贵金属日报 | 2025-11-19 特朗普称选定美联储主席人选 ADP周度就业数据弱势 市场分析 美联储方面，特朗普表示自己已经选定了下一任美联储主席的人选；贝森特表示，他已将候选范围缩小至以下人 选：现任美联储理事沃勒和鲍曼，前美联储理事沃什，白宫国家经济委员会主任哈塞特，以及贝莱德公司高管里 德。"小非农"ADP周度就业数据显示，截至11月1日的四周，美国私营部门就业人数平均每周减少2500人。另外， 美国劳工部数据显示，截至10月18日当周，美国初请失业金人数23.2万人，续请失业金人数小幅上升至195.7万人。 期货行情与成交量： 2025-11-18，沪金主力合约开于932.26元/克，收于918.52元/克，较前一交易日收盘变动-1.18%。当日成交量为41087 手，持仓量为129725手。昨日夜盘沪金主力合约开于922.54元/克，收于929.84元/克，较昨日午后收盘上涨1.23%。 2025-11-18，沪银主力合约开于11975.00元/千克，收于11699.00元/千克，较前一交易日收盘变动-1.96%。当日成交 量为1157926手，持仓量为322401手。昨日夜盘沪银主力合约开于 ...

Core Viewpoint - Silver has experienced a significant price surge, outperforming gold, with the London spot silver price surpassing $53 per ounce and an annual increase of over 85% as of November 12, 2025, driven by multiple favorable factors [3] Group 1: Silver's Attributes and Price Drivers - Silver's price is influenced by its financial and commodity attributes, with the gold-silver ratio being a key indicator. Historically, this ratio fluctuates between 40 and 127, with a central value around 68. As of April 2025, the ratio reached a high of 105, indicating potential for silver price appreciation as it reverts to historical averages [4] - The commodity attribute of silver is crucial, as it is essential in high-tech manufacturing sectors like electronics, photovoltaics, and automotive industries. Industrial applications account for nearly 60% of total silver demand, with the photovoltaic sector alone representing about 17% [5] Group 2: Market Dynamics and Investment Strategies - The recent strong performance of silver is attributed to its three attributes working in concert. A weaker US dollar and expectations of Federal Reserve rate cuts have increased the appeal of silver as a dollar-denominated asset. Additionally, ongoing geopolitical tensions and US debt issues have enhanced the allure of precious metals as safe-haven assets [5] - For investors, understanding silver's unique market characteristics and investment channels is essential. Investment methods include virtual investments (like silver ETFs and futures) and physical investments (such as silver bars and coins). Silver is likened to a "small-cap stock" in the precious metals sector, with its lower market capitalization making it more sensitive to capital inflows [6][7] Group 3: Investment Outlook - In the current market environment, silver can be viewed as an "enhanced" alternative to gold, benefiting from both gold's upward momentum and additional growth from industrial demand and the renewable energy revolution. As global economic expectations improve, silver is positioned to potentially outperform gold due to its stronger commodity attributes [7] - It is advisable for investors to consider including silver in their diversified portfolios, employing a strategy of gradual accumulation and monitoring the gold-silver ratio to optimize investment returns [7]

Core Insights - Domestic futures contracts showed a mixed performance with low sulfur fuel oil dropping over 4% and SC crude oil and fuel oil declining over 3% [1] - Precious metals like silver and tin saw significant gains, with silver rising nearly 5% and tin increasing over 2% [1] Market Performance - Low sulfur fuel oil (LU) decreased by more than 4% - SC crude oil and fuel oil fell by over 3% - Caustic soda and liquefied petroleum gas (LPG) dropped by more than 1% - Silver rose nearly 5%, tin increased over 2%, while gold and pure benzene saw gains of over 1% [1] Futures Contract Details - Silver futures (护银2512) reached 12,481 with a daily increase of 4.58% [2] - Tin futures (护锡2512) stood at 297,240 with a rise of 1.97% [2] - Gold futures (护金2512) were at 962.78, up by 1.72% [2] - Crude oil futures (原油2512) were priced at 449.3, down by 3.71% [2] Economic Context - The retirement announcement of Atlanta Fed President Bostic is expected to influence market expectations regarding monetary policy, potentially leading to a more dovish stance from the Federal Reserve [3] - The U.S. House is set to vote on a bill to end the government shutdown, which is likely to release funds that could positively impact market liquidity and support precious metal prices [3] - The current phase of the Federal Reserve's easing cycle is still in its early stages, suggesting a strategy of buying silver on dips may be beneficial [3]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided on the report industry investment rating 2. Core View of the Report - The reopening of the US government creates fundamental bearish factors for precious metal prices, especially international gold prices, from the perspective of easing recession trading. However, the previous pressure on gold and silver prices was mainly due to liquidity tightening rather than strong overseas economic fundamentals. Therefore, in the context of the restoration of US dollar liquidity, the prices of gold and silver, as important major assets, will be boosted in the short term [3] - It is recommended to go long on silver at low prices. The reference operating range for the main contract of Shanghai gold is 927 - 968 yuan/gram, and the reference operating range for the main contract of Shanghai silver is 11,575 - 12,366 yuan/kilogram [3] 3. Summary by Relevant Content Market Quotes - On November 11, 2025, Shanghai gold rose 2.23% to 944.76 yuan/gram, Shanghai silver rose 3.09% to 11,868.00 yuan/kilogram; COMEX gold was reported at 4,123.40 US dollars/ounce, COMEX silver was reported at 50.41 US dollars/ounce; the yield of 10 - year US Treasury bonds was reported at 4.13%, and the US dollar index was reported at 99.62 [2] - As of November 11, the gold - silver ratio was 81.5, still significantly higher than the historical average of 62 since 1971 [3] Macroeconomic Situation in the US - Since the "Big and Beautiful" bill was officially passed in July 2025 and the debt ceiling issue was resolved, the balance of the US Treasury's cash (TGA account) on the Fed's liability side has continued to rise, from 311.1 billion US dollars on July 9 to 852 billion US dollars on October 15. Due to the government shutdown, the TGA account balance reached 942.7 billion US dollars on November 5, and the deposit reserve scale dropped from 29.8 million US dollars at the beginning of October to 28.5 million US dollars. The spread between the US Secured Overnight Financing Rate (SOFR) and the effective federal funds rate significantly widened, reaching a high of 0.36% on October 31. The US dollar index was strong, and precious metal prices and overseas equity markets were significantly under pressure [2] Market Charts and Data Tables - The report provides multiple charts and data tables, including the relationship between gold and silver prices, trading volume, open interest, and other data, as well as the relationship between precious metal prices and the US dollar index, real interest rates, and other factors, and the internal and external price differences of gold and silver [6][51]

Report Investment Rating - Gold: Neutral [8] - Silver: Neutral [8] - Arbitrage: Short the gold-silver ratio at high levels [8] - Options: On hold [9] Core View - The U.S. government shutdown has tied the historical record, and the precious metals market continues to oscillate weakly. With the fading of market risk aversion, the demand for gold investment may slightly decline. The gold price is expected to be in an oscillatory pattern, and the silver price is also showing an oscillatory situation. The Fed's interest rate cut path has widened in December, and short-term risk aversion catalysts have weakened [1][8]. Market Analysis - The U.S. federal government shutdown has entered the 35th day, tying the longest shutdown record in U.S. history. The Democrats and Republicans have been deadlocked, and the Senate has failed to pass a temporary appropriation bill in 13 votes. The U.S. Supreme Court will hear the case of whether Trump's tariff policy is legal this Wednesday, and the U.S. Treasury Secretary will go to the Supreme Court to emphasize the importance of tariffs [1]. Futures Quotes and Trading Volume - On November 4, 2025, the Shanghai gold main contract opened at 921.90 yuan/gram and closed at 915.58 yuan/gram, a change of -0.76% from the previous trading day's close. The trading volume was 41,087 lots, and the open interest was 129,725 lots. The night session closed at 908.92 yuan/gram, down 0.73% from the afternoon close. The Shanghai silver main contract opened at 11,455.00 yuan/kilogram and closed at 11,238.00 yuan/kilogram, a change of -1.89% from the previous trading day's close. The trading volume was 783,853 lots, and the open interest was 257,090 lots. The night session closed at 11,226 yuan/kilogram, down 0.11% from the afternoon close [2]. U.S. Treasury Yield and Spread Monitoring - On November 4, 2025, the U.S. 10-year Treasury yield closed at 4.081%, a decrease of 2.91 BP from the previous trading day. The spread between the 10-year and 2-year Treasuries was 0.511%, a change of +0.58 BP from the previous trading day [3]. Position and Trading Volume Changes of Gold and Silver on the SHFE - On November 4, 2025, on the Au2512 contract, the long position decreased by 5,262 lots compared to the previous day, and the short position decreased by 2,315 lots. The total trading volume of the Shanghai gold contract was 332,993 lots, a change of -2.42% from the previous trading day. On the Ag2512 contract, the long position decreased by 2,987 lots, and the short position decreased by 365 lots. The total trading volume of the silver contract was 783,853 lots, a change of 4.23% from the previous trading day [4]. Precious Metal ETF Position Tracking - The gold ETF position was 1,041.78 tons, unchanged from the previous trading day. The silver ETF position was 15,190 tons, unchanged from the previous trading day [5]. Precious Metal Arbitrage Tracking - On November 4, 2025, the domestic gold premium was 4.18 yuan/gram, and the domestic silver premium was -825.36 yuan/kilogram. The price ratio of the main gold and silver contracts on the SHFE was about 81.47, a change of 1.16% from the previous trading day. The overseas gold-silver ratio was 81.88, a change of -0.93% from the previous trading day [6]. Fundamental Analysis - On November 4, 2025, the trading volume of gold on the Shanghai Gold Exchange T+d market was 64,372 kilograms, a change of -4.71% from the previous trading day. The trading volume of silver was 659,480 kilograms, a change of 25.52% from the previous trading day. The gold delivery volume was 11,872 kilograms, and the silver delivery volume was 28,080 kilograms [7]. Strategy - Gold: The price is expected to oscillate, and the Au2512 contract's oscillation range may be between 890 yuan/gram and 940 yuan/gram [8]. - Silver: The price is oscillating, and the Ag2512 contract's oscillation range may be between 11,000 yuan/kilogram and 11,600 yuan/kilogram [8]. - Arbitrage: Short the gold-silver ratio at high levels [8].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Gold: Cautiously bullish [8] - Silver: Cautiously bullish [8] - Arbitrage: Short the gold-silver ratio at high levels [9] - Options: Put on hold [9] 2. Core View of the Report - The divergence within the Fed on the path of interest rate cuts has deepened, and weak economic data may add more weight to the Fed's decision to continue cutting rates in December. Short-term risk aversion catalysts are weakening. Gold and silver prices are expected to be in a volatile pattern. The Au2512 contract for gold may fluctuate between 910 yuan/gram and 940 yuan/gram, and the Ag2512 contract for silver may fluctuate between 11,100 yuan/kilogram and 11,700 yuan/kilogram [8][9] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Market Analysis - Fed Governor Milan called for more aggressive rate cuts, saying the Fed's policy is too tight and the longer it remains restrictive, the greater the risk of an economic downturn. He reiterated that the neutral policy rate is far below the current level and should be achieved through a series of 50-basis-point rate cuts. Governor Cook said each Fed meeting is a real-time decision on monetary policy, the current policy is moderately restrictive, inflation remains high and faces upward risks, and a rate cut in December is possible but depends on new information. The US ISM manufacturing PMI in October was 48.7, contracting for the eighth consecutive month, lower than the expected 49.5 and the previous value of 49.1. New orders declined for the second consecutive month, the production index was weak, and the price payment index hit a new low since the beginning of this year [1] Futures Quotes and Trading Volumes - On November 3, 2025, the Shanghai gold futures main contract opened at 924.60 yuan/gram and closed at 922.58 yuan/gram, a change of 0.07% from the previous trading day's close. The trading volume was 41,087 lots, and the open interest was 129,725 lots. In the night session, it opened at 921.90 yuan/gram and closed at 919.52 yuan/gram, a 0.33% decline from the afternoon close. The Shanghai silver futures main contract opened at 11,449.00 yuan/kilogram and closed at 11,455.00 yuan/kilogram, a change of 0.12% from the previous trading day's close. The trading volume was 752,034 lots, and the open interest was 261,467 lots. In the night session, it opened at 11,455 yuan/kilogram and closed at 11,350 yuan/kilogram, a 0.92% decline from the afternoon close [2] US Treasury Yield and Spread Monitoring - On November 3, 2025, the yield of the 10-year US Treasury note closed at 4.11%, up 2.71 basis points from the previous trading day. The spread between the 10-year and 2-year Treasury notes was 0.505%, down 0.38 basis points from the previous trading day [3] Changes in Positions and Trading Volumes of Gold and Silver on the Shanghai Futures Exchange - On the Au2512 contract, the long positions decreased by 3,855 lots compared to the previous day, and the short positions decreased by 1,997 lots. The total trading volume of the Shanghai gold contract on the previous trading day was 341,261 lots, a 13.8% decrease from the previous trading day. On the Ag2512 contract, the long positions decreased by 2,117 lots, and the short positions decreased by 3,530 lots. The total trading volume of the silver contract on the previous trading day was 1,267,986 lots, a 16.7% decrease from the previous trading day [4] Tracking of Precious Metal ETF Positions - The gold ETF holdings remained unchanged at 1,039.20 tons compared to the previous trading day, and the silver ETF holdings remained unchanged at 15,190 tons [5] Tracking of Precious Metal Arbitrage - On November 3, 2025, the domestic premium for gold was 4.41 yuan/gram, and the domestic premium for silver was -905.77 yuan/kilogram. The ratio of the main contract prices of gold and silver on the Shanghai Futures Exchange was about 80.54, a 0.59% decrease from the previous trading day, and the ratio in the overseas market was 81.97, a 0.93% decrease from the previous trading day [6] Fundamentals - On November 3, 2025, the trading volume of gold on the Shanghai Gold Exchange's T+d market was 67,556 kilograms, a 5.20% decrease from the previous trading day. The trading volume of silver was 525,416 kilograms, a 7.75% increase from the previous trading day. The gold delivery volume was 11,872 kilograms, and the silver delivery volume was 112,200 kilograms [7]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Gold: Neutral [8] - Silver: Neutral [8] - Arbitrage: Sell short the gold-silver ratio on rallies [8] - Options: Postpone [9] Core View - The Fed is likely to continue cutting interest rates in October, and the market has fully priced in this expected rate cut. Coupled with factors that reduce short-term risk aversion, precious metals are expected to continue to show a volatile trend [8]. Summary According to Related Catalogs Market Analysis - The U.S. Senate failed to pass the procedural vote on the "2025 Fiscal Year Continuing Appropriations and Extension Act" for the 13th time, so the government shutdown will continue. ADP will launch weekly employment data, and the first report shows that the average number of private-sector jobs in the U.S. increased by 14,250 in the four weeks ending October 11 [1]. Futures Quotes and Volumes - On October 28, 2025, the Shanghai Gold futures main contract opened at 926.92 yuan/gram and closed at 901.38 yuan/gram, down 3.51% from the previous trading day. The trading volume was 41,087 lots, and the open interest was 129,725 lots. The night session closed at 905.06 yuan/gram, up 0.41% from the afternoon session. The Shanghai Silver futures main contract opened at 11,268.00 yuan/kg and closed at 11,049.00 yuan/kg, down 3.03% from the previous trading day. The trading volume was 1,052,828 lots, and the open interest was 321,876 lots. The night session closed at 11,180 yuan/kg, up 1.19% from the afternoon session [2]. U.S. Treasury Yield and Spread Monitoring - On October 28, 2025, the U.S. 10-year Treasury yield closed at 3.974%, down 0.19 BP from the previous trading day. The spread between the 10-year and 2-year Treasuries was 0.492%, up 0.21 BP from the previous trading day [3]. Position and Volume Changes of Gold and Silver on the SHFE - On October 28, 2025, on the Au2508 contract, the long positions decreased by 541 lots, and the short positions decreased by 242 lots. The total trading volume of Shanghai Gold contracts was 643,413 lots, a change of 24.38% from the previous trading day. On the Ag2508 contract, the long positions increased by 2 lots, and the short positions decreased by 2 lots. The total trading volume of Shanghai Silver contracts was 1,760,723 lots, a change of 35.58% from the previous trading day [4]. Precious Metal ETF Position Tracking - The gold ETF position was 1,038.92 tons, unchanged from the previous trading day. The silver ETF position was 15,210 tons, a decrease of 131 tons from the previous trading day [5]. Precious Metal Arbitrage Tracking - On October 28, 2025, the domestic gold premium was 20.15 yuan/gram, and the domestic silver premium was -625.43 yuan/kg. The price ratio of the main gold and silver contracts on the SHFE was about 81.58, down 0.49% from the previous trading day, and the overseas gold-silver ratio was 85.07, up 0.90% from the previous trading day [6]. Fundamentals - On October 28, 2025, the trading volume of gold on the Shanghai Gold Exchange's T+d market was 67,744 kg, a change of 21.58% from the previous trading day. The trading volume of silver was 765,416 kg, a change of 17.10% from the previous trading day. The gold delivery volume was 11,166 kg, and the silver delivery volume was 16,830 kg [7].

Core Viewpoint - The recent adjustments in gold and silver prices do not alter the long-term bullish outlook, with silver showing significant investment potential due to its dual financial and industrial attributes [1][3]. Gold Market Analysis - The recent price adjustments in gold and silver are attributed to a temporary easing of risk aversion and profit-taking by traders [3]. - The core logic supporting gold's value remains unchanged, with a shift towards a more accommodative monetary policy by the Federal Reserve being a clear mid-term benefit [3]. - The weakening of the dollar's credibility is driving gold prices higher, reflecting a long-term trend where the monetary attributes of gold gain prominence as confidence in dollar assets diminishes [3]. Silver Market Analysis - Silver prices are primarily driven by its financial attributes, with continuous supply gaps and strong industrial demand providing greater upward elasticity [4]. - Silver has experienced a supply gap for five consecutive years, and with steady growth in industrial demand, particularly from the photovoltaic sector, silver is expected to continue facing supply shortages, enhancing its price potential [4]. Investment Strategy - The company suggests a long-term bullish stance on gold, with a focus on buying opportunities during price dips [5]. - For silver, the expectation is for continued price increases in the medium to long term, with an emphasis on monitoring the gold-silver ratio to optimize trading strategies [5].

Group 1: Gold Market Performance - On October 15, the Shanghai gold futures price was reported at 957.70 CNY per gram, with an increase of 1.81% from the opening price of 937.50 CNY per gram, reaching a high of 959.50 CNY and a low of 934.50 CNY [1] - The Comex gold-silver ratio has started to recover, indicating a potential shift in market dynamics [4] Group 2: Macroeconomic Factors - The Federal Reserve has signaled a dovish stance, with Powell suggesting that the balance sheet reduction is nearing its end, and Bowman predicting two more rate cuts by the end of the year, reinforcing expectations for monetary easing [1] - The nominal interest rate decline exceeds the breakeven inflation rate, which supports gold prices as real interest rates continue to decline [4] Group 3: Geopolitical Risks - Ongoing geopolitical risks are driving increased demand for safe-haven assets, with Trump considering trade penalties against Spain and political instability in Madagascar [2] Group 4: Market Sentiment - A Bank of America survey indicates that "long gold" has replaced the "seven giants" as the most crowded trade, reflecting a growing bullish sentiment in the market [3] - The gold and silver investment funds are showing a divergence in performance, with gold seeing an increase in holdings while silver has seen a decrease [4]

Core Viewpoint - The price of spot silver has surged, breaking the $50 per ounce mark for the first time, reaching a historical high of $51.22 per ounce, with a year-to-date increase of over 70%, outperforming gold's approximately 54% rise during the same period [1][2]. Group 1: Market Dynamics - The surge in silver prices is driven by a combination of geopolitical and economic risks, leading investors to seek safe-haven assets, with silver being favored alongside gold [2]. - Silver's strong correlation with gold is influenced significantly by the U.S. dollar and interest rates, with current conditions not indicating a shift towards hawkish policies from central banks [2]. - The industrial demand for silver is increasing due to its applications in solar energy, electric vehicles, and semiconductors, contributing to its distinct position among precious metals [2]. Group 2: Supply and Demand - The global supply of physical silver has been in a state of shortage for the past five years, with the London Bullion Market Association reporting a decrease in silver reserves [2]. - The explosive growth of the solar industry has significantly boosted the demand for silver paste, highlighting its industrial attributes [2]. Group 3: Future Price Projections - Market analysts have differing views on silver's future price trajectory, with some predicting it could reach $100 by the end of 2026 due to sustained industrial demand [3]. - Citibank has raised its three-month silver price target to $55, while HSBC anticipates fluctuations between $45 and $53 for the remainder of 2025 [3]. - The current gold-silver ratio suggests that silver may still have room for price appreciation, as it remains relatively undervalued compared to historical averages [3]. Group 4: Market Sentiment - Analysts suggest that if silver can maintain trading above $50, it may indicate a reassessment of its economic value and store of value function [4]. - There are concerns that high prices could eventually dampen industrial demand for silver, drawing parallels to past speculative bubbles [4][5].