雨导致当地树木和电线断 裂，造成密西西比州北部和田纳西州部分地区严重断电。美国媒体报道称，密西西比州部分地区正遭受自1994年以来最严重的冰暴袭击。 美国航班跟踪网站数据显示，截至26日16时30分，已有5134架次美国境内和进出美国的航班被取消，5941架次航班延误。波士顿、纽约、达拉斯 的机场航班取消和延误最为严重。 美国国家气象局表示，虽然风暴系统26日正从东海岸向大西洋漂移，但一股来自加拿大的北极寒流紧随其后，将使零下气温持续数日。美国国家 气象局天气预报中心的气象学家艾莉森·桑托雷利表示："这场风暴现在正离开东海岸，但仍有一些零星降雪。最重要的是，极寒天气预 ...

Core Insights - The severe winter storm has put significant pressure on the U.S. power system, leading to increased heating demand and soaring electricity prices in many areas, while some regions, particularly in the Midwest, have experienced rare negative electricity prices [1][4]. Group 1: Impact of Winter Storm - The winter storm has affected approximately two-thirds of the eastern U.S., causing over 580,000 households and businesses to lose power due to downed trees and ice on power lines [1]. - The storm's extreme cold is expected to persist throughout the week, raising safety risks associated with power outages [1]. Group 2: Electricity Price Surge - The benchmark hub price in the PJM region surged to $638.73 per megawatt-hour during peak hours, marking a 542% increase and the highest level in 12 years [2]. - In New York City, the day-ahead price rose by 28% to an average of $679.13, setting a new record since 2005, with some areas exceeding $800 [2]. Group 3: Regional Power Management - The Midcontinent Independent System Operator (MISO) announced a conservative operational approach until January 29 to ensure reliable power supply for approximately 45 million people from the Great Lakes to the Gulf Coast [3]. Group 4: Negative Pricing in Chicago - In stark contrast to the price surges in the East, the Chicago electricity market experienced negative pricing, with real-time prices dropping to -$227.93 per megawatt-hour, indicating that some generators had to pay to offload electricity [4]. Group 5: Supply Constraints - The extreme cold has increased heating demand in the Midwest, but the negative pricing is attributed to full capacity on cross-regional transmission lines, limiting power exports to higher-priced markets [7]. - U.S. energy officials have requested grid operators to activate backup power sources, including data centers, to alleviate local supply constraints, but the situation is unlikely to change in the short term due to the near-maximum operation of high-voltage transmission lines [7].