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首席看经济|黄文涛:内需和国内大市场建设是政策发力关键抓手
Bei Ke Cai Jing· 2025-12-17 09:13
12月10日至11日,中央经济工作会议在北京召开。作为来年宏观经济政策最权威的风向标,这次会议在"十四五"圆满收官与"十五五"开篇布局的历史交汇点 上,明确了2026年中国经济的发展重点。 贝壳财经记者发现,相较于往年,本次会议在延续"稳中求进"总基调的同时,更着重强调了 "提质增效",并多次提及"高质量发展"。这意味着新一年的经济 工作,不仅关注增长之"量",更追求发展之"质"。 在此背景下,新京报贝壳财经推出"首席看经济"系列专访,深度解读中央经济工作会议精神,明晰2026年重点工作任务。本期对话嘉宾为中信建投证券首席 经济学家黄文涛。 相比之下,2024年财政政策的表述偏重"提高财政赤字率""增加超长期特别国债和地方专项债发行使用"等,突出的是加大力度、扩大总量。今年则更加强调 财政可持续性、风险和纪律。因此,预计2026年赤字率保持不低于4%,广义口径或抬升至8.8%左右,支出端进一步强化"投资于人"的领域。 货币政策方面,会议把"物价合理回升"写进总要求;并强调畅通货币政策传导机制,引导金融机构加力支持扩大内需、科技创新、中小微企业等重点领域, 这表明价格和传导机制被放在更加突出的位置。预计2026 ...
去美元化加速!外资集体对华加仓,已吸纳5737亿,疯狂逃离美市场
Sou Hu Cai Jing· 2025-12-17 05:13
Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article emphasizes the significance of overseas capital increasing its allocation in China, signaling a potential stock market rebound, while also highlighting the importance of the 2026 Central Political Bureau meeting's focus on "deepening the construction of a unified national market" [1][3] - The article notes that by September 2025, foreign investment in China has exceeded 573.7 billion, indicating a growing recognition of the long-term logic of the Chinese market among overseas investors [3] - It mentions that investors from France, Germany, and South America have begun to increase their positions in Chinese assets, reflecting a rising confidence and interest in the Chinese market [5] Group 2 - The Central Political Bureau meeting on December 8 outlined a strategic framework for the economy in 2026, emphasizing "deepening the construction of a unified national market" as a focus for policy [8] - The meeting's shift from "preventing external shocks" to "coordinating domestic economic work and international economic struggles" indicates a proactive approach to external challenges while prioritizing internal order [10] - The article discusses the "regional economic fragmentation" issue in China, where administrative divisions create barriers that hinder cross-province operations and lead to inefficiencies [12][14] Group 3 - The article explains that the fragmented market results in high circulation costs and difficulties for enterprises to expand across provinces, ultimately suppressing domestic demand [20] - It argues that a unified market is essential for activating development potential by breaking down regional barriers, reducing circulation costs, and lowering product prices, thereby unleashing consumer potential [24] - The ongoing reforms aim to tighten tax regulations, eliminate administrative barriers, and unify industry standards, which are crucial for establishing a "national chessboard" approach [26]
坚定不移深化改革扩大开放——五论学习贯彻中央经济工作会议精神
Xin Hua She· 2025-12-17 00:52
新华社北京12月16日电 题:坚定不移深化改革扩大开放——五论学习贯彻中央经济工作会议精神 新华社评论员 改革不停顿,开放不止步。中央经济工作会议把"坚持改革攻坚,增强高质量发展动力活力"和"坚 持对外开放,推动多领域合作共赢"纳入明年经济工作重点任务,释放了在深化改革、扩大开放中推动 高质量发展、推进中国式现代化建设的鲜明信号。学习贯彻中央经济工作会议精神,就要大力弘扬改革 开放精神,围绕激发高质量发展的动力活力,坚定不移深化改革扩大开放,不断开创经济社会发展新局 面。 改革开放是党和人民事业大踏步赶上时代的重要法宝,也是推进中国式现代化的根本动力。2025年 是很不平凡的一年,我国经济顶压前行、向新向优发展,改革开放迈出新步伐。从发布《全国统一大市 场建设指引(试行)》到出台民营经济促进法、再到10个地区获批开展要素市场化配置综合改革试点, 从实施自由贸易试验区提升战略到外资准入负面清单持续缩减、再到过境免签政策扩容带火"中国 游""中国购"……我国改革开放的广度和深度不断拓展,为经济社会发展提供了制度保障和强劲动力。 回望过去5年,以习近平同志为核心的党中央团结带领全党全国各族人民,迎难而上、砥砺前行, ...
信用债周策略20251216:怎么看经济工作会议对地方经济的指导
Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the report emphasizes the importance of adhering to a stable yet progressive economic strategy, focusing on quality and efficiency, while implementing more proactive fiscal policies and moderately loose monetary policies to enhance macroeconomic governance effectiveness [1][13][19] - The report highlights the significance of "performance view" and "local adaptation" as focal points of the recent economic work conference, indicating that local governments should avoid blind pursuit of trends and instead develop industries based on regional characteristics and advantages [2][12][17] - The report suggests a short-duration investment strategy for local governments that effectively address hidden debts, particularly those that can resolve these issues promptly and are expected to issue special bonds for project construction [3][27][37] Group 2 - The report outlines key tasks for local governments in 2026, including maintaining domestic demand as the primary driver, enhancing infrastructure investment, and optimizing the use of special bonds and new policy financial tools to stimulate private investment [19][25][26] - It discusses the need for a unified national market construction regulation to address "involution" competition and promote fair competition among local governments and enterprises, which is expected to be implemented in 2026 [9][24][21] - The report emphasizes the importance of addressing local government debt risks through proactive measures, including debt restructuring and optimizing financing platforms, to ensure sustainable economic development [27][29][30]
既是攻坚战 也是持久战 ——访国家市场监督管理总局党组书记、局长罗文
Jing Ji Ri Bao· 2025-12-17 00:12
于"打通全国统一大市场堵点卡点"热点问题的报道在社会上引起广泛关注,也受到一些部门单位和地方 领导的响应。针对如何理解和把握"十五五"时期纵深推进全国统一大市场建设的任务要求这一问题,经 济日报记者专访了国家市场监督管理总局党组书记、局长罗文。 党的二十届四中全会通过的《中共中央关于制定国民经济和社会发展第十五个五年规划的建议》(以下 简称《建议》),对"坚决破除阻碍全国统一大市场建设卡点堵点"作出重要部署。连日来,本报关 问:近年来,市场监管总局推进全国统一大市场建设的进展成效如何?有哪些具有标志性意义的重点工 作? "十五五"时期是基本实现社会主义现代化夯实基础、全面发力的关键时期,强大国内市场是中国式现代 化的战略依托。加快构建新发展格局、推动经济高质量发展、建设现代化产业体系、加快高水平科技自 立自强,都需要构建全国统一大市场作为先决条件和基础支撑;应对复杂变化的外部环境、牢牢掌握发 展主动权,也需要以强大国内市场保障经济合理增长和安全发展。随着全国统一大市场建设的不断深 入,许多问题已经解决,目前仍然存在的卡点堵点都是难啃的"硬骨头",涉及中央和地方事权、政府和 市场关系、地方经济发展方式转型等一系 ...
求是网发文:如何促进消费和投资良性互动?
Hua Er Jie Jian Wen· 2025-12-16 14:27
Core Viewpoint - The recent Central Economic Work Conference emphasizes the importance of "domestic demand as the main driver" and prioritizes building a strong domestic market as the primary task for economic work in the coming year [1] Group 1: Domestic Demand and Economic Growth - Consumption and investment are identified as the "dual engines" of domestic demand, and promoting their positive interaction is crucial for enhancing the internal dynamics and reliability of the domestic cycle [1] - Expanding new space for domestic demand growth requires continuous stimulation of potential consumption and expansion of effective investment, while identifying the intersection and focal points of both [1] Group 2: Consumption Promotion - There is a strong emphasis on boosting consumption through the implementation of special actions aimed at stimulating consumption and developing urban and rural residents' income increase plans [1] - The strategy includes expanding the supply of quality goods and services, optimizing the implementation of "two new" policies, and removing unreasonable restrictions in the consumption sector to unleash the potential of service consumption [1] Group 3: Investment Expansion - Effective investment must be expanded to stabilize and reverse the decline in investment, with plans to appropriately increase the scale of central budget investments and optimize the management of local government special bond usage [1] - The role of new policy financial tools will continue to be leveraged to effectively stimulate private investment, alongside high-quality urban renewal initiatives [1] Group 4: Institutional Guarantees and Market Regulation - Strengthening institutional guarantees involves formulating a national unified market construction regulation to standardize market foundational systems, infrastructure, government behavior, and market supervision [1] - There is a call for deepening the rectification of "involution-style" competition to prevent "policy competition" from distorting market mechanisms and to promote the smooth flow of goods and resource factors across a broader scope [1]
中央财办:扩大内需是明年排在首位的重点任务
Xin Hua Cai Jing· 2025-12-16 13:00
在"十四五"即将收官、"十五五"新程待启的关键时点,2025年12月10日至11日召开的中央经济工作会议 备受瞩目。 当前经济形势怎么看?"十五五"新开局重点任务如何推进?聚焦舆论关注的热点问题,中央财办有关负 责同志会后第一时间接受中央主要媒体采访,深入解读中央经济工作会议精神。 问:2025年我国交出怎样的经济"成绩单"?明年经济形势如何? 答:中央经济工作会议对今年经济工作进行全面总结,指出2025年是很不平凡的一年,我国经济顶压前 行、向新向优发展,展现强大韧性和活力。 一是运行总体平稳、稳中有进。主要经济指标符合预期,预计全年经济增长5%左右、继续位居世界主 要经济体前列,经济总量有望达到140万亿元左右。就业总体稳定,外贸较快增长、出口多元化成效明 显。 二是现代化产业体系建设持续推进。新质生产力稳步发展,科技创新成果丰硕,人工智能、生物医药、 机器人等研发应用走在全球前列。 三是改革开放迈出新步伐。全国统一大市场建设向纵深推进,综合整治"内卷式"竞争成效显现,资本市 场较为活跃,自主开放有序推进。 政策质效上,提高精准性和有效性。优化财政支出结构,强化国家重大战略财力保障,推动更多资金资 源投资 ...
综合整治“内卷式”竞争方面有哪些新手段?中央财办有关负责同志回应
Xin Hua She· 2025-12-16 12:53
政府层面,要持续规范地方政府经济促进行为。针对一些地方在招商引资中违规提供税费、土地、电价 等优惠,甚至举债搞补贴,要加快出台地方招商引资鼓励和禁止事项清单,划清红线底线。坚决纠治通 过"抽屉协议"等方式变相违规招商。要持续规范涉企执法行为,完善行政裁量权基准制度。要着力整治 一些领域的招标投标乱象,清理不合理限制,防止出现地方保护。完善有利于统一大市场建设的统计、 财税、考核制度,推动树立和践行正确政绩观。 企业层面,要深入整治"内卷式"竞争。要加快完善重点行业产能调控机制,加强动态监测预警,既让落 后产能有序退出,也让新增优质产能平稳接续。要强化综合治理,加强行业自律、标准引领,综合运用 信用监管、价格执法、反垄断和反不正当竞争等监管手段,着力规范市场竞争秩序,形成优质优价、良 性竞争的市场生态,更好发挥市场机制优胜劣汰功能。 针对当前纵深推进全国统一大市场建设还存在哪些难点和堵点?综合整治"内卷式"竞争方面有哪些新手 段? 总之,纵深推进全国统一大市场建设,必将有效畅通我国经济循环,进一步激发超大规模市场优势潜 力,持续增强经济发展内生动力和活力。 中央财办有关负责同志表示,我国具有超大规模市场优势,但 ...
聚焦中央经济工作会议丨中央财办有关负责同志详解2025年中央经济工作会议精神
Xin Hua Wang· 2025-12-16 12:52
Core Viewpoint - The 2025 Central Economic Work Conference outlines China's economic performance and strategic priorities, emphasizing resilience and innovation in the face of challenges, while setting a roadmap for future growth and stability. Economic Performance and Outlook - The overall economic operation is stable with expected growth around 5% for the year, positioning China among the leading global economies, with a projected GDP of approximately 140 trillion yuan [2] - Employment remains stable, with significant growth in foreign trade and diversified exports [2] - The construction of a modern industrial system is progressing, with advancements in technology and innovation in sectors like AI and biomedicine [2] - Reforms and opening-up measures are advancing, with a focus on creating a unified national market and addressing competitive issues [2] - Risk mitigation in key areas has shown positive results, including the orderly replacement of local government hidden debts and the completion of housing delivery tasks [2] - Social welfare policies, such as childcare subsidies and free education for preschoolers, are being implemented to enhance public welfare [2] Challenges and Strategic Responses - The conference acknowledges ongoing economic challenges, including external environmental changes and domestic supply-demand imbalances [3] - Despite these challenges, China's long-term economic fundamentals remain strong, supported by a large market, complete industrial system, and abundant talent resources [3] - The government plans to continue implementing proactive macroeconomic policies, focusing on quality and efficiency [4][5] Fiscal and Monetary Policy - The fiscal policy will maintain necessary deficits and debt levels while addressing local fiscal difficulties and ensuring sustainable finances [5][6] - Monetary policy will remain moderately accommodative, with a focus on stabilizing economic growth and ensuring liquidity [8][9] Domestic Demand and Investment - Expanding domestic demand is a top priority, with a contribution rate of 71% to economic growth in the first three quarters [9] - The government aims to stimulate consumption by addressing structural changes and enhancing residents' income [9][10] - Investment strategies will focus on infrastructure and social welfare, with an emphasis on high-quality projects and private sector engagement [10] Regional Development and Innovation Centers - The construction of international technology innovation centers in Beijing, Shanghai, and the Guangdong-Hong Kong-Macau Greater Bay Area is a key strategic initiative to enhance global competitiveness [11][12] - The expansion of these centers aims to integrate innovation resources and promote high-quality development [12] Market Regulation and Competition - The government is addressing market distortions and enhancing fair competition through regulatory reforms and the establishment of a unified national market [13][14] - Measures will be taken to regulate local government behaviors and ensure compliance with fair competition standards [14] Trade and Foreign Investment - The government plans to enhance foreign trade and investment through a series of measures, including expanding service sector openness and optimizing the business environment for foreign investors [15][17] - Efforts will be made to sign more trade agreements and promote high-quality imports [16][17] Employment and Real Estate Market - Employment policies will focus on stabilizing job growth, particularly for key demographics such as graduates and migrant workers [22][23] - The real estate market will be stabilized through measures that address both supply and demand, encouraging the transformation of real estate companies and promoting high-quality housing development [25][27]
济宁市2个案例入选全省农村产权流转交易规范化试点案例汇编
Qi Lu Wan Bao· 2025-12-16 06:52
Core Viewpoint - Shandong Province is enhancing the standardization of rural property rights transactions, with successful case studies from Zoucheng City and Jiaxiang County, which are leading in the province [1] Group 1: Policy Implementation - The Shandong Provincial Department of Agriculture and Rural Affairs has issued a compilation of successful case studies for the standardization of rural property rights transactions [1] - Zoucheng City is implementing a "government purchase of services + enterprise operation" model for rural property rights transactions, establishing a unified operational mechanism known as the "six unifications" [1] - Jiaxiang County is leveraging its rural collective property transaction platform to create a new framework characterized by standardized operations, regulated management, convenient services, and digital empowerment [1] Group 2: Future Plans - The Jining Municipal Bureau of Agriculture and Rural Affairs plans to enhance the information technology and standardization of rural collective asset management, aiming to support high-quality agricultural and rural development in the city [1]