Group 1: Economic Performance - In Q1 2025, China's nominal GDP was approximately 31.9 trillion yuan, with a real GDP growth of 5.4% year-on-year, maintaining the high point from Q4 2024[1] - The contribution of final consumption, capital formation, and net exports to GDP growth in Q1 was 2.8, 0.5, and 2.1 percentage points respectively, with contribution rates of 51.9%, 9.3%, and 38.9%[1] - The average contribution of final consumption, capital formation, and net exports to GDP growth from 2020 to 2024 was 2.7, 1.5, and 0.8 percentage points, totaling approximately 5.0%[2] Group 2: Future Outlook - In Q2 2025, domestic real GDP is expected to fall below 5.0% due to a slowdown in domestic demand and a significant decline in external demand[4] - The "internal demand compensating for external demand" strategy will be crucial for economic growth in Q2 2025[2] - The service sector's recovery is anticipated to enhance the effectiveness of the "internal demand compensating for external demand" strategy in Q2 2025[3] Group 3: Risks and Challenges - Risks include a potential reduction in policy stimulus and uncertainties in overseas economic policies[5] - The impact of U.S. tariffs on Chinese exports may lead to a notable decline in external demand, affecting overall economic growth in Q2 2025[2]

Wind梳理近期券商研报以及多位机构知名首席的公开观点发现，中信证券首席经济学家明明、华泰证券首席宏观经济学家易峘、中金公司首席国内策略 分析师李求索，以及广发证券策略首席分析师刘晨明等，均表示接下来将 重点关注经济增速目标、财政政策、货币政策。他们对资本市场持乐观态度， 并认为中国资产的吸引力有望进一步显现。 // 1. 宏观经济关注点 // 经济增速： 多数机构观点认为2025年我国GDP增速目标为5%左右。 中信证券明明通过分析北京、上海等地GDP增速目标，判断2025年全国经济增速目标可能为5.0%左右 ，其认为更加积极有为的宏观政策将带动实现这一 增速，且消费会是重要政策抓手。 李求索根据各地公布的经济增速目标，计算整体加权平均增长目标为 5.3%（2024年GDP增长目标为5.4%）。 2025年全国两会召开在即，与此相关的3月资本市场机会受到高度关注。 通胀目标： 中金公司研报分析，各地CPI目标普遍下调至2%左右，预计2025年全国 CPI目标也将从过去几年的3%左右下调至2%左右。 西部证券则认为物价目标有望更具刚性，CPI目标可能维持在3%左右。 // 2. 财政政策关注点 // 赤字率： ...