| 2025年是"十四五"收官、"十五五"谋划之年,"十五五"时期是我国基本实现社会主义现代化承前启后的关键时期，科学 谋划好"十五五"时期经济社会发展,编制好"十五五"规划具有重大的现实意义和深远的历史意义。现开展"十五五"规划编制 意见建议征集活动,诚挚邀请您畅所欲言、建宫献策,共同擘画"十五五"高质量发展新蓝图。 SULLER | 10000 | | 我要建言献策 | 80000 | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 党的建设 | | 全面从严治党 | 经济发展 | 科技创新 | 人工智能+ | | 全面深化改革 | 高质量发展 | | 乡村全面振兴 | 生态环境 | 文化强国 | | 文化遗产传承保护 | | 国民教育 | 就业创业 | 健康中国 | 社会保障 | | 民主法治 | 住房保障 | 扩大内需 | 收入分配 | 共同富裕 | | | 社会治理 | | 安全发展 | 区域协调发展 | 高水平对外开放 | 大国外交 | | 国防建设 | | 统一战线 | 其他 | | | "十五五"时期是我国基本实现社会主义现代化夯实基础、全面发力的关键时期。 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article emphasizes the importance of planning for economic and social development during the "14th Five-Year Plan" period, highlighting the need to integrate top-level design with public consultation to enhance decision-making and mobilize public creativity [1] Group 1 - The article discusses the incorporation of public suggestions, such as the "mutual assistance pension" proposal, into the "14th Five-Year Plan" and the collection of over 850 million suggestions during the 20th National Congress [1] - It mentions that more than 311.3 million public suggestions have been submitted for the "15th Five-Year Plan," showcasing the effectiveness of engaging with the public in the decision-making process [1] - The article stresses the necessity of understanding public sentiment and gathering wisdom from the people to achieve significant historical accomplishments [1] Group 2 - The article highlights the unwavering commitment to benefiting the people, emphasizing the need to identify focal points for work and policy initiatives based on public expectations [1] - It outlines the importance of implementing practical measures through the continuation of five-year plans to address public needs effectively [1] - The article concludes that by tackling challenges and maintaining long-term efforts, the aspirations of the people for a better life can be continuously realized [1]

Group 1 - The "14th Five-Year Plan" compilation work has received over 3.113 million suggestions from the public, indicating high participation and broad coverage, which reflects a practice of whole-process people's democracy [1][2] - The importance of incorporating public opinions into the planning process is emphasized, with various stakeholders expressing their commitment to actively listen and integrate valuable suggestions from citizens [3][4] - The focus on education and technological innovation is highlighted, with specific suggestions made by individuals in these sectors to improve local conditions and drive future industry development [2][5] Group 2 - The government aims to enhance the scientific and operational aspects of the "14th Five-Year Plan" by gathering insights from social expectations, expert opinions, and grassroots experiences [3] - Local authorities are encouraged to maintain open channels for public feedback, ensuring that the collection of opinions is genuine and leads to effective policy implementation [4][5] - The commitment to rural revitalization and improving living standards is reiterated, with local leaders emphasizing the need to address community needs and enhance agricultural productivity [5]

Core Viewpoint - Guangzi International's stock price is currently at 18.18 yuan, reflecting a decrease of 0.38 yuan from the previous trading day, with a trading volume of 22,545 hands and a transaction amount of 0.41 billion yuan [1] Group 1: Company Overview - Guangzi International operates in the engineering consulting services industry and is one of the earliest professional service institutions in China engaged in investment decision consulting and bidding agency [1] - The company's business scope includes investment decision consulting, bidding agency, engineering cost, and engineering supervision [1] Group 2: Financial Performance - In the first half of 2025, the company achieved an operating income of 247 million yuan, representing a year-on-year growth of 5.2% [1] - The net profit attributable to the parent company was 46.14 million yuan, showing a year-on-year increase of 7.12% [1] - The growth in performance is primarily attributed to the company's market expansion model of "exploiting existing resources + breakthrough in new areas" and seizing business opportunities arising from the "14th Five-Year Plan" [1] Group 3: Corporate Governance - The company will hold a temporary shareholders' meeting on August 19 to review proposals for the cancellation of the supervisory board and other matters [1]

Group 1: Achievements of the 14th Five-Year Plan - China's economic strength has significantly increased, with GDP expected to reach approximately 140 trillion yuan by 2025, representing a growth equivalent to recreating the economies of Guangdong, Jiangsu, and Shandong combined [2] - Research and development (R&D) investment has grown nearly 50% compared to the end of the 13th Five-Year Plan, reaching 1.2 trillion yuan, with R&D intensity approaching OECD averages [3] - The renewable energy capacity has more than doubled, reaching 2.09 billion kilowatts by May 2025, with one-third of electricity generated from green sources [4] - Employment has increased with over 12 million new urban jobs created annually, and the coverage of basic medical and pension insurance remains above 95% [5] - Significant progress in state-owned enterprise reform and the establishment of a unified national market, with the number of negative lists for market access reduced from 151 to 106 [7] Group 2: Expectations for the 15th Five-Year Plan - The focus will be on advancing technology in areas such as artificial intelligence and quantum information, with a collaborative mechanism for transforming research into economic benefits [9] - A shift towards a green industrial revolution is anticipated, with non-fossil energy expected to account for about 25% of primary energy consumption [10] - Digital transformation will progress from consumer internet to industrial internet, with comprehensive coverage of industrial categories [11] - Policies will be implemented to address aging population challenges, including enhanced support for families and the development of a silver economy [12] - Reforms aimed at achieving common prosperity will be introduced, including adjustments to tax systems and minimum wage standards [13] - Efforts to enhance openness and connectivity in the dual circulation economy will be prioritized, with a reduction in foreign investment negative lists [14]

Core Viewpoint - The article emphasizes the recent political bureau meeting's focus on macroeconomic policies, fiscal tightening, and the promotion of consumption and investment, while addressing issues related to local government debt and market competition. Macroeconomic Policy - The meeting highlighted the need to implement more proactive fiscal policies and moderately loose monetary policies to fully release policy effects, moving away from the previous emphasis on extraordinary counter-cyclical adjustments [2] - The National Development and Reform Commission (NDRC) announced ongoing measures to stabilize employment and the economy, with a focus on policy research and timely implementation based on actual needs [2] Fiscal Policy - The meeting indicated a tightening stance on fiscal policy, emphasizing the need to actively and prudently resolve local government debt risks and prohibit new hidden debts [2] - The Ministry of Finance reiterated its commitment to accountability for hidden debt cases, emphasizing the importance of preventing and resolving hidden debt risks as a political task [2][5] Monetary Policy - The meeting did not mention "timely interest rate cuts," but emphasized maintaining ample liquidity in monetary policy to promote a decline in overall financing costs [2] Consumption - The meeting stressed the importance of enhancing service consumption and implementing special actions to boost consumption, particularly in cultural tourism and healthcare services [3] Investment - The meeting called for high-quality promotion of "two重" construction, with the NDRC planning to expedite the establishment of new policy financial tools and improve investment return levels in key sectors [4] Market Competition - The meeting outlined detailed plans to advance the construction of a unified national market, optimize market competition order, and regulate chaotic competition among enterprises [4][5] Capital Market - The meeting expressed support for enhancing the attractiveness and inclusiveness of domestic capital markets, aiming to consolidate the positive momentum in the capital market [6] Emerging Industries - Recent policies focus on emerging industries such as artificial intelligence, humanoid robots, and low-altitude economy, with the government promoting large-scale commercial applications of AI [7][19] Childcare Subsidies - The implementation of a childcare subsidy system was announced, providing annual subsidies of 3,600 yuan per child until the age of three, with an initial budget of approximately 90 billion yuan for 2025 [17][18] Bond Market - Starting August 8, the Ministry of Finance will resume the collection of value-added tax on interest income from newly issued government bonds [8]

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - The economic situation judgment is optimistically cautious, with the macro - policy emphasizing continuity and stability, and leaving room for policy adjustment. The "15th Five - Year Plan" is set to play a crucial role in China's modernization process [7]. - Monetary policy remains moderately loose, with a possibility of reserve requirement ratio cuts and interest rate cuts. Structural tools are emphasized for targeted support [8]. - Fiscal policy is more proactive, with accelerated implementation of existing policies and potential new policies in consumption, technology, and foreign trade [14]. - The mid - term bond market yield is expected to continue its downward trend despite recent upward fluctuations [18]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Economic Situation and "15th Five - Year Plan" - The current macro - economy is stable with progress but still faces challenges. Macro - policies aim to maintain the upward trend, with a focus on stabilizing employment, enterprises, markets, and expectations [7]. - The "15th Five - Year Plan" is a key stage for China's modernization, with a dual mission of connecting the "14th Five - Year Plan" and the 2035 vision [7]. 3.2 Monetary Policy - The moderate - loose tone of monetary policy remains unchanged. The focus shifts to the priority of structural tools over aggregate ones, with an emphasis on guiding funds to the real economy [8]. - There is a possibility of interest rate cuts in the second half of the year due to factors such as the differentiated structural economic recovery, expected Fed rate cuts, and historical rate - cut rhythms [10][12]. 3.3 Fiscal Policy - Fiscal policy remains proactive, with a focus on accelerating the issuance and use of government bonds and ensuring the bottom - line of "Three Guarantees" at the grassroots level [14]. - In the second half of the year, the implementation of existing fiscal policies will accelerate, and new policies may be introduced to support consumption, technology, and foreign trade [17]. 3.4 Bond Market - The recent rise in bond yields is due to the resonance of economic fundamentals, policy, and capital factors. The 10 - year Treasury bond yield rose from about 1.65% to 1.75% in mid - to late July [18]. - Considering the policy's emphasis on continuity and stability and the economic weak - recovery reality, the mid - term bond yield is expected to continue its downward trend [18][19].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommended" rating for the banking sector, highlighting its configuration value amidst positive macroeconomic policies and ongoing support for consumption and technology [5][37]. Core Insights - The banking sector has shown resilience, with the PB ratio at 0.73 times and a dividend yield of 4.09%, indicating strong potential for investment [5][28]. - The resumption of VAT on newly issued government bonds is expected to impact banks' income and asset allocation, leading to a decrease in actual comprehensive yields for various bonds [11][10]. - The implementation of interest subsidies for personal consumption loans and service industry loans is anticipated to benefit retail banking operations, stimulating credit demand [16][5]. Summary by Sections Latest Research Insights - The July Politburo meeting emphasized the need for sustained macroeconomic policy support, focusing on stabilizing employment, enterprises, and market expectations [7][8]. - The meeting also highlighted the importance of expanding domestic demand and supporting new productive forces, which could benefit retail and technology finance sectors [9][8]. Weekly Market Performance - The banking sector outperformed the market, with a decline of 0.84% compared to a 1.75% drop in the CSI 300 index [5][17]. - Among listed banks, Agricultural Bank (+2.43%) and Industrial and Commercial Bank (+1.74%) showed notable gains [18][5]. Valuation of the Sector and Listed Companies - As of August 1, 2025, the banking sector's PB ratio stands at 0.73, reflecting a 43.98% discount compared to the overall A-share market [28][5]. - The report lists several banks with strong performance potential, including Industrial and Commercial Bank (601398), Agricultural Bank (601288), and Postal Savings Bank (601658) [37][5]. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests that low-valued joint-stock banks and quality regional banks are gaining attention from active funds, with a focus on the effectiveness of domestic demand expansion policies [37][5]. - The overall positive accumulation of fundamental factors in the banking sector indicates a potential turning point in performance [37][5].

行业周报 国债等恢复增值税征收,消费、经营贷将迎贴息 银行业周报 (2025.07.28-2025.08.03) 2025 年 8 月 4 日 核心观点 银行业 | | | 分析师 张一纬 ☎：010-8092-7617 z:zhangyiwei_yj@chinastock.com.cn 分析师登记编码：S0130519010001 研究助理 袁世麟 网: yuanshilin_yj@chinastock.com.cn 相对沪深 300 表现图 2025-08-01 20% 资料来源:ifind. 中国银河证券研究院 相关研究 www.chinastock.com.cn 证券研究报告 请务必阅读正文最后的中国银河证券股份有限公司免责声明 银行板块表现优于市场:本周沪深 300 指数下跌 1.75%,银行板块下跌 ● 0.84%。国有行、股份行、城商行、农商行分别+0.80%、-1.52%、-1.04%、 -2.30%。个股方面,9 家上市银行上涨,农业银行(+2.43%）、工商银行 (+1.74%)、邮储银行(+1.07%)、建设银行(+0.75%)、成都银行(+0.70%) 涨幅居前。截至8月1日,银行板块 ...

上周五美国的非农数据是令人惊掉下巴的，本身数据不及预期不说，前面两个月的数据修正直接移了一 个小数点。数据发布后，美股大跌。 恰好最近港股A股也不是那么稳定，调整的阴云笼罩在市场上。但今天的港股A股无疑是长脸的，市场 低开高走，非常强。 早盘的时候还是靠gjd拉着银行护住上证指数，拉着中芯国际护住双创指数和恒科指数，随着指数的稳 定，市场气氛明显重新升温。就是有明显利空事件的创新药，都几乎给拉回来了。 盘面上，最强的是军工，这个好理解，大月饼在即。除此之外，上周的政治局会议确定了10月四中全会 上研究十五五规划，新的五年规划首年军工往往会上这么多新项目，是炒作军工的好时期。 除了军工外，最强的就是机器人，这个板块上半年大涨了一波，随后又调整了几个月，但我们反复说过 了，机器人的未来是星辰大海，调的幅度和时间够了，只要有利好就非常容易刺激。这不，利好就来 了。周末北京经开区启动全球首个以机器人消费为主题的节日——E-Town机器人消费节。北京经开区 将发放专属消费券，个人消费者购买机器人产品最高可获得1500元补贴。 另外新消费也行，这个板块包括港股和A股部分公司，也调整很久了，今天表现也可以，猫粮、潮玩、 美 ...