Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article indicates that the futures market for coke and coking coal is experiencing fluctuations, with coke futures showing a slight decline and coking coal futures also facing downward pressure, but with potential for recovery in the future [1] - As of June 19, the main contract for coke closed at 1374 yuan/ton, with a daily decline of 0.11%, and the main contract open interest was 50,300 lots, down by 1,539 lots from the previous session [1] - The spot market price for coking coal at Ganqimaodu port was reported at 865.0 yuan/ton, a week-on-week decrease of 2.8%, with the futures warehouse receipt cost estimated at 834 yuan/ton [1] Group 2 - The article notes that in June, coking coal supply is expected to contract, but production is likely to recover after the safety month, indicating a potential shift in market dynamics [1] - The steel production data shows that China's crude steel output in May 2025 is projected to be 86.54 million tons, a year-on-year decrease of 6.9%, with cumulative production from January to May at 431.63 million tons, down 1.7% year-on-year [1] - The article highlights that the geopolitical situation, including the Israel-Palestine conflict and the easing of China-US trade tensions, has positively influenced market sentiment, although the long-term oversupply of coking coal remains a concern [1]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - The steel price is mainly driven by raw materials, and although it is boosted by the short - term rebound of coking coal, there is limited room for a substantial increase in coking coal due to the overall supply - demand imbalance in the raw material market and the approaching traditional off - season [3]. - The iron ore price is expected to rebound along with industrial products, but the rebound amplitude is smaller than that of coking coal, and the trend may not be strong, with decreasing volatility [21]. - Coking coal has a short - term rebound demand, but the supply - demand pattern remains loose. Coke has limited short - term supply - demand contradictions, but lacks the conditions for bottom - fishing [3][36]. - The negative impact of high inventory on ferroalloys is weakening, but the cost side is bearish. It is not recommended to bottom - fish before coal prices stabilize [54]. - The soda ash market is in a long - term oversupply expectation, and the inventory is at a historical high. The further decline of the disc price requires price cuts by alkali plants or rapid inventory accumulation [69][70]. - The glass market has weak short - term fundamentals and cost support. Although the valuation is relatively low, it is necessary to wait for the realization of spot price cut expectations [94]. Summary by Related Catalogs Steel - **Price Influencing Factors**: The price of steel is mainly affected by raw materials. The short - term rebound of coking coal boosts steel prices, but in the traditional off - season with a tendency of decreasing hot metal and an overall oversupply of raw materials, coking coal lacks a substantial upward driving force [3]. - **Price Data**: On June 5, 2025, the closing prices of rebar 01, 05, and 10 contracts were 2951, 2952, and 2959 respectively, showing different changes compared with the previous day. The closing prices of hot - rolled coil 01, 05, and 10 contracts were 3075, 3072, and 3077 respectively [4]. Iron Ore - **Market Situation**: Market sentiment has slightly recovered. The fundamentals of iron ore have weakened month - on - month, with increased shipments and a possible shift from de - stocking to slight inventory accumulation. The iron ore price is expected to rebound with industrial products, but the amplitude is smaller than that of coking coal [21]. - **Price and Fundamental Data**: On June 5, 2025, the closing prices of iron ore 01, 05, and 09 contracts were 665, 646.5, and 701 respectively. The daily average hot metal output in the week of May 30, 2025, was 241.91, showing a week - on - week decrease [22][30]. Coking Coal and Coke - **Coking Coal**: Some mines have reduced production, but large - scale production cuts have not occurred. The downstream coking profit is damaged, and the raw material replenishment willingness is poor. The import window is expected to be difficult to open, and the price of Mongolian 5 raw coal has been frequently declining [36]. - **Coke**: Steel mills in Tangshan have initiated a third - round price cut. The short - term supply - demand contradiction of coke is not significant, but the cost support is loose, and it is not suitable for bottom - fishing [36]. - **Price Data**: On June 5, 2025, the coking coal warehouse receipt cost (Tangshan Mongolian 5) was 813, and the coking coal main contract basis (Tangshan Mongolian 5) was 56. The coke warehouse receipt cost (Rizhao Port) was 1315, and the coke main contract basis (Rizhao Port) was - 27 [37]. Ferroalloys - **Market Situation**: The negative impact of high inventory on ferroalloys is gradually weakening, and the supply pressure on the supply side is small. However, the cost side is bearish, and it is not recommended to bottom - fish before coal prices stabilize [54]. - **Price Data**: On June 5, 2025, the silicon - iron basis in Ningxia was 284, and the silicon - manganese basis in Inner Mongolia was 268 [58][59]. Soda Ash - **Market Situation**: The soda ash production has recovered, and the overall maintenance volume from May to June is lower than expected. The market is in a long - term oversupply expectation, and the inventory is at a historical high. The demand is stable, and the photovoltaic sector tends to return to an oversupply pattern [69][70]. - **Price Data**: On June 5, 2025, the prices of soda ash 05, 09, and 01 contracts were 1236, 1203, and 1196 respectively, showing different degrees of decline compared with the previous day [71]. Glass - **Market Situation**: The spot market of glass remains weak, and there is still an expectation of price cuts. The daily melting volume fluctuates slightly. The cumulative apparent demand has declined by nearly 10%. The disc price is approaching the level of full - industry chain losses, and it is necessary to wait for the realization of spot price cut expectations [94]. - **Price Data**: On June 5, 2025, the prices of glass 05, 09, and 01 contracts were 1075, 963, and 1018 respectively, showing different degrees of decline compared with the previous day [95].