智通财经6月18日电，交易员小幅降低英国央行降息押注，预计年底前将下调47个基点。 ...

交易员略微减少了对英国央行降息的押注，预计到年底将累计降息47个基点。 ...

Core Insights - The UK Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose by 3.4% year-on-year in May, aligning with the Bank of England's (BoE) forecast [1] - The service sector inflation rate decreased from 5.4% to 4.7%, meeting the BoE's expectations, indicating a key indicator of domestic price pressures [1] - The rise in food prices, including chocolate and meat, offset declines in airfare and fuel prices, contributing to the overall inflation picture [1] Economic Implications - Following the data release, the British pound continued to strengthen, with the market pricing in two additional 25 basis point rate cuts by the BoE this year [1] - The ongoing conflict between Israel and Iran may complicate future decisions by the BoE, as oil prices have surged approximately 14% over the past week [1] - While investors and economists believe the likelihood of a rate cut in the upcoming Thursday meeting is low, the August meeting may still allow for further actions [1]

金十数据6月17日讯，Saltus投资经理Tom Matterson在一份报告中说，如果英国通胀继续回落，英国央 行可能在未来几个月继续降息。市场普遍预计英国央行将在周四的利率决定中维持利率在4.25%不变。 但疲弱的劳动力市场数据和不断放缓的工资增长表明，进一步降息的大门仍然敞开。 机构：英国央行可能在未来几个月继续降息 ...

Core Viewpoint - The decline in UK GDP provides further justification for the Bank of England to consider an interest rate cut in August [1] Economic Performance - The GDP shrank by 0.3% in April, supporting the view that the 0.7% growth in the first quarter was unsustainable [1] - Second-quarter data may exaggerate economic weakness, alleviating concerns about a recession [1] External Factors - New tariffs and domestic companies cutting spending to offset increased costs from tax hikes in April are expected to drag on the economy due to weak overseas demand [1] - Despite these challenges, the current economic conditions are not sufficient to prompt an interest rate cut by the Bank of England next week [1]

智通财经6月12日电，GDP数据公布后，交易员对英国央行今年降息的押注升至52个基点。 ...

金十数据6月10日讯，IFR市场分析师Divyang Shah表示，周二公布的英国劳动力市场数据强化了市场对 英国央行降息的预期，但预计英国央行仍将按季度降息。目前8月会议降息的概率为75%（数据公布前 为60%），11月为65%（数据公布前为55%）。数据显示，就业和工资增长放缓，劳动力市场进一步走 软反映去年10月预算案中国民保险缴费上调及最低工资提升的滞后影响。相较于上月货币政策委员会 （MPC）三派分歧（7-2-0投票结果），最新数据推动政策天平向"季度性降息"倾斜。5月支持降息的5 位委员均基于"薪资增速年底前将显著放缓"的判断。 分析师：英国劳动力数据强化降息预期，但季度性宽松节奏不改 ...

Core Viewpoint - The UK economy is showing signs of accelerated cooling, which may prompt the Bank of England to expedite interest rate cuts [1] Group 1: Economic Indicators - The hiring intentions in the UK are weakening, as noted by Jack Kennedy, a senior economist at Indeed [1] - Recent data from the Office for National Statistics indicates that wage growth and employment declines have exceeded expectations, suggesting a faster-than-anticipated economic slowdown [1] Group 2: Government Policies - Government policies such as increased minimum wage, new worker protection measures, and higher employer tax burdens are suppressing companies' willingness to hire [1] - The cautious sentiment in the labor market is exacerbated by global adverse factors and uncertainties surrounding worker rights legislation, contributing to rising employer costs in April [1]

Group 1 - The core point of the article is that UK retail sales data for April exceeded expectations, yet the British pound showed little change [1] - Ebury analyst Phil Monkhouse noted that while the retail sales data is encouraging, the higher-than-expected inflation in April may limit the likelihood of the Bank of England lowering interest rates in the coming months [1]

巴克莱：预计英国央行在6月不会降息，之前的预测为降息25个基点。 ...