| | | | | | | | 研究中心农产品团队 2025/07/21 | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 玉米/淀粉 | | | | 玉米 | | | 淀粉 | | | | | | 日期 | 长春 | 锦州 | 潍坊 | 蛇口 | 基差 | 贸易利润 | 进口盈亏 | 黑龙江 | 潍坊 | 基差 | 加工利润 | | 2025/07/14 | 2240 | 2300 | 2390 | 2430 | -2 | -10 | 417 | 2850 | 2950 | 178 | -59 | | 2025/07/15 | 2230 | 2300 | 2400 | 2430 | 5 | -10 | 409 | 2850 | 2950 | 184 | -39 | | 2025/07/16 | 2230 | 2300 | 2420 | 2430 | 7 | -10 | 401 | 2850 | 2950 | 166 | -46 | | 2025/07/17 | 2230 | 2290 | ...

农产品早报 研究中心农产品团队 2025/07/18 玉米/淀粉 玉米 淀粉 日期 长春 锦州 潍坊 蛇口 基差 贸易利润 进口盈亏 黑龙江 潍坊 基差 加工利润 2025/07/11 2250 2310 2398 2430 4 -20 449 2850 2950 169 -79 2025/07/14 2240 2300 2390 2430 -2 -10 417 2850 2950 178 -59 2025/07/15 2230 2300 2400 2430 5 -10 409 2850 2950 184 -39 2025/07/16 2230 2300 2420 2430 7 -10 401 2850 2950 166 -46 2025/07/17 2230 2290 2440 2430 -6 0 395 2850 2950 159 -46 变化 0 -10 20 0 -13 10 -6 0 0 -7 0 【行情分析】： 玉米：近期储备抛储进口玉米，使得市场供应端呈现小幅增量态势，此前紧张的市场情绪得以阶段性缓解，部分用粮企业随之下调收购价格。 短期看，抛储的意图主要为了缓和市场紧张氛围，并不是为了打压玉米 ...

Group 1: Corn and Starch Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints - Corn: Recent reserve auctions of imported corn have increased market supply slightly, easing market tension and leading some grain - using enterprises to lower purchase prices. In the short - term, the auctions aim to ease market tension rather than suppress prices, and old - crop inventories support prices. In the long - term, increasing import profits may lead to more imports and weaker far - month prices [1]. - Starch: Some enterprises raised starch prices due to production losses this week. In the short - term, strong raw material prices will support starch prices, but high industry inventories will limit the rebound. In the long - term, weak downstream consumption and slow inventory reduction will restrict price increases. Consider shorting far - month contracts after a small profit repair [2]. Summary by Related Content - Corn: Market supply increased slightly due to reserve auctions. Old - crop inventories support prices in the short - term, and import increases may pose risks in the long - term [1]. - Starch: Price increases are limited by high inventories and weak downstream consumption [2]. Group 2: Sugar Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints - International sugar prices are pressured by Brazil's high - supply during the peak crushing season, with support at the Brazilian ethanol price. There is potential for a corrective rebound in raw sugar due to accumulated risks in Brazil. The domestic market follows raw sugar, but Zhengzhou sugar has a smaller amplitude. Upcoming large imports will put pressure on the domestic market [3]. Summary by Related Content - International: Brazil's peak crushing season increases supply, and raw sugar may rebound. - Domestic: Follows raw sugar, but with smaller fluctuations. Upcoming imports will pressure the market [3]. Group 3: Cotton and Cotton Yarn Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints - Cotton: Rapid inventory decline has driven up prices, but hedging pressure and weak downstream demand limit price increases. Prices may fall if demand worsens or there are macro risks; otherwise, they will oscillate [4]. Summary by Related Content - Cotton: Inventory decline boosts prices, but downstream factors limit upside potential [4]. Group 4: Eggs Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints - In early July, adverse weather affected egg storage and transportation, and weak demand led to a price decline. As the weather improves, prices will enter a seasonal upward trend, but high inventory may limit the rebound [4]. Summary by Related Content - Eggs: Weather affected prices in early July, and high inventory may limit the seasonal rebound [4]. Group 5: Apples Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints - New - crop apple production may not differ much from last year, but regional differences exist. Consumption is in the off - season, with low inventory and slow de - stocking. Spot prices rose significantly in 2025, and seasonal fruits are squeezing apple market share [7]. Summary by Related Content - Apples: New - crop production varies regionally. Off - season consumption, low inventory, and slow de - stocking. Spot prices rose, and seasonal fruits compete [7]. Group 6: Pigs Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints - Limited capacity reduction means long - term supply pressure remains. Mid - term price rebounds are not conducive to de - stocking. Futures prices have risen on expectations, but need spot verification. Spot price rebounds face resistance, and seasonal factors provide some support. Monitor factors like slaughter rhythm, weather, and policies [7]. Summary by Related Content - Pigs: Long - term supply pressure, mid - term de - stocking challenges, futures - spot relationship, and factors to monitor [7].

Group 1: Report Overview - The report is an agricultural products morning report released on July 15, 2025, by the agricultural products team of the research center [1] Group 2: Corn/Starch Price Data - From July 8 - 14, 2025, prices in Jinzhou decreased by 10, in Weifang by 8, and the basis changed by -6. Trade profit increased by 10, and import profit increased by 8. For starch, the basis increased by 9, and processing profit increased by 20 [2] Market Analysis - Corn: Recent reserve auctions of imported corn increased supply slightly, easing market tension and causing some grain - using enterprises to lower purchase prices. In the short - term, the auctions aim to ease market tension, and low old - crop inventories support prices. In the long - term, widening import profits may lead to increased imports and weaker prices [3] - Starch: Some enterprises raised starch prices due to production losses. In the short - term, strong raw material prices support starch prices, but high industry inventories limit the rebound. In the long - term, weak downstream consumption restricts price increases, and it's advisable to short far - month contracts after a small profit repair [3] Group 3: Sugar Price Data - From July 8 - 14, 2025, there was no change in spot prices in Liuzhou, Nanning, and Kunming. The basis decreased by 7, and import profit from Thailand and Brazil increased by 77. The number of warehouse receipts decreased by 134 [4] Market Analysis - International sugar prices are under pressure due to Brazil's peak crushing season. However, Brazil faces risks (low yield, sugar content, and falling sugar - making ratio), giving raw sugar potential for a corrective rebound. The domestic market follows raw sugar, but Zhengzhou sugar has a smaller fluctuation range. With a large amount of imported sugar arriving, the futures price faces upward pressure [4] Group 4: Cotton/Cotton Yarn Price Data - From July 8 - 14, 2025, the price of 3128 cotton increased by 5, and the number of warehouse receipts + forecasts decreased by 61. The price of Vietnamese yarn increased by 50, and the import profit increased by 54. The 32S spinning profit increased by 45 [6] Market Analysis - A rapid decline in cotton inventories has driven up prices recently, but there is resistance from hedging orders. Weak downstream orders, profits, and machine - running rates limit the acceptance of high prices. If demand worsens or there are macro risks, prices may fall; otherwise, they will fluctuate at the current level [6] Group 5: Eggs Price Data - From July 8 - 14, 2025, egg prices in Hebei, Liaoning, Shandong, Henan, and Hubei increased by 0.22, 0.22, 0.25, 0.20, and 0.15 respectively. The basis increased by 20 [8] Market Analysis - In early July, hot and humid weather in northern production areas affected egg storage and transportation, causing the futures price to fall. As the weather clears, egg prices will enter a seasonal upward channel, but high inventory may limit the rebound [9] Group 6: Apples Price Data - From July 8 - 14, 2025, the price of Shandong 80 first - and second - grade apples remained unchanged. The national inventory increased by 6, Shandong inventory increased by 11, and Shaanxi inventory decreased by 24 [11][12] Market Analysis - In the new production season, apple bagging has ended in various regions. Western regions may see increased yield but have serious tree - felling problems, and Shandong is expected to have a 20% reduction. National production may not differ much from last year. Consumption is in the off - season, with the lowest inventory in five years and slower de - stocking recently. Spot prices have risen significantly, and seasonal fruits are squeezing apples' market share [12] Group 7: Pigs Price Data - From July 8 - 14, 2025, pig prices in Henan Kaifeng, Hubei Xiangyang, Shandong Linyi, Anhui Hefei, and Jiangsu Nantong decreased by 0.10, 0.15, 0.05, 0.25, and 0.20 respectively. The basis decreased by 40 [12] Market Analysis - Pig production capacity reduction is limited, and long - term supply pressure remains. In the medium - term, price rebounds are not conducive to capacity and inventory reduction. Futures prices have risen on expectations of seasonal rebounds and policies, but need spot price verification. Spot price rebounds are temporarily blocked, and the de - stocking path is crucial [12]

农产品早报 研究中心农产品团队 2025/07/14 | 玉米/淀粉 | | | | 玉米 | | | | | 淀粉 | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 日期 | 长春 | 锦州 | 潍坊 | 蛇口 | 基差 | 贸易利润 进口盈亏 | 黑龙江 | 潍坊 | 基差 | 加工利润 | | 2025/07/07 | - | 2320 | 2420 | 2460 | -6 | 10 423 | 2850 | 2950 | 165 | -69 | | 2025/07/08 | - | 2310 | 2420 | 2450 | -11 | 10 452 | 2850 | 2950 | 149 | -69 | | 2025/07/09 | - | 2310 | 2420 | 2440 | -9 | -10 458 | 2850 | 2950 | 148 | -68 | | 2025/07/10 | - | 2310 | 2414 | 2440 | -10 | -10 458 | 2850 | 2950 | 14 ...

农产品早报 研究中心农产品团队 2025/07/11 棉花：棉花库存数据下降过快，以此计算的表需较高，若这样下去，季末去库不可避免，带动近期棉价上行，不过上方仍有套保盘压制，同时 下游订单、利润和开机均较弱，对高棉价接受度也有限，建议对本轮上涨持谨慎态度。若需求进一步恶化或出现宏观风险，棉价或进一步下 行，若均没有，将持续在目前位置震荡。 | 玉米/淀粉 | | | | 玉米 | | | | | | 淀粉 | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 日期 | 长春 | 锦州 | 潍坊 | 蛇口 | 基差 | 贸易利润 | 进口盈亏 | 黑龙江 | 潍坊 | 基差 | 加工利润 | | 2025/07/04 | - | 2330 | 2450 | 2460 | -23 | 0 | 423 | 2850 | 2950 | 128 | -66 | | 2025/07/07 | - | 2320 | 2420 | 2460 | -6 | 10 | 423 | 2850 | 2950 | 165 | -6 ...

农产品早报 研究中心农产品团队 2025/07/09 | 玉米/淀粉 | | | | 玉米 | | | | | 淀粉 | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 日期 | 长春 | 锦州 | 潍坊 | 蛇口 | 基差 | 贸易利润 进口盈亏 | 黑龙江 | 潍坊 | 基差 | 加工利润 | | 2025/07/02 | 2260 | 2330 | 2478 | 2460 | -33 | 0 470 | 2850 | 2950 | 114 | -66 | | 2025/07/03 | 2260 | 2330 | 2458 | 2460 | -33 | 0 431 | 2850 | 2950 | 114 | -66 | | 2025/07/04 | - | 2330 | 2450 | 2460 | -23 | 0 423 | 2850 | 2950 | 128 | -66 | | 2025/07/07 | - | 2320 | 2420 | 2460 | -6 | 10 423 | 2850 | 2950 | ...

农产品早报 研究中心农产品团队 2025/07/01 【行情分析】： 棉花：棉花库存数据下降过快，以此计算的表需较高，若这样下去，季末去库不可避免，带动近期棉价上行，不过上方仍有套保盘压制，同时 下游订单、利润和开机均较弱，对高棉价接受度也有限，建议对本轮上涨持谨慎态度。若需求进一步恶化或出现宏观风险，棉价或进一步下 行，若均没有，将持续在目前位置震荡。 | 玉米/淀粉 | | | 玉米 | | | | | 淀粉 | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 日期 长春 | 锦州 | 潍坊 | 蛇口 | 基差 | 贸易利润 进口盈亏 | 黑龙江 | 潍坊 | 基差 | 加工利润 | | 2025/06/24 2260 | 2330 | 2440 | 2460 | -59 | 0 443 | 2850 | 2950 | 168 | -63 | | 2025/06/25 2260 | 2330 | 2450 | 2460 | -47 | 0 459 | 2850 | 2950 | 113 | -63 | | 2025/06/ ...

农产品早报 研究中心农产品团队 2025/06/27 | 玉米/淀粉 | | | | 玉米 | | | | | 淀粉 | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 日期 | 长春 | 锦州 | 潍坊 | 蛇口 | 基差 | 贸易利润 进口盈亏 | 黑龙江 | 潍坊 | 基差 | 加工利润 | | 2025/06/20 | 2240 | 2330 | 2430 | 2460 | -79 | 0 410 | 2800 | 2950 | 144 | -72 | | 2025/06/23 | - | 2330 | 2440 | 2460 | -78 | 0 418 | 2850 | 2950 | 151 | -70 | | 2025/06/24 | - | 2330 | 2440 | 2460 | -59 | 0 443 | 2850 | 2950 | 168 | -63 | | 2025/06/25 | - | 2330 | 2450 | 2460 | -47 | 0 459 | 2850 | 2950 | 113 ...

农产品早报 | 研究中心农产品团队 2025/06/25 | | --- | | 玉米/淀粉 | | | | 玉米 | | | | | | 淀粉 | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 日期 | 长春 | 锦州 | 潍坊 | 蛇口 | 基差 | 贸易利润 | 进口盈亏 | 黑龙江 | 潍坊 | 基差 | 加工利润 | | 2025/06/18 | 2240 | 2330 | 2410 | 2450 | -33 | -10 | 407 | 2800 | 2950 | 151 | -73 | | 2025/06/19 | 2240 | 2330 | 2420 | 2450 | -75 | -10 | 400 | 2800 | 2950 | 145 | -72 | | 2025/06/20 | 2240 | 2330 | 2430 | 2460 | -79 | 0 | 410 | 2800 | 2950 | 144 | -72 | | 2025/06/23 | - | 2330 | 2440 | ...