16 June 2025 | 2:29AM EDT US Economics Analyst June FOMC Preview: A Cautious Take on Tariffs (Mericle) Jan Hatzius +1(212)902-0394 | jan.hatzius@gs.com Goldman Sachs & Co. LLC Alec Phillips +1(202)637-3746 | alec.phillips@gs.com Goldman Sachs & Co. LLC David Mericle +1(212)357-2619 | david.mericle@gs.com Goldman Sachs & Co. LLC Ronnie Walker +1(917)343-4543 | ronnie.walker@gs.com Goldman Sachs & Co. LLC Manuel Abecasis +1(212)902-8357 | manuel.abecasis@gs.com Goldman Sachs & Co. LLC Elsie Peng +1(212)357-31 ...

Industry Overview - Natural gas distribution pipelines are essential for delivering natural gas to consumers, with nearly 3 million pipelines in the U.S. [1] - Rising domestic natural gas output is driven by increased exports and public awareness of emissions reduction [2] - The natural gas sector requires consistent funding for maintenance and repair of aging infrastructure, with anticipated interest rate cuts expected to lower capital servicing costs [3] Demand and Growth Projections - Natural gas consumption for electricity generation is projected to contribute nearly 40% in 2025 and 2026 [5] - U.S. natural gas exports are expected to grow by 3.4 billion cubic feet per day (Bcf/d) in 2025 and 2.1 Bcf/d in 2026, with export volumes increasing by 8% in 2025 and 7% in 2026 [5] Company Comparisons - MDU Resources has a market capitalization of $3.43 billion, while Southwest Gas has $5.11 billion [6] - MDU's 2025 earnings per share (EPS) estimate has increased by 1.1% to 95 cents, while Southwest Gas's EPS estimate has increased by 4.8% to $3.72 [7] - MDU has a return on equity (ROE) of 9.86%, compared to Southwest Gas's 6.76%, both above the industry average of 9.24% [8] Financial Metrics - MDU has a lower debt-to-capital ratio of 44.44% compared to Southwest Gas's 57.36%, with the industry average at 50.49% [11] - MDU's stock has lost 0.5% over the past three months, while Southwest Gas has declined by 2.3% [10][12] - MDU's dividend yield is 3.1%, while Southwest Gas's is 3.49%, both exceeding the S&P 500 average of 1.24% [13] Valuation - Both companies are trading at a premium on a forward 12-month P/E basis, with MDU at 17.16X and Southwest Gas at 17.98X, compared to the industry average of 14.84X [14] Conclusion - Both MDU Resources and Southwest Gas are positioned well for growth, but MDU is favored due to its superior ROE, debt management, and stock performance [15]

President Trump and Elon Musk have had a falling out in recent days. (Photo by Andrew Harnik/Getty ... More Images)Getty ImagesKey Takeaways Trump-Musk feud rattles markets; Tesla dives 14% as political tensions shake investor confidence Jobs report beats forecast slightly, but downward revisions temper enthusiasm and bond yields rise Tariffs, forecasts disappoint: Lululemon, DocuSign, Broadcom stocks fall sharply in premarket tradingMajor indices were relatively quiet on Thursday, the S&P 500 fell 0.5% and ...

Core Insights - Newmont Corporation (NEM) and Kinross Gold Corporation (KGC) are significant players in the gold mining industry, with global operations and diversified portfolios. Gold prices, while down from April 2025 highs, remain favorable due to safe-haven demand amid trade and geopolitical uncertainties, currently above $3,300 per ounce [1][2]. Gold Market Dynamics - Gold prices have increased approximately 28% this year, driven by aggressive trade policies, global trade tensions, and central bank accumulation of gold reserves. Prices peaked at $3,500 per ounce on April 22, 2025, amid calls for interest rate cuts [3]. Newmont Corporation (NEM) - Newmont is actively investing in growth projects, including the Tanami Expansion 2 in Australia and the Ahafo North expansion in Ghana, aimed at increasing production capacity and extending mine life [5]. - The acquisition of Newcrest Mining Limited has enhanced Newmont's portfolio, generating $500 million in annual run-rate synergies and creating a multi-decade production profile [6]. - Newmont has divested non-core assets, generating total after-tax cash proceeds of $4.3 billion, which includes $1.7 billion from three assets sold in March 2025 and $850 million from additional sales [7]. - The company reported liquidity of $8.8 billion at the end of Q1 2025, with operating cash flow increasing 162% year-over-year to around $2 billion [8]. - Newmont returned $1 billion to shareholders through dividends and share repurchases and reduced debt by $1 billion since the beginning of 2025, maintaining a long-term debt-to-capitalization ratio of around 20% [10]. Kinross Gold Corporation (KGC) - Kinross has a strong production profile with key projects like Great Bear in Ontario and Round Mountain Phase X in Nevada, expected to enhance production and cash flow [11]. - Tasiast and Paracatu are the main contributors to Kinross's cash flow, with Tasiast being the lowest-cost asset and achieving record production in 2024 [12]. - Kinross ended Q1 2025 with liquidity of approximately $2.3 billion and generated record free cash flows of around $1.3 billion in 2024 [13]. - The company repaid $800 million of debt in 2024, reducing net debt to around $540 million, with a long-term debt-to-capitalization ratio of 14.4% [14]. Stock Performance and Valuation - Year-to-date, NEM stock has increased by 46.5%, while KGC stock has risen by 66.8%, outperforming the Zacks Mining – Gold industry's increase of 54.4% [15]. - NEM trades at a forward 12-month earnings multiple of 12.59, approximately 10% below the industry average of 14X, while KGC trades at a premium with a multiple of 13.37 [18][20]. - The Zacks Consensus Estimate for NEM's 2025 sales and EPS indicates a year-over-year rise of 2% and 20.1%, respectively, while KGC's estimates imply growth of 15.3% and 63.2% [21][24]. Investment Considerations - Both Newmont and Kinross are well-positioned to benefit from favorable gold prices, demonstrating strong financial performance and commitment to shareholder returns. Newmont is viewed as a more attractive investment due to its valuation and higher dividend yield [25].

The companies under the Zacks Utility - Water Supply industry operate continuously to deliver a steady supply of clean, potable water and dependable sewer services to millions across the United States, services that are vital for maintaining public health and hygiene. Traditionally, water demand tends to dip during the winter months, as colder weather limits outdoor usage. In the spring, demand remains moderate, influenced by milder temperatures and gradually increasing outdoor activities.The aging of pipel ...

Australian office indicators Key leasing and capital markets metrics across the Australian office market Improving sentiment driving greater liquidity RECENT DEALS INDICATE THAT PRIME YIELDS HAVE STABILISED Markets have shown improving sentiment resulting with momentum in office investment continuing in Q1 2025. Several large deals occurred in Q1, with almost all activity located in Sydney. We consider that prime yields have stabilised for core assets, led by Sydney which has seen higher deal volumes and he ...

Investment Rating - The report indicates a mixed sentiment on equities, with a notable improvement compared to previous bearish views, but still reflects uncertainty in the market [2][6]. Core Insights - Following the US-China trade truce, investors have significantly adjusted their recession expectations, with nearly 60% now assigning a 30% or lower probability of a recession occurring within the next 12 months, a stark contrast to the previous month where nearly half expected a 50% or higher probability [4][6]. - Despite improved sentiment, volatility is anticipated to remain elevated throughout the year, with 60% of respondents expecting the VIX index to reach 30 or higher by year-end [3][13]. - A majority of investors (70%) expect the S&P 500 to end the year above 5,800, a significant increase from only 25% who held this view last month [6]. Summary by Sections Market Sentiment - Risk sentiment has improved on the margin, but investors still expect more bouts of elevated volatility this year [2][13]. - 48% of respondents now expect the Fed funds rate to end the year above 3.75%, up from 31% last month [17][20]. Equities Outlook - The current sentiment on equities is mixed, with 36% bullish and 30% bearish [6]. - The S&P 500 is currently at 5,896, with expectations for year-end values significantly higher than previous estimates [8]. Interest Rates - Investors expect the next Fed rate cut to occur in September, with a slight bull steepening anticipated in the yield curve [20][24]. - 59% of respondents expect 2-year yields to be below 3.4% by year-end [20]. Currency Expectations - There has been a notable shift in sentiment regarding the euro against the dollar, with 46% expecting EUR/USD to end the year above 1.15, compared to only 22% last month [25].

Industry Overview - The insurance industry is expected to benefit from rate increases, strong retention rates, new business growth, an active M&A strategy, and ongoing technological advancements in Q1 2025 [1] - However, interest rate cuts, an active catastrophe environment, and continued inflationary pressures may dampen overall growth prospects for insurers [1] Financial Performance Expectations - Total earnings for finance companies in Q1 2025 are anticipated to rise by 8.2% year-over-year, with revenues expected to improve by 3.3% [2] - Insurance companies are likely to see revenue growth driven by strong premiums from casualty insurance rate increases, exposure growth, and solid customer retention rates [3] Market Dynamics - U.S. commercial insurance rates experienced an overall decline in Q1 2025, primarily due to falling property insurance rates, while the casualty market saw strong price increases due to higher claim severity [4] - Lower interest rates are expected to pressure life insurers' investment returns but may encourage M&A financing, allowing insurers to diversify portfolios and enhance policy sales [5][6] Underwriting and Claims Environment - An active catastrophe environment poses challenges to insurers' underwriting performance, but such events typically lead to stronger policy renewal activity and prudent rate hikes [7] - The aging U.S. population is expected to maintain strong demand for life insurance and protection products, contributing to steady premium inflows [8] Specific Company Insights Allstate - Expected to see higher net premiums across most business lines, supported by rate increases, with a consensus estimate of $2.27 per share, indicating a 55.8% decline year-over-year [12][13] - Revenue consensus is pegged at $17.1 billion, implying 11% growth from the previous year [13] Aflac - Revenue growth is anticipated from U.S. operations, with a consensus estimate of $1.68 per share, indicating a 1.2% rise year-over-year, but revenues are expected to fall by 19.5% to $4.4 billion [14] - Challenges include a decline in sales of group voluntary benefit products and headwinds in the Japan segment [14] Prudential Financial - Expected to gain from higher fees and improved net investment spread, with a consensus estimate of $3.21 per share, indicating a 2.9% rise year-over-year, but revenues are expected to drop by 33% to $14.5 billion [15] - Growth supported by a diversified product portfolio in Japan and expanded channels in Brazil [15] MetLife - Anticipated to benefit from rising premiums across most segments, with a consensus estimate of $1.99 per share, indicating an 8.7% rise year-over-year, and revenues expected to grow by 7% to $18.2 billion [16] - Growth driven by strengthening operations in international markets, particularly Latin America [16]

Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - The company reported net income of $69.5 million for Q1 2025, a 13.3% decrease from $80.2 million in Q4 2024 [10] - Earnings per share decreased by 12.5% to $0.98 for Q1 2025 compared to $1.12 in Q4 2024 [10] - The interest margin increased to 3.25% for Q1 2025 from 3.07% in Q4 2024 [23] - Non-interest income for Q1 decreased by 4.3% to $11.2 million compared to $15.5 million in Q4 2024 [25] - Non-interest expense increased by 0.5% to $85.7 million in Q1 2025 from $85.2 million in Q4 2024 [25] Business Line Data and Key Metrics Changes - Total gross loans decreased by $23 million or 0.5% annualized, driven by a $100 million decrease in commercial loans and a $65 million decrease in residential loans, offset by increases in CRE loans and construction loans [11] - The company repurchased 876,906 shares at an average cost of $46.83 per share, completing a $125 million stock repurchase program [11] Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - Total deposits increased by $131 million or 2.7% annualized during Q1 2025, primarily due to a net increase in core deposits [19] - As of March 31, 2025, total uninsured deposits were $8.5 billion, representing 42.7% of total deposits [20] Company Strategy and Development Direction - The company widened its 2025 loan growth guidance to 1% to 4% from the previous guidance of 3% to 4% due to economic uncertainties [11] - The management is closely monitoring the impact of tariffs on borrowers and the loan portfolio, estimating that about 1.4% of total loans could be adversely impacted [8] Management Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - Management expressed concerns about the current economic environment, particularly regarding the impact of tariffs on commercial clients and the potential for loan paydowns [42][43] - There is a noted shift in customer behavior, with some clients pausing growth plans and focusing on managing their balance sheets [40] Other Important Information - The effective tax rate for Q1 2025 was 19.82%, an increase from 7.57% in Q4 2024, primarily due to a decrease in solar tax credit fund investment [27] - The Tier 1 leverage capital ratio increased to 11.06% from 10.97% as of December 31, 2024 [28] Q&A Session Summary Question: Margin sensitivity to interest rate cuts - Management indicated that for every rate cut, the margin would be affected by about four basis points on a full-year basis, with two basis points if it occurs in July [31] Question: Changes in loan growth guidance - Management noted that the pipeline for commercial loans remains strong, but the guidance was revised due to uncertainties related to tariffs and customer behavior [36][38] Question: Specific commercial credit and tariff impact - The reserve built for a specific commercial credit was not related to trade finance, and management is hopeful that the provisions cover most exposure related to tariffs [48] Question: Non-interest expense outlook - Management discussed major expense categories, indicating that salaries and benefits would see an increase due to excess bonus accruals, while consulting expenses are expected to decrease in the second half of the year [54] Question: Deposit growth seasonality - Management confirmed that the Lunar New Year promotion contributed to deposit growth, estimating about $200 million from this seasonal factor [57]

Provident Financial Services (PFS) Q4 2024 Earnings Call January 29, 2025 10:00 AM ET Company Participants Adriano Duarte - Executive VP, Chief Accounting Officer & Investor Relations OfficerAnthony Labozzetta - President & CEOThomas M. Lyons - Senior EVP & CFOMark Fitzgibbon - Head of FSG ResearchTim Switzer - Vice PresidentFeddie Strickland - Director Conference Call Participants Billy Young - AnalystManuel Navas - MD & Senior Research Analyst Operator Good morning, and welcome everyone to the Provident F ...