1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Though supply continues to shrink, negative feedback on the demand side is gradually emerging. The ongoing geopolitical conflict in the Middle East disturbs the market, intensifying concerns about the supply of olefin raw materials such as naphtha and propane. The contraction of the supply side supports the rise in olefin prices. For PE, with reduced domestic refinery operations and a weak import outlook, the supply will continue to tighten. Downstream demand is in the peak spring - plowing season, but high - priced raw materials make downstream profits under pressure, and demand follows cautiously. For PP, the supply continues to tighten due to refinery cut - backs and PDH device maintenance. The opening of the export window drives up export demand, but downstream procurement is cautious. In the short term, both PE and PP prices are supported by supply contraction and strong raw material support before the Strait of Hormuz is open for navigation [3][4]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market News and Important Data - **Price and Basis**: The closing price of the L main contract is 8,804 yuan/ton (-64), and that of the PP main contract is 9,269 yuan/ton (-44). LL North China spot is 8,800 yuan/ton (+300), LL East China spot is 8,930 yuan/ton (+430), and PP East China spot is 9,350 yuan/ton (+350). LL North China basis is -4 yuan/ton (+364), LL East China basis is 126 yuan/ton (+494), and PP East China basis is 81 yuan/ton (+394) [1]. - **Upstream Supply**: PE operating rate is 76.2% (-3.8%), and PP operating rate is 70.0% (-0.5%) [1]. - **Production Profit**: PE oil - based production profit is -1,611.6 yuan/ton (+88.3), PP oil - based production profit is -1,351.6 yuan/ton (+88.3), and PDH - based PP production profit is -3,121.1 yuan/ton (-113.1) [1]. - **Import and Export**: LL import profit is -929.2 yuan/ton (+424.6), PP import profit is -1,344.4 yuan/ton (-150.0), and PP export profit is 299.2 US dollars/ton (+8.4) [1]. - **Downstream Demand**: PE downstream agricultural film operating rate is 38.9% (+3.4%), PE downstream packaging film operating rate is 47.2% (+1.7%), PP downstream plastic weaving operating rate is 41.1% (+0.9%), and PP downstream BOPP film operating rate is 63.4% (+1.5%) [2]. 3.2 Market Analysis - **PE**: The ongoing Middle - East geopolitical conflict affects the supply of olefin raw materials. Domestic refineries are in a phase of concentrated production cuts, and planned maintenance of PE devices from late March to April will increase. The supply will continue to tighten. Downstream demand is in the peak spring - plowing season, but high - priced raw materials make downstream profits under pressure, and the inventory reduction channel cannot be continuously opened. Before the actual withdrawal or negotiation of the US and Israel, PE prices are still supported by supply contraction [3]. - **PP**: Uncertainty in the geopolitical conflict remains, and concerns about the supply of raw materials such as crude oil and propane persist. Domestic refineries' concentrated production cuts continue, and PDH device maintenance intensifies. The supply will continue to tighten. Downstream demand is in seasonal recovery, but high - priced PP squeezes downstream profits, and downstream procurement is cautious. The opening of the export window drives up export demand. Before the Strait of Hormuz is open for navigation, PP prices are strongly supported [4]. 3.3 Strategy - **Unilateral**: Cautiously go long on LLDPE and PP for hedging. - **Inter - period**: No strategy. - **Cross - variety**: Cautiously shrink the spread of LL05 - PP05 when it is high [5].

Group 1: Report Information - Report Name: Polyolefin Daily Report [1] - Date: March 31, 2026 [2] - Research Team: Energy and Chemical Research Team [4] Group 2: Market Quotes - Futures Market Quotes: Plastic 2701 opened at 8521 yuan/ton, closed at 8313 yuan/ton with a decline of 67 yuan/ton (-0.80%); Plastic 2605 opened at 9241 yuan/ton, closed at 8804 yuan/ton with an increase of 3 yuan/ton (0.03%); Plastic 2609 opened at 8900 yuan/ton, closed at 8684 yuan/ton with an increase of 3 yuan/ton (0.03%); PP2701 opened at 8640 yuan/ton, closed at 8459 yuan/ton with a decline of 22 yuan/ton (-0.26%); PP2605 opened at 9500 yuan/ton, closed at 9269 yuan/ton with an increase of 40 yuan/ton (0.43%); PP2609 opened at 9130 yuan/ton, closed at 8931 yuan/ton with an increase of 32 yuan/ton (0.36%) [5] Group 3: Market Review and Outlook - Market Performance: L2605 opened higher and moved downward during the session, closing at 8804 yuan/ton, up 3 yuan/ton (0.03%), with a trading volume of 890,000 lots and a decrease in positions by 2555 to 324,187 lots. PP2605 closed at 9269 yuan/ton, up 40 yuan/ton (0.43%), with a decrease in positions by 19,730 to 337,600 lots [6] - Supply Situation: The Middle - East conflict led to naphtha shortage, causing cracking units in Japan and South Korea to reduce their loads. Multiple PEPP units in North and Northeast China also reduced their loads. With the new capacity release in the first half of the year in a window period, the subsequent supply contraction is expected to exceed expectations. In addition, Southeast and South Asian regions are seeking alternative sources to the Middle - East, and the domestic exports in March may reach a new high, further tightening the domestic supply [6] - Demand Situation: The overall demand is weak. Although the operating rate of downstream enterprises has increased month - on - month, the transmission of product prices to the end - market is not smooth, squeezing the enterprise profits. Some enterprises are forced to sell their raw material inventories to recover funds. High raw material prices continue to suppress the willingness of end - customers to accept orders, and downstream procurement is cautious, mainly in a wait - and - see mode [6] - Market Outlook: The polyolefin market is driven by strong cost support and substantial supply contraction, maintaining a strong and volatile upward trend. At present, the fundamental contradictions are not yet intense, and the market is significantly affected by geopolitical situations and crude oil prices [6] Group 4: Industry News - Inventory Level: On March 30, 2026, the inventory level of major producers was 860,000 tons, an increase of 90,000 tons (11.69%) compared with the previous working day. The inventory in the same period last year was 730,000 tons [7] - Market Prices: PE market prices rose. The LLDPE prices in North China were in the range of 8700 - 9800 yuan/ton, in East China 8850 - 9700 yuan/ton, and in South China 9050 - 9800 yuan/ton. PP market prices rose significantly. The mainstream quotes for drawn PP in North China were 9150 - 9300 yuan/ton, in East China 9200 - 9400 yuan/ton, and in South China 9500 - 9650 yuan/ton [7] Group 5: Data Overview - Figures: The report includes figures such as L basis, PP basis, L - PP spread, crude oil futures main contract settlement price, two - oil inventories, and two - oil inventory year - on - year increase or decrease [9][17][18]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core View of the Report - The polypropylene market this week showed an oscillating and repeated trend, with prices trending strongly but with increased volatility. Affected by relevant negotiation news, prices had a phased decline, but due to strong support from the supply side, they remained at a relatively high level. The supply side is contracting, with device maintenance and restarts co - existing, and the shortage of raw materials and subsequent maintenance expectations further strengthen the supply contraction logic. The demand side is generally in a recovery state, with some sectors seeing a recovery in demand, but some industries still have weak demand, dragging down the overall recovery rhythm. In the short term, it presents an oscillating and slightly strong pattern [3][6]. 3. Summary by Directory Price Review - This week, the polypropylene price oscillated repeatedly. As of the 26th, the national average price of drawn wire was 9,028 yuan/ton, a rise of 181 yuan/ton from last week, with a growth rate of 2.05%. Frequent changes in the news led to increased volatility in the market. Due to the geopolitical conflict not being alleviated, the overall trend was strong. During the week, due to news of the US - Iran negotiation, the crude oil and polypropylene market declined, but the supply side still provided support, and the price was still at a high level compared to before the conflict. The weekly fluctuation range was 8,650 - 9,300 yuan/ton [3]. Supply - This week, the domestic polypropylene production was 722,700 tons, a decrease of 5,200 tons from last week, a decline of 0.71%, and a decrease of 9,300 tons compared to the same period last year, a decline of 1.27%. During the week, the first phase of Juzhengyuan and the second line of Jinneng resumed operation, but some devices such as Zhongsha, Zhongying, Zheshihua, Zhenhai, Maoming, and Baofeng stopped. The average capacity utilization rate of polypropylene this week was 69.99%, a 0.51% decrease from the previous week. Next week, it is expected that some devices such as the second line of Guangdong Petrochemical, Zhong'an United, Liaoyang Petrochemical, and the third line of Zhenhai Refining and Chemical will have maintenance plans, and Zhongsha Tianjin is expected to restart. Currently, although the geopolitical situation has not further escalated, the problem of raw material supply shortage still exists, and the maintenance of oil - based polypropylene continues to increase [3]. Demand - The average operating rate of the polypropylene downstream industry is generally on the rise. Benefiting from the peak season support of "Golden March and Silver April" and the approaching Tomb - sweeping Festival, the terminal demand has entered a concentrated recovery period. The orderly development of spring plowing has driven the sharp increase in the demand for fertilizer, seed packaging, and agricultural plastic wrap, which in turn has promoted the increase in the demand for agricultural woven bags. The recovery of packaging demand in the food, daily chemical, express logistics and other fields has also helped the demand and operating rate of the BOPP and CPP industries to rise. However, the demand of some industries is still weak, dragging down the overall recovery rhythm. The PP non - woven fabric industry is affected by the warming weather, and the demand for diapers and medical disposable supplies has slowed down. The modified PP industry is in the off - season, and the demand related to automobiles and home appliances is limited [4]. 利好 and 利空 - **利好**: Geopolitical factors support costs as the continuous escalation of the geopolitical conflict in the Middle East, the intensification of the US - Iran confrontation, the attack on Iranian gas fields, and the tense situation in the Strait of Hormuz have pushed up international crude oil prices, providing strong cost support for PP. There is a strong expectation of supply contraction as some domestic PP devices are under maintenance, the expected maintenance loss in April is expected to further increase, coupled with the tightening of raw material supply in the Middle East, the downward pressure on the operation of PDH devices, and the reduction of domestic supply due to the export peak season. The downstream has marginal improvement and inventory reduction as the operating rate of the PP downstream has continued to rise this week, and the inventory has shown a phased reduction, with the overall inventory pressure being controllable [5]. - **利空**: The spot demand is weak, and the high - price suppression effect is significant. Although the downstream operating rate has increased, the rapid rise in PP prices has compressed downstream profits, and downstream enterprises have limited acceptance of high - price sources, resulting in weak spot transactions, showing a divergence pattern of "violent futures fluctuations and weak spot follow - up". There is an expectation of some device restarts. Some PDH devices have restart plans this week. If the devices restart smoothly, it will relieve the supply shortage to some extent, suppress prices to a certain degree, and the substitution effect of recycled materials still exists, diverting part of the demand for primary PP and restricting the upward price space [5]. 后市展望 - In the short term, the polypropylene market is affected by multiple factors and presents an oscillating and slightly strong pattern [6].

Report Industry Investment Ratings - L: ★★, Bullish [1] - PP: ★★, Bullish [1] - PVC: ★★, Bullish [1] - PX/PTA: ★, Bullish [4] - Ethylene Glycol: ★★, Bullish [5] - Methanol: ★★, Bullish [6] - Urea: ★, Cautiously Bullish [6] - Caustic Soda: ★, Sideways [1] Core Views - Supply contraction and cost support drive the prices of L, PP, PVC, and ethylene glycol to remain bullish. The prices of PX/PTA and methanol are expected to be bullish due to cost support and improved fundamentals. Urea prices are cautiously bullish due to the large domestic and foreign price difference and the supply - demand situation. Caustic soda prices are expected to move sideways [1][4][5][6]. Summaries by Variety L - **Core View**: Bullish [1] - **Main Logic**: Supply contraction intensifies, and the cost - end ethylene remains strong. New domestic plant overhauls increase the parking ratio to 15%, and the planned overhaul volume in March increases. Geopolitical conflicts raise the price center, and the market is expected to remain bullish before the raw material shortage is resolved [1][11] - **Market Data**: L05 closing price is 8818 yuan/ton, down 1.1% from the previous day; the main contract basis is - 728 yuan/ton, down 26.4% [9] PP - **Core View**: Bullish [1] - **Main Logic**: PDH profit continues to compress, and supply has room for contraction. The attack on the South Pars gas field increases the expectation of PG supply reduction, and the cost - end strongly supports PP. The current parking ratio is at a high of 21%, the supply - demand pattern is improving, and the market is expected to remain bullish before the raw material shortage is alleviated [1][14] - **Market Data**: PP05 closing price is 9019 yuan/ton, down 1.5% from the previous day; the main contract basis is - 259 yuan/ton, up 14.5% [12] PVC - **Core View**: Bullish [1] - **Main Logic**: Cost support is strong, and the reduction of ethylene - based production drives inventory depletion. Geopolitical conflicts exacerbate the expectation of load reduction in global ethylene - based PVC plants. Some domestic ethylene - based plants have started to reduce loads. The market is expected to be bullish before the raw material shortage is resolved [1][18] - **Market Data**: V05 closing price is 5875 yuan/ton, up 0.3% from the previous day; the main contract basis is - 205 yuan/ton, down 28.1% [16] PX/PTA - **Core View**: Bullish [4] - **Main Logic**: Geopolitical conflicts continue, and the valuation is relatively high. The supply side sees domestic plant load reduction, and the downstream polyester start - up load increases weakly. The fundamentals of upstream PX continue to improve, and the market is expected to remain bullish in the short term. Pay attention to geopolitical changes [4][20] - **Market Data**: TA05 closing price is 6070 yuan/ton, up 250 yuan from the previous day; PTA spot processing fee is 317.8 yuan/ton [19] Ethylene Glycol - **Core View**: Bullish [5] - **Main Logic**: Cost increases and domestic and foreign plant load reduction. The import reduction expectation is expected to be fulfilled, and the port pressure is expected to ease. The supply - demand situation is expected to improve in March - April [5][24] - **Market Data**: The overall ethylene glycol start - up load is 66.45% (down 0.32pct from the previous period) [24] Methanol - **Core View**: Bullish [6] - **Main Logic**: Geopolitical games dominate the market, and the fundamentals are expected to improve. The domestic methanol load remains high, and the overseas plant load is low. The import is expected to decrease in March - April. The demand side is weakly stable, and the port inventory is accelerating depletion [6][28] - **Market Data**: The main methanol contract is at a nearly one - year high, and the basis and monthly spread are weakening [28] Urea - **Core View**: Cautiously Bullish [6] - **Main Logic**: The domestic and foreign price difference of urea is large, but exports are difficult to liberalize before the end of the domestic spring plowing peak. Supply has declined slightly but remains at a high level. Demand has recovered, and the factory inventory is continuously decreasing. The price is restricted by policies [6][31] - **Market Data**: Urea production is 21.04 tons per day, and the comprehensive profit is 188.12 yuan/ton [30] Caustic Soda - **Core View**: Sideways [1] - **Main Logic**: The overhaul intensity increases, and the factory inventory declines from a high level. Geopolitical conflicts in the Middle East increase the expectation of load reduction in ethylene - based chlor - alkali integrated plants at home and abroad. Pay attention to the spring overhaul progress and export order volume changes [1][36] - **Market Data**: SH05 closing price is 2544 yuan/ton, up 3.2% from the previous day; the main contract basis is - 391 yuan/ton, down 22.9% [35]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content Core Viewpoints - For LLDPE, the cracking supply is shrinking and cost transmission is poor. For PP, the supply is limited, exports are favorable, and the risk - free window for futures and spot has opened [1]. - Geopolitical situation is escalating, affecting the shipping in the Strait of Hormuz, which is expected to strengthen raw materials like naphtha, raising the cost of PE. The demand for mulch film after the festival is in line with the season, and the packaging film production has recovered, but cost transmission takes time. For PP, C3 is affected by supply disruptions from Saudi Arabia and Iran, with strong cost support, and PDH maintenance is still high [2]. - The supply - demand game for PP has intensified. The downstream has resumed work intensively, and the demand has improved month - on - month. The PDH profit remains at a low level, and multiple PDH units in South China are still under maintenance. Attention should be paid to the marginal changes of cracking and PDH units [3]. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs Fundamental Tracking - **LLDPE (L2605)**: The closing price yesterday was 8818, with a daily decline of 1.10%. The trading volume was 1103490, and the open interest decreased by 20434. The 05 - contract basis was - 418 (compared to - 516 the previous day), and the 05 - 09 contract spread was 214 (compared to 235 the previous day). The spot prices in North, East, and South China were 8400, 8500, and 8600 yuan/ton respectively, with the South China price dropping from 8700 yuan/ton the previous day [1]. - **PP (PP2605)**: The closing price yesterday was 9019, with a daily decline of 1.52%. The trading volume was 1310098, and the open interest decreased by 29253. The 05 - contract basis was - 319 (compared to - 388 the previous day), and the 05 - 09 contract spread was 433 (compared to 513 the previous day). The spot prices in North, East, and South China were 8650, 8700, and 8850 yuan/ton respectively, with the North and East China prices dropping from 8750 and 8770 yuan/ton the previous day [1]. Spot News - For polyolefins, the PE external naphtha units have begun to give concentrated maintenance plans from late March to April, and the PE operating rate may drop below 70%. Zhongsha and Zhongying HD stopped production today. Zhenhai PP stopped production, and the PP operating rate dropped below 70% again. There are still many planned PDH maintenance, and the PDH profit has reached a new low. The basis has continued to weaken, cost transmission is poor, downstream terminals have not accepted the order price adjustment, manufacturers have lowered the ex - factory price, and the North China delivery window has continued to open [1]. Market Condition Analysis - **PE**: Geopolitical situation is escalating, shipping in the Strait of Hormuz is stagnant, and raw materials like naphtha are expected to be strong, raising the cost of PE. After the festival, the demand for mulch film is in line with the season, and the packaging film production has recovered, but cost transmission takes time. On the supply side, BASF Zhanjiang has achieved mass production, the planned maintenance and production reduction in March are increasing, the production of standard products has declined, and inventory has started to be depleted. Attention should be paid to the geopolitical persistence and cost transmission [2]. - **PP**: C3 is affected by supply disruptions from Saudi Arabia and Iran, with strong cost support, and PDH maintenance is still high. There is no new production before the 2605 contract, and the supply - demand game for existing suppliers has intensified. The downstream has resumed work intensively, and the demand has improved month - on - month. The PDH profit remains at a low level, multiple PDH units in South China are still under maintenance. Attention should be paid to the marginal changes of cracking and PDH units [2][3]. Trend Intensity - The trend intensity of LLDPE is 1, and the trend intensity of PP is 1 [3]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Due to the deterioration of the Middle - East situation, the energy and chemical sector has collectively soared. The polyolefin market maintains a pattern of strong fluctuations and upward - moving center of gravity driven by cost support and substantial supply contraction [6] 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Market Review and Outlook - The Middle - East situation has worsened, with Iran attacking multiple countries' energy facilities. Brent oil has exceeded $106. The energy and chemical sector has collectively soared, and polyolefins have gapped higher with a gain of over 4%. For example, L2605 closed at 8,916 yuan/ton, up 383 yuan/ton (4.49%), and PP2605 closed at 9,158 yuan/ton, up 428 yuan (4.90%). The US - Iran conflict is in a stalemate, the Strait of Hormuz remains blocked, and the energy supply chain is under pressure. Short - term oil prices are highly volatile, and upstream enterprises are reducing production. Supply will contract more than expected during the regular maintenance period from March to April. Downstream开工 has increased month - on - month, but the price transmission of downstream products is limited, squeezing profits and leading to a slowdown in raw material procurement [6] 3.2 Industry News - On March 19, 2026, the inventory level of major producers was 850,000 tons, a decrease of 15,000 tons from the previous working day, a decline of 1.73%. The inventory in the same period last year was 800,000 tons. PE market prices mostly rose, and PP market prices generally increased. The mainstream price of propylene in the Shandong market was 8,020 - 8,070 yuan/ton, up 20 yuan/ton from the previous working day [7] 3.3 Data Overview - The report presents multiple data charts, including L basis, PP basis, L - PP spread, crude oil futures main contract settlement price, two - oil inventory, and two - oil inventory year - on - year increase or decrease rate, with data sources from Wind and Zhuochuang Information [9][13][17]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints - After the overnight attack on Iranian energy facilities, the conflict shows an escalating trend. Crude oil and oil - chemical products are likely to rise and difficult to fall in the short term. The supply concerns of liquefied gas, methanol, and ethylene glycol are heating up again, and they are also likely to rise and difficult to fall before the conflict cools down [2]. - The supply contraction expectations of pure benzene, styrene, PX, PTA, PP, etc. are being realized, giving them short - term strong support, and the sustainability depends on the conflict progress [6][10][20]. - Synthetic rubber is supported by cost due to raw material reduction, and its price is likely to rise and difficult to fall [16]. - The supply of ethylene glycol is shrinking, making it bullish and difficult to fall in the short term [33]. - Plastic follows the cost - side drive of crude oil and the expectation of Asian refinery production cuts, and the end of the event means the peak of the market [35]. - The cost increase expectation and chemical sentiment resonance drive the soda ash market to strengthen in the first two weeks, but the over - supply situation restricts its upward space, and it is still likely to fall and difficult to rise in the medium term [40]. - PVC is likely to rise and difficult to fall in the short term due to supply disturbances caused by geopolitical factors [41]. Summary by Directory Crude Oil - Logic: The conflict between the US - Israel and Iran escalated overnight. After the attack on Iranian energy facilities, the probability of further escalation of the conflict increased. Although Trump expressed the hope of not launching more attacks on Iranian energy facilities, the market reaction was flat. The conflict shows no sign of cooling down, and crude oil and oil - chemical products are likely to rise and difficult to fall in the short term [3]. - Technical Analysis: The daily - level of crude oil shows a medium - term upward structure, and the hourly - level shows a short - term upward structure. Today, there is an increase in positions and a long positive line, and the short - term support below moves up to the 710 level. The strategy is to wait and see in the hourly cycle [4]. Benzene Ethylene - Logic: The load reduction of Asian petroleum benzene was obvious last week. The domestic pure benzene start - up rate dropped from 79% to 74% in two weeks, and the benzene ethylene start - up rate dropped by 2.3% to 71.79% in one week. The exports of benzene ethylene were not at a high level, and the port inventory started to decrease. The supply contraction expectation gave short - term strong support to pure benzene and benzene ethylene, and the sustainability depends on the conflict progress [6]. - Technical Analysis: The hourly - level of benzene ethylene shows a short - term upward structure. Today, it rose and then fell, and the short - term support below is at the 9200 level. The strategy is to wait and see in the hourly cycle [8]. Pure Benzene - Logic: Similar to benzene ethylene, the supply contraction expectation gave short - term strong support to pure benzene and benzene ethylene, and the sustainability depends on the conflict progress [10]. - Technical Analysis: The hourly - level of pure benzene shows a short - term downward structure. Today, it rose and then fell, and the short - term support below is at the 7270 level. The strategy is to wait and see in the hourly cycle [10]. Rubber - Logic: Natural rubber is supported by the strength of synthetic rubber, but its own supply - demand contradiction is not significant, and it is necessary to verify the tapping enthusiasm at high prices after the tapping season starts [13]. - Technical Analysis: The daily - level of rubber shows a medium - term upward structure, and the hourly - level shows a downward structure. Today, it decreased in volume with a long negative line, breaking through the short - term support below the 16250 level. The short - term structure turns down, and the upper pressure is at the 16500 level. The strategy is to pay attention to the short - selling signal after the rebound fails to break through the pressure in the hourly cycle [13]. Synthetic Rubber - Logic: The conflict between the US - Israel and Iran has entered the third week. The raw material reduction has led domestic petrochemical plants to reduce production. The output of butadiene has started to decline, and the inventory has decreased significantly, supporting the synthetic rubber price from the cost side [16]. - Technical Analysis: The daily - level of synthetic rubber shows a medium - term upward structure, and the hourly - level shows a short - term upward structure. Today, it rose and then fell, and the short - term support below is at the 15000 level. The strategy is to wait and see in the hourly cycle [16]. PX - Logic: The supply problem of naphtha raw materials has affected the supply of polyester PX and PTA. The start - up rate of PX dropped from 93.2% to 89.2% in two weeks, and the start - up rate of PTA dropped to 80%. The import expectation from South Korea also decreased. The supply tightening expectation gave short - term strong support to PX and PTA [20]. - Technical Analysis: The daily - level of PX shows a medium - term upward structure, and the hourly - level shows a short - term structure. Today, it rose and then fell, and the short - term support below is at the 9570 level. The strategy is to wait and see unilaterally in the hourly level [20]. PTA - Logic: Similar to PX, the supply tightening expectation gave short - term strong support to PX and PTA [23]. - Technical Analysis: The daily - level of PTA shows a medium - term upward structure, and the hourly - level shows a short - term upward structure. Today, it rose and then fell, and the short - term support below is at the 6720 level. The strategy is to wait and see unilaterally in the hourly cycle [23]. PP - Logic: The operating load of polyolefins has been continuously declining. The start - up rate of PP dropped from 75% to 70% in two weeks, and the start - up rate of PE dropped from 88% to 82% in two weeks. The supply contraction expectation gave short - term strong support to PX and PTA [27]. - Technical Analysis: The hourly - level of PP shows a short - term upward structure. Today, it increased in volume, and the short - term support below is at the 8250 level. The strategy is to continue to wait and see in the hourly cycle [27]. Methanol - Logic: The expectation of a reduction in methanol imports from the Middle East is still fermenting. If the conflict cannot end before the end of March, there is a large expectation of a reduction in methanol imports. Currently, methanol is still supported by bullish sentiment [29]. - Technical Analysis: The short - term of methanol shows an upward structure. Today, it increased in volume with a long positive line, and the short - term support below is at the 2860 level. The strategy is to wait and see in the hourly cycle, and stop the loss of the previous 05P2400 put option [31]. Ethylene Glycol - Logic: The weekly start - up rate of ethylene glycol dropped to 66.7%, a 7.2% decline from the previous period. The inventory has entered a pattern of reduction, and combined with the spring maintenance of coal - chemical plants, the supply contraction makes ethylene glycol bullish and difficult to fall in the short term [33]. - Technical Analysis: The hourly - level of EG shows a short - term upward structure. Today, it increased in volume with a long positive line, and the short - term support below is at the 4760 level. The strategy is to wait and see in the hourly cycle [33]. Plastic - Logic: It follows the cost - side drive of crude oil and the expectation of Asian refinery production cuts. The current market is a game of events, and the end of the event means the peak of the market [35]. - Technical Analysis: The hourly - level of plastic shows an upward structure. Today, it increased in volume with a long positive line, and the short - term support below is at the 8350 level. The strategy is to wait and see in the hourly cycle [35]. Soda Ash - Logic: The cost increase expectation and chemical sentiment resonance drive the soda ash market to strengthen in the first two weeks, but the over - supply situation restricts its upward space, and it is still likely to fall and difficult to rise in the medium term [40]. - Technical Analysis: The hourly - level of soda ash shows a short - term downward structure. Today, it fluctuated within the day, and the short - term upper pressure is at the 1265 level. The strategy is to hold short positions in the hourly cycle, and the stop - profit reference is at the 1265 level [40]. PVC - Logic: Although the real - estate demand is still weak year - on - year, due to the geopolitical influence, domestic ethylene - based plants have started to reduce production, and overseas chlor - alkali plants have also reduced their loads. The supply disturbances caused by geopolitics make PVC likely to rise and difficult to fall in the short term [41]. - Technical Analysis: The daily - level of PVC shows a medium - term upward structure, and the hourly - level shows a short - term upward structure. Today, it rose and then fell, and the short - term support below is at the 5600 level. The strategy is to wait and see in the hourly cycle [41].

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Ratings - No investment rating information provided in the reports Group 2: Core Views Polyolefins - The current market is in a fierce game between strong cost support, supply contraction expectations, and weak actual demand. It is expected that prices will maintain a wide - range high - level shock. If the geopolitical tension continues, under the combination of "domestic production cuts, reduced imports, and increased exports", and the conflict tends to be long - term, the domestic start - up rate may decline further after April, and the 05 contract is expected to have a significant upward market [1]. Rubber - The Sino - US conflict remains stalemate, and the crude oil price fluctuates at a high level. In the short term, the crude oil trend still dominates the market risk sentiment. The natural rubber fundamentals have both long and short factors, and it is expected to fluctuate within a range of 16,000 - 17,500, with strong cost support at the lower end. Be vigilant about the market trading the reduction of Middle - East tire demand again at the upper end of the price range [2]. Glass and Soda Ash - Soda ash: The fundamental pattern of strong supply and weak demand continues. In the short term, multiple production lines are planned for maintenance. In the medium - to - long term, there is still some room below the current price. It is expected that the futures will be in a shock - adjustment pattern, with a reference range of 1150 - 1300. It is recommended to wait and see unilaterally, and pay attention to inventory and production line changes. - Glass: The current supply - side daily melting volume is already low, and the real - estate data shows that the real - estate is still in the adjustment period, and the demand - side recovery is slow. The overall fundamentals have weak supply and demand. It is advisable to view it with a shock outlook. The strategy is to wait and see, with a reference range of 1000 - 1150. Pay attention to inventory and downstream demand [3]. PVC and Caustic Soda - Caustic soda: Although the fundamentals have marginally improved, the overall pattern of weak supply and demand remains unchanged. Recently, the Middle - East situation has slightly eased, and after the emotional tide recedes, the futures price has declined. - PVC: In the short term, the supply - demand situation has slightly changed. Affected by the expected increase in ethylene supply tension, the production load of ethylene - based production enterprises may be reduced in the long term, while the calcium - carbide - based production load has slightly increased. The cost increase drives the bottom of the PVC price to rise. The domestic demand is normal, and foreign trade exports are waiting for new quotes due to unstable freight and other risks [4]. Urea - The current urea fundamentals have not improved significantly. In the short term, urea prices are mainly subject to fluctuations driven by energy costs. Recently, the tense situation of high oil prices has slightly eased. Under the background of domestic price - stabilizing policies, urea may experience a shock - decline in the short term [5]. Ester Industry Chain - PX: In the short term, the supply and demand of PX are both weak, and the overall supply - demand is marginally weakening. The current benchmark price still dominates the chemical trend. Pay attention to the downstream negative feedback. It is expected that the absolute price of PX will fluctuate with the oil price in the short term. - PTA: In the short term, PTA's own driving force is limited, and the absolute price fluctuates with the cost side. - Ethylene glycol: In March, the domestic supply of ethylene glycol has significantly declined, and the arrival volume of foreign ships will be at a low level. The polyester load is seasonally rising, and the de - stocking amplitude is expected to expand in March - April. In the short term, the ethylene glycol price still has the momentum to rise. - Short - fiber: In the short term, the short - fiber's own driving force is limited, and it mainly follows the raw material fluctuations. - Bottle chips: The supply of domestic bottle chips is gradually increasing in March. Under the influence of macro and crude oil stimulation and the peak procurement season of PET, the downstream procurement of bottle chips is expected to follow up, and the supply - demand of bottle chips is expected to be tight [6]. Crude Oil - In the short term, the oil price maintains a pattern of "policy suppression + geopolitical support", and Brent maintains a range - bound fluctuation. If the Strait of Hormuz blockade lasts for more than a month, the supply will change from inventory depletion to a substantial shortage, and the oil price may still have strong upward momentum [8]. Pure Benzene and Styrene - Pure benzene: The supply of pure benzene is expected to decline, and the supply - demand is expected to improve. In the short term, pure benzene may follow the oil - price fluctuations. - Styrene: In March, the supply of styrene remains high, and the supply - demand is expected to slightly de - stock. In the short term, the absolute price of styrene follows the oil - price fluctuations [10]. Methanol - At present, the price is dominated by supply - interruption expectations and risk sentiment. The subsequent trend highly depends on the actual progress of the geopolitical conflict [11]. LPG - No overall core view provided for LPG in the report Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs Polyolefins - **Prices**: Futures prices of L2605, L2609, PP2605, and PP2609 all declined on March 18 compared with the previous day, with declines ranging from 0.28% to 0.77%. Spot prices of East - China PP and North - China LLDPE also decreased, with declines of 0.58% and 0.61% respectively [1]. - **Inventory**: PE enterprise inventory decreased by 1.23% to 56.83 million tons, and social inventory decreased by 6.58% to 61.93 million tons. PP enterprise inventory decreased by 9.34% to 59.62 million tons, and trader inventory decreased by 6.04% to 19.36 million tons [1]. - **开工率**: PE device start - up rate decreased by 5.20% to 82.39%, and downstream weighted start - up rate increased by 18.20% to 33.83%. PP device start - up rate decreased by 5.95% to 69.98%, and downstream weighted start - up rate of PP powder increased by 14.53% to 31.35 [1]. Rubber - **Prices**: Spot prices of Yunnan Guofu hand - made rubber and Thai standard mixed rubber decreased by 2.99% and 1.92% respectively on March 18 compared with the previous day. The basis of whole - milk rubber decreased by 200.00% [2]. - **Production and Inventory**: In January, Thailand's rubber production increased by 11.09% to 549,000 tons, Indonesia's production decreased by 14.90% to 161,100 tons, and India's production decreased by 3.48% to 108,100 tons. The bonded - area inventory decreased by 0.42% to 677,569 tons, and the factory - warehouse futures inventory of natural rubber on the SHFE decreased by 2.20% to 49,291 tons [2]. - **开工率**: The start - up rates of semi - steel and all - steel tires increased by 3.68% and 4.32% respectively to 77.71% and 70.22% [2]. Glass and Soda Ash - **Prices**: Glass prices in North - China, East - China, and Central - China remained unchanged on March 18. Soda ash prices in North - China, East - China, Central - China, and Northwest - China also remained unchanged [3]. - **Supply and Inventory**: Soda ash start - up rate increased by 0.27% to 87.00%, and weekly output increased slightly. Float - glass daily melting volume decreased by 1.08% to 146,900 tons, and photovoltaic glass daily melting volume increased by 1.82% to 89,360 tons. Glass factory - warehouse inventory decreased by 4.76% to 75,849,000 weight - cases, and soda ash factory - warehouse inventory decreased by 1.6% to 193,170 tons [3]. PVC and Caustic Soda - **Prices**: On March 18, the price of Shandong 32% liquid caustic soda remained unchanged, while the price of Shandong 50% liquid caustic soda increased by 0.8%. The price of East - China calcium - carbide - based PVC decreased by 0.9%, and the price of East - China ethylene - based PVC remained unchanged [4]. - **Supply and Demand**: The start - up rate of the caustic - soda industry decreased by 1.3% to 85.3%, and the total start - up rate of PVC increased by 0.3% to 81.4%. The start - up rates of downstream industries such as printing and dyeing increased to varying degrees [4]. - **Inventory**: Caustic - soda factory - warehouse inventory decreased by 3.6% to 53,000 tons, and PVC upstream factory - warehouse inventory and total social inventory both decreased by 17.7% to 37,700 tons [4]. Urea - **Prices**: On March 18, the futures price of urea decreased, and the spot price continued to decline weakly. The prices of small - particle urea in Shandong, Henan, and other regions decreased slightly [5]. - **Supply and Demand**: The daily output of domestic urea decreased by 1.36% to 218,200 tons, and the start - up rate of urea production enterprises decreased by 1.36% to 92.68%. The agricultural demand for return - green fertilizer has ended, and the industrial demand is flat [5]. - **Inventory**: Domestic urea factory - warehouse inventory decreased by 15.53% to 808,900 tons, and port inventory remained unchanged at 189,000 tons [5]. Ester Industry Chain - **Prices**: On March 18, the prices of Brent crude oil and WTI crude oil increased, while the prices of downstream polyester products such as POY, FDY, and DTY decreased to varying degrees. The prices of PX, PTA, and MEG also showed different trends [6]. - **开工率**: The start - up rates of Asian PX, Chinese PX, PTA, and MEG all decreased to varying degrees, while the start - up rates of polyester comprehensive, direct - spinning filament, and polyester bottle chips increased [6]. Crude Oil - **Prices**: On March 18, Brent crude oil increased by 3.83% to $107.38 per barrel, WTI crude oil increased by 0.11% to $96.32 per barrel, and SC crude oil increased by 0.90% to 751.20 yuan per barrel [8]. - **价差**: The spreads between Brent M1 - M3, SC M1 - M3, and Brent - WTI all changed compared with the previous day [8]. Pure Benzene and Styrene - **Prices**: On March 18, the prices of Brent crude oil and WTI crude oil increased, while the prices of CFR China pure benzene, pure - benzene East - China spot, and benzene - ethylene East - China spot decreased [10]. - **Inventory**: The inventory of pure benzene in Jiangsu ports decreased by 4.6% to 288,000 tons, and the inventory of benzene - ethylene in Jiangsu ports increased by 3.8% to 162,500 tons [10]. - **开工率**: The start - up rates of Asian pure benzene, domestic pure benzene, and benzene - ethylene all decreased to varying degrees [10]. Methanol - **Prices**: On March 18, the closing price of MA2605 increased by 2.28% to 2912 yuan per ton, and the closing price of MA2609 increased by 1.19% to 2719 yuan per ton [11]. - **Inventory**: Methanol enterprise inventory decreased by 7.32% to 484,900 tons, and port inventory decreased by 3.89% to 1,262,000 tons [11]. - **开工率**: The start - up rate of domestic methanol enterprises increased slightly by 0.07% to 76.27%, and the start - up rate of overseas enterprises decreased by 9.58% to 47.2% [11]. LPG - **Prices**: On March 18, the prices of PG2604 and PG2605 decreased by 1.42% and 1.15% respectively. The price of South - China spot (civil gas) remained unchanged, and the price of deliverable spot increased by 1.81% [12]. - **Inventory**: LPG refinery storage - capacity ratio increased by 10.50% to 24.9%, and port inventory decreased by 1.52% to 227,000 tons [12]. - **开工率**: The start - up rate of upstream main - refineries decreased by 1.76% to 81.35%, and the start - up rate of downstream PDH decreased by 2.62% to 63.2% [12].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints - The market sentiment of the olefin sector cooled down yesterday, but the main line of supply contraction still runs through the chemical market. The ongoing turmoil in the Middle East, especially the Iran situation, has led to an upward trend in international oil prices, providing strong support for chemical products. The polyolefin market is mainly affected by concerns about raw material supply due to geopolitical factors and the expectation of supply contraction, which supports olefin prices [3]. - For PE, the supply is tightening as domestic refineries increase maintenance or reduce production, and the arrival of imported resources is expected to be weak. On the demand side, the overall downstream start - up has rebounded, but the increase in raw material costs has put pressure on the profitability of agricultural films, and the downstream procurement is cautious. The LLDPE basis has dropped significantly [3]. - For PP, the supply contraction is more obvious, with more upstream production enterprises reducing production preventively, and the maintenance loss in March - April is expected to continue to rise. On the demand side, the downstream start - up is gradually recovering, but due to price fluctuations and cost pressure, the downstream procurement is cautious, and the PP basis is weak [3]. Summary by Directory 1. Polyolefin Basis and Inter - period Structure - L主力合约收盘价为8496元/吨（-181），PP主力合约收盘价为8671元/吨（-186），LL华北现货为8300元/吨（-100），LL华东现货为8350元/吨（-200），PP华东现货为8600元/吨（-200），LL华北基差为-196元/吨（+81），LL华东基差为-146元/吨（-19），PP华东基差为-71元/吨（-14） [1] 2. Production Profit and Operating Rate - PE开工率为82.4%（-4.5%），PP开工率为70.1%（-4.4%） [1] - PE油制生产利润为-626.6元/吨（+335.4），PP油制生产利润为-616.6元/吨（+335.4），PDH制PP生产利润为-1364.0元/吨（+111.4） [1] 3. Polyolefin Non - standard Price Difference - Not provided in the content 4. Polyolefin Import and Export Profits - LL进口利润为-607.7元/吨（+114.2），PP进口利润为-1104.6元/吨（+161.2），PP出口利润为82.0美元/吨（-21.1） [1] 5. Polyolefin Downstream Operating Rate and Downstream Profits - PE下游农膜开工率为26.8%（+8.0%），PE下游包装膜开工率为43.4%（+3.1%），PP下游塑编开工率为40.5%（+2.9%），PP下游BOPP膜开工率为61.3%（+1.7%） [2] 6. Polyolefin Inventory - Not provided in the content Strategies - Unilateral: Cautiously go long on LLDPE and PP for hedging [4] - Inter - period: Go long on the spread of L05 - 09 and PP05 - 09 when the spread is low [4] - Cross - variety: No strategy provided [4]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The conflict between the US, Israel, and Iran remains unresolved, and the Strait of Hormuz shows signs of partial opening, but its sustainability is uncertain. The supply crunch of domestic chemical raw materials continues, and the short - term energy and chemical sector is strong. Attention should be paid to the Trump administration's next move in the conflict [2]. - The short - term supply crisis strongly supports the crude oil market, and the core of the game is the progress of the US - Israel - Iran conflict [3]. - The supply contraction of pure benzene and styrene is expected to be realized, providing short - term strong support, and the sustainability depends on the conflict progress [6][8]. - Natural rubber is supported by the strength of synthetic rubber, and the supply - demand contradiction of natural rubber itself is not significant [11]. - Due to the reduction of raw materials, domestic petrochemical plants have reduced production, and the price of synthetic rubber is easy to rise and difficult to fall [15]. - The supply of PX and PTA is tightened, and they are short - term strong [19][22]. - The supply of PP and PE is tightened, and they are short - term strong [26]. - The import of methanol is expected to decrease significantly if the conflict does not end by the end of March, and it is currently supported by emotional factors [28]. - The supply of ethylene glycol is contracted, and it is short - term bullish [32]. - The price of plastics is driven by cost and the expectation of Asian refinery production reduction, and the end of the event and the reopening of the strait mean the peak of the market [34]. - The price of soda ash is driven by cost and chemical sentiment in the short term, but the long - term over - supply restricts the upside space [39]. - The supply of PVC is disturbed by geopolitical factors, and it is short - term easy to rise and difficult to fall [40][42]. 3. Summary by Directory (1) Crude Oil - Logic: The US - Israel - Iran conflict has not improved, the Strait of Hormuz is mostly closed, and the oil production of Middle - Eastern Gulf countries has decreased by at least 10 million barrels per day, about 9% of the global supply. The short - term supply crisis strongly supports the crude oil market. The core of the game is the progress of the conflict [3]. - Technical Analysis: The daily - level medium - term and hourly - level short - term structures of crude oil are in an upward trend. It fluctuates widely today, with short - term support at 610. The hourly cycle strategy is to wait and see [3]. (2) Styrene - Logic: The production of Asian petroleum benzene decreased significantly last week. The domestic pure benzene start - up rate dropped from 79% to 74%, and the styrene start - up rate dropped by 2.3% to 71.79%. The supply contraction provides short - term strong support, and the sustainability depends on the conflict progress [6]. - Technical Analysis: The hourly - level short - term structure of styrene is in an upward trend. It fluctuates today, with short - term support at 9000. The hourly cycle strategy is to wait and see [6]. (3) Pure Benzene - Logic: Similar to styrene, the supply contraction provides short - term strong support, and the sustainability depends on the conflict progress [8]. - Technical Analysis: The hourly - level short - term structure of pure benzene is in a downward trend. It fluctuates today, with short - term support at 7170. The hourly cycle strategy is to wait and see [8]. (4) Rubber - Logic: Natural rubber is supported by the strength of synthetic rubber. The supply - demand contradiction of natural rubber itself is not significant, and the tapping enthusiasm needs to be verified after the tapping season [11]. - Technical Analysis: The daily - level medium - term and hourly - level short - term structures of rubber are in an upward trend. It fluctuates today, with short - term support at 16250. The hourly cycle strategy is to wait and see [11]. (5) Synthetic Rubber - Logic: The US - Israel - Iran conflict is deadlocked. Due to the reduction of raw materials, domestic petrochemical plants have reduced production, and the price of synthetic rubber is easy to rise and difficult to fall [15]. - Technical Analysis: The daily - level medium - term and hourly - level short - term structures of synthetic rubber are in an upward trend. It fluctuates today, with short - term support at 14300. The hourly cycle strategy is to wait and see [15]. (6) PX - Logic: The supply of naphtha raw materials affects the supply of PX and PTA. The start - up rate of PX dropped from 93.2% to 89.2%, and the start - up rate of PTA dropped to 80%. The supply is tightened, and PX is short - term strong [19]. - Technical Analysis: The daily - level medium - term and hourly - level short - term structures of PX are in an upward trend. It fluctuates today, with short - term support at 9750. The hourly - level strategy is to wait and see [19]. (7) PTA - Logic: Similar to PX, the supply is tightened, and PTA is short - term strong [22]. - Technical Analysis: The daily - level medium - term and hourly - level short - term structures of PTA are in an upward trend. It fluctuates today, with short - term support at 6720. The hourly cycle strategy is to wait and see [22]. (8) PP - Logic: The start - up rate of polyolefins has been declining. The start - up rate of PP dropped from 75% to 70%, and the start - up rate of PE dropped from 88% to 82%. The supply is tightened, and PP is short - term strong [26]. - Technical Analysis: The hourly - level short - term structure of PP is in an upward trend. It falls with reduced positions today, with short - term support at 8250. The hourly cycle strategy is to wait and see [26]. (9) Methanol - Logic: The expectation of reduced methanol imports from the Middle East is still fermenting. If the conflict does not end by the end of March, there will be a significant reduction in imports. Currently, it is supported by emotional factors [28]. - Technical Analysis: The short - term structure of methanol is in an upward trend. It fluctuates today, with short - term support at 2500. The hourly cycle strategy is to wait and see, and put options of 05P2400 can be gradually arranged (the premium does not exceed 3% of the total funds) [30]. (10) Ethylene Glycol - Logic: The start - up rate of ethylene glycol dropped to 66.7%, a 7.2% month - on - month decrease. The inventory is in a destocking pattern, and the supply is contracted, so it is short - term bullish [32]. - Technical Analysis: The hourly - level short - term structure of ethylene glycol is in an upward trend. It fluctuates today, with short - term support at 4600. The hourly cycle strategy is to wait and see [32]. (11) Plastic - Logic: It follows the cost - end drive of crude oil and the expectation of Asian refinery production reduction. The end of the event and the reopening of the strait mean the peak of the market [34]. - Technical Analysis: The hourly - level structure of plastic is in an upward trend. It falls with reduced positions today, with short - term support at 8150. The hourly cycle strategy is to wait and see [34]. (12) Soda Ash - Logic: Driven by the cost increase expectation and chemical sentiment, the soda ash market strengthened in the previous two weeks. However, the over - supply restricts the upside space, and it is easy to fall and difficult to rise in the medium term [39]. - Technical Analysis: The hourly - level short - term structure of soda ash is in an upward trend. It falls with increased positions today, with short - term support at 1215. The hourly cycle strategy is to hold short positions, and the take - profit reference is 1280 [39]. (13) PVC - Logic: Although the real - estate demand is still weak, the domestic ethylene - based plants and overseas chlor - alkali plants have reduced production due to geopolitical factors, and the supply is disturbed, so it is short - term easy to rise and difficult to fall [40][42]. - Technical Analysis: The daily - level medium - term and hourly - level short - term structures of PVC are in an upward trend. It fluctuates today, with short - term support at 5530. The hourly cycle strategy is to wait and see [42].