市场回顾 资料来源：wind；统计区间：2025/11/24-2025/11/28 宏观数据分析 国家统计局发布10月工业企业利润数据，1—10月规上工业企业利润累计同比增长1.9%，当月同比下降 5.5%。累计同比角度，1—10月份采矿业下降27.8%，制造业增长7.7%；电力、热力、燃气及水生产和 供应业增长9.5%。单月同比角度，10月上、中、下游行业利润同比增速依次 为-12.0%、-4.8%、-13.9%，中游中的计算机通信电子制造业、汽车制造业、有色金属压延加工业录得 正增长。在内需不足和反内卷背景下，上游能源和缺乏议价能力的下游行业利润持续承压。 压下的投资消费政策对冲或在美国降息周期下的宽松跟进，这是市场风格能否改变的决定性因素）。在 偏宽松的货币政策支持和低利率环境下，市场流动性充足，依旧支持主题性机会不断产生。 长期维度，中美长期斗争的基调已经确定，随着美国政策的底线逐渐清晰与持续增加赤字，国际资本市 场已经开始质疑美国政府的治理能力与制度信誉。但美元信用目前仍未被实质撼动，美债暂时也不存在 大风险。观察美国资本市场变化与我国是否会迎来战略机遇。当前在美国经济前景不确定+美联储降息 区间中 ...

Market Overview - A-shares experienced a decline last week, with major indices showing reduced trading volume during the adjustment phase [2] - Among the 31 Shenwan first-level industries, banking, media, and food and beverage sectors performed relatively well [2] Macroeconomic Data Analysis - In September, the U.S. added 119,000 non-farm jobs, exceeding expectations of 51,000, although August's data was revised down from 22,000 to -4,000 [3] - The unemployment rate rose to 4.4%, slightly above expectations and previous values [3] - The strong non-farm data had already been factored into the market, leading to a slight increase in the probability of a rate cut in December to around 40% [3] - Future inflation data, such as PCE prices, will be critical for the Federal Reserve's December decision [3] Stock Market Strategy Outlook - The market showed wide fluctuations last week, with low trading volume and weak technical indicators [4] - The market's downward trend was anticipated, with several short-term negative macro factors, including geopolitical risks and concerns over AI giants' profitability [4] - Defensive dividend and cyclical sectors performed better in the short term, while the overall market is expected to remain volatile [4] - The long-term market structure is unlikely to change significantly, as the economic fundamentals and technology narratives remain stable [5] Long-term Perspective - The ongoing U.S.-China competition has established a clear baseline, with increasing skepticism about the U.S. government's governance and institutional credibility [6] - The RMB has appreciated against the USD amid uncertainties in the U.S. economic outlook and Fed rate cuts, potentially supporting China's equity market [6] - The trend towards long-term capital from public funds and insurance companies is expected to strengthen, with significant excess deposits in the market [6] - A focus on defensive dividend sectors is recommended, with attention to catalysts in certain industries [6]

Market Overview - A-shares experienced mixed performance last week, with major indices showing fluctuations and increased trading volume during adjustments [1] - Among the 31 Shenwan first-level industries, electrical equipment, non-ferrous metals, and steel performed relatively well [1] Macro Data Analysis - In September, industrial enterprise profits grew by 21.6% year-on-year, up from 20.4% in August, marking two consecutive months of double-digit growth [3] - The mining industry saw a profit decline of 29.3%, while manufacturing and electric heat water supply industries reported profit increases of 9.9% and 10.3%, respectively [3] - The automotive and computer communication equipment manufacturing sectors showed significant improvement, influenced by industry trends and policy support [3] - The accounts receivable period slightly shortened to 69.2 days, with a year-on-year increase of 3.3 days and a month-on-month decrease of 0.9 days, linked to a new fiscal tool worth 500 billion [3] Corporate Profit Growth - The cumulative year-on-year net profit growth for the entire A-share market and non-financial A-shares in Q3 2025 was 5.54% and 3.94%, respectively, showing an increase from H1 2025 [4] - The main board, ChiNext, and STAR Market reported net profit growth rates of +5.02%, +19.23%, and -5.01% in Q3 2025, reflecting a recovery from H1 2025 [4] - Key industries with strong net profit growth in Q3 included steel, non-ferrous metals, non-bank financials, electronics, and media [4] Market Strategy Outlook - The market experienced wide fluctuations last week, with marginal increases in trading volume during adjustments [5] - The proportion of public funds heavily invested in TMT sectors reached 40%, nearing historical highs [5] - The market is expected to remain volatile in the short term, with high-pressure adjustments on elevated sectors [5] - Long-term investment opportunities may arise from the ongoing AI competition and sectors with strong fundamentals, such as technology and domestic demand [5] - Defensive sectors are recommended for increased allocation, with a focus on dividend-paying stocks and stable assets like gold and agricultural products [5]

Market Overview - The A-share market experienced a decline across major indices last week, with trading volume continuing to decrease amid divergent market performance [1] - Among the 31 Shenwan first-level industries, banking, coal, and food and beverage sectors performed relatively well [1] Macro Data Analysis - In September, the new social financing scale was 35,338 billion yuan, with new RMB loans amounting to 12,900 billion yuan; the year-on-year growth rate of social financing stock was 8.7%, slightly down from 8.8% [5] - M1 new caliber stock year-on-year growth rate was 7.2%, up from 6.0% last month; M2 stock year-on-year growth rate was 8.4%, down from 8.8% [5] - The main contributors to new social financing were short-term loans to enterprises (increased by 0.25 trillion yuan year-on-year), corporate bonds (increased by 0.20 trillion yuan), and off-balance-sheet notes (increased by 0.19 trillion yuan) [5] - The consumer price index (CPI) in September was -0.3%, a slight improvement from -0.4% the previous month; the producer price index (PPI) decreased by 2.3% year-on-year, with a narrowing decline [6] Stock Market Strategy Outlook - The market experienced wide fluctuations last week, with trading volume and margin financing continuing to decline, dropping below 2 trillion yuan [8] - The upcoming period until early November is expected to be filled with macro events, leading to a prevailing cautious sentiment in the market [8] - The technology sector's long-term logic remains intact, and its high valuations have seen some digestion during recent adjustments [8] - Defensive dividend sectors may see an increase in allocation in the short term, while attention should be paid to stocks with catalysts in the dividend sector [8] - The long-term outlook indicates that the ongoing U.S.-China struggle has set a baseline, with international capital markets beginning to question U.S. governance and institutional credibility [8] - The current liquidity environment remains supportive, with a potential influx of funds into the equity market as the wealth effect increases among residents [8]

Domestic Economic Outlook - August exports fell short of expectations, indicating a potential slowdown in China's export growth, with a trade surplus of $98.24 billion, up 11.8% year-on-year[19] - The Producer Price Index (PPI) in August showed a year-on-year decline of 2.9%, a narrowing from the previous month's 3.6%[20] U.S. Economic Indicators - Following the release of non-farm employment, PPI, and CPI data, market expectations for rapid interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve have increased, with initial jobless claims rising significantly in the week of September 14[17] - The U.S. Supreme Court is set to hear oral arguments on Trump's tariff case in November, which may accelerate tariff adjustments[17] Currency and Trade Relations - The upcoming U.S.-China talks from September 14-17 may influence the RMB exchange rate; if tariffs are reduced, the RMB could strengthen past the 7 mark[18] - A weak dollar trading environment has temporarily ended, with the U.S. significantly revising down employment data, reinforcing the case for Fed rate cuts[18] Market Performance - The A-share market showed a weekly increase of 1.52%, while the Hang Seng Index rose by 3.82%[45] - Gold prices have been fluctuating upwards, and international crude oil prices have rebounded[43] Monetary Policy and Liquidity - The overall liquidity shifted from tight to loose, with a net injection of 196.1 billion yuan through reverse repos this week[24] - The weighted issuance rate of interbank certificates of deposit rose to 1.6264%, reflecting a slight increase from the previous week[27]

Domestic Insights - The August PMI manufacturing price index increased, likely due to the upward shift in upstream commodity prices, which may hinder future corporate profit recovery[2] - The current domestic market is in a new bull market phase, with wealth effects expected to boost service consumption as a highlight for Q4 economic growth[2] - September is a critical observation window for RMB appreciation, especially if US-China negotiations show substantial progress[2] Overseas Insights - In August, non-farm payrolls added only 22,000 jobs, significantly below the expected 75,000, indicating a moderate slowdown in employment rather than a rapid decline[15] - The unemployment rate rose to 4.3% in August from 4.2% in July, reinforcing concerns about employment risks discussed at the Jackson Hole meeting[15] - The weak non-farm data suggests the Federal Reserve may lower interest rates by 75 basis points this year, with weak dollar trading likely to continue in the coming weeks[15] Liquidity and Market Trends - The overall liquidity tightened this week, with the benchmark interest rate down approximately 7.412 basis points[19] - The average daily transaction volume in the interbank pledged repo market increased by about 2417.16 billion CNY, reaching 73138.95 billion CNY[20] - Government bond issuance pressure decreased, with a net repayment of 1184.54 billion CNY and a planned issuance of 8376.7 billion CNY next week[21] Asset Performance - The Shanghai Composite Index fell by 1.18% this week, while the Shenzhen Component Index decreased by 0.83%[39] - Gold prices showed an upward trend, while international crude oil prices experienced a downward trend[37] - The US 10-year Treasury yield declined, reflecting a mixed performance in European bond yields[39]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Views - Since late June, the A-share market has been rising, primarily driven by loose liquidity. International capital inflows into non - US dollar assets due to the "weak dollar" trend, and domestic enterprise deposit - loan data has improved, making the stock market more attractive. However, fundamental data remains at a low level, and there are pressures for the index to continue rising. In this context, the index is expected to fluctuate in the short term, and different investment strategies can be adopted [3]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Market Performance in July - **1.1: Liquidity - driven Index Rise** - In July, the liquidity - driven market led to an index increase. Wind All - A rose by 4.75%, reaching a new high for the year, with significantly higher average daily trading volume. The large - cap growth style was strong, and the barbell strategy that performed well in the first half of the year underperformed the average. Specific index gains include: CSI 1000 up 4.8%, CSI 500 up 5.25%, SSE 50 up 2.36%, and SSE 300 up 3.54% [6]. - **1.2: Index Valuation at 1 - standard - deviation Level** - The index valuation is at the 1 - standard - deviation level, but no further detailed analysis is provided in the text [7]. - **1.3: Volatility and Margin Trading** - The implied volatility of index options rebounded. The 1000IV closed at 22.87%, and the 300IV at 19.11%. Margin trading balance increased significantly, rising by 132.4 billion yuan in July to 1.96 trillion yuan [14]. - **1.4: Sector - driven Index Rise** - In July, the pharmaceutical, electronics, and non - bank financial sectors drove the index up, as shown by their positive contributions to various major indices such as CSI 1000, CSI 500, SSE 300, and SSE 50 [15]. 2. Market Influencing Factors - **2.1: Sino - US Capital Market Linkage** - There are multiple ways of linkage between Sino - US capital markets, including economic - related (SSE 300 moves in tandem with US stocks), capital - related (CSI 1000 moves in tandem with US stocks), negative - related (due to the rise of the US AI industry), risk re - balancing (international funds increase positions in China), and non - related (due to different domestic pressures in the two countries) [23]. - **2.3: Foreign Capital Inflow Preference** - Foreign capital inflows tend to favor the large - cap growth style [26]. - **2.4: Increase in Corporate Deposits and Loans in June** - In June, both corporate deposits and loans increased, but no specific data is provided in the text [28]. - **2.5: Domestic Capital Inflow into the Stock Market** - Due to the relatively high equity risk premium, domestic capital is more inclined to flow into the stock market [32]. - **2.6: Capital Flow to Low - Valued Non - Core Themes** - Capital in the capital market tends to flow to low - valued non - core themes that were undervalued in the early stage [33]. 3. Index and Option Performance - **3.1: CSI 1000 Index** - The CSI 1000 index rose by 4.8% in July, and the annualized convergence of the basis discount was observed [41]. - **3.2: CSI 500 Index** - The CSI 500 index rose by 5.26% in July, with a relatively high annualized convergence of the basis discount [45]. - **3.3: SSE 300 Index** - The SSE 300 index rose by 3.54% in July, and the annualized convergence of the basis discount was observed [47]. - **3.4: SSE 50 Index** - The SSE 50 index rose by 2.36% in July, and the annualized convergence of the basis discount was observed [51]. - **3.5: CSI 1000 Option Indicators** - Various indicators of CSI 1000 options, such as historical volatility, volatility cone, and PCR, are presented, but no detailed analysis is provided [55]. - **3.6: SSE 300 Option Indicators** - Various indicators of SSE 300 options, such as historical volatility, volatility cone, and PCR, are presented, but no detailed analysis is provided [64]. - **3.7: SSE 50 Option Indicators** - Various indicators of SSE 50 options, such as historical volatility, volatility cone, and PCR, are presented, but no detailed analysis is provided [73]. 4. Trading Slippage - **4.1: IM Trading Slippage** - The trading slippage of IM contracts, including long - and short - position slippage, is presented, but no detailed analysis is provided [81]. - **4.2: IC Trading Slippage** - The trading slippage of IC contracts, including long - and short - position slippage, is presented, but no detailed analysis is provided [84]. - **4.3: IF Trading Slippage** - The trading slippage of IF contracts, including long - and short - position slippage, is presented, but no detailed analysis is provided [86]. - **4.4: IH Trading Slippage** - The trading slippage of IH contracts, including long - and short - position slippage, is presented, but no detailed analysis is provided [89].

Summary of Conference Call Records Industry or Company Involved - The records cover various industries including technology, military, environmental services, and pharmaceuticals, with specific mentions of companies like China Electronics, Hanlan Environment, and Baiji Shenzhou. Core Points and Arguments Trade and Currency Dynamics - The easing of trade tensions between the US and China has positively impacted the stock market, with the US market recovering to pre-trade war levels [1] - The depreciation of the US dollar is expected to lead to capital flows into the Asia-Pacific markets, particularly benefiting major economies in the region [2] Market Performance and Investment Focus - April's market performance was strong, particularly in growth and technology sectors, although these sectors showed relative weakness [3] - The focus for May should be on sectors like technology, self-sufficiency in manufacturing, and improvements in fundamentals such as semiconductors and innovative pharmaceuticals [4][5] Artificial Intelligence and Data - The future of technology is expected to be driven by artificial intelligence, with a significant gap in data availability between China and the US being a critical factor [6][7] - High-quality datasets are becoming a key competitive advantage in AI applications, with companies encouraged to protect their data [8] Company-Specific Insights - China Electronics is projected to see significant growth in IT data business revenue, with expectations of tripling revenue in the coming year [9] - The military and aerospace sectors are expected to benefit from increased demand for domestic production and exports, particularly in the context of geopolitical tensions [10][12] Financial Performance and Projections - The company involved in military-grade alloys has shown stable profitability with a gross margin around 30%, and is expected to see revenue growth from 1.5 billion to 4 billion by 2025 [13][14] - Hanlan Environment is highlighted for its strong cash flow and potential for increased dividends, with a projected significant rise in cash distribution capabilities [16][18] Environmental Services Sector - The garbage incineration power generation sector is expected to see operational efficiency improvements, with potential for significant revenue growth through partnerships with data centers [19][20] - The sector is compared to distributed nuclear power in terms of stability and economic viability, indicating a strong future outlook [20][21] Pharmaceutical Industry - Baiji Shenzhou is recognized for its strong R&D capabilities and global commercialization potential, with projected profit growth reaching 6.7 billion by 2027 [32][35] - The company is positioned as a leader in blood cancer treatment, with multiple innovative drugs entering clinical stages [34][35] Robotics and Automation - The robotics sector is expected to see growth driven by partnerships with major companies like Tesla, with a projected 20% growth in the automotive sector [44] - The industrial automation segment is recovering, with significant growth anticipated in traditional industries and new energy sectors [46] Other Important but Possibly Overlooked Content - The records indicate a strong emphasis on the importance of data security and the competitive landscape in AI, highlighting the need for companies to protect their proprietary data [8] - The environmental services sector is undergoing a transformation with increased efficiency and potential for higher returns, which may not be fully recognized by the market [19][20] - The military and aerospace sectors are underlined as critical areas for investment, particularly in light of ongoing geopolitical tensions and domestic production initiatives [10][12]

Group 1 - The report highlights a significant inflow into Chinese fixed-income funds, with a total inflow of $130.44 billion in June 2025, compared to $49.07 billion in the previous month [29][18][49] - In contrast, the Chinese equity market experienced a marginal outflow of $37.16 billion, indicating a shift in investor preference towards fixed-income assets [15][18][48] - Emerging markets saw a notable inflow of $210.85 billion in fixed-income funds, with China being a major contributor [29][49] Group 2 - The report indicates that global funds have been reallocating towards U.S. equities, with a net inflow of $168.62 billion in June 2025, while European equities saw a decrease in allocation [15][4] - The U.S. equity market experienced a shift in sector allocations, with significant outflows from technology and healthcare sectors, while essential consumer goods, industrials, and utilities saw inflows [38][41] - Emerging markets, particularly India, have shown a relatively higher inflow into equity funds, contrasting with the outflows observed in the Chinese equity market [16][48]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the recent trends in the US dollar, highlighting the divergence between a weakening dollar and rising US Treasury yields, suggesting caution in interpreting these signals as indicative of a broader trend towards de-dollarization [2]. Group 1: Conceptual Clarification - Two key concepts are defined: de-dollarization transactions, which involve selling dollar assets and reflect a contraction of US asset exposure, and weak dollar transactions, which do not require reducing dollar asset exposure but rather increasing short positions on the dollar [3]. Group 2: Background Context - Background 1: Since the strong dollar cycle began in 2014-2015, overseas institutions have maintained dollar exposure to benefit from both US Treasury yield spreads and dollar appreciation. By 2024-2025, major global pension funds have reduced their dollar hedging ratios to historical lows, indicating a significant dollar exposure [4]. - Background 2: There is a positive correlation between the dollar hedging ratios of pension funds and exchange rate volatility; higher volatility leads to stronger hedging demand [4]. Group 3: Current Analysis - Following the implementation of equal tariffs on April 3, the volatility of the dollar exchange rate has increased significantly. For institutions with large dollar exposures, there are two strategies: de-dollarization transactions or weak dollar transactions. The article leans towards weak dollar transactions as the primary reality, noting no significant outflows from US equities or bonds and a rise in speculative short positions on the dollar [5]. Group 4: Future Predictions - To predict the future of the dollar, two questions are posed: whether the short positions on the dollar have been fully covered and the structure of the holders of these short positions. Current data suggests that while some institutions have raised their hedging ratios, the momentum for covering short positions may have peaked, indicating a potential end to rapid dollar depreciation [9][10]. - The concentration of dollar short positions is at a historical low, suggesting a fragile trading structure. If the US economy remains stable and tech stocks perform well, there may be a risk of a rebound in the dollar as volatility decreases [10]. - Overall, the macro environment is characterized as "internal stability with external changes," with the narrative of de-dollarization being misinterpreted. The article concludes that the weakening of the dollar is nearing its end, with potential for a period of volatility or even a rebound [11].