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关注马士基7月第二周报价情况,7月下半月目前仍有挺价预期-20250624
Hua Tai Qi Huo· 2025-06-24 03:36
1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The geopolitical situation in the Middle East may have a limited direct impact on the global container shipping market, but the conflict between Iran and Israel could potentially affect the passage through the Strait of Hormuz, which is crucial for oil transportation [2][3]. - The supply and demand in the US - bound routes have both increased. With the reduction of Sino - US tariffs, the demand on the Sino - US routes has risen rapidly, and carriers are actively restoring capacity. The freight rates on the Shanghai - to - East and West US routes have declined from their high levels [2]. - The freight rates on the Shanghai - to - European routes are undergoing adjustments. The 7 - month upper - half freight rates are being corrected, and the 8 - month contract is in a game over the peak time of the freight rates. It is necessary to pay attention to Maersk's quotes in the second week of July [1][5]. - The container shipping industry is still in a year of high vessel deliveries in 2025, which may put pressure on the market [6]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs I. Futures Prices - As of June 23, 2025, the total open interest of all container shipping index European line futures contracts was 95,679 lots, and the single - day trading volume was 90,549 lots. The closing prices of different contracts were as follows: EC2602 at 1372.10, EC2604 at 1209.80, EC2506 at 1883.00, EC2508 at 1875.00, EC2510 at 1370.00, and EC2512 at 1530.10 [6]. II. Spot Prices - Online quotes for different alliances on the Shanghai - to - Rotterdam route vary. For example, Maersk's price in the 26th week was 1710/2880, and in the first week of July, it was 1885/3150. Different carriers' quotes for different time periods also show differences [1]. - The SCFI and SCFIS prices for different routes are provided. On June 20, 2025, the SCFI (Shanghai - to - Europe) was 1835.00 US dollars/TEU, SCFI (Shanghai - to - West US) was 2772.00 US dollars/FEU, and SCFI (Shanghai - to - East US) was 5352.00 US dollars/FEU. On June 23, the SCFIS (Shanghai - to - Europe) was 1937.14 points, and SCFIS (Shanghai - to - West US) was 2083.46 points [6]. III. Container Ship Capacity Supply - In 2025, 128 container ships have been delivered, with a total capacity of 1.018 million TEU. As of June 20, 2025, 38 ships with a capacity of 12,000 - 16,999 TEU have been delivered, with a total capacity of 570,100 TEU, and 6 ships with a capacity of over 17,000 TEU have been delivered, with a total capacity of 142,400 TEU [6]. - The weekly average capacity of the Shanghai - to - European base port in July was 279,500 TEU, and in August, it was 271,300 TEU. There were 8 blank sailings in July, including 5 by the OA Alliance and 3 by the PA Alliance [3]. IV. Supply Chain - The conflict between Iran and Israel may affect the passage through the Strait of Hormuz. Although the direct impact on container transportation is relatively small, it is a key node for global oil trade [2][3]. - The carriers on the Sino - US routes are actively restoring capacity. The remaining capacity in the last week of June on the Shanghai - to - East and West US routes was 372,000 TEU, the average weekly capacity in May was 243,400 TEU, and the average weekly capacity in July was 350,000 TEU [2]. V. Demand and European Economy - The demand on the Sino - US routes has increased due to the reduction of Sino - US tariffs, and the freight rates have first risen and then declined [2]. - The peak time of the Shanghai - to - European route freight rates in 2025 is unclear. Historically, in most years after 2017, the freight rates on the Shanghai - to - European base port route peaked around Week 34 [5].
FICC日报:美西运价有见顶迹象,关注马士基6月最后一周报价-20250611
Hua Tai Qi Huo· 2025-06-11 03:41
1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The freight rates on the US - West route show signs of peaking, while the freight rates on the US - East and West routes increased significantly in June due to supply - demand mismatch, but carriers are actively restoring capacity [3]. - Some shipping companies announced price increase letters for the second half of June, and the average price in the second half of June is over 3000 US dollars/FEU, which supports the valuation of the 06 contract [1][2][5]. - There is an expected price increase in August as it is a traditional peak season and the currently - counted capacity in July is relatively low. Attention should be paid to the peak time of European route freight rates in 2025 and the subsequent downward slope of freight rates [6]. - The recommended trading strategies are that the main contract fluctuates, and for arbitrage, go long on the 08 contract and short on the 10 contract, and go long on the 06 contract and short on the 10 contract [8]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs I. Market Analysis - Online quotes: Different shipping companies have different quotes for the Shanghai - Rotterdam route in June, and some companies' quotes for the second half of June are higher than those for the first half. For example, HPL's quote for the second - half - of - June shipments is 1835/2935, higher than 1635/2535 for the first - half - of - June shipments [1]. - Price increase letters: Some shipping companies, like MSC, announced price increase letters for the second half of June. MSC's price in the second - half - of - June price increase letter is 2340/3900, up from 1920/3200 in the first - half - of - June price increase letter [2]. II. Geopolitical and Supply - Demand Factors - Geopolitical factor: Israel's defense minister warned the Yemeni Houthi rebels that they would face maritime and air blockades if they did not stop attacking Israel [3]. - Supply - demand mismatch: In April and May, carriers withdrew capacity from the Trans - Pacific east - bound routes faster than during the pandemic due to expected decline in demand caused by Sino - US trade tariffs. Recently, with the reduction of Sino - US tariffs and the end of tariff exemptions on Chinese goods on August 11, demand on the Sino - US routes increased rapidly, leading to a significant increase in freight rates. Currently, carriers are actively restoring capacity [3]. III. Freight Rate and Capacity Analysis - Freight rates: The freight rates on the US - East and West routes increased significantly in June. The latest SCFI (Shanghai - US West) freight rate is 5606 US dollars/FEU (the lowest this year was 1965 US dollars/FEU), and the SCFI Shanghai - US East freight rate is 6939 US dollars/FEU (the lowest this year was 2866 US dollars/FEU). However, the US - West freight rates show signs of peaking [3]. - Capacity: The average weekly capacity of the Shanghai - US East and West routes in the remaining three weeks of June is 361,000 TEU, up from 243,400 TEU in May and 326,400 TEU in July. The capacity of the Shanghai - European route in June decreased, with an average weekly capacity of about 280,600 TEU in the remaining three weeks of June [3][4]. IV. Contract and Trading Analysis - Contract valuation: If calculated based on the spot prices corresponding to the last three periods of SCFIS at 2500 US dollars/FEU, 3000 US dollars/FEU, and 3000 US dollars/FEU, the expected delivery and settlement price of the 06 contract is around 1990 points, which supports the valuation of the 06 contract [5]. - Trading strategy: The main contract fluctuates. For arbitrage, go long on the 08 contract and short on the 10 contract, and go long on the 06 contract and short on the 10 contract [8]. V. Future Outlook - Price increase expectation: It is expected that shipping companies will announce price increases for July and August in early June and early July. CMA's quote for July shipments on the Shanghai - Rotterdam route is 2385/4345, about 1000 US dollars/FEU higher than that in the second half of June [6]. - Peak time: Historically, the Shanghai - European base port freight rates generally peaked around Week 34 in most years after 2017 (Week 34 in 2025 is from August 11 - 17). The peak time of the Shanghai - European route freight rates in 2025 is not clear [6].
FICC日报:MSC宣涨6月下半月,短期涨价预期较强-20250604
Hua Tai Qi Huo· 2025-06-04 02:48
1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The market has strong short - term price increase expectations as MSC announced a price increase for the second half of June [1][2][3] - The supply - demand mismatch has led to a significant increase in freight rates on the US routes in June. As carriers withdrew capacity from the trans - Pacific eastbound routes earlier and demand has now rapidly increased, prices have soared [2] - The capacity on European routes decreased in June, and many shipping companies announced price increases for the second half of June. The 06 contract will gradually return to "real - world" trading as the delivery deadline approaches [3] - There is still an expectation of price increases in August as it is a traditional peak season and the currently - counted capacity in July is relatively low. It is advisable to conduct arbitrage operations for the August contract [4] - In 2025, it is still a big year for container ship deliveries [7] 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Futures Prices - As of June 4, 2025, the total open interest of all contracts of the container shipping index for European routes was 90,839.00 lots, and the single - day trading volume was 109,688.00 lots. The closing prices of EC2602, EC2604, EC2506, EC2508, EC2510, and EC2512 contracts were 1358.80, 1181.90, 1894.10, 2100.20, 1339.00, and 1539.30 respectively [5][6] 3.2 Spot Prices - On May 30, the SCFI (Shanghai - Europe route) price was 1587.00 US dollars/TEU, the SCFI (Shanghai - US West route) price was 5172.00 US dollars/FEU, and the SCFI (Shanghai - US East) price was 6243.00 US dollars/FEU. On June 2, the SCFIS (Shanghai - Europe) was 1252.82 points, and the SCFIS (Shanghai - US West) was 1718.11 points [6] 3.3 Container Ship Capacity Supply - As of May 30, 2025, 34 ships of 12,000 - 16,999 TEU were delivered, with a total of 513,200 TEU, and 4 ships of over 17,000 TEU were delivered, with a total of 94,864 TEU. From January to May, a total of 115 container ships were delivered, with a total of 903,900 TEU [7] 3.4 Supply Chain No specific analysis content provided in the text, only figure descriptions. 3.5 Demand and European Economy No specific analysis content provided in the text, only figure descriptions.
关注马士基6月第二周报价情况-20250527
Hua Tai Qi Huo· 2025-05-27 02:33
1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The main shipping companies have announced price increases in June, and it is necessary to pay attention to the final implementation of the price increases for the 06 contract and the game of the expected price increase for the 08 contract [2][4] - The 06 contract will gradually return to the "real" end trading as the delivery deadline approaches, and the prices of major shipping companies are gradually adjusting. Subsequently, other shipping companies will gradually revise their freight rates downwards to reduce the gap with Maersk's prices [4] - In August, which is the traditional peak season, there is still an expectation of price increases, and the game between expectation and reality for the 08 contract is intense. Recently, it is more recommended to conduct arbitrage operations [4] - In 2025, it is still a big year for the delivery of container ships. As of May 25, 2025, a total of 109 container ships have been delivered, with a total delivery capacity of 873,100 TEU [6] - The strategy suggests that the main contract fluctuates, and the arbitrage strategy is to go long on the 08 contract and short on the 10 contract [6] 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Prices - As of May 26, 2025, the total open interest of all contracts of the container shipping index for European routes futures was 99,663 lots, and the single - day trading volume was 122,594 lots. The closing prices of EC2602, EC2604, EC2506, EC2508, EC2510, and EC2512 contracts were 1405.00, 1243.00, 1841.50, 2085.00, 1379.00, and 1568.00 respectively [5] 3.2 Spot Prices - On May 23, the SCFI (Shanghai - Europe route) price was 1317.00 US dollars/TEU, the SCFI (Shanghai - West Coast of the United States) price was 3275.00 US dollars/FEU, and the SCFI (Shanghai - East Coast of the United States) price was 4284.00 US dollars/FEU [5] - On May 26, the SCFIS (Shanghai - Europe) was 1247.05 points, and the SCFIS (Shanghai - West Coast of the United States) was 1719.79 points [5] 3.3 Container Ship Capacity Supply - In 2025, it is a big year for the delivery of container ships. As of May 25, 2025, 109 container ships have been delivered, with a total delivery capacity of 873,100 TEU. Among them, 34 ships with a capacity of 12,000 - 16,999 TEU have been delivered, with a total capacity of 513,200 TEU; 4 ships with a capacity of over 17,000 TEU have been delivered, with a total capacity of 94,864 TEU [6] - In June, the shipping capacity on the European route remains at a relatively high level, and the shipping capacity on the Shanghai - East and West Coasts of the United States route has increased significantly month - on - month. The average weekly shipping capacity on the Shanghai - European route in June is about 280,000 TEU, and the shipping capacity in weeks 23/24/25/26/27 is 285,700/275,000/319,000/243,000 TEU respectively, an increase of more than 20% compared with the same period last year. The average weekly shipping capacity in July is 261,000 TEU [2] - The average weekly shipping capacity on the Shanghai - East and West Coasts of the United States route in June is 328,000 TEU, 243,400 TEU in May, and 295,000 TEU in July. The shipping capacity on the Shanghai - East and West Coasts of the United States route has recovered rapidly in June [2] 3.4 Supply Chain No specific analysis content is provided in the given text, only the catalog of supply - chain - related figures is listed. 3.5 Demand and European Economy No specific analysis content is provided in the given text, only the catalog of demand and European - economy - related figures is listed.
FICC日报:马士基上海:鹿特丹运价开出,6月下半月仍存涨价预期-20250523
Hua Tai Qi Huo· 2025-05-23 05:34
Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Views - The shipping companies have issued price increase letters for June. The focus is on the final price implementation under the high - capacity background in June and whether the shipping companies will raise prices again in the second half of June. The 08 contract is facing a strong game between expectations and reality due to the traditional peak season in August and relatively low capacity in July. It is recommended to conduct arbitrage operations recently [3]. - The supply of shipping capacity in European routes in June is relatively high, and the shipping capacity of Shanghai - East and West US routes has increased significantly month - on - month in June. The US and China have adjusted tariffs, suspending part of the additional tariffs [2]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Futures Price - As of May 23, 2025, the total open interest of all contracts of the container shipping index European line futures was 107,007.00 lots, and the single - day trading volume was 133,162.00 lots. The closing prices of EC2602, EC2604, EC2506, EC2508, EC2510, and EC2512 contracts were 1450.20, 1266.00, 1768.00, 2206.00, 1451.90, and 1617.30 respectively [4]. 2. Spot Price - On May 16, the SCFI (Shanghai - Europe route) price was 1154.00 US dollars/TEU, the SCFI (Shanghai - West US route) price was 3091.00 US dollars/FEU, and the SCFI (Shanghai - East US) price was 4069.00 US dollars/FEU. On May 19, the SCFIS (Shanghai - Europe) was 1265.30 points, and the SCFIS (Shanghai - West US) was 1446.36 points [4]. 3. Container Ship Capacity Supply - In 2025, it is still a big year for container ship deliveries. As of May 16, 2025, 98 container ships have been delivered, with a total delivery capacity of 762,700 TEU. Among them, 31 ships with a capacity of 12,000 - 16,999 TEU have been delivered, with a total capacity of 467,300 TEU, and 3 ships with a capacity of over 17,000 TEU have been delivered, with a total capacity of 70,872 TEU [4]. - The average weekly shipping capacity in June was about 280,000 TEU. The shipping capacities in weeks 23/24/25/26/27 were 296,200/302,800/282,300/226,000/268,200 TEU respectively, with an average of 277,000 TEU, a year - on - year increase of more than 20%. The average weekly shipping capacity in July was 259,000 TEU. The average weekly shipping capacity of the Shanghai - East and West US routes in June was 320,500 TEU, while that in May was 243,400 TEU [2]. 4. Supply Chain No specific analysis content provided, only figure references. 5. Demand and European Economy No specific analysis content provided, only figure references.
FICC日报:主要船司发布6月涨价函,聚焦高运力下的实际价格落地情-20250516
Hua Tai Qi Huo· 2025-05-16 02:56
1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Main shipping companies have issued price increase notices for June, and the 06 contract should focus on the final implementation of price increases, while the 08 contract faces a game between weak reality and price increase expectations. Given the high capacity in June, it is recommended to conduct arbitrage operations recently [3][4] - The US tariff policy adjustment has led to significant changes in the US routes. Some shipping capacity has overflowed to European routes, but the US routes' capacity has rebounded in June, which may ease the pressure on European routes [3][4] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Futures Prices - As of May 15, 2025, the total open interest of all contracts of the container shipping index European route futures was 123,385 lots, and the single - day trading volume was 248,496 lots. The closing prices of EC2602, EC2604, EC2506, EC2508, EC2510, and EC2512 contracts were 1449.00, 1273.20, 1787.30, 2359.30, 1464.70, and 1611.20 respectively [4][5] Spot Prices - On May 9, the SCFI (Shanghai - Europe route) price was 1161.00 US dollars/TEU, the SCFI (Shanghai - US West route) price was 2347.00 US dollars/FEU, and the SCFI (Shanghai - US East) price was 3335.00 US dollars/FEU. On May 12, the SCFIS (Shanghai - Europe) was 1302.62 points, and the SCFIS (Shanghai - US West) was 1455.31 points [5] Container Ship Capacity Supply - In 2025, it is still a big year for container ship deliveries. As of May 1, 2025, 93 container ships have been delivered, with a total capacity of 724,600 TEU. Among them, 30 ships of 12,000 - 16,999 TEU have been delivered, with a total of 451,300 TEU, and 3 ships of over 17,000 TEU have been delivered, with a total of 70,872 TEU [5] - In June, the capacity on the European routes is relatively high, and the monthly average weekly capacity of the Shanghai - US East and West routes has increased significantly compared to May. The average weekly capacity in June is about 280,000 TEU, and the average weekly capacity of the Shanghai - US East and West routes in June is 294,000 TEU, compared with 243,400 TEU in May [2] Supply Chain - Geopolitically, Hamas is in direct talks with the US to reach an agreement to end the Gaza conflict. If a permanent cease - fire is achieved, Hamas can hand over control of the Gaza Strip [1] Demand and European Economy - Not elaborated in detail in the content, but factors such as the US tariff policy adjustment and the situation of the Gaza conflict may have an impact on demand and the European economy [1][3][4]
FICC日报:现货报价仍然相对偏弱,关注中美关税周末会谈情况-20250508
Hua Tai Qi Huo· 2025-05-08 02:55
Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. Core Viewpoints - The US tariff - adding policy has significantly changed the US - bound shipping routes. Some shipping capacity from the US - bound routes has overflowed to the European and Mediterranean routes. If more ships from the US - bound routes are diverted to the European routes, the freight rates of the European routes will face pressure. Attention should be paid to the shipping companies' capacity adjustment. [4] - It is necessary to closely monitor the possibility of Sino - US negotiations. If the two sides negotiate and reduce some export tariffs on Chinese goods, there may be an opportunity for supply - demand mismatch on the US routes, which will have a positive impact on the European routes. Due to the frequent adjustment of tariff policies and high uncertainty, arbitrage is recommended for recent operations. [4] - The 06 contract still faces a weak reality, while the 08 contract faces a game between weak reality and price - increase expectations. If the US - bound cargo volume remains low, more ships may be diverted from the US - bound routes to the European routes in June. [3] Summary by Directory 1. Futures Price - As of May 7, 2025, the total open interest of all contracts of the European container shipping index futures was 101,044.00 lots, and the single - day trading volume was 108,379.00 lots. The closing prices of EC2602, EC2604, EC2506, EC2508, EC2510, and EC2512 contracts were 1291.40, 1182.60, 1288.20, 1559.60, 1287.90, and 1460.70 respectively. [5] 2. Spot Price - Online quotes: Different shipping companies have different price quotes for different weeks and months. For example, Maersk's Week 20 price is 974/1647, Week 21 is 885/1480; HPL's May shipment price is 1100/1700, and June is 1800/3000. [1] - The SCFI (Shanghai - Europe route) price announced on April 30 was 1200.00 US dollars/TEU, SCFI (Shanghai - US West route) was 2272.00 US dollars/FEU, and SCFI (Shanghai - US East) was 3283.00 US dollars/FEU. The SCFIS (Shanghai - Europe) on May 5 was 1379.07 points, and SCFIS (Shanghai - US West) was 1320.69 points. [5] 3. Container Ship Capacity Supply - In May, the shipping capacity was gradually revised upwards. The weekly capacities in Week 20/21/22 were 251,600/262,000/296,000 TEU respectively. The average weekly capacity in May was about 280,000 - 290,000 TEU, a year - on - year increase of more than 20% in 2024. The average weekly capacity in June was about 280,000 TEU. [2] - A total of 11 ships on the US - bound routes were diverted to the European routes, with a total capacity of 128,000 TEU, mostly in May. If the US - bound cargo volume remains low, more ships may be diverted in June. [2] - 2025 is still a big year for container ship deliveries. As of May 1, 2025, 93 container ships had been delivered, with a total capacity of 724,600 TEU. Among them, 30 ships with a capacity of 12,000 - 16,999 TEU were delivered, with a total of 451,300 TEU; 3 ships with a capacity of over 17,000 TEU were delivered, with a total of 70,872 TEU. [5] 4. Supply Chain - Geopolitical aspect: Yemeni Houthi officials stated that the cease - fire agreement did not include any direct talks with US officials. The US - Houthi cease - fire agreement mediated by Oman aimed to stop attacks on US ships. [2] 5. Demand and European Economy - The US tariff - adding policy has affected the shipping market. If Sino - US negotiations reduce some export tariffs on Chinese goods, there may be an opportunity for supply - demand mismatch on the US routes, which will have an impact on the European routes. [4]