Core Viewpoint - Japan is leveraging a cooperation proposal related to China in exchange for concessions on tariffs during the ongoing US-Japan trade negotiations, which have been stalled since the implementation of strict tariff policies by the Trump administration [1][3]. Group 1: Trade Negotiations - Japan's chief trade negotiator, Akizawa Ryo, is participating in the fifth round of tariff negotiations with the US, aiming to address the approximately $60 billion trade deficit between the two countries [1]. - The US has maintained a hardline stance on tariffs, particularly in the automotive and steel sectors, insisting on measures to eliminate the trade deficit [1][3]. - Japan's willingness to compromise has shifted due to changing international circumstances, indicating a more assertive negotiation strategy [1][3]. Group 2: Cooperation Proposals - Japan's cooperation proposal includes leveraging its advantages in rare earth processing and recycling to assist the US in utilizing globally sourced rare earth materials, as well as exploring collaboration in graphite and gallium [1]. - In the semiconductor sector, Japan plans to purchase billions of dollars' worth of semiconductor products from US companies like Nvidia and is considering assistance in producing materials needed for chip manufacturing [1][3]. Group 3: Energy and Shipbuilding - Japan is considering increasing imports of US liquefied natural gas and has proposed support for new projects in Alaska and increased production in Louisiana and Texas [3]. - In shipbuilding, Japan aims to collaborate with the US to build icebreakers, taking into account the influence of China [3]. Group 4: Internal US Dynamics - The US negotiation team is experiencing significant internal divisions, with differing views among key officials, complicating the negotiation process for Japan [3]. - The lack of coordination and information sharing among US officials has led to repeated discussions and delays in the negotiation process [3]. Group 5: Japan's Strategic Position - Japan holds significant leverage with its holdings of US Treasury bonds, and any large-scale sell-off could exert substantial pressure on the US economy [5]. - The dynamics of US-China relations have provided Japan with insights and confidence to adopt a firmer negotiating stance [5]. Group 6: International Implications - The outcome of the US-Japan trade negotiations will not only impact bilateral economic relations but also have broader implications for regional and global economic structures [5][7]. - Japan's strategy must consider the potential backlash from China if its cooperation proposals adversely affect Chinese interests, highlighting the risks involved in the negotiations [5][7].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The recent rebound in coal and coking prices was mainly driven by news such as a 20% resource - tax increase on Mongolian coal exports, sudden production cuts in Shanxi, and capacity clearance due to the new Mineral Resources Law. However, the authenticity of these news has been gradually disproven. After the emotional release, the market will return to being fundamentally driven. Since the spot prices have not significantly increased, the off - season pressure will lead to the intervention of industrial hedging funds, which will resist the continuous rise of prices. The current futures price rebound is regarded as a basis - narrowing market. Its sustainability depends on the cooperation of spot prices and changes in market expectations of the supply - side production capacity [2][22] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Review - **Futures Market**: Last week, the opening price of the main coking coal contract JM2509 was 726.0 yuan/ton, with a high of 796.0 yuan/ton, a low of 709.0 yuan/ton, and a closing price of 778.5 yuan/ton, a fluctuation of 37.5 yuan/ton compared to the previous week's settlement price. The trading volume was 4,897,442.0 lots, and the open interest was 556,894.0 lots. The opening price of the main coke contract J2509 was 1,311.0 yuan/ton, with a high of 1,379.0 yuan/ton, a low of 1,280.5 yuan/ton, and a closing price of 1,350.5 yuan/ton, a fluctuation of 42.0 yuan/ton compared to the previous week's settlement price. The trading volume was 139,922.0 lots, and the open interest was 53,370.0 lots [4] - **Basis Analysis**: The basis of S1.3 G75 main coking coal (Mongolian 5) in Shaheyi was 110 yuan/ton, and the basis of the main coke contract was - 22 yuan/ton [4] - **Spread Analysis**: The spread between the 2509 coke contract and the 2509 coking coal contract was 572.0 yuan/ton [4] 3.2 Domestic Spot Market - S1.3 G75 main coking coal (Shanxi coal) in Jiexiu was priced at 970 yuan/ton (unchanged); S1.3 G75 main coking coal (Mongolian 5) in Shaheyi was 889 yuan/ton (up 5 yuan/ton); S1.3 G75 main coking coal (Mongolian 3) in Shaheyi was 901 yuan/ton (down 5 yuan/ton) [5] 3.3 Port Information - **Inventory**: As of June 7, 2025, the total coal inventory at Qinhuangdao Port was 645.00 million tons, at Caofeidian Port was 565.00 million tons, at Jingtang Port was 826.80 million tons, and at Xingang of Guangzhou Port was 47.40 million tons [11] - **Quotations**: The ex - warehouse price of Shanxi main coking coal at Jingtang Port was 1290 yuan/ton, the ex - warehouse price of foreign - trade Australian main coking coal at Qingdao Port was 1205 yuan/ton, at Lianyungang Port was 1205 yuan/ton, at Rizhao Port was 1110 yuan/ton, and at Tianjin Port was 1195 yuan/ton [11] 3.4 Freight Information - As of June 6, 2025, the China Coastal Coal Freight Index (CBCFI) was 693.19, the Panamax Freight Index (BPI) was 1,246.00, the Capesize Freight Index (BCI) was 2,842.00, the Supramax Freight Index (BSI) was 933.00, and the Handysize Freight Index (BHSI) was 472.00 [13] 3.5 Coking Industry - **Coke Price Index**: The price of quasi - first - grade coke in Lvliang was 1040 yuan/ton (down 70 yuan/ton); in Tangshan, it was 1240 yuan/ton (down 70 yuan/ton); at Rizhao Port, it was 1200 yuan/ton (unchanged) [16] - **Coke Inventory**: This week, the coke inventory of 247 steel mills was 685.5 million tons, and the coke inventory of 230 independent coking plants was 67.06 million tons [18] 3.6 Technical Analysis - The coking coal JM2509 contract closed down last week, with a support level of 700 yuan/ton and a resistance level of 900 yuan/ton. The coke J2509 contract also closed down last week, with a support level of 1250 yuan/ton and a resistance level of 1400 yuan/ton [20] 3.7 Views and Operation Suggestions - **View**: The current futures price rebound is regarded as a basis - narrowing market, and its sustainability depends on the cooperation of spot prices and changes in market expectations of the supply - side production capacity [22] - **Operation Suggestion**: Adopt range - bound trading [23]

Core Viewpoint - The recent increase in oil prices marks the end of a four-month decline, with expectations for further increases in the near future, potentially leading domestic gasoline prices to exceed 7 yuan per liter [1][3]. Price Trends - The current pricing cycle for oil runs from June 4 to June 17, with the next adjustment scheduled for June 17 at 24:00 [3]. - As of June 8, the domestic oil price adjustment is on hold, with a reference increase of 0.05 to 0.06 yuan per liter for 92 and 95 octane gasoline anticipated due to a 1.72% change in crude oil prices [3][5]. Market Influences - The recent rise in international oil prices is supported by a strong U.S. employment report, which has bolstered expectations for a Federal Reserve interest rate cut, thus enhancing bullish sentiment in the oil market [5]. - Despite OPEC+ planning to increase production by 411,000 barrels per day in July, the onset of the summer energy consumption peak and ongoing trade negotiations between major economies have alleviated demand concerns [5][7]. - Geopolitical tensions, particularly the ongoing Russia-Ukraine conflict, have contributed to a risk-averse sentiment in the market, further supporting oil price increases [5]. Future Outlook - With nine days remaining until the next price adjustment, the potential for further increases in domestic oil prices remains high, especially if the Federal Reserve's rate cut expectations materialize [7]. - The upcoming price adjustment on June 17 is anticipated to be the fifth increase of the year, with 92 octane gasoline likely to return to the "7 yuan era" [7].

大类资产&海外事件&数据：中美第二轮贸易谈判将启，美国非农就业强于预期 海外市场多数上涨，美债利率大幅上行。 当周，海外多数上涨，纳指上涨2.2%，仅日经225下跌0.6%。 10Y美债收益率上行10bp至4.51%；美元指数下跌0.2%至99.2，离岸人民币小幅升值。WTI原油大涨6.2% 至64.6美元/桶，COMEX黄金上涨0.6%至3308.2美元/盎司。 中美将启动第二轮贸易谈判。 特朗普6月6日宣布，将于6月9日在伦敦与中方开启第二轮贸易谈判，或重 点讨论协议到期后的关税走廊及调整机制、关键矿产出口恢复等问题。美国谈判代表将包括财政部长贝 森特、商务部长卢特尼克、贸易代表格里尔。 5月美国非农就业强于预期，欧央行6月降息25BP。 美国5月非农新增就业13.9万人，市场预期12.6万人。 失业率维持于4.2%，但数据背后就业市场仍存在走弱迹象；5月美国ISM制造业PMI回落至48.5；欧央行6 月会议降息25BP，拉加德表示降息周期即将结束。 文 | 赵伟、陈达飞、李欣越 联系人 | 李欣越 摘要 风险提示 地缘政治冲突升级；美国经济放缓超预期；美联储超预期转"鹰" 报告正文 二、大类资产&海外事 ...

日本贸易谈判代表：敦促美方重新审视关税措施 金十数据6月7日讯，日本首席贸易谈判代表赤泽亮正表示，美国的关税对日本经济产生了重大影响。他 认为在与美国的贸易谈判中取得了进一步进展。赤泽亮正再次敦促美国重新考虑其关税措施。 ...

Report Industry Investment Ratings No specific industry investment ratings are provided in the report. Core Viewpoints - The market risk preference may continue to rise after the positive signal from the Sino-US presidential call, and the stock index has a clear upward trend in shock, but short - term upward breakthrough needs further accumulation of capital and policy benefits [1]. - The central bank's intention to protect liquidity is clear, the short - end expectation of bonds has improved, but the long - end is weak, and the bond market is in an interval shock [1]. - Gold is affected by short - term risk aversion and long - term favorable factors yet to ferment, showing a shock - strong trend; silver is supported by the high gold - silver ratio [4]. - Copper price is affected by the macro - environment, with supply constraints and cautious demand expectations, and is in an interval shock [4]. - Alumina price is under pressure due to the resumption of production capacity and sufficient ore inventory [4]. - Nickel price is in an interval shock due to the balance between supply recovery and resource - country policy support [4]. - Lithium price is in a weak shock due to oversupply [6]. - Metal silicon industry is expected to accumulate inventory, and the short - term rebound height is limited [6]. - The black building materials sector is affected by macro - events and fundamentals, with prices in shock, and some varieties can hold corresponding option positions [6]. - Coal and coke prices are at the bottom and in shock due to oversupply and weak demand [9]. - Soda ash and float glass are in a shock - weak situation due to oversupply and lack of demand improvement [9]. - Oil price is in a weak shock with a downward center of gravity due to OPEC+ production increase and inventory changes [9]. - PTA supply increases and demand is weak, showing a weak shock trend [11]. - Methanol price may fall due to seasonal demand and import changes [11]. - Polyolefin price is in a downward trend due to supply increase and demand decline [11]. - Cotton price is in an interval shock due to good supply prospects and weak demand [11]. - Rubber price is in a weak shock due to weak demand and seasonal production increase [13]. Summary by Categories Stock Index - The A - share market has been strengthening this week, with trading volume increasing. The stock index is in a shock - upward trend, but short - term breakthrough needs more favorable factors [1]. Treasury Bond - The performance of treasury bonds was differentiated yesterday, with the long - end weak and the short - end strong. The central bank's operation affects market expectations, and the bond market is in an interval shock [1]. Precious Metals - Gold is affected by short - term risk aversion and long - term favorable factors yet to ferment, showing a shock - strong trend. Silver is supported by the high gold - silver ratio, and one can hold short - position out - of - the - money put options [4]. Non - ferrous Metals - **Copper**: Affected by the macro - environment, with supply constraints and cautious demand expectations, copper price is in an interval shock [4]. - **Aluminum and Alumina**: Alumina price is under pressure due to the resumption of production capacity and sufficient ore inventory. Aluminum has supply constraints but demand uncertainty [4]. - **Nickel**: Nickel price is in an interval shock due to the balance between supply recovery and resource - country policy support [4]. Energy and Chemicals - **Lithium**: Lithium price is in a weak shock due to oversupply [6]. - **Metal Silicon**: The metal silicon industry is expected to accumulate inventory, and the short - term rebound height is limited [6]. - **Crude Oil**: Oil price is in a weak shock with a downward center of gravity due to OPEC+ production increase and inventory changes [9]. - **PTA**: PTA supply increases and demand is weak, showing a weak shock trend [11]. - **Methanol**: Methanol price may fall due to seasonal demand and import changes [11]. - **Polyolefin**: Polyolefin price is in a downward trend due to supply increase and demand decline [11]. Black Building Materials - **Steel and Ore**: The black building materials sector is affected by macro - events and fundamentals, with prices in shock. Some varieties can hold corresponding option positions [6]. - **Coal and Coke**: Coal and coke prices are at the bottom and in shock due to oversupply and weak demand [9]. - **Soda Ash and Float Glass**: Soda ash and float glass are in a shock - weak situation due to oversupply and lack of demand improvement [9]. Agricultural Products - **Cotton**: Cotton price is in an interval shock due to good supply prospects and weak demand [11]. - **Rubber**: Rubber price is in a weak shock due to weak demand and seasonal production increase [13].

Group 1 - The European Union's agricultural commissioner stated that the EU will not lower food safety standards in trade negotiations with the United States [1]

自从特朗普大搞关税政策以来，不少国家甚至连美国自身都受到了影响。 哪里有压迫，哪里就有反抗。 面对这种行为，中方坚决反制。 而不少国家对美国的加税政策也拒不接受，对美国强硬的国家越来越多。 当特朗普大刀阔斧地推出对中国和其他国家加征关税时，他无疑高估了自己的底气。 刚开始，似乎他真的做到了"以关税制胜"，尤其是在贸易战的初期； 美国的经济似乎并未受到太大冲击，反而不少国家都试图在这种高压政策下找到妥协的空间，可随之而来的是一场全球性的反击。 中国作为全球制造业中心，凭借着庞大的市场和无可替代的供应链优势，迅速做出了反制。 这一反制不仅仅是一个经济层面的回击，更在国际政治舞台上打响了声势，让其他国家纷纷警觉。 中美贸易谈判中的一系列变化，正是其他国家的转折点，许多国家开始放慢与美国的谈判进程，拒绝在美国的压力下匆忙做出妥协。 更令特朗普意外的是，越来越多的国家开始以中国的反制措施为蓝本，改变了自己对美国的态度。 中美之间的冲突，反而成了全球其他国家的"活教材"，教会了它们如何面对美国的关税压迫，如何在全球博弈中争取更多话语权。 | 北京时间 5月12日 | | | --- | --- | | 中美联合声明 | ...

智通财经6月6日电，前日本财务省财务官古泽满宏表示，在与美国的贸易谈判中，日本是否真的可以利 用其持有的巨额美债作为讨价还价的工具令人怀疑。 ...

贸易不确定性升温， 汇率节奏未变 华泰期货研究院 2025年06月06日 蔡劭立 F3063489 Z0014617 联系人： 朱思谋 F03142856 — 量价和政策信号— 数据来源： Wind 华泰期货研究院 4 2 【量价观察】美元兑人民币期权隐含波动率下行 ◆3个月的美元兑人民币期权隐含波动率曲线显示Call端波动率与Put端持平。 ◆ 美元兑人民币期权波动率持续下行，市场对美元兑人民币未来波动性的预期减弱。 美元兑人民币期权隐含波动率 Delta为5的美元兑人民币3个月期权隐含波动率 数据来源： 3 Bloomberg Wind 华泰期货研究院 3 4 5 6 7 8 3M 2025/06/05 3M 2025/03/28 3M 2024/12/31 0 2 4 6 8 10 12 2023-04 2023-10 2024-04 2024-10 2025-04 【量价观察】期限结构 20250604（%） 20250528（%） 20250507（%） (1.5) (1.0) (0.5) 0.0 0.5 1.0 1.5 2.0 2.5 3.0 3.5 4.0 一月 三月 六月 一年 本周新交所美元 ...