Group 1 - International silver prices maintained a critical level at $36.30, with a daily high of $36.93 and a low of $36.60, indicating market stability [1] - The U.S. employment report for June exceeded expectations, with the unemployment rate dropping to 4%, suggesting a robust labor market [2] - The optimistic economic data from the U.S. supported a rise in the dollar, impacting silver prices positively [3] Group 2 - Silver prices closed at $36.85, marking a 0.80% increase, and are approaching a double bottom pattern, indicating potential upward movement [3] - A breakthrough above the June 26 high of $36.83 is necessary for silver to challenge the year-to-date high of $37.31 [3] - Key resistance levels for silver are identified at $37.49 and $38.00, while a drop below $36.00 could lead to further declines [3]

欧洲央行管委维勒鲁瓦：必须在利率问题上保持完全的可选择性。 ...

欧洲央行管委维勒鲁瓦：欧洲央行目前在利率和通胀方面处于有利地位。 ...

智通财经7月4日电，欧洲央行管委维勒鲁瓦表示，通胀低于预期的风险正在增加，欧洲央行目前在利率 和通胀方面处于良好地位。 ...

Summary of Key Points Core Viewpoint - The global foreign exchange market is experiencing significant developments, particularly regarding interest rates and currency valuations, which could impact investment strategies and economic forecasts. Group 1: Central Bank Policies - The European Central Bank (ECB) meeting minutes indicate that some members believe current interest rates should be maintained, highlighting concerns about the potential dangers of euro appreciation for exporters [3] - A Reuters survey shows that 19 out of 27 economists expect the Reserve Bank of New Zealand to keep rates at 3.25% on July 9, with 16 out of 22 economists predicting a rate cut to 3.00% in Q3 [3] Group 2: Economic Indicators and Forecasts - U.S. non-farm payroll data exceeded expectations, leading futures traders to abandon bets on a rate cut by the Federal Reserve in July [5] - The labor market in the U.S. remains healthy, with the possibility of prolonged high inflation, according to Federal Reserve official Bostic [5] - The ECB warns that a heatwave could impact inflation and economic growth [5] Group 3: Currency Dynamics - ECB official Demarco stated that the euro is unlikely to replace the dollar as the global reserve currency [5] - The Bank of Japan has revised its salary increase forecast for FY2025 down to 5.25%, maintaining a level above 5% for two consecutive years [5] - The Polish central bank governor mentioned the possibility of a rate cut in September if data permits [5]

美联储博斯蒂克：这将对货币政策的有效性产生影响，使利率更加独立于美联储。 ...

美国财长贝森特：利率由美联储决定。 ...

Core Viewpoint - The U.S. stock market is experiencing a significant rally, driven by a series of better-than-expected macroeconomic data, alleviating concerns about an economic slowdown [2][11]. Economic Data Summary - The U.S. non-farm payrolls for June showed an increase of 147,000, significantly above expectations, while the unemployment rate unexpectedly dropped to 4.1% [11]. - The ISM non-manufacturing index for June reported at 50.8, slightly above the expected 50.5, indicating continued growth in the services sector [12]. - Industrial orders in May increased by 8.2%, marking the largest monthly gain since 2014, with non-defense orders rising by 7.5% [13]. Trade Negotiations Summary - U.S. Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen met with EU negotiators, expressing hope for a principle trade agreement before the upcoming deadline [16]. - Yellen warned that if trade negotiations do not progress, tariffs may revert to previous levels [17]. - The market remains focused on the U.S. Congress's deliberations regarding President Trump's comprehensive tax and spending plan, with a procedural vote passing in the House [21][22]. Stock Market Performance Summary - Major U.S. stock indices, including the Nasdaq and S&P 500, reached all-time highs, with the Nasdaq up 0.97% and the S&P 500 up 0.81% [7]. - Solar stocks showed strong performance, with Sunrun rising over 18% and First Solar increasing over 8% [8]. - Notably, the stock of Brain Rejuvenation Technology surged over 170% in a single day, marking a year-to-date increase of 21,300% [10].

Core Viewpoint - The upcoming U.S. non-farm payroll report will play a crucial role in determining whether the recent downward trend of the U.S. dollar will continue [1] Group 1: Employment Data Impact - The Federal Reserve Chairman Powell believes that persistent inflation and a solid labor market indicate that interest rates should remain at restrictive levels [1] - Any unexpected downturn in the employment report could weaken Powell's position and increase market expectations for a rate cut in the July meeting [1] - Unless the employment data is weaker than expected, the dollar may continue to consolidate before the U.S. holiday on July 4 [1]

Core Viewpoint - The U.S. Treasury Secretary warns that tariffs may rise back to levels seen on April 2 if trade negotiations do not progress [1] Group 1: Trade Negotiations - The Treasury Secretary cautions U.S. trading partners against prolonging trade talks, emphasizing the need for progress [1] - A meeting with EU negotiators is scheduled, but specific outcomes remain uncertain [1] Group 2: U.S. Debt and Market Confidence - The Treasury Secretary expresses confidence in strong domestic and international demand for U.S. Treasury bonds [1] - The debt management process is described as orderly, indicating a stable approach to handling U.S. debt [1] Group 3: Interest Rates and Federal Reserve - Comments suggest that the two-year Treasury yield indicates that overnight rates are too high, with expectations for inflation to decline [1] - Criticism is directed at the Federal Reserve, suggesting that its judgment appears somewhat off [1] - The Treasury Secretary advocates for the Federal Reserve to control spending and adjust budget sizes appropriately [1]