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主要银矿开采商产量跟踪报告及金银比价复盘
Hua Tai Qi Huo· 2025-08-26 11:18
期货研究报告|有色与贵金属专题报告 2025-08-26 主要银矿开采商产量跟踪报告及金银比价复盘 研究院 新能源&有色组 研究员 陈思捷 师橙 021-60828513 从业资格号:F3046665 投资咨询号:Z0014806 封帆 王育武 021-60827969 wangyuwu@htfc.com 从业资格号:F03114162 投资咨询号:Z0022466 投资咨询业务资格: 证监许可【2011】1289 号 近期市场背景及主要白银矿企业情况汇总 当前几大主要白银生产商整体呈"原生矿增量收紧、白银增量依赖伴生"的特点。Fresnillo 25H1 权益银产量 24.9 百万盎司,同比-8% 以上,受 San Julián DOB 接近关停、 Silverstream 退出与主矿区递减及安全事故扰动,但仍维持全年 49–56 百万盎司指引; KGHM 上半年 657 吨,同比-3%,矿石处理量与外购/进料缩减,Sierra Gorda 年中扩 建是后续潜在增量;Newmont 上半年 1,400 万盎司,同比-18%,前期罢工低基数效应 消失且 Peñasquito 采矿序列对白银生产产生了负面影响, ...
贵金属日报:降息预期受阻,市场静待周五全球央行年会-20250819
Hua Tai Qi Huo· 2025-08-19 03:51
Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Ratings - Gold: Neutral [8] - Silver: Cautiously Bullish [9] - Arbitrage: Short the gold-silver ratio on rallies [9] - Options: On Hold [9] 2. Core Views - Due to the resilience of inflation and the employment market shown in the latest US macro data, there are significant differences in the market's short-term expectations for the future interest rate cut rhythm. The Jackson Hole Global Central Bank Annual Meeting is crucial, but it's difficult for Fed Chair Powell to provide clear guidance on the future interest rate path [1][8]. - Global tariff risks have not been fully cleared. India plans a tax reform to boost the economy and cope with tariff shocks, and Germany demands the US to lower tariffs on European cars [1]. - Gold prices are expected to remain volatile in the short term, with the Au2510 contract oscillating between 765 yuan/gram and 795 yuan/gram [8]. - Silver prices are also expected to be volatile, and the convergence logic of the gold-silver ratio provides some impetus. The Ag2508 contract may fluctuate between 9150 yuan/kilogram and 9550 yuan/kilogram [9]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Quotes and Trading Volumes - On August 18, 2025, the Shanghai Gold main contract opened at 775.92 yuan/gram, closed at 777.66 yuan/gram, a 0.24% change from the previous trading day. The trading volume was 41,087 lots, and the open interest was 129,725 lots. The night session closed at 775.04 yuan/gram, a 0.33% decline from the afternoon close [2]. - On August 18, 2025, the Shanghai Silver main contract opened at 9176.00 yuan/kilogram, closed at 9258.00 yuan/kilogram, a 0.59% change from the previous trading day. The trading volume was 298,755 lots, and the open interest was 350,742 lots. The night session closed at 9225 yuan/kilogram, a 0.36% decline from the afternoon close [2]. 3.2 US Treasury Yield and Spread Monitoring - On August 18, 2025, the US 10-year Treasury yield closed at 4.34%, a +1BP change from the previous trading day. The 10-year - 2-year spread was 0.57%, a -1BP change from the previous trading day [3]. 3.3 SHFE Gold and Silver Positions and Trading Volume Changes - On the Au2508 contract, both long and short positions remained unchanged from the previous day. The total trading volume of gold contracts was 163,262 lots, a 10.58% change from the previous trading day [4]. - On the Ag2508 contract, long positions increased by 2 lots, and short positions decreased by 2 lots. The total trading volume of silver contracts was 460,303 lots, a 21.19% change from the previous trading day [4]. 3.4 Precious Metal ETF Position Tracking - The gold ETF position was 965.37 tons, unchanged from the previous trading day. The silver ETF position was 15356.61 tons, an increase of 285.30 tons from the previous trading day [5]. 3.5 Precious Metal Arbitrage Tracking - On August 18, 2025, the domestic gold premium was -5.09 yuan/gram, and the domestic silver premium was -749.80 yuan/kilogram. The ratio of the SHFE gold and silver main contract prices was about 84.00, a 0.52% change from the previous trading day. The overseas gold-silver ratio was 88.64, a 1.19% change from the previous trading day [6]. 3.6 Fundamental Data - On August 18, 2025, the trading volume of gold on the Shanghai Gold Exchange T+d market was 22,224 kilograms, a 4.26% change from the previous trading day. The silver trading volume was 272,182 kilograms, a -2.75% change from the previous trading day. The gold delivery volume was 11,350 kilograms, and the silver delivery volume was 2,610 kilograms [7].
贵金属日报:美就业与通胀韧性仍存,降息前景遇冷-20250815
Hua Tai Qi Huo· 2025-08-15 06:50
Report Industry Investment Rating - Gold: Neutral [8] - Silver: Neutral [9] - Arbitrage: Short the gold-silver ratio on rallies [9] - Options: Hold off [9] Core Viewpoints - The resilience of US employment and inflation has cooled the prospects of interest rate cuts, and precious metal prices are expected to remain volatile in the short term. Attention should be paid to the US retail sales month-on-month rate data for July [1]. - The trading logic of silver prices is still in sync with that of gold, mainly driven by future easing expectations on the macro level, and is expected to remain volatile in the short term under the cooling of interest rate cut expectations [8][9]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Futures Quotes and Trading Volumes - On August 14, 2025, the Shanghai Gold main contract opened at 778.12 yuan/gram and closed at 778.70 yuan/gram, a change of 0.13% from the previous trading day's close. The trading volume was 41,087 lots, and the open interest was 129,725 lots. During the night session, it opened at 776.9 yuan/gram and closed at 774.54 yuan/gram, up 0.53% from the afternoon close [2]. - On August 14, 2025, the Shanghai Silver main contract opened at 9,332.00 yuan/kilogram and closed at 9,286.00 yuan/kilogram, a change of -0.15% from the previous trading day's close. The trading volume was 350,484 lots, and the open interest was 366,680 lots. During the night session, it opened at 9,242 yuan/kilogram and closed at 9,197 yuan/kilogram, down 0.96% from the afternoon close [2]. US Treasury Yield and Spread Monitoring - On August 14, 2025, the US 10-year Treasury yield closed at 4.29%, a change of +5 BP from the previous trading day. The spread between the 10-year and 2-year yields was 0.56%, down 1 BP from the previous trading day [3]. Changes in Positions and Trading Volumes of Gold and Silver on the SHFE - On August 14, 2025, on the Au2508 contract, the long positions changed by -90 lots compared to the previous day, and the short positions changed by 0 lots. The total trading volume of the Shanghai Gold contract on the previous trading day was 188,176 lots, a change of -30.00% from the previous trading day [4]. - On the Ag2508 contract, the long positions changed by -328 lots, and the short positions changed by -408 lots. The total trading volume of the silver contract on the previous trading day was 532,407 lots, a change of -16.86% from the previous trading day [4]. Precious Metal ETF Position Tracking - The gold ETF position was 961.35 tons, a decrease of 2.87 tons from the previous trading day. The silver ETF position was 15,071.31 tons, a decrease of 28.25 tons from the previous trading day [5]. Precious Metal Arbitrage Tracking - On August 14, 2025, the domestic premium for gold was -8.95 yuan/gram, and the domestic premium for silver was -671.04 yuan/kilogram. The ratio of the main contract prices of gold and silver on the SHFE was approximately 83.86, a change of 0.28% from the previous trading day. The ratio of gold and silver prices in the overseas market was 87.08, a change of -1.96% from the previous trading day [6]. Fundamentals - On August 14, 2025, the trading volume of gold on the Shanghai Gold Exchange T+d market was 22,284 kilograms, a change of -31.65% from the previous trading day. The trading volume of silver was 465,346 kilograms, a change of 23.50% from the previous trading day. The gold delivery volume was 11,664 kilograms, and the silver delivery volume was 47,970 kilograms [7]. Strategy - Gold: The short-term price of gold is expected to remain volatile, with the Au2510 contract's oscillation range possibly between 765 yuan/gram and 795 yuan/gram [8]. - Silver: The short-term price of silver is expected to remain volatile, with the Ag2510 contract's oscillation range possibly between 9,015 yuan/kilogram and 9,350 yuan/kilogram [9]. - Arbitrage: Short the gold-silver ratio on rallies [9]. - Options: Hold off [9].
金信期货观点-20250804
Jin Xin Qi Huo· 2025-08-04 08:29
Report Investment Rating - No specific investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. Core Viewpoints - The current correction of silver prices is a technical adjustment in the bull market, caused by temporary factors such as the Fed's hawkish stance, short - term strong US economic data, and domestic policies falling short of expectations. The core logic supporting the long - term strength of silver has been further strengthened during the adjustment. The report maintains the view that domestic silver will break through the 10,000 yuan/kg mark within the third quarter, and the Shanghai silver main contract below 9,000 yuan provides a safety margin. Investors should take advantage of the current correction to build long positions [17][18][19] Summary by Related Catalogs Reasons for Silver Price Correction - The Fed's hawkish stance: In the July FOMC meeting, the Fed kept interest rates unchanged, and Fed Chair Powell's remarks were more hawkish than expected, causing the US dollar index to rise for seven consecutive trading days to 100.09 on August 1st, hitting a new high since the end of May. The stronger US dollar increased the holding cost of silver, pressuring international and domestic silver prices [4] - Short - term strong US economic data: The US GDP annualized growth rate in Q2 reached 3%, significantly exceeding market expectations. The PCE price index in June rose to 2.6% year - on - year, compressing the space for monetary policy shift and pushing up real interest rates, which suppressed the performance of silver [5] - Domestic policy meetings falling short of expectations: The stimulus signals released by the July Politburo economic work meeting did not meet market optimism, leading to a general correction in the domestic commodity market, and silver prices were also pressured. After the meeting, the main contract of Shanghai silver reduced positions and declined, indicating short - term departure of long - position funds [6] Factors Supporting Long - Term Silver Strength - Supply - demand structure tightening: The global silver market is expected to face a supply shortage for the seventh consecutive year in 2025, with a cumulative shortage of 800 million ounces from 2021 - 2025. Mine production has been declining, and industrial demand for silver is growing. Exchange silver inventories have decreased by 18% since the beginning of the year, reaching the lowest level since 2014 [8] - Re - evaluation of financial attributes and hedging value: In the first half of 2025, global silver ETP had a net inflow of 95 million ounces, and retail investment in silver coins and bars in Asia and North America was booming. India's purchases of physical silver and silver ETFs hit record highs. In the context of geopolitical tensions and trade frictions, silver has a unique "dual - wheel drive" pattern [10] - Favorable macro - environment: The probability of the Fed cutting interest rates in September is over 70%, and it is almost certain to cut rates before the end of October. Global major economies' fiscal policies are still in a loose cycle, and post - pandemic excess liquidity will gradually flow into silver [11] - Sufficient momentum for the convergence of gold - silver ratio: The current gold - silver ratio is around 86, still significantly higher than the historical average of 50 - 60. If gold prices remain stable, silver needs to rise to $42 per ounce (about 10,500 yuan/kg in China) for the gold - silver ratio to return to a reasonable level, with a potential upside of over 20% [13] Technical Analysis and Investment Strategy - Technical adjustment: The current correction of silver is a healthy adjustment in the bull market. The main contract of Shanghai silver has strong support in the range of 8,800 - 8,900 yuan, and the price stabilized after a decline on August 1st, indicating that the short - term adjustment is almost over [15] - Investment strategy: The main contract of Shanghai silver below 9,000 yuan provides a safety margin. Investors can adopt the "buy on dips and build positions step - by - step" strategy to establish long positions. Silver is expected to resume its upward trend in August, and investors should seize the current buying opportunity [17][18]
议息会议前美债收益率出现回落迹象
Hua Tai Qi Huo· 2025-07-30 05:05
Report Highlights 1. Investment Rating - Gold: Cautiously bullish [8] - Silver: Cautiously bullish [8] - Arbitrage: Short the gold-silver ratio at high levels [9] - Options: On hold [9] 2. Core Views - Before the Fed's interest rate meeting, U.S. Treasury yields showed signs of decline. The market is waiting for the meeting's outcome. If the Fed unexpectedly cuts interest rates or if Fed Chair Powell is removed, it will be beneficial for the gold price. The silver price has reached a record high, but the photovoltaic sector's weakness may suppress it in the future [1][8][9] 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Market Conditions - **Futures**: On July 29, 2025, the Shanghai gold futures main contract closed at 771.44 yuan/gram, down 0.43% from the previous trading day. The Shanghai silver futures main contract closed at 9,195 yuan/kg, down 0.18% from the previous trading day [2] - **U.S. Treasury Bonds**: On July 29, 2025, the 10-year U.S. Treasury bond yield was 4.42%, down 0.03% from the previous trading day. The 10-2 year spread was 0.48%, down 3 basis points from the previous trading day [3] 3.2 Position and Volume Changes - **Last Trading Day's Volume**: The total trading volume of Shanghai gold contracts was 275,105 lots, down 16.66% from the previous trading day. The total trading volume of Shanghai silver contracts was 738,850 lots, down 52.79% from the previous trading day [4] - **ETF Holdings**: The gold ETF holdings remained unchanged at 956.23 tons from the previous trading day, while the silver ETF holdings increased by 14.13 tons to 15,173.92 tons [5] 3.3 Arbitrage Tracking - **Spot-Futures Spread**: On July 29, 2025, the domestic gold premium was -1.96 yuan/gram, and the domestic silver premium was -680.01 yuan/kg [6] - **Gold-Silver Ratio**: The ratio of the main contracts of gold and silver on the Shanghai Futures Exchange was about 83.90, down 0.25% from the previous trading day. The overseas gold-silver ratio was 86.39, up 0.30% from the previous trading day [6] 3.4 Fundamental Data - **Shanghai Gold Exchange**: On July 29, 2025, the trading volume of gold was 37,834 kg, up 9.01% from the previous trading day. The trading volume of silver was 461,672 kg, down 27.55% from the previous trading day. The gold delivery volume was 14,762 kg, and the silver delivery volume was 6,900 kg [7]
欧美达成部分协议,市场静候议息会议
Hua Tai Qi Huo· 2025-07-29 05:41
1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Gold: Cautiously bullish [8] - Silver: Cautiously bullish [9] - Arbitrage: Short the gold-silver ratio at high levels [9] - Options: On hold [9] 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The gold price remains in a sideways pattern, and the gold-silver ratio has normalized due to the increase in market risk sentiment. The upcoming Fed interest rate meeting may have a significant impact on the market if the Fed unexpectedly cuts rates. The potential removal of Fed Chairman Powell could increase safe-haven demand and benefit the gold price. It is recommended to buy gold on dips for hedging [8]. - The silver price has reached a new high, and there is a need to repair the gold-silver ratio. However, due to its high volatility, attention should be paid to position control and strict stop-loss. The weakening photovoltaic sector may also suppress the silver price in the future. It is recommended to buy silver on dips for hedging [9]. - It is recommended to short the gold-silver ratio at high levels [9]. - It is advisable to put options on hold [9]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market News - The Washington Federal Court rejected the request of an investment firm led by Trump's ally to make the FOMC meeting public. The US Treasury significantly raised its borrowing estimate for the third quarter to $1.007 trillion. The US and the EU reached a trade agreement, slightly alleviating market concerns about future uncertainties and causing precious metals to weaken slightly. The US and the EU are still discussing tariff exemptions for wine and spirits. The Fed interest rate meeting is approaching, and Trump has called for a rate cut this week [1] 3.2 Futures Quotes and Trading Volumes - On July 28, 2025, the Shanghai gold futures main contract opened at 772.82 yuan/gram and closed at 774.78 yuan/gram, down 0.33% from the previous trading day. The trading volume was 41,087 lots, and the open interest was 129,725 lots. The night session closed at 770.84 yuan/gram, down 0.31% from the afternoon session. The Shanghai silver futures main contract opened at 9,350 yuan/kg and closed at 9,212 yuan/kg, down 1.92% from the previous trading day. The trading volume was 1,203,307 lots, and the open interest was 398,421 lots. The night session closed at 9,200 yuan/kg, down 0.27% from the afternoon session [2] 3.3 US Treasury Yield and Spread Monitoring - On July 28, 2025, the US 10-year Treasury yield closed at 4.40%, down 0.03% from the previous trading day. The 10-year - 2-year spread was 51%, up 2 basis points from the previous trading day [3] 3.4 SHFE Gold and Silver Position and Trading Volume Changes - On July 28, 2025, on the Au2508 contract, the long positions decreased by 939 lots, and the short positions decreased by 41 lots. The total trading volume of the Shanghai gold contract was 330,092 lots, down 45.61% from the previous trading day. On the Ag2508 contract, the long positions decreased by 4,184 lots, and the short positions decreased by 4,086 lots. The total trading volume of the Shanghai silver contract was 1,564,987 lots, down 39.34% from the previous trading day [4] 3.5 Precious Metal ETF Position Tracking - The gold ETF position was 956.23 tons, down 0.86 tons from the previous trading day. The silver ETF position was 15,159.79 tons, down 70.64 tons from the previous trading day [5] 3.6 Precious Metal Arbitrage Tracking - On July 28, 2025, the domestic gold premium was -4.52 yuan/gram, and the domestic silver premium was -513.64 yuan/kg. The ratio of the main contracts of gold and silver on the SHFE was about 84.11, down 0.25% from the previous trading day. The overseas gold-silver ratio was 86.39, up 0.30% from the previous trading day [6] 3.7 Fundamental Data - On July 28, 2025, the trading volume of gold on the Shanghai Gold Exchange T + D market was 34,706 kg, down 36.38% from the previous trading day. The trading volume of silver was 637,268 kg, down 44.82% from the previous trading day. The gold delivery volume was 13,848 kg, and the silver delivery volume was 28,080 kg [7]
风险情绪滋生下,白银价格表现强劲
Hua Tai Qi Huo· 2025-07-23 05:32
1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Gold: Cautiously bullish [8] - Silver: Cautiously bullish [9] - Arbitrage: Short the gold-silver ratio at high levels [10] - Options: On hold [10] 2. Core View of the Report - The silver price has been strong recently, hitting a new high, and there is a need to repair the gold-silver ratio. If market risk sentiment rebounds, it will be relatively beneficial for silver. The operation for both gold and silver is mainly to buy on dips for hedging. For arbitrage, short the gold-silver ratio at high levels, and put options on hold [8][9][10] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Futures Quotes and Trading Volumes - On July 22, 2025, the Shanghai gold main contract opened at 784.70 yuan/gram and closed at 784.84 yuan/gram, a change of 0.40% from the previous trading day's close. The trading volume was 41,087 lots, and the open interest was 129,725 lots. The night session opened at 788.50 yuan/gram and closed at 792.94 yuan/gram, up 0.91% from the afternoon close. The Shanghai silver main contract opened at 9,301.00 yuan/kilogram and closed at 9,393.00 yuan/kilogram, a change of 1.32% from the previous trading day's close. The trading volume was 961,563 lots, and the open interest was 476,010 lots. The night session opened at 9,442 yuan/kilogram and closed at 9,453 yuan/kilogram, up 0.75% from the afternoon close [2] U.S. Treasury Yield and Spread Monitoring - On July 22, 2025, the U.S. 10-year Treasury yield closed at 4.38%, a change of -0.03% from the previous trading day. The spread between the 10-year and 2-year was 0.52%, down 1 basis point from the previous trading day [3] Changes in Positions and Trading Volumes of Gold and Silver on the Shanghai Futures Exchange - On the Au2508 contract on July 22, 2025, the long positions changed by -1,071 lots compared to the previous day, and the short positions changed by -1,243 lots. The total trading volume of Shanghai gold contracts the previous trading day was 290,023 lots, a change of 0.01% from the previous trading day. In the case of Shanghai silver, on the Ag2508 contract, the long positions changed by -2,522 lots, and the short positions changed by -3,835 lots. The total trading volume of silver contracts the previous trading day was 1,238,108 lots, a change of 40.57% from the previous trading day [4] Tracking of Precious Metal ETF Positions - For precious metal ETFs, the gold ETF position was 954.80 tons the previous day, an increase of 7.74 tons from the previous trading day. The silver ETF position was 15,158.37 tons, an increase of 152.58 tons from the previous trading day [5] Tracking of Precious Metal Arbitrage - On July 22, 2025, the domestic premium for gold was -5.49 yuan/gram, and the domestic premium for silver was -853.24 yuan/kilogram. The price ratio of the main gold and silver contracts on the Shanghai Futures Exchange the previous day was about 83.56, a change of -0.90% from the previous trading day, and the overseas gold-silver ratio was 87.41, a change of -0.67% from the previous trading day [6] Fundamentals - On July 22, 2025, the trading volume of gold on the Shanghai Gold Exchange's T+d market was 49,546 kilograms, a change of 23.06% from the previous trading day. The trading volume of silver was 537,430 kilograms, a change of 78.67% from the previous trading day. The gold delivery volume was 17,208 kilograms, and the silver delivery volume was 26,070 kilograms [7]
贝森特称若通胀数据低则应该降息
Hua Tai Qi Huo· 2025-07-22 05:18
1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Gold: Cautiously bullish [8] - Silver: Cautiously bullish [9] - Arbitrage: Short the gold-silver ratio at high levels [9] - Options: Put on hold [9] 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The price of gold has been in a volatile pattern since May, and Trump's tariff policy is changeable. Although the impact of tariffs on the US CPI in June is not obvious, there are still significant differences among Fed officials regarding future interest rate outlooks. The market is also concerned about whether Trump will replace Fed Chairman Powell. However, according to the pricing of interest rate futures, future interest rate cuts are still a high probability event. For gold and silver, it is recommended to buy on dips for hedging. There is a need to repair the gold-silver ratio, and if market risk sentiment recovers, it will be beneficial to silver. For arbitrage, short the gold-silver ratio at high levels, and put options on hold [8][9]. 3. Summary According to Related Catalogs 3.1 Strategy Summary - US Treasury Secretary Bessent said that if inflation data is low, interest rates should be cut. Trump has no plan to fire Powell for now, but some Republican lawmakers have provided criminal charges against Powell to the judicial department, which may be one of the reasons for the relatively strong performance of gold and silver yesterday. Bessent also said that if secondary sanctions are imposed on Russia, he will urge Europe to follow the US. Trump Media & Technology Group has purchased a total of $2 billion in Bitcoin reserves and plans to continue acquisitions. The US and Germany are close to reaching an agreement to provide air defense systems to Ukraine, involving two Patriot missile systems [1]. 3.2 Futures Quotes and Trading Volumes - On July 21, 2025, the Shanghai gold futures main contract opened at 780.10 yuan/gram and closed at 781.70 yuan/gram, up 0.60% from the previous trading day. The trading volume was 41,087 lots, and the open interest was 129,725 lots. In the night session, it opened at 784.70 yuan/gram and closed at 785.76 yuan/gram, up 0.76% from the afternoon session. The Shanghai silver futures main contract opened at 9,286.00 yuan/kg and closed at 9,271.00 yuan/kg, down 0.02% from the previous trading day. The trading volume was 694,363 lots, and the open interest was 467,534 lots. In the night session, it opened at 9,301 yuan/kg and closed at 9,420 yuan/kg, up 1.85% from the afternoon session [2]. 3.3 US Treasury Yield and Spread Monitoring - On July 21, 2025, the yield of the 10-year US Treasury bond closed at 4.44%, down 0.03% from the previous trading day. The spread between the 10-year and 2-year bonds was 3%, down 3 basis points from the previous trading day [3]. 3.4 Changes in Positions and Trading Volumes of Gold and Silver on the Shanghai Futures Exchange - On the Au2508 contract, long positions decreased by 1,123 lots compared with the previous day, and short positions decreased by 181 lots. The total trading volume of Shanghai gold contracts on the previous trading day was 290,005 lots, down 43.67% from the previous trading day. On the Ag2508 contract, long positions decreased by 4,269 lots, and short positions decreased by 1,884 lots. The total trading volume of silver contracts on the previous trading day was 880,780 lots, down 5.68% from the previous trading day [4]. 3.5 Tracking of Precious Metal ETF Positions - On the previous trading day, the gold ETF position was 947.06 tons, up 3.44 tons from the previous trading day. The silver ETF position was 15,005.79 tons, up 347.58 tons from the previous trading day [5]. 3.6 Tracking of Precious Metal Arbitrage - On July 21, 2025, the domestic premium of gold was 2.07 yuan/gram, and the domestic premium of silver was -668.05 yuan/kg. The price ratio of the main gold and silver contracts on the Shanghai Futures Exchange was about 84.32, down 1.06% from the previous trading day, and the overseas gold-silver ratio was 87.58, down 0.67% from the previous trading day [6]. 3.7 Fundamentals - On July 21, 2025, the trading volume of gold on the Shanghai Gold Exchange T+D market was 40,262 kg, down 23.04% from the previous trading day. The trading volume of silver was 300,788 kg, up 43.25% from the previous trading day. The delivery volume of gold was 10,234 kg, and the delivery volume of silver was 74,070 kg [7].
比黄金更疯!白银暴涨35%创13年新高
Sou Hu Cai Jing· 2025-07-16 12:37
Group 1 - Silver prices have surged to a historical peak of $39 per ounce, marking the highest level since 2011, with a year-to-date increase of over 35% as of July 14, 2025, compared to gold's 27% increase [2][3] - Retail demand for silver products has seen a significant increase, with sales of silver bars and coins rising by 40% year-on-year, indicating a strong market interest [4] - The gold-silver ratio has rapidly corrected, dropping from over 100 in April-May to around 87, suggesting that silver was previously undervalued and has potential for further gains [4] Group 2 - The photovoltaic (PV) industry is the largest driver of silver demand, with global PV installations expected to exceed 600 GW in 2024, leading to a substantial increase in silver consumption [5] - Semiconductor and electric vehicle sectors are also contributing to silver demand, with the latter showing a 21% to 71% increase in silver usage per vehicle compared to traditional cars [5] - Global silver demand is projected at approximately 36,700 tons in 2024, while supply is only around 31,700 tons, resulting in a supply deficit of 5,000 tons, which is expected to widen in 2025 [5] Group 3 - Investment banks are divided in their outlook for silver, with some raising price forecasts while others warn of a potential end to the current bullish trend due to signs of reduced investment demand [6] - Technical analysis suggests a bullish outlook, with potential price targets of $40 and $50 if key resistance levels are broken [6] - The industrial demand for silver has risen to 70% of total demand, indicating a shift from its traditional role as a safe-haven asset to a growth asset driven by technological advancements [8] Group 4 - The Federal Reserve's monetary policy is a critical variable for silver prices, with expectations of interest rate cuts potentially boosting silver prices further [8] - The volatility of silver prices is a concern, with historical data showing that silver's volatility is about 1.5 times that of gold, necessitating risk management strategies for investors [9] - The ongoing industrial revolution in silver is reshaping the precious metals market, with increasing ETF holdings and a return to historical gold-silver ratio averages indicating a potential revaluation driven by green energy [10]
白银狂奔的下一站...
对冲研投· 2025-07-16 11:57
Core Viewpoint - The recent surge in silver prices is primarily driven by China's "anti-involution" policy, which stabilizes profits and operating rates in the photovoltaic (PV) industry, thereby supporting silver demand in this sector [3][4][16]. Group 1: Silver Price Trends - As of July 14, 2025, the main silver futures contract on the Shanghai Futures Exchange closed at 9,207 CNY/kg, marking a nearly 14-year high with an annual increase of 23.25% [3]. - The gold-silver ratio has significantly decreased from a high of 101.5507 on April 22 to 84.8779, indicating a recovery in silver prices relative to gold [3][12]. Group 2: Photovoltaic Industry Impact - The "anti-involution" policy aims to rectify disorderly competition in the PV industry, optimizing resource allocation and promoting high-quality economic development, which is expected to stabilize profit levels and maintain operating rates [4][8]. - In 2024, global physical silver demand (excluding ETFs) is projected to be 37,200 tons, a decrease of 3.1% year-on-year, with industrial demand expected to rise by 1.7% to 22,300 tons [4]. Group 3: Short-term Demand Resilience - From January to May 2025, China's newly installed PV capacity reached 197.85 GW, accounting for 71% of the total expected for 2024, indicating strong short-term silver demand [8]. - The overall profit in the PV industry is expected to stabilize or even improve under the support of the policy, suggesting that silver consumption in the PV sector may exceed current market expectations [8]. Group 4: Trade Risks and Market Dynamics - There are concerns regarding potential tariffs on silver imports from Mexico, a major silver supplier to the U.S., although current price structures indicate that trade flows have not been significantly affected [14][16]. - The current price difference between London and New York silver markets remains normal, with no significant trade flow anomalies observed due to tariff concerns [14].