重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投资建议。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 PTA&MEG早报-2025年6月13日 大越期货投资咨询部 金泽彬 投资咨询资格证号：Z0015557 联系方式：0575-85226759 CONTENTS 目 录 交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 1 前日回顾 2 每日提示 3 4 今日关注 基本面数据 5 PTA 每日观点 PTA： 1、基本面：昨日PTA期货震荡收涨，现货市场商谈氛围尚可，现货基差偏强，个别聚酯供应商有递盘。个别主流供应商出7月货 源。本周及下周货在09+215~230有成交，价格商谈区间在4810~4900附近。6月底主港在09+210有成交。7月货在09+150~165有成 交。今日主流现货基差在09+220。中性 2、基差：现货4855，09合约基差235，盘面贴水 偏多 3、库存：PTA工厂库存4.03天，环比增加0.01天 偏空 4、盘面：20日均线向下，收盘价收于20日均线之下 偏空 5、主力持仓：净多 多减 偏多 6、预 ...

交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 PTA&MEG早报-2025年6月12日 大越期货投资咨询部 金泽彬 投资咨询资格证号：Z0015557 联系方式：0575-85226759 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投资建议。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 CONTENTS 目 录 1 前日回顾 2 每日提示 3 4 今日关注 基本面数据 5 PTA 每日观点 PTA： 1、基本面：昨日PTA期货震荡偏弱，现货市场商谈氛围尚可，现货基差偏强，少量聚酯工厂买盘。个别主流供应商出7月货，日 内7月商谈增多。6月货本周及下周货在215~230有成交，个别略低在09+210附近，价格商谈区间在4785~4870附近。7月货在 09+150~160有成交。今日主流现货基差在09+218。中性 2、基差：现货4820，09合约基差200，盘面贴水 偏多 3、库存：PTA工厂库存4.02天，环比减少0.07天 偏多 4、盘面：20日均线向下，收盘价收于20日均线之下 偏空 5、主力持仓：净多 多减 偏多 ...

交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 PTA&MEG早报-2025年6月10日 大越期货投资咨询部 金泽彬 投资咨询资格证号：Z0015557 联系方式：0575-85226759 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投资建议。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 CONTENTS 目 录 1 前日回顾 2 每日提示 3 4 今日关注 基本面数据 5 PTA 每日观点 PTA： 5、主力持仓：净多 多增 偏多 6、预期：本周乙二醇船只入库尚可，预计下周初港口库存持稳或小降为主，关注周末港口出货情况。月内乙二醇供需结构依旧 表现良性，但是仓单陆续注销流出后场内可流转现货将得到一定补充。中旬起合成气制乙二醇负荷也可表现提升。短期内乙二 醇价格区间调整为主，流动性增加以及需求偏弱影响下上方将表现承压，后续关注聚酯产销情况以及乙二醇大装置重启进度。 1、基本面：昨日PTA期货震荡下跌，现货市场商谈氛围尚可，现货基差波动，聚酯工厂买盘增多。本周货在09+200~225有成交， 个别略高，聚酯工厂买盘为主，下 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content Core Viewpoints - For PTA, the expected port inventory of ethylene glycol is likely to remain stable or slightly decrease early next week, with the supply - demand structure remaining favorable this month. However, the inflow of cancelled warehouse receipts will supplement the available spot, and the load of syngas - based ethylene glycol may increase from the middle of the month. In the short term, the ethylene glycol price will be adjusted within a range, facing upward pressure due to increased liquidity and weak demand. Attention should be paid to polyester sales and the restart progress of major ethylene glycol plants. The PTA market shows a neutral fundamental situation, with a positive bias in terms of basis, inventory, disk performance, and main - contract holdings [6][7]. - For MEG, on Friday, the price center of ethylene glycol declined weakly, and the market negotiation was average. The intraday disk was weak, and the spot basis was at a low level. It is expected that the port inventory will decrease significantly after the Dragon Boat Festival, and the available spot in June will still be tight, with the spot basis remaining strong. The medium - and short - term supply - demand structure is favorable, supporting the price. Attention should be paid to the change in polyester load. The fundamental situation is neutral, with a positive bias in basis and disk performance, and a negative bias in inventory and main - contract holdings [8][9]. - The raw material maintenance season of PTA and ethylene glycol has led to supply contraction, with a de - stocking expectation of over 500,000 tons in the second quarter, which supports price rebound. However, the EU's Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism (CBAM) has imposed taxes on polyester products since 2025, increasing export costs by 8% - 12%, and domestic polyester has issues such as low average operating rates in some small and medium - sized enterprises, over - capacity of low - end products, and high inventory levels of filaments and staple fibers [10][11]. Summary by Directory 1. Previous Day's Review - Not provided in the given content 2. Daily Tips - **PTA Daily Viewpoint** - Fundamental: On Friday, the main port transactions in mid - and late June were at 09 + 220~230, with prices around 4850 - 4940. The mainstream spot basis was 09 + 225 [7]. - Basis: The spot price was 4897, and the 09 - contract basis was 245, with the futures price at a discount [7]. - Inventory: PTA factory inventory was 4.02 days, a decrease of 0.07 days compared to the previous period [7]. - Disk: The 20 - day moving average was upward, and the closing price was below the 20 - day moving average [7]. - Main - contract Holdings: Net long positions increased [7]. - **MEG Daily Viewpoint** - Fundamental: On Friday, the price center of ethylene glycol declined weakly, and the market negotiation was average. The intraday disk was weak, and the spot basis was at a low level, with some traders participating in buying at night [8]. - Basis: The spot price was 4400, and the 09 - contract basis was 139, with the futures price at a discount [9]. - Inventory: The total inventory in East China was 597,000 tons, an increase of 23,300 tons compared to the previous period [9]. - Disk: The 20 - day moving average was upward, and the closing price was below the 20 - day moving average [9]. - Main - contract Holdings: Net short positions increased [8] 3. Today's Focus - **Influencing Factors Summary** - **Likely to be Bullish**: The raw material maintenance season of PTA and ethylene glycol has led to supply contraction, with a de - stocking expectation of over 500,000 tons in the second quarter, which supports price rebound [10]. - **Likely to be Bearish**: The EU's Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism (CBAM) has imposed taxes on polyester products since 2025, increasing export costs by 8% - 12%. Domestic polyester has an average operating rate of 85%, with some small and medium - sized enterprises having an operating rate of less than 70%. Low - end over - capacity has led to fierce price competition, and the inventory days of filaments and staple fibers are approaching historical highs [11]. - **Current Main Logic and Risk Points**: The short - term commodity market is greatly affected by the macro - level, and there is still an expectation of raw material inventory accumulation. Attention should be paid to the upper resistance level after the disk rebounds [12] 4. Fundamental Data - **PTA Supply - Demand Balance Sheet**: It details the PTA production capacity, load, output, import, supply, polyester production capacity, load, output, PTA consumption, demand, export, and inventory from January 2024 to December 2025 [13]. - **Ethylene Glycol Supply - Demand Balance Sheet**: It shows the total operating rate, production, new capacity, supply, polyester production capacity, load, output, ethylene glycol consumption, demand, port inventory, and inventory change of ethylene glycol from January 2024 to December 2025 [14]. - **Price Data**: It includes the spot price of bottle chips, production profit, capacity utilization rate, inventory, PTA basis, MEG inter - month spread, basis, spot spread, and other price - related data from 2019 to 2025 [16][19][23][26][32][39] - **Inventory Analysis**: It presents the inventory data of PTA, MEG, PET chips, polyester fibers (short - fiber, DTY, FDY, POY), and other products from 2021 to 2025 [42][44][47] - **Polyester Upstream and Downstream Operating Rates**: It shows the operating rates of PTA, paraxylene, ethylene glycol, polyester factories, and Jiangsu - Zhejiang looms from 2020 to 2025 [53][57] - **Profit Data**: It includes the processing fee of PTA, production profit of MEG (methanol - based, coal - based syngas, naphtha - integrated, ethylene - based), and production profit of polyester fibers (short - fiber, DTY, POY, FDY) from 2022 to 2025 [61][64][67]

PTA&MEG早报-2025年6月6日 大越期货投资咨询部 金泽彬 投资咨询资格证号：Z0015557 联系方式：0575-85226759 交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投资建议。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 CONTENTS 目 录 1 前日回顾 2 每日提示 3 4 今日关注 基本面数据 5 PTA 每日观点 PTA： 1、基本面：昨日PTA期货震荡收跌，现货市场商谈氛围一般，现货基差反弹。贸易商商谈为主，个别聚酯工厂补货。本周及下 周货在09+200~240有成交，价格商谈区间在4810~4875附近。6月下在09+180~195有成交，个别略高。7月中主港货在09+130附近 有成交。今日主流现货基差在09+216。中性 2、基差：现货4836，09合约基差192，盘面贴水 偏多 3、库存：PTA工厂库存4.02天，环比减少0.07天 偏多 4、盘面：20日均线向上，收盘价收于20日均线之下 偏多 5、主力持仓：净多 多减 偏多 6、预 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content. 2. Core Views of the Report - PTA: The PTA futures fluctuated and closed lower yesterday. The spot market negotiation atmosphere was average, and the spot basis weakened. The PTA supply - demand pattern is acceptable, and the spot market liquidity is tight after continuous destocking. However, downstream polyester factories are reducing production, so the PTA spot price is expected to fluctuate within a range following the cost side in the short - term, and the spot basis will remain strong [5]. - MEG: The price center of ethylene glycol adjusted weakly on Wednesday. The market negotiation was acceptable. The spot basis weakened in the morning and then recovered in the afternoon. It is expected that the port inventory will decline significantly after the Dragon Boat Festival, and the available spot in June will still be tight. The supply - demand structure of ethylene glycol is benign in the medium - and short - term, which will support the price [7]. - Influencing factors: The maintenance season of raw materials such as PTA and ethylene glycol has led to supply contraction, with a destocking expectation of over 500,000 tons in the second quarter, supporting price rebounds. However, the EU's Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism (CBAM) will levy taxes on polyester products starting in 2025, increasing export costs by 8% - 12%. The domestic polyester average operating rate is 85%, and some small and medium - sized enterprises are below 70%, with over - capacity of low - end products leading to intense price competition and high inventory levels for filaments and staple fibers [9][10]. 3. Summary According to the Table of Contents 3.1 Previous Day's Review - Not provided in the given content. 3.2 Daily Tips - PTA: The spot price was 4,870, the basis of the 09 contract was 200, and the futures was at a discount. The PTA factory inventory was 4.09 days, a decrease of 0.06 days compared to the previous period. The 20 - day moving average was upward, but the closing price was below the 20 - day moving average. The main position was net long, with long positions decreasing [5]. - MEG: The spot price was 4,415, the basis of the 09 contract was 123, and the futures was at a discount. The total inventory in the East China region was 573,700 tons, a decrease of 66,500 tons compared to the previous period. The 20 - day moving average was upward, but the closing price was below the 20 - day moving average. The main position was net short, with short positions increasing [7][8]. 3.3 Today's Focus - Not provided in the given content. 3.4 Fundamental Data - PTA Supply - Demand Balance Sheet: It shows the data of PTA production capacity, production, import, supply, polyester production, consumption, and inventory from January 2024 to December 2025 [12]. - Ethylene Glycol Supply - Demand Balance Sheet: It presents the data of ethylene glycol's total operating rate, production, import, supply, polyester production, consumption, and port inventory from January 2024 to December 2025 [13]. 3.5 Price - It includes the spot price of bottle chips, production profit, capacity utilization, inventory, PTA basis, MEG basis, and various spread data from 2020 to 2025, with data sources from Wind, Mysteel, and CCF [15][18][22][23][28][35]. 3.6 Inventory Analysis - It shows the inventory data of PTA, MEG, PET slices, and various types of polyester fibers from 2020 to 2025, with data sources from Wind [41]. 3.7 Polyester Upstream Start - up - It includes the start - up rate data of PTA, p - xylene, and ethylene glycol from 2020 to 2025 [52]. 3.8 Polyester Downstream Start - up - It presents the start - up rate data of polyester factories and Jiangsu - Zhejiang looms from 2020 to 2025 [56]. 3.9 Processing Fees and Profits - PTA Processing Fees: It shows the PTA processing fee data from 2022 to 2025, with data sources from Wind [60]. - MEG Profits: It includes the production profit data of different production methods of ethylene glycol (methanol - based, coal - based, naphtha - integrated, and ethylene - based) from 2022 to 2025, with data sources from Wind and Mysteel [63]. - Polyester Fiber Profits: It shows the production profit data of polyester fiber short - staple, DTY, POY, and FDY from 2022 to 2025, with data sources from Wind [66].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content Core Viewpoints - The short - term commodity market is greatly affected by the macro - level, and there is still an expectation of raw material inventory accumulation. After the market rebounds, attention should be paid to the upper resistance level [10]. - The maintenance season of raw materials such as PTA and ethylene glycol has led to supply contraction, with an expected inventory reduction of over 500,000 tons in the second quarter, which supports price rebounds [8]. - The EU's Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism (CBAM) has imposed taxes on polyester products since 2025, increasing export costs by 8% - 12%. Enterprises need to accelerate the layout of production capacity in Southeast Asia. The average domestic polyester operating rate is 85%, with some small and medium - sized enterprises below 70%. Low - end overcapacity has led to fierce price competition, and the inventory days of filaments and staple fibers are approaching historical highs [9]. Summary by Directory 1.前日回顾 - Not provided in the given content 2.每日提示 PTA - **Fundamentals**: PTA futures fluctuated and declined yesterday. The spot market negotiation atmosphere was average, and the spot basis declined. The negotiation was mainly among traders, with individual polyester factories making bids. The main port in mid - and late June was traded at 09 + 200 - 210, and the price negotiation range was around 4,830 - 5,000. The warehouse receipts this week were traded at 09 + 220. Today's mainstream spot basis is 09 + 207 [5]. - **Basis**: The spot price is 4,905, the basis of the 09 contract is 277, and the futures price is at a discount, which is bullish [5]. - **Inventory**: The PTA factory inventory is 4.09 days, a decrease of 0.06 days compared to the previous period, which is bullish [5]. - **Market trend**: The 20 - day moving average is upward, and the closing price is below the 20 - day moving average, which is bullish [5]. - **Main positions**: The net long positions are decreasing, which is bullish [5]. - **Expectation**: Last week, PTA device maintenance and restart were concurrent. The supply - demand pattern of PTA itself is acceptable. After continuous inventory reduction in the early stage, the current spot market liquidity is tight, and the spot basis is running strongly. However, downstream polyester factories are reducing production and load. It is expected that the PTA spot price will fluctuate within a range following the cost side in the short term, and the spot basis will remain strong. Attention should be paid to the impact of the OPEC + meeting results on oil prices and changes in polyester devices [5]. MEG - **Fundamentals**: On Tuesday, the price center of ethylene glycol declined weakly, and the market negotiation was average. Today, the explicit inventory of ethylene glycol decreased significantly, basically in line with market expectations. In the morning, the price center of ethylene glycol adjusted weakly, and the buying sentiment in the market was average. In the afternoon, the spot basis weakened significantly, and the low - end transactions at the end of the session reached around 138 - 140 yuan/ton, with an increase in low - end trading volume. In terms of US dollars, the external price center of ethylene glycol declined weakly. In the afternoon, the negotiation center of recent shipments fell to around 520 - 521 US dollars/ton, and the negotiation for shipments in late June and early July was at 516 - 518 US dollars/ton, with weak market negotiation [7]. - **Basis**: The spot price is 4,478, the basis of the 09 contract is 172, and the futures price is at a discount, which is bullish [7]. - **Inventory**: The total inventory in East China is 573,700 tons, a decrease of 66,500 tons compared to the previous period, which is bullish [7]. - **Market trend**: The 20 - day moving average is upward, and the closing price is below the 20 - day moving average, which is bullish [7]. - **Main positions**: The main net short positions are decreasing, which is bearish [7]. - **Expectation**: Last week, the shipping efficiency of ethylene glycol ports was acceptable. Combined with the small number of foreign arrivals during the week, it is expected that the port inventory will decrease significantly after the Dragon Boat Festival. The inventory of mainstream trading tanks in Zhangjiagang is likely to fall below 200,000 tons. The tradable spot of ethylene glycol in June is still in short supply, and the spot basis will mainly maintain a strong operation. In the future, attention should be paid to the outflow of warehouse receipts. The supply - demand structure of ethylene glycol is benign in the medium and short term, which supports the price of ethylene glycol. In the future, attention should be paid to changes in polyester load [7]. 3.今日关注 - Not provided in the given content 4.基本面数据 PTA Supply - Demand Balance Sheet - It shows the PTA production capacity, production capacity increment, load, output, import, total supply, supply year - on - year change, polyester production capacity, new polyester production capacity, polyester load, polyester output, PTA consumption by polyester, other PTA demand, PTA export, total PTA demand, demand year - on - year change, PTA ending inventory, inventory change, inventory - consumption ratio, and supply - demand gap from January 2024 to December 2025 [11]. Ethylene Glycol Supply - Demand Balance Sheet - It shows the total ethylene glycol operating rate, total production, new production capacity, production, import, total supply, supply year - on - year change, polyester production capacity, new polyester production capacity, polyester operating rate, polyester output, ethylene glycol consumption by polyester, other ethylene glycol consumption, ethylene glycol export, total ethylene glycol demand, demand year - on - year change, ethylene glycol port inventory, port inventory change, inventory - consumption ratio, and supply - demand gap from January 2024 to December 2025 [12]. Other Data Presented - **Price - related data**: Include bottle - chip spot price, bottle - chip production profit, bottle - chip capacity utilization rate, bottle - chip inventory, PTA basis, MEG month - to - month spread, MEG basis, spot spread, etc., with data sources from Wind, Mysteel, and CCF [13][14][27] - **Inventory - related data**: Include PTA factory inventory, MEG port inventory, PET slice factory inventory, polyester fiber inventory in Jiangsu and Zhejiang weaving machines, etc., with data sources from Wind [40][41][45] - **Operating rate - related data**: Include the operating rates of PTA, p - xylene, ethylene glycol in the polyester upstream, and the operating rates of polyester factories and Jiangsu and Zhejiang weaving machines in the polyester downstream, with data sources from Wind [51][55] - **Profit - related data**: Include PTA processing fees, MEG production profits from different production methods, and production profits of polyester fibers, with data sources from Wind and Mysteel [59][62][65]

PTA&MEG早报-2025年6月3日 交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 PTA 每日观点 大越期货投资咨询部 金泽彬 投资咨询资格证号：Z0015557 联系方式：0575-85226759 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投资建议。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 CONTENTS 目 录 1 前日回顾 2 每日提示 3 4 今日关注 基本面数据 5 PTA： 6、预期：上周PTA装置检修重启并行，PTA自身供需格局尚可，前期持续去库下，当前现货市场流通性偏紧，现货基差偏强运行， 不过下游聚酯工厂减产降负，预计短期内PTA现货价格跟随成本端区间震荡，现货基差维持偏强，关注OPEC+会议结果对油价影 响及聚酯装置变动。 1、基本面：周五，6月中上主港主流在09+220成交，零星在09+215成交，价格商谈区间在4895~5000附近。今日主流现货基差在 09+219。中性 2、基差：现货4940，09合约基差240，盘面贴水 偏多 3、库存：PTA工厂库存4.09天，环比减少0.06 ...

交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 CONTENTS 目 录 1 前日回顾 2 每日提示 3 4 今日关注 基本面数据 5 PTA 每日观点 PTA&MEG早报-2025年5月28日 大越期货投资咨询部 金泽彬 投资咨询资格证号：Z0015557 联系方式：0575-85226759 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投资建议。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 PTA： 1、基本面：昨日PTA期货跌后反弹，现货市场商谈氛围一般，贸易商商谈为主，零星聚酯工厂递盘，现货基差走强。个别主流 供应商有出货。本周下周货在09+175~180成交，价格商谈区间在4835~4920附近。6月中主港在09+180有成交，个别略高。7月货 在09+115~120有成交。今日主流现货基差在09+178。中性 2、基差：现货4875，09合约基差135，盘面贴水 偏多 3、库存：PTA工厂库存4.15天，环比减少0.13天 偏多 4、盘面：20日均线向上，收盘价收于20日均线之上 偏多 5、主力持仓：净多 多减 ...

交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 PTA&MEG早报-2025年5月27日 大越期货投资咨询部 金泽彬 投资咨询资格证号：Z0015557 联系方式：0575-85226759 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投资建议。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 CONTENTS 目 录 1 前日回顾 2 每日提示 3 4 今日关注 基本面数据 5 PTA： 1、基本面：今日PTA期货高开低走，现货市场商谈氛围一般，贸易商商谈为主，个别聚酯工厂有递盘，现货基差走强。个别主 流供应商出远期货源。5月主港在09升水165~170附近成交，价格商谈区间在4875~4950附近。6月中上09+170~180附近有成交。7 月中上在09+110有成交。今日主流现货基差在09+168。中性 2、基差：现货4913，09合约基差189，盘面贴水 偏多 3、库存：PTA工厂库存4.15天，环比减少0.13天 偏多 4、盘面：20日均线向上，收盘价收于20日均线之上 偏多 5、主力持仓：净多 空增 偏多 6、预期 ...