Core Viewpoint - The potential government shutdown is not expected to significantly impact the stock market, although it may delay the release of key economic data that influences Federal Reserve interest rate decisions [1][7][8]. Market Reaction to Shutdown - Historical data suggests that the stock market tends to perform well during government shutdowns, with gains observed following two of the last three full shutdowns [4]. - Prediction markets indicate a 70% chance of a government shutdown occurring due to Congress's inability to agree on a stopgap bill [3]. Economic Impact - A government shutdown could temporarily put 800,000 to 900,000 federal workers out of work, with estimates suggesting that each week of shutdown could reduce GDP growth by 10 to 20 basis points according to various banks [5]. - The broader economy may suffer significantly if the shutdown extends beyond a week, as furloughed workers would have less disposable income to spend [6]. Federal Reserve Concerns - The shutdown may delay the release of vital economic data, complicating the Federal Reserve's ability to assess inflation and labor market conditions, which are crucial for interest rate decisions [7][8]. - While Wall Street anticipates another interest rate cut, the Fed may be hesitant to proceed without adequate economic data, although a shutdown could also prompt a cut due to its negative economic implications [7][8].

Group 1: Company Performance - First Northwest Bancorp (FNWB) shares increased by 5% to close at $7.75, supported by strong trading volume, contrasting with a 4.2% loss over the past four weeks [1][2] - The company is projected to report quarterly earnings of $0.18 per share, reflecting a year-over-year increase of 178.3%, with revenues expected to reach $17.4 million, up 10.1% from the previous year [3] Group 2: Market Context - The Federal Reserve's initiation of an interest rate cut cycle, with indications of two additional cuts this year, has placed banking stocks in focus, potentially stabilizing banks' funding costs and improving lending scenarios [2] - The consensus EPS estimate for FNWB has remained unchanged over the last 30 days, suggesting that stock price movements may not sustain without trends in earnings estimate revisions [4] Group 3: Industry Comparison - First Northwest Bancorp is part of the Zacks Banks - West industry, where another company, Hanmi Financial (HAFC), saw a 1.2% increase to $25.11, but has returned -1.8% over the past month [4] - Hanmi Financial's consensus EPS estimate is $0.65, indicating a year-over-year change of 32.7%, with its Zacks Rank also at 3 (Hold) [5]

Before the trading day starts we bring you a digest of the key news and events that are likely to move markets. Today we look at: IT slump deepens Banks in demand Traders await RBI Indian equities are set for a positive open this morning after six straight days of losses, supported by gains in Asian markets and US equity futures. The relief rally may also spill over into the bond market, with long-tenor notes likely to benefit from the government’s decision to cut supply at that end of the yield curve. T ...

Warren Buffett’s next move: How Berkshire Hathaway is navigating falling rates, housing headwinds, and market uncertainty. (Photo by Alex Wong/Getty Images)Getty Images"As for the future, Berkshire will always hold a boatload of cash and U.S. Treasury bills along with a wide array of businesses." – Warren Buffett in his 2022 Berkshire Hathaway Annual LetterThe September rate cut from the Federal Reserve (Fed) likely marks the beginning of a new series of cuts, which could continue to send short-term bond yi ...

Core Viewpoint - A bipartisan group of former top US economic officials has filed a brief to the Supreme Court in support of Federal Reserve Governor Lisa Cook, emphasizing the importance of protecting Federal Reserve independence for the global economy [1][2][3] Group 1: Importance of Federal Reserve Independence - The document highlights the historical consequences of compromising central bank independence, which often leads to higher inflation and interest rates due to political interference [5][6] - Examples from history, such as the collaboration between Nixon and Arthur Burns, are cited to illustrate the detrimental effects of undermining Fed independence, resulting in double-digit inflation [6] Group 2: Current Economic Indicators - Recent economic data indicates cracks in the labor market, with payroll growth averaging under 30,000 per month, which is below break-even levels [13] - The unemployment rate is slowly nudging up to 4.3%, with the black unemployment rate increasing from 6% in May to 7.5% [14] Group 3: Rate Cut Considerations - There is a belief that an October rate cut is likely due to the weakening labor market, although caution is advised regarding a potential December cut due to persistent inflation and stronger-than-expected consumer spending [15]

ToplineAmericans appeared to slow down their spending last month amid President Donald Trump’s tariffs, according to federal data released Friday, which showed the Federal Reserve’s preferred inflation gauge matched Wall Street’s projections for August. Fed Chair Jerome Powell earlier this week suggested the “near-term risks” of inflation had improved. Getty ImagesKey FactsAnnual inflation was 2.9% in August, matching July’s price increases, the Bureau of Economic Analysis reported Friday for core personal ...

Core Viewpoint - The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) is expected to maintain its cash rate at 3.60% as the labor market remains tight and inflation shows signs of persistence [1][3]. Economic Indicators - Australia's monthly consumer price index (CPI) increased by 3.0% in August compared to the previous year, up from 2.8% in July, indicating rising inflation [2]. - Economic growth rebounded in the second quarter, and the unemployment rate has remained relatively stable, suggesting that the RBA can afford to slow its rate cuts [2][3]. Market Expectations - A consensus among economists indicates that the RBA will hold the cash rate at 3.60% during the upcoming policy meeting, with a year-end forecast of 3.35% [1][4]. - Over 80% of economists expect a 25 basis point cut to 3.35% by the end of 2025, while some predict no change, reflecting a shift in sentiment from previous polls [4]. Future Projections - Economists are divided on the likelihood of a rate cut in November, with some suggesting that strong labor market data and inflation could delay any cuts [5][6]. - Long-term forecasts show that 23 out of 38 economists anticipate one more rate cut in the first quarter of 2026, bringing the rate down to 3.10% [5].

Key Points Dogecoin and cryptos across the board are still seeing red. The Federal Reserve's 0.25% rate cut last week was smaller than many investors had hoped. Riskier investments like Dogecoin tend to outperform as interest rates fall. 10 stocks we like better than Dogecoin › Dogecoin (CRYPTO: DOGE) fell on Thursday, down 6.8% as of 5:09 p.m. ET, as measured from 4 p.m. on Wednesday. The move comes as the S&P 500 (SNPINDEX: ^GSPC) and the Nasdaq Composite (NASDAQINDEX: ^IXIC) both lost 0.5%. The ...

Key Points XRP is sliding alongside a broader crypto sell-off. The Federal Reserve's 0.25% rate cut last week was smaller than many investors had hoped. 10 stocks we like better than XRP › XRP (CRYPTO: XRP) fell on Thursday, down 6.8% as of 4:59 p.m. ET, as measured from 4 p.m. on Wednesday. The move comes as the S&P 500 (SNPINDEX: ^GSPC) and Nasdaq Composite (NASDAQINDEX: ^IXIC) both lost 0.5% on the day. The banking-focused crypto is falling along with much of the market as investors await Friday' ...

The board of governors voted 4-1 to lower the overnight interest-rate target to 7.50% from 7.75%. ...