Fundamental Analysis - Optimism in trade negotiations has weakened the appeal of safe-haven assets like gold, as President Trump postponed the implementation of tariffs on 14 countries to August 1, providing a three-week buffer for negotiations [3] - The strong US dollar, which rose 0.3% to 97.83, continues to exert pressure on gold prices, supported by positive expectations regarding the US economy and a strong June employment report [4] - Rising US Treasury yields, with the 10-year yield reaching 4.435% and the 30-year yield at 4.974%, increase the opportunity cost of holding non-yielding assets like gold, thereby reducing its attractiveness [5] - Trump's announcement of a 50% tariff on imported copper and impending tariffs on semiconductors and pharmaceuticals may raise inflation expectations, enhancing gold's long-term appeal as an inflation hedge, but could also delay Fed rate cuts, limiting short-term price increases [6] Technical Analysis - On the daily chart, gold has shown a downward trend since being resisted at 3365/3366, with current moving averages indicating a bearish outlook [8] - Key resistance levels are identified at 3320 and 3346, while support levels are at 3287 and 3276, with a significant trendline support at 3247/3245 [10] - The four-hour chart indicates a continuation of the downward trend, with resistance levels at 3316/3324 and support at 3283/3278, suggesting a cautious approach until a clear trend reversal is observed [10] Key Events to Watch - Upcoming economic data releases include China's June CPI, New Zealand's interest rate decision, and the US wholesale sales data, which may influence market sentiment and gold prices [12]

美国商务部长卢特尼克：（谈及欧盟贸易谈判时表示）他们已经提出了真正的提议。 ...

本文字数：3705，阅读时长大约6分钟 2025.07. 08 作者 | 第一财经 周艾琳 高雅 关税风云进入第二季，但对于全球市场的影响在减弱。 据新华社消息，美国总统特朗普7日表示，将从8月1日起分别对来自日本、韩国等14个国家的进口产品 征收25%至40%不等的关税。 但此次关税风暴的冲击不及4月，美国三大指数7日跌幅不到1%；亚太股市7月8日表现更令人意外，日 韩股市并没有明显受到影响，日经225指数、韩国Kospi指数分别上涨0.25%、1.81%；上证综指和恒 生指数8日分别涨0.7%和1.09%；截至记者发稿，欧洲股市主要指数走势平稳，英国富时100指数、德 国DAX指数8日盘中小幅上涨。 截至北京时间7月8日21时20分，亚太主要股市当日收盘均出现上涨，欧洲主要股指当日盘中走势平稳，多数上涨。 接受第一财经记者采访的投资经理和策略师表示，市场对关税的担忧有所下降。高盛认为，欧美贸易谈 判达成协议的可能性在变大。同时，机构对股市的配置热度普遍升温，投行更是逆势上调美股目标价， 投资者亦敢于加码包括中国在内的亚太股市。唯独对于美债，各界依然保持担忧，全球央行增配黄金的 趋势仍将继续。 全球经济分析 ...

日本经济再生大臣、首席贸易谈判代表赤泽亮正与美国财长贝森特进行了30分钟的电话会谈。美国与日本同意继续就关税问题进行积极的磋商。日本继续寻求与美国达成互利共赢的协议。 ...

日本经济再生大臣、首席贸易谈判代表赤泽亮正与美国财长贝森特进行了电话会谈。美国与日本同意继续就关税问题进行积极的磋商。日本继续寻求与美国达成互利共赢的协议。 ...

Group 1 - The EU is negotiating with the US to finalize a preliminary trade agreement before August 1 to avoid higher tariffs on key industries [1][3] - The focus of the negotiations includes excluding high-value export goods such as aircraft, wine, and spirits from the 10% tariff [1][3] - The EU aims to protect its core industries and gain leverage in longer-term negotiations while seeking a buffer period for local industries [1][3] Group 2 - The EU's strategy is a response to the Trump administration's announcement of tariffs ranging from 25% to 40% on various goods, while maintaining a 10% baseline tariff for the EU [3][4] - The aviation industry is crucial for the EU, involving multiple countries like Germany, France, and Spain, and higher tariffs could harm profitability and high-skilled jobs [3][4] - Wine and spirits are significant exports for countries like France and Italy, and increased tariffs could lead to a loss of market share to competitors like Australia and Chile [3][4] Group 3 - Even if a preliminary agreement is reached, the EU's challenges remain due to the unpredictable nature of Trump's trade policies [4][5] - The EU's concessions reveal its passive stance in negotiations, lacking a unified diplomatic strategy and facing internal pressures [4][5] - The future of negotiations hinges on whether the EU will make concessions in certain industries for overall stability and whether the US will impose additional structural demands post-agreement [4][5]

Core Viewpoint - The U.S. President Trump announced a plan to impose tariffs ranging from 25% to 40% on imports from 14 countries, including Japan and South Korea, starting August 1, which has led to immediate responses from the affected nations and raised new challenges in international trade relations [1][2][4]. Group 1: Responses from Affected Countries - Japan expressed "regret" over the U.S. decision but remains open to negotiations, indicating potential modifications to the tariff letter before the deadline [2][3]. - South Korea vowed to expedite tariff negotiations with the U.S. to resolve trade uncertainties swiftly [3][4]. - Thailand's finance minister expressed shock at the tariff rates but is confident in reducing them to levels similar to other countries [4][5]. - Malaysia and Myanmar are also seeking to engage with the U.S. to negotiate fair trade agreements or lower tariffs [5][6]. Group 2: Specific Country Reactions - South Africa's President Cyril Ramaphosa challenged the accuracy of the tariff calculations, asserting that there are discrepancies in trade data interpretation between the two nations [6][7]. - Brazil's President Lula criticized the U.S. tariffs as "wrong and irresponsible," emphasizing that other countries could retaliate with equivalent tariffs if the U.S. proceeds [7][8]. Group 3: Broader Implications - Despite various countries actively seeking to resolve the crisis through dialogue, previous efforts have not significantly influenced the final outcomes, leading to increased uncertainty in future trade relations [1][7].

免责声明 局势升温或带动金价反弹。 本报告中的信息均来源于公开可获得资料，瑞达期货股份有限公司力求准确可靠，但对这些信息的准确性及完整性不做任 何保证，据此投资，责任自负。本报告不构成个人投资建议，客户应考虑本报告中的任何意见或建议是否符合其特定状况。本 加速全球去美元化进程，削弱美元作为传统避险资产的需求，提振黄金货币属性。中长期而言，美国财政 研究员: 廖宏斌 期货从业资格号F3082507 期货投资咨询从业证书号Z0020723 报告版权仅为我公司所有，未经书面许可，任何机构和个人不得以任何形式翻版、复制和发布。如引用、刊发，需注明出处为 赤字持续扩大、美元信用边际弱化、全球央行储备调整趋势未改，构成黄金价格的核心支撑，短期内关税 贵金属产业日报 2025-07-08 | 项目类别 | 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 期货市场 | 沪金主力合约收盘价(日,元/克) | 776.22 | 4.92 沪银主力合约收盘价(日,元/千克) | 8953 | 81 | | | 主力合约持仓量:沪金(日, ...

Core Viewpoint - Germany's exports have declined for the second consecutive month, with a significant drop of 7.7% in exports to the U.S., marking the lowest level in over three years, highlighting the ongoing impact of tariff threats on Europe's largest economy [1][3]. Group 1: Export Data - In May, Germany's goods exports fell by 1.4% month-on-month, exceeding the expected decline of 0.5% [1]. - Exports to the U.S. plummeted by 7.7%, with a value of €12.1 billion, the lowest since March 2022 [3]. - In April, U.S. tariffs had already caused a decline of approximately 10% in German exports to the U.S. [3]. Group 2: Economic Outlook - Joachim Nagel, the President of the German Central Bank, warned of significant short-term economic challenges, with the bank projecting that the German economy will stagnate this year [4][5]. - Despite the challenges, there is some optimism due to the German government's plans to significantly increase defense and infrastructure spending [6]. Group 3: Trade Negotiations - The EU is actively seeking to alleviate tariff pressures through trade negotiations, aiming to lock in a 10% tariff rate before the August 1 deadline [4][8]. - Reports indicate that the EU is close to reaching a preliminary trade agreement with the U.S. to secure a 10% tariff rate, with no indication of increased tariffs for the EU [9]. Group 4: Economic Performance - In the first quarter, Germany's GDP grew by 0.4%, surpassing expectations, partly due to exporters increasing shipments before U.S. tariffs took effect [7]. - Recent data showed an unexpected rise in Germany's industrial output in May, supporting hopes for the economy to recover from years of stagnation [7].

Report Investment Ratings - **Bullish**: Palm oil (long - term) [1] - **Bearish**: Copper, Aluminum, Alumina, Zinc, Iron ore (short - term), Crude oil, Fuel oil, Asphalt, BR rubber, PTA, Ethylene glycol, Logs, Crude oil, Fuel oil, Bitumen, Shanghai stocks, BR rubber, PTA, Ethylene glycol, Short fiber, Styrene, Cotton (domestic, long - term), Corn (near - term), Soybean (far - month C01) [1] - **Neutral (Oscillating)**: Stock index, Treasury bond, Gold, Silver, Nickel, Stainless steel, Steel, Coke, Coking coal, Coke breeze, Rapeseed oil, Cotton (domestic, short - term), Sugar, Pulp, Live pigs, PE, PVC, Caustic soda, LPG, Container shipping secondary line [1] Core Views The report provides trend judgments and logical analyses for various commodities in different sectors. Market conditions are influenced by multiple factors such as macroeconomic data (e.g., US non - farm payrolls), geopolitical situations (e.g., Middle East tensions), supply - demand relationships, and policy changes. Different commodities show different trends, including upward, downward, and oscillating movements, and investors are advised to pay attention to relevant factors for each commodity [1]. Summary by Industry Macroeconomic and Financial - **Stock Index**: In the short term, market trading volume gradually shrinks slightly, and with mediocre domestic and international positive factors, there is resistance to upward breakthrough, and it may show an oscillating pattern. Follow - up attention should be paid to macro - incremental information for direction guidance [1] - **Treasury Bond**: Asset shortage and weak economy are beneficial to bond futures, but the central bank has recently warned of interest - rate risks, suppressing the upward space [1] - **Precious Metals (Gold and Silver)**: Market uncertainties remain. Gold and silver prices are expected to oscillate mainly. Attention should be paid to tariff developments [1] Non - ferrous Metals - **Base Metals**: Due to factors such as the cooling of the Fed's interest - rate cut expectations, high prices suppressing downstream demand, and inventory changes, copper, aluminum, alumina, zinc, etc., have downward risks. Nickel prices oscillate, and attention should be paid to supply and macro - changes [1] - **Stainless Steel**: After an oscillating rebound, the sustainability needs to be observed. Attention should be paid to raw material changes and actual steel - mill production [1] - **Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon**: Industrial silicon has a downward risk, and polysilicon is affected by supply - side reform expectations and market sentiment [1] - **Lithium Hydroxide**: Supply has not been reduced, downstream replenishment is mainly by traders, and there is capital gaming. The price oscillates [1] Ferrous Metals - **Steel and Related Products**: Macro uncertainties remain. With raw material price weakening, social inventory slightly declining, and steel - mill production reduction news boosting confidence, the market situation is complex. The sustainability of stainless - steel rebound needs to be observed [1] Agricultural Products - **Oils and Fats**: OPEC +'s unexpected production increase causes oils to follow the decline of crude oil. In the long term, international oil demand increases, and the far - month contracts of palm oil are bullish [1] - **Cotton**: In the short term, there are disturbances such as trade negotiations and weather premiums. In the long term, macro uncertainties are strong. Domestic cotton prices are expected to oscillate weakly [1] - **Sugar**: Brazil's sugar production is expected to reach a record high. If crude oil continues to be weak, it may affect Brazil's sugar - making ratio and production [1] - **Corn and Soybeans**: Corn is affected by policy - based grain releases and price differences. Soybeans have different trends for near - and far - month contracts, depending on factors such as supply - demand and trade policies [1] - **Pulp and Logs**: Pulp has low valuation and macro - positive factors. Logs are in the off - season, and supply decline is limited [1] - **Live Pigs**: With the continuous repair of pig inventory, the market shows a certain stability [1] Energy and Chemicals - **Crude Oil and Related Products**: Due to the cooling of the Middle East geopolitical situation and OPEC +'s unexpected production increase, crude oil, fuel oil, etc., have downward risks [1] - **Petrochemical Products**: PTA, ethylene glycol, etc., are affected by factors such as cost, supply - demand, and production - reduction expectations [1] - **Synthetic Rubber**: BR rubber is under pressure due to factors such as OPEC's production increase and high basis [1] - **Plastics and Chemicals**: PE, PVC, caustic soda, etc., show different trends due to factors such as maintenance, demand, and market sentiment [1] - **LPG**: Affected by factors such as price cuts, production increases, and seasonal demand, it has downward space [1] Other - **Container Shipping**: It is expected that the freight rate will reach its peak in mid - July and show an arc - top trend from July to August. The subsequent shipping capacity is relatively sufficient [1]