Core Viewpoint - Green development is emphasized as a fundamental aspect of China's modernization, with a focus on achieving carbon peak and expanding the national carbon emissions trading market [1] Group 1: National Carbon Emissions Trading Market - The national carbon emissions trading market has been operational for four years, covering over 2,200 key emission units in the power sector, making it the largest carbon market globally in terms of greenhouse gas emissions coverage [1] - The market's design optimization and the relationship between local pilot markets and the national unified carbon market are critical issues that need to be addressed [1][2] - The carbon price fluctuations reflect the market's sensitivity to policy changes, with significant price movements observed around compliance deadlines [3][4] Group 2: Local Carbon Markets - Local carbon markets have provided valuable experience for the national carbon emissions trading market, but they should not disrupt the national market's construction and must complement it [2] - Local pilot markets can focus on managing small and medium-sized enterprises and explore total carbon emission quota controls tailored to local needs [2] Group 3: Carbon Price Dynamics - Carbon price fluctuations are normal, with the market currently being a compliance-driven one, where prices have shown a pattern of rising before compliance deadlines and stabilizing afterward [3][4] - Recent policies, such as the allocation and transfer of quotas, may lead to increased supply and potential price declines [4] Group 4: Market Stability and Risk Management - Establishing a robust market adjustment mechanism is essential to stabilize carbon prices and address market issues, emphasizing the need for transparency and stability in policies [5] - The involvement of financial institutions in the carbon market is encouraged, but it requires the establishment of sound trading and risk management systems [6] Group 5: Preparation for EU Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism - Companies should prepare for the EU's Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism by enhancing their carbon trading systems and ensuring accurate carbon footprint calculations [6][7] - Businesses are advised to adopt low-carbon practices and develop internal carbon management systems to effectively track emissions and identify reduction opportunities [7]

Core Insights - Bosnia's energy sector is undergoing significant transformation and facing serious challenges, as highlighted by the chairman of the CIGRE conference, Zijad Bajramovic [1] Energy Production and Investment - Despite a decline in coal production and unfavorable hydrological conditions last year, investments in renewable energy generation have seen substantial growth [1] - Bosnia plans to construct approximately 1500 megawatts of solar and wind power capacity over the next three years, with an expected annual generation of about 3 terawatt-hours [1] Infrastructure and System Risks - The electricity grid structure in Bosnia is projected to face risks of system congestion and instability, with an estimated need for around 1.4 billion marks for upgrades to the transmission and distribution systems by 2030 [1] Regulatory Developments - Starting from early 2026, the EU Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism (CBAM) will fully impact Bosnia's electricity exports [1] - Bosnia has committed to establishing a power exchange and a carbon emissions trading system, with the recently passed Electricity Regulation, Transmission, and Market Law being a crucial step towards integrating with the European electricity market and avoiding CBAM taxation before 2030 [1] Conference Participation - The energy conference has over 500 engineers and experts from Bosnia, Croatia, Slovenia, and Serbia, focusing on topics such as electrification of transport, large-scale application of heat pumps, battery system investments, and development in industrial and service sectors [1]

波黑国家台10月8日报道。在近日举行的"西巴尔干能源周"部长级会议上，波黑塞族共和国能源与矿业 部长佩塔尔·乔基奇宣布，该实体已签署多项能源领域合作协议，总投资额约50亿马克，涉及装机容量 约2170兆瓦。乔基奇向投资者强调，塞族共和国已通过五项与欧盟法规相适配的法律，构建了稳定的可 再生能源投资法律框架，是"安全的投资目的地"。 乔基奇特别指出欧盟碳边境调节机制（CBAM）可能对本地经济造成严重冲击，强调波黑已通过《电力 监管机构、输电和市场法》，满足欧盟要求，因此塞族共和国认为将CBAM实施时间从2026年1月1日延 后是合理的。他质疑欧盟"在无人跟进其政策时，是否有权强加会令成员国造成经济混乱的举措，并期 望欧委会接受波黑的延期请求。 会议期间，乔基奇与多家有意合作的企业举行了双边会谈。本次会议汇聚了意大利驻黑山大使、塞尔维 亚能源机构主席及多位能源企业代表。（驻波黑使馆经商处） 乔基奇同时提出，在建设发电设施的同时需加强输电网络投资。他强调这属于区域性问题，稳定的能源 传输是整个西巴尔干地区可持续能源发展和电力可靠供应的前提。目前与欧洲投资机构的合作效率未达 预期，需建立更有效的伙伴关系。 ...

Core Viewpoint - The 2025 Gulangyu Forum on ESG and Sustainable Industrial Development Innovation successfully held in Xiamen focused on "Building Digital Product Passports to Support Sustainable Trade Development" and aimed to enhance the international sustainable trade system through collaborative initiatives [1][3][29]. Group 1: Forum Overview - The forum attracted over 400 participants from government, international organizations, industry think tanks, and leading enterprises to discuss the current status and trends of sustainable trade [1][3]. - The event was co-hosted by various organizations, including the Xiamen Municipal Government and the Green Finance 60 Forum (GF60), highlighting the collaborative effort in promoting sustainable trade [1][3]. Group 2: Key Discussions - Experts emphasized the importance of Digital Product Passports (DPP) in enhancing supply chain resilience and sustainable trade, with the EU set to implement DPP requirements by February 2027, making it essential for exporting companies [6][8]. - The forum addressed the intersection of international trade and climate policy, particularly through mechanisms like the EU Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism (CBAM), which taxes imports based on carbon content [8][10]. Group 3: Initiatives and Recommendations - The "Gulangyu Initiative" was launched to promote international cooperation, fair trade, and sustainable development, calling for a collaborative approach to build a credible trade system [29][31]. - Recommendations included government support for enterprises to prepare for DPP requirements, financial institutions providing green credit for technological upgrades, and companies updating products to meet new EU standards [15][19]. Group 4: Industry Perspectives - Various industry leaders discussed the need for enhanced carbon transparency and the establishment of a unified carbon footprint standard to improve competitiveness in the international green trade system [38][40]. - The integration of digital technologies and low-carbon solutions was highlighted as a pathway for industries to achieve sustainable development and meet international trade requirements [22][42].

Group 1 - Bosnia and Herzegovina is currently the only country in Europe without an established electricity exchange, despite the government's efforts to create a unified market regulatory framework in line with EU energy regulations [1] - The draft law for electricity regulation has not yet been submitted to the Bosnian parliament, and its approval by the end of this year remains uncertain, with the earliest possible establishment of an electricity exchange projected for the second half of 2026 [1] - The country has seen a fourfold increase in electricity imports in the first half of this year, indicating a shift from being an exporter to an importer due to policy failures and delays in renewable energy infrastructure development [1] Group 2 - Establishing an electricity exchange in Mostar could facilitate connections with neighboring markets, which is essential for Bosnia to qualify for EU carbon border adjustment mechanism (CBAM) tariff exemptions by 2030 [2] - The development of renewable energy projects, such as the large wind farm in Tomislavgrad and a planned 400 MW project in Glamoč, is insufficient to address the energy supply issues and attract more foreign investment [1]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the report. 2. Core Views - PTA: The early maintenance devices of PTA are gradually restarting, and the polyester load downstream is decreasing, weakening the support for PTA from the supply - demand side. The spot price of PTA will fluctuate weakly, while the spot basis will run strongly in the short - term due to tight spot supply, with an expected decline as supply returns. Attention should be paid to the progress of new PTA device production and changes in downstream polyester load [6]. - MEG: After the Dragon Boat Festival, the port inventory of ethylene glycol is expected to decline significantly, and the inventory in Zhangjiagang's mainstream trade tanks is likely to fall within 200,000 tons. The tradable spot of ethylene glycol in June remains tight, and the spot basis will mainly run strongly. The medium - and short - term supply - demand structure of ethylene glycol is favorable, supporting its price. Attention should be paid to changes in polyester load [7]. - Influencing Factors: The maintenance season of raw materials such as PTA and ethylene glycol leads to supply contraction, with an expected inventory reduction of over 500,000 tons in the second quarter, supporting price rebounds. However, the EU's Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism (CBAM) will levy taxes on polyester products starting in 2025, increasing export costs by 8% - 12%. The average domestic polyester operating rate is 85%, with some small and medium - sized enterprises below 70%, and the inventory days of filament and staple fiber are approaching historical highs [9][10]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1前日回顾 No information provided in the report. 3.2每日提示 - **PTA** - Fundamental: The PTA futures fluctuated and closed higher yesterday. The spot market negotiation atmosphere was fair, the spot basis was strong, and individual polyester suppliers made bids. The mainstream spot basis today is 09 + 220 [6]. - Basis: The spot price is 4,855 yuan/ton, the basis of the 09 contract is 235, and the futures price is at a discount to the spot, indicating a bullish signal [6]. - Inventory: The inventory of PTA factories is 4.03 days, a week - on - week increase of 0.01 days, indicating a bearish signal [6]. - Disk: The 20 - day moving average is downward, and the closing price is below the 20 - day moving average, indicating a bearish signal [6]. - Main Position: The net long position is decreasing, indicating a bullish signal [6]. - **MEG** - Fundamental: On Thursday, ethylene glycol weakened and declined. The market negotiation was fair. The night - session opened higher and then fell back, with cautious buying. The market continued to be weak during the day, and the spot price dropped to around 4,315 yuan/ton in the afternoon [8]. - Basis: The spot price is 4,347 yuan/ton, the basis of the 09 contract is 113, and the futures price is at a discount to the spot, indicating a bullish signal [8]. - Inventory: The total inventory in East China is 553,800 tons, a week - on - week increase of 43,200 tons, indicating a bullish signal [8]. - Disk: The 20 - day moving average is downward, and the closing price is below the 20 - day moving average, indicating a bearish signal [8]. - Main Position: The net short position is decreasing, indicating a bearish signal [8]. 3.3今日关注 No information provided in the report. 3.4基本面数据 - **PTA Supply - Demand Balance Sheet**: It shows the PTA production capacity, load, output, import, total supply, polyester production, consumption, and other data from January 2024 to December 2025 [12]. - **Ethylene Glycol Supply - Demand Balance Sheet**: It shows the ethylene glycol production capacity, load, output, import, total supply, polyester production, consumption, and other data from January 2024 to December 2025 [13]. - **Price Data**: It includes the spot prices of naphtha, p - xylene, PTA, ethylene glycol, polyester filaments, and polyester staple fibers, as well as the futures prices and basis of PTA and ethylene glycol on June 12, 2025, and their changes compared with June 11 [14]. - **Inventory Data**: It shows the inventory data of PTA, ethylene glycol, PET chips, polyester filaments, and polyester staple fibers, including factory inventory days and port inventory [43][45][52]. - **Operating Rate Data**: It shows the operating rates of PTA, p - xylene, ethylene glycol, polyester factories, and Jiangsu - Zhejiang looms from 2020 to 2025 [54][56][58][60]. - **Profit Data**: It shows the processing fees of PTA, the production profits of ethylene glycol from different raw materials, and the production profits of polyester filaments and polyester staple fibers from 2022 to 2025 [62][65][67].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - The short - term commodity market is greatly affected by the macro - level, and there is still an expectation of inventory accumulation at the raw material end. After the market rebounds, attention should be paid to the upper resistance level [10]. - For PTA, the supply and demand support for PTA is weakening due to the restart of previously shut - down units and the reduction of downstream polyester load. The spot price is expected to fluctuate weakly, and the basis may decline later [5]. - For MEG, it is expected that the port inventory will decline significantly after the Dragon Boat Festival, and the supply - demand structure is benign in the medium and short term, which supports the price [6]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1. Previous Day Review No relevant content provided. 3.2. Daily Tips - **PTA** - Fundamental: The PTA futures fluctuated weakly yesterday, the spot market negotiation atmosphere was okay, the spot basis was strong, and there were a small number of polyester factory purchases. The mainstream spot basis today is at 09 + 218 [5]. - Basis: The spot price is 4820, the basis of the 09 contract is 200, and the futures is at a discount [5]. - Inventory: The PTA factory inventory is 4.02 days, a decrease of 0.07 days compared to the previous period [5]. - Disk: The 20 - day moving average is downward, and the closing price is below the 20 - day moving average [5]. - Main position: The net long position is decreasing [5]. - Expectation: The supply - demand support for PTA is weakening. The spot price will fluctuate weakly, and the basis may decline later. Attention should be paid to the new device production progress and downstream polyester load changes [5]. - **MEG** - Fundamental: On Wednesday, the MEG price fluctuated widely, and the basis weakened. The spot basis weakened significantly in the afternoon, and the spot was traded at a premium of 85 - 88 yuan/ton to the 09 contract at the end of the session [7]. - Basis: The spot price is 4375, the basis of the 09 contract is 90, and the futures is at a discount [7]. - Inventory: The total inventory in East China is 59.7 tons, an increase of 2.33 tons compared to the previous period [7]. - Disk: The 20 - day moving average is downward, and the closing price is below the 20 - day moving average [7]. - Main position: The main net short position is decreasing [7]. - Expectation: It is expected that the port inventory will decline significantly after the Dragon Boat Festival, and the supply - demand structure is benign in the medium and short term, which supports the price [6]. 3.3. Today's Focus No relevant content provided. 3.4. Fundamental Data - **PTA Supply - Demand Balance Sheet**: Presents the PTA supply - demand situation from January 2024 to December 2025, including capacity, production, consumption, inventory, etc. [11] - **MEG Supply - Demand Balance Sheet**: Shows the MEG supply - demand situation from January 2024 to December 2025, including production, consumption, port inventory, etc. [12] - **Price Data**: Provides price changes of various products such as naphtha, PX, PTA, MEG, polyester filaments, and short - fibers on June 11, 2025, compared to June 10, 2025, as well as profit data [13] 3.5. Impact Factor Summary - **Positive Factors**: The maintenance season of raw materials such as PTA and MEG has led to supply contraction, and the de - stocking expectation in the second quarter exceeds 500,000 tons, which supports the price rebound [8]. - **Negative Factors**: The EU's Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism (CBAM) has imposed taxes on polyester products since 2025, increasing export costs by 8% - 12%. The average domestic polyester operating rate is 85%, with some small and medium - sized enterprises below 70%. Low - end over - capacity has led to fierce price competition, and the inventory days of filaments and short - fibers are approaching historical highs [9].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - PTA futures fluctuated and declined yesterday, with fair negotiation in the spot market and fluctuating spot basis. The polyester factory's buying increased. The short - term price of ethylene glycol will be adjusted within a range, and its price will face upward pressure due to increased liquidity and weak demand. The supply - demand structure of ethylene glycol is benign in the medium and short term, which supports its price [5][6][7]. - The raw material maintenance season leads to supply contraction, with a de - stocking expectation of over 500,000 tons in the second quarter, supporting price rebound. However, the EU's carbon border adjustment mechanism will increase the export cost of polyester products by 8% - 12%, and the domestic polyester industry has problems such as low - end over - capacity and high inventory [9][10]. - The short - term commodity market is greatly affected by the macro - level, and there is still an expectation of raw material inventory accumulation. Attention should be paid to the upper resistance level after the market rebounds [11]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 Previous Day's Review No relevant content provided. 3.2 Daily Hints - **PTA Daily View** - Fundamental: PTA futures fluctuated and declined yesterday, with fair negotiation in the spot market and fluctuating spot basis. The polyester factory's buying increased. The current mainstream spot basis is 09 + 208, showing a neutral situation [6]. - Basis: The spot price is 4855, and the 09 - contract basis is 253, with the futures price at a discount, showing a bullish sign [6]. - Inventory: The PTA factory's inventory is 4.02 days, a decrease of 0.07 days compared to the previous period, showing a bullish sign [6]. - Market: The 20 - day moving average is downward, and the closing price is below the 20 - day moving average, showing a bearish sign [6]. - Main Position: The net long position increased, showing a bullish sign [5]. - Expectation: The ethylene glycol vessels will be stocked well this week. It is expected that the port inventory will remain stable or slightly decrease early next week. The supply - demand structure of ethylene glycol is still benign this month. After the warehouse receipts are gradually cancelled and flow out, the available spot in the market will be supplemented. The load of synthetic - gas - based ethylene glycol will also increase from the middle of the month. In the short term, the ethylene glycol price will be adjusted within a range, and its price will face upward pressure due to increased liquidity and weak demand. Attention should be paid to the polyester sales situation and the restart progress of large - scale ethylene glycol plants [5]. - **MEG Daily View** - Fundamental: On Monday, the ethylene glycol price declined weakly, with general negotiation in the market. The port inventory increased slightly, and the external arrivals were concentrated this week. The low - level of visible inventory has emerged. Coupled with the mention of polyester production cuts again, the market sentiment is weak, and the spot basis has weakened to a premium of 108 - 110 yuan/ton over the 09 - contract. The external price of ethylene glycol also declined weakly, showing a neutral situation [8]. - Basis: The spot price is 4380, and the 09 - contract basis is 124, with the futures price at a discount, showing a bullish sign [8]. - Inventory: The total inventory in the East China region is 597,000 tons, an increase of 23,300 tons compared to the previous period, showing a bearish sign [8]. - Market: The 20 - day moving average is downward, and the closing price is below the 20 - day moving average, showing a bearish sign [8]. - Main Position: The main net short position increased, showing a bearish sign [8]. - Expectation: The ethylene glycol port shipment efficiency was good last week. Combined with the scarce external arrivals this week, it is expected that the port inventory will decrease significantly after the Dragon Boat Festival, and the inventory in Zhangjiagang's mainstream trading tanks is likely to fall below 200,000 tons. The available spot of ethylene glycol is still in short supply in June, and the spot basis will remain strong. Attention should be paid to the outflow of warehouse receipts. The supply - demand structure of ethylene glycol is benign in the medium and short term, which supports its price. Attention should be paid to the change in polyester load [7]. 3.3 Today's Focus No relevant content provided. 3.4 Fundamental Data - **PTA Supply - Demand Balance Sheet**: It shows the PTA supply - demand situation from January 2024 to December 2025, including capacity, output, import, export, consumption, and inventory data [12]. - **Ethylene Glycol Supply - Demand Balance Sheet**: It shows the ethylene glycol supply - demand situation from January 2024 to December 2025, including production rate, output, import, export, consumption, and port inventory data [13]. - **Price Data**: It shows the price changes of various products such as naphtha, p - xylene, PTA, and ethylene glycol from June 6 to June 9, 2025, including spot prices, futures prices, and basis data [14]. - **Other Data**: It also includes data on bottle - chip prices, production margins, capacity utilization rates, inventory levels, as well as data on PTA and ethylene glycol spreads, basis, inventory analysis, upstream and downstream operating rates, processing fees, and production margins [15 - 72].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content Core Viewpoints - For PTA, the expected port inventory of ethylene glycol is likely to remain stable or slightly decrease early next week, with the supply - demand structure remaining favorable this month. However, the inflow of cancelled warehouse receipts will supplement the available spot, and the load of syngas - based ethylene glycol may increase from the middle of the month. In the short term, the ethylene glycol price will be adjusted within a range, facing upward pressure due to increased liquidity and weak demand. Attention should be paid to polyester sales and the restart progress of major ethylene glycol plants. The PTA market shows a neutral fundamental situation, with a positive bias in terms of basis, inventory, disk performance, and main - contract holdings [6][7]. - For MEG, on Friday, the price center of ethylene glycol declined weakly, and the market negotiation was average. The intraday disk was weak, and the spot basis was at a low level. It is expected that the port inventory will decrease significantly after the Dragon Boat Festival, and the available spot in June will still be tight, with the spot basis remaining strong. The medium - and short - term supply - demand structure is favorable, supporting the price. Attention should be paid to the change in polyester load. The fundamental situation is neutral, with a positive bias in basis and disk performance, and a negative bias in inventory and main - contract holdings [8][9]. - The raw material maintenance season of PTA and ethylene glycol has led to supply contraction, with a de - stocking expectation of over 500,000 tons in the second quarter, which supports price rebound. However, the EU's Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism (CBAM) has imposed taxes on polyester products since 2025, increasing export costs by 8% - 12%, and domestic polyester has issues such as low average operating rates in some small and medium - sized enterprises, over - capacity of low - end products, and high inventory levels of filaments and staple fibers [10][11]. Summary by Directory 1. Previous Day's Review - Not provided in the given content 2. Daily Tips - **PTA Daily Viewpoint** - Fundamental: On Friday, the main port transactions in mid - and late June were at 09 + 220~230, with prices around 4850 - 4940. The mainstream spot basis was 09 + 225 [7]. - Basis: The spot price was 4897, and the 09 - contract basis was 245, with the futures price at a discount [7]. - Inventory: PTA factory inventory was 4.02 days, a decrease of 0.07 days compared to the previous period [7]. - Disk: The 20 - day moving average was upward, and the closing price was below the 20 - day moving average [7]. - Main - contract Holdings: Net long positions increased [7]. - **MEG Daily Viewpoint** - Fundamental: On Friday, the price center of ethylene glycol declined weakly, and the market negotiation was average. The intraday disk was weak, and the spot basis was at a low level, with some traders participating in buying at night [8]. - Basis: The spot price was 4400, and the 09 - contract basis was 139, with the futures price at a discount [9]. - Inventory: The total inventory in East China was 597,000 tons, an increase of 23,300 tons compared to the previous period [9]. - Disk: The 20 - day moving average was upward, and the closing price was below the 20 - day moving average [9]. - Main - contract Holdings: Net short positions increased [8] 3. Today's Focus - **Influencing Factors Summary** - **Likely to be Bullish**: The raw material maintenance season of PTA and ethylene glycol has led to supply contraction, with a de - stocking expectation of over 500,000 tons in the second quarter, which supports price rebound [10]. - **Likely to be Bearish**: The EU's Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism (CBAM) has imposed taxes on polyester products since 2025, increasing export costs by 8% - 12%. Domestic polyester has an average operating rate of 85%, with some small and medium - sized enterprises having an operating rate of less than 70%. Low - end over - capacity has led to fierce price competition, and the inventory days of filaments and staple fibers are approaching historical highs [11]. - **Current Main Logic and Risk Points**: The short - term commodity market is greatly affected by the macro - level, and there is still an expectation of raw material inventory accumulation. Attention should be paid to the upper resistance level after the disk rebounds [12] 4. Fundamental Data - **PTA Supply - Demand Balance Sheet**: It details the PTA production capacity, load, output, import, supply, polyester production capacity, load, output, PTA consumption, demand, export, and inventory from January 2024 to December 2025 [13]. - **Ethylene Glycol Supply - Demand Balance Sheet**: It shows the total operating rate, production, new capacity, supply, polyester production capacity, load, output, ethylene glycol consumption, demand, port inventory, and inventory change of ethylene glycol from January 2024 to December 2025 [14]. - **Price Data**: It includes the spot price of bottle chips, production profit, capacity utilization rate, inventory, PTA basis, MEG inter - month spread, basis, spot spread, and other price - related data from 2019 to 2025 [16][19][23][26][32][39] - **Inventory Analysis**: It presents the inventory data of PTA, MEG, PET chips, polyester fibers (short - fiber, DTY, FDY, POY), and other products from 2021 to 2025 [42][44][47] - **Polyester Upstream and Downstream Operating Rates**: It shows the operating rates of PTA, paraxylene, ethylene glycol, polyester factories, and Jiangsu - Zhejiang looms from 2020 to 2025 [53][57] - **Profit Data**: It includes the processing fee of PTA, production profit of MEG (methanol - based, coal - based syngas, naphtha - integrated, ethylene - based), and production profit of polyester fibers (short - fiber, DTY, POY, FDY) from 2022 to 2025 [61][64][67]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - PTA: The PTA futures fluctuated and closed lower yesterday, with the spot market having a general negotiation atmosphere and the spot basis rebounding. The PTA supply - demand pattern is acceptable, and the spot market liquidity is tight due to previous continuous destocking, resulting in a strong - running spot basis. However, downstream polyester factories are reducing production and load. It is expected that the PTA spot price will fluctuate within a range following the cost side in the short term, and the spot basis will remain strong. Attention should be paid to the impact of the OPEC+ meeting results on oil prices and changes in polyester plants [5]. - MEG: The price of ethylene glycol fluctuated, with the price center rising first and then falling on Thursday. The market negotiation was acceptable, and the basis strengthened moderately. It is expected that the port inventory will decline significantly after the Dragon Boat Festival, and the available spot in June is still tight, so the spot basis will mainly maintain a strong operation. The short - and medium - term supply - demand structure of ethylene glycol is benign, which supports the price. Attention should be paid to changes in polyester load [7]. - Influencing factors: The maintenance season of raw materials such as PTA and ethylene glycol has led to supply contraction, and the destocking expectation in the second quarter exceeds 500,000 tons, which supports price rebound. However, the EU's Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism (CBAM) has imposed taxes on polyester products since 2025, increasing export costs by 8% - 12%. The average domestic polyester operating rate is 85%, and some small and medium - sized enterprises have an operating rate of less than 70%, with over - capacity of low - end products leading to intense price competition, and the inventory days of filaments and staple fibers are approaching historical highs [8][9]. - Current logic and risks: The short - term commodity market is greatly affected by the macro - level, and there is still an expectation of raw material inventory accumulation. After the market rebounds, attention should be paid to the upper resistance level [10]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Previous Day's Review No relevant content provided. 3.2 Daily Tips - PTA: The fundamentals are neutral, with the spot basis being positive, the factory inventory decreasing, the 20 - day moving average upward but the closing price below it, and the net long position of the main contract decreasing. It is expected to follow the cost side to fluctuate within a range [5]. - MEG: The fundamentals are neutral, with the basis strengthening, the port inventory in the East China region increasing, the 20 - day moving average upward but the closing price below it, and the net short position of the main contract increasing. The short - and medium - term supply - demand structure is favorable [7]. 3.3 Today's Focus No relevant content provided. 3.4 Fundamental Data - PTA Supply - Demand Balance Sheet: It shows the data of PTA production capacity, production, import, consumption, and inventory from January 2024 to December 2025, reflecting the supply - demand relationship and inventory changes in different periods [11]. - Ethylene Glycol Supply - Demand Balance Sheet: It presents the data of ethylene glycol's total operating rate, production, import, consumption, and port inventory from January 2024 to December 2025, showing the supply - demand situation and inventory trends [12]. - Price Data: It includes the spot price, production profit, capacity utilization rate, inventory, and various price spreads of bottle chips, as well as the price spreads, basis, and inventory data of PTA and MEG, which are sourced from Wind, Mysteel, and CCF [13][14][27][30][34][37]. - Inventory Analysis: It shows the inventory data of PTA, MEG, PET chips, and various polyester products, including factory inventory and port inventory, sourced from Wind [40][41][43][52]. - Polyester Upstream and Downstream Operating Rates: It includes the operating rates of PTA, paraxylene, ethylene glycol, polyester factories, and Jiangsu - Zhejiang looms from 2020 to 2025, reflecting the production status of the polyester industry chain [53][57]. - Profit Data: It shows the processing fees of PTA and the production profits of MEG produced by different methods, as well as the production profits of polyester fibers (staple fibers, filaments), sourced from Wind and Mysteel [62][63][66].