| m | 贵金属日评20250704: 美国6月新增非农高于预期前值,特朗普政府将对各国设定新税率 | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 交易日期 | 较上周变化 | 较昨日变化 | 2025-07-03 | 2025-07-02 | 2025-06-27 | 收盘价 | 781.28 | 5.24 | 14. 88 | 776. 04 | 766. 40 | | | | | 成交重 | 202457.00 | 189582.00 | 169217.00 | -12,875.00 | 20, 365. 00 | 期货活跃台约 | 持仓量 | 175461.00 | 129822.00 | 6, 865. 00 | 45, 639, 00 | 168596.00 | | | | 库存(干克) | 18456.00 | 18237.00 | 18456. 00 | 0. 00 | 219.00 | 上海黄金 ...

Core Viewpoint - Morgan Stanley analysts suggest that the Bank of England may accelerate interest rate cuts in the second half of 2025 due to anticipated economic slowdown and uncertainty in tax revenue from the autumn budget [1] Economic Outlook - Economic activity in the UK is expected to decline in the coming months, prompting the Bank of England to potentially lower interest rates faster than market expectations [1] - The current benchmark interest rate of the Bank of England is projected to decrease from 4.25% to 3.25% by the end of the year [1]

| 元用用模 贵金属日评20250702: 鲍威尔表示未排除7月降息可能,美国6月ISM制造业PMI小于50 | | | --- | --- | | 持仓量 | | | 18453.00 18237.00 18213.00 216. 00 240. 00 上海黄金 收盘价 772.04 764. 15 771.68 7.89 0. 36 (元/克) 现货沪金T+D | | | 成交重 39118.00 57766.00 35850.00 -18, 648. 00 3, 268. 00 持包量 217596.00 219956.00 209866. 00 -2, 360. 00 7.730.00 价差(近月与远月) 近月连续-远月活跃 -3.86 -1.80 -1. 46 -2. 06 -2. 40 基差(现货与期货) 现货价格-期货价格 -4. 06 -3. 43 -2. 26 -0. 63 -1.80 | | | 收盘价 8810.00 8762. 00 8726.00 48. 00 84. 00 成交重 342536.00 504424.00 606376.00 -161,888.00 -263, 840 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that the British pound may weaken if upcoming UK data is disappointing, despite the Bank of England's gradual rate cut approach [1] - Analysts at ING expect two more rate cuts from the Bank of England this year, with market expectations potentially adjusting for more cuts if data is weak [1] - The recent decision by the Bank of England to maintain interest rates with a 6-3 vote indicates a slightly dovish stance, reinforcing expectations for a rate cut in August [1] Group 2 - ING forecasts that the EUR/GBP exchange rate may rise to around 0.8600 in the near term [1]

Group 1 - Traders have increased their bets on the Bank of England lowering interest rates in August, with the probability of a rate cut reaching 80% [1]

Core Viewpoint - The Bank of England may hint at a potential interest rate cut in August due to a weakening labor market and easing inflation, despite rising energy prices from ongoing conflicts in the Middle East [1] Group 1 - Analysts from Tickmill Group suggest that the upcoming interest rate decision may indicate a possible rate cut in August [1] - Recent data shows a softening labor market in the UK and a reduction in inflation, raising questions about the Bank of England's outlook [1] - The ongoing conflicts in the Middle East have led to increased energy prices, which could diminish the likelihood of a rate cut in August [1] Group 2 - The market widely expects the Bank of England to maintain the interest rate at 4.25% in the upcoming statement [1]

智通财经6月18日电，交易员小幅降低英国央行降息押注，预计年底前将下调47个基点。 ...

交易员略微减少了对英国央行降息的押注，预计到年底将累计降息47个基点。 ...

Core Insights - The UK Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose by 3.4% year-on-year in May, aligning with the Bank of England's (BoE) forecast [1] - The service sector inflation rate decreased from 5.4% to 4.7%, meeting the BoE's expectations, indicating a key indicator of domestic price pressures [1] - The rise in food prices, including chocolate and meat, offset declines in airfare and fuel prices, contributing to the overall inflation picture [1] Economic Implications - Following the data release, the British pound continued to strengthen, with the market pricing in two additional 25 basis point rate cuts by the BoE this year [1] - The ongoing conflict between Israel and Iran may complicate future decisions by the BoE, as oil prices have surged approximately 14% over the past week [1] - While investors and economists believe the likelihood of a rate cut in the upcoming Thursday meeting is low, the August meeting may still allow for further actions [1]

金十数据6月17日讯，Saltus投资经理Tom Matterson在一份报告中说，如果英国通胀继续回落，英国央 行可能在未来几个月继续降息。市场普遍预计英国央行将在周四的利率决定中维持利率在4.25%不变。 但疲弱的劳动力市场数据和不断放缓的工资增长表明，进一步降息的大门仍然敞开。 机构：英国央行可能在未来几个月继续降息 ...