Group 1 - Fossil fuels will continue to dominate the global energy structure in 2024, accounting for 87% of total energy consumption, with oil, natural gas, and coal all experiencing growth [1][2] - Renewable energy (excluding hydropower) is the fastest-growing energy type, with a growth rate of 9%, significantly outpacing the average growth rate of total energy demand over the past five years [1][2] - In 2024, renewable energy generation will account for one-third of global electricity supply, but only 8% of total energy demand, indicating substantial room for improvement in renewable energy penetration in end-use energy [2][4] Group 2 - The global energy transition is challenged by increasing energy demand and carbon emissions, which are projected to reach historical highs in 2024 [2][4] - Wind and solar energy generation will see a 16% increase, raising their share of total global electricity generation from 13% to 15%, with China being a major driver of this growth [2][4] - Countries are increasingly viewing renewable energy investments as a cornerstone of energy security, helping to reduce dependence on fossil fuel imports and stabilize economies against price fluctuations [4][5] Group 3 - Advanced technologies like artificial intelligence are playing a significant role in driving the demand for renewable energy, presenting complex challenges for energy development and utilization [3][5] - China plays a dual role in the global energy landscape, being the largest consumer of coal while also leading in renewable energy capacity, electric vehicle sales, and battery storage deployment [5] - The introduction of the "total energy supply" metric provides a more comprehensive view of energy system efficiency and the benefits of low-carbon and zero-carbon energy sources [4]

Core Insights - The green power certificate (referred to as "green certificate") is the only credential recognized in China for the production and consumption of renewable energy electricity [1] - As of August 2025, the National Energy Administration issued 271 million green certificates, covering 306,500 renewable energy generation projects [1] Issuance Summary - In August 2025, 152 million tradable green certificates were issued, accounting for 55.99% of the total [1] - From January to August 2025, a total of 1.878 billion green certificates were issued, with 1.277 billion being tradable [1] Trading Summary - In August 2025, 48.38 million green certificates were traded nationwide, including 17.63 million green power trading certificates [1] - From January to August 2025, 464 million green certificates were traded, with 158 million being green power trading certificates [1] - In August 2025, 30.75 million green certificates were traded separately, with an average trading price of 5.66 RMB per certificate, reflecting a month-on-month increase of 22.77% [1]

Core Insights - In 2024, global energy demand is projected to grow by 2%, with energy-related carbon emissions increasing by approximately 1%, both reaching historical highs [1] - China remains the primary driver of renewable energy growth, contributing significantly to global advancements in this sector [1][2] Energy Demand and Supply - Fossil fuels continue to dominate the global energy structure, accounting for 87% of total energy consumption, with natural gas showing the highest growth rate at 2.5% [1] - Oil remains the largest energy source, fulfilling 34% of global energy needs, while renewable energy (excluding hydropower) is the fastest-growing energy type, with a growth rate of 9% [1] Electricity and Renewable Energy - Global electricity demand is expected to rise by 4%, outpacing total energy demand growth, indicating a shift towards electrification [2] - By 2024, renewable energy generation is anticipated to account for one-third of global electricity supply, yet only meets 8% of total energy demand, highlighting significant potential for increased penetration [2] Regional Dynamics and Technological Impact - Wind and solar energy generation has increased by 16%, with their share of total global electricity generation rising from 13% to 15% [2] - China is responsible for 57% of the global increase in wind and solar capacity, with solar power generation nearly doubling in two years [2] - The integration of advanced technologies like artificial intelligence is expected to enhance renewable energy demand and presents complex challenges for energy development and utilization [2][3] China's Dual Role in Energy - China plays a dual role in the global energy landscape, having the highest coal demand while also leading in renewable energy installations, electric vehicle sales, and battery storage deployment [3] - The combination of cutting-edge technologies with the energy sector is anticipated to accelerate China's energy transition [3]

Group 1 - The core focus of the 22nd China-ASEAN Expo is on the integration of AI technology, showcasing its extensive applications across various fields, indicating significant potential for cooperation between Singapore and China in AI knowledge sharing and technology development [1][3] - Over the past 12 years, Singapore has been China's largest source of foreign investment, with successful collaborative projects like the Suzhou Industrial Park and Tianjin Eco-City demonstrating deep cooperation in manufacturing upgrades and the digital economy [3] - The upgraded version of the China-ASEAN Free Trade Area 3.0 not only facilitates customs clearance for businesses but also introduces cooperation in cutting-edge fields such as the digital economy and renewable energy, providing substantial development opportunities for regional enterprises [3] Group 2 - The participation of numerous youth leaders at the expo is positively acknowledged, with existing annual exchange mechanisms between Singapore's National Youth Council and China's National Youth Federation, promoting collaboration in higher education [3] - There is a suggestion to encourage youth engagement in emerging fields like digital economy and AI, providing platforms for networking, cooperation, and skill development to ensure the continuity of Singapore-China friendship [3] - The expo has effectively integrated AI and other technological elements, reflecting China's technological strength and the practical outcomes of the event, with Singaporean companies reporting broader trade connection opportunities through participation [4][5]

Core Viewpoint - The article highlights the development of the world's first airborne power station, a significant innovation in renewable energy, capable of generating electricity at altitudes above 1500 meters, thus opening a new era of harnessing high-altitude wind energy [4][10]. Group 1: Technology and Innovation - The airborne power station, named SAWES1500, can generate over 6 million kilowatt-hours of electricity annually, sufficient for 6,000 households, and operates with an efficiency 27 times greater than ground-based wind turbines [4][5]. - The system consists of a lightweight floating balloon filled with helium, a high-efficiency ducted fan, smart tethering, and a ground control station, allowing it to capture strong winds at high altitudes [5][6]. - Each unit can output 1 megawatt of power while weighing only one-tenth of traditional wind towers, and it can connect up to 12 micro-generators [5][6]. Group 2: Operational Mechanism - The operational process involves three main steps: launching the device like a giant kite, generating electricity by capturing high-altitude winds, and transmitting the generated power back to the ground through a robust tether [7][8]. - The airborne power station can move to optimal wind locations, unlike traditional wind farms that are stationary and may not always have access to wind [8][9]. Group 3: Market Potential and Applications - The airborne power station has broad applications beyond electricity generation, including emergency rescue, smart mapping, urban security, and communication support [10][11]. - It can provide power to remote areas where traditional power grids are unavailable, acting as a mobile and inexhaustible energy source [11][12]. - The technology has attracted international attention, with significant investment from capital markets, indicating strong future growth potential [12].

Core Insights - In August 2025, China issued 271 million green power certificates, which are the only proof of renewable energy production and consumption recognized in the country [1] - The total number of renewable energy generation projects involved in the issuance was 306,500 [1] Issuance Summary - Of the green certificates issued in August, 152 million were tradable, accounting for 55.99% of the total [1] - From January to August 2025, a total of 1.878 billion green certificates were issued, with 1.277 billion being tradable [1] Trading Summary - In August 2025, 48.38 million green certificates were traded nationwide, including 17.63 million green power trading certificates [1] - From January to August 2025, a total of 464 million green certificates were traded, with 158 million being green power trading certificates [1] - The average trading price for green certificates in August was 5.66 RMB per certificate, reflecting a month-on-month increase of 22.77% [1]

Summary of Renewable Energy Green Certificate Data Core Insights - The National Energy Administration released data on the issuance and trading of renewable energy green power certificates for August 2025, indicating significant activity in the renewable energy sector [2][3]. Group 1: Green Certificate Issuance - In August 2025, a total of 271 million green certificates were issued, covering 306,500 renewable energy projects, with 152 million being tradable, accounting for 55.99% of the total [3]. - For July 2025, 225 million green certificates were issued, representing 83.01% of the corresponding renewable energy generation [3]. - From January to August 2025, a cumulative total of 1.878 billion green certificates were issued, with 1.277 billion being tradable [3]. Group 2: Green Certificate Trading - In August 2025, 48.38 million green certificates were traded, including 17.63 million for green electricity [6]. - From January to August 2025, a total of 464 million green certificates were traded, with 158 million for green electricity [6]. - The average trading price for the 30.75 million certificates traded in August was 5.66 yuan per certificate, reflecting a month-on-month increase of 22.77% [9]. Group 3: Breakdown by Renewable Energy Type - The issuance of green certificates in August 2025 by renewable energy type included: - Wind Power: 6.494 million [5] - Solar Power: 7.327 million [5] - Conventional Hydropower: 11.767 million [5] - Biomass Power: 1.328 million [5] - Other Renewable Energy: 0.228 million [5] - Cumulatively from January to August 2025, the total issuance by type was: - Wind Power: 71.897 million [5] - Solar Power: 42.794 million [5] - Conventional Hydropower: 60.623 million [5] - Biomass Power: 11.419 million [5] - Other Renewable Energy: 1.087 million [5]. Group 4: Trading Volume by Renewable Energy Type - In August 2025, the trading volume of green certificates by renewable energy type included: - Wind Power: 2.098 million [8] - Solar Power: 2.328 million [8] - Biomass Power: 0.254 million [8] - Other Renewable Energy: 0.001 million [8] - Cumulatively from January to August 2025, the trading volume by type was: - Wind Power: 23.343 million [8] - Solar Power: 19.572 million [8] - Biomass Power: 2.486 million [8] - Other Renewable Energy: 1.024 million [8].

Core Viewpoint - The development of natural gas power generation in China lags significantly behind global levels, with only 3.2% of electricity generated from gas compared to 43% in the US, 34% in Japan, and 16% in Europe, indicating substantial growth potential for gas-to-coal substitution in the domestic market [1][7]. Group 1: Current State and Future Potential - The demand for flexible power sources in China is immense, with a need to increase flexible resources from 700 million kilowatts to 2-2.5 billion kilowatts to accommodate large-scale integration of renewable energy [2]. - Gas power generation plays an irreplaceable role in ensuring electricity supply security and can help overcome the intermittency of renewable energy sources [3][4]. - The proportion of non-fossil energy in major GDP cities is generally below 20%, indicating significant room for growth, with cities setting ambitious targets for 2030 [4]. Group 2: Advantages of Gas Power Generation - Gas turbines offer rapid response and flexibility, with average start-stop cycles exceeding 300 times per year in regions like Jiangsu, Shanghai, and Zhejiang, which is unattainable for coal power plants [5]. - Natural gas power generation has a carbon emission intensity that is only half that of coal, making it a crucial measure for reducing carbon emissions [6]. Group 3: Challenges and Market Dynamics - Despite the clear advantages and potential for gas power development, there are significant market challenges that need to be addressed for large-scale implementation [8]. - Current pricing policies for gas power generation in China have shortcomings, including a lack of relevant policies in many regions and the absence of a normalized pricing mechanism [9]. - The volatility of fuel costs poses a challenge, with global natural gas prices fluctuating significantly since 2021, complicating project cost predictions and extending payback periods [10]. Group 4: Recommendations for Market Development - To promote the market-oriented development of gas power generation, it is essential to improve pricing mechanisms and establish a "two-part tariff + gas-electric linkage" policy [10]. - Enhancing collaboration between natural gas suppliers and electricity companies is recommended to create an integrated supply chain that combines gas supply, power generation, and end-user consumption [10]. - The development of a collaborative model between gas power and renewable energy projects is encouraged to establish a diversified energy supply system based on clean gas [11].

Core Viewpoint - The Ministry of Ecology and Environment emphasizes the importance of establishing and implementing a policy system for carbon peak and carbon neutrality, highlighting significant progress in renewable energy development and emissions control measures [1] Group 1: Renewable Energy Development - China aims to build the largest and fastest-growing renewable energy system globally, with wind and solar power generation capacity having already met the 2030 national contribution target ahead of schedule [1] - During the 14th Five-Year Plan period, the intensity of carbon dioxide emissions in China is expected to continue to decline [1] Group 2: Emission Control Measures - The government is actively controlling non-carbon dioxide greenhouse gas emissions, having released a methane and industrial nitrous oxide emission control plan [1] - Hydrofluorocarbons have been included in quota management, and the limit for coal mine gas emissions has been tightened from 30% to 8%, enhancing the control over methane emissions [1]

Citi Research September 15, 2025 Aluminium long-term outlook Sleepwalking into the biggest deficits in over 20 years Wenyu YaoAC Metals Strategy wenyu.yao@citi.com +44 20 7986 4551 Maximilian LaytonAC Global Head | Commodities max.layton@citi.com +44 20 7986 4556 Shreyas Madabushi AC Metals Strategy shreyas.madabushi@citi.com +91 22 4277 5048 See AppendixA-1 for AnalystCertification, Important Disclosures and ResearchAnalystAffiliations Citi Research is a division of Citigroup Global Markets Inc. (the "Firm ...