资产概览：沃什交易逆转美元与黄金走势 [Table_Authors] 方奕(分析师) ——资产配置全球跟踪 2026 年 2 月第 1 期 本报告导读： 01/26-01/30，沃什获提名概率飙升引发市场短期"沃什交易"，呈现"美元涨+黄金跌 +长端美债跌"的资产格局。原油领涨。韩国 KS11 与 KOSDAQ 年内涨幅破 20%。 略 投资要点： 策略研究 /[Table_Date] 2026.02.01 | | 021-38031658 | | --- | --- | | | fangyi2@gtht.com | | 登记编号 | S0880520120005 | | | 郭佼佼(分析师) | | | 021-38031042 | | | guojiaojiao2@gtht.com | | 登记编号 | S0880523070002 | [Table_Report] 相关报告 成交活跃度上升，上证 50 估值领涨 2026.02.01 2025A 业绩预告情况跟踪（2026.01.28） 2026.01.29 ETF 资金大幅流出，主动外资流入边际抬升 2026.01.27 资产概览：国际金银价格刷新历史 ...

Group 1 - The report highlights the impact of the "Walsh trade" on market risk appetite, indicating a potential shift in global asset allocation and market style due to the nomination of Kevin Walsh as the next Federal Reserve Chair, which has already affected market risk preferences [9][11]. - The North Exchange 50 Index experienced a decline of 3.59% this week, with notable sector rotations observed, where previously high-performing sectors like military and power equipment corrected, while previously lagging sectors such as oil and gas, real estate, food and beverage, and communications rebounded [5][8]. - Key performing sectors this week included space photovoltaic (Liancheng Numerical Control +21.73%), seed industry (Qiule Seed +22.55%, Kangnong Seed +13.5%), and optical communication (Hengdong Light +14.83%, Gebijia +19.72%) [5][8]. Group 2 - The report notes an acceleration in new stock issuances, with five new stocks launched in January 2026, and a total of 123 companies having released performance forecasts by January 30, 2026, indicating a need for expansion in the North Exchange due to its limited number of companies and small market capitalization [10][24]. - The median net profit forecast for companies in the North Exchange is over 80 million yuan, with several companies, including Fujida and Jilin Carbon Valley, expected to see over 30% year-on-year growth in Q4 2025 [10][11]. - Investment recommendations suggest focusing on sectors with clear industry trends and catalysts, such as AI, commercial aerospace, and optical communication, while monitoring the effects of the "Walsh trade" on interest rates and small-cap stocks [11][24]. Group 3 - The North Exchange's trading volume reached 5.961 billion shares this week, reflecting a 9.27% increase, while the trading value was 143.655 billion yuan, up 8.82% from the previous week [14][23]. - The report indicates that 43 stocks rose while 249 fell, resulting in a rise-to-fall ratio of 0.17, with notable gainers including Keli Co. and Qiule Seed [33][34]. - The report also details the performance of newly listed stocks, with Nongda Technology and Meidele experiencing significant first-day gains of 111.56% and 161.46%, respectively [24][27]. Group 4 - The report outlines the new three-board situation, with 14 new companies listed and 6 delisted, alongside a planned financing of 150 million yuan, which was completed at 161 million yuan [46][47]. - The report emphasizes the need for ongoing monitoring of the North Exchange's stock performance and the implications of new listings on market dynamics [10][24].

Group 1 - The "Walsh trade" is impacting risk preferences, with a notable focus on the potential reversal of the "weak dollar" trade, which could significantly affect global asset allocation and market styles [11][12] - The North Exchange 50 index experienced a decline of 3.59%, while daily trading volume saw a slight increase [11][17] - Key sectors that performed well this week include space photovoltaic, seed industry, non-ferrous metals, and optical communication, with notable stock performances from companies like Liancheng CNC and Gongbika [11][12] Group 2 - New stock issuances have accelerated, with five new stocks launched in January 2026, and over 120 companies releasing performance forecasts [13][27] - As of January 30, 2026, 123 companies on the North Exchange have issued performance forecasts, with a median net profit forecast exceeding 80 million yuan [13] - The report suggests that the North Exchange needs to expand its number of companies and improve the quality of new stock issuances in 2026 [13] Group 3 - The North Exchange's PE (TTM) average is 83.89 times, with a median of 41.26 times, indicating a decline in valuation metrics [23][24] - The trading volume for the North Exchange reached 5.961 billion shares, with a trading value of 143.655 billion yuan, reflecting an increase of 9.27% and 8.82% respectively [26][29] - The report highlights the performance of individual stocks, with 43 stocks rising and 249 falling, resulting in a rise-to-fall ratio of 0.17 [36]