Core Insights - The article discusses the "15th Five-Year Plan" and its implications for the future development of China's economy, emphasizing the alignment of the company with national policy directions [2][28]. Group 1: Technological Innovation and Infrastructure - The company aims to support the "Two Major" construction projects by providing reliable solutions, leveraging its strong technical foundation [2][30]. - An example of innovation is the customized solution for the Yangtze River Protection Project, which involved creating tailored PE pipes to address installation challenges [4][30]. - Over half of the new patents obtained by the company by 2025 are derived from technological innovations related to "Two Major" projects [4][30]. Group 2: Housing Quality Improvement - The company is committed to enhancing housing quality, aligning with government initiatives to implement a housing quality improvement project and establish a safety management system for the entire lifecycle of buildings [6][32]. - In 2024, the company will launch the "Whole House·Company Home" solution, which promises a lifespan of up to 50 years, ensuring safety throughout the building's lifecycle [6][32]. - The company plans to showcase its new brand IP "Company Good House" at major exhibitions in 2025, translating the concept of quality housing into tangible experiences [8][34]. Group 3: Autonomous Innovation - The company prioritizes autonomous innovation as a key driver for development, establishing a collaborative innovation system through various research and development platforms [9][37]. - It has successfully introduced the largest diameter HDPE solid wall pipe production line in the country, breaking foreign technology monopolies [11][37]. - By the end of 2025, the company aims to have accumulated over 850 national and international patents and participated in the revision of 139 national and international standards [11][37]. Group 4: Green Transformation - The company is actively participating in pollution prevention and environmental protection projects across 75 counties, contributing to national green development goals [12][39]. - It has implemented energy-saving and carbon reduction measures through various systems, earning recognition as a national green factory [12][41]. - The company has developed and implemented 36 national and industry standards for green building materials, achieving 100% coverage of green products in its offerings [12][43]. Group 5: Artificial Intelligence Integration - The company has completed the smart transformation of its factories, applying artificial intelligence and industrial internet technologies to enhance production efficiency [20][45]. - New technologies such as AI defect recognition have been implemented, achieving a defect recognition rate of over 99.5% [22][45]. Group 6: Global Expansion and Cooperation - The company has expanded its international presence, registering its trademark in over 100 countries and establishing its fifth manufacturing base in Vietnam [23][49]. - The overseas market has seen a growth of 17.6% this year, contributing to the high-quality development of the "Belt and Road" initiative [23][49]. - The company aims to continue deepening its focus on "hidden engineering" to support national strategies and meet public needs [25][49].

Group 1: Stock Market Performance - The Chinese stock market achieved a "good start" for 2026, with all three major indices rising. The Shanghai Composite Index returned to the 4000-point mark, closing at 4023.42, up 1.38%. The Shenzhen Component rose by 2.24%, and the ChiNext Index increased by 2.85%, with over 4000 stocks rising and a trading volume of approximately 2.57 trillion yuan [7]. - Key factors driving the A-share market's performance include strengthened policy expectations, with a positive macro policy tone and the implementation of industry policies, particularly in commercial aerospace and semiconductor support, boosting market confidence [8]. - The influx of capital played a significant role, with foreign capital returning and the RMB appreciating, attracting over 10 billion yuan in northbound capital. Domestic long-term funds, including insurance and public funds, accelerated their entry, with margin trading balances exceeding 1.8 trillion yuan [8]. Group 2: Tourism Market - The New Year's tourism market also experienced a "good start," with 142 million domestic trips taken during the three-day holiday, generating a total expenditure of 84.789 billion yuan, averaging 597.11 yuan per person. Ticket bookings for domestic scenic spots increased by over four times year-on-year [8]. - The tourism sector is seen as a vital component of service consumption and a reflection of national consumer sentiment, with a strong start in tourism igniting confidence for economic development in 2026 [9]. Group 3: Foreign Debt Situation - The overall foreign debt situation in China is stable, with the total foreign debt balance as of September 30, 2025, being 16.8287 trillion yuan (approximately 2.3684 trillion USD), a decrease of 2.8% from June 2025 [9][10]. - The structure of foreign debt remains stable, with domestic currency debt accounting for 51.9% and medium to long-term foreign debt making up 42.5% of the total, indicating that key indicators are within internationally recognized safety lines [10]. Group 4: Regulatory Developments - The China Securities Regulatory Commission (CSRC) released the "Implementation Measures for Supervision and Management of Securities and Futures Markets" to further standardize the implementation procedures of market supervision, effective from June 30, 2026 [11]. - The China Banking and Insurance Asset Management Association published the "Data Classification and Grading Guidelines for the Insurance Asset Management Industry," effective January 1, 2026, aimed at enhancing data management standards in the industry [12][13]. - The CSRC announced the pilot program for Real Estate Investment Trusts (REITs) in commercial real estate, which is expected to provide new financing channels for real estate companies and enhance the stability of the REITs market [14]. Group 5: Low-altitude Economy in Shanghai - Shanghai aims to achieve a core industry scale of approximately 80 billion yuan in the low-altitude economy by 2028, establishing a complete industrial chain for new low-altitude aircraft and creating a national advanced manufacturing cluster [15][16].

Core Viewpoint - The year 2026 marks a significant turning point in China's economic history, transitioning from "scale dividends" to a focus on "system security and quality efficiency revolution" as the old trade and growth logic fails [1][2]. Group 1: Economic Transition - The "Fifteen Five" plan signifies a shift in China's economic strategy, with a complex non-linear system emerging that renders traditional GDP growth and monetary policy approaches ineffective [2][3]. - Historical patterns show that every five-year plan corresponds with a restructuring of wealth logic, indicating the importance of understanding policy language to navigate economic changes [1][11]. Group 2: Policy Interpretation - The upcoming "Fifteen Five" plan presents unprecedented complexities in macroeconomic policy, making it challenging to translate administrative language into actionable asset allocation strategies [3][12]. - The course led by Dr. Xiong Yuan aims to decode the "Fifteen Five" plan's core keywords, distinguishing between soft guidance and hard constraints, which is crucial for investors [14][15]. Group 3: Investment Strategy - Investors must prepare for the new economic environment by understanding the implications of central government leverage and the boundaries of fiscal policy post-2026 [12][15]. - The course will cover how to utilize forward-looking indicators like PMI and PPI to anticipate policy shifts and manage the time lag between policy announcements and market reactions [12][15].

Group 1 - BOVOR International Planning Consulting Group (BIA) is a renowned international planning consulting agency with over 30 years of experience in strategic consulting, development research, and project planning, providing development planning consulting services to various government levels and enterprises [1] - BOVOR has a professional team for the preparation of the 14th Five-Year Plan, offering a series of planning consulting services including preliminary research, planning outline and report preparation, and mid-term evaluation, leveraging nearly 30 years of experience in regional planning and economic research in China [2][4] - BOVOR has established a multidisciplinary research team covering spatial, economic, social, ecological, and cultural fields, accumulating hundreds of development planning research consulting project experiences, making it one of the earliest think tanks studying regional development in China [4] Group 2 - BOVOR has served numerous cities across China, including over 10 sub-provincial cities, and has worked with well-known large enterprises such as Shanghai Shansi Real Estate Group and Qingdao Huadong Group [6] - The Qinhuangdao Port High-tech Zone project, approved in 2011, covers a total planned area of 22.63 square kilometers, with a functional positioning of "two bases, one area, and one park," focusing on high-tech industry cultivation and traditional industry optimization [10] - The industrial system of the high-tech zone is positioned as "one main, two leading, and three optimizing," with a focus on intelligent equipment manufacturing, leading development in mobile internet and smart community industries, and optimizing traditional materials and smart service industries [10]

Group 1 - The capital market shows strong resilience at the beginning of 2026, with high investor participation and robust market momentum [1] - The year 2026 marks the start of the "15th Five-Year Plan," carrying the important mission of establishing a good foundation for future growth amid changing domestic and international macro environments [1] - Internationally, the evolving global liquidity landscape is influenced by subtle adjustments in the Federal Reserve's monetary policy, varying recovery dynamics in Europe, and the Bank of Japan's policy responses to inflation pressures [1] Group 2 - The fiscal and monetary policies in the opening year of the "15th Five-Year Plan" are expected to provide sustained upward momentum for the capital market [1] - The A-share market presents both opportunities and challenges as it navigates through the complexities of the current economic environment [1] - An investment strategy conference hosted by Bosera Funds and Securities Times is set to take place on January 9, 2026, focusing on policy guidance, market analysis, and investment opportunities [2]

Group 1 - The article highlights the strong resilience of the capital market at the beginning of 2026, driven by high investor enthusiasm and robust market dynamics [1] - It emphasizes the significance of 2026 as the starting year of the "14th Five-Year Plan," which carries the mission of establishing a good foundation for future growth amidst changing macroeconomic conditions [1] - The external environment is characterized by subtle adjustments in the Federal Reserve's monetary policy, varying recovery momentum in Europe, and Japan's policy responses to inflation pressures, contributing to a complex global liquidity landscape [1] Group 2 - The article discusses the dual opportunities and challenges present in the A-share market as the fiscal and monetary policies in 2026 are expected to provide sustained upward momentum for the capital market [1] - A significant event, the "2026 Investment Strategy Conference," organized by Bosera Fund and Securities Times, is set to take place on January 9, featuring industry experts and analysts who will analyze policy directions, market logic, and investment opportunities [1][2]

编者按：研判"十五五"是近期国内出版界的热点选题，不断有重磅学术论著出炉。国家发展改革委国土 开发与地区经济研究所副研究员徐策博士近日出版新著，以小切口入手，梳理了40多个关键问题并加以 系统分析，作为"十五五"时期中国式现代化建设的战略抓手。徐策博士曾参与国家"十二五"规划中期评 估，国家"十三五"规划、"十四五"规划起草，并主持部分地区"十五五"规划研究起草，具有较为丰富的 政策研究经验。房地产受到全社会高度关注，也是经济增长的重点和难点。作者认为，在经济新旧动能 转换过程中，房地产业转型既是"压舱石"，又是"新引擎"。作者既看到了当前房地产下行的症结所在， 也给出了房地产业转型发展空间广阔的乐观解读。 徐策/文 作为内需的重要组成部分，房地产业将在中长期内始终维持支柱产业地位，是拉动投资、稳定增长、实 现国民经济稳步复苏的关键力量。但也要看到，在房地产市场供求关系发生重大变化的背景下，以往高 负债、粗放型的发展模式已难以为继。"十五五"时期，要"对症下药"、创新模式和业态，推动房地产高 质量发展，有效激发房地产业转型过程中的新动能。 徐策 著 东方出版社 2026年1月 整体上看，中长期内房地产业占GD ...

Core Insights - The new materials industry is positioned as a cornerstone for high-end manufacturing and is crucial for the modernization of the industrial system, directly impacting supply chain security [1] - During the 14th Five-Year Plan period, the market size of the new materials industry is expected to grow from 7.2 trillion yuan to between 13.5 trillion and 16 trillion yuan, with a talent gap of 4 million professionals [1] Group 1: Industry Overview - The new materials sector plays a pivotal role in various high-tech applications, including breakthroughs in electric vehicle range, semiconductor chip autonomy, biomedical innovations, and aerospace equipment upgrades [1] - The materials science and engineering discipline is highlighted as a strategic core major, combining comprehensive academic rigor, forward-looking applications, and essential industry demand [2] Group 2: Employment Opportunities - Employment prospects span multiple high-paying sectors, including new energy materials, high-end equipment manufacturing, biomedical applications, electronic information, aerospace, and energy conservation [4] - The new energy materials and devices major aligns with national energy transition strategies, focusing on the development of key materials and core devices for the new energy sector [4][6] Group 3: Specialized Fields - The polymer materials and engineering major addresses core industry needs such as automotive lightweighting and high-end chemical upgrades, emphasizing practical technology and industry adaptability [7] - Research directions in high-performance engineering plastics and environmentally friendly biodegradable materials are crucial for the development of high-end chemicals and green manufacturing [9] Group 4: Educational Recommendations - Students with a solid foundation in chemistry and physics are encouraged to consider new materials-related majors, as these fields require strong analytical and practical skills [11] - Institutions with strong academic programs in materials science and engineering, such as Tsinghua University and Shanghai Jiao Tong University, are recommended for prospective students [11]

Investment Outlook - Fixed asset investment is expected to stabilize in 2026, with a significant decline in growth observed in the second half of 2025, where the investment growth rate fell to -6.2% in Q3, down 8.2 percentage points from Q2[12] - Despite the decline, capital formation growth remained positive, with a Q3 growth rate of 2.3%, only slightly down from 3.2% in Q2[12] - Electricity consumption in the secondary and tertiary industries has shown a recovery since July, indicating resilient investment momentum[10] Policy Support - A new policy financial tool of 500 billion yuan was fully deployed by the end of October 2025, expected to support approximately 7 trillion yuan in total investment across over 2,300 projects[41] - The Central Economic Work Conference in December 2025 emphasized the need for investment stabilization in 2026, with clear directives for increasing central budget investments and optimizing local government bond usage[41] Economic Stability - The "14th Five-Year Plan" is anticipated to drive significant project approvals and construction in 2026, potentially accelerating investment growth[10] - Local government leadership changes in 2026 may further emphasize economic stability, historically correlating with a rebound in economic growth prior to national congresses[10] Monetary and Fiscal Policy - Fiscal policy is expected to maintain a "front-loaded" approach in 2026, with a rapid issuance of new special bonds anticipated in the first half of the year[46] - Monetary policy is likely to align with fiscal measures, actively supporting economic growth in the first half of 2026, similar to actions taken in 2025[51]

Core Viewpoint - In 2025, China's economy demonstrates strong resilience and vitality, achieving stable growth amidst global economic challenges and geopolitical conflicts. The focus is on enhancing macroeconomic policy effectiveness to support sustained economic recovery as the country enters the "15th Five-Year Plan" period [1]. Economic Performance - China's GDP growth rate for the first three quarters of 2025 is 5.2%, aligning closely with its potential growth rate and significantly improving from a -0.3% output gap in 2024. This positions China as a leader among major global economies, especially as the global economic growth rate is projected at 3.2% for 2025, a slight decline from 2024 [2]. Industrial and Service Sector Resilience - The industrial sector shows strong recovery, with industrial added value growth at 6.2% in the first three quarters of 2025, an increase of 1.6 percentage points from 2023 and 0.4 percentage points from 2024. The service sector also performs well, with a 5.4% increase in added value, surpassing 2024's growth by 0.4 percentage points [3]. Risk Management and Economic Stability - Significant progress has been made in risk prevention and resolution, particularly through policies aimed at stabilizing market order and curbing irrational competition. The recovery of consumer and producer price indices has improved corporate profit expectations and market confidence, supporting overall economic stability [3]. Achievements of the 14th Five-Year Plan - The year 2025 marks the successful conclusion of the 14th Five-Year Plan, with GDP growth contributing over 35 trillion yuan, equivalent to creating an economy the size of the Yangtze River Delta. Despite various challenges, the average annual growth rate during this period is approximately 5.5%, contributing about 30% to global economic growth [4]. Policy Recommendations for 2026 - For 2026, it is recommended to set reasonable GDP growth and price targets to signal stability and confidence in economic policies. The aim is to achieve around 5% growth, considering the complexities of the external environment [5][6]. Strengthening Industrial Competitiveness - Emphasis on consolidating the advantages of a complete industrial system is crucial. This includes maintaining a reasonable manufacturing sector proportion, addressing weaknesses in key areas like integrated circuits and high-end instruments, and promoting intelligent, green, and integrated industrial development [7]. Expanding Domestic Demand - Strategies to boost domestic demand should focus on both consumption and investment. This includes enhancing income stability, increasing public investment in education and healthcare, and optimizing the investment structure to support high-quality growth in technology and emerging industries [8]. Coordinated Macroeconomic Policies - The "three policies in one" approach is essential for balancing supply and demand, involving coordinated monetary, fiscal, and structural policies to create a synergistic effect that promotes economic stability and growth [9].