Company Overview - Casey's operates approximately 2,900 stores [6] and is a staple for millions of Americans [6] - The company has ~$19 billion in sitone nenc eor esv T tl E t i V l T t l T M b G T i Y t to a n e r p r s e a e o a e a m e m e r s u e s r a n s a c o n s p e r e a r u O [6] - Casey's is the 3rd largest convenience store chain and 5th largest pizza chain in the U S [6] - Approximately 75% of towns between 500 and 20,000 in Casey's distribution center footprint do not have a Casey's location [53] Financial Performance and Strategy - Casey's aims to deliver top quintile EBITDA growth of 8-10% [25] - The company targets free cash flow of approximately $1 25 billion through FY2026 [28] - Casey's has consistently delivered 8+% EBITDA growth over the short, medium, and long-term horizon [34] - In FY25, Casey's generated $585 million in free cash flow, compared to $136 million in FY19 [77] - Return on invested capital (ROIC) improved to 11 5% in FY25, up approximately 240 bps from FY19 [77] Strategic Differentiators - Approximately 70% of Casey's inside transactions do not include fuel [18] - Casey's has reduced the sales mix of the tobacco category on acquired stores by 450 bps [22] - Strategic investments in digital and food have resulted in a 41 5% inside gross margin, which is +750 bps higher than the industry average [22]

Core Viewpoint - The narrative surrounding Alibaba in 2023 has shifted towards "revival," focusing on a transition from "quantity" to "quality" in operations, alongside significant investments in AI, which have restored market confidence [2] Group 1: Financial Performance and Strategy - After entering a series of efficiency optimization reforms post-2022, Alibaba's primary financial metric, ROIC (Return on Invested Capital), is now targeted to return to double digits [3][9] - In Q1 of 2025, Alibaba's capital expenditure reached 86 billion yuan, more than double the previous year's 32.1 billion yuan, indicating a shift back to aggressive investment strategies [9] - The company has announced plans to invest 380 billion yuan over the next three years in cloud and AI infrastructure, marking a return to a more proactive operational stance [9] Group 2: Operational Improvements - Alibaba's operational focus has shifted from expansion to efficiency improvement, including asset disposals and optimizing core business models [6][9] - The launch of the "full-site promotion" product has significantly improved the monetization rate of Taobao, which had been lagging behind competitors like Pinduoduo [10][15] - In Q1 of 2025, Taobao's customer management revenue grew by 12% year-on-year, reaching 71.1 billion yuan, driven by the success of the full-site promotion [15] Group 3: Future Outlook - The revival path for Alibaba can be segmented into three phases: 2023-2024 focused on efficiency improvement, mid-2024 to Q1 2025 preparing for renewed expansion, and post-Q2 2025 balancing expansion with efficiency [17]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the real estate industry is "Outperform the Market" (maintained) [2][18]. Core Viewpoints - The recent policy changes in Xinyang regarding the sale of existing homes are expected to significantly impact the industry, particularly by reducing the return on invested capital (ROIC) for real estate companies [3][10]. - The shift from a pre-sale to a current sale model will reshape the business model of the industry from a "balance sheet business" to a "profit and loss statement business" [10][13]. - While short-term adjustments are anticipated due to the policy changes, the long-term outlook remains optimistic as the industry transitions to a more sustainable financial model [13]. Summary by Sections Policy Changes - On May 13, Xinyang's housing authority announced measures to strengthen the management of pre-sale housing, including that new projects can only be sold after the main structure is completed, and all new land acquisitions must be sold as existing homes [3]. Financial Impact - The introduction of the current sale system is expected to lead to a significant decline in ROIC, from 12.4% to 2.9%, indicating a reduced attractiveness of the real estate business [7][9]. - The analysis suggests that if pre-sales are eliminated, companies will face either a contraction in their balance sheets or increased interest expenses, leading to a longer investment recovery period and a significant drop in internal rate of return (IRR) [4][9]. Long-term Outlook - The long-term effects of the current sale system will likely result in an increase in the required profit margins for land acquisitions, as companies can no longer rely on quick turnover to maintain high ROIC [10]. - The overall industry profit margins are expected to rise, leading to a shift towards a more stable financial structure characterized by moderate leverage and profitability [10][13]. Market Response - The report anticipates that the market will initially react negatively to the policy changes, but in the medium to long term, the transition to a current sale model will stabilize housing prices and improve the industry's valuation metrics [13][11].

Core Viewpoint - Union Pacific remains a strong investment opportunity despite trade tensions, showcasing resilience through solid earnings and a well-rounded dividend strategy [2][15][16] Financial Performance - In Q1 2025, Union Pacific reported a 4% increase in freight revenues, but overall operating revenues remained flat due to a 15% fuel surcharge [4] - Diluted earnings per share (EPS) increased by less than 1% in the first quarter, indicating the need for improved performance to meet annual targets [7] - The company expects earnings per share to align with a three-year compound annual growth rate target of high single to low double digits [7] Revenue Breakdown - Freight revenue is categorized into three segments: bulk, industrial, and premium, each contributing approximately one-third to total freight revenue [4] - In Q1, bulk revenue rose by 1%, industrial revenue fell by 1%, and premium revenue increased by 5% [5] Market Outlook - Management expressed optimism for the automotive market and domestic intermodal growth, but noted vulnerabilities due to tariff uncertainties [6] - Expectations include lower volumes in food and beverage, petroleum, automotive, and international intermodal, while anticipating growth in grain products and industrial chemicals [6] Competitive Advantages - Union Pacific benefits from a diversified product mix and low operating costs, maintaining industry-leading operating efficiency and return on invested capital (ROIC) [8] - The company has sustained high operating margins of 30% to 40% and a ROIC around 14% over the past decade [9] Capital Return Program - In Q1, Union Pacific paid $804 million in dividends and spent $1.42 billion on stock repurchases, with plans for a total of $4 billion to $4.5 billion in buybacks for the year [12] - The company maintains a sub-50% payout ratio, allowing for significant buybacks without straining its financial position [13] Investment Appeal - Union Pacific's stock price has remained stagnant, resulting in a dividend yield of 2.5% and a price-to-earnings ratio below 20, indicating good value [14] - The company is viewed as a reliable option for passive income investors, capable of managing tariff-related costs effectively [15][16]

Group 1: Yili Co., Ltd. (伊利股份) - Business Quality: In 2024, Yili's revenue is projected to be 115.8 billion, a decrease of 8% year-on-year, with a net profit of 6.011 billion, down 40% year-on-year [2][3] - Cost Pressure: Sales expenses reached 21.98 billion, accounting for 19% of revenue, significantly higher than R&D expenses of 870 million, leading to a net profit margin of only 7.33% [3][4] - Competitive Advantage: ROIC decreased from 9.5% in 2023 to 7%, indicating that Yili's competitive edge lies in channel management rather than product innovation [4] - Valuation Concerns: Current PE ratio is 22.5 based on 2024 net profit, with a warning that the dairy industry growth has slowed to single digits and high sales expense ratios may hinder profit growth [5] Group 2: Midea Group (美的集团) - Business Quality: In 2024, Midea's revenue is expected to be 409.1 billion, a 9.5% increase year-on-year, with a net profit of 38.5 billion, up 14.3% year-on-year [9][10] - Cost Structure: Sales expenses of 38.75 billion account for 9.5% of revenue, which is 2.4 times higher than R&D expenses of 16.23 billion, raising questions about the sustainability of marketing-driven growth [10][11] - Growth Acceleration: In Q1 2025, revenue surged to 128.4 billion, a 20.6% increase year-on-year, with net profit rising 38% [12] - Valuation Analysis: Current PE ratio is approximately 14.5 based on 2024 net profit, with concerns about declining ROIC and potential risks from overseas revenue exposure [14] Group 3: Kweichow Moutai (贵州茅台) - Business Quality: Moutai's revenue grew by 10.54% and profit by 11.56% in Q1, showcasing its strong market position with a high gross margin of 91.93% and net margin of 52.27% [18][19] - Competitive Advantage: Moutai maintains a healthy inventory level of 0.5 months, significantly lower than competitors, indicating strong pricing power and market demand [19] - Valuation Insights: Current valuation based on a projected net profit of 93.485 billion in 2025 suggests a PE ratio of around 20, which is considered reasonable given its ability to outperform inflation [20] - Extreme Scenario Analysis: Moutai's pricing power allows it to maintain positive revenue growth even in adverse market conditions, supported by strong cash flow [21]

Financial Performance - The company reported total revenue of 290 million yuan for Q1 2025, a decrease of 8.04% year-on-year [1] - The net profit attributable to shareholders was 53.26 million yuan, down 47.04% compared to the same period last year [1] - The gross margin was 49.41%, reflecting a decline of 5.43% year-on-year, while the net profit margin dropped to 18.62%, down 42.21% [1] - Total expenses (selling, administrative, and financial) amounted to 55.56 million yuan, representing 19.17% of total revenue, an increase of 94.99% year-on-year [1] - Earnings per share decreased to 0.42 yuan, a decline of 47.04% year-on-year [1] Financial Ratios and Metrics - The company's return on invested capital (ROIC) was 11.55%, indicating average capital returns [3] - The net profit margin for the previous year was 25.2%, suggesting high added value for products or services [3] - The company has a healthy cash asset position, with a significant amount of cash on hand [3] - The ratio of accounts receivable to profit reached 80.67%, indicating a need for attention in accounts receivable management [3] Shareholder Information - The company has raised a total of 1.098 billion yuan since its listing and has distributed 489 million yuan in dividends, resulting in a dividend-to-financing ratio of 0.45 [3] - The estimated dividend yield is 5.23% [3] - The largest fund holding shares in the company is the Industrial Bank Specialized New Mixed A Fund, which has increased its holdings to 190,200 shares [3]

| 报告日期 机构简称 研究员 | | 近三年业绩 | 研报数 覆盖时长 | | | 2024预测 | 2025预测 | | 2026预测 | 目标价 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | 预测准确度 | | | | 净利润（元） | 净利润（元） | | 净利润（元） | (元) | | 2024-11-11 东北证券 王凤华 | | 78.30% | 2 | 未満1年 | 1.69亿 | | | 2.271Z | 2.9067 | | | 2024-10-28 中航证券 王青青 | | | | | | 1.61亿 | | 1.97亿 | 2.371Z | | | 2024-10-27 华金证券 | 李東 | | | | | 1.72亿 | | 2.27 亿 | 3.05 Z | | 本次财报公布的各项数据指标表现尚佳。其中，毛利率36.35%，同比减9.36%，净利率18.26%，同比增 3.14%，销售费用、管理费用、财务费用总计7558.26万元，三费占营收比7.87%，同比增0.36%， ...