农产品行情分析
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农产品早报-20250804
Yong An Qi Huo· 2025-08-04 13:43
Group 1: Overall Information - The report is an agricultural products morning report released by the Research Center's Agricultural Products Team on August 4, 2025 [1][2] Group 2: Corn and Starch Price Data - For corn, from July 28 to August 1, prices in Changchun remained stable at 2230, in Jinzhou remained at 2290, in Weifang decreased by 6 to 2458, and in Shekou increased by 10 to 2420. The basis changed by -9, trade profit increased by 10, and import profit decreased by 5 [2] - For starch, from July 28 to August 1, prices in Heilongjiang remained at 2900, in Weifang remained at 2980, the basis increased by 62, and processing profit remained unchanged [2] Market Analysis - Corn: Reserve imported corn is being continuously auctioned, with this week's成交 rates at 27% and 31%. The import auction aims to ease supply shortages without suppressing domestic prices. With low成交 rates, the supply increase is limited. Currently, supply relies on old - crop stocks and wheat substitution. In the short - term, with a tight balance sheet, port corn inventories are decreasing, supporting current prices. In the long - term, if import profitability persists, it may increase future import orders, and new - crop supply may pressure prices [3] - Starch: This week, starch prices diverged, with a decrease in Northeast China and an increase in Shandong. Inventory remains high. In the short - term, prices fluctuate with raw material prices, and after a correction, there is support for a weak rebound. In the long - term, high inventory and expected lower raw material costs are bearish for starch prices [3] Group 3: Sugar Price Data - From July 28 to August 1, the price in Liuzhou decreased by 70 to 6030, in Nanning remained unchanged at 6030, and in Kunming decreased by 20 to 5880. The basis in Liuzhou decreased by 10, import profit from Thailand decreased by 15, from Brazil decreased by 15, and the number of warehouse receipts decreased by 30 [6] Market Analysis - Internationally, Brazil is in the peak crushing season, pressuring sugar prices. Due to lower - than - expected yields and sugar extraction rates, there may be a corrective rebound. Domestically, prices follow international trends, but the amplitude is smaller. With a large amount of imported sugar arriving, there is pressure on the futures price [6] Group 4: Cotton and Cotton Yarn Price Data - From July 28 to August 1, the price of 3128 cotton decreased by 15 to 14785, the number of warehouse receipts + forecasts decreased by 133, the price of Vietnamese yarn decreased by 100 to 20700, the import profit of Vietnamese yarn decreased by 211, and the 32S spinning profit decreased by 84 [7] Market Analysis - With a weakening commodity atmosphere, there was a strong backwardation in cotton futures. Now that the 9 - 1 spread has reached - 200, it's advisable to reduce positions. Future prices depend on downstream demand recovery, which may be reflected in mid - to late August [7] Group 5: Eggs Price Data - From July 28 to August 1, prices in Hebei, Liaoning, Shandong, and Henan remained unchanged, while in Hubei it decreased by 0.11 to 3.60. The basis increased by 58 to 229, and the price of substitute products such as white - feather broilers and yellow - feather broilers remained unchanged, while the price of live pigs increased by 0.15 to 20.60 [9] Market Analysis - In mid - July, high temperatures and post - plum - rain restocking drove up egg prices, but later, cold - storage egg release and unfavorable weather led to a price correction. Starting from mid - August, holiday and school - opening demand may drive prices up again, but high inventory may limit the increase [10] Group 6: Apples Price Data - From July 28 to August 1, the price of Shandong 80 first - and second - grade apples remained at 7800. The national inventory increased by 62 to 57.61, Shandong inventory increased by 7 to 35.27, and Shaanxi inventory increased by 56 to 15.34. The 1 - month basis increased by 115 to 115, the 5 - month basis increased by 107 to 0, and the 10 - month basis increased by 294 to 42 [12][13] Market Analysis - In the new crop season, apples are in the growth stage. Western regions may have increased yields but face tree - felling issues, and Shandong may have a 20% yield reduction. Consumption is in the off - season, with the lowest inventory in five years and slower de - stocking [13] Group 7: Pigs Price Data - From July 28 to August 1, prices in Henan Kaifeng increased by 0.10 to 14.38, in Hubei Xiangyang increased by 0.10 to 14.35, in Shandong Linyi increased by 0.15 to 14.37, in Anhui Hefei increased by 0.25 to 14.70, in Jiangsu Nantong increased by 0.20 to 14.80, and the basis increased by 120 to 325 [13] Market Analysis - There is insufficient capacity reduction, and long - term supply pressure persists. Futures prices are affected by seasonal expectations and policy hopes, but now they are trading based on weak reality. Short - term spot prices are in a weak oscillation, with pressure in August but also seasonal support later [13]
农产品早报-20250730
Yong An Qi Huo· 2025-07-30 00:42
Group 1: Report Overview - The report is an agricultural products morning report released by the research center's agricultural products team on July 30, 2025 [1][2] Group 2: Corn/Starch Price Data - From July 23 - 29, 2025, in Changchun, the price remained 2230; in Jinzhou, it stayed at 2300 - 2310; in Weifang, it increased by 10 to 2454; in Shekou, it remained 2430. The corn basis increased by 17, and the import profit increased by 23. For starch, the price in Heilongjiang and Weifang remained 2850 and 2950 respectively, the basis increased by 17, and the processing profit remained unchanged [3] Market Analysis - For corn, reserve - imported corn auctions continued this week with成交 rates of 27% and 28%, easing supply tightness. In the short - term, the supply pressure increase from auctions is limited. There may be a supply - demand gap before new crops are launched. In the long - term, if import profit persists, it may increase forward import orders, and new - season supply may pressure prices. For starch, the price was stable this week with slightly better transactions but still in inventory accumulation. In the short - term, it may have a weak rebound; in the long - term, high inventory and expected lower raw material costs are bearish [4] Group 3: Sugar Price Data - From July 23 - 29, 2025, the spot prices in Liuzhou, Nanning, and Kunming remained unchanged. The basis decreased by 22, the import profit from Thailand decreased by 45, from Brazil decreased by 46, and the warehouse receipts decreased by 404 [7] Market Analysis - Internationally, Brazil is in the peak crushing season, pressuring sugar prices. Due to lower - than - expected yields and sugar extraction rates, there may be a corrective rebound. Domestically, it follows international prices with smaller fluctuations. With a large amount of imported sugar arriving, the futures price faces upward pressure [7] Group 4: Cotton/Cotton Yarn Price Data - From July 23 - 29, 2025, the price of 3128 cotton decreased by 55 to 15165, the import profit decreased, the warehouse receipts + forecasts decreased by 72, the import profit of Vietnamese yarn decreased by 26, and the 32S spinning profit increased by 58 [9] Market Analysis - Cotton prices rose due to inventory reduction at the end of the season, but downstream demand is weak, and textile profits are at a low level. Whether the upward trend can continue needs verification in the September peak season. Uncertainty exists in single - sided trading, and 9 - 11 or 9 - 1 reverse spreads can be considered [9] Group 5: Eggs Price Data - From July 23 - 29, 2025, the spot prices in Hebei, Liaoning, Shandong, and Henan remained unchanged, while in Hubei, it remained 3.73. The basis decreased by 442 [14] Market Analysis - Egg spot prices rebounded seasonally, with large - sized eggs rising more. However, high cold - storage egg inventory and high laying - hen存栏 may affect the price increase rhythm and limit the rebound height [14] Group 6: Apples Price Data - From July 23 - 29, 2025, the spot price of Shandong 80 first - and second - grade apples remained 7800. The 1 - month basis changed from 283 to 8, the 5 - month basis changed from 319 to - 46, and the 10 - month basis changed from 144 to - 108 [16][17] Market Analysis - In the new apple season, the yield in western regions may increase but with serious tree - felling, and Shandong may have a 20% reduction. The consumption is in the off - season, and the apparent inventory is the lowest in the past five years. Spot prices have risen significantly this year, and the impact of post - bag - removal conditions needs attention [17] Group 7: Pigs Price Data - From July 23 - 29, 2025, the spot prices in Henan Kaifeng, Hubei Xiangyang, Shandong Linyi, Anhui Hefei, and Jiangsu Nantong decreased, and the basis decreased by 225 [17] Market Analysis - Pig production capacity reduction is limited, and long - term supply pressure remains. Futures prices need spot verification. Short - term supply is sufficient, demand is average, and seasonal support exists. Attention should be paid to factors such as slaughter rhythm, weather, and policies [17]
农产品早报-20250729
Yong An Qi Huo· 2025-07-29 02:22
| | | | | | | 农产品早报 | | | 研究中心农产品团队 2025/07/29 | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 玉米/淀粉 | | | | 玉米 | | | | | | 淀粉 | | | 日期 | 长春 | 锦州 | 潍坊 | 蛇口 | 基差 | 贸易利润 | 进口盈亏 | 黑龙江 | 潍坊 | 基差 | 加工利润 | | 2025/07/22 | 2230 | 2310 | 2460 | 2440 | -12 | -10 | 358 | 2850 | 2950 | 137 | -49 | | 2025/07/23 | 2230 | 2310 | 2460 | 2430 | -11 | -20 | 357 | 2850 | 2950 | 130 | -62 | | 2025/07/24 | 2230 | 2310 | 2446 | 2430 | -8 | -20 | 357 | 2850 | 2950 | 136 | -62 | | 2025/07/25 | - | ...
农产品早报-20250728
Yong An Qi Huo· 2025-07-28 05:51
1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Corn: In the short term, the supply - demand gap exists before the new crop is launched, and the price of spot and near - month contracts has strong support. In the long - term, the import profit may increase future imports, and the new - season supply increase may put downward pressure on prices [3]. - Starch: In the short term, it is expected to have a weak rebound. In the long - term, high inventory and lower raw material cost expectations are bearish for starch prices [3]. - Sugar: Internationally, Brazilian sugar production has uncertainty, and there may be a corrective rebound. Domestically, the arrival of imported sugar puts pressure on the upper limit of the futures price [6]. - Cotton: The end - of - season inventory reduction drives up prices, but downstream demand is weak. The upward trend needs verification in the peak season. Consider 9 - 11 or 9 - 1 reverse spreads for the month - spread [8]. - Eggs: The spot price is in a seasonal upward channel, but high cold - storage egg inventory and high hen存栏 may limit the rebound height [15]. - Apples: The new - season output may not differ much from last year. Consumption is in the off - season, and the inventory is at a five - year low. Keep an eye on the situation after bag - removal [18]. - Pigs: Long - term supply pressure remains. Futures prices need spot price verification. Short - term supply is sufficient, and seasonal support exists [18]. 3. Summary by Product Corn and Starch - **Price Data**: From July 21 - 25, 2025, the price in Changchun remained at 2230 yuan/ton, while prices in other regions changed. The basis of corn changed from - 10 to - 1, and the processing profit of starch remained at - 62 yuan/ton [2]. - **Market Analysis**: Reserve corn auctions ease supply tension in the short term. In the long - term, import and new - season supply may affect prices. Starch prices are affected by raw materials, with high inventory limiting price adjustment [3]. Sugar - **Price Data**: From July 21 - 25, 2025, the spot price in Liuzhou remained at 6120 yuan/ton. The basis and import profit changed, and the number of warehouse receipts decreased by 298 [6]. - **Market Analysis**: Brazilian sugar production has uncertainties. Imported sugar arrival in China puts pressure on the futures price [6]. Cotton and Cotton Yarn - **Price Data**: From July 21 - 25, 2025, the price of 3128 cotton decreased by 70 yuan/ton. The import profit decreased by 182 yuan/ton, and the 32S spinning profit increased by 73 yuan/ton [8]. - **Market Analysis**: End - of - season inventory reduction drives up cotton prices, but downstream demand is weak [8]. Eggs - **Price Data**: From July 21 - 25, 2025, egg prices in some regions increased, and the basis increased. The prices of substitutes such as chickens and pigs also changed [14]. - **Market Analysis**: Seasonal factors drive up egg prices, but high cold - storage inventory and high hen存栏 may limit the rebound [15]. Apples - **Price Data**: From July 21 - 25, 2025, the price of Shandong 80 first - and second - grade apples remained at 7800 yuan/ton. The basis for different contracts decreased [17][18]. - **Market Analysis**: The new - season output may not vary much from last year. Consumption is in the off - season, and inventory is low [18]. Pigs - **Price Data**: From July 21 - 25, 2025, pig prices in some regions decreased slightly, and the basis decreased by 70 [18]. - **Market Analysis**: Long - term supply pressure exists. Futures prices need spot price verification, and short - term supply is sufficient [18].
农产品早报-20250723
Yong An Qi Huo· 2025-07-23 01:12
Group 1: Report Overview - The report is an agricultural products morning report released on July 23, 2025, by the agricultural products team of the research center [2] Group 2: Corn and Starch Price Data - Corn prices in Changchun remained stable at 2230 from July 16 - 22, while prices in other regions had minor changes. The overall change in the base price was -2, and the import profit increased by 18. Starch prices in Heilongjiang and Weifang remained stable at 2850 and 2950 respectively, with the base price decreasing by 4 and the processing profit decreasing by 3 [3] Market Analysis - Corn: Reserve imported corn auctions had成交 rates of 25% and 17% this week. Short - term supply increased slightly, but there is still a supply - demand gap before the new crop is on the market. In the long - term, if the import profit persists, it may increase future import orders, and the new crop supply may put downward pressure on prices. Starch: This week, starch quotes were relatively stable, and the transaction situation improved slightly, but the industry continued to accumulate inventory. Short - term prices may have a weak rebound, while long - term prices are expected to be bearish [4] Group 3: Sugar Price Data - From July 16 - 22, the spot prices in Liuzhou remained stable at 6120, and the base price increased by 16. The number of warehouse receipts decreased by 78 [7] Market Analysis - Internationally, the Brazilian sugar market is under supply pressure during the peak crushing season, but there is a potential for a corrective rebound. Domestically, Zhengzhou sugar follows the international market, but its volatility is smaller. With a large amount of imported sugar about to arrive, the upper limit of the futures price is under pressure [7] Group 4: Cotton and Cotton Yarn Price Data - From July 16 - 22, the price of 3128 cotton decreased by 20. The import profit and other indicators also had corresponding changes, and the number of warehouse receipts + forecasts decreased by 5 [8] Market Analysis - Cotton prices rose rapidly due to low inventory and a hot commodity market, but downstream profits are at a historical low. With an expected increase in new crop production, prices may回调, and it is advisable to wait and see [8] Group 5: Eggs Price Data - From July 16 - 22, egg spot prices rebounded from the low level. The prices in various production areas increased, with the base price increasing by 10. The prices of substitutes such as white - feather broilers increased by 0.05, while the price of live pigs decreased by 0.06 [9] Market Analysis - Egg spot prices are in a seasonal upward channel, mainly driven by seasonal factors. However, high cold - storage egg inventory and a high egg - laying hen inventory base may limit the height of the rebound [10] Group 6: Apples Price Data - From July 16 - 22, the spot price of Shandong 80 first - and second - grade apples remained stable at 8100. The national inventory decreased by 6, and the base prices for different months also decreased [12][13] Market Analysis - In the new crop season, apple production in different regions has different trends. The consumption is in the off - season, and the apparent inventory is the lowest in the past five years. The spot price has risen significantly this year, and the market share is squeezed by seasonal fruits [13] Group 7: Pigs Price Data - From July 16 - 22, the spot prices in various production areas decreased slightly, and the base price decreased by 65 [13] Market Analysis - Pig prices rebounded after a high - level decline, but demand support is limited. Long - term over - supply pressure remains, and short - term inventory accumulation is expected. Futures prices are affected by emotions and need further verification from the spot market [13]
农产品早报-20250722
Yong An Qi Huo· 2025-07-22 08:06
| | | | 农产品早报 | | --- | 研究中心农产品团队 2025/07/22 玉米/淀粉 玉米 淀粉 日期 长春 锦州 潍坊 蛇口 基差 贸易利润 进口盈亏 黑龙江 潍坊 基差 加工利润 2025/07/15 2230 2300 2400 2430 5 -10 409 2850 2950 184 -39 2025/07/16 2230 2300 2420 2430 7 -10 401 2850 2950 166 -46 2025/07/17 2230 2290 2440 2430 -6 0 395 2850 2950 159 -46 2025/07/18 2230 2300 2450 2430 -14 -10 402 2850 2950 147 -46 2025/07/21 2230 2310 2450 2440 -10 -10 411 2850 2950 141 -46 变化 0 10 0 10 4 0 9 0 0 -6 0 【行情分析】: 玉米:储备进口玉米持续拍卖,本周成交率分别为 25% 和 17%。贸易商同步兑现部分库存,市场供应紧张氛围得到一定缓和。从短期看,抛储 主要旨在缓解供需紧张 ...
农产品早报-20250721
Yong An Qi Huo· 2025-07-21 10:07
| | | | | | | | 研究中心农产品团队 2025/07/21 | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 玉米/淀粉 | | | | 玉米 | | | 淀粉 | | | | | | 日期 | 长春 | 锦州 | 潍坊 | 蛇口 | 基差 | 贸易利润 | 进口盈亏 | 黑龙江 | 潍坊 | 基差 | 加工利润 | | 2025/07/14 | 2240 | 2300 | 2390 | 2430 | -2 | -10 | 417 | 2850 | 2950 | 178 | -59 | | 2025/07/15 | 2230 | 2300 | 2400 | 2430 | 5 | -10 | 409 | 2850 | 2950 | 184 | -39 | | 2025/07/16 | 2230 | 2300 | 2420 | 2430 | 7 | -10 | 401 | 2850 | 2950 | 166 | -46 | | 2025/07/17 | 2230 | 2290 | ...
农产品早报-20250718
Yong An Qi Huo· 2025-07-18 02:00
农产品早报 研究中心农产品团队 2025/07/18 玉米/淀粉 玉米 淀粉 日期 长春 锦州 潍坊 蛇口 基差 贸易利润 进口盈亏 黑龙江 潍坊 基差 加工利润 2025/07/11 2250 2310 2398 2430 4 -20 449 2850 2950 169 -79 2025/07/14 2240 2300 2390 2430 -2 -10 417 2850 2950 178 -59 2025/07/15 2230 2300 2400 2430 5 -10 409 2850 2950 184 -39 2025/07/16 2230 2300 2420 2430 7 -10 401 2850 2950 166 -46 2025/07/17 2230 2290 2440 2430 -6 0 395 2850 2950 159 -46 变化 0 -10 20 0 -13 10 -6 0 0 -7 0 【行情分析】: 玉米:近期储备抛储进口玉米,使得市场供应端呈现小幅增量态势,此前紧张的市场情绪得以阶段性缓解,部分用粮企业随之下调收购价格。 短期看,抛储的意图主要为了缓和市场紧张氛围,并不是为了打压玉米 ...
农产品早报-20250716
Yong An Qi Huo· 2025-07-16 13:41
Group 1: Corn and Starch Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints - Corn: Recent reserve auctions of imported corn have increased market supply slightly, easing market tension and leading some grain - using enterprises to lower purchase prices. In the short - term, the auctions aim to ease market tension rather than suppress prices, and old - crop inventories support prices. In the long - term, increasing import profits may lead to more imports and weaker far - month prices [1]. - Starch: Some enterprises raised starch prices due to production losses this week. In the short - term, strong raw material prices will support starch prices, but high industry inventories will limit the rebound. In the long - term, weak downstream consumption and slow inventory reduction will restrict price increases. Consider shorting far - month contracts after a small profit repair [2]. Summary by Related Content - Corn: Market supply increased slightly due to reserve auctions. Old - crop inventories support prices in the short - term, and import increases may pose risks in the long - term [1]. - Starch: Price increases are limited by high inventories and weak downstream consumption [2]. Group 2: Sugar Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints - International sugar prices are pressured by Brazil's high - supply during the peak crushing season, with support at the Brazilian ethanol price. There is potential for a corrective rebound in raw sugar due to accumulated risks in Brazil. The domestic market follows raw sugar, but Zhengzhou sugar has a smaller amplitude. Upcoming large imports will put pressure on the domestic market [3]. Summary by Related Content - International: Brazil's peak crushing season increases supply, and raw sugar may rebound. - Domestic: Follows raw sugar, but with smaller fluctuations. Upcoming imports will pressure the market [3]. Group 3: Cotton and Cotton Yarn Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints - Cotton: Rapid inventory decline has driven up prices, but hedging pressure and weak downstream demand limit price increases. Prices may fall if demand worsens or there are macro risks; otherwise, they will oscillate [4]. Summary by Related Content - Cotton: Inventory decline boosts prices, but downstream factors limit upside potential [4]. Group 4: Eggs Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints - In early July, adverse weather affected egg storage and transportation, and weak demand led to a price decline. As the weather improves, prices will enter a seasonal upward trend, but high inventory may limit the rebound [4]. Summary by Related Content - Eggs: Weather affected prices in early July, and high inventory may limit the seasonal rebound [4]. Group 5: Apples Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints - New - crop apple production may not differ much from last year, but regional differences exist. Consumption is in the off - season, with low inventory and slow de - stocking. Spot prices rose significantly in 2025, and seasonal fruits are squeezing apple market share [7]. Summary by Related Content - Apples: New - crop production varies regionally. Off - season consumption, low inventory, and slow de - stocking. Spot prices rose, and seasonal fruits compete [7]. Group 6: Pigs Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints - Limited capacity reduction means long - term supply pressure remains. Mid - term price rebounds are not conducive to de - stocking. Futures prices have risen on expectations, but need spot verification. Spot price rebounds face resistance, and seasonal factors provide some support. Monitor factors like slaughter rhythm, weather, and policies [7]. Summary by Related Content - Pigs: Long - term supply pressure, mid - term de - stocking challenges, futures - spot relationship, and factors to monitor [7].
农产品早报-20250715
Yong An Qi Huo· 2025-07-15 07:49
Group 1: Report Overview - The report is an agricultural products morning report released on July 15, 2025, by the agricultural products team of the research center [1] Group 2: Corn/Starch Price Data - From July 8 - 14, 2025, prices in Jinzhou decreased by 10, in Weifang by 8, and the basis changed by -6. Trade profit increased by 10, and import profit increased by 8. For starch, the basis increased by 9, and processing profit increased by 20 [2] Market Analysis - Corn: Recent reserve auctions of imported corn increased supply slightly, easing market tension and causing some grain - using enterprises to lower purchase prices. In the short - term, the auctions aim to ease market tension, and low old - crop inventories support prices. In the long - term, widening import profits may lead to increased imports and weaker prices [3] - Starch: Some enterprises raised starch prices due to production losses. In the short - term, strong raw material prices support starch prices, but high industry inventories limit the rebound. In the long - term, weak downstream consumption restricts price increases, and it's advisable to short far - month contracts after a small profit repair [3] Group 3: Sugar Price Data - From July 8 - 14, 2025, there was no change in spot prices in Liuzhou, Nanning, and Kunming. The basis decreased by 7, and import profit from Thailand and Brazil increased by 77. The number of warehouse receipts decreased by 134 [4] Market Analysis - International sugar prices are under pressure due to Brazil's peak crushing season. However, Brazil faces risks (low yield, sugar content, and falling sugar - making ratio), giving raw sugar potential for a corrective rebound. The domestic market follows raw sugar, but Zhengzhou sugar has a smaller fluctuation range. With a large amount of imported sugar arriving, the futures price faces upward pressure [4] Group 4: Cotton/Cotton Yarn Price Data - From July 8 - 14, 2025, the price of 3128 cotton increased by 5, and the number of warehouse receipts + forecasts decreased by 61. The price of Vietnamese yarn increased by 50, and the import profit increased by 54. The 32S spinning profit increased by 45 [6] Market Analysis - A rapid decline in cotton inventories has driven up prices recently, but there is resistance from hedging orders. Weak downstream orders, profits, and machine - running rates limit the acceptance of high prices. If demand worsens or there are macro risks, prices may fall; otherwise, they will fluctuate at the current level [6] Group 5: Eggs Price Data - From July 8 - 14, 2025, egg prices in Hebei, Liaoning, Shandong, Henan, and Hubei increased by 0.22, 0.22, 0.25, 0.20, and 0.15 respectively. The basis increased by 20 [8] Market Analysis - In early July, hot and humid weather in northern production areas affected egg storage and transportation, causing the futures price to fall. As the weather clears, egg prices will enter a seasonal upward channel, but high inventory may limit the rebound [9] Group 6: Apples Price Data - From July 8 - 14, 2025, the price of Shandong 80 first - and second - grade apples remained unchanged. The national inventory increased by 6, Shandong inventory increased by 11, and Shaanxi inventory decreased by 24 [11][12] Market Analysis - In the new production season, apple bagging has ended in various regions. Western regions may see increased yield but have serious tree - felling problems, and Shandong is expected to have a 20% reduction. National production may not differ much from last year. Consumption is in the off - season, with the lowest inventory in five years and slower de - stocking recently. Spot prices have risen significantly, and seasonal fruits are squeezing apples' market share [12] Group 7: Pigs Price Data - From July 8 - 14, 2025, pig prices in Henan Kaifeng, Hubei Xiangyang, Shandong Linyi, Anhui Hefei, and Jiangsu Nantong decreased by 0.10, 0.15, 0.05, 0.25, and 0.20 respectively. The basis decreased by 40 [12] Market Analysis - Pig production capacity reduction is limited, and long - term supply pressure remains. In the medium - term, price rebounds are not conducive to capacity and inventory reduction. Futures prices have risen on expectations of seasonal rebounds and policies, but need spot price verification. Spot price rebounds are temporarily blocked, and the de - stocking path is crucial [12]