交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 PTA&MEG早报-2025年5月27日 大越期货投资咨询部 金泽彬 投资咨询资格证号：Z0015557 联系方式：0575-85226759 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投资建议。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 CONTENTS 目 录 1 前日回顾 2 每日提示 3 4 今日关注 基本面数据 5 PTA： 1、基本面：今日PTA期货高开低走，现货市场商谈氛围一般，贸易商商谈为主，个别聚酯工厂有递盘，现货基差走强。个别主 流供应商出远期货源。5月主港在09升水165~170附近成交，价格商谈区间在4875~4950附近。6月中上09+170~180附近有成交。7 月中上在09+110有成交。今日主流现货基差在09+168。中性 2、基差：现货4913，09合约基差189，盘面贴水 偏多 3、库存：PTA工厂库存4.15天，环比减少0.13天 偏多 4、盘面：20日均线向上，收盘价收于20日均线之上 偏多 5、主力持仓：净多 空增 偏多 6、预期 ...

交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 PTA&MEG早报-2025年5月22日 大越期货投资咨询部 金泽彬 投资咨询资格证号：Z0015557 联系方式：0575-85226759 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投资建议。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 CONTENTS 目 录 1 前日回顾 2 每日提示 3 4 今日关注 基本面数据 5 PTA 每日观点 PTA： 6、预期：前期聚酯产销放量后，聚酯工厂库存压力不大，聚酯大厂表态减产保价，而从PTA自身来看，5月下装置陆续重启，而 后期PTA检修计划尚未明确，供应端有恢复预期，缓解流通性，日内PTA基差快速回落。关注后期聚酯工厂减产落实情况。 1、基本面：昨日PTA期货震荡上行，现货市场商谈氛围一般，现货基差企稳。贸易商商谈为主，5月货在09升水120~130附近成 交，个别略高，价格商谈区间在4855~4935附近。6月主港在09升水120~140有成交。今日主流现货基差在09+126。中性 2、基差：现货4905，09合约基差11 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Core Views of the Report PTA - Yesterday, PTA futures fluctuated and declined, with a weaker negotiation atmosphere in the spot market and a rapid drop in spot basis. The basis for May goods dropped from 09+150~160 to 09+100~110, and the price negotiation range was around 4805~4895. The mainstream spot basis today is 09+126. The overall situation is neutral. The main positions are net short with an increase in short positions, showing a bearish tendency. After the previous sales volume of polyester increased, the inventory pressure of polyester factories is not large. Polyester giants have stated their intention to cut production to maintain prices. From the perspective of PTA itself, the devices will gradually restart in mid-May, and the future PTA maintenance plan is not clear yet. The supply side is expected to recover, which will ease the liquidity. The PTA basis dropped rapidly during the day. Attention should be paid to the implementation of production cuts by polyester factories in the future [6]. MEG - On Tuesday, the price center of ethylene glycol (MEG) declined weakly, and the basis also weakened. The night - session of MEG opened lower and adjusted, with the spot transaction at a premium of 100 - 105 yuan/ton over the 09 contract. In the morning, the MEG market continued to be weak. Affected by the intention of polyester production cuts, the demand side is expected to decline. In the afternoon, the spot basis weakened further, and the spot was traded at a premium of about 85 yuan/ton over the 09 contract at the end of the session. In the foreign market, the price center of MEG declined weakly, with the mainstream negotiation of recent shipments at around 522 - 528 US dollars/ton, and the recent shipments were traded at around 527 US dollars/ton during the day, with weak buying sentiment in the market. The overall situation is neutral. The main positions are net short with a decrease in short positions, showing a bearish tendency. Due to the unexpected supply loss of ethylene glycol and the high load of polyester, the ethylene glycol market will continue to destock from May to July, with a total destocking volume of over 500,000 tons. However, in the early stage of destocking, the hidden inventory is mainly digested, and the decline rate of port inventory is slow. In addition, affected by the news of polyester factory production cuts, the market sentiment is cautious. The short - term ethylene glycol market will mainly undergo wide - range adjustments. In the future, attention should be paid to the change in polyester load. Under the background of continuous destocking in June - July, the liquidity may still tighten [8][9]. Influencing Factors - Positive factors: The maintenance season of raw materials such as PTA and ethylene glycol (e.g., the maintenance of Zhejiang Petrochemical and Jiujiang Petrochemical) has led to a contraction in supply. The destocking expectation in the second quarter exceeds 500,000 tons, which supports the price rebound [10]. - Negative factors: The EU's Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism (CBAM) started to levy taxes on polyester products in 2025, increasing the export cost by 8% - 12%. Enterprises need to accelerate the layout of production capacity in Southeast Asia. The average domestic polyester operating rate is 85%, and some small and medium - sized enterprises have an operating rate of less than 70%. The overcapacity of low - end production has led to fierce price competition, and the inventory days of filament and staple fiber are approaching historical highs [11]. Current Logic and Risk Points - In the short term, the commodity market is greatly affected by the macro - environment, and there is still an expectation of inventory accumulation at the raw material end. After the market rebounds, attention should be paid to the upper resistance level [12]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 Previous Day's Review - No relevant content provided 3.2 Daily Tips - No relevant content provided 3.3 Today's Focus - No relevant content provided 3.4 Fundamental Data PTA - **Price and Basis**: The spot price is 4855 yuan/ton, and the 09 contract basis is 123, indicating that the futures price is at a discount to the spot price, which is a bullish signal. The PTA processing fee decreased by 137.24 yuan/ton to 282.99 yuan/ton [7][15]. - **Inventory**: The PTA factory inventory is 4.28 days, a decrease of 0.23 days compared with the previous period, which is a bullish signal [7]. - **Market Trend**: The 20 - day moving average is upward, and the closing price is above the 20 - day moving average, which is a bullish signal [7]. - **Supply - Demand Balance Table**: The table shows the PTA production capacity, load, output, import, export, and consumption from 2024 to 2025, as well as the changes in inventory and the supply - demand gap [13]. MEG - **Price and Basis**: The spot price is 4510 yuan/ton, and the 09 contract basis is 97, indicating that the futures price is at a discount to the spot price, which is a bullish signal. The profit of naphtha - based MEG in the domestic market decreased by 105.035 yuan/ton to - 952.42 yuan/ton; the profit of ethylene - sourced MEG in the domestic market decreased by 75.836 yuan/ton to - 511.19 yuan/ton; the profit of methanol - sourced MEG in the domestic market decreased by 215.38 yuan/ton to - 1131.28 yuan/ton; the profit of coal - based MEG decreased by 16.5 yuan/ton to - 894 yuan/ton [9][15]. - **Inventory**: The total inventory in East China is 668,800 tons, a decrease of 22,600 tons compared with the previous period, which is a bullish signal [9]. - **Market Trend**: The 20 - day moving average is upward, and the closing price is above the 20 - day moving average, which is a bullish signal [9]. - **Supply - Demand Balance Table**: The table shows the MEG operating rate, production, import, export, and consumption from 2024 to 2025, as well as the changes in port inventory and the supply - demand gap [14]. Other Products - The prices and price changes of various products such as naphtha, p - xylene, polyester filament, and polyester staple fiber are provided, as well as the basis and profit changes of PTA and MEG futures [15].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided on the industry investment rating in the report 2. Core Viewpoints - For PTA, in the short - term, polyester inventory is transferred downward, the load is maintained under the relief of polyester inventory pressure. PTA is in the de - stocking cycle with relatively tight liquidity. Due to tariff adjustment, terminal orders have improved month - on - month, boosting market sentiment, and the basis is expected to be strong in the short - term. Attention should be paid to the implementation of later device maintenance under the expectation of improved processing margins and terminal order situations [6] - For MEG, the recent significant increase in the number of warehouse receipts has tightened the spot liquidity of ethylene glycol. It is expected that the spot basis will still run strongly. The high polyester load in May provides strong rigid support for ethylene glycol, and the de - stocking amplitude in May is considerable. The Sino - US Geneva economic and trade joint statement has boosted market confidence, and the price center of ethylene glycol is expected to run strongly in the short - term. Follow - up attention should be paid to the continuous development of tariff issues and the trading situation of US ethylene glycol [8] 3. Summary by Directory 3.1. Previous Day Review - No information provided 3.2. Daily Tips - **PTA**: Yesterday, PTA futures fluctuated and closed down. The spot market negotiation atmosphere was fair, and the spot basis strengthened and then loosened slightly. Traders were the main participants in the negotiation. Some polyester factories bought goods. The mainstream price in the main port in May was around 09 + 200, with some slightly higher. In the afternoon, the spot basis loosened, and a small amount was traded around 09 + 190 - 195, with the price negotiation range around 4955 - 5035. The mainstream price in June was traded at 09 + 180 - 190. Today's mainstream spot basis is 09 + 198 [6] - **MEG**: On Monday, the price center of ethylene glycol fluctuated and weakened, and the basis fluctuated and strengthened. In the morning, ethylene glycol was mainly in a narrow consolidation, and the buying sentiment in the market was fair. In the afternoon, affected by the news of polyester factory production cuts, the futures price dropped slightly. The low - level spot basis was negotiated and traded at a premium of 97 - 103 yuan/ton to the 09 contract. In terms of US dollars, the external price center of ethylene glycol fluctuated and weakened. There were few offers for spot cargoes during the day. In the morning, the bid for recent spot cargoes was around 532 US dollars/ton, and in the afternoon, the negotiation center dropped to below 530 US dollars/ton. A proper amount of ocean - going cargoes was traded around 528 - 529 US dollars/ton. There was a Taiwan tender cargo traded at around 535 US dollars/ton, with a cargo volume of 5000 tons [8] 3.3. Today's Focus - No information provided 3.4. Fundamental Data - **PTA**: The spot price is 4995, the basis of the 09 contract is 219, and the futures price is at a discount, which is bullish. The PTA factory inventory is 4.28 days, a decrease of 0.23 days compared with the previous period, which is bullish. The 20 - day moving average is upward, and the closing price is above the 20 - day moving average, which is bullish. The net short position of the main contract is decreasing, which is bearish [6] - **MEG**: The spot price is 4573, the basis of the 09 contract is 98, and the futures price is at a discount, which is bullish. The total inventory in the East China region is 66.88 tons, a decrease of 2.26 tons compared with the previous period, which is bullish. The 20 - day moving average is upward, and the closing price is above the 20 - day moving average, which is bullish. The net short position of the main contract is decreasing, which is bearish [8][9] 3.5. Impact Factor Summary - **Likely to be Bullish**: The maintenance season of raw materials such as PTA and ethylene glycol (e.g., the maintenance of Zhejiang Petrochemical and Jiujiang Petrochemical) has led to a contraction in supply. The de - stocking expectation in the second quarter exceeds 500,000 tons, which supports the price rebound [10] - **Likely to be Bearish**: The EU Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism (CBAM) has imposed taxes on polyester products since 2025, increasing the export cost by 8% - 12%. Enterprises need to accelerate the layout of production capacity in Southeast Asia. The average domestic polyester operating rate is 85%, and some small and medium - sized enterprises are below 70%. The over - capacity of low - end products has led to fierce price competition, and the inventory days of filament and staple fiber are approaching historical highs [11] 3.6. Current Main Logic and Risk Points - In the short - term, the commodity market is greatly affected by the macro - level, and the expectation of raw material inventory accumulation still exists. After the futures price rebounds, attention should be paid to the upper resistance level [12] 3.7. Supply - Demand Balance Sheets - **PTA Supply - Demand Balance Sheet**: It shows the PTA production capacity, production, import, total supply, polyester production, consumption, and inventory from January 2024 to December 2025, as well as the year - on - year changes and supply - demand gaps [13] - **Ethylene Glycol Supply - Demand Balance Sheet**: It shows the ethylene glycol operating rate, production, import, total supply, polyester production, consumption, and port inventory from January 2024 to December 2025, as well as the year - on - year changes and supply - demand gaps [14] 3.8. Price Charts - Include bottle - chip spot price, bottle - chip production profit, bottle - chip capacity utilization rate, bottle - chip inventory, PTA basis, MEG inter - month spread, MEG basis, spot spread, etc., from 2020 - 2025 [16][19][23][24][29][32][36][39] 3.9. Inventory Analysis - Include PTA factory inventory, MEG port inventory, PET chip factory inventory, and polyester fiber inventory, from 2021 - 2025 [42][43][44][47] 3.10. Polyester Upstream and Downstream Operating Rates - **Upstream**: Include the operating rates of purified terephthalic acid, p - xylene, and ethylene glycol from 2020 - 2025 [53][54][55] - **Downstream**: Include the operating rates of polyester factories and Jiangsu and Zhejiang looms from 2020 - 2025 [57][58][59] 3.11. Profit Analysis - Include PTA processing fees, MEG production profits from different production methods, and production profits of polyester fiber short - fiber and long - fiber from 2022 - 2025 [61][64][67]

交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 PTA&MEG早报-2025年5月19日 大越期货投资咨询部 金泽彬 投资咨询资格证号：Z0015557 联系方式：0575-85226759 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投资建议。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 CONTENTS 目 录 1、基本面：周五，贸易商商谈为主，个别聚酯工厂有递盘，5月主流在09+185~205附近成交，个别略高，价格商谈区间在 4955~5025附近。6月在09+160~170有成交。今日主流现货基差在09+192。中性 2、基差：现货4990，09合约基差221，盘面贴水 偏多 3、库存：PTA工厂库存4.28天，环比减少0.23天 偏多 4、盘面：20日均线向上，收盘价收于20日均线之上 偏多 5、主力持仓：净空 空增 偏空 MEG 每日观点 1 前日回顾 2 每日提示 3 4 今日关注 基本面数据 5 PTA 每日观点 PTA： 6、预期：短期内聚酯库存向下转移，聚酯库存压力缓解下，负荷维持，PTA供需去库周期 ...

大越期货投资咨询部 金泽彬 投资咨询资格证号：Z0015557 联系方式：0575-85226759 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投资建议。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 PTA&MEG早报-2025年5月16日 CONTENTS 目 录 1 前日回顾 2 每日提示 3 4 今日关注 基本面数据 5 PTA 每日观点 PTA： 1、基本面：昨日PTA期货震荡收跌，现货市场商谈氛围较昨天转淡，现货基差回落。个别聚酯工厂补货，5月主港在09升水 200~215附近成交，个别略低，价格商谈区间在4980~5080附近。6月货在09+165~180附近有成交。今日主流现货基差在09+205。 中性 5、主力持仓：净空 空减 偏空 6、预期：短期内聚酯库存向下转移，聚酯库存压力缓解下，负荷维持，PTA供需去库周期中流通性相对偏紧，加上近期由于 关税调整，终端订单环比改善，市场心态提振，短期内基差偏强。关注加工差好转预期下后期装置的检修兑现情况，以及终 端订 ...

交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 PTA&MEG早报-2025年5月15日 大越期货投资咨询部 金泽彬 投资咨询资格证号：Z0015557 联系方式：0575-85226759 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投资建议。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 CONTENTS 目 录 1 前日回顾 2 每日提示 3 4 今日关注 基本面数据 5 PTA 每日观点 PTA： 5、主力持仓：净空 空减 偏空 6、预期：短期内聚酯库存向下转移，聚酯库存压力缓解下，负荷维持，PTA供需去库周期中流通性相对偏紧，加上近期由于 关税调整，终端订单环比改善，市场心态提振，短期内基差偏强。关注加工差好转预期下后期装置的检修兑现情况，以及终 端订单情况。 1、基本面：昨日PTA期货震荡上涨，现货市场商谈氛围尚可，日内消息面较多，近期价格上涨以及加工差修复，个别装置检 修计划可能延后，另外下午聚酯大厂对部分亏损产品规划减产，贸易商获利了结心态，且主流供应商也有在出5月货源，现货 基差涨后回落，贸易商商谈为主。个 ...

交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 PTA&MEG早报-2025年5月13日 大越期货投资咨询部 金泽彬 投资咨询资格证号：Z0015557 联系方式：0575-85226759 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投资建议。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 CONTENTS 目 录 1 前日回顾 2 每日提示 3 4 今日关注 基本面数据 5 PTA 每日观点 影响因素总结 利多： 1、PTA、乙二醇等原料检修季（如浙石化、九江石化检修）导致供应收缩，二季度去库预期超50万吨，支撑价格反弹。 PTA： 1、基本面：昨日PTA期货震荡上涨，现货市场商谈氛围一般，上午商谈集中，下午走淡，现货基差走强。个别主流供应商出 货，5月主港在09升水165~180成交，少量宁波在09升水190有成交，价格商谈区间在4785~4890附近。6月中上主港在09升水 110~115有成交。今日主流现货基差在09+175。中性 2、基差：现货4810，09合约基差100，盘面贴水 偏多 3、库存：PTA工厂库存 ...

交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 PTA&MEG早报-2025年5月12日 大越期货投资咨询部 金泽彬 投资咨询资格证号：Z0015557 联系方式：0575-85226759 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投资建议。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 CONTENTS 目 录 1 前日回顾 2 每日提示 3 4 今日关注 基本面数据 5 PTA 每日观点 PTA： 1、基本面：周五，贸易商商谈为主，个别主流供应商出货，5月主流在09+145~150成交，个别略低在09+140附近，少量略高 在09+155~165附近，价格商谈区间在4695~4740附近。6月中上主港在09+100~110有成交。今日主流现货基差在09+149。中性 2、基差：现货4720，09合约基差138，盘面贴水 偏多 3、库存：PTA工厂库存4.51天，环比增加0.08天 偏空 4、盘面：20日均线向上，收盘价收于20日均线之上 偏多 5、主力持仓：净空 空减 偏空 6、预期：近期PTA部分装置陆续落实检修， ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided in the content. 2. Core Views of the Report - PTA: Recently, some PTA plants have successively carried out maintenance. With the relatively strong downstream polyester load, the de - stocking of PTA itself is quite significant. In the short term, the spot price of PTA will mainly fluctuate following the cost side. The future operation depends on the changes of upstream and downstream plants [6]. - MEG: In May, the arrival of foreign MEG vessels is expected to be low, and the de - stocking of social inventory will be reflected in port inventory. Considering the May - September spread, the spot basis will remain strong in the short term. After the significant decline in crude oil prices during the May Day holiday, the cost support is weak, and the absolute price of MEG is expected to trade in a low - range. The follow - up of polyester downstream orders and the operating load of the terminal sector need to be continuously monitored [7]. - Influencing factors: The maintenance season of raw materials such as PTA and MEG leads to supply contraction, with a de - stocking expectation of over 500,000 tons in the second quarter, which supports price rebound. However, the EU's Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism (CBAM) will levy taxes on polyester products starting in 2025, increasing export costs by 8% - 12%. The average domestic polyester operating rate is 85%, with some small and medium - sized enterprises below 70%, and the inventory days of filament and staple fiber are approaching historical highs [8][9]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Previous Day Review - No information provided in the content. 3.2 Daily Tips - PTA: The PTA futures fluctuated and rose yesterday. The spot market negotiation atmosphere improved, and the spot basis strengthened in the afternoon. The mainstream spot basis is now at 09 + 120. The PTA factory inventory is 4.51 days, a week - on - week increase of 0.08 days. The 20 - day moving average is upward, and the closing price is above the 20 - day moving average. The net short position of the main contract decreased [6]. - MEG: On Thursday, the MEG futures rebounded after hitting a low, and the spot market was reluctant to sell. Driven by the news of the upward revision of polyester load, the average load in May is expected to reach around 94.5%, and the demand support exceeded expectations. The MEG futures strengthened, and the spot basis continued to strengthen. The inventory in East China is 691,400 tons, a week - on - week increase of 400 tons. The 20 - day moving average is upward, and the closing price is above the 20 - day moving average. The net short position of the main contract increased [7]. 3.3 Today's Focus - No information provided in the content. 3.4 Fundamental Data - PTA Supply - Demand Balance Sheet: It shows the PTA production capacity, load, output, import, total supply, polyester production capacity, load, output, PTA consumption, total demand, and ending inventory from January 2024 to December 2025 [11]. - MEG Supply - Demand Balance Sheet: It presents the MEG total operating rate, production, import, total supply, polyester production capacity, operating rate, output, MEG consumption, total demand, and port inventory from January 2024 to December 2025 [12]. - Price - related Charts: Include bottle - chip spot price, production profit, capacity utilization, inventory, PTA and MEG basis, inter - month spread, spot spread, and inventory analysis of related products from 2020 - 2025 [14][27][30][37][40]. - Operating Rate Charts: Show the operating rates of polyester upstream (PTA, p - xylene, MEG) and downstream (polyester factories, Jiangsu and Zhejiang looms) from 2020 - 2025 [51][55]. - Profit Charts: Display the production profits of PTA, MEG (different production methods), polyester fiber short - fiber, and polyester fiber long - filament from 2022 - 2025 [59][62][65].