金融研究 2025年12月8日 星期一 金融期货早班车 招商期货有限公司 | | 市场表现：12 月 日，A 股四大股指走强，其中上证指数上涨 0.7%，报收 5 3902.81 | | 点；深成指上涨 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 1.08%，报收 13147.68 点；创业板指上涨 1.36%，报收 3109.3 点；科创 50 指数走平，报收 | | 1326.1 | | | 点。市场成交 17,390 亿元，较前日增加 1,773 亿元。行业板块方面，非银金融(+3.5%)，有色金属 | | | | | (+2.84%)，机械设备(+2.34%)涨幅居前；银行(-0.58%)，公用事业(+0%)，交通运输(+0.07%)跌幅居 | | | | | 前。从市场强弱看，IM>IC>IH>IF，个股涨/平/跌数分别为 4,384/93/974。沪深两市，机构、主力、 | | | | 股指期货 | 大户、散户全天资金分别净流入 81、-63、-143、126 亿元，分别变动+150、+82、-149、-83 | | 亿元。 | | | 基差：IM、IC、IF、IH 次月合约基 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints of the Report - For stock index futures, maintain the judgment of going long on the economy in the medium - to - long term, and it is recommended to allocate long - term contracts of various varieties on dips [1]. - For treasury bond futures, it is expected to be volatile in the short term, and it is recommended to hedge T and TL contracts on rallies in the medium - to - long term [1]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Stock Index Futures - **Market Performance**: On November 27, most of the four major A - share stock indexes declined, with the Shanghai Composite Index rising 0.29% to close at 3875.26 points, and the Shenzhen Component Index, ChiNext Index, and Science and Technology Innovation 50 Index falling 0.25%, 0.44%, and 0.33% respectively. Market trading volume was 1723.2 billion yuan, a decrease of 74 billion yuan from the previous day. In terms of industry sectors, light manufacturing, basic chemicals, and petroleum and petrochemicals led the gains, while comprehensive, media, and commercial retail led the losses. From the perspective of market strength, IM>IH>IF>IC. The number of rising, flat, and falling stocks was 2786, 217, and 2445 respectively. Institutional, main, large - scale, and retail investors had net capital inflows of - 8.1 billion, - 10.5 billion, 0.3 billion, and 18.4 billion yuan respectively, with changes of - 10.2 billion, + 2.5 billion, - 0.9 billion, and + 8.5 billion yuan respectively [1]. - **Basis**: The basis of the next - month contracts of IM, IC, IF, and IH was 153.85, 113.28, 38.4, and 15.07 points respectively, with annualized basis yields of - 15.14%, - 11.64%, - 6.07%, and - 3.62% respectively, and three - year historical quantiles of 15%, 15%, 18%, and 23% respectively [1]. - **Trading Strategy**: In the medium - to - long term, maintain the judgment of going long on the economy. Currently, using stock indexes as a long - position substitute has certain excess returns, and it is recommended to allocate long - term contracts of various varieties on dips [1]. Treasury Bond Futures - **Market Performance**: On November 27, interest - rate bonds basically stabilized. Among the active contracts, TS rose 0.01%, TF fell 0.01%, T fell 0.06%, and TL fell 0.01% [1]. - **Cash Bonds**: The current active contract is the 2603 contract. For the 2 - year treasury bond futures, the CTD bond is 250017.IB, with a yield change of - 0.5bps, a corresponding net basis of - 0.052, and an IRR of 1.62%; for the 5 - year treasury bond futures, the CTD bond is 2500801.IB, with a yield change of + 1.5bps, a corresponding net basis of - 0.039, and an IRR of 1.58%; for the 10 - year treasury bond futures, the CTD bond is 250018.IB, with a yield change of + 1.75bps, a corresponding net basis of - 0.059, and an IRR of 1.64%; for the 30 - year treasury bond futures, the CTD bond is 210005.IB, with a yield change of + 1bps, a corresponding net basis of - 0.108, and an IRR of 1.73% [1]. - **Funding Situation**: In terms of open - market operations, the central bank injected 356.4 billion yuan and withdrew 300 billion yuan, resulting in a net injection of 56.4 billion yuan [1]. - **Trading Strategy**: It is expected to be volatile in the short term, and the valuation of interest - rate bonds has reached a reasonable level. In the medium - to - long term, with the increase in risk appetite and the expectation of economic recovery, it is recommended to hedge T and TL contracts on rallies [1]. Economic Data - High - frequency data shows that this month's import and export and social activity sentiment are better than the same period, while the infrastructure sentiment is worse than the same period [7].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - For stock index futures, maintain the judgment of going long on the economy in the medium - to - long - term, and it is recommended to allocate long - term contracts of various varieties on dips [1] - For treasury bond futures, with the risk appetite rising and the expectation of economic recovery in the medium - to - long - term, it is recommended to hedge T and TL contracts on rallies [1] 3. Summary of Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Stock Index Futures - **Market Performance**: On November 26, most of the four major A - share stock indexes rose. The Shanghai Composite Index fell 0.15% to 3864.18 points, the Shenzhen Component Index rose 1.02% to 12907.83 points, the ChiNext Index rose 2.14% to 3044.69 points, and the STAR 50 Index rose 0.99% to 1315.04 points. Market trading volume was 17,972 billion yuan, a decrease of 290 billion yuan from the previous day. In terms of industry sectors, communication (+4.64%), comprehensive (+1.79%), and electronics (+1.58%) led the gains; national defense and military industry (-2.25%), social services (-0.97%), and media (-0.82%) led the losses. From the perspective of market strength, IF>IC>IH>IM. The numbers of rising, flat, and falling stocks were 1,689, 168, and 3,591 respectively. The net inflows of institutional, main, large - scale, and retail investors in the Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets were 20 billion, - 130 billion, 12 billion, and 99 billion yuan respectively, with changes of - 91 billion, - 108 billion, +73 billion, and +125 billion yuan respectively [1] - **Basis and Annualized Yield**: The basis of the next - month contracts of IM, IC, IF, and IH were 140.85, 113.05, 38.03, and 10.8 points respectively, and the annualized basis yields were - 13.49%, - 11.27%, - 5.85%, and - 2.52% respectively, with three - year historical quantiles of 22%, 15%, 19%, and 26% respectively [1] - **Trading Strategy**: In the medium - to - long - term, maintain the judgment of going long on the economy, and it is recommended to allocate long - term contracts of various varieties on dips [1] 3.2 Treasury Bond Futures - **Market Performance**: On November 26, interest - rate bonds fell. Among the active contracts, TS fell 0.05%, TF fell 0.22%, T fell 0.36%, and TL fell 0.86% [1] - **Cash Bonds**: The current active contract is the 2603 contract. The CTD bond of the 2 - year treasury bond futures is 250017.IB, with a yield change of +0.5bps, a corresponding net basis of - 0.033, and an IRR of 1.58%; the CTD bond of the 5 - year treasury bond futures is 2500801.IB, with a yield change of +1bps, a corresponding net basis of 0.066, and an IRR of 1.26%; the CTD bond of the 10 - year treasury bond futures is 250018.IB, with a yield change of +2.25bps, a corresponding net basis of 0.071, and an IRR of 1.24%; the CTD bond of the 30 - year treasury bond futures is 210005.IB, with a yield change of +2.5bps, a corresponding net basis of 0.276, and an IRR of 0.78% [1] - **Funding Situation**: In terms of open - market operations, the central bank injected 2,133 billion yuan and withdrew 3,105 billion yuan, with a net withdrawal of 972 billion yuan [1] - **Trading Strategy**: In the medium - to - long - term, with the risk appetite rising and the expectation of economic recovery, it is recommended to hedge T and TL contracts on rallies [1] 3.3 Economic Data - High - frequency data shows that this month's import and export and social activity sentiment are better than the same period, while infrastructure sentiment is worse than the same period [8]

Report Summary 1. Market Performance - On November 25th, the A-share market rebounded across the board. The Shanghai Composite Index rose 0.87% to close at 3870.02 points, the Shenzhen Component Index rose 1.53% to close at 12777.31 points, the ChiNext Index rose 1.77% to close at 2980.93 points, and the STAR 50 Index rose 0.43% to close at 1302.17 points. Market turnover reached 1.8262 trillion yuan, an increase of 85.8 billion yuan from the previous day [2]. - In the industry sector, communication (+3.54%), media (+2.85%), and non-ferrous metals (+2.42%) led the gains, while national defense and military industry (-0.32%), transportation (-0.11%), and petroleum and petrochemicals (+0.01%) led the losses. In terms of market strength, IM > IC > IF > IH, and the number of rising/flat/falling stocks was 4,297/160/991 respectively. In the Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets, institutional, main, large, and retail investors had net inflows of 11.1 billion, -2.3 billion, -6.2 billion, and -2.6 billion yuan respectively, with changes of +13.3 billion, +8.5 billion, +1.4 billion, and -23.2 billion yuan respectively [2]. 2. Stock Index Futures - **Basis and Annualized Yield**: The basis of the next-month contracts of IM, IC, IF, and IH was 146.55, 108, 33.2, and 14 points respectively, and the annualized basis yields were -13.66%, -10.49%, -5%, and -3.19% respectively. The three-year historical quantiles were 21%, 18%, 21%, and 25% respectively [2]. - **Trading Strategy**: In the medium to long term, maintain the judgment of going long on the economy. Currently, using stock index futures as a long substitute has certain excess returns. It is recommended to allocate long-term contracts of each variety on dips [2]. 3. Treasury Bond Futures - **Market Performance**: On November 25th, interest rate bonds remained flat. Among the active contracts, TS rose 0.01%, TF remained flat, T fell 0.08%, and TL fell 0.33% [2]. - **Cash Bonds**: The current active contract is the 2603 contract. The CTD bond of the 2-year treasury bond futures is 250017.IB, with a yield change of -0.15 bps, a corresponding net basis of -0.081, and an IRR of 1.72%. The CTD bond of the 5-year treasury bond futures is 2500801.IB, with a yield change of +0 bps, a corresponding net basis of -0.129, and an IRR of 1.87%. The CTD bond of the 10-year treasury bond futures is 250018.IB, with a yield change of +1 bps, a corresponding net basis of -0.119, and an IRR of 1.84%. The CTD bond of the 30-year treasury bond futures is 210005.IB, with a yield change of +2 bps, a corresponding net basis of -0.14, and an IRR of 1.81% [2]. - **Funding Situation**: In terms of open market operations, the central bank's currency injection was 302.1 billion yuan, currency withdrawal was 407.5 billion yuan, and the net withdrawal was 105.4 billion yuan [2]. - **Trading Strategy**: In the short term, the market will fluctuate, and the valuation of interest rate bonds has reached a reasonable level. In the medium to long term, with the increase in risk appetite and the expectation of economic recovery, it is recommended to hedge on rallies for T and TL [2]. 4. Economic Data - High-frequency data shows that this month's import and export and social activity sentiment are better than the same period, while infrastructure sentiment is worse than the same period [10].

金融研究 2025年11月21日 星期五 金融期货早班车 招商期货有限公司 市场表现：11 月 20 日，A 股四大股指延续调整，其中上证指数下跌 0.4%，报收 3931.05 点；深成 指下跌 0.76%，报收 12980.82 点；创业板指下跌 1.12%，报收 3042.34 点；科创 50 指数下跌 1.24%， 报收 1328.19 点。市场成交 17,226 亿元，较前日减少 200 亿元。行业板块方面，建筑材料(+1.4%)， 综合(+0.87%)，银行(+0.86%)涨幅居前；美容护理(-2.39%)，煤炭(-2.1%)，电力设备(-1.96%)跌幅 居前。从市场强弱看，IH>IF>IM>IC，个股涨/平/跌数分别为 1,452/150/3,846。沪深两市，机构、主 力、大户、散户全天资金分别净流入-156、-210、34、332 亿元，分别变动+23、-41、-24、+42 亿 元。 股指期货 基差：IM、IC、IF、IH 次月合约基差分别为 76.81、61.95、25.75 与 5.69 点，基差年化收益率分别 为-11.89%、-9.97%、-6.41%与-2.15%，三年期历史分 ...

金融研究 2025年11月14日 星期五 金融期货早班车 招商期货有限公司 市场表现：11 月 13 日，A 股四大股指重回强势，其中上证指数上涨 0.73%，报收 4029.5 点；深成 指上涨 1.78%，报收 13476.52 点；创业板指上涨 2.55%，报收 3201.75 点；科创 50 指数上涨 1.44%， 报收 1399.29 点。市场成交 20,657 亿元，较前日增加 1,009 亿元。行业板块方面，电力设备(+4.31%)， 有色金属(+4.01%)，综合(+3.3%)涨幅居前；公用事业(-0.27%)，通信(-0.21%)，石油石化(-0.12%) 跌幅居前。从市场强弱看，IC>IM>IF>IH，个股涨/平/跌数分别为 3,952/157/1,334。沪深两市，机构、 主力、大户、散户全天资金分别净流入 178、-53、-129、5 亿元，分别变动+405、+162、-208、-359 亿元。 股指期货 基差：IM、IC、IF、IH 次月合约基差分别为 112.18、86.29、25.07 与 4.87 点，基差年化收益率分 别为-13.68%、-10.86%、-4.94%与-1.4 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - In the medium - long term, maintain the judgment of going long on the economy. It is recommended to allocate long - term contracts of various varieties when prices are low as using stock index for long - position substitution has certain excess returns [3] - In the short - term, the outlook for bond futures is bullish, and the implied interest rate of ultra - long bonds at 2.2 has sufficient cost - effectiveness. In the medium - long term, with the upward risk appetite and the expectation of economic recovery, it is recommended to conduct hedging operations on T and TL contracts when prices are high [4] 3. Summaries by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Performance - On November 12, the four major A - share stock indexes pulled back. The Shanghai Composite Index fell 0.07% to 4000.14 points, the Shenzhen Component Index dropped 0.36% to 13240.62 points, the ChiNext Index declined 0.39% to 3122.03 points, and the STAR 50 Index decreased 0.58% to 1379.45 points. Market trading volume was 1964.8 billion yuan, a decrease of 49.1 billion yuan from the previous day. Among industry sectors, household appliances (+1.22%), comprehensive (+1.05%), and textile and apparel (+0.87%) led the gains, while power equipment (-2.1%), machinery and equipment (-1.23%), and computer (-1.04%) led the losses. In terms of market strength, IH>IF>IC>IM, and the number of rising/flat/falling stocks was 1756/126/3561 respectively. In the Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets, institutional, main, large - scale, and retail investors had net capital inflows of - 22.8 billion, - 21.4 billion, 7.9 billion, and 36.3 billion yuan respectively, with changes of - 3 billion, - 47 billion, - 1 billion, and +50 billion yuan respectively [2] 3.2 Stock Index Futures - The basis of the next - month contracts of IM, IC, IF, and IH was 116.58, 88.05, 17.91, and 1.5 points respectively, and the annualized basis yields were - 13.9%, - 10.85%, - 3.44%, and - 0.44% respectively, with three - year historical quantiles of 20%, 17%, 27%, and 41% respectively [3] 3.3 Bond Futures - On November 12, interest - rate bonds showed a weak upward trend. Among active contracts, TS rose 0.01%, TF rose 0.03%, T rose 0.02%, and TL rose 0.09% [3] - For the current active 2512 contracts, the CTD bond of the 2 - year Treasury bond futures was 250012.IB, with a yield change of - 0.75bps, a corresponding net basis of - 0.004, and an IRR of 1.54%; the CTD bond of the 5 - year Treasury bond futures was 250003.IB, with a yield change of - 0.25bps, a corresponding net basis of - 0.034, and an IRR of 1.85%; the CTD bond of the 10 - year Treasury bond futures was 220017.IB, with a yield change of - 0.75bps, a corresponding net basis of - 0.013, and an IRR of 1.6%; the CTD bond of the 30 - year Treasury bond futures was 210005.IB, with a yield change of - 0.5bps, a corresponding net basis of 0.013, and an IRR of 1.39% [4] - In terms of the money supply, the central bank injected 195.5 billion yuan and withdrew 65.5 billion yuan, resulting in a net injection of 130 billion yuan [4] 3.4 Economic Data - High - frequency data shows that at the beginning of November, the import and export business climate was better than the same period, while the infrastructure business climate was worse than the same period [11]

Report Summary 1. Market Performance - On November 5th, the four major A-share stock indices opened lower and closed higher. The Shanghai Composite Index rose 0.23% to 3,969.25 points, the Shenzhen Component Index rose 0.37% to 13,223.56 points, the ChiNext Index rose 1.03% to 3,166.23 points, and the STAR 50 Index rose 0.23% to 1,390.39 points. Market turnover was 1.8943 trillion yuan, a decrease of 44.1 billion yuan from the previous day [2]. - In terms of industry sectors, power equipment (+3.4%), coal (+1.39%), and commercial and retail (+1.22%) led the gains, while computer (-0.97%), non-bank finance (-0.49%), and communication (-0.43%) led the losses [2]. - From the perspective of market strength, IM > IC > IF > IH. The number of rising, flat, and falling stocks was 3,376, 161, and 1,902 respectively. Net capital inflows from institutions, the main force, large investors, and retail investors in the Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets were -2.6 billion yuan, -10.8 billion yuan, -4.1 billion yuan, and 17.5 billion yuan respectively, with changes of +34.9 billion yuan, +9.2 billion yuan, -21.6 billion yuan, and -22.5 billion yuan respectively [2]. 2. Stock Index Futures - The basis of the next-month contracts of IM, IC, IF, and IH was 154.06, 121.34, 30.66, and 5.37 points respectively, and the annualized basis yields were -15.64%, -12.72%, -5.02%, and -1.35% respectively. The three-year historical quantiles were 13%, 11%, 20%, and 32% respectively [3]. - The trading strategy is to maintain a long position on the economy in the medium to long term. Currently, using stock index futures as a long substitute has certain excess returns. It is recommended to allocate long positions in forward contracts of various varieties on dips [3]. 3. Treasury Bond Futures - The current active contract is the 2512 contract. The CTD bonds for the 2-year, 5-year, 10-year, and 30-year treasury bond futures are 250012.IB, 250003.IB, 250018.IB, and 210005.IB respectively. The yield changes were +0.25bps, +0.75bps, +0.1bps, and +0.45bps respectively, corresponding to net bases of -0.027, -0.068, -0.022, and 0.012, and IRRs of 1.68%, 2.03%, 1.63%, and 1.36% respectively [4]. - In terms of the money market, the central bank injected 6.55 billion yuan and withdrew 55.77 billion yuan, resulting in a net withdrawal of 49.22 billion yuan [4]. - The trading strategy is to be bullish in the short term, as the implied interest rate of ultra-long bonds at 2.2 is already cost-effective. In the medium to long term, with the increase in risk appetite and the expectation of economic recovery, it is recommended to hedge T and TL contracts on rallies [4]. 4. Economic Data - High-frequency data shows that recently, except for the manufacturing sector, the prosperity of each sector is lower than the same period in previous years [11].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - In the short - term, the index may enter a volatile trend due to the unclear macro - drivers after the earnings season. In the long - term, it is advisable to maintain a long - position on the economy, and it is recommended to allocate long - term contracts of various varieties at low prices [2] - For the short - term, the trading strategy for bonds is bullish, as the implied interest rate of ultra - long bonds is cost - effective. For the medium - and long - term, considering the rising risk appetite and the expectation of economic recovery, it is suggested to hedge T and TL contracts at high prices [3] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Stock Index Futures and Spot Market Performance - On October 31, the four major A - share stock indexes adjusted. The Shanghai Composite Index fell 0.81% to 3954.79 points, the Shenzhen Component Index dropped 1.14% to 13378.21 points, the ChiNext Index declined 2.31% to 3187.53 points, and the Science and Technology Innovation 50 Index decreased 3.13% to 1415.53 points. The market turnover was 2349.8 billion yuan, a decrease of 114.5 billion yuan from the previous day [1] - In terms of industry sectors, pharmaceutical biology (+2.42%), media (+2.39%), and commercial retail (+2.08%) led the gains, while communication (-4.07%), electronics (-3.06%), and non - ferrous metals (-2.03%) led the losses [1] - From the perspective of market strength, IM>IC>IH>IF. The number of rising, flat, and falling stocks was 3759, 131, and 1548 respectively. The net inflows of institutional, main, large - scale, and retail investors in the Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets were - 24.6 billion, - 19.1 billion, 0.4 billion, and 43.3 billion yuan respectively, with changes of +22.1 billion, +10.8 billion, - 22.3 billion, and - 10.5 billion yuan respectively [1] - The basis and basis annualized yields of IM, IC, IF, and IH next - month contracts were 138.47, 88.6, 9.27, - 3.65 points and - 12.81%, - 8.39%, - 1.39%, 0.84% respectively, and their three - year historical quantiles were 24%, 25%, 45%, and 56% respectively [2] 3.2 Treasury Bond Futures and Spot Market Performance - On October 31, the short - term interest rates of interest - rate bonds decreased while the long - term ones increased. Among the active contracts, TS fell 0.02%, TF dropped 0.01%, T rose 0.04%, and TL rose 0.42% [2] - For the current active 2512 contract, the CTD bond of the 2 - year Treasury bond futures was 250012.IB, with a yield change of - 0.5bps, a corresponding net basis of - 0.038, and an IRR of 1.76%. For the 5 - year Treasury bond futures, the CTD bond was 250003.IB, with a yield change of +0.45bps, a corresponding net basis of - 0.057, and an IRR of 1.9%. For the 10 - year Treasury bond futures, the CTD bond was 220019.IB, with a yield change of - 0.5bps, a corresponding net basis of - 0.023, and an IRR of 1.65%. For the 30 - year Treasury bond futures, the CTD bond was 210005.IB, with a yield change of - 2.25bps, a corresponding net basis of - 0.279, and an IRR of 3.14% [3] - In terms of the money market, the central bank's currency injection was 355.1 billion yuan, currency withdrawal was 168 billion yuan, and the net injection was 187.1 billion yuan [3] 3.3 Economic Data - High - frequency data shows that recently, except for the manufacturing sector, the prosperity of each sector is lower than the same period in previous years [9]

Report Summary 1. Market Performance - On October 24, the four major A-share stock indices rebounded across the board. The Shanghai Composite Index rose 0.71% to close at 3,950.31 points, the Shenzhen Component Index rose 2.02% to close at 13,289.18 points, the ChiNext Index rose 3.57% to close at 3,171.57 points, and the STAR 50 Index rose 4.35% to close at 1,462.22 points. Market turnover was 1,991.6 billion yuan, an increase of 330.9 billion yuan from the previous day [2]. - In terms of industry sectors, communication (+4.73%), electronics (+4.72%), and national defense and military industry (+2.34%) led the gains, while petroleum and petrochemicals (-1.36%), coal (-1.29%), and food and beverages (-1.18%) led the losses [2]. - From the perspective of market strength, IC > IM > IF > IH. The number of rising/flat/falling stocks was 3,025/138/2,273 respectively. In the Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets, institutional, main, large - scale, and retail investors had net inflows of 18.6 billion yuan, - 3.8 billion yuan, - 10.9 billion yuan, and - 4 billion yuan respectively, with changes of +30.9 billion yuan, +9.8 billion yuan, - 11.8 billion yuan, and - 28.9 billion yuan respectively [2]. 2. Stock Index Futures - **Basis and Annualized Yield**: The basis of the next - month contracts of IM, IC, IF, and IH were 121.24, 98.73, 25.88, and - 2.78 points respectively, and the annualized basis yields were - 9.96%, - 8.29%, - 3.39%, and 0.56% respectively. The three - year historical quantiles were 38%, 25%, 27%, and 52% respectively [3]. - **Trading Strategy**: In the medium - to - long term, maintain the judgment of going long on the economy. Currently, using stock index futures as a long - position substitute has certain excess returns. It is recommended to allocate long - term contracts of each variety on dips. In the short term, there are signs of market cooling [3]. 3. Treasury Bond Futures - **Market Performance**: On October 24, the bond market had a slight correction. Among the active contracts, TS fell 0.01%, TF fell 0.05%, T fell 0.06%, and TL fell 0.25% [3]. - **Cash Bonds**: The current active contract is the 2512 contract. For the 2 - year Treasury bond futures, the CTD bond is 250012.IB, with a yield change of - 0.5 bps, a corresponding net basis of 0.02, and an IRR of 1.28%. For the 5 - year Treasury bond futures, the CTD bond is 250003.IB, with a yield change of +0.75 bps, a corresponding net basis of - 0.019, and an IRR of 1.54%. For the 10 - year Treasury bond futures, the CTD bond is 220019.IB, with a yield change of +0.5 bps, a corresponding net basis of - 0.02, and an IRR of 1.55%. For the 30 - year Treasury bond futures, the CTD bond is 210005.IB, with a yield change of +1 bps, a corresponding net basis of - 0.043, and an IRR of 1.65% [4]. - **Funding Situation**: In open - market operations, the central bank injected 168 billion yuan and withdrew 164.8 billion yuan, resulting in a net injection of 3.2 billion yuan [4]. - **Trading Strategy**: In the short term, be bullish. The implied interest rate of ultra - long bonds at 2.2 is cost - effective. In the medium - to - long term, with the increase in risk appetite and the expectation of economic recovery, it is recommended to hedge T and TL contracts on rallies [4]. 4. Economic Data - High - frequency data shows that recently, the prosperity of social activities, real estate, and infrastructure is lower than in previous periods, while the manufacturing prosperity is good [10].