Core Viewpoint - The UK employment data indicates a rising unemployment rate, which keeps the Bank of England on a path towards potential interest rate cuts despite ongoing inflationary pressures [1] Group 1: Employment Data - The unemployment rate has continued to rise, reaching its highest level since 2021, with the three-month ILO unemployment rate slightly above expectations [1] - June employment data is expected to show further weakness, even though May's data was revised upwards [1] Group 2: Wage Growth - Real wages are projected to continue declining, with the total wage growth rate for three months in May at 1.0% and regular wage growth at 1.1%, marking the lowest levels since mid-2023 [1] Group 3: Monetary Policy Implications - The Bank of England may find some comfort in the easing price pressures, which could influence their decision-making regarding interest rates [1]

Core Viewpoint - The higher-than-expected inflation rate in the UK may lead the Bank of England to adopt a more cautious approach regarding future interest rate cuts, despite the possibility of a rate cut in August [1] Inflation Data Summary - The annual CPI inflation rate in June rose to 3.6%, up from 3.4% in May, indicating persistent cost pressures [1] - This inflation rate deviates from the Bank of England's target of 2%, suggesting that basic prices remain too firm [1] Economic Context - Global trade disruptions and rising business costs could lead to further temporary price increases during the summer [1] - However, economic downturn and a weak labor market indicate that inflation rates are likely to decline in the future [1]

Core Viewpoint - Despite a slight increase in UK inflation in June, the Bank of England may still lower interest rates in August due to a weakening labor market and expectations of inflation decreasing by the end of 2025 [1] Group 1: Inflation and Economic Indicators - UK inflation has shown a minor uptick, but the overall trend indicates a decline from the highs seen between 2021 and 2023 [1] - The labor market is softening, characterized by slowing wage growth and a reduction in job vacancies, which influences the Bank of England's decision-making [1] Group 2: Monetary Policy Outlook - The expectation is that inflation will start to recede by the end of 2025, providing a rationale for potential interest rate cuts [1] - The Bank of England is anticipated to maintain a cautious approach in its monetary policy despite the recent inflationary pressures [1]

Core Viewpoint - The British pound has strengthened due to higher-than-expected inflation in the UK, but the increase is expected to be limited in the future [1] Inflation Data - The UK's Consumer Price Index (CPI) annual rate rose from 3.4% in May to 3.6% in June, surpassing expectations of remaining flat [1] - This inflation rate is significantly above the Bank of England's target of 2%, which may reduce the likelihood of interest rate cuts by the Bank of England [1] Analyst Insights - Analyst Michael Field from Morningstar attributes the rise in the pound primarily to changes in the UK's energy price cap [1] - Field suggests that the factors driving the pound's increase are likely to dissipate over the coming months, which could allow the Bank of England to lower interest rates [1]

Core Viewpoint - The UK inflation rate for June exceeded expectations, leading to a reduced likelihood of an interest rate cut in August, although two cuts are still anticipated by the end of the year [1] Summary by Relevant Sections - **Inflation Data**: The June CPI data showed a core inflation rate of 3.7%, surpassing the highest market forecast of 3.6% [1] - **Market Expectations**: Prior to the data release, the market was pricing in a 53 basis point cut by the Bank of England before the end of the year [1] - **Future Rate Cuts**: While the possibility of a rate cut in August appears limited, there remains potential for two rate cuts in the subsequent three meetings after August [1]

Group 1 - The UK economy showed signs of stagnation or mild recession, with May GDP declining by 0.1%, below the expected growth of 0.1%, marking the second consecutive month of contraction [2] - Industrial output fell by 0.9% in May, significantly below the expected flat performance, while manufacturing output decreased by 1%, indicating increased economic downward pressure [2] - Market expectations for the Bank of England to accelerate interest rate cuts have risen, with speculation of multiple cuts within the year [2] Group 2 - Silver prices have been trading within a clear upward channel since early April, fluctuating between $35.50 and $37.00 over the past four weeks [3] - The psychological resistance level at $37.00 remains unbroken, with $37.30 being a key upward barrier [3] - If silver prices break above $37.00, it may confirm a continuation of the bullish trend, targeting the $38.00-$38.50 range, while initial support is at $36.22 [3]

金十数据7月11日讯，荷兰国际银行分析师James Smith警告说，英国央行可能不得不考虑加快降息步 伐。此前，英国经济5月份意外连续第二个月出现萎缩。虽然从0.1%的收缩就断定英国经济正在衰退是 错误的，但最近的就业市场数据显示，英国正承受着严重的压力。James Smith表示，英国央行自去年 以来一直坚持非常缓慢的降息步伐，但其目前对劳动力市场的看法可能过于乐观。风险显然倾向于在年 底前更频繁地降息。 荷兰国际银行：英国央行可能需要更快降息以支撑疲软经济 ...

Core Viewpoint - The latest UK monthly GDP data is weaker than expected, increasing the likelihood of an interest rate cut by the Bank of England in August [1] Economic Data Summary - The UK GDP contracted by 0.1% in May, indicating economic weakness [1] - Weakness in the services and manufacturing sectors contributed to this contraction, highlighting the fragility of the post-inflation recovery [1] Central Bank Implications - The Bank of England may interpret this data as a signal that the monetary environment is exerting pressure on the economy, potentially leading to a vote in favor of an interest rate cut in August [1]

| m | 贵金属日评20250704: 美国6月新增非农高于预期前值,特朗普政府将对各国设定新税率 | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 交易日期 | 较上周变化 | 较昨日变化 | 2025-07-03 | 2025-07-02 | 2025-06-27 | 收盘价 | 781.28 | 5.24 | 14. 88 | 776. 04 | 766. 40 | | | | | 成交重 | 202457.00 | 189582.00 | 169217.00 | -12,875.00 | 20, 365. 00 | 期货活跃台约 | 持仓量 | 175461.00 | 129822.00 | 6, 865. 00 | 45, 639, 00 | 168596.00 | | | | 库存(干克) | 18456.00 | 18237.00 | 18456. 00 | 0. 00 | 219.00 | 上海黄金 ...

Core Viewpoint - Morgan Stanley analysts suggest that the Bank of England may accelerate interest rate cuts in the second half of 2025 due to anticipated economic slowdown and uncertainty in tax revenue from the autumn budget [1] Economic Outlook - Economic activity in the UK is expected to decline in the coming months, prompting the Bank of England to potentially lower interest rates faster than market expectations [1] - The current benchmark interest rate of the Bank of England is projected to decrease from 4.25% to 3.25% by the end of the year [1]