| | | | | 国贸期货研究院 | | 投资咨询号: Z0013700 | | | 2026/1/6 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | | | 贵金属与新能源研究中心 白素娜 | | 从业资格号:F3023916 | | | | | | | 伦敦金现 | 伦敦银现 | COMEX黄金 | COMEX白银 | AU2602 | AG2602 | AU (T+D) | AG (T+D) | | 内外盘金 | 日期 | (美元/盎司) | (美元/盎司) | (美元/盎司) | (美元/盎司) | (元/克) | (元/千克) | (元/克) | (元/千克) | | 银15点价 | 2026/1/5 | 4420. 31 | 75.44 | 4429.90 | 75. 25 | 995.00 | 18260.00 | 992. 10 | 18296.00 | | 格跟踪 (本表数 | | | | | | | | | | | 据来源: | 2025/12/31 | 4329.08 | 71.93 | 434 ...

2 2017 投资咨询业务资格:证监许可【2012】31号 贵金属数据日报 | | | | | 国贸期货研究院 | | 投资咨询号: Z0013700 | | | 2026/1/5 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | | | 贵金属与新能源研究中心 白素娜 | | 从业资格号:F3023916 | | | | | 内外盘金 | 日期 | 伦敦金现 | 伦敦银现 | COMEX黄金 | COMEX白银 | AU2602 | AG2602 | AU (T+D) | AG (T+D) | | 银15点价 | | (美元/盎司) | (美元/盎司) | (美元/盎司) | (美元/盎司) | (元/克) | (元/千克) | (元/克) | (元/千克) | | 格跟踪 | 2025/12/31 | 4329.08 | 71.93 | 4340. 70 | 71. 54 | 977.56 | 17103.00 | 976. 77 | 17080.00 | | (本表数 | | | | | | | | | | | 据 ...

当现货白银价格冲破73美元/盎司的历史关口时，贵金属市场的聚光灯突然从黄金转向了这个"平民贵金属"。这个数字背后，是地缘政治紧张局势、通胀预 期与工业需求三股力量的罕见共振。与黄金相比，白银的波动往往更为剧烈——这次150%的年度涨幅，正在重演2020年疫情初期那场令人记忆犹深的逼空 行情。 地缘政治的火药桶效应 俄乌冲突持续发酵、中东局势再度紧张，这些地缘政治风险因素让贵金属的避险功能被无限放大。值得注意的是，白银ETF持仓量近期出现显著回升，表明 机构投资者正在重新配置这一资产。与黄金相比，白银的市场规模较小，同样的资金流入会产生更显著的价格波动。 历史总是惊人地相似。回顾2020年8月，白银曾在疫情恐慌中单日暴涨8%，当时市场同样充斥着对货币超发的担忧。如今美联储加息周期接近尾声，美元指 数高位回落，贵金属再次成为对冲通胀的理想工具。不同的是，这次白银的工业需求端提供了更强的支撑。 百度图片 白银的"分裂人格"正在升值 作为兼具金融属性和工业属性的特殊商品，白银价格历来呈现"双重波动"特征。当前每盎司73.4393美元的价格，既包含着市场对中东局势的避险溢价，也 蕴含着光伏产业对银浆的旺盛需求。数据显示 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core View of the Report - Driven by the Fed's loose monetary policy expectations, gold and silver prices have continued to rise strongly, hitting new historical highs. Silver has benefited more from the Fed's loose expectations, with a significantly higher increase than gold, and the gold - silver ratio has dropped to 61.6 [2]. - The economic data released recently do not reflect the improvement of the US economic fundamentals but rather the resilience of the price level. The market has strengthened the expectation of a dovish new Fed chairman and the pricing of the subsequent interest - rate cut amplitude. The market expects the Fed to cut interest rates by 25 basis points in the March and July FOMC meetings next year [3]. - From the perspective of the overseas medium - term monetary policy trend, as the Fed cuts interest rates and expands its balance sheet simultaneously, gold and silver prices will continue to perform strongly. It is recommended to hold existing long positions. The reference operating range for the main contract of Shanghai gold is 983 - 1150 yuan/gram, and that for the main contract of Shanghai silver is 16360 - 20000 yuan/kilogram [4]. 3. Summary According to Related Catalogs 3.1 Market Quotes - Shanghai gold rose 1.07% to 1019.60 yuan/gram, and Shanghai silver rose 5.50% to 18131.00 yuan/kilogram. COMEX gold was reported at 4530.40 US dollars/ounce, and COMEX silver was reported at 73.35 US dollars/ounce. The US 10 - year Treasury yield was reported at 4.15%, and the US dollar index was reported at 97.95 [2]. 3.2 Economic Data - The preliminary annualized quarterly - on - quarterly value of the US real GDP in the third quarter was 4.3%, higher than the expected 3.3% and the previous value of 3.8%. The US GDP price index in the third quarter was 3.8%, higher than the expected 2.7% and the previous value of 2.1%. The year - on - year value of the US PCE price index in the third quarter was 2.7%, higher than the previous value of 2.4% [3]. 3.3 Data Changes - For gold, on December 25, 2025, compared with the previous day, the closing price of COMEX gold's active contract decreased by 0.21%, the trading volume decreased by 37.91%, the position increased by 8.91%, and the inventory remained unchanged. The closing price of LBMA gold increased by 0.71%. The closing price of SHFE gold's active contract decreased by 0.58%, the trading volume decreased by 37.41%, the position decreased by 0.89%, the inventory remained unchanged, and the precipitation funds flowed out by 1.47%. The closing price of AuT + D decreased by 0.42%, the trading volume decreased by 48.02%, and the position increased by 2.11% [6]. - For silver, on December 25, 2025, compared with the previous day, the closing price of COMEX silver's active contract increased by 0.37%, the position decreased by 1.19%, and the inventory increased by 0.10%. The closing price of LBMA silver increased by 0.75%. The closing price of SHFE silver's active contract decreased by 1.20%, the trading volume increased by 1.64%, the position decreased by 3.60%, the inventory decreased by 3.35%, and the precipitation funds flowed out by 4.76%. The closing price of AgT + D decreased by 1.69%, the trading volume decreased by 50.32%, and the position decreased by 1.74% [6]. 3.4 Market Expectations - The market expects the Fed to cut interest rates by 25 basis points in the March and July FOMC meetings next year, as shown by the CME interest - rate observer [3]. 3.5 Strategy Suggestion - Hold existing long positions. The reference operating range for the main contract of Shanghai gold is 983 - 1150 yuan/gram, and that for the main contract of Shanghai silver is 16360 - 20000 yuan/kilogram [4].

新能源及有色金属日报 | 2025-12-25 期货行情与成交量： 2025-12-24，沪金主力合约开于1015.00元/克，收于1014.68元/克，较前一交易日收盘变动0.04%。当日成交量为41087 手，持仓量为129725手。昨日夜盘沪金主力合约开于1013.94元/克，收于1010.30元/克，较昨日午后收盘下跌0.43%。 2025-12-24，沪银主力合约开于16510.00元/千克，收于17609.00元/千克，较前一交易日收盘变动7.10%。当日成交 量为1367254手，持仓量为348865手。昨日夜盘沪银主力合约开于17630元/千克，收于17211元/千克，较昨日午后 收盘下跌2.26%。 美债收益率与利差监控： 2025-12-24，美国10年期国债利率收于4.136%，较前一交易日持平，10年期与2年期利差为0.63%，较前一交易日持 平。 上期所金银持仓与成交量变化情况： 2025-12-24，Au2602合约上，多头较前一日变化-6755手，空头则是变化-3264手。沪金合约上个交易日总成交量为 491223手，较前一交易日变化29.19%。在沪银方面，在Ag2602合约上 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article highlights that silver prices are experiencing a bullish trend, driven by a combination of macroeconomic factors and industrial demand, with significant inflows into the silver market [1][1][1] - The largest silver ETF, iShares Silver Trust (SLV), saw an increase in holdings by 533.01 tons, marking the largest single-day increase since January 2023, bringing total holdings to 16,599.25 tons [1][1][1] - Industrial demand for silver has risen to 55%, driven by sectors such as photovoltaics and electric vehicles, while global visible inventories remain below safe levels, supporting the price recovery of silver [1][1][1] Group 2 - A survey conducted by Kitco News among 352 retail investors indicated that over 50% of respondents expect silver to be the best-performing metal again by 2026 [1][1][1] - In the latest trading session, silver prices surged, indicating a short-term bullish trend, supported by positive signals and trading above the 50-day EMA, which suggests potential for further gains [1][1][1]

期货行情与成交量： 贵金属日报 | 2025-12-23 宽松预期持续演绎 贵金属继续走强 市场分析 美联储理事米兰表示，如果美联储明年不继续降息，可能面临引发经济衰退的风险。他还表示，预计短期内不会 出现经济下行，但失业率上升应促使美联储官员继续降息。关于新任美联储主席，美国总统特朗普将在明年1月第 一周指定选出；而特朗普此前表示，他希望选择一位支持增长友好型货币政策的继任者。地缘方面，欧盟决定将 针对俄罗斯的经济制裁再延长6个月，至2026年7月31日。制裁措施覆盖贸易、金融、能源、技术及军民两用物项、 工业、交通运输等多领域。此外，欧盟推出针对规避制裁行为的专项反制措施。 2025-12-22，沪金主力合约开于979.90元/克，收于1000.86元/克，较前一交易日收盘变动2.14%。当日成交量为41087 手，持仓量为129725手。昨日夜盘沪金主力合约开于999.36元/克，收于1003.08元/克，较昨日午后收盘上涨0.22%。 2025-12-22，沪银主力合约开于15374.00元/千克，收于16210.00元/千克，较前一交易日收盘变动5.42%。当日成交 量为1704712手，持仓量为3 ...

热点栏目 自选股 数据中心 行情中心 资金流向 模拟交易 客户端 来源：华泰期货 作者： 新能源有色金属组 贵金属延续强势表现，主力合约沪银2602收于16210元/千克，涨幅达6.06%；主力合约沪金2602收于 1000.86元/克，涨幅达2.10%。在贵金属ETF方面，12月19日当周（目前最新）黄金SPDR ETF持仓量1， 052.54吨，白银SLV ETF持仓量16，018吨。 责任编辑：朱赫楠 热点栏目 自选股 数据中心 行情中心 资金流向 模拟交易 客户端 来源：华泰期货 作者： 新能源有色金属组 宏观方面，美国11月非农就业人口增加6.4万人，高于市场预期的5万人；但失业率却意外升至4.6%，创 下2021年9月以来的新高。另外，10月非农就业大幅减少10.5万人，远超预期的下降2.5万人；8月和9 月 也合计下修3.3万人。11月平均时薪同比增长3.5%，为2021年5月以来最低增速。较为弱势的就业数据可 能推动美联储维持宽松的货币政策取向。通胀方面，美国11月核心CPI同比上涨2.6%，创下2021年初以 来最慢增速，低于市场预期的3%。 整体CPI同比上涨 2.7%，低于预期的3.1% ...

美国11月非农就业数据好坏参半，市场对明年降息保持乐观预期，将驱动白银价格进一步上涨。美联储 12月降息仍属于"预防式降息"范畴，在政策利率回归中性后，后续降息门槛将进一步提高。此外，白银 供应紧张预期持续发酵，叠加市场情绪乐观，短期白银价格偏强运行为主。但随着利多逐渐被市场消 化，以及资金可能获利离场，交易者需警惕市场情绪转变引发的白银价格大幅调整风险。 美国非农数据好坏参半 12月16日，因10月和11月美国联邦政府"停摆"而延迟发布的非农就业报告显示，11月非农就业人口增加 6.4万人，好于市场预期的增加5万人。10月美国就业岗位减少了10.5万个，降幅明显超过市场预期，其 中政府部门就业大幅下滑。失业率从9月的4.4%意外攀升至11月的4.6%，达2021年9月以来的最高。 从行业分布来看，就业结构的分化仍然突出。11月大部分新增就业来自近几年迅速扩张的医疗照护行 业，11月新增就业4.6万人，与过去12个月平均每月新增3.9万人的水平大致一致。此外，建筑业也增加 了2.8万个就业。在过去12个月中，建筑业就业整体变化不大。社会救助相关岗位增加1.8万人，其中， 个人和家庭服务领域新增1.3万人。 值 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Gold: Cautiously bullish [8] - Silver: Cautiously bullish [8] - Arbitrage: Go long on the gold-silver ratio on dips [8] - Options: Put on hold [9] 2. Core View of the Report - With the growing expectation of continuous monetary easing and the emergence of market risk sentiment, the demand for gold investment may increase slightly. It is expected that the gold price will be in a slightly bullish oscillation pattern in the near term, with the Au2602 contract oscillating between 950 yuan/gram and 1000 yuan/gram. Silver has been hitting new historical highs, and the gold-silver ratio has been narrowing. The price of silver is also expected to maintain a slightly bullish oscillation pattern, with the Ag2602 contract oscillating between 14900 yuan/kg and 15900 yuan/kg [8]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs Market Analysis - Fed Governor Waller stated that with a weakening job market and controlled inflation, the Fed still has 50 to 100 basis points of room for interest rate cuts, but no drastic action is needed based on the current economic outlook. Geopolitically, US President Trump ordered a "total and complete blockade" of all sanctioned oil tankers entering and leaving Venezuela and labeled the Venezuelan government a "foreign terrorist organization." US and Russian officials are expected to meet in Miami this weekend, and relevant plans are still being formulated [1]. Futures Quotes and Trading Volumes - On December 17, 2025, the Shanghai gold futures main contract opened at 972.50 yuan/gram and closed at 979.72 yuan/gram, a 0.85% change from the previous trading day's close. The trading volume was 41,087 lots, and the open interest was 129,725 lots. In the night session, it opened at 977.00 yuan/gram and closed at 982.48 yuan/gram, a 0.28% increase from the afternoon close. The Shanghai silver futures main contract opened at 14,690.00 yuan/kg and closed at 15,512.00 yuan/kg, a 5.77% change from the previous trading day's close. The trading volume was 1,627,068 lots, and the open interest was 388,994 lots. In the night session, it opened at 15,447 yuan/kg and closed at 15,594 yuan/kg, a 0.53% increase from the afternoon close [2]. US Treasury Yield and Spread Monitoring - On December 17, 2025, the US 10-year Treasury yield closed at 4.153%, unchanged from the previous trading day. The spread between the 10-year and 2-year Treasuries was 0.672%, also unchanged from the previous trading day [3]. Changes in Positions and Trading Volumes of Gold and Silver on the Shanghai Futures Exchange - On the Au2602 contract, the long positions increased by 1,825 lots compared to the previous day, while the short positions decreased by 846 lots. The total trading volume of Shanghai gold contracts the previous trading day was 350,879 lots, a 9.75% decrease from the previous trading day. On the Ag2602 contract, the long positions increased by 11,227 lots, and the short positions increased by 13,690 lots. The total trading volume of silver contracts the previous trading day was 2,872,967 lots, a 6.50% increase from the previous trading day [4]. Tracking of Precious Metal ETF Holdings - The gold ETF holdings remained unchanged at 1,051.69 tons compared to the previous trading day, while the silver ETF holdings decreased by 43 tons to 16,018 tons [5]. Precious Metal Arbitrage Tracking - On December 17, 2025, the domestic gold premium was -8.81 yuan/gram, and the domestic silver premium was -1,455.85 yuan/kg. The price ratio of the main gold and silver contracts on the Shanghai Futures Exchange was approximately 63.16, a 4.65% decrease from the previous trading day, and the overseas gold-silver ratio was 67.90, a 0.02% decrease from the previous trading day [6]. Fundamentals - On December 17, 2025, the trading volume of gold on the Shanghai Gold Exchange's T+d market was 49,760 kg, a 28.88% decrease from the previous trading day. The trading volume of silver was 1,320,846 kg, a 24.09% increase from the previous trading day. The gold delivery volume was 11,872 kg, and the silver delivery volume was 1,200 kg [7].