Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - There is no information about the report industry investment rating in the provided content. 2. Report Core Views - **Stock Index**: The US consumer confidence in May saw the largest increase in four years. Trump rarely praised the EU and was encouraged by the acceleration of trade negotiations. Japan's Ministry of Finance rarely "surveyed" the bond market and considered reducing the issuance of ultra - long bonds, leading to a violent rebound in Japanese bonds. In the domestic market, the rotation is fast, the main driving force of the market is weak, and the trading volume is insufficient. The stock index may fluctuate weakly [1]. - **Treasury Bonds**: On Tuesday, without obvious negative news, the bond market yields rose by about 1bp across the board, with the long - end adjustment larger than the medium - and short - end. From the institutional net subscription desensitization data, it seems that pure bond funds experienced a large - scale redemption on Tuesday. The last similar redemption was in mid - March when banks began to cash in floating profits. There were also rumors in the market that commercial banks' motivation to cash in floating profits at the end of June was stronger than before. From the recent market micro - trends, treasury bonds performed weakly relative to policy financial bonds, and the bond - swap basis widened slightly, indicating a local supply - demand "imbalance" in the market. When "limited short - term downward space" and "being bullish but not buying" become market consensus, the impact of specific types of institutional trading behaviors on the market is magnified in the short term [3]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Stock Index - **Market Review**: The main contract futures of CSI 300 index fell 0.51%, that of SSE 50 index fell 0.51%, that of CSI 500 index fell 0.24%, and that of CSI 1000 index fell 0.1% [6]. - **Technical Analysis**: The KDJ indicator of the Shanghai Composite Index shows that it may fluctuate weakly and there is an adjustment risk [7]. - **Strategy Suggestion**: Adopt a defensive stance and wait and see [2]. Treasury Bonds - **Market Review**: The 10 - year main contract fell 0.11%, the 5 - year main contract fell 0.03%, the 30 - year main contract fell 0.26%, and the 2 - year main contract fell 0.02% [9]. - **Technical Analysis**: The KDJ indicator of the T main contract shows that it will fluctuate and may rebound [10]. - **Strategy Suggestion**: Bullish in the short term [4]. 4. Futures Data | Date | Futures Variety | Closing Price (Yuan/Contract) | Change (%) | Trading Volume (Lots) | Open Interest (Lots) | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 2025 - 05 - 27 | CSI 300 Continuous Contract | 3809.20 | - 0.51 | 54529 | 140116 | | 2025 - 05 - 27 | SSE 50 Continuous Contract | 2668.60 | - 0.51 | 28167 | 51671 | | 2025 - 05 - 27 | CSI 500 Continuous Contract | 5578.00 | - 0.24 | 52001 | 109673 | | 2025 - 05 - 27 | CSI 1000 Continuous Contract | 5915.00 | - 0.10 | 140778 | 186517 | | 2025 - 05 - 27 | 10 - year Treasury Bond Continuous Contract | 108.73 | - 0.11 | 58575 | 165848 | | 2025 - 05 - 27 | 5 - year Treasury Bond Continuous Contract | 106.03 | - 0.03 | 43924 | 128934 | | 2025 - 05 - 27 | 30 - year Treasury Bond Continuous Contract | 119.46 | - 0.26 | 62401 | 92091 | | 2025 - 05 - 27 | 2 - year Treasury Bond Continuous Contract | 102.41 | - 0.02 | 32028 | 104798 | [12]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No specific industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Views - **Stock Index**: After Trump postponed 50% of the tariffs, the EU stated that the EU - US trade negotiations had "new impetus" and planned to "advance rapidly." Japan planned to use LNG projects and shipbuilding technology to seek tariff concessions from the US, aiming to reach an agreement by mid - June. ECB President Lagarde said the euro could become an alternative to the US dollar. Domestically, the market rotation was fast, the main driving force was weak, and trading volume was insufficient, so the stock index might fluctuate weakly [1]. - **Treasury Bonds**: Since early May, factors such as the profit - taking after the "dual cuts," the bond market's risk - aversion sentiment due to the 90 - day tariff suspension, concerns about "deposit migration" after the deposit rate cut, and worries about bond issuance supply had a bearish impact on the bond market. Current bond market investors were generally cautious, and the view of "bullish but not buying" limited the depth of market adjustment to some extent and provided the probability and odds for subsequent trading [3]. 3. Strategy Recommendations - **Stock Index**: Adopt a defensive and wait - and - see strategy [2]. - **Treasury Bonds**: Bullish in the short term [4]. 4. Market Review - **Stock Index**: The main contract futures of CSI 300 fell 0.61%, that of SSE 50 fell 0.46%, that of CSI 500 rose 0.33%, and that of CSI 1000 rose 0.69% [6]. - **Treasury Bonds**: The 10 - year main contract rose 0.00%, the 5 - year main contract rose 0.01%, the 30 - year main contract rose 0.13%, and the 2 - year main contract rose 0.03% [9]. 5. Technical Analysis - **Stock Index**: The KDJ indicator of the Shanghai Composite Index suggested a weak trend [7]. - **Treasury Bonds**: The KDJ indicator of the T main contract showed a fluctuating and strong trend [10]. 6. Futures Data | Date | Futures Variety | Closing Price (yuan/contract) | Change (%) | Trading Volume (lots) | Open Interest (lots) | | ---- | ---- | ---- | ---- | ---- | ---- | | 2025 - 05 - 23 | CSI 300 Continuous | 3,831.20 | - 0.61 | 62,863 | 138,782 | | 2025 - 05 - 23 | SSE 50 Continuous | 2,684.40 | - 0.46 | 34,244 | 51,685 | | 2025 - 05 - 23 | CSI 500 Continuous | 5,594.60 | 0.33 | 56,454 | 110,791 | | 2025 - 05 - 23 | CSI 1000 Continuous | 5,925.00 | 0.49 | 133,893 | 181,503 | | 2025 - 05 - 23 | 10 - year Treasury Bond Continuous | 108.855 | 0.00 | 52,310 | 166,526 | | 2025 - 05 - 23 | 5 - year Treasury Bond Continuous | 106.060 | 0.01 | 48,389 | 125,742 | | 2025 - 05 - 23 | 30 - year Treasury Bond Continuous | 119.760 | 0.13 | 58,787 | 91,927 | | 2025 - 05 - 23 | 2 - year Treasury Bond Continuous | 102.430 | 0.03 | 31,127 | 102,629 | [12]

金融研究 2025年5月22日 星期四 金融期货早班车 招商期货有限公司 市场表现：5 月 21 日，A 股四大股指多数上涨，其中上证指数上涨 0.21%，报收 3387.57 点；深成 指上涨 0.44%，报收 10294.22 点；创业板指上涨 0.83%，报收 2065.39 点；科创 50 指数下跌 0.22%， 报收 995.49 点。市场成交 12,144 亿元，较前日增加 31 亿元。行业板块方面，煤炭(+2.55%)，有色 金属(+2.05%)，电力设备(+1.11%)涨幅居前；美容护理(-1.09%)，电子(-0.93%)，传媒(-0.87%)跌幅 居前。从市场强弱看，IF>IH>IC>IM，个股涨/平/跌数分别为 1,615/196/3,599。沪深两市，机构、主 力、大户、散户全天资金分别净流入-82、-147、35、195 亿元，分别变动-128、-81、+72、+138 亿元。 股指期货 基差：IM、IC、IF、IH 次月合约基差分别为 222.78、178.52、75.78 与 46.03 点，基差年化收益率 分别为-21.62%、-18.46%、-11.52%与-10.04%，三 ...

Report Summary 1. Investment Ratings - No specific industry investment ratings are provided in the report. 2. Core Views - **Stock Index**: Trump's tax - cut bill is in a deadlock, there is infighting within the Republican Party, and there are discussions about international trade agreements. Domestically, the market rotation is fast and there is no main driving force, so the stock index may fluctuate [1]. - **Treasury Bonds**: Although the A - share market rose moderately on Tuesday, the structural differentiation intensified. The suppression of the bond market by the equity market is limited. The long - term local bonds in central regions with sufficient spread protection are favored. In the medium - to - long term, the upside space of yields is relatively limited, but the short - term market lacks clear catalysts and is in a stalemate [3]. 3. Strategy Recommendations - **Stock Index**: Adopt a defensive and wait - and - see strategy [2] - **Treasury Bonds**: Bullish in the short term [4] 4. Market Review - **Stock Index**: The main contracts of CSI 300, SSE 50, CSI 500, and CSI 1000 stock index futures rose by 0.63%, 0.45%, 0.58%, and 0.88% respectively [6]. - **Treasury Bonds**: The 10 - year and 5 - year main contracts rose by 0.24% and 0.20% respectively, while the 30 - year and 2 - year main contracts fell by 0.03% [9]. 5. Technical Analysis - **Stock Index**: The KDJ indicator of the Shanghai Composite Index shows that it may fluctuate with adjustment risks [7]. - **Treasury Bonds**: The KDJ indicator of the T main contract shows that it may fluctuate and rebound [10]. 6. Futures Data | Date | Futures Variety | Closing Price (Yuan/Zhang) | Change (%) | Trading Volume (Lots) | Open Interest (Lots) | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 2025 - 05 - 20 | CSI 300 Continuous | 3865.40 | 0.63 | 52572 | 150105 | | 2025 - 05 - 20 | SSE 50 Continuous | 2699.40 | 0.45 | 27980 | 51766 | | 2025 - 05 - 20 | CSI 500 Continuous | 5650.80 | 0.58 | 45384 | 112947 | | 2025 - 05 - 20 | CSI 1000 Continuous | 6019.40 | 0.88 | 124540 | 184920 | | 2025 - 05 - 20 | 10 - year Treasury Bond Continuous | 108.84 | 0.24 | 76231 | 142998 | | 2025 - 05 - 20 | 5 - year Treasury Bond Continuous | 105.95 | 0.20 | 57849 | 109912 | | 2025 - 05 - 20 | 30 - year Treasury Bond Continuous | 119.26 | - 0.03 | 36232 | 42558 | | 2025 - 05 - 20 | 2 - year Treasury Bond Continuous | 102.36 | - 0.03 | 41104 | 94660 | [12]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - The investment rating for stock index futures is to defend and wait and see [2] - The investment rating for treasury bond futures is to be bullish in the short - term [4] 2. Core Views Stock Index - Trump talked with the leaders of Russia and Ukraine. Putin is willing to draft a peace memorandum with Ukraine, and Zelensky is also willing to sign a peace memorandum and conduct negotiations but refuses territorial compromise and withdrawal. Fed officials poured cold water on interest - rate cuts, hinting that rates may stay high until at least September. China's April social retail sales growth slowed to 5.1% year - on - year, industrial added - value of enterprises above designated size increased by 6.1%, January - April urban fixed - asset investment rose 4%, and national real - estate development investment fell 10.3% year - on - year. China's Ministry of Commerce demanded the US to correct its actions. Without a clear market driver, the stock index may move in a volatile manner [1] Treasury Bond - The bond market is in an environment of weak economic recovery, and the trading logic is returning to pricing the endogenous economic momentum. The market's expectation of a deposit - rate cut is reasonable due to the narrowing net interest margin of banks. A new round of deposit - rate adjustment is a measure to match the decline in policy rates, and stabilizing the interest margin is a long - term task. The rumored cut in deposit rates is higher than that of policy rates, providing new support for the decline in yields [3] 3. Market Review Stock Index - The main contracts of CSI 300, SSE 50, CSI 500, and CSI 1000 stock - index futures rose 0.05%, 0.05%, 0.09%, and 0.15% respectively [6] Treasury Bond - The 10 - year, 5 - year, 30 - year, and 2 - year main contracts of treasury - bond futures rose 0.02%, 0.0%, 0.03%, and 0.0% respectively [9] 4. Technical Analysis Stock Index - The KDJ indicator of the Shanghai Composite Index shows a possible volatile movement with adjustment risks [7] Treasury Bond - The KDJ indicator of the T main contract shows a volatile movement [10] 5. Futures Data | Date | Futures Variety | Closing Price (Yuan/Contract) | Change (%) | Volume (Lots) | Open Interest (Lots) | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 2025 - 05 - 19 | CSI 300 Continuous | 3843.20 | 0.05 | 48882 | 149439 | | 2025 - 05 - 19 | SSE 50 Continuous | 2688.80 | 0.05 | 27081 | 51445 | | 2025 - 05 - 19 | CSI 500 Continuous | 5623.00 | 0.09 | 51297 | 118428 | | 2025 - 05 - 19 | CSI 1000 Continuous | 5975.40 | 0.15 | 140984 | 192261 | | 2025 - 05 - 19 | 10 - year Treasury Bond Continuous | 108.61 | 0.02 | 57954 | 82926 | | 2025 - 05 - 19 | 5 - year Treasury Bond Continuous | 105.73 | - 0.00 | 42586 | 66890 | | 2025 - 05 - 19 | 30 - year Treasury Bond Continuous | 119.32 | 0.03 | 43076 | 47914 | | 2025 - 05 - 19 | 2 - year Treasury Bond Continuous | 102.38 | - 0.00 | 48335 | 87939 | [12]

金融研究 2025年5月12日 星期一 金融期货早班车 招商期货有限公司 市场表现：5 月 9 日，A 股四大股指有所回调，其中上证指数下跌 0.3%，报收 3342 点；深成指下 跌 0.69%，报收 10126.83 点；创业板指下跌 0.87%，报收 2011.77 点；科创 50 指数下跌 1.96%， 报收 1006.32 点。市场成交 12,224 亿元，较前日减少 994 亿元。行业板块方面，美容护理(+1.41%)， 银行(+1.36%)，纺织服饰(+0.72%)涨幅居前；电子(-2.07%)，计算机(-1.96%)，国防军工(-1.87%)跌 幅居前。从市场强弱看，IH>IF>IC>IM，个股涨/平/跌数分别为 1,212/135/4,061。沪深两市，机构、 主力、大户、散户全天资金分别净流入-174、-192、62、304 亿元，分别变动-244、-103、+156、 +191 亿元。 基差：IM、IC、IF、IH 次月合约基差分别为 136.88、116.92、37.56 与 17.81 点，基差年化收益率 分别为-18.75%、-17.03%、-8.14%与-5.53%，三年期历史分 ...

金融期货日报 股指 ◆ 核心观点： 特朗普喊"买股票"，再批鲍威尔动作慢，称他什么都不懂，几乎没有通胀。 英美就关税贸易协议条款达成一致，细节待敲定；特朗普称对英协议并非模 板，10%或是最低，他国关税可能更高。欧盟将就美关税向世贸组织提出诉 讼，并准备对 950 亿欧元自美国进口产品采取反制措施，拿汽车、飞机和威 士忌"开刀"。关注近期的中美会谈，股指或震荡运行。 ◆ 策略建议： 震荡偏强 国债 ◆ 核心观点： 后续走势上，如果中短端仍继续强势，曲线陡峭化也会让长端有一定性价比， 在没有利空环境下，长端或出现补涨。央行大概率仍会继续净投放，参考之 前发行，可能会先营造较好的情绪，压低一级发行利率，但午后可能开始避 险周末中美谈判，不过目前市场对谈判达成成果的预期不高，可能调整也不 会有太大空间，下周还会陆续公布 4 月份经济金融数据，整体利好债市。 ◆ 策略建议： 短期看好 研究咨询部 2025-05-09 公司资质 长江期货股份有限公司交易咨询业 务资格：鄂证监期货字{2014}1 号 金融期货团队 研究员： 彭博 从业编号：F3080600 投资咨询编号：Z0021839 研究员： 张志恒 从业编号：F ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - The A-share market is expected to stabilize from four perspectives, and it is recommended to buy index futures on dips. Short-term IC and IM have more elasticity, while medium- and long-term IH and IF are more attractive in terms of valuation [4]. - The short-term funds are neutral. After the unexpected implementation of US tariffs, there are signs of easing. Although global trade uncertainties still exist, government bonds have gradually returned to pricing based on economic fundamentals. In the short term, government bond prices are expected to fluctuate; in the long term, the timing and intensity of fiscal/monetary policies will affect the price trend of government bond futures [5]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs (1) Economic Data - High-frequency data shows that the recent infrastructure boom has slightly increased, while the import and export boom has decreased [7]. (2) Stock Index Futures and Spot Market Performance - On May 7th, the four major A-share stock indexes all rose. The Shanghai Composite Index rose 0.8% to close at 3342.67 points; the Shenzhen Component Index rose 0.22% to close at 10104.13 points; the ChiNext Index rose 0.51% to close at 1996.51 points; the Science and Technology Innovation 50 Index rose 0.36% to close at 1030.19 points. The market turnover was 15,051 billion yuan, an increase of 140.6 billion yuan from the previous day [2]. - The basis and basis annualized yields of IM, IC, IF, and IH next-month contracts are 156.29, 130.09, 46.63, and 24.3 points, and -19.98%, -17.67%, -9.51%, and -7.11% respectively. The three-year historical quantiles are 3%, 2%, 6%, and 14% respectively. The futures-spot price difference has been repaired but is still at a low level [3]. (3) Government Bond Futures and Spot Market Performance - On May 7th, most government bond futures declined. The 2-year government bond futures fell 0.01% to close at 102.31 points; the 5-year government bond futures fell 0.08% to close at 106 points; the 10-year government bond futures fell 0.19% to close at 108.85 points; the 30-year government bond futures fell 0.62% to close at 120.14 points [4]. - In terms of the current bond, the CTD bonds of 2-year, 5-year, 10-year, and 30-year government bond futures have corresponding net basis and IRR. In terms of the money market, the central bank's net withdrawal was 33.53 billion yuan. In the short term, government bond prices are expected to fluctuate; in the long term, the timing and intensity of fiscal/monetary policies will affect the price trend of government bond futures [5].

金融研究 2025年5月7日 星期三 金融期货早班车 招商期货有限公司 市场表现：5 月 6 日，A 股四大股指全线上行，其中上证指数上涨 1.13%，报收 3316.11 点；深成指 上涨 1.84%，报收 10082.34 点；创业板指上涨 1.97%，报收 1986.41 点；科创 50 指数上涨 1.39%， 报收 1026.52 点。市场成交 13,644 亿元，较前日增加 1,714 亿元。行业板块方面，计算机(+3.65%)， 通信(+3.59%)，综合(+3.38%)涨幅居前；银行(-0.13%)，食品饮料(+0.35%)，美容护理(+0.43%)跌 幅居前。从市场强弱看，IM>IC>IF>IH，个股涨/平/跌数分别为 4,959/70/379。沪深两市，机构、主 力、大户、散户全天资金分别净流入 196、60、-149、-107 亿元，分别变动+164、+99、-78、-184 亿元。 风险提示：美国双边政策不确定性、财政扩张进度不及预期。 市场表现：5 月 6 日，国债期货涨跌不一，其中 2 年期国债期货下跌 0.06%，报收 102.31 点，5 年 期国债期货下跌 0.04%，报收 1 ...

金融期货日报 股指 ◆ 核心观点： 美国 4 月 ISM 服务业指数意外不降反升至 51.6，价格指数创两年多新高，就 业和新订单改善。美财长贝森特兜售押注美国：减税等特朗普政策组合拳会 吸引在美投资，到明年此时美国 GDP 增长可能接近 3%。潘功胜出席并主持 东盟与中日韩财长和央行行长会，会议通过新设以人民币等可自由使用货币 出资的快速融资工具相关安排。在内部环境较稳，外部不确定性较大，关税 博弈持续时间或较长的情况下，股指或震荡运行。 ◆ 策略建议： 震荡运行 国债 ◆ 核心观点： 外部冲击的博弈以及资金面仍是市场交易的主线。当前外部冲击对国内经济 的传导存在时滞效应，其潜在影响深度尚未完全显现。在中长期基本面逻辑 下，债市仍处于顺风环境。节后首日 OMO 到期量较为集中，持续关注资金 利率中枢能否有效下行，释放中短端的下行空间，届时也将为长端提供更大 的支撑。 ◆ 策略建议： 短期看好 研究咨询部 2025-05-06 1 / 9 公司资质 长江期货股份有限公司交易咨询业 务资格：鄂证监期货字{2014}1 号 金融期货团队 研究员： 彭博 从业编号：F3080600 投资咨询编号：Z0021839 ...