银河证券表示，中美经贸和谈元首会晤达成重要共识，市场宏观预期与风险偏好有望改善，美联储在四 季度持续的降息与可能的停止缩表并开始扩表有望提升市场流动性，这均将有利于铜铝等工业金属大宗 商品价格上涨。而海外铜铝龙头企业事故频发对全球供应的扰动也将提升铜铝的价格弹性。2025Q4铜 铝行业业绩增速有望进一步提升。 在中美关税谈判达成日内瓦协议后，市场宏观预期改善、风险偏好提升，叠加美国就业市场出现恶化迹 象下市场对美联储在三季度重新开启降息的预期升温，以及国内"反内卷"的政策指引，共同推动有色金 属大宗商品价格稳步上行，使有色金属企业在三季度的盈利能力与业绩继续环比提升。且由于去年三季 度有色金属价格下跌形成的2024Q3有色金属行业业绩低基数的影响，使2025Q3A股有色金属行业业绩 同比增速加速上行。A股有色金属行业2025年前三季度营业收入同比增长10.02%，业绩同比增长 46.64%；A股有色金属行业2025Q3单季度营业收入同比增长16.57%，业绩同比增长52.08%。 智通财经APP获悉，银河证券发布研究报告称，国内外储能需求旺盛，以及进入2026年国内新能源汽车 购置税减免政策退坡或将引发年底抢 ...

Core Viewpoint - The A-share market is experiencing volatility, but overall corporate earnings are in a recovery phase, with a positive medium-term outlook supported by stable economic and policy expectations [2][3]. Market Performance - As of November 10, 2025, the CSI 300 Index decreased by 0.24%, with notable stock movements including China Duty Free leading with a 10.00% increase and Sanhua Intelligent Control dropping by 7.02% [2]. - The CSI 300 ETF by Bosera fell by 0.33%, with a recent price of 1.52 yuan, while it saw a cumulative increase of 0.73% over the past week as of November 7 [2]. Investment Strategy - Analysts suggest focusing on sectors with independent growth logic and improving return on equity (ROE), rather than avoiding AI narratives entirely [3]. - The current market style is expected to be more balanced compared to the third quarter, with recommendations to invest in technology growth and high-end manufacturing sectors, as well as cyclical sectors benefiting from domestic demand recovery [3]. Sector Analysis - The TMT sector, along with materials and chemicals, is significantly influenced by AI narratives, with these sectors comprising over 60% of institutional holdings [3]. - The top ten weighted stocks in the CSI 300 Index as of October 31, 2025, include Ningde Times and Kweichow Moutai, accounting for 21.76% of the index [4].

Group 1 - Notable fund managers have increased their positions in Hong Kong stocks during the third quarter, particularly in AI applications and innovative pharmaceuticals, leading to discussions about a potential market rebound in Hong Kong [1] - Daiwa Securities Group reported that mainland Chinese investors are realizing profits in Hong Kong stocks through the Stock Connect mechanism, with a focus on sectors such as electronics, computers, and military industries, while also increasing holdings in high-dividend stocks like energy and metal producers [1] Group 2 - Citic Securities' research indicates that not only the TMT sector but also non-ferrous metals and chemicals are experiencing price increases influenced by AI narratives, with these sectors collectively accounting for over 60% of institutional holdings [4] - The strategy for portfolio adjustment is not to avoid AI narratives but to select stocks with a rising trend in ROE from a low base, suggesting that AI narratives are affecting the slope of market trends rather than the overall trend itself [4]

Core Insights - The report from CITIC Securities indicates that market volatility has increased since October, but the success rate of market timing remains low due to changes in the underlying structure of incremental capital, with steady absolute return funds entering the market, reducing the effectiveness of traditional aggressive timing strategies [1][3] Market Volatility and Timing - Since October, the market has experienced two rounds of emotional volatility, with the first triggered by Trump's new tariff threats leading to a rapid reduction in active capital and a drop in daily trading volume from 2.5 trillion yuan to 1.7 trillion yuan [1] - The second round of volatility occurred after the meeting between the US and Chinese leaders, where active capital reduced positions due to uncertainties in US-China relations and high market positions approaching year-end [1][2] Structural Opportunities - Despite the volatility, the number of stocks reaching new highs has increased, with 232 stocks hitting 12-month highs by November 6, compared to 216 on September 30 [2] - The number of stocks reaching new highs in the past month rose from 384 on September 30 to 680 on November 6, indicating ongoing structural opportunities in the market [2] Steady Capital Inflow - Steady absolute return funds are increasingly entering the market, diminishing the effectiveness of traditional active timing strategies [3] - The influx of funds through stable return products is driven by declining interest rates on deposits and bank wealth management products, leading to a potential theoretical increase of 1.56 trillion yuan in the A-share market if 30% of new insurance premiums are allocated to equities [3][4] Comparison of Fund Flows - In the first nine months of the year, active public funds raised approximately 109.5 billion yuan, while passive products raised about 327 billion yuan, indicating a significant disparity compared to the potential inflow from insurance [4] - The behavior of ETF flows shows a counter-cyclical characteristic, with net inflows occurring during market corrections, highlighting a trend of "buying on dips" [5][6] Key Variables Impacting Market Trends - The stability of the overseas business environment and the construction of AI infrastructure are crucial variables affecting market trends, with the A-share market increasingly influenced by global fundamentals and US-China relations [7] - The share of overseas revenue for A-share companies is approaching 20%, indicating a growing sensitivity to international economic cycles [7] AI Infrastructure and Market Sentiment - The sustainability of AI infrastructure investment is critical for both US and A-share markets, with significant exposure to AI-related sectors [8] - Concerns about the commercial viability of AI and its impact on investment costs are prevalent, as evidenced by rising CDS spreads for major North American tech companies [8] Portfolio Adjustment Strategies - CITIC Securities suggests focusing on sectors with independent growth potential and improving ROE, rather than solely on AI narratives, to mitigate risks associated with market volatility [9][10] - The consumer sector, with a market cap share of only 7.5%, is highlighted as a relatively independent investment opportunity worth monitoring [10]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the report indicates that China's ROE (Return on Equity) is on a rising trend while the US ROE is on a declining trend, suggesting a potential divergence in economic cycles between the two countries [2][3] - Recent data suggests that China's export and price data reflect the effects of anti-involution, with expectations for continued strengthening of corporate profits in China [3][8] - The debt expansion in the US AI industry may reinforce expectations for price improvement and corporate profitability in China, but it could also exacerbate stagflation characteristics in the US, posing risks to US stock performance [3][9] Group 2 - The report highlights a significant decline in China's export growth, with October exports showing a year-on-year decrease of 1.1%, down from 8.3% previously, primarily affected by a drop in exports to the EU [8] - The report notes that the global manufacturing PMI did not weaken in October, indicating that the decline in China's export growth may be more related to supply-side improvements rather than demand-side factors [8] - The report emphasizes that under a recovering price environment, market sentiment may shift towards value stocks, with a focus on export prices and US consumer data in the future [3][9] Group 3 - The report suggests that the configuration of energy investments should primarily respond to the overheating expectations of US AI investments, recommending a focus on short to medium-term trading strategies [3] - Long-term investment opportunities are identified in sectors such as insurance, anti-involution industries, Chinese internet companies, and military trade [3][9] - The report indicates that the performance of the A-share market is expected to rise while the US stock market may decline, reflecting the contrasting economic cycles of China and the US [3][9]

Group 1 - The A-share market is currently in a phase of balancing between policy expectations and economic realities, with a focus on maintaining reasonable liquidity through monetary policy [2] - The market is expected to shift from "monetary easing" to "fiscal expectations," with anticipated stronger fiscal policies aimed at expanding domestic demand and building a modern industrial system [2] - The "new quality productivity" and "domestic circulation" themes are expected to remain active despite the overall market maintaining a state of fluctuation [2] Group 2 - Growth style is expected to continue to outperform in the annual context, but the fourth quarter may see a stronger shift in investment styles, particularly towards undervalued sectors [3] - The strength of style changes in the fourth quarter may surpass that of valuation adjustments, influenced by the relative valuation advantages of value stocks compared to growth stocks [3] - The cyclical sectors may benefit from policies aimed at reducing competition and improving the fundamental outlook in the coming year [3] Group 3 - Recent market price increases are driven by anticipations of a cyclical upturn in the coming year, with historical patterns indicating that certain years are associated with rising PPI [4] - The overlap of China's five-year cycle and the U.S. four-year cycle is expected to culminate in a significant year for industrial metal prices in 2026 [4] - Current cyclical investment opportunities include sectors such as non-ferrous metals, steel, and building materials, which are seen as favorable for positioning [4] Group 4 - The market has experienced increased volatility since October, with a shift in the underlying structure of incremental capital affecting traditional aggressive timing strategies [5] - The stability of the corporate overseas environment and developments in AI are critical variables influencing market dynamics, impacting various sectors including TMT, non-ferrous metals, and chemicals [5] - The strategy for portfolio adjustment is focused on selecting stocks with a rising trend in ROE rather than avoiding AI narratives, which are seen as influencing market slopes rather than overall trends [5]

Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - The company reported a net income of PEN 456 million for the quarter, representing an 81% increase year-over-year, with a return on equity (ROE) of approximately 16% [9][16] - The accumulated ROE for the first nine months of 2025 stands at 17.4%, which would have been 18.3% excluding the one-off impact from Rutas de Lima [15][16] - The risk-adjusted net interest margin (NIM) improved by 60 basis points over the past quarter, with a current NIM of 3.8% [9][28] Business Line Data and Key Metrics Changes - Interbank's loan portfolio grew by over 5% year-over-year, with higher-yielding loans increasing by 7% [21][39] - Interseguro reported strong performance in private annuities and life insurance, with retail premiums growing by 58% year-over-year [10][35] - Inteligo's assets under management reached new record highs, growing at a double-digit pace [7][32] Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - Peru's GDP growth was reported at 3.3% as of August, with private investment projected to grow by 6.5% by year-end [4][12] - Inflation in Peru remains low at around 1.7%, and the Peruvian sol has appreciated by approximately 10% this year [4][11] - The internal demand projection for 2025 has been revised upward to 5.1%, driven by strong growth in private investment and consumption [13][14] Company Strategy and Development Direction - The company aims to achieve digital excellence and deepen primary client relationships through data-driven services and innovation [7][10] - There is a focus on maintaining profitability while expanding into higher-yielding loan segments and enhancing the payments ecosystem with PLIN and Easy Pay [23][25] - The company is committed to long-term sustainability and profitability, adapting quickly to market changes [6][7] Management's Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - Management maintains a cautious outlook due to international conditions and the pre-election period but remains optimistic about Peru's economic stability [4][5] - The company expects to navigate challenges related to pension fund withdrawals while focusing on higher-yielding segments [23][50] - The outlook for 2026 anticipates moderate growth in internal demand and a stable economic environment despite potential political uncertainties [12][14] Other Important Information - The company has provisioned around 40% of its exposure related to Rutas de Lima, which represents less than 1% of its total investment holdings [46][48] - The cost of risk remains low at 2.1%, with expectations for gradual increases as the consumer and small business portfolios expand [27][28] - The company continues to invest in technology and talent to support long-term growth ambitions, with a cost-to-income ratio of 37.7% [20][39] Q&A Session Summary Question: Regarding Rutas de Lima and its impairment level - Management indicated that 40% of impairment has been booked, and the situation is being closely monitored as legal proceedings continue [46][47] Question: Impact of pension withdrawals on retail growth - Management noted that pension withdrawals may have a short-term negative impact on growth but could also lead to increased liquidity and improved collections [50][51] Question: Expected loan growth for 2025 and 2026 - Management expects to continue accelerating growth in credit cards and consumer finance, with a focus on gaining market share [58][59] Question: Corporate-level disbursements in 2026 - Management anticipates mild growth in corporate activity, primarily focused on working capital replenishment and small CapEx, with no large projects expected [63][64]

Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - The underlying EPS for Q3 2025 was $1.86, reflecting a 6% increase year over year [4][16] - Underlying net income reached $1.047 billion, up 3% from the previous year [16] - The underlying return on equity (ROE) was 18.3%, an increase from the prior year [17] - Book value per share grew 2% year over year, with a quarterly increase of 3% [19] Business Line Data and Key Metrics Changes - Individual protection sales increased by 35%, while group health and protection sales grew by 12% [4] - Health and protection underlying earnings decreased by 18% year over year due to unfavorable insurance experience in the U.S. [16] - Asset management and wealth underlying earnings rose by 5% year over year, driven by improved credit and higher fee income [16] - SLC Management's underlying net income was $54 million, up 15% year over year [21] Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - In Asia, individual protection sales grew by 38% year over year, with double-digit growth in six markets [26] - Canada reported net income of $422 million, a 13% increase from the prior year, driven by strong business growth [22] - U.S. underlying net income was $107 million, down 34% from the previous year, primarily due to unfavorable insurance experience [23] Company Strategy and Development Direction - The company aims for a medium-term objective of 10% underlying earnings growth and a 20% ROE [13] - Focus on improving U.S. dental business performance through repricing and growth of the commercial business [6] - Continued investment in asset management capabilities, with a target of leveraging synergies between asset management and insurance businesses [10] Management's Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - Management expressed confidence in navigating industry challenges, particularly in the U.S. health care space [5] - The company anticipates gradual improvement in the U.S. dental business as pricing adjustments are made [6] - Strong fundamentals and diversified business mix are expected to support continued growth [26] Other Important Information - The company announced a $0.04 increase in its dividend to $0.92 per share and repurchased approximately $400 million of shares in the quarter [7] - The LICAT ratio was reported at 154%, indicating a strong capital position [7] Q&A Session Summary Question: Expectations for Medicaid repricing starting in 2026 - Management is making reasonable progress with states on pricing, with gradual improvements expected in 2026 [36] Question: Growth in U.S. commercial premiums - Premiums have grown over 30% since the acquisition, with expectations for continued growth in commercial dental [38] Question: Details on asset management flows - The company noted lumpiness in flows but highlighted significant institutional gross sales and positive net inflows in public fixed income and active ETFs [42][46] Question: Unfavorable insurance experience in medical stop loss - The unfavorable experience was attributed to pricing shortfalls and late emergence of claims, with updates to loss ratio assumptions being made [54][58] Question: Outlook for Medicaid dental loss ratio - Management expects gradual improvement in the loss ratio as pricing adjustments are implemented [69] Question: Targeted return of 7% in stop loss - The current after-tax margin was reported at 6.9%, with expectations to move towards the targeted margin over time [108]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommend" rating for the company with a target price of 9.52 CNY [2][9]. Core Insights - The company's net profit for Q3 increased by 71% year-on-year, benefiting from market fluctuations. The return on equity (ROE) improved significantly, reaching 4.2%, up by 1.6 percentage points year-on-year [2][9]. - The overall business performance is positively correlated with market conditions, with notable growth in brokerage services, which saw a year-on-year increase of 152.3% [3][9]. - The company is progressing with its merger with Guorong Securities, which is expected to expand its business scale and development potential [9]. Financial Performance Summary - The total revenue for the reporting period, excluding other business income, was 36 billion CNY, representing a year-on-year increase of 38.4% [7]. - The net profit attributable to the parent company was 12.4 billion CNY, up 70.6% year-on-year [7]. - The company's total assets, excluding client funds, reached 820 billion CNY, an increase of 62 billion CNY year-on-year, with a net asset value of 297 billion CNY, up 14.2 billion CNY [8]. Business Segment Performance - Proprietary business revenue totaled 1.85 billion CNY, with a quarterly revenue of 590 million CNY, showing a decrease from the previous quarter [3]. - Brokerage business revenue was 980 million CNY for the quarter, reflecting a 68.5% increase quarter-on-quarter and a 152.3% increase year-on-year [3]. - Investment banking revenue was 280 million CNY, with a slight year-on-year increase [3]. Market Position and Valuation - The company’s current share price is 8.61 CNY, with a market capitalization of 38.483 billion CNY [4]. - The projected earnings per share (EPS) for 2025, 2026, and 2027 are 0.33 CNY, 0.35 CNY, and 0.38 CNY respectively, with corresponding price-to-book (PB) ratios of 1.31, 1.27, and 1.23 [10][9].

Core Viewpoint - The article highlights a stabilization and rebound in the ROE (Return on Equity) of A-shares, indicating a recovery in overall profitability across the market, with significant improvements in growth sectors such as TMT and the ChiNext board [3][4]. Group 1: Overall Market Performance - The ROE of the entire A-share market increased from 6.74% in Q3 2022 to 6.80% in Q3 2023, marking a year-on-year growth of 0.75% and breaking a downward trend [5][6]. - The growth sectors, particularly the ChiNext and technology-focused indices, showed substantial improvements, with the ROE of the ChiNext index rising by 12.30% year-on-year [7][8]. Group 2: Sector Analysis - The TMT (Technology, Media, and Telecommunications) sector maintained high growth, with the ROE of technology leaders increasing from 8.04% to 10.26%, a growth of 27.59% [16]. - The consumer sector exhibited mixed results, with the ROE of the consumer index declining from 17.18% to 16.51%, while the household appliances sector showed a slight increase from 12.66% to 12.90% [17][18]. - The pharmaceutical sector showed signs of stabilization, with the overall ROE rising from 8.43% to 8.52%, while the renewable energy sector began to show improvement, with the ROE of the photovoltaic industry increasing from 1.50% to 1.75% [19][20]. Group 3: Profitability Drivers - The rebound in A-share ROE is primarily driven by improvements in net profit margins and stabilization in asset turnover rates, indicating enhanced operational efficiency rather than increased leverage [22][23]. - The sectors with the most significant revenue improvements include TMT, financial services, and midstream manufacturing, while the consumer sector remains under pressure [24].