Core Viewpoint - The article emphasizes the recent political bureau meeting's focus on macroeconomic policies, fiscal tightening, and the promotion of consumption and investment, while addressing issues related to local government debt and market competition. Macroeconomic Policy - The meeting highlighted the need to implement more proactive fiscal policies and moderately loose monetary policies to fully release policy effects, moving away from the previous emphasis on extraordinary counter-cyclical adjustments [2] - The National Development and Reform Commission (NDRC) announced ongoing measures to stabilize employment and the economy, with a focus on policy research and timely implementation based on actual needs [2] Fiscal Policy - The meeting indicated a tightening stance on fiscal policy, emphasizing the need to actively and prudently resolve local government debt risks and prohibit new hidden debts [2] - The Ministry of Finance reiterated its commitment to accountability for hidden debt cases, emphasizing the importance of preventing and resolving hidden debt risks as a political task [2][5] Monetary Policy - The meeting did not mention "timely interest rate cuts," but emphasized maintaining ample liquidity in monetary policy to promote a decline in overall financing costs [2] Consumption - The meeting stressed the importance of enhancing service consumption and implementing special actions to boost consumption, particularly in cultural tourism and healthcare services [3] Investment - The meeting called for high-quality promotion of "two重" construction, with the NDRC planning to expedite the establishment of new policy financial tools and improve investment return levels in key sectors [4] Market Competition - The meeting outlined detailed plans to advance the construction of a unified national market, optimize market competition order, and regulate chaotic competition among enterprises [4][5] Capital Market - The meeting expressed support for enhancing the attractiveness and inclusiveness of domestic capital markets, aiming to consolidate the positive momentum in the capital market [6] Emerging Industries - Recent policies focus on emerging industries such as artificial intelligence, humanoid robots, and low-altitude economy, with the government promoting large-scale commercial applications of AI [7][19] Childcare Subsidies - The implementation of a childcare subsidy system was announced, providing annual subsidies of 3,600 yuan per child until the age of three, with an initial budget of approximately 90 billion yuan for 2025 [17][18] Bond Market - Starting August 8, the Ministry of Finance will resume the collection of value-added tax on interest income from newly issued government bonds [8]

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - The economic situation judgment is optimistically cautious, with the macro - policy emphasizing continuity and stability, and leaving room for policy adjustment. The "15th Five - Year Plan" is set to play a crucial role in China's modernization process [7]. - Monetary policy remains moderately loose, with a possibility of reserve requirement ratio cuts and interest rate cuts. Structural tools are emphasized for targeted support [8]. - Fiscal policy is more proactive, with accelerated implementation of existing policies and potential new policies in consumption, technology, and foreign trade [14]. - The mid - term bond market yield is expected to continue its downward trend despite recent upward fluctuations [18]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Economic Situation and "15th Five - Year Plan" - The current macro - economy is stable with progress but still faces challenges. Macro - policies aim to maintain the upward trend, with a focus on stabilizing employment, enterprises, markets, and expectations [7]. - The "15th Five - Year Plan" is a key stage for China's modernization, with a dual mission of connecting the "14th Five - Year Plan" and the 2035 vision [7]. 3.2 Monetary Policy - The moderate - loose tone of monetary policy remains unchanged. The focus shifts to the priority of structural tools over aggregate ones, with an emphasis on guiding funds to the real economy [8]. - There is a possibility of interest rate cuts in the second half of the year due to factors such as the differentiated structural economic recovery, expected Fed rate cuts, and historical rate - cut rhythms [10][12]. 3.3 Fiscal Policy - Fiscal policy remains proactive, with a focus on accelerating the issuance and use of government bonds and ensuring the bottom - line of "Three Guarantees" at the grassroots level [14]. - In the second half of the year, the implementation of existing fiscal policies will accelerate, and new policies may be introduced to support consumption, technology, and foreign trade [17]. 3.4 Bond Market - The recent rise in bond yields is due to the resonance of economic fundamentals, policy, and capital factors. The 10 - year Treasury bond yield rose from about 1.65% to 1.75% in mid - to late July [18]. - Considering the policy's emphasis on continuity and stability and the economic weak - recovery reality, the mid - term bond yield is expected to continue its downward trend [18][19].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommended" rating for the banking sector, highlighting its configuration value amidst positive macroeconomic policies and ongoing support for consumption and technology [5][37]. Core Insights - The banking sector has shown resilience, with the PB ratio at 0.73 times and a dividend yield of 4.09%, indicating strong potential for investment [5][28]. - The resumption of VAT on newly issued government bonds is expected to impact banks' income and asset allocation, leading to a decrease in actual comprehensive yields for various bonds [11][10]. - The implementation of interest subsidies for personal consumption loans and service industry loans is anticipated to benefit retail banking operations, stimulating credit demand [16][5]. Summary by Sections Latest Research Insights - The July Politburo meeting emphasized the need for sustained macroeconomic policy support, focusing on stabilizing employment, enterprises, and market expectations [7][8]. - The meeting also highlighted the importance of expanding domestic demand and supporting new productive forces, which could benefit retail and technology finance sectors [9][8]. Weekly Market Performance - The banking sector outperformed the market, with a decline of 0.84% compared to a 1.75% drop in the CSI 300 index [5][17]. - Among listed banks, Agricultural Bank (+2.43%) and Industrial and Commercial Bank (+1.74%) showed notable gains [18][5]. Valuation of the Sector and Listed Companies - As of August 1, 2025, the banking sector's PB ratio stands at 0.73, reflecting a 43.98% discount compared to the overall A-share market [28][5]. - The report lists several banks with strong performance potential, including Industrial and Commercial Bank (601398), Agricultural Bank (601288), and Postal Savings Bank (601658) [37][5]. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests that low-valued joint-stock banks and quality regional banks are gaining attention from active funds, with a focus on the effectiveness of domestic demand expansion policies [37][5]. - The overall positive accumulation of fundamental factors in the banking sector indicates a potential turning point in performance [37][5].

行业周报 国债等恢复增值税征收,消费、经营贷将迎贴息 银行业周报 (2025.07.28-2025.08.03) 2025 年 8 月 4 日 核心观点 银行业 | | | 分析师 张一纬 ☎：010-8092-7617 z:zhangyiwei_yj@chinastock.com.cn 分析师登记编码：S0130519010001 研究助理 袁世麟 网: yuanshilin_yj@chinastock.com.cn 相对沪深 300 表现图 2025-08-01 20% 资料来源:ifind. 中国银河证券研究院 相关研究 www.chinastock.com.cn 证券研究报告 请务必阅读正文最后的中国银河证券股份有限公司免责声明 银行板块表现优于市场:本周沪深 300 指数下跌 1.75%,银行板块下跌 ● 0.84%。国有行、股份行、城商行、农商行分别+0.80%、-1.52%、-1.04%、 -2.30%。个股方面,9 家上市银行上涨,农业银行(+2.43%）、工商银行 (+1.74%)、邮储银行(+1.07%)、建设银行(+0.75%)、成都银行(+0.70%) 涨幅居前。截至8月1日,银行板块 ...

上周五美国的非农数据是令人惊掉下巴的，本身数据不及预期不说，前面两个月的数据修正直接移了一 个小数点。数据发布后，美股大跌。 恰好最近港股A股也不是那么稳定，调整的阴云笼罩在市场上。但今天的港股A股无疑是长脸的，市场 低开高走，非常强。 早盘的时候还是靠gjd拉着银行护住上证指数，拉着中芯国际护住双创指数和恒科指数，随着指数的稳 定，市场气氛明显重新升温。就是有明显利空事件的创新药，都几乎给拉回来了。 盘面上，最强的是军工，这个好理解，大月饼在即。除此之外，上周的政治局会议确定了10月四中全会 上研究十五五规划，新的五年规划首年军工往往会上这么多新项目，是炒作军工的好时期。 除了军工外，最强的就是机器人，这个板块上半年大涨了一波，随后又调整了几个月，但我们反复说过 了，机器人的未来是星辰大海，调的幅度和时间够了，只要有利好就非常容易刺激。这不，利好就来 了。周末北京经开区启动全球首个以机器人消费为主题的节日——E-Town机器人消费节。北京经开区 将发放专属消费券，个人消费者购买机器人产品最高可获得1500元补贴。 另外新消费也行，这个板块包括港股和A股部分公司，也调整很久了，今天表现也可以，猫粮、潮玩、 美 ...

Market Overview - The market indices mostly declined, with the CSI 100 experiencing a significant drop of -2.15%[28] - The average daily trading volume of the Wind All A index decreased to 18,096.34 billion CNY, down from 18,486.97 billion CNY, indicating a historical high position at the 93.40% percentile over the past three years[43][46] Economic Policy Insights - The Politburo meeting on July 30 conveyed a more optimistic economic outlook, emphasizing "steady progress" and the need for proactive fiscal policies[11] - The meeting highlighted the importance of enhancing the attractiveness and inclusivity of the domestic capital market, focusing on long-term competitiveness rather than short-term stability[11] Sector Performance - The healthcare index and information technology index showed relative strength, with weekly gains of 2.65% and 0.71%, respectively[31] - The real estate index and energy index underperformed, with declines of -3.57% and -3.49% respectively[31] Investment Recommendations - The report suggests maintaining investment in technology sectors (AI, robotics) and utility sectors, as well as brokerage firms, reflecting a shift from cyclical to innovation-driven market dynamics[18][21]

Core Viewpoint - Recent US non-farm payroll data was disappointing, leading to a significant drop in US stocks, while Hong Kong and A-shares showed resilience with a strong recovery after initial declines [2] Group 1: Market Performance - The market opened lower but rebounded strongly, supported by banks and key stocks like SMIC, indicating a positive shift in market sentiment [2] - The military industry sector performed exceptionally well, driven by upcoming projects related to the new five-year plan [2] - The robotics sector, after a period of adjustment, is poised for growth, especially with the launch of the E-Town Robotics Consumption Festival in Beijing, which includes consumer subsidies [2] Group 2: New Consumption Trends - The new consumption sector, including pet food, trendy products, beauty care, and jewelry, showed positive performance after a prolonged adjustment period [3] - Cleaning appliances have reached new highs, marking a rare strong performance in consumer goods since July [3] - Companies like Ecovacs and Roborock have seen significant stock price increases, indicating potential opportunities in the new consumption space [4] Group 3: Future Outlook - Despite general market volatility, the overall performance remains positive, suggesting resilience in the face of external pressures [5] - The potential for interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve could provide a boost to the market, with a focus on upcoming earnings reports and sectors that have seen prolonged adjustments [5] - Key areas to monitor include military, innovation drugs, robotics, and new consumption for potential investment opportunities [6]

证券研究报告 信用业务周报 7月政治局会议后市场或如何演绎？ 2025年8月4日 【市场回顾】 图表：市场表现回顾 数据来源：Wind，中泰证券研究所 2 【市场观察】7月政治局会议对市场影响几何？ 3 中泰证券研究所 分析师：徐驰 执业证书编号：S0740519080003 分析师：张文宇 执业证书编号：S0740520120003 请务必阅读正文之后的信息披露和重要声明 • 一、7月政治局会议对市场影响几何？ • 经济形势判断更加积极务实。7月30日中共中央政治局会议顺利召开，释放了当前和未来中国经济发 展的关键政策信号。会议明确指出，"我国经济运行稳中有进，高质量发展取得新成效，主要经济指标 表现良好，新质生产力积极发展"，展现出"强大活力和韧性"。与4月底政治局会议当时仅表示"经济呈 现向好态势"相比，本次会议措辞更为乐观自信，传达出政策层对未来经济形势向好的坚定判断。同时 ，会议在肯定成绩的同时，也客观指出当前经济运行中存在的矛盾和挑战。反映出政策层对相关风险 挑战的深刻认识，也为下半年经济工作指明了基本方法论。 • 总量政策保持定力，资本市场功能定位聚焦长期生态建设。会议重申"稳中求进"总基调，明 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommended" rating for the banking sector, highlighting its configuration value and positive fundamental factors accumulating [5][37]. Core Insights - The banking sector outperformed the market, with the banking index declining only 0.84% compared to a 1.75% drop in the CSI 300 index. Notably, state-owned banks showed a positive performance with a 0.80% increase [5][17]. - The recent Politburo meeting emphasized the continuation of proactive fiscal and monetary policies, which are expected to support bank credit and enhance the operating environment for banks [7][8]. - The restoration of VAT on newly issued government bonds is anticipated to increase banks' holding costs and affect their asset allocation strategies, leading to a decline in the actual comprehensive yield of various bonds [10][11]. - The implementation of interest subsidies for personal consumption loans and service industry loans is expected to benefit retail banking, stimulating credit demand and enhancing market vitality [16][37]. Summary by Sections Latest Research Insights - The Politburo meeting on July 30 focused on stabilizing employment, enterprises, and market expectations, with a commitment to implement more active fiscal policies and moderately loose monetary policies [7][8]. - The meeting also highlighted the importance of expanding domestic demand and developing new productive forces, which will benefit retail and technology finance businesses [9]. Weekly Market Performance - The banking sector's performance was relatively stable, with state-owned banks showing resilience. The overall banking sector's price-to-book (PB) ratio was 0.73, and the dividend yield was 4.09% as of August 1, 2025 [5][28]. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests that the banking sector's basic positive factors are continuously accumulating, and an inflection point in performance is expected. It recommends focusing on the effectiveness of a package of policies and the upcoming 20th Central Committee's Fourth Plenary Session [5][37]. - Specific stock recommendations include Industrial and Commercial Bank of China (601398), Agricultural Bank of China (601288), Postal Savings Bank of China (601658), Jiangsu Bank (600919), and Hangzhou Bank (600926) [5][37].

会上，9位委员企业家代表结合实际，从加快科技创新成果转化、加大科技创新领域金融支持、鼓 励民间资本参与创投、加快人工智能赋能千行百业、夯实数字底座、打造韧性智慧城市、加强人才引 育、文化创意产业发展、现代农业产业发展、促进共同富裕等方面提出意见建议。市发改委相关负责人 作回应发言。 马卫光不时与企业家互动交流。他说，大家的发言立足实际、直面问题、恳切务实、建议中肯，为 相关部门科学编制"十五五"规划拓展了思路、提供了参考。他指出，"十五五"时期是杭州抢抓战略机 遇、塑造发展新动能新优势的关键五年，高质量编制"十五五"规划是今年全市上下一件大事。市政协认 真贯彻省市委部署要求，将围绕做好"十五五"规划编制开展协商议政作为重点履职任务，组织开展多个 层面调研，扎实推进协商准备工作。企业家处于经济活动一线，对市场趋势的感受更敏锐，对产业发展 和科技创新的把握更直接。希望大家结合企业发展积极建言献策，为编制"十五五"规划提出更多有价值 的"金点子"。要进一步弘扬企业家精神，紧跟国家重大发展战略步伐，切实发挥企业创新主体作用，在 各行各业持续引领创新、推动发展，把高质量规划绘就的蓝图转化为高质量发展的实景。市相关部门要 ...