Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the strategic divergence between Germany and France in response to the impending U.S. tariffs on the EU, highlighting the differing approaches to negotiations and potential impacts on the European economy [1][5][6]. Group 1: U.S. Tariff Threat and EU Response - The U.S. is threatening to impose a 50% tariff on EU steel and aluminum products, along with a 25% tariff on automobiles and a 10% baseline tariff on all EU imports [1]. - The European Commission is evaluating the latest U.S. proposal and is prepared for a potential breakdown in negotiations, indicating that "all options are on the table" [1][5]. Group 2: Economic Impact on Germany - According to the German Ifo Institute, the German manufacturing sector could face severe impacts from U.S. tariffs, with a projected overall shrinkage of 2.8% and a 38.5% drop in exports to the U.S. [9]. - The automotive and pharmaceutical industries are expected to be the most affected, with value losses of 6% and 9% respectively [9]. Group 3: Divergent Strategies within the EU - Germany's Chancellor Merz advocates for a focused approach to negotiate tariffs on key industries, while France's President Macron insists on a zero-tariff agreement, warning against perceived weakness in negotiations [6][7]. - Italy's Prime Minister Meloni suggests accepting some tariffs to avoid worsening the situation, indicating a willingness to compromise [7]. Group 4: Future Trade Strategies - EU officials are considering a framework agreement to buy time for further negotiations, acknowledging the challenges of aligning positions among 27 member states [8]. - The EU is actively seeking to diversify its trade networks, with leaders expressing support for a free trade agreement with the South American Mercosur bloc [10].

Core Viewpoint - The China Council for the Promotion of International Trade (CCPIT) will host the Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO) Business Forum during the third Chain Expo, emphasizing regional cooperation and dialogue among businesses [1][2]. Group 1: Forum Details - The forum will take place on July 17 and is themed "Promoting the Shanghai Spirit: Business Community in Action," focusing on actionable outcomes and local development concerns [1]. - Activities will include a series of "SCO Entrepreneurs' Local Tours" in regions such as Xinjiang, Hunan, and Chongqing, aimed at enhancing cooperation in arbitration, cultural tourism, and economic investment [1]. Group 2: Research and Collaboration - The forum will release the "SCO Supply Chain Development Research Report," providing policy recommendations to enhance cooperation in industrial and supply chains among member countries [1]. - Three enterprise matchmaking events will be organized in agriculture, energy, and logistics, alongside exhibition activities to help businesses find optimal partners for resource allocation [1]. Group 3: Current Economic Climate - The current environment for China-Central Asia business cooperation is robust, with a growing willingness for collaboration despite challenges posed by unilateralism and protectionism [2]. - The year marks the "China Year" for the SCO, with significant activities planned to strengthen ties, including multiple delegations of Chinese entrepreneurs visiting SCO member states [2]. Group 4: Recent Achievements - During the second China-Central Asia Summit, 32 contracts and intention agreements were signed between Chinese and Central Asian enterprises, amounting to $11 billion, covering sectors like energy, logistics, and agricultural trade [3].

本报（chinatimes.net.cn）记者张智 天津摄影报道 2008年夏天，达沃斯论坛从阿尔卑斯山的雪山之巅，首次到达太平洋西岸的渤海之滨。彼时，正值国际 金融危机，世界经济遭受严重冲击，各国对世界经济能不能走出困境、将走向何方普遍感到迷茫和焦 虑。在那一年，无数的声音从天津发出，为世界经济建言献策。 2025年，当命运的齿轮再次将世界经济和国际经贸合作推向新的困难和挑战时，各国领导人再次聚首天 津。 6月25日下午，李强在天津出席2025年夏季达沃斯论坛工商界代表座谈会时表示，中国经济保持稳定增 长态势，不仅在于稳中向好的基本面和积极有为的宏观政策，还在于高度重视发挥市场的力量、发挥企 业的力量，这其中广大外资企业作出了重要贡献。同时，中国也为外资企业的发展提供了广阔天地。 他表示，这次论坛以"新时代企业家精神"为主题，具有重要现实意义。新时代需要企业家们发挥更大作 用、展现更大作为。 "企业家精神是科技创新与产业应用的内在驱动力。企业家在推动经济增长和创新发展、促进就业和服 务社会等方面发挥着不可替代的作用。尽管全球经济面临诸多不确定性挑战，中国经济依然展现出强大 的内生动力和适应力，这离不开企业家 ...

参与论坛的工商界代表表示，在华外资企业多年来见证了中国经济持续增长，中国的政策稳定性和规划 长期性在当前不确定性上升的全球形势下尤为珍贵。近段时间以来，伴随着稳增长政策的落地，中国经 济展现出巨大韧性，摩根士丹利、德意志银行、高盛等多家外资机构纷纷上调对于中国经济增长的预 期。事实一再证明，得益于明确的发展目标、连贯的规划引领、坚定的改革举措、务实的宏观政策，即 使外部冲击加大，中国依然有信心、有能力保持经济较快增长。世界经济论坛总裁博尔格·布伦德认 为，中国接连推出一系列政策举措，确保必要的结构性改革扎实推进，不仅有助于实现今年5%左右的 经济增长目标，还将为未来10年打下基础、做好铺垫。 "在世界经济形势严峻复杂背景下，中国经济展现出强劲韧性""中国的创新与开放有助于增强自由贸易 和多边体制的韧性""中国持续为全球发展注入强劲动力，仍是国际投资与合作的热土和沃土"……日前 在天津举行的第十六届夏季达沃斯论坛上，与会人士触摸中国经济发展脉动，共商世界经济复苏之策， 对中国经济前景和开放合作充满信心。 中国不断扩大开放，在与世界经济的深度联动中持续创造着共赢故事。作为全球第二大消费市场和进口 市场，中国有近5 ...

| 集运指数（欧线）期货日报 | | | | | | 2025/6/26 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 项目类别 数据指标 环比 | 数据指标 | 最新 | | 最新 | | 环比 | | EC主力收盘价 | | 1759.900 | 21.6↑ EC次主力收盘价 | | 1325.6 | +37.10↑ | | 期货盘面 EC2508-EC2510价差 | -13.10↓ EC2508-EC2512价差 | 434.30 | | | 270.80 | -33.70↓ | | EC合约基差 | -19.70↓ | 177.24 | | | | | | 期货持仓头寸（手） EC主力持仓量 | -2043↓ | 41485 | | | | | | SCFIS（欧线）（周） | 239.51↑ SCFIS（美西线）（周） | 1937.14 | | | 2,083.46 | -825.22↓ | | SCFI（综合指数）（周） | -218.65↓ 集装箱船运力（万标准箱） | 1869.59 | | | 1,227.97 | -0.10↓ | | ...

光大期货金融期货日报 光大期货金融期货日报（2025 年 06 月 26 日） 一、研究观点 | 品种 | 点评 | 观点 | | --- | --- | --- | | 股指 | 国内基本面来看，5 月 PPI 同比-3.3%，较 4 月环比下滑；新增人民币贷款 | 震荡 | | | 6200 亿元人民币，比上年同期少增 3300 亿元。化债背景下信用收缩、需求 | | | | 不足仍是当前主要矛盾，指数很难突破中枢大幅上涨。另一方面，2025 年上 | | | | 半年企业盈利情况较 2024 年有明显改善，在配置型资金托底的背景下，A 股 | | | | 指数短期同样不会出现大幅下跌的走势。预期未来指数仍以震荡为主。 | | | | 国债期货收盘，30 年期主力合约跌 0.22%，10 年期主力合约跌 0.04%，2 年 | | | | 期主力合约涨 0.01%，5 年期主力合约基本持稳。中国央行开展 3653 亿元 7 | | | | 天期逆回购操作，利率持稳于 1.4%。公开市场有 1563 亿元逆回购到期，净 | | | | 投放 2090 亿元。2025 年 6 月 25 日中国人民银行将以固定 ...

Group 1 - The 16th Summer Davos Forum took place in Tianjin from June 24 to 26, 2025, with over 1,700 representatives from more than 90 countries and regions attending [1] - Former UK Prime Minister Tony Blair emphasized the need for deeper cultural exchanges and understanding of China beyond a Western perspective, highlighting the significant societal changes in China since his first visit in 1988 [1] - Blair categorized the international attitude towards China into two groups: those who do not wish for China's rise and those who accept it, advocating for the latter and calling for a more nuanced understanding of China's global role [1] Group 2 - Vietnamese Prime Minister Pham Minh Chinh pointed out various risks and challenges facing Asia, such as rising protectionism, economic slowdown, climate change, and resource scarcity, while also highlighting the opportunities available [2] - Chinh proposed the establishment of an "Asian Innovation Network" to integrate resources from major countries, research institutions, universities, and businesses to support small and medium enterprises [2] - Singaporean Prime Minister Lawrence Wong, during his first visit to China since taking office, stressed the importance of maintaining a rules-based multilateral order [2] Group 3 - Wong expressed concerns about the impact of U.S. tariff policies on global order, suggesting that while the era of free trade may be ending, trade will continue, and Singapore aims to maintain its competitiveness [3] - Both Chinh and Wong discussed the need for Vietnam and Singapore to find a balance between China and the U.S. in light of current geopolitical tensions, with Vietnam's trade heavily reliant on both nations [3] - Chinh reiterated Vietnam's independent and non-aligned foreign policy, aiming to maintain friendly relations with all countries, while Wong emphasized Singapore's commitment to its national interests without favoring either China or the U.S. [3]

首席点评：稳定币是机遇也是挑战 国际货币基金组织（ IMF）副总裁李波在2025年夏季达沃斯论坛上表示，稳定币的发展既存在机遇， 也存在挑战，核心挑战在于，如何对稳定币实施有效的监管，需要在全球范围内达成更多共识。欧洲央 行担忧，稳定币可能威胁金融稳定并影响数字欧元推行，但欧盟委员会认为风险可控。伊朗议会通过一 项法案，暂停伊朗与联合国核监督机构的合作。美国总统特朗普表示，美方将于下周与伊朗就一项潜在 的核协议展开会谈。美联储主席鲍威尔表示，目前经济形势存在高度不确定性，希望以实际数据为依 据，而不是过于自信地做出预测，某个时候美联储将会恢复降息。国务院总理表示当前国际经贸格局正 在发生深刻变化，我们应当坚定不移拥抱普惠包容的经济全球化，维护自由贸易和多边主义，促进世界 经济稳定发展。海外美股涨跌不一，美债收益率回落，原油止跌，国内夜盘能化、农产品、黑色板块多 数上涨。 重点品种：贵金属、股指、橡胶 贵金属：金银小幅反弹。以色列和伊朗同意全面停火，美国总统特朗普表示，美方将于下周与伊朗就一 项潜在的核协议展开会谈，但他多次强调自己并不认为这类协议 "有多必要"。美联储主席鲍威尔在国 会证词中表示，美联储目前处 ...

6月25日上午，国务院总理李强在天津出席2 0 2 5年夏季达沃斯论坛开幕式 并致辞。 李强表示，当前国际经贸格局正在发生深刻变化。 中国将继续 积极融入全球市场，为世界经济所需贡献中国经济所能。 来源丨新华社 编辑丨丁开艳 责编丨兰银帆 往期回顾 Review of Past Articles - 01 潘功胜：区域国家团结一致应对美关税冲击｜宏观经济 李强表示，中国将继续积极融入全球市场，为世界经济所需贡献中国经济所能。多年来，中国经济之所 以是世界经济增长的重要引擎，不仅在于自身的稳定性和高成长性，还在于中国经济的开放性和与世界 经济的联动性。中国经济持续稳健增长，将为世界经济加快复苏提供有力支撑。中国市场持续扩容提 质，将为国际经贸扭转颓势创造增量空间。中国创新持续突破跃升，将为全球发展摆脱动能不足注入新 的活力。 李强强调，这次论坛以"新时代企业家精神"为主题，具有重要现实意义。新时代需要企业家们发挥更大 作用、展现更大作为。希望大家多行大道之事，多干开拓之事，多做共赢之事。中国政府将持续打造市 场化、法治化、国际化一流营商环境，也将始终敞开怀抱，热诚欢迎各国企业投资中国、深耕中国，与 中国一起发展 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article emphasizes the importance of embracing inclusive economic globalization and maintaining free trade and multilateralism to promote stable global economic development [1][2]. Group 1: Current Economic Landscape - The international economic and trade landscape is undergoing profound changes, with a more diversified trade system and the rapid rise of global southern powers [1]. - Traditional trade growth is slowing down, while emerging trade is experiencing counter-cyclical growth [1]. - There is an increase in regional cooperation amidst the challenges faced by global mechanisms, and cross-border investment is experiencing downward volatility [1]. Group 2: China's Role in Global Economy - China aims to actively integrate into the global market and contribute to the world economy, leveraging its stability, high growth, and openness [2]. - The continuous and robust growth of the Chinese economy is expected to provide strong support for the global economic recovery [2]. - China's expanding and improving market will create new opportunities for international trade [2]. Group 3: Entrepreneurial Spirit and Cooperation - The forum's theme, "Entrepreneurial Spirit in the New Era," highlights the need for entrepreneurs to play a larger role and achieve greater accomplishments [2]. - The Chinese government is committed to creating a first-class business environment that is market-oriented, law-based, and internationalized [2]. - China welcomes foreign enterprises to invest and deepen their engagement in the Chinese market, aiming for mutual development and a better future [2].