Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the implications of the Trump administration's decision to impose tariffs ranging from 25% to 40% on imports from 14 countries, including several Southeast Asian nations, highlighting the potential impact on trade relations and economic strategies in the region [1][3]. Group 1: Tariff Details - The tariffs imposed on Southeast Asian countries include 25% for Malaysia, 32% for Indonesia, 36% for Thailand and Cambodia, and a maximum of 40% for Laos and Myanmar [3][4]. - Cambodia's tariff was reduced from 49% to 36%, while Laos and Myanmar still face high tariffs of 40% and 44% respectively [3][6]. Group 2: Trade Negotiations - Southeast Asian countries are expressing a willingness to negotiate, but the changes in tariff rates are minimal, with Malaysia's rate increasing from 24% to 25% [4]. - U.S. Secretary of State Rubio's visit to Malaysia is expected to address tariff issues, marking his first visit to an Asian country outside of traditional allies Japan and South Korea [4]. Group 3: Cambodia's Trade Agreement - Cambodia may become the second Southeast Asian country to reach a trade agreement with the U.S. after Vietnam, with a joint statement on "reciprocal tariffs" expected soon [6]. - In 2024, Cambodia's total exports are projected to reach $26.2 billion, with nearly 40% of its exports going to the U.S., making it the largest export destination for Cambodia [6]. Group 4: Other Southeast Asian Countries - Thailand is accelerating trade negotiations with the U.S., proposing a new trade plan to reduce the 36% tariff and aiming for a significant reduction in trade surplus with the U.S. over the next five to eight years [6]. - Indonesia's Economic Coordinating Minister is traveling to the U.S. to continue discussions on the tariff issue, emphasizing the government's commitment to active negotiations [7].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No specific industry investment rating is provided in the reports. 2. Core Viewpoints - Due to geopolitical conflicts and tariff uncertainties, the game in the market is difficult, and it is recommended to participate with a light position or wait and see [1][2]. - The short - term market may mainly rebound. Risk - preferring investors are advised to try to go long on the 2510 contract below 1300 and try to go short on the EC2512 contract above 1650, setting stop - loss and take - profit levels. In the context of international situation turmoil, it is recommended to wait and see for arbitrage strategies. For the long - term, it is advised to take profits when the contracts rise and wait for the market to stabilize after a pullback before making further judgments [3]. 3. Summary by Related Content Market Sentiment and Macro Factors - The threat of US tariffs on copper and pharmaceuticals led to a 17% overnight increase in New York copper, boosting market bullish sentiment [1]. - Trump's tariff policies, including the postponement of the "reciprocal tariff" implementation to August 1st and the announcement of tariff rates for 14 trading partners, have an impact on the market. The market has digested the negative information, and bullish sentiment is high [2][4]. Shipping Indexes - On July 7, the Shanghai Export Container Settlement Freight Index (SCFIS) for the European route was 2258.04 points, up 6.3% from the previous period; for the US West route, it was 1557.77 points, down 3.8% [1]. - On July 4, the Ningbo Export Container Freight Index (NCFI) composite index was 1285.2 points, down 7.92% from the previous period; the European route was 1442.5 points, down 0.03%; the US West route was 1176.6 points, down 24.27% [1]. - The Shanghai Export Container Freight Index (SCFI) announced price on July 4 was 1763.49 points, down 98.02 points from the previous period. The SCFI European route price was 2101 USD/TEU, up 3.50%; the US West route was 2089 USD/FEU, down 18.97% [1]. - The China Export Container Freight Index (CCFI) composite index on July 4 was 1342.99 points, down 1.9% from the previous period; the European route was 1694.30 points, up 3.3%; the US West route was 1084.28 points, down 10.5% [1]. Futures Market - On July 8, the main contract 2508 closed at 2006.2, with a 7.16% increase, a trading volume of 57,700 lots, and an open interest of 35,100 lots, an increase of 536 lots from the previous day [2]. - The daily limit for contracts 2506 - 2604 is adjusted to 16%, the margin is adjusted to 26%, and the daily opening limit for all contracts 2506 - 2604 is 100 lots [3]. PMI and Investor Confidence Index - The eurozone's June manufacturing PMI preliminary value was 49.4, the service PMI was 50 (a two - month high), and the composite PMI was 50.2. The Sentix investor confidence index was 0.2 [1]. - The Caixin China Manufacturing PMI in June was 50.4, up 2.1 percentage points from May [1]. - The US June Markit manufacturing PMI preliminary value was 52, the service PMI was 53.1, and the composite PMI was 52.8 [1].

期 货 研 究 2025 年 07 月 09 日 铝：区间震荡 氧化铝：短期偏强震荡 铸造铝合金：跟随电解铝 王蓉 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0002529 wangrong2@gtht.com 王宗源（联系人） 期货从业资格号：F03142619 wangzongyuan@gtht.com 所 铝、氧化铝、铸造铝合金基本面数据更新 | | | | T | T-1 | T-5 | T-22 | T-66 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 沪铝主力合约收盘价 | | | 20525 | 115 | -110 | 325 | -190 | | 沪铝主力合约夜盘收盘价 | | | 20540 | l | ー | ー | l | | LME铝3M收盘价 | | | 2577 | 14 | -25 | 127 | -74 | | 沪铝主力合约成交量 | | | 109583 | -39087 | -25051 | -58740 | -62353 | | 沪铝主力合约持仓量 | 电解铝 | | 254726 | -598 | -28373 | 4682 ...

莫骁雄 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0019413 moxiaoxiong@gtht.com 【基本面跟踪】 | | 昨日值 | 较前日变动/涨跌幅 | | 昨日值 | 较前日变动/涨跌幅 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 沪锌主力收盘价 | 22050 | -0.18% | 伦锌 3M 电子盘收 | 2683 | -1.92% | | （元/吨） | | | 盘（美元/吨） | | | | 沪锌主力成交量 | 158517 | -1989 | 伦锌成交量（手） | 9067 | 4682 | | （手） | | | | | | | 沪锌主力持仓量 | 118874 | -7658 | 伦锌持仓量（手） | 199852 | -2843 | | （手） | | | | | | | 上海 0# 锌升贴水 | 90 | 0 | LME CASH-3M 升 | -22.05 | -0.41 | | （元/吨） | | | 贴水（美元/吨） | | | | 广东 0# 锌升贴水 | 20 | 0 | 进口提单溢价（美 | 135 | 0 | | （元/吨） | | | 元/ ...

2025 年 07 月 09 日 铜：美国可能对铜加征关税，美铜价格大涨 | 季先飞 | | --- | | 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0012691 | | jixianfei@gtht.com | 【基本面跟踪】 铜基本面数据 | | | 昨日收盘价 | 日涨幅 | 昨日夜盘收盘价 | 夜盘涨幅 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 沪铜主力合约 | 79,620 | 0.44% | 80030 | 0.51% | | | 伦铜3M电子盘 | 9,665 | -1.22% | - | - | | | | 昨日成交 | 较前日变动 | 昨日持仓 | 较前日变动 | | 期 货 | 沪铜主力合约 | 61,263 | -14,051 | 207,382 | 2,876 | | | 伦铜3M电子盘 | 20,076 | 8,490 | 277,000 | -4,142 | | | | 昨日期货库存 | 较前日变动 | 注销仓单比 | 较前日变动 | | | 沪铜 | 19,109 | -2,573 | - | - | | | 伦铜 | 102,500 | 5,100 ...

2025年07月09日 星期三 商品期货早班车 招商期货 基本金属 招商评论 铜 市场表现：昨日铜价震荡偏强运行。 基本面：特朗普称 8 月 1 日起实施对等关税、不会再推迟，警告欧盟征税函将至。特朗普威胁征 50%铜关税， 预期七月稍晚或者八月一日落地。纽约铜大涨，但伦敦似乎交易关税落地，反而震荡走弱。美债收益率上行， 美元指数短期偏强。华东华南平水铜现货升水 50 元和贴水 100 元成交，国内下游需求淡季明显。伦敦结构 79 美金 back。 交易策略：建议等待整理充分后逢低买入。 风险提示：全球需求不及预期。仅供参考。 铝 市场表现：昨日电解铝 2508 合约收盘价较前一交易日+0.56%，收于 20410 元/吨，国内 0-3 月差 240 元/吨， LME 价格 2589.5 美元/吨。 基本面：供应方面，电解铝厂维持高负荷生产，周度运行产能稳定。需求方面，周度铝材开工率下降 1%。 交易策略：宏观环境转弱，下游消费淡季氛围浓厚，铝材开工率持续下降，铝锭库存持续累库，对价格支撑 有所减弱，预计价格震荡偏弱，需关注宏观情绪变化。建议观望。 风险提示：海内外宏观政策变化。 氧 化 铝 市场表现：昨日氧 ...

新华社北京7月9日电 继下令延长"对等关税"90天暂缓期至8月1日后，美国总统特朗普8日称，这一日期"不会再变"，还表示将对所有进口到 美国的铜征收50%的新关税。 特朗普在"真实社交"上的帖文截图 特朗普：不会再延期 特朗普8日在社交媒体"真实社交"上写道："根据昨天发给各国的信函，以及今明两天和接下来一段时间内将要发送的信函，关税将于2025年8 月1日开始实施。" 他强调："这一日期没有变化，以后也不会变！" 特朗普当天在白宫召开内阁会议时还表示，将对所有进口到美国的铜征收50%的新关税，但没有透露新关税生效具体时间。 7日，特朗普在社交媒体上陆续发布了他写给日本、韩国、马来西亚、哈萨克斯坦、南非、老挝、缅甸、突尼斯、波黑、印度尼西亚、孟加拉 国、塞尔维亚、柬埔寨、泰国等14国领导人的信函，表示将分别对这些国家的进口产品征收25%至40%不等的关税。 在这些内容几乎完全相同的信中，特朗普警告收信国领导人称，如果想提高关税作为回应，美国将在此次税率基础上再提高同等额度的关 税。同时，如果这些国家或其企业决定在美国境内生产产品，将不会被征收关税。如果相关国家将国内市场向美国开放，同时消除关税和非关税 贸易壁 ...

Group 1 - The EU is in urgent negotiations with the US regarding a trade agreement aimed at protecting key industries from significant tariff impacts, with Airbus being a priority target for protection [1][3] - The EU is close to reaching a preliminary agreement with the US that would exempt commercial aircraft from certain tariffs, benefiting Airbus [1][3] - The discussions include a "countervailing mechanism" that would allow European car manufacturers with factories in the US to export a certain number of cars tariff-free, benefiting companies like BMW, Mercedes, and Volkswagen [1][2] Group 2 - The EU's industrial chief emphasized that Airbus should not be affected by an additional 10% tariff due to "unfair competition" from Boeing, indicating that protecting Airbus aligns with economic interests [3][4] - Analysts note that the imposition of tariffs could significantly suppress demand, impacting Airbus's overall financial health, while Airbus's global production network provides a competitive advantage [4] - The US has shown some flexibility, with the Transportation Secretary expressing support for returning to a historical trade agreement that exempted aircraft and parts from cross-border tariffs, which previously created a trade surplus for the US [4]

宝城期货贵金属有色早报（2025 年 7 月 9 日） 投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 ◼ 品种观点参考 时间周期说明：短期为一周以内、中期为两周至一月 | 品种 | | 短期 | 中期 | 日内 | 观点参考 | 核心逻辑概要 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 黄金 | 2508 | 下跌 | 震荡 | 震荡 偏弱 | 观望 | 美非农就业高于预期，美元反弹， 铜价承压 | | 铜 | 2508 | 上涨 | 上涨 | 震荡 偏强 | 短线看强 | 美关税预期升温，COMEX 铜大涨或 带动沪铜 | 说明： 1.有夜盘的品种以夜盘收盘价为起始价格，无夜盘的品种以昨日收盘价为起始价格，当日日盘收盘价为终点价格， 计算涨跌幅度。 2.跌幅大于 1%为下跌，跌幅 0~1%为震荡偏弱，涨幅 0~1%为震荡偏强，涨幅大于 1%为上涨。 3.震荡偏强/偏弱只针对日内观点，短期和中期不做区分。 主要品种价格行情驱动逻辑—商品期货 品种：黄金（AU） 日内观点：震荡偏弱 中期观点：震荡 观点参考 品种：铜（CU） 参考观点：观望 核心逻辑：美 ...

宝城期货股指期货早报（2025 年 7 月 9 日） ◼ 品种观点参考—金融期货股指板块 时间周期说明：短期为一周以内、中期为两周至一月 | 品种 | 短期 | 中期 | 日内 | 观点参考 | 核心逻辑概要 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | IH2509 | 震荡 | 上涨 | 震荡偏强 | 震荡偏强 | 政策端利好预期构成较强支撑 | 备注： 投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 1.有夜盘的品种以夜盘收盘价为起始价格，无夜盘的品种以昨日收盘价为起始价格，当日日盘收盘 价为终点价格，计算涨跌幅度。 2.跌幅大于 1%为下跌，跌幅 0~1%为震荡偏弱，涨幅 0~1%为震荡偏强，涨幅大于 1%为上涨。 3.震荡偏强/偏弱只针对日内观点，短期和中期不做区分。 ◼ 主要品种价格行情驱动逻辑—金融期货股指板块 品种：IF、IH、IC、IM 日内观点：震荡偏强 中期观点：上涨 参考观点：震荡偏强 核心逻辑：昨日各股指全面反弹。股市全市场成交额 14746 亿元，较上日放量 2476 亿元。光伏板块 受益于"反内卷"政策，当日涨幅较为显著，近日工信部召开第 ...